Service Plays Saturday 6/13/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:08 AM

Kyle Marley

UFC

He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 15 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up more than $20,000!

Marley has hit a WHOPPING nine consecutive UFC main-event picks, a streak that includes five straight upsets! Last week at UFC 250, Marley called a dominant performance for featherweight champ Amanda Nunes (-600) against Felicia Spencer (+475) in the main event. He also predicted a win for Cody Garbrandt (-145) against Raphael Assuncao (+125) in the bantamweight co-main event. Anyone who has consistently followed Marley is WAY UP.

Jessica Eye (-110) vs. Cynthia Calvillo (-110): Calvillo via decision

Neither of these fighters have gone five rounds before so this will be the first for both of them, but I doubt cardio comes into play. I think Eye is the better boxer and I'd give Calvillo the wrestling-grappling edge. I think Calvillo can hang on the feet because of her pace and aggressiveness, but I think she should look for takedowns. If she can get them, she could lock up a submission or just use them to steal close rounds. But I give the slight edge to Calvillo in this fight for that reason.

Marvin Vettori (-200) vs. Karl Roberson (+175): Vettori via decision

I think Vettori is the more well-rounded fighter and probably has a slight edge on the feet and the mat. I think Roberson might have more power and he is a solid striker and decent wrestler himself. The line looks about right and I think Vettori wins this fight more times than he loses it.

Merab Dvalishvili (-370) vs. Ray Borg (+305): Dvalishvili via decision

Dvalishvili is the much higher-paced fighter and the better wrestler, so I don't see Borg having success with takedowns. Borg showed decent hands his last fight, but he doesn't throw them enough to make me think he has any shot on the feet. Borg needs a back take, a guillotine or a reversal to work his way to a submission. Seems like a tall order, so the edge goes to Dvalishvili.

Andre Fili (-220) vs. Charles Jourdain (+190): Fili via decision

I think Fili has the more technical striking with better footwork, and he has the grappling edge as well. Jourdain probably has more power, so he can definitely keep this close on the feet and possibly get a knockout. Fili should be favored because of his grappling but, if I knew this would stay standing, I would have to take a shot on Jourdain at this line. Still, Fili is the pick.

Jordan Espinosa (-155) vs. Mark de La Rosa (+135): Espinosa via decision

This is probably a loser-leaves-town matchup. I give the striking and wrestling edge to Espinosa, but I give the grappling edge to De La Rosa. I think Espinosa should look to keep this standing and, if he can do that, he wins a clear decision. I think De La Rosa is live if this fight hits the mat and I thought about picking him by submission. I just have a hard time seeing him get the fight to the mat and I am not a believer in his striking at all.

Kevin Aguilar (-155) vs. Charles Rosa (+135): Aguilar via decision

Rosa is coming off a devastating loss just a month ago, so I am not sure what that does to his confidence. He is the better grappler, so I am sure he is looking to get that bad taste out of his mouth with this quick turnaround. I like Aguilar on the feet and I think he has the takedown defense to keep this standing the majority of the fight. I don't know that I am as confident in Aguilar as the line suggests, but I give him the slight edge.

Julia Avila (-500) vs. Gina Mazany (+400): Avila via TKO

Mazany is going to need to get this fight to the mat to have any chance, and I think she would need to win two rounds with wrestling because I don't see her getting a submission. I think Avila is way better on the feet and that is where I think most of this fight will take place. If Avila doesn't get the finish, then she probably gets a clear striking win as long as she stays off her back.

Ryan Benoit (-115) vs. Tyson Nam (-105): Nam via decision

This should be a slower-paced striking match. Both guys throw with power so either could get a knockout, but they are only 125 pounders, so I think we probably see a striking battle for 15 minutes. Neither guy lands strikes at a high rate, so it's hard to have any real lean here and I think this is a 50-50 fight. I think Nam is the more well-rounded striker, but Benoit is younger and faster. I will take Nam as my pick because he is the more experienced guy.

Jordan Griffin (-180) vs. Darrick Minner (+160): Griffin via submission

This is a rematch from two years ago when they fought outside of the UFC. In that fight, Minner was winning early and then he was finished toward the end of the second round. That is how a lot of his fights tend to go. He comes out of the gates hot and sometimes he finishes, but if he doesn't, he ends up getting finished himself. I think there is a good chance this fight goes the same way. I see him winning round 1 and maybe he finishes there as well, but I think he is live for about half of the fight. If it goes past that point, then Griffin probably gets a finish of his own. I think Griffin wins this fight more than he loses, so I will take him as my pick.

Anthony Ivy (-190) vs. Christian Aguilera (+170): Aguilera via TKO

Aguilera is kind of a kill-or-be-killed fighter. He comes out looking for the knockout early and, if he doesn't get it, he usually slows down as the fight goes along. I think he is the better striker, so I am going to lean with him as my pick.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:08 AM

^^^

Ryan Benoit (-115) vs. Tyson Nam (-105): Nam via decision

Zarrukh Adashev replaced Ryan Benoit and is fighting Tyson Nam

Merab Dvalishvili (-370) vs. Ray Borg (+305): Dvalishvili via decision

Ray Borg is out ... Dvalishvili fighting Gustavo Lopez

Jordan Griffin (-180) vs. Darrick Minner (+160): Griffin via submission

Darrick Minner is out ... Fight vs. Jordan Griffin is cancelled

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:10 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

