Service Plays Wednesday 5/20/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-19-2020, 06:18 PM

Wednesday, May 20: Happy Valley (Hong Kong) Picks

May 18, 2020

From Hong Kong Jockey Club Racing Analyst, Declan Schuster

HAPPY VALLEY SELECTIONS
Wednesday, May 20, 2020
First Post: 6:45AM ET

Race 1: #8 Farm Bumper, #6 Gintoki, #4 Management Supreme, #2 Happy Good Guys
Race 2: #5 Dragon Commander, #9 Dionysus Collin, #7 Salto Olimpico, #3 Shadow Breaker
Race 3: #2 Amazing Luck, #6 Lightning Steed, #3 Focus, #5 Blooming Spirit
Race 4: #5 Flying Genius, #2 Explosive Witness, #3 Be Ready, #6 Very Sweet Orange
Race 5: #6 Golden Glory, #1 Ares, #3 Harmony N Home, #8 Lucky Quality
Race 6: #2 Simply Fluke, #6 Destine Jewellery, #4 Jade Phoenix, #8 Interstellar
Race 7: #1 Magnificent, #11 Chairman Lo, #12 Nordic Warrior, #3 Green Reign
Race 8: #2 Golden Dash, #7 California Rad, #6 Ping Hai Galaxy, #5 Beauty Spark
Race 9: #2 Shining Ace, #1 Amazing Star, #7 Shining Gem, #11 Winning Method

Race 1: Shan Pui River Handicap (3rd Section) (6:45AM ET)

#8 Farm Bumper won well three starts ago before finishing runner-up in both of his most recent two outings. He’s racing well and if he’s continued to hold his condition then it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him rewarded with another win. #6 Gintoki gets the services of Zac Purton now after flashing home for a close-up fourth at his latest. He might be ready to piece it all together now having had 13 runs to acclimatise after arriving from Australia where he was a four-time winner. #2 Happy Good Guys has done well this campaign as a two-time winner. He can figure with the right run from the good draw.

Race 2: Tan Shan River Handicap (7:15AM ET)

#5 Dragon Commander hasn’t been too far away on occasions this term and stepping back in trip here might be just what he needs to finally go on with it. He’s done enough racing this term to suggest that the penny was going to drop soon and with conditions to suit here, it might just be his time. #9 Dionysus Collin is unlucky not to have already won this campaign having placed on six different occasions. Still, he’s honest and the booking of Zac Purton warrants respect. #7 Salto Olimpico gets the services of Joao Moreira here after turning his form around last start to finish third. This is suitable. #3 Shadow Breaker made all at 28/1 last time out. The awkward draw here makes life hard but no doubt he’ll be trying to attempt the same again.

Race 3: Tai Shing Stream Handicap (7:45AM ET)

The last time Zac Purton rode #2 Amazing Luck the horse won narrowly over this course and distance and now, back in Class 4 with the Australian ace hopping up, he is shaping up as the one they all have to beat. #6 Lightning Steed turned in an impressive performance last start to grab fourth. This is suitable from the soft gate with Joao Moreira up. #3 Focus is racing well and his last two starts have shown this, and also, he is a two-time winner already this term. He can figure with the right run from gate three. #5 Blooming Spirit is a two-time winner this season and although this is a tough contest, he is in-form and the soft gate should afford him every chance.

Race 4: Kam Tin River Handicap (8:15AM ET)

#5 Flying Genius is looking to snap a run of outs having finished second in three out of his last four outings. Still, he’s racing in supreme form and has taken a clear liking to this course and distance. #2 Explosive Witness is nearing his first Hong Kong win. He’s shown steady improvement with each run and this is suitable, though, they will run along at a reasonable pace here. #3 Be Ready has gone close on a number of occasions. He’s a talent on the rise and although this is difficult, he does still rate strongly. #6 Very Sweet Orange is the likely leader of this and does get a handy claim off Jack Wong.

Race 5: Shan Pui River Handicap (1st Section) (8:45AM ET)

#6 Golden Glory mixes his form but does have the ability and race experience to win a contest such as this. Key to his chances is gate three, which should see him get a soft run throughout and from there, get every opportunity to win. #1 Ares won impressively at only his second start two back and since then, finished runner-up over this course and distance. Zac Purton sticks aboard and this contest is well within his grasp. #3 Harmony N Home gets seven pounds off thanks to Alfred Chan’s claim and if he can overcome the wide gate, then, he won’t be too far away. #8 Lucky Quality is lightly raced and he has shown a reasonable amount of ability. He can figure from gate two under the in-form Karis Teetan.

