Service Plays Tuesday 6/16/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 06:55 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 5 Analysis

June 16, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
The 0.20 Pick 5 begins in Race 1 at Woodbine Mohawk Park and it has a $75,000 guaranteed pool. The competitive sequence also has a low 15% takeout and will be my focus.

On Monday, Trevor Henry led the pilots with three pictures and all ten races were won by different trainers.

Comments and selections are based on a fast track.

Race 1

1-Stravinsky (3-1)-Broke maiden with a romp in last week's debut. This may not be as easy but deserves respect in a race without much form.
3-Sebastian Ray (5-1)-Even effort in 1st start off the bench and it was the 1st try for new barn. Moves in a few spots and should be in contention throughout.
7-Delilah Seelster (8-1)-Makes 1st start for a barn that can fire hot off a claim and should be a nice price.

Race 2

1-Outlaw Gunpowder (3-1)-Comes off a trip-out win and that can be the case again. Faces five from last week and result could be the same.
3-Fern Hill Breeze (5/2)-Nice effort to finish 2nd to #1. This time leaves from the 3-hole instead of post 7 and that should make things interesting.

Race 3

4-No Time To Play (9/2)-Was handled carefully in 1st lifetime start. Breaking problems have been an issue but went the long way around and kept trotting to the wire in debut. Filion could be more aggressive, so best to respect.
7-Powerful Spirit (3-1)-Trotted the last half in 57.2 in 1st lifetime start and should be tighter tonight. A threat with a flat mile.
8-Windsong Patriot (7/2)-No chance from the 2nd tier last week, stayed inside and picked up a check. Lightly raced 4-year-old should like the company but needs to mind manners.
9-Victor Invictus (4-1)-McClure takes a seat and maybe he can make a difference. Hasn't been able to seal the deal but could find some live cover and roll by down the lane.

Race 4

1-Mach Me Onemore (5-1)-Nice effort in 1st lifetime start from the 8-hole at Georgian Downs. McClure steers and he has options, there isn't much gate speed in this race.
2-Admityourewrong (8-1)-This gal likes to start slowly and rally to finish 2nd. Big Jim filly does try hard and JMac might be the guy to squeeze a little more out of her.
4-Classica (2-1)-Fell short form the 1-hole but could enjoy this post more and now McNair is back in the bike. Program chalk might be set to take 1st picture.

Race 5

2-Vines To Heaven (5-1)-Won in 1st start off the bench on 2/1 for these connections. Winner of 7 of 37 at Wbsb and will be banking she is ready to roll. Henry has been hot, and he needs to work the right trip.
3-Takeyourbreathaway (12-1)-Will take a swing for a price, drops to a more comfortable level, and gets post relief. If Hudon can put into striking range this mare can pass foes down the lane.

0.20 Early Pick 5

1,3,7/1,3/4,7,8,9/1,2,4/2,3
Total Bet=$28.80

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4

#4 First to the Wire	Stretch runner has run well in a trio of starts this year without winning but now drops, fits nicely with these on paper, and should offer a hint of value as well; finally his time.
#3 Savage Warrior	ML favorite comfortably handled N2L foes at TuP and looks like he owns a tactical edge on most here, but this is a much tougher group, and he'll be overbet as well; second-best.
#7 Aloo Ghost	Broberg charge was beaten by the pick two-back then regressed last time, so while his potent trainer says you need to take notice, he's tough to like on top; underneath only.
Race Summary	You're going to get fair value on the pick, and the Will Rogers 3rd last time-against better-was a sharp effort, so play him in the all the slots, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, since he could get overlooked in lieu of sexier connections, even though he's got every right to mow this group down.

Canterbury Park - Race #5

#3 Arnold's Patsy	Tampa invader drops after running against 25k open company N2L's last time, and that was off a September layoff too, so she's primed now, and the last time she was here against Mn breds, she broke her maiden for fun; spotted to score.
#1 Oaklie Gal	Lightly raced and improving miss is another who was facing open company, albeit at Fonner, a much lesser circuit, but those were better races this year, and her closing 4th last time puts her in the mix here, at a fair price too; do not ignore.
#2 Mrs. D's Concerto	Class dropping speedster would beat this group by about 9 on her day, but she hasn't been seen since a no-show in August, and is now in for 15k, for an 18% Donlin barn that is 0-for-8 off this extended break; tread very lightly here.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML on the pick would be a dream, as she got the perfect prep last time, showed she likes the track in September, and you just know this is the spot they had in mind all along, so play her aggressively to win and place at 5-2 or better, while getting some added value by singling her in the 10% takeout Pk5, since this seems to have the all systems go angle to it.