June 13, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The Meadowlands has a big 13-race card scheduled with the Early 0.50 Pick 4 starting in Race 6. The sequence has a $50,000 guaranteed pool and will be my focus. On Friday, the driver with the hottest hands was Yannick Gingras with three pictures. The leading trainers on the night were Ron Burke and Nancy Takter, both had two trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

1-Genius Man (9/2)-Sharp looking qualifiers and from the rail it's best to respect. Leaving from this spot should mean Miller puts in play and that kind of trip makes this colt a threat.
3-Montefalco N (5-1)-Magical Acres qualifier was good and Laisx may help even more so tonight. Tetrick should work a trip in a competitive race.
7-Manticore (7/2)-Controlled both qualifiers from the word go and sizzled the back half in 55.2 on 6/9. Not sure it will be so easy this time but looks like a player.
9-Save Me A Dance (3-1)-Gaitway Farm tune-ups, both on Lasix, were very good but the question here is the trip. Should have a big shot if can get on the engine without much strain, otherwise things get more difficult.

Race 7

3-Declan Seelster (8-1)-Both qualifiers were fine but loses Dunn to #5. Looks like a price shot as Tetrick can get a close-up trip and has been facing tougher.
5-The Devils Own N (3-1)-Barn won 2 of 3 last weekend and New Zealand bred has some big speed. 6-year-old is a player but so far has been a bit camera shy. Does have a win and a second-place finish in two Big M starts.
8-Blood Money (7/2)-Classy, Sweet Lou 4-year-old makes first start for Pelling and can grind it out if dialed on high. This barn did have a win in three starts last weekend.

Race 8

1-Freedom Warrior (7/2)-Qualified on 5/30 with a 54.1 back half to hold on for the win. This will be debut for the Lare barn and 1st Big M start for 3-year-old who won >$148K in 2019. Using, but would have liked another qualifier.
2-Lake Charles (3-1)-Tuned up nicely with dual qualifiers at Goshen for the Schniktter barn who had 2 wins last weekend. Taking a swing with 3-year-olds versus older. My take is they deserve respect, and the post edge will make a difference.

Race 9

2-Prairie Panther (8-1)-Comes off two nice qualifiers and has done well facing tough company. Winner of >$144k in 2019 likes to race with the lead and can do so here. Has a perfect 1-1 record at the Big M and barn won 4 races last week.
3-Trojan Banner N (7/2)-Should fit with this crew and the King barn won 2 of 4 last weekend. If pace is hot chances go up but might be over bet.
6-Thinkbig Dreambig (3-1)-Qualified at the Big M on 5/30 and smoked the 2nd half in 54.3. Program chalk was only 1-8 in 2019 but was facing tough customers like Lather Up and Jimmy Freight to name a couple. Looks like a major player.

0.50 Early Pick 4

1,3,7,9/3,5,8/1,2/2,3,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:10 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Park Wagering Strategies - 6/13/20

June 13, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Santa Anita
Saturday, June 13, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Handicappers also are encouraged to access Jeff’s Daily Santa Anita Workout Analysis (see below), an exclusive report containing commentary, fractional times, grades, and a link to the video of the actual workout by each race’s key contenders.

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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Day Makers:

Woodbine – 7th race. Post Time: 4:21 ET
4-Clayton (3-1)

Was one of the most impressive debut maiden winners of the season last November when he overcame a slow start to win by more than seven furlongs in a fast, highly-rated affair over the Woodbine all-weather surface. Returns in the 6F listed Woodstock Stakes after wintering in Florida, where he worked well enough to expect a major effort in his sophomore bow. The son of Bodemeister should develop into an outstanding 3-year-old and while today’s assignment clearly is a step up in class, the son of Bodemeister should offer good wagering value at or near his morning line of 3-1.
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Belmont Park – 7th race. Post Time 4:32 ET
5 - Cost Benefit-G2 (5/2)

Debuting English-bred filly has done everything in the morning like a top prospect and should be plenty fit and ready for a winning effort in this maiden turf miler for older fillies and mares. The daughter of the top class British stallion Dansili goes for the powerful C. Brown/J. Rosario team (42%) and catches a field that she simply should out-class. Let’s hope we can get close to her morning line of 7/2 in both the win pool and in rolling exotic play.
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Woodbine – 8th race. Post Time: 4:53 ET
10 – New York Groove (5/2)

She’s unbeaten in four starts sprinting (each over a synthetic surface) so we’re expecting this multi-stakes winning daughter of Verrazano to regain her best form in this six furlong listed stakes for 3-year-old fillies. Drawn comfortably outside, shortening to her best trip and showing a bullet five furlong drill (:59 flat, fastest of 24) over the local main strip, the M. Trombetta-trained filly is plenty fast of numbers and projects to enjoy an ideal second flight stalking position. At 5/2 on the morning line she’s a play in the win pool and in the exotics as well.
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Today’s Workout Analysis: View PDF File
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RACE 1: Post 1:00 PT. Grade: C
Use: 4-Mamba Queen; 6-Spicy Sommelier; 7-Smoothlikebuttah

