Service Plays Saturday 5/23/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

05/23/20, CD, Race 11, 6.16 ET
05/23/20,CD,11,1M [Turf] 1:33:04 STAKES. War Chant Stakes. Purse $100,000. FOR THREE YEARS OLDS.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	9	Smooth Like Strait	5-1	Velazquez J R	McCarthy Michael W.	T	37.93	1.80/$1
099.27	6	Hieronymus	9/2	Bridgmohan S	Cox Brad H.		37.93	1.80/$1
099.15	5	Field Pass	4-1	Ortiz J L	Maker Michael J.		37.93	1.80/$1
099.05	3	Island Commish	12-1	Lopez P	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.		37.93	1.80/$1
098.80	4	Vanzzy	20-1	Carmouche K	Pino Michael V.	SW	37.93	1.80/$1
097.63	12	Pixelate	6-1	Rosario J	Stidham Michael		37.93	1.80/$1
097.37	13	Billy Batts	5-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		37.93	1.80/$1
097.12	10	Shared Sense	15-1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.		37.93	1.80/$1
095.88	1	South Bend	12-1	Leparoux J R	Hough Stanley M.		37.93	1.80/$1
095.57	7	Bama Breeze	30-1	Lanerie C J	Arnold. II George R.	FEC	37.93	1.80/$1
094.46	8	Liam's Pride	30-1	Cohen D	O'Neill Doug F.		31.71	1.24/$1
094.42	15	Natural Power (IRE)	15-1	Beschizza A	Casse Mark E.		37.93	1.80/$1
094.38	11	Street Ready	15-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.		37.93	1.80/$1
093.96	2	Bodecream	12-1	Parker D L	Pish Danny	J	37.93	1.80/$1
092.04	14	Fenwick Station(b+)	50-1	Gaffalione T	Kenneally Eddie		37.93	1.80/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 26.47, ROI 1.13/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	9	Smooth Like Strait	5-1	Velazquez J R	McCarthy Michael W.	T	34.48	1.07/$1
099.77	3	Island Commish	12-1	Lopez P	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	W	32.28	1.13/$1
098.34	5	Field Pass	4-1	Ortiz J L	Maker Michael J.		32.28	1.13/$1
098.10	1	South Bend	12-1	Leparoux J R	Hough Stanley M.		32.28	1.13/$1
097.93	12	Pixelate	6-1	Rosario J	Stidham Michael		32.28	1.13/$1
097.21	10	Shared Sense	15-1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.		40.00	1.48/$1
097.15	6	Hieronymus	9/2	Bridgmohan S	Cox Brad H.		32.28	1.13/$1
096.03	2	Bodecream	12-1	Parker D L	Pish Danny	J	32.28	1.13/$1
095.09	13	Billy Batts	5-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.		34.48	1.07/$1
094.56	4	Vanzzy	20-1	Carmouche K	Pino Michael V.	S	32.28	1.13/$1
094.31	14	Fenwick Station(b+)	50-1	Gaffalione T	Kenneally Eddie		34.48	1.07/$1
094.17	7	Bama Breeze	30-1	Lanerie C J	Arnold. II George R.	FEC	32.28	1.13/$1
093.99	15	Natural Power (IRE)	15-1	Beschizza A	Casse Mark E.		40.00	1.48/$1
091.11	8	Liam's Pride	30-1	Cohen D	O'Neill Doug F.		34.69	1.03/$1
090.93	11	Street Ready	15-1	Landeros C	Wilkes Ian R.		40.00	1.48/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.89, ROI 1.01/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

05/23/20, SA, Race 4, 2.07 PT
05/23/20,SA,4,1M [Dirt] 1:33:02 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000. FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming, Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	2	Tiz Wonderfully	5-1	Pereira T J	Cassidy James M.	SFL	37.41	1.52/$1
098.76	7	Tiz a Master	3-1	Fuentes R	Baltas Richard	TEW	37.41	1.52/$1
098.11	5	Perfect Ice Storm	4-1	Van Dyke D	Eurton Peter		33.33	1.23/$1
096.38	4	Scarlet Heat	5/2	Prat F	Blacker Dan	J	33.33	1.23/$1
095.67	6	Charmingslew	7/2	Rispoli U	French Neil		37.41	1.52/$1
094.76	3	Shanghai Barbie	12-1	Espinoza V	Desormeaux J. Keith		37.41	1.52/$1
094.08	1	Kristi's Tiger	10-1	Blanc B	Bell. II Thomas Ray	C	33.65	1.28/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 3.47/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Special - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#6 LUCKY PENGUIN (ML=3/1)
#2 SUAVE JUAN (ML=15/1)