Race 6: Shan Pui River Handicap (2nd Section) (9:15AM ET)

#2 Simply Fluke is searching for a hat-trick of wins since switching stables to the Douglas Whyte yard where he is unbeaten. Again, he’s been cruelled by the wide gate but he has overcome them before and this contest appears no different, especially as he remains in Class 4. #6 Destine Jewellery won well two starts ago and since then has held his condition well. The draw isn’t half bad and with the right run he can figure. #4 Jade Phoenix has gone close on a number of occasions across his short five-start career. He’s drawn well and it’s only a matter of time before he does break through. #8 Interstellar turned his form around last start to grab second. He can figure with that run under his belt.

Race 7: Nam Chung River Handicap (9:45AM ET)

#1 Magnificent has placed in his last two and with those two performances under his belt, does look ready to bounce back to the winner’s stall. #11 Chairman Lo got his deserved win two starts ago before finishing a close-up fifth at his latest. He has the wide gate to contend with but this is a more than suitable contest for him. #12 Nordic Warrior gets in light as the bottom weight. He’s drawn well and is capable of testing these. #3 Green Reign has gone close on a number of occasions. He’s drawn awkwardly which makes life difficult but does have the ability to offset this, though, it may not be enough to win.

Race 8: Lam Tsuen River Handicap (10:15AM ET)

#2 Golden Dash returned from a lengthy spell first-up to finish a close second, and since then followed that run with a competitive fourth. He’s returned in excellent order and now with Zac Purton going aboard, rates as the one to beat. #7 California Rad is looking for his third consecutive win. He has the wide gate to contend with but as a Class 3 winner already, he is proven in this grade. #6 Ping Hai Galaxy rarely runs a bad race and did win over this course and distance earlier this season at 159/1. He can figure. #5 Beauty Spark’s consistency was rewarded with a win two starts ago. The wide gate makes life hard but he bears close watching.

Race 9: Ho Chung River Handicap (10:50AM ET)

#2 Shining Ace has taken his racing to a new level this term with three wins and seven minor placings to his name. He’s proven himself to be a versatile customer at both Sha Tin and the city circuit and from the inside gate, with Joao Moreira up, he could take a power of beating again. #1 Amazing Star is a winner of four from five this season. He’s now rated 100 which is impressive and he does appear to have another win under his belt, though, may soon be destined for Group racing as his rating continues to rise. #7 Shining Gem is looking for back-to-back wins. He’s a three-time winner this term and another success here, would not surprise. #11 Winning Method is next in line with next to no weight on his back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 06:55 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #3

#6 Analyzeyourvision	Major player should like the cutback to a mile, seems to have a bit more tactical speed than the ML favorite, has more upside, and should be a better price as well; lots to like from the pick.
#3 Cask	Aforementioned ML favorite drops again to find his level, and this could be it, but there's no value here, his lack of speed is a concern, and the losses (6) are starting to pile up; second-best.
#5 Hellfire Bob	MSW dropper has run well when in for a tag on the turf, so this move makes sense, but he also didn't fire at all last time, which says he may not bee the same horse either; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 6 but they will bet the 3 hard, which means that 5-2 ML might stick on the 6, and that would be a fair value in a race with few alternatives, and a favorite who isn't exactly a stretch dynamo, so play the pick aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a lot of budget players will be doing the same with the chalk, which means a win by 'Vision would knock out a lot of tickets from both sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #4

#3 Palaces Diamond	Potts charge kept her place in 4th the entire way on debut, in an encouraging effort, has a world of upside and should only move forward off that tightener, and will offer a hint of value as well, in a field there for the taking; look out.
#7 Sense a Million	The horse to beat invades after facing better at GP and holding her own, and now goes into a sharp Sweezey barn that is 15% with it's newcomers, and this miss drew a lot better than lat time when a distant 4th; should be a handful.
#2 La Wapa	Logical sort was a solid 2nd at the level last time in her return to the main track, and that run would get her a piece here, but the top pair seem a bit better, and have more room to improve, so she needs to hurry; mixed signals here.
Race Summary	The pick really tipped her hand on debut, as that was an effort that showed she can run and one she can build off of as well, so play her in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is a wide open race, and getting home a $10 winner will likely play longer in both sequences.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9

#2 Glacier Park	Class dropper ran on late while wide the entire way in her local and turf debut, and first start for Rarich too, can build off that run, drew well, and will be a decent price too; can surprise.
#5 Jangada	ML favorite was actually 2 1/2 lengths behind the pick after dueling early last time, so she did run well, but at 2-1 she's a big underlay, with no margin for error either; trying to beat on top.
#3 Puerto Vars	Intriguing longshot didn't run an inch on the dirt off the break last time but had some good MSW form on the Tapeta at PID, which says she might take to the turf; worth an exotics look.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML on the pick would be a big overlay, as she is as good as anyone here and has every right to improve off a start that had a lot of firsts to it, so play her in all the slots, and especially to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since she won't have to improve much to win this, even though that's exactly what's likely to happen here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Will Rogers Downs - Race #5

