Service Plays Thursday 6/11/20

**FATMANWINS** · 06-10-2020, 05:42 PM

VERNON CROY 7 * WEBB SIMPSON ( -140) OVER BROOKS KOEPKA .

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2020, 06:49 PM

FujitaPunter

SOUTH KOREA: KBO
KT Wiz Suwon - KIA Tigers
Under 11

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2020, 06:49 PM

Mike McClure

PGA

The model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open.

Bets I've placed as of 9:30 PM EST 6/8

Outright Winner

Jon Rahm +1200
Justin Thomas +1600
Xander Schauffele +2800
Collin Morikawa +4500
Scottie Scheffler +4500

Top 5 Finish

Xander Schauffele +650
Collin Morikawa +900

H2H Matchups

John Rahm +100 vs. Rory McIlroy
Brooks Koepka -110 vs. Dustin Johnson
Justin Rose -105 vs. Jordan Spieth
Justin Thomas -138 vs. Bryson DeChambeau

3-Ball Matchups

Rory McIlroy - Jon Rahm - Brooks Koepka: Rahm +160

Justin Thomas - Rickie Fowler - Jordan Spieth: Thomas +125

MISS THE CUT

Jordan Spieth +175

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Jon Rahm (12-1)
2. Rory McIlroy (15-2)
3. Justin Thomas (16-1)
4. Brooks Koepka (28-1)
5. Webb Simpson (22-1)
6. Xander Schauffele (28-1)
7. Bryson DeChambeau (22-1)
8. Patrick Reed (28-1)
9. Dustin Johnson (28-1)
10. Scottie Scheffler (45-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Collin Morikawa
12 Sungjae Im
13 Rickie Fowler
14 Tony Finau
15 Matt Kuchar
16 Viktor Hovland
17 Justin Rose
18 Gary Woodland
19 Marc Leishman
20 Shane Lowry
21 Louis Oosthuizen
22 Kevin Na
23 Byeong Hun An
24 Abraham Ancer
25 Matthew Fitzpatrick
26 Daniel Berger
27 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
28 Max Homa
29 Jason Day
30 Billy Horschel
31 Ryan Moore
32 Jim Furyk
33 Joel Dahmen
34 Ryan Palmer
35 Chez Reavie
36 Kevin Kisner
37 Sergio Garcia
38 Jordan Spieth
39 Brian Harman
40 Harris English
41 Adam Hadwin
42 Rory Sabbatini
43 Corey Conners
44 Bud Cauley
45 Tom Hoge
46 Russell Knox
47 Vaughn Taylor
48 Sebastian Munoz
49 Brendon Todd
50 Steve Stricker
51 Joaquin Niemann
52 Rafa Cabrera Bello
53 Danny Lee
54 J.T. Poston
55 Zach Johnson
56 Jason Kokrak
57 Andrew Putnam
58 Erik Van Rooyen
59 Ian Poulter
60 Danny Willett
61 Harold Varner III
62 Victor Perez
63 Lanto Griffin
64 Harry Higgs
65 Emiliano Grillo
66 Charles Howell III
67 Cameron Smith
68 Lucas Glover
69 Scott Piercy
70 Matt Jones
71 Adam Long
72 Branden Grace
73 Alex Noren
74 Denny McCarthy
75 Carlos Ortiz
76 Jhonattan Vegas
77 Pat Perez
78 Charley Hoffman
79 Matthew Wolff
80 Talor Gooch
81 Kevin Streelman
82 Bubba Watson
83 Keith Mitchell
84 Brice Garnett
85 Maverick McNealy
86 Keegan Bradley
87 Dylan Frittelli
88 Chris Kirk
89 Sung Kang
90 Adam Schenk
91 Matthew NeSmith
92 Brian Stuard
93 Mark Hubbard
94 Bronson Burgoon
95 Jason Dufner
96 Andrew Landry
97 Cameron Champ
98 Troy Merritt
99 Patrick Rodgers
100 Tom Lewis
101 Doc Redman
102 Graeme McDowell
103 Xinjun Zhang
104 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
105 Nate Lashley
106 Zac Blair
107 Cameron Davis
108 Kevin Tway
109 Beau Hossler
110 Matt Wallace
111 Phil Mickelson
112 Richy Werenski
113 Sam Ryder
114 C.T. Pan
115 Brian Gay
116 Wyndham Clark
117 Brendan Steele
118 Jazz Janewattananond
119 Jimmy Walker
120 Nick Watney
121 Kramer Hickok
122 Tyler Duncan
123 Sepp Straka
124 Josh Teater
125 Henrik Norlander
126 Scott Brown
127 Si Woo Kim
128 Chesson Hadley
129 Mackenzie Hughes
130 Robby Shelton
131 Bill Haas
132 Tyler McCumber
133 Peter Uihlein
134 Doug Ghim
135 Scott Harrington
136 Bernhard Langer
137 Chad Campbell
138 Jim Herman
139 Patton Kizzire
140 Andy Ogletree
141 J.J. Henry
142 Tom Lehman
143 John Senden
144 Scott McCarron
145 Franklin Corpening
146 David Frost
147 Olin Browne
148 Keith Clearwater

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2020, 06:50 PM

Sal Johnson

PGA

Charles Schwab Challenge

It's tough to believe the last round on the PGA Tour took place 91 days ago. This is the longest stretch without competition on the PGA Tour since the mid 1980s, when the season ended in mid-October and started back up in January.

