Service Plays Early Selections

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2020, 08:42 AM

Hitman

2020 NFL Season Win Totals For season win totals, I will be posting lines that are available at a minimum of two major sportsbooks.

3/24: 3* Jags UNDER 5.5 Wins -125 (BOL/5D... like this as a 3* play at U5 as well!)

My win projection for the Jags this season is 4.05

3/24: 2* LA Rams U9 Wins -125 (BOL/5D)

My win projection for the Rams this season is 8.32

3/24: 2* Carolina Panthers U5.5 Wins -110 (5D)

My win projection for the Panthers this season is 4.88

4/29: 2* Chicago Bears U8.5 Wins -135 (BOL)

My win projection for the Bears this season is 7.6

5/8: 2* New York Jets U7 Wins -120 (5D)

My win projection for the Jets this season is 5.76

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2020, 08:42 AM

HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 8:20 PM
478 LOS 3.0 (-110) Southpoint vs 477 DAL

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The public perception and love a–ffair with the Cowboys gives us clear value on the Rams as a 3 point home dog. I make the game Dallas -0.5.

The Rams are one of the teams least affected by the fact that this game will likely not have fans. Dallas will still have to travel, which gives the Rams around a 1.5 HFA.

Dallas will be playing their first game with a new HC, who has a limited time to implement his offense in a shortened offseason.

Matchup wise, the book is out on the Rams. They are a bet on team when Jared Goff's pocket is clean, and a bet against when he's under pressure. He is also a significantly better quarterback at home. Dallas was around league average in pressure rate last season, and projects to be around the same this season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-07-2020, 08:43 AM

HITMAN | NFL SIDE SUN, 09/13/20 - 1:00 PM
469 GBP 3.5 (-110) Bookmaker vs 470 MIN

double-dime bet
Analysis:
I make this game Vikings -3.5... ASSUMING that we have a full capacity crowd. With the game likely having no or a limited crowd, the Vikings HFA takes a significant hit. I make this game Vikings -2.5, giving us value going through the key number of 3.

I am not a big trends guy, but one trend I think is applicable is divisional dogs in week 1. Teams ty–pically aren't hitting at full stride yet early in the season, and it keeps these games between familiar opponents super close. Divisional dogs since 2014 are 21-5-1 ATS, including 4-1 last season.

I think eventually the friction between Rodgers and the Packers front office hurts this Packers team negatively, but I suspect we see a super motivated Rodgers for his first game since the Packers essentially signaled to Rodgers that they are planning on life without him in 2-3 years. Plus, the Vikings will be breaking in a completely new cornerback group with very little experience.

Pick Made: May 8 2020 3:52PM PST

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-09-2020, 11:32 PM

HITMAN | NFL TOTAL SUN, 09/13/20 - 4:05 PM
472 CIN / 471 LAC Under 45.5 Southpoint

double-dime bet
Analysis:
The Chargers are my– favorite under the radar "under" team this season. Last year, Chargers games average only 38.5 PPG despite many games where opposing offenses started in great field position due to turnovers committed by the Chargers offense.

Last season, the Chargers were better then their record, but committing the 4th most turnovers in the NFL led to the Chargers going 5-11 despite having a Pythagorean win total of 7.8. Now the Chargers go from one of the most turnover prone quarterbacks in the NFL in Phillip Rivers to one of the most conservative quarterbacks in the NFL in Tyrod Taylor. Ultimately I believe this leads to the Chargers being run heavier and relying on their defense more this season, which on paper projects as a top five defense this season.

The Bengals theoretically improved on both sides of the ball this season, but I expect the offense to take more time to gel due to the Bengals starting a rookie quarterback that has a shortened offseason to get prepared.

LINE NOTE 5/17: You can get 46.5 in NJ (DK), 46 at WHill, 45.5 at multiple Vegas shops and 44.5 is the most common number offshore. I tried to split the difference by listing this game at 45.5. Regardless, I like this under at 44 or better.

Service Plays Early Selections

Service Plays Early Selections

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment