Service Plays Sunday 6/7/20

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Trial - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $4000 Class Rating: 88

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS. 124LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 PYC POWERGLIDE 5/2
# 8 TERRIFIC TEMPER 7/2
# 4 CHANCE TO EXCEL 8/5

PYC POWERGLIDE has a decent shot to take this race. Has quite good Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in this race. Must be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last affair. His chances to win are much better today facing this less demanding group. TERRIFIC TEMPER - Could provide positive gains based on respectable recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 79. Odell has a strong winning percentage with horses running in short races. CHANCE TO EXCEL - With a very good 86 speed fig last time out, will clearly be a factor in this contest. Arrossa has a formidable 19 percent win rate with entries running at this distance and surface.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Santa Anita Park

06/07/20, SA, Race 9, 4.48 PT
06/07/20,SA,9,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:01:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $50,000. FOR CALIFORNIA BRED OR CALIFORNIA SIRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.00	8	Liberalism	4-1	Rispoli U	Koriner Brian J.	TL	29.96	1.33/$1
098.68	1	Approved for Flyby(b+)	4-1	Prat F	Truman Eddie	J	29.96	1.33/$1
098.41	6	Lovely Finish	5/2	Gryder A T	Herrick Joe	SFE	34.23	1.15/$1
096.58	9	A Melis	3-1	Cedillo A	Yakteen Tim		29.96	1.33/$1
096.41	10	Anna Fantastic	15-1	Fuentes R	Headley Karen		29.96	1.33/$1
096.33	4	Shez Our Arch	15-1	Pereira T J	Gutierrez Jorge		29.96	1.33/$1
096.15	5	Apache Pass(b-)	12-1	Roman E A	Glatt Mark	W	29.96	1.33/$1
095.74	2	Scream and Shout	10-1	Velez J I	Yakteen Tim		29.96	1.33/$1
094.96	7	Run Like Kona	15-1	Valdivia. Jr. J	Hess. Jr. Robert B.	C	29.96	1.33/$1
092.43	3	Mountain Pass	50-1	Maldonado E A	Hernandez. Jr. Jose		29.96	1.33/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 3.47/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

NASCAR

Bets I've locked in as of 11 AM EST 6/5

Kevin Harvick +350
Martin Truex Jr. +800
Denny Hamlin +1200
Clint Bowyer +4000

H2H Matchups

Kyle Busch -130 vs. Alex Bowman
Jimmie Johnson +105 vs. Ryan Blaney
Clint Bowyer +120 vs. Erik Jones

The projected top 10, according to the model: (William Hill odds updated 6/2)

1 Kevin Harvick 7-2
2 Chase Elliott 6-1
3 Brad Keselowski 13-2
4 Kyle Busch 13-2
5 Joey Logano 15-2
6 Martin Truex Jr 8-1
7 Denny Hamlin 12-1
8 Kurt Busch 20-1
9 Jimmie Johnson 18-1
10 Clint Bowyer 40-1

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Erik Jones
12 Ryan Blaney
13 Alex Bowman
14 William Byron
15 Tyler Reddick
16 Matt Kenseth
17 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
18 Aric Almirola
19 Ryan Newman
20 Matt DiBenedetto
21 Christopher Bell
22 Austin Dillon
23 Bubba Wallace
24 Cole Custer
25 Daniel Suarez
26 Ryan Preece
27 Ty Dillon
28 John H. Nemechek
29 Chris Buescher
30 Michael McDowell
31 Corey Lajoie
32 Brennan Poole
33 JJ Yeley
34 Timmy Hill
35 Reed Sorenson
36 BJ McLeod
37 Quin Houff
38 Joey Gase
39 Garrett Smithley
40 Josh Bilicki

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

1 #9 Chase Elliott (6-1) -- It doesn't matter what race package he's using because, chances are, he's going to have a car capable of winning. He's been on a roll all season but only has one win to show for it - the last race at Charlotte using this week's package. In four Cup Series starts at Atlanta, he's averaged a 10th-place finish, which is tops among active drivers. Atlanta is his home track. This is a great spot for him to win.

2 #88 Alex Bowman (15-2) -- He's never had a finish better than 15th in four Cup Series races at Atlanta, but he's quickly becoming one of the best. Whenever he's on a cookie-cutter track like the ones at Atlanta, Charlotte or Fontana, he should be part of the betting mix to win.

3 #2 Brad Keselowski (13-2) -- He comes in with the momentum of winning two of the last three races on the schedule, and also taking the checkered flag in two of the last three at Atlanta. He didn't win in 2018 but was runner-up. That's about as good as it gets and the reason he should be in your odds-to-win wagering equation.