LUCKY PENGUIN - A first time starter with this conditioner. Runco wins a 45 percent of the time in these here situations. The rider and conditioner combination here have a high win percentage when they team up. A solid handicapping angle is Lasix for the first time. Runco gives it to this one for this clash. SUAVE JUAN - This one could be an overlay in this field at M/L odds of 15/1. Finished fourth in last race at Charles Town but was close at the end.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DOCTOR MCCOY (ML=5/2), #7 SHAMELESS RISK (ML=7/2), #3 BOP MARLEY (ML=4/1),

DOCTOR MCCOY - This morning-line favorite ran on March 13th and hasn't had a drill since. Somewhat easily forgotten speed figure last time out at Laurel at 6 furlongs. Don't believe this entrant will improve too much in today's race. SHAMELESS RISK - Doesn't look to have enough positive aspects to justify the price. BOP MARLEY - This questionable contender will likely be way back as this field crosses the wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 LUCKY PENGUIN to win at post-time odds of 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 5/23/20

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May 23, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Saturday, May 23, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers:

CHURCHILL DOWNS – RACE 10: Post 5:44 ET
2-Pneumatic (4-1)
Unbeaten in two starts with a pair of highly impressive performances, this sophomore son of Uncle Mo gets tested for class in the Matt Winn Stakes, a Grade-3 event that could serve as a steppingstone to the Belmont Stakes four weeks later. The Steve Asmussen-trained colt lands a favorable inside draw, has the tactical speed to secure a perfect ground-saving trip, and a closing kick that should keep his record spotless on the way to bigger and better things. There’s plenty of value to be found at or near his morning line of 4-1.
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CHURCHILL DOWNS – RACE: 11: Post 6:16 ET
5 – Field Pass (4-1)
Rapidly developing and versatile 3-year-old returns to grass after a clever all-weather score at Turfway Park in this one mile listed stakes and seems well-spotted to extend his winning streak to three. His victory on turf two runs back in the Dania Beach Stakes at Gulfstream was superb, as the son of Lemon Drop Kid overcame severe traffic to get up in the final strides while displaying a turn of foot that only the good ones have. At 4-1 on the morning – assuming the race remains on grass – the Mike Maker-trained colt is a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File
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RACE 1: Post 12:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Much More Halo; 3-Big Cheddar; 7-Silardi

Forecast: Today’s opener is a challenging maiden turf sprint offering several first-time starters with credentials to run well. As it is, we’ll stick with those with experience. Silardi was well-meant in his debut at Oaklawn Park earlier this month, but after flashing early speed and then fading in a hot race the P. Miller-trained 3-year-old seems certain to improve for a barn that hits a spectacular 25% with a massive flat-bet profit with second-time starters. Additionally, as a son of City Zip, this gelding should improve a ton with the switch to grass and if that weren’t enough red-hot F. Prat takes the call. There should be some good value at 7/2 on the morning if you can get it. Much More Halo missed by head over this course and distance in a similar affair in late February and has trained steadily since. He’s guaranteed a ground-saving trip from the rail and should run his race, but after four starts the feeling is that he can’t really beat a good colt if in fact there’s one in here. Big Cheddar is 15-1 on the morning line and probably is a bit better than that. His only prior turf sprint resulted in a good second place finish with a career top speed figure and not much more will be needed to at least hit the board. We’ll have tickets using all three in our rolling exotics and then press with Silardi in the win pool.
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RACE 2: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Divine Armor; 4-Believe Now