#2 Hunka Burning Love	Aired last time out at this trip and figures to control the tempo up top again with this bunch. This is a decent cast he's meeting here, so he can't afford a big step back.
#7 Miltontown	Price should be better this time around after offering 9/5 last time out, and he has enough tactical pace to work out a trip from the outside.
#4 Chris and Dave	Actually liked him a bit in that Oaklawn allowance where he never factored, but he's capable of something better than that, and he can share with these if he can bounce back.
Race Summary	Hunka Burning Love looks tough here, especially with another potentially sweet race shape waiting for him up top. If nobody serves as the first one to bother him, he may be long gone again.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #9

#6 Word to the Wise	Slight edge in a pretty tough race, but he should get a pretty good run behind the splits. He'll be in touch throughout, and perhaps he can sustain his bid a bit better this time around.
#3 Wil of Fortune	Wouldn't surprise at all if this guy were to make a break for it from the start along with the rail runner and dare the rest of these to catch him. Not impossible on the hike.
#9 Criminal	Two-back run would almost certainly do the trick here, but it's a question of whether he's going to bounce all the way back to that after getting left behind by Welder and company last out.
Race Summary	Word to the Wise may be a fair price with a pretty good spying trip waiting for him today. He opened a big lead last out and coughed it up, but with the run of the race likely in store for him, he'll get every chance to kick on again.

Will Rogers Downs - Race #10

#3 Rocketringo	Does his best work when he's allowed to find a lead without too much pressure, and though there are some other forward players in here, he is likely quickest early and might try to win the break and discourage the chasing types.
#4 Jrock	Price player occasionally runs a big one, and his best stuff would probably be good enough to land a big piece of this.
#9 Lookie Loo	Finisher might wind up with too much to do, but his best efforts have come when settling far off sprint paces and launching one, long bid.
Race Summary	Rocketringo tends to be all or nothing, but he has faced some decent groups so far this meet and might be best of the pace players. He's plenty attractive at something like 9/2.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 06:56 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #1

#9 Meilleur	Lost by a neck the last time he was at this distance and rider Lopez has a good chance to get her on the front end; very dangerous with a clear early lead.
#3 Indian Gulch	Improved to 4th last time, indicating he's attempting to round back into good form; has the advantage of having been this distance several times on dirt this year.
#1 The Kahn	Can be fairly close to the lead, and if no one else makes a move, he's happy to take it; rallied going shorter last time and has been in decent form in his last three.
Race Summary	Meilleur will probably sent hard to get the lead and will be very tough once he gets there; his last is a throw out at a shorter distance.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #5

#1 Relishment	Has been fairly close going up against high levels of runners and takes a big drop that should get his home.
#6 Yei Yei	Has been in the mix much of the time at this level and stretching out to 7F could put him in front early.
#12 Sacco and Vanzetti	Took the lead and then was caught late time out; is back at the same lead and can be a forward factor throughout.
Race Summary	Relishment can benefit from having been against much tougher and should be able to handle this group on the class drop.

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #6

#1 Rough Night	Was a clear winner last out and takes a step back up in class; Mena fits him well.
#7 Last Promise	Has the speed to be right there from the start and has been in tougher spots; a factor on the front end.
#8 No Cents Left	Was 2nd two back and can benefit from a good pace; could be a strong player late in the game.
Race Summary	Rough Night drops in class for a convincing win and will be a close-up factor in his return to this level; can mix it up with these.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 09:11 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Will Rogers Downs

Will Rogers Downs - Race 2	Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50) / Superfecta (.10) / Daily Double Pick 3 (.50) (Races 2-3-4) / Pick 4 (.50) (Races 2-5)
Claiming $7,500 • 1 Mile • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $9,350 • Post: 1:45P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $7,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. JOHN ALLEN is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * JOHN ALLEN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BERNARDIAN: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALOO GHOST: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	JOHN ALLEN	8/1	5/2
8	BERNARDIAN	6/1	8/1
10	ALOO GHOST	7/2	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	JOHN ALLEN	4	8/1	Front-runner	80	79	79.4	75.0	68.0
8	BERNARDIAN	8	6/1	Front-runner	75	74	77.0	58.8	48.8
3	ATOMIC CANDY	3	12/1	Stalker	84	64	65.4	56.3	45.8
5	DE BIRD IS DA WORD	5	8/1	Stalker	80	67	60.2	68.6	60.1
7	PROUD MOMENTS	7	15/1	Stalker	73	72	55.4	68.0	55.5
1	NACOGDOCHES	1	3/1	Trailer	87	86	49.3	57.8	52.3
10	ALOO GHOST	10	7/2	Trailer	81	80	42.0	70.2	65.2
2	MORO COMPASS	2	20/1	Trailer	70	60	39.2	55.0	35.5
9	SECOND GUESS	9	20/1	Trailer	73	64	36.8	65.4	51.9
6	POP LIFE	6	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	78	74	43.4	51.6	36.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 09:11 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Tampa Bay Downs - Race #9 - Post: 5:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,500 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#4 MORO DRAMA (ML=8/1)
#2 GLACIER PARK (ML=5/1)
#10 AMANGALLA (ML=5/2)