Forecast: Mamba Queen, a Square Eddie filly out of a half-sister to the multiple stakes-winning sprinter Eddie Haskell (also by Square Eddie) brought $70,000 at the OBS March Sale after drilling a quarter mile in :21 flat but was under urging to do so and never changed leads. Though the local tab doesn’t jump off the page, she obviously can run some. Spicy Sommelier shows a modest work tab at San Luis Rey Downs but has the red-hot combo of P. Miller and F. Prat in her corner and on that factor alone you have to use her. Among those that have raced, Smoothlikebuttah was a private purchase by clients of S. Knapp after walking out of the gate and then rallying to be a distant fourth in her debut in late May. Let’s hope the daughter of Mr. Big doesn’t pull that same stunt today. These are the three we’ll be using in our rolling exotics in a race that we’ll otherwise pass.
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RACE 2: Post 1:30 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Smiling Annie; 5-Much Macho Woman

Forecast: Smiling Annie lands a lovely inside draw (so effective when the rails are up) and should settle into a comfortable ground-saving trip while on or near the lead in a field without much early zip. She’s better than her last pair of races show and has a nice recent three-furlong bullet blowout (:35.1, fastest of 18) to have her right on edge. Mucho Macho Woman, freshened since February and training well for R. Ellis, earned a number two runs back that would win this race, but that runaway score came on the dirt and she’s unproven on grass. From her outside (of only five) draw, she’ll no doubt try to pop and go. We’ll double the race in our rolling exotics while slightly preferring Smiling Annie on top.
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RACE 3: Post 2:00 PT. Grade: X
Use: 1-Manresa; 6-Our Bonnie Lass

Forecast: Trainer T. R. Bell III holds the aces in this bottom-rung maiden claiming main track miler with Manresa (4/5) and Our Bonnie Lass (2-1) sure to receive the bulk of the play. On pure numbers Manresa is the much better of the two but has been pretty much exposed, while first time Lasix user ‘Lass, with just one start on her resume, may have more room to improve after closing a huge gap to be third sprinting. We’ll pass the race other than to include both in our rolling exotics in a truly forgettable affair.
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RACE 4: Post 2:32 PT. Grade: X
Use: 3-Worthy Turk; 4-Seeking Refuge

Forecast: Worthy Turk, a good second while more than four lengths clear of the rest in a similar restricted (nw-2) $25,000 turf miler last month, is 6/5 on the morning line to handle this task for the P. Miller/F. Prat team and should have little difficulty in doing so. Yes, his record suggests he prefers to run second and third more than winning so far in his career but against this group he’ll truly have no excuse. Seeking Refuge is worth including on a ticket or two as a backup. The D. O’Neill-trained colt graduated up north last month with an okay number and should enjoy a similar pace-stalking trip. A bullet half mile drill at San Luis Rey Downs (:48 2/5, fastest of 11) last week indicates he’s doing well and perhaps ready to produce another forward move.
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RACE 5: Post 3:03 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Queensbeccaandjane; 5-Blazing Charm; 7-Little Miss Ellie

Forecast: We’ll triple the fifth race, a maiden $50,000 state-bred extended sprint for fillies and mares. Blazing Charm was off slowly but then produced a solid steady run to pick up the pieces and finish second in a similar affair in March and today gets an extra furlong to work with while retaining F. Prat. She’s likely to improve off that bit of experience and may have upside that most of the others don’t. Queensbeccaandjane is progressing with racing, having her Beyer speed figure improve 17 points between her first and second outing. She was a willing but distant runner-up at this level two weeks ago and this will be her third start in a month so let’s hope she can step forward again.Little Miss Ellie, drawn comfortably outside, makes her debut for capable connections with a work tab that should have her plenty fit. How good does she really have to be? Toss her in.
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RACE 6: Post 3:34 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Desert Law

Forecast: Desert Law, a runaway winner with a career top speed figure in this race last year, makes his first start since finishing a strong runner-up in the Bing Crosby S.-G1 at Del Mar 11 months ago. The works are strong, so we expect the veteran gelding to fire a big shot off the bench, good enough to return a winner in this five-runner state-bred sprint stakes. With F. Prat aboard the D. O’Neill-trained son of Desert Code, you probably won’t even get the 6/5 that he’s listed on the morning line, so while we can use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, it’s a race that we’ll otherwise sit out.
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RACE 7: Post 4:06 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Hit the Seam; 4-Fratelli; 6-Kris’ Wild Cat

Forecast: Fratelli may have been a tad short when finishing third after pressing the pace in a similar starter/optional claimer in his comeback in March but sports a steady, healthy series of works since and should produce a forward move, assuming he transfers in dirt form to grass. However, the Munnings gelding probably will have to deal with Hit the Seam during the early stages, with ‘Seam likely to enjoy the jet stream effect of his highly-favorable inside draw with the rails set out at 20 feet. If these two go at each other from the get-go, Kris’s Wild Kat should be able to fold over into a stalk-and-pounce position. The R. Baltas-trained gelding has the route-to-sprint angle that we like, two nice, easy breezes since raced, and, oh yes, retains F. Prat. We’ll include all three in our rolling exotics and then, due to the anticipated race flow, press with extra tickets keying Kris’ Wild Cat on top.
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RACE 8: Post 4:38 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Gingham; 5-Been Studying Her

Forecast: Been Studying Her is favorably drawn outside and has the proper style for this extended sprint distance, so with F. Prat riding her back the daughter of Fast Anna is the likely choice and one to beat following a fast-closing third in the Evening Jewel S. last month. She’s 9/5 on the morning line and probably will go a bit lower. Gingham is very interesting. The B. Baffert-trained filly continues to impress in the a.m. and this, her ninth career starts, will be her first in a sprint. The daughter of Quality Road switches to the barn’s latest “go-to” rider M. Smith and projects to draft into a good stalking, ground-saving position and then have her chance from the quarter pole home. Been Studying Her probably deserves a slight edge on top but both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post 5:10 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 2-Little No Way; 4-Jen Go Unchained; 6-Dark Hedges; 7-More Honor