Forecast: Divine Armor has plenty in his favor in this maiden special weight main track miler for older horses. Beaten a neck with a huge, career-top speed figure last time out over this track and distance while almost five lengths clear of the rest, the son of Include won’t have to improve much to handle this assignment. The one he may have to worry about the most is the second-time starter Believe Now, who ran better than the line shows in his sprint debut. The Uncle Mo colt was in traffic much of the way before responding when clear to finish a willing fourth and then galloping out strongly, indicating he’s likely to improve with experience and distance. The barn’s go-to rider V. Espinoza takes the call, and we suspect the son of Uncle Mo, following a fast recent five furlong drill (:59.3) will step forward for the M. McCarthy barn, which has excellent stats with second-time starters. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with the 8/5 morning line favorite, Divine Armor, the logical top pick and one to beat.
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RACE 3: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Distant Vista; 4-Margot’s Boy

Forecast: Triple Crown nominated Distant Vista makes his U. S. debut after winning a moderate handicap over the all-weather surface at Dundalk in Ireland in December toting 138 lbs. while giving 21 lbs. to the runner-up (who did they think he was, Forego?). Three prior runs (including two on soft turf) didn’t amount to much, but this impressive performance was his first start in blinkers and led to the acquisition and importation to the U.S.. Once arrived, the son of Footstepsinthesand has looked very sharp in a series of training track drills that should have him fit and ready, so from a good inside draw and with F. Prat taking the call the Irish-bred 3-year-old appears extremely live and well-meant. As a saver, we’ll include on a ticket or two the improving Cal-bred Margot’s Bay, already a two-time winner over this course and distance with steadily rising speed figures and a clear pace advantage that will allow him to be the controlling speed. If not policed up front, the son of Clubhouse Ride could give ‘Vista a tough target to run down.
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RACE 4: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tiz Wonderfully; 5-Perfect Ice Storm; 7-Tiz Master

Forecast: We’ll use three in this allowance optional claiming miler for fillies and mares but big ticket players may find the need to spread even deeper, it’s that kind of race. Perfect Ice Storm crushed a much softer restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming field over a track listed as “good” in her most recent appearance while earning a career top speed figure, one that puts her right in the hunt in this tougher affair. This will be her third start off a layoff for a filly that appears much improved from last year, so at 4-1 on the morning line the P. Eurton-trained Cal-bred gets a slight edge on top. Tiz a Master, in her second start off a layoff, stretches out for the R. Baltas barn. After finishing a solid runner-up in an open $20,000 claiming sprint that produced a career-top speed figure coupled with a good recent workout, she’s another that appears to be on the upgrade. We’re expecting the daughter of Ministers Wild Cat to fold into a comfortable pace-stalking position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. The improving Tiz Wonderfully, a winner of three of her last four starts and potentially the controlling speed, earned a career top speed figure in her most recent score vs. modest $12,500 foes and today is protected in what we’ll assume is a sign of confidence. However, her work tab is sketchy and regular jockey V. Espinoza jumps ship to ride 12-1 Shanghai Barbie (huh?) so there are enough mixed signals to make this J. Cassidy-trained mare difficult to rely on. We’ll toss her in on ticket or two but that’s it. A case can also be made for the morning line (5/2) favorite Scarlet Heat, but this will be her first try on dirt and at her price that’s a bit too problematic for us.
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RACE 5: Post 2:30 PT. Grade: B
Use: 2-Stubbins; 6-Wildman Jack

Forecast: Stubbins appears to have found his niche as a high-class late-running turf sprinter. His much-troubled fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint-G1 over this course last fall was his best performance ever, and today he gets an extra half-furlong to work with in his first start off the bench while switching to superior grass rider U. Rispoli. He’s won following a long layoff in the past, and a bullet three furlong blowout (:34 flat) four days ago at San Luis Rey Downs catches the eye, so if he can leave cleanly and can launch his bid unobstructed, the son of Morning Line could tag the leaders. The 2-1 morning line favorite Wildman Jack looks like the controlling speed, conditions that produced a record-setting win in the Nad Al Sheba Turf Sprint-G3 over the straightaway course in Meydan in early March. ‘Jack may be less effective over today’s round course but if he can shake loose without pressure he’ll be tough to run down. There is no question that both Cistron and Texas Wedge have the credentials to win a race like this as well; however, the former is just 2-for-14 over the Santa Anita lawn and the latter hasn’t quite yet beaten this level of competition. We’ll try to squeak by without them but if you feel the need to include one or both as a back-up, go right ahead.
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RACE 6: Post 3:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 1-Midnight Garden; 2-Sybil’s Kitty; 3-Real Good Deal; 7-Drop the Mic