Canterbury Park - Race #7

#3 Attain Success	Stretch runner was in too tough at OP off the Diodoro claim but meets a crew here that should be more to his liking, especially since it's loaded with speed; mows them down in the lane.
#4 Mines Made Up	Stalker was a good 3rd in an AOC at TuP, in a race that saw the winner come right back to score, and he's another like the pick who will like the race flow, and will get first run too; using.
#8 Louie's Kingdom	CD invader aired in the slop and did well to draw outside the other speed, but his fast track form isn't as sharp, and he's going to be pressing/dueling the entire way; comes unglued late.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here to aid the 3, who probably was facing better at OP even though he was in a 30k claimer, so play him in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since he should offer plenty of value, and a win in the 4-1 range or so (it's tough to think he'll be anywhere close to this 8-1 ML) might play a lot longer in the sequence than the toteboard might indicate.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 06:56 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#3 Greatest Game	Turf is still the big question with just two lackluster grass tries to his credit in his career, but all of the two-turn efforts on the page look competitive with these, and the price should be right.
#1 Starling's Law	Tactical type is another who will have to fire off the layoff, but he has the pace to get into the mix from the start and get the jump on the deeper finishing players.
#6 Loyalty Spirit	Reliable runner drops off the bench for this one, and he's got some versatility that will allow his rider to adapt to whatever happens out of the gate.
Race Summary	Greatest Game might get a bit overlooked with these, and I'll give him a chance on the move to the lawn, as his performances going long near the end of his 2019 campaign were sharp.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#9 Ripinandatearin	This guy loves the local footing and was competitive with better company in his 2019 campaign. The start of his 2019 season suggests he might need a race, but the price should be right today.
#6 Heart in Hand	No doubt the one to beat on paper, he showed nothing on the main at Will Rogers Downs in that last one and should appreciate the move back to the grass. Underlay?
#8 King of New York	Owns a couple of back grass races that might make him interesting with this bunch, and he's probably going to offer a big number for the new connections off the break.
Race Summary	Ripinandatearin tailed off at the end of his season last year, but he has done good work over the local turf course and is worth a look at something like the 6/1 ML price as he kicks off his 10yo season.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#8 Flirty	She has never won on the lawn, but her synthetic form suggests she's worth a small look over a turf course she has never tried before. Look for her late.
#10 Estrela Cadente	Rattled off two nice ones near the end of 2019, and if she's able to bring that sort of effort off the bench, she can play with this bunch. Might be a big better on the dirt, but her turf form compares.
#3 Pride of Wilko	Yes, she probably wins this at a short price, but she's coming off the layoff into her 8yo season, so tonight is as good a night as any to make her prove she still has it.
Race Summary	Flirty can bounce back here while getting on the turf, and outside of Pride of Wilko, she isn't meeting a field with a ton of depth. The 9/2 ML price seems about right.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 06:57 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Hoosier Park - Race #2

#1 QUEENS LUCKY CHIP	Duplicate of comeback should be enough, key in all exotics.
#6 LIVIN’ONLOVE	Showed speed in second qualifier for solid connections.
#5 ROCKIN EMERSON	Took money in lone pari-mutuel start, has shown little else.
Race Summary	Queens Lucky Chip improved at Hawthorne after four months away but paced evenly through a :56 back half mile. She draws inside and has little to beat in here. Play 1-5 and 1-6 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#1 STRAVINSKY	Ultra impressive in first-out win, today’s Best Bet to repeat.
#3 SEBASTIAN RAY	Held third in fast heat behind deep closers after the favorite broke stride.
#8 ANGRY EYES	Earned competitive speed figs in fall sire stakes, makes return.
Race Summary	Don’t expect 3-1 on Stravinsky off of a smashing debut, but expect a return to the winners’ circle with favorable rail draw. He tracked his 2-1 stablemate, took over in early stretch and widened on the gallop out. Play 1-3 and 1-8 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #10

