Service Plays Monday 5/18/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 06:37 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #1

#4 Temple City Darlin	Stalker was a good 2nd to the chalk last time, when the latter got loose and wired, which seems like a tough ask with all the speed today; call to post the mild surprise.
#3 Holiday Clover	Aforementioned favorite made it two in a row on the lead last time, and is the best of the speed here, but there's plenty of it on both sides; may come up wanting late.
#5 Quick Sense	Impressive last-out winner faces tougher here and is another who may get caught up in the pace, though she did well to draw outside a lot of it; dangerous if she can settle.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that should really help the chances of the 4, who didn't get a fair go of it last time, as the 3 walked on the lead, but the circumstances seem a lot different here, so play her to win and place, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since she looks primed to reverse the decision, especially since 'Clover likely won't get a free pass on the engine today.

Fonner Park - Race #2

#2 Zibby Too	Expected heavy favorite has been knocking at the door of late, meets a very weak crew, and still has plenty of upside off just five lifetime starts; imposing.
#8 Wildfire Sis	Price player really woke up last time when a distant 3rd to the pick, when she showed a lot more speed, which would help her chances here; second-best.
#4 Miss Justice	Lifetime maiden was 4th behind the top pair last time, so why she's the ML second-choice is a real guess, and a real reason to play against; underneath only.
Race Summary	Swing hard with an aggressive win and place bet on the 2 if you sniff that 2-1 ML, as she looks more like even-money, but the real value comes in the early Pk5, and to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since you can single her, which will allow for more coverage in the deeper surrounding legs, as she looks long gone in this one.

Fonner Park - Race #6

#6 Banker Nita	Rousing MCL winner settled then rolled home to break through in what was her first start here after running at OP, and sure, she steps up today, but the expected aggressive pace really suits her style, as she'll be winding up off the turn; looks good right back.
#7 Gypsy Wind Jeanne	Pace presser drew off for a romping MCL win last time, in also what was her local bow after running at OP, so she's a lot like the pick, but she still may get softened up by the inside speed, which will hurt her chances in the lane; scary, but second-best.
#2 Dixie Cat	Stiff ML favorite looked good wiring at short odds last time to also break her maiden in her local bow, but the waters are a lot deeper here while facing winners, and the 7 will be pressing her from the outside the entire way; taking a strong stand against on top.
Race Summary	We have three recent maiden breakers stepping up, and while there's no doubt the winner should come from among them, it's the pick who is by far the most appealing, since the 2 and 7 seem destined to set it up for her, so make an aggressive win and place bet at 5-2 or better, and get some built-in value as well by keying her in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she's the one who seems the best situated to handle the rise, since she can sit back and let her two main rivals set it up for her late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 06:38 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #3

#7 Southgate	Was just favored with better last time out, and this group shouldn't pose a ton of problems for him if he can produce his typical race here.
#1 Centergee	Tactical type should get another good trip, but the waters get much deeper this time around on the step up to face winners. Not impossible, but I'd want better than the 6/1 ML price to find out.
#9 Big Game Hunter	Does really reliable work on the main track, and that should keep him in the mix with this bunch. His ceiling is high enough to win this if he brings his very best stuff.
Race Summary	Southgate should be tough if he's able to bring something similar to his last one with stakes company, and the prices on the other logical players may not be really fair given their realistic chances to win.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #6

#9 Momma's Baby Boy	Reliable finisher steps up off a good effort last time out, and he figures to get a pretty good run of things while spying the splits.
#4 Drifting West	Makes sense on class and form, but I had a tough time getting beyond how infrequently he passes horses. He should be in the mix early, but things really have to fall his way for him to win this, and the price likely won't reflect that.
#2 Got Mojo	Probably needs more pace than he's going to get here, but he occasionally finishes with some energy, and that might be enough to land him a small piece underneath at a big number.
Race Summary	Momma's Baby Boy will need his best stuff as he climbs up the class ladder, but he's a reliable type who can settle nicely off the splits and rally when asked. Lots to like.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#9 She's Shiney	She doesn't always show up, but she's a real danger to this bunch if she brings her best stuff here. The price figures to be right to find out if she can bring her A-game in a spot where the race shape flatters her.
#2 Seeing Double	Price player doesn't seem impossible if an honest pace develops, as she has done some of her best work when a bit outrun early and launching one big rally late.
#6 Keena	Versatile type can adapt to however this race unfolds, and she ran a really good one when returning to this barn last time out.
Race Summary	She's Shiney might be able to get a good run of things from just off the splits while stretching out, and her best game stacks up really well with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 06:38 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Fonner Park - Race #4

#2 Lost Key	Held 2nd vs. optional claimers last out and has faced some decent company; has a good late move and can get a good pace setup.
#1 Wacca Wacca Wacca	Lost a three-horse photo two back and then threw a clunker last out; 3 of 5 local starts this year have been good.
#5 Alexandrias Throne	Lost a heartbreak she came from off the pace and missed by a head; can be rolling late.
Race Summary	Lost Key woke up with a solid 2nd last out after facing some stout company on occasion; gets a good pace setup.

Fonner Park - Race #5

#2 Smokin B	Ran on well for 3rd and looks ready to stretch for the 1st time since January; high-percentage jockey Manrrique should hep.
#5 Spunky Kitten	Buried N2L foes by 10 last time out and has won 2 of 5 here this season; capable of a strong close.
#8 Big Egypt	Closed with a rush and won going away last out; can be tough on this step up in conditions.
Race Summary	Smokin B has come up empty in sprints and was 2nd the last time he went a mile; can be in the mix from the outset.