Forecast: Honestly, nothing would surprise us in this bottom-level (nw-2) $12,500 sprint for fillies and mares. We’ll pass the race while going four-deep in our rolling exotics. Real Good Deal, in the photo when third in a similar event here in mid-March, makes a monumental jockey switch to F. Prat and on that basis alone should be the favorite and one to beat. The L. Powell-trained filly projects to settle into a second-flight stalking position and then have dead aim with it counts. Sybil’s Kitty, a close fourth in the same race Real Good Deal exits, switches to A. Cedillo and has the kind of speed to set or make the pace. On her best day, she’s right there. Midnight Garden won at first asking in a maiden $20,000 affair in March with a speed figure that makes her competitive at this level. She showed a bit of moxie in that rally-wide victory and if she can secure a good trip from the rail the daughter of Majestic Warrior should be right there. Drop the Mic has trained fairly well for a cheap sort for her first start since November. Her New Mexico isn’t half bad, and from her outside draw the G. Headley-trained mare should enjoy a soft, pace-stalking trip. Toss her in at 6-1 on the morning line.
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RACE 7: Post 3:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Rstars and Stripes; 5-Lovely Lilia; 9-Samurai Charm

Forecast: Here’s another difficult affair, this one a starter optional claimer for 3-year-old fillies. Samurai Charm returns protected in her first start since September and lands F. Prat, so we’ll assume the she’s fit and ready following a solid series of drills at San Luis Rey Downs. She’s pretty quick in a field that doesn’t have any break-away speed types, so either on the lead or from slightly off the pace the P. Miller-trained filly may get the kind of trip that can bring out her best. At 6-1 on the morning line in an open fray, the daughter of First Samurai seems as good as any. Lovely Lilia returns from Oaklawn Park where she was unplaced in a tougher spot over a wet-fast track she may not have cared for. The daughter of Animal Kingdom shows a 15 length maiden-claiming win over the local main track that charts very well here, so off her best race the P. D’Amato-trained filly is a “must use.” Rstars and Stripes, a nearly 10-length maiden winner over the Santa Anita main track in February, has numbers that fit and offers long shot value at 12-1 on the morning line. She shortens to five and one-half furlongs and will likely be in the first flight from the get-go. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three in our rolling exotics but not really with a great deal of confidence.
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RACE 8: Post 4:00 PT. Grade: X
Single: 5-United

Forecast: United is 6/5 on the morning line and looks it on paper. The Giant’s Causeway gelding, second in both the Breeders’ Cup Turf-G1 and the Hollywood Turf Cup-G1 before winning the San Marcos S.-G1 in February over this course and distance, has trained like he’s ready to pick up where he left off when facing a field that he really should outclass. The R. Mandella-trained 5-year-old has enough tactical speed to be placed wherever F. Prat wants to be in a race flow that should be very soft during the early stages. He’s an obvious no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 4:30 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Vodka Twist; 9-Dr. Hoffman; 12-Salah

Forecast: Bottom-rung maiden $20,000 claiming routers meet in the finale; best advice is to use as many as you can afford to. Vodka Twist is a big class dropper likely to gain confidence at this bottom level. Blinkers are re-equipped, and in his first try on dirt and exiting a sprint the son of Distorted Humor should be find himself close up with every chance. If he can run at all, this would be a very good spot to show it. Dr. Hoffman was wiped out at the start in his debut vs. high-priced maiden claimers over a mile on grass and never really showed much thereafter, but this is an entirely different context, and with the switch to F. Prat the son of Alternation should be much more competitive. Based on his recent workouts the son of Alternation seems likely display a lot more early speed today, assuming he leaves with his field. Salah is a 12-race maiden and obviously not one to trust, especially from the extreme outside draw, but he’s dropping to the bottom while switching to U. Rispolo and has several back speed figures that are good enough to win.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Six for the Money, Winn, Anita P4

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May 22, 2020 | By Johnny D
Jockey Flavien Prat won six races Sunday at Santa Anita Park. That trick hasn’t been performed at The Great Race Place since Rafael Bejarano piloted a sextet there in 2006.

Racing aficionados concur that Prat’s currently the best in the west. At Santa Anita, he leads all riders with 55 wins and eight stakes tallies. Last season, during the 2018-19 Santa Anita winter meet, he finished second in wins to the presently-employed-elsewhere Joel Rosario (56-52 with 23 less mounts) but topped all riders in SA stakes victories with 12 and purse earnings at nearly $3.5 million.