Competitive golf finally returns this week with the Charles Schwab Challenge at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas. It will be the first tournament round since March 11, when the first round of The Players Championship was played at TPC Sawgrass. That night, the PGA Tour made the decision to shut the season down because of the coronavirus crisis.

Getting the PGA Tour going again has taken a lot of planning. Officials have made a lot of concessions, with the biggest of course being no fans allowed for the first four weeks. The Tour will allow only players, caddies, officials and limited media on site. The courses will be set up the same, with gallery ropes and electronic leaderboards, but there will be no gallery.

Everyone from players and caddies to officials will be tested throughout the week to make sure the 1,000 or so allowed at Colonial will be healthy. Players will stay together in hotels and ride to the course on transportation that will be monitored to assure it is virus-free. Family and friends will not be allowed, which will be a difficult concession for players who are used to traveling with family.

CBS Sports also will be restricted, with announcer Jim Nantz and two on-course reporters at Colonial. Analysys Nick Faldo, Ian Baker-Finch, Frank Nobilo and Trevor Immelman will be in the Golf Channel studios in Orlando, some 1,100 miles away.

The field this week will be the best in the tournament's 74-year history. There are 148 players in the field, including 69 of the top 100 in the World Golf Ranking. That includes 36 of the top 50 and seven of the top 10. The field also includes 22 of the top 25 in the FedEx Cup standings, and 14 past Colonial champions.

With the return to golf after a three-month absence and a loaded field, the weekend ratings should be record-setting.

Playing without a gallery

To get things started, the PGA Tour had to stipulate no fans could attend. The lack of fans didn't seem to play into the equation at last month's TaylorMade Driving Relief and Capital One The Match charity events. But that was with only one group on the course and the players just happy to have some competition.

Early in the week, it shouldn't be a big deal, as 40 of the 50 groups at a typical Tour event have little in the way of gallery on Thursday and Friday. But when we get to the weekend, could make a big difference.

The players feed off the sound of the gallery, and in some cases, it helps players determine where they stand. If a player is in contention coming down the stretch on Sunday, the lack of cheering could affect players.

Fans create the adrenaline and energy for great players to hit great shots in the clutch. On the other hand, players not accustomed to big galleries could benefit without the pressure of screaming fans all around them. So in the weeks ahead we could see some unexpected champions.

Well-rested or rusty?

Players on the PGA Tour are creatures of habit. For most players, each day consists of a workout regimen and working on their games. During a typical season, from New Year's to around Thanksgiving, it is rare for players to take more than a couple of weeks off.

But when players left TPC Sawgrass in March, with the prospect of a long break from tournament play, many pros returned home and threw the clubs into the garage. Some found this to be a great opportunity to spend time with family, while others got reacquainted with their couches.

Some players like Gary Woodland, found ways to keep playing. When Woodland returned home to Delray Beach, Fla., the courses in the area were closed. He wanted to play every day, so he returned to his birthplace, Topeka, Kansas, where he has been working hard on his game.

South Korean Sungjae Im has been golf's ironman since turning pro in 2015 at age 17. Since 2017, he has played in 107 events, and he goes from hotel to hotel each week as he doesn't have a home base, so when things shut down he didn't know what to do.

Im stayed with a friend in Tampa, and while he spent some time fishing, he was able to play every day. Last month, he brought his coach from South Korea and has been working hard on his game, so the FedEx Cup leader is ready to go this week.

Others just started playing again in the last month, but the break helped clear their minds and allowed some aches and pains to heal.

Most of these pros have never been forced off the course for long periods, so we will have to wait and see what the ramifications of missing competition will be.

About Colonial Country Club

This is the 74th edition of the Charles Schwab Challenge, and since the tournament was first played in 1946 it has only been played on Colonial National. Only one tournament has had a longer run on the same course -- The Masters at Augusta National.

Colonial has the distinction as the only club in America that has hosted the U.S. Open (1941), the Players Championship (1975) and the U.S. Women's Open (1991).

The tournament started in 1946 because course owner John Marvin Leonard realized the USGA wasn't going to make Colonial an annual stop. Ben Hogan was a member at Colonial, and Leonard wanted to start an event so people in Hogan's hometown could watch him compete. Hogan went on to win five times at Colonial, and the course was dubbed "Hogan's Alley."

Colonial is a great course, but as technology has changed the game, it has become a relic of a bygone era, and accuracy off the tee and precision shots to the greens are important.

Colonial is one of golf's treasured layouts, but the course is hemmed in by the Trinity River and homes on all sides, so there is no way to add yardage. In 75 years, only 174 yards have been added to the course, so Mother Nature plays a big role in how challenging it will be.

If it is dry and windy, it can be a challenge. In those conditions in 2002, the course played to a 71.21 average, a shot over the course's par of 70. If the wind doesn't blow, the course turns easy, like in 2010, when the average was 68.54.

The key to Colonial is that 12 of the 14 par 4s and 5s are doglegs, and players have to throttle back off the tee to avoid running through the doglegs and into problems.

The course does have tight fairways with rough and trees, and the trees are mature and very large.

Keys to winning

Most of the great shotmakers have won at Colonial (with the exception of Tiger Woods). In 2018, Justin Rose was added to a list that includes Ben Hogan, Jack Nicklaus, Sam Snead, Arnold Palmer, Julius Boros, Gene Littler, Lanny Wadkins, Nick Price, Lee Trevino, Billy Casper, Tom Watson, Adam Scott and Phil Mickelson.

You don't see long hitters like Woods, Dustin Johnson, Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and J.B. Holmes play here often, because they don't like courses that force the driver out of their hands.

The most important stat here is Ball Striking, and odds are a player in the top 30 on that list will win. Some of the players in the top 30 in this statistic are Gary Woodland (No. 1), Webb Simpson (third) , Jon Rahm (seventh), Xander Schauffele (11th), Bryson DeChambeau (21st), Rory McIlroy (22nd), Scottie Scheffler (23rd) and Collin Morikawa (T24).

The winners are usually accurate with the driver and hit a lot of greens. Going back to 2008, when Phil Mickelson won it, only three of the 12 champions were outside the top 10 in greens hit. Kevin Kisner in 2017 was second, while 2018 champion Justin Rose and Kevin Na last year led that stat.

Experience is also important at Colonial. Since 1996, the 21 players who have won at Colonial have combined for 254 PGA Tour wins, an average of 12.1 wins.

Last year's winner, Kevin Na, won his third tournament and got another title later in the year at the Shriners. Justin Rose won two other times after winning at Colonial in 2018, 2016 champion Jordan Spieth won for the eighth time while 2014 champion Adam Scott won for the 11th time.

The fact is, rookies don't win at Colonial. Sergio Garcia got his first PGA Tour win at Colonial, but he had won previously in Europe. Ian Baker-Finch in 1989 also was a first-time winner but had won before in Australia. In the 74-year history of the event, there have been only eight first-time winners.

Scores run the gamut at Colonial, but Mother Nature could have something for the players this week. It hasn't rained recently in the Fort Worth area, so the course is firm and fast, and there is no rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the 90s, with winds blowing between 10 and 13 mph, so the course could play very tough. With conditions like this, the winner will be a player who has won many times before on the PGA Tour.

√ Make sure the ball is in play and stay out of the rough and trees off the tee.

√ Hit a lot of greens and get the ball as close to the hole as possible.

√ The firm course will mean a lot of roll in the fairways, so short hitters should do well. They will be able to keep up with long hitters, who will have to throttle back off the tee.

√ The dry greens will be firm, and it will be hard to keep the balls on the green.

√ Patience is important, especially if the wind blows. The course is very manageable, and the short length should decrease stress.

√ There is nothing tricky here, so managing their game will be of utmost importance for players this week.

One of the five should win

1. Jon Rahm

√ Was playing great before the shutdown. Was T-3 in his last start at WGC-Mexico and second at the Farmers.

√ He missed the cut at Colonial last year but was T-5 in 2018 and runner-up in 2017, so he can play well here.

√ Is seventh in Ball Striking, 27th in Greens in Regulation and first in Par Breakers in 2020.

2. Webb Simpson

√ Was having a great 2020 with wins at Phoenix, second at the RSM Classic and third at the Sony Open. He plays well on ball-striker courses.

√ Has mixed results at Colonial. In five starts, was fifth in 2017 and T-3 in 2016, when the conditions were similar to what this week should bring.

√ Is third in Ball Striking, seventh in Greens in Regulation, first in Par Breakers and 13th in Strokes Gained Putting in 2020.

3. Rory McIlroy

√ Is playing for the first time at Colonial, but he could do well this week if he is smart and the driver stays in the bag most of the time.

√ Was fifth at Mexico, T-5 at the Palmer and Genesis, T-3 at Farmers. Is still struggling in final rounds -- he shot 76 on Sunday at the Palmer.

√ Is second in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, T-18 in Greens in Regulation, fifth in Par Breakers in 2020, and all are key stats for Colonial.

4. Gary Woodland

√ His only start at Colonial was T-73 in 2012, but he has been practicing hard in Kansas, and his game was sharp before the break.

√ In his last two starts before the break was T-8 at Honda and T-12 in Mexico.

√ He leads the PGA Tour in the most important stat here (Ball Striking) in 2020, is sixth in Greens in Regulation and T-25 in Par Breakers.

5. Justin Thomas

√ Playing at Colonial for the first time, he is smart and will learn fast how to throttle back on the course.

√ Has won twice in 2020, at CJ Cup and Sentry, and was T-6 at WGC-Mexico in his last start.

√ Is T-37 in Ball Striking, fifth in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation and second in Par Breakers.

Players you should consider

6. Rickie Fowler

√ He missed the cut last year at Colonial, but he was T-5 in 2012 so knows how to play here

√ Was T-5 at the Sentry, T-10 at American Express and finished T-18 at the Arnold Palmer even though he shot 77-74 on the weekend.