Forecast: The finale is a messy restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming sprint over seven furlongs. We’ll go four-deep in our rolling exotics with little-to-no conviction. Dark Hedges drops drastically in class, returns to the main track, sports the route-to-sprint angle and won the last time he appeared for this tag. He’s the controlling speed and could get very brave if not pressured early. More Honor is another dropping sharply in price and projects to fold into a good stalking spot. On pure numbers he should be right there throughout. Little No Way is the 2-1 morning line favorite probably due to the presence of F. Prat in the saddle. He has back speed figures that can win but may need turf to show his best stuff. Jen Go Unchained was a voided claim for $12,500 in late May but is back in the entries so we’ll assume he’s okay. First or second in five of 12 career starts, the R. Becerra-trained gelding should at least get a piece of it.
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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:12 AM

Saturday, June 14: Sha Tin (Hong Kong) Picks

June 11, 2020
From Hong Kong Racing Analyst Declan Schuster

SHA TIN SELECTIONS
First Post: 12:30AM ET on Sunday, June 14

Race 1: #5 Tinker Belle, #1 Chancheng Prince, #4 Sea Monarch, #3 HongKong Harmony
Race 2: #8 Impeccable Fellow, #11 Bundle Of Energy, #2 Iron King, #14 Keep Going
Race 3: #1 Fabulous Eight, #2 Dublin Star, #5 Super Kin, #6 Comfort Life
Race 4: #3 Nicconi Express, #6 Lakeshore Eagle, #1 Time To Celebrate, #5 Right Choice
Race 5: #9 Precious Sweetie, #10 Noble Desire, #12 Strathclyde, #4 Sparky Star
Race 6: #2 Gunnar, #3 Fortune Happiness, #10 Tailor Made, #8 Viva Council
Race 7: #6 Super Elegance, #1 Champion Supreme, #4 Defining Moment, #9 God Of Dragon
Race 8: #2 Gunnison, #5 Red Desert, #9 Will Power, #1 Ugly Warrior
Race 9: #7 Mighty Power, #3 Chevalier Prince, #2 Sam’s Love, #11 Destin
Race 10: #1 Sunny Boy, #2 Mega Heart, #3 Sunset Watch, #8 Good For You
Race 11: #9 California Gungho, #11 Unique Treasure, #7 President’s Choice, #2 Be Ready

Race 1: The Chairmen’s Day Plate (12:30AM ET)

#5 Tinker Belle raced close to the speed first-up on debut and from there, faded to sixth. Still, she actually kept on gamely and maybe now, down the straight, she could find the necessary improvement required to win against this small and inexperience field. #1 Chancheng Prince has placed in all three of his career runs. He’s racing well and it wouldn’t surprise to see him finally go on with things here. #4 Sea Monarch did well on debut then at his second start, appeared to struggle. Still, the small field will ensure him a chance. #3 Hongkong Harmony is next best on debut. He caught the eye at the trials and bears close watching.

Race 2: Ryrie Handicap (1:00AM ET)
#8 Impeccable Fellow raced well last start from the widest ally, and this time, now breaking from gate five, he should be able to get every opportunity close to the pace. He’s down to a competitive mark by his standards and with even luck he might be able to piece it all together for his second Hong Kong win. #11 Bundle Of Energy is still winless across 22 starts. He’s another though, who appears to have found a competitive mark and his latest effort was more than encouraging. He can challenge this bunch. #2 Iron King is another who is winless. He steps into Class 5 now for the first time and with Zac Purton taking over, he just might be ready to go on with it. #14 Keep Going has shown glimpses of ability. He most likely needs to settle close to the speed and from there, may have a chance of clinging on for some prize money.

Race 3: The Macwhinnie Cup (Handicap) (1:30AM ET)

#1 Fabulous Eight has hit his straps his last two runs and it won’t surprise to continue on an upward trajectory into Class 3. Joao Moreira retains the ride here which suits and this contest appears his for the taking. #2 Dublin Star was a solid course and distance winner last time out. He’s still on the up and this contest appears suitable, though, he will need to shoulder more weight. #5 Super Kin has mixed his form but appeared to return in good order first-up last time out when finishing third. He’s open to further improvement with that run under his belt and off that performance, bears close watching. #6 Comfort Life is next best.

Race 4: The Purves Quaich (Handicap) (2:00AM ET)

#3 Nicconi Express returns from a four month break. He’s trialled impressively leading into Sunday’s test and his best form is more than up to capturing this race, that is, if he manages to produce it at his first run back. #6 Lakeshore Eagle has gone to a new level of late as he searches for a hat-trick of wins. He’s down in the weights and if he can continue on an upward trajectory, then he’s going to be a force to be reckoned with here. #1 Time To Celebrate mixes his form but could find himself a soft enough lead here, especially with the addition of Alfred Chan’s seven pound claim. The young apprentice is fresh off a treble last Sunday and draws favourably here aboard the Per Incanto gelding. #5 Right Choice is looking to snap a run of two second-place efforts. He gets Zac Purton up which is suitable once again and in a tight contest such as this, he’s expected to be thereabouts.