Still, knocking down a six-bagger on a single card is extremely difficult. An abundance of perfect synergy is required. So many factors must coalesce, from-entry-to draw-to-break-to-trip-to-finish…six times. Stars must align. Moon in the proper ‘house.’

That’s probably why, since 1934 at Sant Anita, a rider has won at least six races in a single day just 14 times. Below is a list of jockeys who have won six races during a single card at Santa Anita:

Bill Shoemaker (’62)
Laffit Pincay (’73 & ’81)
Steve Valdez (’73 Eclipse Award-Winning Apprentice)
Sandy Hawley (’76 twice)
Darrel McHargue (’78 & ’79)
Patrick Valenzuela (’88)
Martin Pedroza (’92)
Corey Nakatani (‘00)
Rafael Bejarano (’06)
Flavien Prat (’20)

No bums on that list. However, you may have noticed three Hall-of-Fame members (Shoemaker, Pincay & Hawley), one about-to-be-inducted (McHargue) and one that eventually-will-be-inducted (Nakatani has credentials and merely requires votes).

Winning six races in a single day is like pitching a no-hitter. Bagging seven’s akin to hurling a perfect game. Only the great Laffit Pincay has ever done that at Santa Anita. He scored with seven of eight mounts in 1987!

When told names of previous ‘Anita six-packers, Prat, 27, respectfully remarked, “That’s quite an amazing group of riders. It was one of those days when everything you do is right. It’s so good to be back racing here and I rode good horses all weekend.”

Prat’s accomplishment came, to say the least, at a unique point in the storied history of the famed Arcadia oval. Since March 27, until this past Friday, May 15, the track had been closed due to the pandemic. During that time jockeys, obviously, weren’t riding any races and they were not permitted to work horses in the morning, either. Therefore, during the quarantine, like other pro athletes, jocks were required to maintain fitness on their own. Prat, apparently, embraced the challenge.

“Even though we had the break, I thought I was fit and ready to come back. I’ve never worked out so hard at home. I’ve got a stationary bike and I lifted weights, not heavy, but enough to maintain flexibility.”

Prat is one of a trio of French-born and trained jockeys that have enjoyed successful careers in the US. Julien Leparoux, 36, and Florent Geroux, 33, are the others. Conventional wisdom suggests that, since the majority of European races are on turf, French-trained jockeys would have advantages over US-based competitors when riding on the green. However, Prat and Geroux, recently, have displayed notable aggressive early tactics in dirt races—opposite of the patient, one-run style usually employed on turf.

And, of course, just about everyone needs reminding that Flavien Prat has won a Kentucky Derby! He was aboard Country House, winner of the 2019 Derby following Maximum Security’s disqualification.

Last week in this space we delivered a winning suggested Saturday Santa Anita Late Pick 4 ticket. It was a $67.40 play that returned $153.70. Granted, that score’s not going to headline the evening news but, as the saying suggests, ‘you can’t go broke taking a profit.’

We’ll try again this weekend with one man’s opinion of Saturday’s Santa Anita Late Pick 4:

Santa Anita – Saturday, May 23

6th Race
#1 Midnight Garden –She broke maiden first out last time for $20k and moves directly to this $12k non-winners of two lifetime. That’s the right move and if she improves a bit off her debut, she’ll be right there. The rail’s no bargain going six furlongs and she’s a 5-year-old, but she figures to save ground and attempt to come from off the pace.

#2 Sybil’s Kitty – Not a bad try last out when just behind common foe Real Good Deal. She’s got some speed and could be closer than last out. Jockey Abel Cedillo is second in number of wins at the meeting and trainer Richard Baltas returns from a short suspension.

#3 Real Good Deal – Top jock Prat tries his hand here aboard a 4-year-old filly that was a neck short last out at this level. That was her first local start after making seven previous outs in Northern California.

#4 Way too Sweet – She broke maiden first out in a Cal-bred $50k claimer in August at Del Mar; was off four months and returned in January with a stinker against much better than she’ll face today. She did show speed in that race. She’s a bit of a guess, but trainer Mike Puype is strong in claiming races.