√ Is 54th in Driving Accuracy, 149th in Greens in Regulation, T-49 in Strokes Gained Putting. But he showed something at the TaylorMade Driving Relief last month and appears ready to play well again.

7. Matt Kuchar

√ Solid record at Colonial, with three top-10s in 11 starts, including a second in 2013 and T-6 in 2016.

√ Game showed promise as he finished T-2 at Genesis Open.

√ Is 14th in Fairways Hit but 104th in Greens in Regulation. It helps that he is 14th in Strokes Gained Putting and 44th in Par Breakers.

8. Harris English

√ Has played at Colonial five times and was second in 2016 and T-5 in 2012. Last year, he finished T-20.

√ Played well early in the 2020 season with four top-six finishes in his first five starts. His last start was T-9 at Arnold Palmer.

√ Is fifth in Ball Striking for 2020, fifth in Greens in Regulation and 39th in Strokes Gained Putting.

9. Sungjae Im

√ Another great player who did good before the break. In his last two weeks, he won the Honda and finished third at the Arnold Palmer, but he slowed down over the weekend, shooting 74-73.

√ Missed the cut last year at Colonial, but he will be refreshed and ready after spending three months in Tampa working on his game.

√ His stats have gotten better as the year goes on. He is 22nd in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green, 34th in Proximity to Hole, T-13 in Par Breakers.

10. Patrick Reed

√ Has played at Colonial three times, the last in 2016 when he was T-15.

√ Won at Mexico and was T-15 at Arnold Palmer, which was great considering he shot 80 in the third round.

√ From tee to green his stats are poor, but around the green he is great. He is 39th in Scrambling, third in Strokes Gained Putting and seventh in Par Breakers.

11. Kevin Na

√ Is the defending champion and was fourth in 2018.

√ Won at Shriners, was T-9 at Mexico.

√ Is 15th in Strokes Gained tee-to-Green, 7th in Strokes Gained Putting, plays well in wind.

12. Steve Stricker

√ This isn't a mistake. He is probably the shortest hitter in the field, but with dry fairways and longer players having to throttle back, Stricker will be right up there.

√ Has won at Colonial and was T-7 in 2017, so he is good on the course.

√ His stats are terrible, but he's great on the course and the conditions help him.

13. Jim Furyk

√ Another over-50 player who should do great with the dry conditions. He has played in the event 22 times and has seven top-10 finishes with the best being a T-2 in 2007.

√ Hasn't shown much this year but leads the PGA Tour in Driving Accuracy and Greens in Regulation.

Players who are rested and ready

14. Brooks Koepka

√ He had a lot of rest to heal his wounded knee and was second in his only start at Colonial in 2018.

√ After a slow start to his year, he did some work with old coach Butch Harmon, and it took 10 minutes to find four swing problems, which they fixed quickly.

√ Despite his stats being poor for 2020, this week should be a big comeback week for him.

15. Ryan Palmer

√ Is a member of Colonial, and in 16 starts he has four top-10s, including a T-3 in 2016 and T-6 last year.

√ Was T-4 at the Sony Open, on a course like Colonial that requires drives to be in the fairway.

√ Is T-40 in Ball Striking, 19th in Strokes Gained Off-the-Tee and 29th in Par Breakers

16. Jordan Spieth

√ Has a great record at Colonial. Won in 2016, was T-2 in 2015 and '17. In 28 rounds, his worst score is 73, and he has been under par 21 of the 28 rounds.

√ The break could help Spieth, who needs to get back to how he swung the club in 2015.

√ Was T-9 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.

17. Justin Rose

√ After playing great in his career, took big dollars to switch from TaylorMade after 20 years to play with Honma clubs.

√ He won the 2019 Farmers after the change, but he soon struggled to hit the ball well.

√ Switched back to his old clubs at the Arnold Palmer, and returning to Colonial, where he won in 2018, could help him regain some lost magic.

Don't expect much

18. Dustin Johnson

√ Has had mixed results in two tries at Colonial. Was T-14 in 2014 and T-74 in 2008, and Colonial doesn't seem to be one of his favorite courses.

√ Game was coming along as he was T-10 at Genesis and T-48 in Mexico in his last two starts before the break.

√ None of his stats for the year are impressive, and he didn't fare well in the Skins Game a couple of weeks ago, so he could still be rusty.

19. Xander Schauffele

√ Has had a tough time at Colonial, missing the cut in 2019 and '18.

√ Has had mixed results since he was runner-up at the Sentry, with his best finish T-14 at Mexico.

√ Has been great from tee to green and is 11th in Ball Striking. Has struggled on the greens and is 119th in Strokes Gained Putting. If he putts better, he will score better, but this might not be the right event for him.

20. Bryson DeChambeau

√ He has struggled a lot at Colonial, mostly due to poor driving. In four starts, he has missed the cut three times.

√ He was red-hot before the break, finishing T-5 at Genesis, second in Mexico and fourth at the Arnold Palmer. During the stretch, he was 26 under, but any momentum may be lost from the break.

√ Is 122nd in Fairway Accuracy, 52nd in Greens in Regulation and 22nd in Strokes Gained Putting.