4 #12 Ryan Blaney (15-1) -- His best Atlanta finish was 12th place in 2018, and he led 41 laps before finishing 22nd last season. He's been up and down all season thus far, but he's had a car capable of winning in four of the six races using this package and finished third in both at Charlotte. Luck has to swing his way soon. I'm certain he'll have another fast car and the track isn't as tricky as Darlington's. Blaney could become the new cookie-cutter king.

5 #11 Denny Hamlin (12-1) -- His lone Atlanta win came in 2012, and he's had a couple of early exits here since then, but I like how his team is set with this week's race package, as he posted a win with it at Darlington and a fast-charging runner-up finish at Charlotte. He may be the best at saving his tires for long runs on sandpaper surfaces, and Atlanta's got a rough one.

6 #4 Kevin Harvick (7-2) -- He's a two-time winner, including his first Cup Series victory in 2001 just two weeks after taking over the No. 3 team. He leads all active drivers with 1,197 laps led, and probably should have at least four wins. He's led at least 101 laps in six of his last eight Atlanta starts and had the best car in four of those, but he only came away with one win (2018). He's got top-10s in all six races using this week's package, leading laps in four of them.

7 #18 Kyle Busch (13-2) -- He's a two-time winner at Atlanta, the last victory coming in 2013, and he finished sixth last season. The story with him in 2020 is no wins in the first nine races, although he does have five top-five finishes. A win is coming soon, but he won't be in my betting equation this week. I also won't be betting against him in driver matchups.

8 #1 Kurt Busch (20-1) -- Atlanta always has been one of his better tracks as he's recorded three wins and 802 laps led. His worst finish in his last 10 starts here was 13th, where he came in twice. He finished third in this race last season. He's also been third in races at Fontana and Darlington using this week's package.

9 #20 Erik Jones (30-1) -- He had a career-best seventh-place at Atlanta last season and has a 10.6 average finish in three Cup Series starts here. For a young driver, he's proved to be one of the best at saving tires on abrasive surfaces.

10 #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) -- He's the king of the ovals now that Jimmie Johnson has taken a break from winning on them. Truex is averaging a 16th-place finish and never has won in 21 starts at Atlanta. Not having Cole Pearn as crew chief in 2020 has made a huge impact as Truex doesn't have a single top-five finish in nine starts after leading the Cup Series last year with seven wins.

11 #48 Jimmie Johnson (18-1) -- He's the active leader with five wins and 14 top-five finishes at Atlanta. In 29 starts, he's averaged a 12th-place finish. With the abrasive surface, this is a track on which he can use his thinking skills to wait for all the others to slow as he saves his tires on a long run. He's been fast in almost every race using this package.

12 #10 Aric Almirola (75-1) -- He had a career-best eighth-place finish at Atlanta last season after starting from the pole and leading 36 laps. He's had a couple of fast cars this season using this week's race package. He's not quite in the Harvick category yet at Stewart-Haas Racing, but he's close.

13 #14 Clint Bowyer (40-1) -- He's had his best Atlanta finishes in his last two races there - third in 2018 and fifth last season, his only top-fives in 19 starts. Another top-five? I'll certainly be playing him in a few driver matchups.

14 #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (125-1) -- His best finish in seven Atlanta races has been 10th in 2016, and he's averaged 18th place. However, I liked what I saw when he finished third in the second Darlington race. I also like how hard he races, with no remorse. He'll get all he can out of the car or wreck trying.

15 #24 William Byron (30-1) -- In two Cup Series starts at Atlanta, he's finished 17th and 18th. Of the four Hendrick cars, Byron has gotten the least speed out of his, although sometimes he shows glimpses of being ready to win. I have a feeling the abrasive surface is going to eat up his tires more than the smarter veterans.

16 #22 Joey Logano (15-2) -- He's been good in his last seven starts at Atlanta with two top-five finishes. But in the six races using this week's package, he's been just above average, with his only top-five being a win at Las Vegas that was aided by a late pitting strategy.

17 #95 Christopher Bell (200-1) -- The rookie makes his Atlanta debut in the Cup Series, but he's far from a novice on this track. He won the Xfinity Series race last season and a Truck Series race here in 2017. He finished ninth in the Coca-Cola 600 using this week's race package.

18 #42 Matt Kenseth (60-1) -- He's made 29 starts at Atlanta and compiled 11 top-fives, which has helped him average an 11th-place finish, the best among drivers with more than five starts. His comeback race at Darlington saw him finish 10th, but he looked as though he should have remained in retirement in the last three with this package. Still, he's got a good car.

19 #8 Tyler Reddick (60-1) -- He makes his debut at Atlanta in the Cup Series, but a pair of top-10 finishes in the last four races using this week's package suggest his team has figured out a way to get some speed.

20 #21 Matt DiBenedetto (60-1) -- He's got a 28th-place average finish in four Cup Series starts at Atlanta. But he's been very competitive with this week's race package, as he was runner-up at Las Vegas and ninth in the second Darlington race.