Fonner Park - Race #8

#2 Country Club Diner	Responded to hot-riding Arrieta with a close 3rd going 4F last out; stretch back out to 6F and can get his 1st win in two years.
#10 Banjo Bill	Turns back in distance after weakened in his last two; can finish well vs. these.
#9 Brett's Boy	Closed well for 2nd going 6.5F last out and has enough speed to gain a good position early; a player in the exotics.
Race Summary	Country Club Diner woke up with a good effort last time and continued improvement can make him a strong player.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 09:05 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fonner Park

Fonner Park - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5)
Maiden Claiming $10,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 47 • Purse: $4,100 • Post: 4:54P
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. PRINCE OLAF is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * GO CHIVA GO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JO JOGOTTAGO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. AWESOME MAX: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in a verage Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. PRINCE OLAF: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs.
6	GO CHIVA GO	4/1	9/2
1	JOJOGOTTAGO	6/1	6/1
7	AWESOME MAX	5/2	6/1
4	PRINCE OLAF	10/1	7/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	PRINCE OLAF	4	10/1	Front-runner	48	40	60.8	35.8	23.8
7	AWESOME MAX	7	5/2	Stalker	57	47	51.2	50.2	46.2
1	JOJOGOTTAGO	1	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	62	54	32.8	40.2	30.2
5	CLASSY MAGIC	5	12/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	31.2	37.5	29.0
6	GO CHIVA GO	6	4/1	Alternator/Trailer	61	65	40.0	47.0	40.0
9	TALK BIG MONEY	9	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	50	35	34.1	37.3	27.8
2	TEXAS WITT	2	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	64	64	46.4	32.0	23.5
3	R DEJA VOO	3	25/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	41.3	9.6	0.0
8	BEHOLD DE EROS	8	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	51	33	30.6	23.4	5.4
10	WILD PAINT	10	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	44	7.8	30.2	15.7

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 09:06 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fonner Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $3700 Class Rating: 67

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 DOROTHE MARIE 4/1
# 6 IMA DANGER 15/1
# 10 DISTINCT APPROVAL 8/1

DOROTHE MARIE has a competitive shot to take this race. Has run very well when racing a dirt sprint race. This mare with Arrieta in the saddle makes her a key contender. Don't overlook this mare in your propositions - very dangerous with Arrieta aboard. DISTINCT APPROVAL - Surely will improve with switch in blinkers (going on) today. Decent pick to take this race going in a dirt sprint.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 09:06 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Will Rogers Downs - Race #4 - Post: 2:45pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,550 Class Rating: 47

Rating:

#9 LUCKY ROAD (ML=8/1)
#3 OKIE ZIPIT (ML=10/1)

LUCKY ROAD - A big drop in class rating points from her May 4th race at Will Rogers Downs. Based on that data point, I will give this one the edge. The ROI when Tohill and Ashauer get together is fantastic. This horse picks up a lot of money per start. I believe she will add to the lifetime total right here. OKIE ZIPIT - Medina is right back for another race today after riding on board this equine for the 1st attempt on Apr 1st and ought to know the ropes to this one a little better.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 LAGOON FALLS (ML=3/1), #2 SHE SINGLED ME UP (ML=7/2), #8 PROPHETESS WISDOM (ML=4/1),

LAGOON FALLS - Doesn't seem to have enough good qualities to justify the value. SHE SINGLED ME UP - No value on this thoroughbred at the likely odds of 7/2. PROPHETESS WISDOM - In all probability won't make much of a mark this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 LUCKY ROAD is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 09:06 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 9 - Stakes - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $55000 Class Rating: 88

MORE THAN EVEN S. - FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BRED FILLIES AND MARES, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. NOMINATIONS CLOSE THURSDAY, MAY 7, 2020. NO NOMINATION FEE. $250 TO PASS THE ENTRY BOX. STARTERS TO PAY ADDITIONAL $250 WITH $55,000 GUARANTEED - $20,000 FROM WRD PURSE ACCOUNT, $25,000 FROM TRAO $5,000 FROM OKLAHOMA-BRED PROGRAM AND

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 KEENA 10/1
# 1 COUNTRY DAISY 4/1
# 10 LADY ORCHID 8/1

I think KEENA is a respectable choice especially at a such a nice price. Eikleberry's ROI over the last 30 days automatically makes this horse a strong contender. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figs in dirt route races make this equine a solid choice. Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this mare. COUNTRY DAISY - With a +10 return on investment, this jock and handler combo has produced formidable profits lately for risk takers. Ashford and Tohill have won 15 percent of their races giving this horse a quite good chance. LADY ORCHID - Bravo has this filly racing well and is a very good pick based on the respectable speed figures earned in route races as of late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-18-2020, 04:25 PM

Paul Leiner

Will Rogers Downs Picks 5/18

Mon May 18, 2020 8:28 am
Nothing cashed yesterday at Churchill Downs. Today I have three from Will Rogers including a stakes race in the 9th. Goodluck.

Will Rogers Race 3
#9 Big Game Hunter $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 9-7-3

Will Rogers Race 8
#5 My Legacy $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-8-11

Will Rogers Race 9
#5 Spring Steen $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 5-7-11

Service Plays Monday 5/18/20

Service Plays Monday 5/18/20

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