A solid no this week

21. Jason Day

√ Has played the Colonial four times, with the last in 2011, and he isn't a fan of the course.

√ Was fourth at Pebble Beach, but he missed the cut at the Genesis and had back problems last week at the Palmer. forcing him to withdraw after four holes.

√ Unfortunately, no matter how much time off he has, his back is a ticking time bomb that he doesn't want to gamble on.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-10-2020, 06:50 PM

Rick Gehman

PGA

Gehman, using an expansive database of golf statistics, course data and betting odds, creates advanced models and back-tests them constantly. These models produced 10 outright winners in the past year -- including Chez Reavie at 50-1 in the Travelers and Patrick Reed at 40-1 in the Northern Trust among eight PGA Tour winners -- plus a $10,000 DraftKings win at The Masters.

At the 2020 Genesis Invitational, Gehman cashed his 16-1 bet on Joel Dahmen making the Top 10 -- he finished tied for fifth. Then at the WGC-Mexico, Gehman scored a 7.5-1 cash on Tyrell Hatton finishing as the "Top English player." Gehman continued to roll at the Honda Classic, cashing his Top 5 bet on Byeong Hun An for another 7.5-1 score.

For the season, Gehman's best bets in this article are up more than 13 units -- a return of more than $1,300 on the standard $100 unit!

Now Gehman, co-host of "The First Cut" podcast on CBS Sports, has analyzed all the available odds for the Charles Schwab Challenge and revealed his picks to win, top prop bets and head-to-head picks. With the PGA Tour returning from a three-month hiatus, Gehman loves two massive long shots of at least 45-1 to take home the trophy. You NEED to see his picks before you bet this tournament.

Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) is a co-host of The First Cut podcast (CBS Sports) and a regular contributor to The Pat Mayo Experience (DraftKings).

Here are Gehman's best bets with analysis:

Season Recap

It's been three months since we've had PGA TOUR action, but we will look to pick up right where we left off. Since the start of this article series (six events), we are a net positive to the tune of 13.08 units. It's surprising to even be up that much considering we have not hit an outright winner yet, despite having two runners-up in the last three weeks. Those close call losses have been offset by crushing the Top 5 and Top 10 markets for +17.73 units. We've also solidified the bankroll with head-to-head matchups, going 4-1 in the last four events.

Event Preview

The long layoff creates an additional challenge when handicapping these golfers. We cannot reliably trust recent TOUR results since these guys have been on the shelf for so long. Additionally, with rust expected to play a large part in the golfer performance the first few weeks, I'll be embracing more volatile results and avoiding some of the larger favorites. Colonial CC is a staple on the TOUR and will be a difficult challenge for the first start back. Colonial was the 7th most difficult course and 3rd most difficult Par 70 on TOUR last season.

Winner - Jordan Spieth (+4500) - 0.35 units

Top 5 - Jordan Spieth (+900) - 0.40 units

I've written off Spieth for over a year as we close in on the three year anniversary of his last victory (2017 Open Championship). However, I can no longer "wait and see" on Spieth. A three-month layoff and a potential hard reset is exactly what could spark Spieth back into the winners circle. Few golfers on TOUR will work as hard as Spieth and now he gets to head to his native Texas to play Colonial where he won in 2016, finished 2nd in both 2025 & 2017 and finished 8th last year. This is now an opportunity to be "early" on Spieth, rather than "late."

Winner - Justin Rose (+5000) - 0.45 units

Top 5 - Justin Rose (+900) - 0.35 units

We are not far removed from Justin Rose being the #1 ranked player in the world. After a split from his club manufacturer, Honma, before the PLAYERS Championship, Rose has had three months to get dialed into his new clubs. That's a major benefit for the 2018 Charles Schwab Challenge Champion who will look to return to his early 2019 form.

Top 10 - Ryan Palmer (+700) - 0.75 units

Palmer is a member at Colonial, which is not always a benefit. We've heard Palmer say that Colonial "doesn't look right" during tournament week with all the grandstands, fans and everything else that goes into a golf tournament. Well, Palmer won't have to deal with those things this week and Colonial will look much closer to a regular day on the course. Palmer finished 3rd in 2016 and 6th last year so I expect him to contend again in this edition.

Top 10 - Daniel Berger (+650) - 0.33 units

Top 20 - Daniel Berger (+280) - 0.42 units

Berger was one of the hottest players on TOUR before the shutdown. He was trending towards victory with a 9th place finish at the Waste Management Open, 5th at Pebble Beach and 4th at the Honda Classic. If he can keep any semblance of his form prior to the shutdown, these two bets should be achievable.

Top 20 - Jazz Janewattananond (+750) - 0.4 units

The 39th ranked player in the world is being priced as basically the 100th best player in this field in the outright market. That pricing is translating to his Top 20 number which is a much more logical bet to make on Janewattannond. He's been keeping sharp in the U.S. on mini tours and may have the most competitive rounds under his belt in the last three months than anyone else in this field.