#10 GO NINE O	Early move to lead, faded mid-stretch, meets similar foes.
#1 BUDDHA BLUE CHIP	Well-timed bid to run past top one, won going away.
#5 CROCADILE CANYON	Lacked usual late kick as beaten fave, seeks 40th win.
Race Summary	Go Nine O can turn the tables on several rivals who rallied past him in the stretch last week. He pulled from the pocket on the backside, brushed to the lead and held well until mid-stretch. Post 10 is a concern but the price is right.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 06:57 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#11 Rob the Rich	Was claimed by Matthews barn in his 1st start, was shuffled back, circled, improved position to 3rd at the end; steps up to maiden special but likely will be in the mix earlier. Chance for an upset.
#4 Cash Now	Trained well at Keeneland and has a couple of moderate local drills for Cox; opted for this spot instead of Kentucky.
#3 Ring of Fire	Showed speed in both starts, the latest going longer; likely to improve in his 3rd career effort.
Race Summary	Rob the Rich lost his best chance when off poorly in his only start and has a good chance to improve in his return; Matthews thought enough of him to claim him 1st out.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#4 Dawn's Dancer	Broke her maiden on turf at Fair Grounds and she was unsuccessful in her last two on dirt; can be in the mix throughout as she returns to grass.
#7 Pranked	Was a pacesetter in all three turf starts, winning her 1st at Fair Grounds; tried strong company in her last two and can be a factor.
#8 Spun Eazy	Hasn't showed speed on turf but likely will benefit from followed this pace and can be a threat to get into the exotics.
Race Summary	Dawn's Dancer didn't do well on turf but should appreciate this return to grass; her turf win at Fair Grounds was impressive and can get the distance vs. these.

Indiana Grand - Race #8

#9 One Eyed Johnny	Didn't break well but came rolling in his debut; has a good work for his credit and can get going sooner vs. these.
#2 Blueskiessmilnatme	Likely favorite has worked for the past month and lands in a good spot for her debut.
#12 Chuy	Has had 18 chances to break the maiden but on several occasions has shown run vs. state-breds; capable of an on-the-board finish here.
Race Summary	One Eyed Johnny took a while to get going on debut but was picking off foes in the stretch; a better start can make him a strong player.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:29 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park

Belterra Park - Race 1	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Allowance • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $24,100 • Post: 12:35
FOR REGISTERED OHIO BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 16, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR$20,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. DENNY M is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * DENNY M: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's win percentage at today 's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. CALBOYZEKE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DA DUDE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating.
1A	DENNY M	8/5	7/2
4	CALBOYZEKE	3/1	5/1
1	DA DUDE	8/5	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1A	DENNY M	6	8/5	Front-runner	71	75	64.2	57.7	52.2
1	DA DUDE	4	8/5	Stalker	70	71	61.7	67.5	64.0
4	CALBOYZEKE	3	3/1	Stalker	76	65	51.0	70.4	65.9
3	ROLLIN MY OWN	2	5/2	Stalker	58	64	50.6	60.0	50.0
2	DANCING WILLARD	1	4/1	Stalker	57	62	19.0	58.8	51.3
5	HEIDI'S SINATRA	5	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	68	61	3.0	49.0	39.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:30 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Louisiana Downs

Louisiana Downs - Race 7	Exacta / .50 Trifecta / .10 Superfecta / .50 Super High Five
Claiming $12,500 • 1 Mile • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $8,500 • Post: 5:49P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT 1 MILE AND 70 YARDS).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Front-runner. MY LITTLE ROSY is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MY LITTLE ROSY: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e. BADGERI CANDY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BIG RED ROSE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run we ll in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	MY LITTLE ROSY	6/1	3/1
1	BADGERI CANDY	5/2	4/1
4	BIG RED ROSE	4/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	MY LITTLE ROSY	2	6/1	Front-runner	87	80	73.4	70.2	63.7
1	BADGERI CANDY	1	5/2	Stalker	77	75	64.4	71.6	68.6
4	BIG RED ROSE	4	4/1	Trailer	75	72	65.9	70.8	65.3
5	NO TIME TO PLAY	5	5/1	Alternator/Non-contender	66	65	65.3	60.1	53.1
6	DADDY'S ANGEL	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	49	48	52.1	50.2	39.7
7	WASNT JOKING	7	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	58	51	49.8	47.4	36.4
3	SHE'S A FINE DIME	3	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	60	60	38.9	54.0	42.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:30 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 7.5f on the Turf. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 87

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR MINNESOTA BRED WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000. MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. (IF MANAGEMENT DEEMS IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF, TWO-YEAR-OLD RACES WILL BE RUN

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 WHERE'S JORDAN 4/1
# 4 TERYN IT UP 6/1
# 2 WAR VETERAN 5/2

WHERE'S JORDAN looks very good to best this field. Has recorded sound speed figures in turf sprint races in the past. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 91 - of his last affair. A solid 100 avg Equibase class figure may give this gelding a distinct class edge against this group. TERYN IT UP - Strong average Equibase Speed Figures in turf sprint races make this horse a key contender. Is a solid contender - given the 78 speed fig from his most recent race. WAR VETERAN - Put up a quite good Equibase Speed Figure last time out.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Royal Ascot - Race #2 - Post: 8:50am - Stakes - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $332,500 Class Rating: 108 Queen Anne S. (Grade 1)

Rating:

#9 MUSTASHRY (GB) (ML=10/1)
#10 PLUMATIC (GB) (ML=20/1)
#13 SPACE TRAVELLER (GB) (ML=15/1)
#4 DUKE OF HAZZARD (FR) (ML=8/1)
#16 TEREBELLUM (IRE) (ML=8/1)

MUSTASHRY (GB) - This animal has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Oneill, and this one could bound home the winner. This thoroughbred has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed figure at the distance/surface. Stoute enters this horse in a spot where he should fit well based on his last 2 speed figs. Based on the TrackMaster data I've reviewed, this gelding should run well off the layoff. This horse tops my list of strong contenders. Three solid efforts leading into this event can prove I'm right. PLUMATIC (GB) - A little change in scenery has got to do this one well. Reading the PP lines, it seems like he likes to visit the winner's circle at multiple tracks. I do like foreign invaders that have run well at a major foreign track. SPACE TRAVELLER (GB) - Fahey enters this horse in a spot where he should fit well based on his last 2 Equibase speed figures. Jockey jumped on this colt's back for the initial time on Nov 2nd. Should be in tune with the animal even better in today's race. Even though he isn't from around here, when a steed has finished in the money at a major foreign track he will usually give a good account of himself soon after shipping. This colt's recent speed figures have been as consistent as they get. No reason today will be any different, so I expect to see this horse in the winner's circle photo. DUKE OF HAZZARD (FR) - Although this colt has limited experience around here, he has showed his class by running well at a major foreign racing venue. Cole moves this horse here to Royal Ascot from GOO. Looking at the horse's past performances, he has shown the ability to win on different tracks. Recent Equibase speed figs show dominant pattern of improvement. TEREBELLUM (IRE) - I like a thoroughbred that manages to finish in the money as often as this filly. Almost always in the money so don't leave her out of your exotic bets. This filly is in first-rate form right now. Ended up first last time out and comes back promptly. Changes tracks from last out at NEW to here. Multiple wins at multiple tracks tell me this animal likes to switch it up, so that's a good sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CIRCUS MAXIMUS (IRE) (ML=5/2), #6 FOX CHAIRMAN (IRE) (ML=7/1),

CIRCUS MAXIMUS (IRE) - If he goes off near the M/L odds of 5/2, I'll have to pass. FOX CHAIRMAN (IRE) - The long vacation will probably bring problems for this pony. Recorded a quite unimpressive rating last race out in the Bet365 Steventon on Jul 20th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that fig.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - MUSTASHRY (GB) - With success at a major track abroad, this foreign gelding looks to strut his stuff here today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #9 MUSTASHRY (GB) to win if we can get at least 7/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [9,10,13]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:31 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Assiniboia Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $8100 Class Rating: 65

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 LITTLE BITTY CHER 8/1
# 5 FAIRY BARB 2/1
# 6 GRAYROSS GRACIE 15/1

LITTLE BITTY CHER has a decent shot to take this contest especially at 8/1. Could provide positive returns based on strong recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 66. This choice will feel the med change - on Lasix today. Overall, this handler has been money-making at this distance/surface. FAIRY BARB - Should be carefully examined in this race if only for the very strong speed figure put up in the last competition. Has to be considered versus this group of animals displaying competitive figs lately and an average speed figure of 50 under similar conditions. GRAYROSS GRACIE - Bettors should note that this equine runs on Lasix today. Conditioner has strong win rate (24 percent) at this distance and surface.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 11:31 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #8 - Post: 4:20pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 49

Rating:

#4 PLUS SIZE VALUE (ML=3/1)

PLUS SIZE VALUE - Puhl brings this filly back into a race rather than a workout. He knows his filly is on top of her game. Racing at a similar level as last race on June 11th at Thistledown. I think Puhl has found a good spot for her, and I like her chances in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 SISTER DIABLO (ML=5/2), #3 AUNT PEG (ML=7/2), #5 TURKICANUS FREAK (ML=9/2),

SISTER DIABLO - No picnic to support any questionable contender in a sprint race if she hasn't finished in the money in a sprint in the last couple months. AUNT PEG - This filly finished out of the money on January 22nd and wasn't even close in the last race either. TURKICANUS FREAK - Finished third in her most recent race with a most unsatisfactory speed rating. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to win after that in this bunch.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #4 PLUS SIZE VALUE on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-16-2020, 02:55 PM

Paul Leiner!

Louisiana Downs Picks 6/16

Tue Jun 16, 2020 8:33 am
Hit a $30 exacta in the 4th at Tampa Bay yesterday. Here's three races from Louisiana Downs. Goodluck.

Race 1
#4 Susan Jones $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-2-6

Race 6
#2 Blessed Again $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 2-1-4

Race 7
#4 Big Red Rose $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 4-5-1