7th Race
#2 Rstars and Stripes – Two out of her three races are good: a first-out maiden win by nearly 10 lengths at $50k and a close third last out against foes just below this level. Between those races she tried turf at this level, bobbled at the start, raced close up and faded. A return to the main should help.

#8 Galwalksintoabar – Big win first out for this 3-year-old filly at the state-bred 50K maiden level. She’s got some speed and is drawn one from the outside.Drayden Van Dyke returns in the irons for breeder/owner Nick Alexander and trainer Steve Miyadi.

#9 Samurai Charm – Trainer Peter Miller hits at 24%, so players need to examine everything he starts. Jockey Prat wins at 25% and together they’re a sterling 23% with 43 starters. Those are some powerful stats. This filly’s no slouch either. First out, she faced $150k maidens and showed speed. Next, dropped to $50k, she romped wire-to-wire. Speed and the far outside box are dangerous. Some might even consider singling this filly.


8th Race
#5 United –At the end of last season, he followed up a close lose at huge odds in the Breeders’ Cup Turf with another narrow defeat in the Hollywood Turf Cup at Del Mar. United began 2020 with a victory at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 San Marcos going the same distance as today’s race. He was a close second in this race last year and since has been first, second or third in every race. He should stalk the early pace under leading rider Flavien Prat for trainer Richard Mandella.

#6 Originaire – This 4-year-old colt has steadily improved over time and fired his best shot last out when he romped in a Santa Anita allowance/claimer at a mile and one-eighth. This is a step up from that performance, but he was Grade 2 placed behind a red-hot Mo Forza, so it’s not like he can’t make the climb. His greatest challenge could be the fact that he comes from well off the pace and there is little speed in here.

#7 Rockemporer – When Chad Brown and Irad Ortiz combine, horseplayers must pay attention. Unfortunately, this 4-year-old will have a similar issue as #6 Originaire—there’s no speed in this race to set up his closing kick. That late charge was sufficient to earn him Grade 1 placing when third in the Belmont Derby behind Henley’s Joy and Social Paranoia. Last out he was third, beaten nearly four, when rallying wide at Fair Grounds in the Grade 2 Mervin Muniz.

9th Race
#2 Vodka Twist – This gelding takes a huge class drop from maiden allowance to the bottom at $20k and is being switched from turf to dirt. Blinkers go on. While runners dropping from straight maiden to the bottom must be examined, this one will need to do much, much better.
#8 Posty –This 4-year-old gelding didn’t run too badly when dropped to this level from Cal-bred $50k last out. He’s stretching out from sprints to this mile and one-sixteenth route. He’s got some speed in a race that doesn’t have much. Perhaps he can make the lead and keep going? It’s his best chance.

#9 Dr. Hoffman – Trainer Mark Glatt has been on fire and jockey Flavien Frat has been even hotter. Can’t ignore any runner starting for these guys. This 3-year-old drops from maiden $75k to $20k, moves from turf to dirt, adds Prat and has two bullet works for this. Should be noted that he had trouble in his last race when squeezed and steadied at the start.

#11 Beaumont Beaux – 4-year-old first time starter has some decent works for this. It’s difficult winning with a first timer going two turns, especially at this lower level and trainer Keith Desormeaux isn’t known for cranking them up first out. The plus factor is that Beaumont Beaux hasn’t shown he can’t run. At least not yet.

#12 Salah –Tough outside assignment for an 0-12 maiden. Only reason gelding gets a second look is that he’s got some strong Beyer Speed Figures for this field. So, he runs fast but a few always run faster. He drops to his lowest class level ever and that should help. In fact, all he needs to do is to run as fast as he has many times before and he will be right there against these foes.

Suggested $.50 Pick 4 Ticket ($54):
2, 3, 4
2, 8, 9
5, 6, 7
8, 9, 11, 12

Take care of each other. Race On!

Bonus Coverage

Johnny D’s Matt Winn Analysis & Selections

Saturday, May 23 – Churchill Downs

10th Race—Grade 3 Matt Winn
1. Mystic Guide Stidham/Hernandez 15-1
Ran a big one to break maiden last out by five at Fair Grounds. Would need another forward step in here to contend. Not impossible, but not likely to win.

2. Pneumatic Asmussen/Santana 4-1
Has done nothing wrong in two starts at Oaklawn—both wins. He’s got enough early speed to be close to whatever pace develops and he has a bullet, best of 133 others at the distance. Nice post position should find him saving ground and stalking the leaders around the first turn. He’s got a big look in here.

3. Informative St. Lewis/Bisono 20-1
Has one win in nine starts and that came in a maiden race over a ‘good’ track at Aquedect. Needs to do better. Positive is that he’s consistent, but a bit too slow.

4. Celtic Striker Handal/Franco 20-1
Has a touch of speed but hasn’t run fast enough to contend at this level. Pass.

5. Flap Jack Sisterson/Bejarano 20-1
He’s got one race that might be good enough to contend in here. That came when he raced wide in the Grade 3 Gotham. His only win came over a synthetic track at Arlington in the Arlington Washington Futurity in September. Pass.

6. Ny Traffic Joseph/Lopez 10-1
He’s got speed and that should help his cause. He was third in the Risen Star and second, last out, in the Louisiana Derby. Those races were at a mile and one-eighth and a mile and three-sixteenths, respectively. This shorter mile and one-sixteenth trip should be in his favor. He’s run the fastest races of anyone in here and has had plenty of time to recover since his Fair Grounds effort. Count him as a serious win candidate.

7. Necker Island Hough/Gafflione 15-1
After winning a pair of races at two he didn’t step forward at three when tried in the Grade 3 Swale and Gotham and the ungraded Unbridled. He’ll have to do more this season to act with this group. Pass.

8. Crypto Cash McPeek/Lanerie 20-1
He’s got no speed in a race that lacks early pace and that’s always a negative. He is determined, closing ground in the lane in the majority of his races. He moved forward last out in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, but he’ll need to take another step to win this. Because of his determined closing charge, he’s worth including in exotics.

9. Shake Some Action Cox/Castellano 12-1
He has no early speed and figures to be wide. He has two Fair Grounds wins—one on turf—and has not taken a back step, according to Beyer Speed Figures & Thoro-Graph. Those are positives that give this guy some chance to make noise in here. Best considered in exotics.

10. Maxfield Walsh/J. Ortiz 5/2
He’s the morning-line favorite and a nationally well-regarded 3-year-old. He probably will take plenty of money in here. There’s no doubt that his Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity win at Keeneland in October was outstanding—visually and according to speed figures. However, Maxfield was injured, forced to miss the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and hasn’t raced since. Will he improve as a 3-year-old? Who knows? And that’s one reason it’s worth taking a shot against him in this race. He’s got to return from a layoff in top form and either duplicate or improve on his 3-year-old best to win in here. Plus, he’s got to do that from an unattractive post position with no early pace to set up his closing charge. Those are steep hills to climb. Can he win? Certainly. Are there concrete reasons to take a stand against at short odds? Definitely.

11. Attachment Rate Romans/Velazquez 4-1
Here’s another starter with limited early speed. However, he doesn’t drop as far back as some others in here. Expect to find him mid-pack and that will aid his quest. He’s got two races that fit well in here on figures, so he deserves attention. He’s also got some fight and hasn’t been worse than third since his first start in June of last year. Contender and exotic must use.

12. Major Fed Foley/Rosario 5-1
No early speed and the far outside 12-hole spell difficulties for this son of Ghostzapper but he might be good enough to overcome them. He’s moved forward nicely, according to BSF and TG figures--great signs for a developing 3-year-old colt. It’s reasonable to expect another forward-moving performance from this guy. He finished a neck in front of Ny Traffic in the Risen Star, and about three lengths behind that foe in the Risen Star when Major Fed broke slow and had to rally from 14th and last early. Despite the negatives, he’s a win contender and a certain exotics inclusion.

Bottom Line:
Expect #6 Ny Traffic to use his speed to establish a favorable forward position, either leading or stalking the pace. He’s good enough to take the field the whole way. Expect #2 Pneumatic to be close to the early pace and if he improves a bit, he should have a say in the finish. #12 Major Fed needs to work out a trip under Rosario and he cannot be ignored. Favorite #10 Maxfield has enough question marks to wager against at a short price.

$.50 Trifecta ($30)
#2, #6, #12
#2, #6, #10, #11, #12
#2, #6, #8, #9, #10, #11, #12

Race On!