First Round Leader - Keegan Bradley (100-1) - 0.10 units

First Round Leader - Joel Dahmen (70-1) - 0.10 units

First Round Leader bets are their own animal. It's about embracing the most volatility that you can, a single round of golf, and for that reason I tend to stay away from the top of the betting board. Additionally, there are some guys who inherently play better on Thursday without the bright lights shining on them. Since January 2019, there have been five golfers who have led a tournament on three separate occasions (the most on TOUR). Those names include Rory McIlroy, Brooks Koepka and Justin Thomas which is to be expected. The other two are Keegan Bradley and Joel Dahmen who have routinely found themselves on the top of the leaderboard after 18 holes. I fire small bets on long shots to be the First Round Leader, because hitting a small number a year turns you into a winner.

Tournament Matchup - Harris English (+105) over Joaquin Niemann (-110)

I love targeting matchups against volatile golfers, which describes Joaquin Niemann. That's natural for a 21 year old on TOUR who has already hoisted his first trophy at this season's Greenbrier. However, it was three straight missed cuts to end his "pre-shutdown" season. Harris English, on the other hand, piled up three straight Top 20s at the Waste Management, Honda Classic and Arnold Palmer Invitational. Additionally, English played in an event in Sea Island Georgia over the weekend that was stacked with PGA TOUR and Korn Ferry Tour pros. He fired a 66-65 to finish 2nd.

Tournament Prop - Top GB & Ireland Player - Justin Rose (+550) - 0.33 units

I generally don't like having this much exposure to one player, but Rose makes such a compelling case and the odds are full of value. This prop is likely going to end up being a three horse race between Rory McIlory (+110), Matthew Fitzpatrick (+550) and Justin Rose. No offense to Fitzpatrick, but there is no way he should have the same odds as Rose to cash this ticket. These are better odds than Rose to finish Top 10 (+450) and, while McIlroy is in the mix, there are a lot of situations where this group winner doesn't have to finish that highly in the tournament results.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 06:59 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1

#3 Tri Saint Lorenzo	MSW dropper has some solid races showing against better and now takes the big plunge, can settle off what looks to be enough speed, and will be a square price too; upset special.
#8 Eagles Palace	ML favorite was twice 4th for a tag on turf and was in a pair of solid MSWs last summer on dirt, so he could wake up here, though this 9-5 ML is no bargain; plenty scary, but no lock.
#9 Warfront Fighter	MSW dropper has what the top pair don't, and that's upside, as he's run just twice, though neither were any great shakes, so he'll need to wake up to factor; mixed signals in this corner.
Race Summary	That 10-1 ML on the pick seems way too juicy when you look at his last and the fact he's been facing only MSW runners, but even 6-1 or so seems fair, since he looks s good as anyone on paper and has every right to move forward on the drop, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since just maybe he does fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to the sequence right off the bat.

Belmont Park - Race #4

#2 Ownitifyouwantit	Price player ran hard on the lead when last seen at Aqu in Feb. and just-missed, and while this is a solid crew, there's no one here to hound him early; come and catch the pick.
#7 Cousin Andrew	Stiff ML favorite will be bet hard for Brown and figures off his two turns, but neither were any great shakes, so sure, he can win, but his margin is a slim one; underlaid favorite.
#8 Creed	Dangerous runner was a solid 2nd at Tampa on debut for Shug, who never cranks them, and now he stretches out, and that 650k price tag says they expect a lot; come blow up.
Race Summary	The risk-reward is there on the 2, especially since you know Carmouche will have him on the lead, and while he's not as sexy as some of the others, that last run was better than anything they've done, so play him in all the slots, and especially the early Pk5/Pk4, since there's a good chance he falls through the wagering cracks, which means a win might play a lot longer than it should, especially in both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#2 No Word	Lightly raced Pletcher runner was a solid 3rd off the break at GP, which gives him a big leg up on a lot of these, are several of the main contenders are coming off extended layofs, while this dude just shook the rust off last time; look out.
#4 Value Engineering	The chalk for Brown is one of the layoff runners, as he hasn't been seen since a head loss here in Sept., and while this barn excels off the l180+-day break (28%), spotting the pick recency won't make it easy, at false odds too; second-best.
#7 Mr. Alec	Fellow long layoff sort hasn't been out since his own neck defeat in Nov., so even though Clement is firing and is 20% off this break, he too could need this, and is another who will be bet a bit too much to find out; tabbing for down the road.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 2, even though he doesn't have any questions like his two big rivals, and that means there will be enough risk-reward to see if he can get to the two favorite's level, so play him in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win will add plenty of value to both sequences, and if he's going to be the 4 and 7, today might be the best time to do it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 06:59 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Charles Town - Race #2

#6 Makin Us Look Good	Price will get shorter tonight, but that last run was a big improvement, and something similar probably gets the job done with these.
#3 Peaceful Child	Added ground might work in her favor after a decent finishing effort in the debut run, and any step forward would make her a threat with this group.
#5 How Is She	Needs much better than the comeback race if she's going to land this, and she doesn't appear to have quite as much upside as a couple others in here.
Race Summary	Makin Us Look Good might go from 43/1 last out to the favorite today, but she catches a group in which a repeat of that last try would be good enough to score, making her the one to beat.