Race 5: The Swaine Cup (Handicap) (2:30PM ET)

#9 Precious Sweetie is reasonably consistent and is capable of putting his last-start struggles behind him where he finished a distant eighth on the dirt. He’ll improve switching back to the grass and now, off a competitive he should be able to challenge this bunch. #10 Noble Desire is lightly raced with only seven starts to his name. He’s well weighted here and the good draw should afford him every opportunity to grab his first win. #12 Strathclyde steps onto the turf for the first time this season. He’s actually raced well on the grass previously although limited and if he manages to capture his best, then he’s an excellent chance to score his first win in nearly three years. Joao Moreira hops on #4 Sparky Star for the first time after the gelding ran poorly on debut. Suspect he’s better than that performance otherwise the Brazilian wouldn’t be jumping aboard and on that reason alone, he bears very close watching.

Race 6: The Wong Cup (Handicap) (3:00PM ET)

#2 Gunnar is drawn to get the gun run and with Jerry Chau’s ten pound claim in use, he just might be able to pinch this. Last time out he was narrowly cut down by a short-head but again, finds similar conditions here and with a positive ride, he can get every chance to go on with it. #3 Fortune Happiness is a three-time winner on the dirt already this season. If he can recapture that form then he’s a leading player. #10 Tailor Made hasn’t exactly set the world on fire in Hong Kong, but maybe now, from the inside gate with no weight on his back, he just might be able to show something. #8 Viva Council is proven over this course and distance as a winner already this term. He’ll be thereabouts, especially off his current mark.

Race 7: The Li Cup (Handicap) (3:35AM ET)

#6 Super Elegance is unlucky not to be a winner already this term having finished runner-up on four occasions. He’s had a little two month freshen up since his latest run and now, against this field with Zac Purton up, he gets an excellent chance to reward connections with a deserved win. #1 Champion Supreme sits at the top of Class 3. He’s done well this term as a two-time winner and if he’s held his condition out of his latest run, he’s going to be in the finish. #4 Defining Moment is looking for his fourth win from his last five starts. He’s racing in supreme form and there is little reason to suggest it won’t continue here, especially with Joao Moreira sticking aboard.

Race 8: The Arculli Trophy (Handicap) (4:05AM ET)

#2 Gunnison rarely runs a bad race and appears to have found himself a very suitable contest here. This is an excellent chance for him to finally score an overdue win after finishing runner-up in two out of his last four contests. #5 Red Desert steps out for owner Ronald Arculli, the namesake of this contest. His galloper won over this course and distance three starts ago and if, he manages to capture that here, he is capable of going on with it. #9 Will Power is a dirt specialist as a three-time winner on the surface. He gets in light but this is a reasonable class rise, with some talented seasoned campaigners lining up. #1 Ugly Warrior is a six-time course and distance winner. Arguably his best is behind him but a recent barrier trial success suggests that maybe, he’s capable of winding back the clock.

Race 9: The Chan Trophy (Handicap) (4:35AM ET)

#7 Mighty Power closed off well for fourth over this course and distance last month and now, with that performance under his belt, he just might be on his way breaking his maiden. He gets a handy ten pounds off thanks to Jerry Chau’s claim and he should be able to test this field. #3 Chevalier Prince is a talent on the rise having placed in both of his outings. This is a suitable contest and with Zac Purton sticking aboard, he is likely to be in the finish once again. #2 Sam’s Love is racing well and if he can overcome the awkward draw, he’s going to be in the finish. #11 Destin is favoured by the inside draw which should afford him every opportunity.

Race 10: The Stevenson Cup (Handicap) (5:10AM ET)

#1 Sunny Boy receives a welcome return to Class 3 racing here. He’s mixed his form this campaign but on his day, he is a very speedy gelding, especially on the dirt and the booking of Zac Purton now, warrants respect. #2 Mega Heart is a two-time course and distance winner, including two starts ago. He’s drawn to get the gun run and with Jerry Chau’s ten pound claim, he gets in very light for the joint second-highest rated horse. #3 Sunset Watch was well supported and narrowly missed last time out. Still, if he can reproduce that here, at his second run on the dirt this season, then he can figure. #8 Good For You is always thereabouts, especially in this grade and this appears unlikely to change against this field.

Race 11: The Ip Jug (Handicap) (5:45AM ET)

Difficult contest to close out the day with but #12 California Gungho appeals, especially if he is a reasonable price. He’s pieced together a number of good runs in this grade and if he manages to offset the wide draw, then there is little reason to suggest why he can’t find it again here, especially returning to his preferred track and distance. #11 Unique Treasure rattled into second last time out. He gets conditions to favour here, off a low mark and good gate with Joao Moreira up, which should ensure he gets every possible chance. #7 President’s Choice is only a small horse but he has plenty of guts, especially as a two-time winner already. He knows what he’s doing and there appears to still be a number of ratings points in hand with him. #2 Be Ready is next best, though is becoming a costly conveyance having placed on five occasions from nine starts.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:13 AM

Race of the Week: Ogden Phipps at Belmont Park

June 11, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
GRADE 1 OGDEN PHIPPS STAKES AT BELMONT PARK
Saturday, June 13, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
The nation's lone Grade 1 stakes this weekend matches top-class fillies and mares in the Distaff division. The 1-1/16 miles Ogden Phipps will be contested around 1 turn on the sprawling Belmont Park main track. It should serve to kick-start horseplayers' attention toward the Belmont Stakes card, now just a week away on June 20.