MORO DRAMA - Kielty drops him down to this class. You don't need too much more handicapping knowledge to believe this animal has a darn good chance at this level. Gets help from Kielty with the addition of Lasix. GLACIER PARK - Rider jumped on this gelding's back for the first ride on May 3rd. Should 'know' the horse even better in today's contest. This thoroughbred may have too much power on the turf for the rest of the field. Coming out of the turn for home, he could put these away. AMANGALLA - With no past performances, one of the variables I look at are trainer stats, and Weaver has a +56 pct ROI rate with first-time-starters. The recent bullet 38.3 work should put this gelding on track for today's outing. I always like to see a horse getting Lasix for the 1st time. Weaver adds it on this one today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 JANGADA (ML=2/1), #1 DRILL BIT (ML=6/1), #11 WHEELBARRELBROTHRS (ML=8/1),

JANGADA - Didn't end up on the board on April 4th at Tampa Bay Downs. Followed it up with another lackluster try. DRILL BIT - Hasn't been close to winning at all lately. WHEELBARRELBROTHRS - In the last affair this mount finished seventh. Doesn't bode well for his chances this time out. Disappointing speed fig last out at Tampa Bay Downs at 1 1/8 miles. Don't believe this questionable contender will improve too much in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#4 MORO DRAMA to win at post-time odds of 3/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [2,4,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 10 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $8250 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED AT THE CURRENT RACE MEET AND DID NOT FINISH 1ST, 2ND OR 3RD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 10 FAYETTE WARRIOR 2/1
# 9 LOOKIE LOO 4/1
# 12 HOT'N NOTTY 15/1

FAYETTE WARRIOR looks to be a quite good contender. He has decent class ratings, averaging 92, and has to be considered in here. Pruitt has this colt racing well and is a quite good selection based on the quite good Equibase Speed Figures earned in sprint races lately. With Wethey getting the mount, watch out for this animal. LOOKIE LOO - Ran a strong last race. This handler has the best return on investment in this field with entries moving at this distance and surface. HOT'N NOTTY - Has to be given a shot against this group of horses displaying very good figures recently and an average speed figure of 78 under similar conditions. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Diodoro running at this distance are the strongest in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 09:12 AM

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Tampa Bay Downs

05/20/20, TAM, Race 7, 4.00 ET
05/20/20,TAM,7,7F [Dirt] 1:20:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $10,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000, For Each $1,000 To $8,000 1 lb. (Registered Florida Breds Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	11	Foot Rub Love	6-1	Santos A	Barron Rory M.	S	45.71	1.16/$1
098.66	7	Mi Tia Regis	10-1	Coa K J	Reardon M. C.	F	45.71	1.16/$1
097.45	10	Upper Charlize Ds	4-1	Wales G	Dobber Arnoud W.		45.71	1.16/$1
097.36	2	Maidu	3-1	Garcia J A	Escobar Alison	EC	45.71	1.16/$1
097.27	9	Action Absolute Ds	10-1	Alencar W	Dobber Arnoud W.	W	45.71	1.16/$1
096.76	12	Grandmary(b-)	9/2	Allen. Jr. R D	Slivka Sandra L.		45.71	1.16/$1
096.71	8	Mystic Moon	8-1	Hernandez O	Lopez Bernardo G.	T	50.00	1.60/$1
095.83	5	Flatout Screaming(b+)	15-1	Mena R	Galvan Baltazar		45.71	1.16/$1
095.54	1	Let's Go Luna(b-)	30-1	Batista J A	Minguet Ramon	J	47.37	1.11/$1
095.16	4	Crack of Dawn	20-1	Mejia T B	Ferraro M. Anthony	L	45.71	1.16/$1
093.12	3	Lady Denisse	30-1	Moreno A	Machado. Jr. Francisco		45.71	1.16/$1
092.63	6	Icy Sweet	30-1	Mendez K	Barron Rory M.		45.71	1.16/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.96, ROI 0.86/$1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 05-20-2020, 12:01 PM

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks 5/20

Wed May 20, 2020 8:08 am
Thunder Road wins the 4th at Will Rogers but we missed the other two races. Today I have two from Tampa. Goodluck.

Tampa Bay Race 1
#2 Karma King $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-6-8

Tampa Bay Race 8
#6 Zaino Boys $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 6-8-1

Service Plays Wednesday 5/20/20

Service Plays Wednesday 5/20/20

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