Charles Town - Race #6

#8 Fanniebellefleming	Steps up and gets protected off the claim, which is always a good sign, and she can get a really nice trip near the top with these. Worth a look.
#2 Silk Stocking	Tactical type will get a trip similar to the top choice, and her form has been super reliable this year. She's going to be tough with these.
#1 Banana Anna	Cruised with an allowance bunch last time out, and though something similar would hit pretty hard in this spot, I don't really trust her to fully run back to that effort which looked more like an exception than a rule.
Race Summary	Fanniebellefleming steps into starter company while protected, and that's still a confident move. She needs her best stuff, but the barn has been off to a good start since re-opening.

Charles Town - Race #8

#5 Ocean Lily	Probably needs a small misfire from some of her main competitors, but she's a pretty reliable type who isn't all that far off what it might take to win this. Interesting
#4 Win Then Grin	Tactical type makes her local debut with a string of Laurel races that look very competitive with these. Not out of the question, but the new footing is at least a little bit of a concern.
#9 Azzurra	Forward player will have to work out a trip from a wide draw in this type of race where ground loss could play a key part in her chances if she's unable to get near the rail early.
Race Summary	Ocean Lily might get a little bit overlooked in this spot with Win Then Grin and Azzurra likely to take some cash, and while she's not reliably as fast as those two, Win Then Grin has the new surface to handle and Azzurra draws wide with a race configuration that could negatively impact her.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 06:59 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#2 LEGAL BETTOR	Was going well before the shutdown, re-united with old connection.
#1 LEADER TONIGHT	Consistent, versatile, moves outside in, beat top one.
#7 GOLDINTHEBADLANDS	Finished 1-2-3 in his last four starts at shorter prices.
Race Summary	Legal Bettor rallied into soft middle fractions two back, won off the claim, then was re-claimed. He draws favorably and joins the entire field off the layoff. Play 2-1 and 2-7 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #4

#10 ONGOING ROYALTY	Hope the barn’s success remains ongoing with this firster.
#3 SIXTEEN	Has loyal following, stayed flat in winning qualifier.
#6 REMEMBER TITANS	Steady check-getter at 2, returns on winning tune-up.
Race Summary	Ongoing Royalty, a son of Hambletonian winner Royalty For Life, draws difficult post assignment for his debut, but the barn’s horses have come back running, some at good odds. Play a 3-6-10 exacta box.

Scioto Downs - Race #5

#2 ROOTS N WINGS	Flew home for third, draws better post, value remains.
#1 FORTIFY	Held his own in fall sire stakes, romped in qualifier, one to beat.
#9 JOHNNY ROCKETTE	Failed at odds on in seasonal debut, gets second-time Lasix.
Race Summary	Roots N Wings closed with a rush to finish third at 54-1 in faster division of split race. He’s worth a price stab off that comeback effort. Play a 1-2-9 exacta box.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 07:00 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Thistledown - Race #4

#5 Gentle Kiss	Longer trips haven't worked out lately after she won three straight not that long ago; gets a rapid pace to chase and can finish well on the turnback in distance.
#6 Meet Me Half Way	Has rallied against good company and won an allowance going long two races back; needs to get going earlier but like the top pick should benefit from the pace.
#1 Flat Out Super	Takes a step up in class after two convincing wins; has speed and will get a good run inside.
Race Summary	Gentle Kiss didn't fire going long in her last two and can make a big run at this leaders in this six-furlong race; capable of running past them late in the game.

Thistledown - Race #7

#5 Altissimo	Was 2nd in the G3 DeFrancis Dash and had a bad trip in his latest; also won a 100-grander at Delaware and he clearly doesn't need Ohio-bred company. This 17-time winner has nearly $800,000 in earnings.
#1 Mo Dont No	Ended 2019 with a stakes win at Mahoning Valley and likely will be a big player from the start of this one; has won 19 of 40 lifetime starts.
#6 Woodland Walk	Is 8 of 18 at Thistle and will show speed from the outside. Dangerous if he gets clear early.
Race Summary	Altissimo has a ton of class and can adjust to any pace; had excuses for his last one and can recover in his 1st of the year.

Thistledown - Race #8

#5 Wolf Eyes	Has had plenty of chances to get her 2nd career win but has shown signs up improvement in her last two; has had a mild rally and pick up the leader late.
#4 Chit Chatting	Drops out of allowance races and was a maiden winner over this strip last year; takes a sharp class drop.
#6 Miss Irish Boss	Drops out of stronger races and should be able to respond to this major step down the class ladder.
Race Summary	Wolf Eyes is one of the few in here that are heading in the right direction in their career and will likely make a late run.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 09:59 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park