Field Depth:
OLLIE'S CANDY and SHE'S A JULIE are the established Grade 1 winners in the lineup. POINT OF HONOR owns a Grade 2 score and is Grade 1-placed, while PINK SANDS also has scored at that Grade 2 level. Grade 3 winners BLAMED and GOLDEN AWARD round out the talented six-pack. OLLIE'S CANDY has raced at the highest levels and may hold a slight class edge.

Pace:
Speedy BLAMED stretches out in distance and should be the candidate to set the pace. SHE'S A JULIE, OLLIE'S CANDY and GOLDEN AWARD likely vie just off the first flight. The closers are PINK SANDS and POINT OF HONOR. This pace looks fair to moderate even with a smaller field size. I wouldn't use race shape as the overriding determinant in your selection.

Our Eyes:
Favorites are 5-for-5 in graded stakes at Belmont to open the 2020 season, according to the Betmix stats, but favoritism in the Phipps does not look like an iron-clad case. OLLIE'S CANDY hasn't been favored in her last 7 starts, and only 1 of those netted a victory, but she does seem the most likely to garner the most support. She was fourth in last fall's Breeders' Cup Distaff and missed by only a head when runner-up to the talented Ce Ce in the Grade 1 Apple Blossom at Oaklawn most recently. It is notable that Ce Ce bounced after that race with a surprisingly 'off' effort in her return at Santa Anita in the Grade 2 Santa Maria. That was a really tough race on those front-end types in the Apple Blossom, and it's possible its alumnae will all pay some price.

POINT OF HONOR, who was far back in the Apple Blossom before closing for third, didn't have as taxing a trip that day at Oaklawn. Her chances to run down OLLIE'S CANDY might improve here with a return to Javier Castellano riding. POINT OF HONOR, like OLLIE'S CANDY, will be racing over the Belmont Park main track for the first time. POINT OF HONOR is by sire Curlin, whose offspring absolutely excel on Belmont's dirt surface, winning 26% from nearly 200 starters -- an almost unheard of rate. That increases to 28% at distances of 1-1/16 miles or more on this track.

PINK SANDS has not left much to the imagination in her last few starts. She dropped back to last in 1-turn affairs at Gulfstream Park and just uncoiled a couple of eye-catching rallies to win the Grade 3 Rampart and Grade 2 Inside Information. Those earned 105 and 107 BRIS late pace figures for trainer Shug McGaughey, who returned Code of Honor to a stellar, rallying win at Belmont last week in the Westchester. PINK SANDS is 0-5 at Belmont, but has finished second or third in each of those attempts.

BLAMED and GOLDEN AWARD team up as an uncoupled entry for Bill Mott. BLAMED has alternated wins and monstrous misfires in her last 5 races. She's 'due' for the regression if that holds after winning a mile Oaklawn allowance last out. She's got 9 wins in 14 starts, so she gets down to business more often than not. John Velazquez takes over the mount, which could be a great fit for a mercurial mare. GOLDEN AWARD, the half-sister to Kentucky Derby/Preakness hero I'll Have Another, did break her maiden with a local win over the track in 2018. She's 9 for 12 in the exacta lifetime and did outrun SHE'S A JULIE in the Shuvee last summer at Saratoga.

SHE'S A JULIE looks to have hit her peak with last May's Grade 1 La Troienne at Churchill. The Steve Asmussen trainee has lost 5 in a row since, increasing the margin of defeat in almost every bid. Her best races are on or near the lead, so perhaps we can forgive her lackluster showing at Oaklawn last time when she leaped in the air at the start. Still, she has not given off positive vibes in some time, including a dull autumn Spinster effort when she had absolutely everything her way on paper.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: PINK SANDS is 17-for-18 in the superfecta lifetime and hasn't missed a trifecta at Belmont. She's a pure 1-turn runner out of a dam who was best around 1 turn.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: Difficult to forecast any big prices among these 6, and you don't want to be fishing below the exacta level for exotics plays given the field size.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $50 exacta box POINT OF HONOR and PINK SANDS.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:14 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1

#1 After Prom Party	The speed hasn't been out since November and takes the big MSW plunge, meets a crew there for the taking, and should provide some value as well; come and catch the pick.
#8 Dawn's Early Light	ML favorite wins this on dirt, but we're on the green stuff and he's an unknown, so while he still likely hits hard, taking a short price isn't that appealing; trying to beat on top.
#10 Our Troubadour	Logical sort got back on the beam on the dirt last time but has a pair of sharp turf MSW races to fall back on, though he may need a pace meltdown to get there; stretch danger.
Race Summary	You can't possibly get that 10-1 ML on the 1, but even half that seems fair, as there's a lot to like, most notably his speed and class, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since this is a deep field, and getting home a $12 winner or so at the start will knock a lot of tickets out right off the bat.

Belmont Park - Race #4

#6 Gatto Marrone	Intriguing newcomer routed against open foes on debut at GP, now cuts back and runs against NYBs, and Breen is a stiff 26% with second-out maidens; upset special.
#1 Disciplanarian	The horse to beat has the best two turf races showing and kept ticking the dirt over the winter, though working out a trip from the rail can be a bit tricky; second-best.
#4 Fluent in Sarcasm	Tricky read has a turf race against open maidens at Dmr that wins this, but since he's change barns and had a rough go, so what you get here is a question; tread lightly.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 6, and it doesn't to take much imagination to think this was the spot Breen had in mind all along, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's likely getting ignored, even though he could wake way up here, and a win would go a long way in blowing both sequences up.

Belmont Park - Race #6

#4 Celebration	Speedster catches a field without a lot of early lick, has Carmouche, the best send rider in the business, owns some sharp form, and will not be favored; lots to like from the pick.
#8 Kitten's Cat	The chalk will be bet hard for Maker and Jose Ortiz, and his turf form is best here, but with the pick on the lead, this one could be left with too much to do; runs out of ground late.
#6 Honey Won't	Improving sort was in against better going two turns at GP, so this cutback is a bit of a worry, but the price will be fair, and he's plenty tactical as well; exotics appeal, maybe more.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's no one here running with the 4 early, especially with an ultra-aggressive Carmouche up, so play him in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since this 9-2 ML would be a lot of value on a runner with plenty of form, and an expected race flow advantage to go with it.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:14 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Santa Anita - Race #6

#1 Desert Law	Won't be any kind of price here, but he looks like a really logical single in the late multi-race plays. He's pretty reliable, and his best game is too good for these.
#5 Principe Carlo	Draws well to prompt the pace from the outside, but he's likely to settle for second with his best.
#2 Tiger Dad	He owns a couple of races that could potentially put a little scare into the top choice, and he's got the speed to be in the mix right from the start.
Race Summary	Desert Law won't offer anything playable within the race, but he appears to be a pretty solid single in the P6/P5/P4 late in the cards.

Santa Anita - Race #7

#1 Hit the Seam	Might offer a fair price in this spot, and he owns some running lines that are very competitive with what he's going to meet here. The rail draw is a little worry, but at something like the 7/2 ML offering, he's the play.
#6 Kris' Wild Kat	Has some mild rating ability that should serve him well from the outside draw, but I wouldn't want this guy as too heavy a favorite in a race where there are other logical win candidates.
#2 Handsome Cat	Took a couple of steps forward since getting back on the main track here, and if he's able to hold the form that allowed him to win pretty impressively in his maiden breaker, he's in the mix at a price.
Race Summary	Hit the Seam has the speed to get into the race early from the fence, and if he runs back to anything like his last try over the turf here on Jan. 26, he can handle this group.

Santa Anita - Race #9

#6 Dark Hedges	Gets top call on the front end of the Golden Hour Double in a spot where he shouldn't meet too much other serious pace. He has been in with better and won the last time he tried this price.
#2 Little No Way	He'll be chasing in the early stages and can win this, but he'd feel like an underlay if he's bet to something like the 2/1 ML price.
#7 More Honor	Not sure he's going to get the right kind of setup for his sort of one-paced, grinding style where he needs the race to come back to him, but he's dropping in class and can't be counted out.
Race Summary	Dark Hedges should be able to find the front with this bunch, and a couple of his best career races have come over the SA main track.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:15 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Northfield Park - Race #1

#9 ROCKINATTHERYMAN	Overcame impost to bury lesser, as good as any in here.
#1 DIANAMIGHT	Broke stride in return, went well in qualifier, in money in 12 of 17.
#5 VALENDOUGHA	Blew two stretch leads, then rallied into soft pace before layoff.
Race Summary	Rockinattheryman ended a 1-for-43 drought with an easy victory from the same, second-tier starting spot. Hoping she can duplicate that effort and repeat. Play 9-1 and 9-5 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#6 POINTOMYGRANSON	Cooked in fast pace, live longshot against similar rivals.
#8 NIRVANA SEELSTER	Millionaire led closers parade and finished second against top one.
#1 WESTY’S LUCKY TERROR	Won 10 times last year, gets class relief, looms forward factor.
Race Summary	Pointomygranson led through a torrid 1:22.3 third -quarter split before the deep closers passed by. The top four finishers in the race were 5th, 6th, 7th and 10th after a half mile. He can slow it down in this spot and turn the tables.

Meadowlands - Race #4

#3 MONEYMAN HILL	Solid freshman season, returns for high-percentage connections.
#5 BUY IN	Rallied first-over off 2-month freshening when last seen in the fall.
#4 PATRIOT NATION	Well-traveled 3-year-old gets Lasix off qualifying romp.
Race Summary	Moneyman Hill ran in fast sire stakes races as a 2-year-old, has plenty of experience on a one-mile oval and had a good tune-up for his seasonal debut. Play 3-4 and 3-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 07:15 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#6 Man of Honor	Ran an even 3rd in his 1st over this strip; that was an extremely fast race and he can improve in his return. Long overdue to graduate from the maiden ranks.
#1 Sir Kahn	Has been in some very fast maiden races and couldn't help but weaken a little at the end of his last one; will save ground and could benefit from having Vasquez back up.
#8 Flatter Me	Lost a photo two back and makes his 1st since December at Aqueduct; has faced good company and fits here.
Race Summary	Man of Honor is well-bred, ran 3rd last time and is the most eligible one to improve in this spot; was in a fast race last time and should have a smooth go of it.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#4 Dance d'Oro	Romped in her 2nd lifetime start and should be able to be close to the lead; royally bred filly can close ground and get the prize here.
#1 Solitary Gem	Was a clear winner in three straight and is very tough at the mile distance; was claimed two back by Walder and won in her 1st one back.
#3 Violent Trick	Was claimed three back and has weakened after solid fractions in both follow-up races; can get to the lead and will be dangerous if she can slow down the pace.
Race Summary	Dance d'Oro's debut was a bad one as she never got involved and finished ninth, but her follow-up was very sharp and she made short work of them late in the game. Nicks trainee capable of winning right back.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#4 Diamond Oops	Was 4th in the Pegasus World Cup and was a winner in the G3 Mr Prospector here; very classy and capable of winning this mile handicap.
#9 Math Wizard	Trying to get back to the form that saw him win the G1 Pa. Derby; never got involved in the G3 Razorback in his 1st of the year and likely will show a great deal of improvement.
#2 Eye of a Jedi	Is a stakes winner over this strip and has a decent late move; could be the one to post the upset if the top two falter.
Race Summary	Diamond Oops has run some outstanding races over the GP track and can be in good position throughout; can get 1st run and looks like the one to catch late.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 08:54 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delta Downs