Canterbury Park - Race 7	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Optional Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 97 • Purse: $25,500 • Post: 7:40P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR STATE BRED OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $20,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 11 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $16,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES). MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $30,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * KING OF THE COURT: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/su rface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. PRINCIPE GUILHERME: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. JERRYS PRIDENJOY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Traine r combination return on investment is at least +20.
1	KING OF THE COURT	5/1	9/2
8	PRINCIPE GUILHERME	3/1	9/2
3	J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN	4/1	9/1
6	JERRYS PRIDENJOY	6/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
10	TIN BADGE	10	15/1	Front-runner	96	87	79.0	77.2	61.7
5	AWESOME EMMIT	5	12/1	Front-runner	98	87	66.0	81.0	69.5
6	JERRYS PRIDENJOY	6	6/1	Stalker	93	89	85.8	87.2	77.7
3	J. E.'S HANDMEDOWN	3	4/1	Stalker	94	96	77.8	90.6	83.6
4	DROP OF GOLDEN SUN	4	15/1	Stalker	99	90	74.6	80.2	69.7
1	KING OF THE COURT	1	5/1	Stalker	110	97	72.0	85.6	80.1
9	MAN U	9	12/1	Stalker	92	82	70.6	83.6	70.6
8	PRINCIPE GUILHERME	8	3/1	Trailer	104	103	55.8	90.4	87.4
2	GOT EVEN SMARTER	2	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	92	85	66.9	82.9	63.9
7	SPEEDING KID	7	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	98	85	71.2	83.6	70.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 10:00 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 2	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (2-3) / Pick 3 (Races 2-3-4) Pick 4 (Races 2-3-4-5)
Maiden Special • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 53 • Purse: $27,000 • Post: 7:30P
FOR ACCREDITED WEST VIRGINIA-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES THREE YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 120 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MAKIN US LOOK GOOD is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAKIN US LOOK GOOD: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PEACEFUL CHILD : Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. HOW IS SHE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
6	MAKIN US LOOK GOOD	7/2	5/2
3	PEACEFUL CHILD	4/1	6/1
5	HOW IS SHE	5/2	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	MAKIN US LOOK GOOD	6	7/2	Front-runner	57	45	61.1	41.2	37.7
8	SING FROSTY	8	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	44	36	42.0	34.6	23.6
5	HOW IS SHE	5	5/2	Trailer	54	48	22.7	40.6	33.6
3	PEACEFUL CHILD	3	4/1	Trailer	61	46	13.3	43.6	41.6
1	COPELANQUIKZIP	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	32.6	28.2	19.2
2	CELIA'S PRIDE	2	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	43	46	30.9	32.4	23.4
7	KATALIMA	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	21.7	30.9	19.9

Unknown Running Style: SILVER AND BLUES (9/2) [Jockey: Latchman Reshawn - Trainer: Cooney Susan S].

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 10:00 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Evangeline Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9500 Class Rating: 71

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 DICTATOR 4/1
# 2 THREE RUN HOMER 5/2
# 1A DE BIRD IS DA WORD 9/5

DICTATOR gets the edge as the wager in here. Faucheux has this colt racing well and is a respectable choice based on the decent Equibase speed figs recorded in route races recently. The average class rating of 72 makes this horse hard to beat. His 72 average has this colt with among the most competitive speed figures for this event. THREE RUN HOMER - His 62 average has this gelding with among the best speed figs for this event. When this jock and conditioner team up, bettors often make money. DE BIRD IS DA WORD - Have to wager on this gelding with the sound earnings per start in dirt route contests. Has run very well when racing a dirt route race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 10:01 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #7 - Post: 3:43pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,800 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#8 HIGH POWERED (ML=8/1)
#10 OSVALDO (ML=9/2)
#7 COLOMBIANO (ML=15/1)

HIGH POWERED - You have to expect a better performance out of this gelding in today's event. He put in a good effort on the backstretch on March 7th only to run evenly in the stretch drive. The rider/conditioner duo of Ouzts and Anderson has a strong ROI together. I like the hard fact that this gelding's last rating, 84, is tops in this group. Three consecutive improved speed ratings (46-71-84) make this one a strong contender. OSVALDO - I like that most recent effort on May 27th at Tampa Bay Downs where he finished second. Should do well in this race. Weight shift of -6 from May 27th race at Tampa Bay Downs. COLOMBIANO - You have to expect a better performance out of this horse in today's contest. He put in a good effort on the backstretch on March 20th only to run evenly in the stretch drive. You always have to be on the watch for profit making jockey/conditioner tandems; we have it right here.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 STARLIN (ML=3/1), #3 GRADE (ML=5/1), #4 BORA BORA (ML=6/1),

STARLIN - I'd like to see better recent efforts with morning line odds of 3/1. When checking today's class rating, he will have to notch a much better speed rating than in the last race to be competitive in this dirt route. GRADE - Didn't end up on the board on May 21st after the long layoff. Be doubtful of this thoroughbred this time out. Tough to put any money on this gelding on the win end. Likes to hit the board though. BORA BORA - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any thoroughbred that finishes second and third as often as this entrant does. This horse ran his best fig in awhile. May bounce and run poorly off that effort.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 HIGH POWERED on the nose if you can get odds of 7/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,10] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-11-2020, 10:02 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $6000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. WEIGHT, 121 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MARCH 6, 2020 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE JANUARY 21, 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 NONE LIKE CURRY 2/1
# 5 VIDEO MOV 9/5
# 9 DOBBY HASNO MASTER 5/2

My choice for this race is NONE LIKE CURRY. Had one of the strongest speed figures of this group in his last contest. VIDEO MOV - Has been racing strongly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Has strong early lick and should fare admirably against this group of animals.

Service Plays Thursday 6/11/20

Service Plays Thursday 6/11/20

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