Delta Downs - Race 17	Daily Double(Races 17-18)($1 min) / Exacta / Trifecta(.50 min) Superfecta(.10 min)
Trial • 330 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 80 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 9:15P
QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS, ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2018, WHICH HAVE NOMINATED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE TO THE LADDIE FUTURITY. $425 DUE AT TIME OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. LATE PAYMENT: $6,000.00 TO ENTER THE TRIALS PRIOR TO TIME OF ENTRIES CLOSING. WEIGHTS: 122 LBS. (ALL FINAL PAYMENTS AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATIONS MUST BE ON ACCOUNT WITH THE HORSEMEN'S BOOKKEEPER PRIOR TO 10:30 A.M. THE DAY OF ENTRY TO TRIALS. CASH OR CASHIER CHECK ONLY !).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation and no horse in a post position next to it gets out of the gate fast. Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibas e Speed Rating. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. NASTYGRAM: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase S peed Figure at the distance/surface.
5	FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN	7/2	9/5
6	NASTYGRAM	4/1	7/2

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CARTERS FIRST FLIGHT	3	8/1	Fast	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
5	FREIGHTTRAIN AUSTIN	5	7/2	Fast	82	67	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	NASTYGRAM	6	4/1	Average	82	58	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	CHANGING THE GAME	7	20/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
10	JJ IDEA DASH	10	8/1	Slow	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: KP GRAND (12/1) [Jockey: Castaneda Noe - Trainer: Roberts Sr Kenneth L], CHIEF KNOCKAHOMA (15/1) [Jockey: Herbert Jose R - Trainer: Sanchez III Jose Luis], JES LEAVING THE BAR (8/1) [Jockey: Alvarez David A - Trainer: Huitron F

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 08:55 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 3	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager) $1 Pick Three
Claiming $5,000 • 4 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 90 • Purse: $11,000 • Post: 6:58P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE APRIL 13 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (MAIDEN RACES AND RACES FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. STORMIN TRICK is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MO DINERO: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. STORMIN TRICK: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. HOT N'FAMOUS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. WALK ON WATER: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. KENNY BENNY: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
3	MO DINERO	9/2	6/1
4	STORMIN TRICK	5/2	6/1
5	HOT N'FAMOUS	8/1	7/1
2	WALK ON WATER	7/2	8/1
1	KENNY BENNY	2/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	STORMIN TRICK	4	5/2	Front-runner	85	74	77.9	73.1	63.6
2	WALK ON WATER	2	7/2	Stalker	85	79	67.5	73.2	67.7
6	JOHANN'S COMMAND	6	8/1	Stalker	83	72	59.4	67.6	55.6
1	KENNY BENNY	1	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	73	78.8	83.6	79.1
5	HOT N'FAMOUS	5	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	87	87	68.0	80.4	74.4
3	MO DINERO	3	9/2	Alternator/Stalker	89	87	64.2	84.4	80.4

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belmont Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 8 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $56000 Class Rating: 81

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $13,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING OR STARTER ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 QUALITY STONES 8/1
# 1 MEDELLIN 20/1
# 2 HAPPY SOPHIA 12/1

My selection in this event is QUALITY STONES especially at a long price. She looks competitive in this slot and I expect will be on the lead or close at the halfway point. Has been running solidly and has among the strongest speed in the race for today's distance. Change in Lasix (with second time Lasix) may be the difference to a return. MEDELLIN - Ought to go to the lead and may never look back. Win percentage one of the top in this group. HAPPY SOPHIA - The speed rating of 78 from her latest race looks formidable in here.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-13-2020, 08:56 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #4 - Post: 7:11pm - Maiden Special - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $22,000 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 DRILLING REPORT (ML=5/2)

DRILLING REPORT - Don't look any further. This pony has my dough. Way too much early speed. That 73 fig this gelding garnered in his last event tells me he's a chief player this time around. Getting a weight break of 5 pounds from last race at Fair Grounds on March 1st. Should be helpful in this event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 REPOSADO (ML=9/5), #5 MISCHIEF'S MACHINE (ML=3/1), #2 DUCHESS OF ARABI (ML=9/2),

REPOSADO - Would have to get quite a bit more than the morning line odds of 9/5 to play this horse. MISCHIEF'S MACHINE - 3/1 odds isn't enough for this one when looking at the most recent efforts. Should be difficult for this thoroughbred to beat this bunch off of that last speed rating. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's class rating, so put him on the vulnerable contenders list. DUCHESS OF ARABI - This filly most likely won't be very close at the finish line.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - DRILLING REPORT - Earnings per start is one measure of class I like to check out. This thoroughbred is number one in the field and has a good shot to beat this crew.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 DRILLING REPORT is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	6 with [3,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip