Service Plays Thursday 6/25/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:01 AM

Jeff Siegel's National Day Makers - 6/25/20

June 25, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR THURSDAY, JUNE 25, 2020
*

Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
*

BELMONT PARK – 8TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:04 ET
6 – Toy (8-1)

Let’s take a flier with a price horse in this year’s edition of the Easy Goer Stakes. This M. Trombetta-trained gelding shows rising speed figures in his last four starts and earned a career top number when victorious despite a dreadful trip in a recent first-level allowance main track miler at Laurel Park. Blocked repeatedly and forced to steady and alter course sharply at the head of the lane, the sophomore gelding regained his momentum and then drew clear quickly while appearing capable of handling a raise in class. This is a considerably tougher spot, but drawn comfortably outside and therefore guaranteed an in-the-clear trip, the son of Tapizar might be up to the task, so at 8-1 on the morning line he’s worth a bit of gamble.

*

BELMONT PARK – 9TH RACE. POST TIME 5:36 ET
3 – Magnolia’s Lady (6-1)

Appeared to be in for the experience when finding her best stride too late without being knocked about in her debut in a similar maiden state-bred grass affair earlier this month. Closed from 10th to fourth while doing her best work late and today gets an extra furlong to work with for a barn that has terrific stats with second-time starters. The daughter of Freud retains J. Lezcano, shows a recent easy breeze to tick her over and should be primed for significant forward move in what appears to be a fairly wide open affair. At 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth a play in the straight pool and in the various rolling exotics.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:02 AM

Mike McClure

GOLF

predicted Gary Woodland's first career major championship at the U.S. Open even though he wasn't the favorite entering the weekend. The result: Woodland held off a late charge from Brooks Koepka and won by three strokes. The model also called Koepka's historic victory at the 2019 PGA Championship, predicting he'd hold his lead in the home stretch. In all, the advanced computer model has nailed a whopping six majors entering the weekend.

And already this season, the model called Justin Thomas (15-2) winning the CJ Cup, Rory McIlroy (11-2) taking down the WGC-HSBC Champions and Viktor Hovland (11-1) earning his first career PGA Tour victory at the Puerto Rico Open. Using the model for his best bets, McClure returned a whopping +788 during the 2020 Charles Schwab Challenge, including nailing top-five bets on Xander Schauffele at 13-2 and Collin Morikawa at 9-1.

The model was also extremely high on 30-1 long shot winner Webb Simpson at the RBC Heritage. The model had him in the top five from the start and McClure's best bets included Simpson winning outright. Those who followed that advice saw a whopping +3000 return! Anyone who has followed it has seen some MASSIVE returns.

The 2020 Travelers Championship projected leaderboard, according to SportsLine's model (posted 6/22/20). Odds courtesy William Hill:

Make sure you're following Mike on Twitter @Mike5754 for last minute updates and questions. Click here for more golf picks and analysis.

Bets I've placed as of 10:05 AM EST 6/22:

Justin Thomas +1400
Patrick Cantlay +2500
Xander Schauffele +2800
Sungjae Im +3500
Collin Morikawa +3500

Top 5 Finish - 10:30 AM EST 6/23

Patrick Cantlay +550
Sungjae Im +750

Top 10 Finish

Corey Conners +700

Top 20 Finish

Corey Conners +333
Vaughn Taylor +600
Aaron Wise +1100

H2H Matchups

Gary Woodland +100 vs. Jordan Spieth
Paul Casey -110 vs. Joaquin Niemann
Sungjae Im -110 vs. Abraham Ancer
Scottie Scheffler -110 vs. Ian Poulter
Collin Morikawa -110 vs. Patrick Reed
Xander Schauffele -125 vs. Bubba Watson

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Justin Thomas (14-1)
2. Rory McIlroy (12-1)
3. Patrick Cantlay (25-1)
4. Bryson Dechambeau (14-1)
5. Xander Schauffele (28-1)
6. Jon Rahm (20-1)
7. Webb Simpson (20-1)
8. Sungjae Im (35-1)
9. Collin Morikawa (35-1)
10. Paul Casey (33-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Abraham Ancer
12 Brooks Koepka
13 Dustin Johnson
14 Matthew Fitzpatrick
15 Viktor Hovland
16 Patrick Reed
17 Justin Rose
18 Marc Leishman
19 Corey Conners
20 Gary Woodland
21 Tony Finau
22 Sergio Garcia
23 Bubba Watson
24 Billy Horschel
25 Scottie Scheffler
26 Ryan Moore
27 Joaquin Niemann
28 Brian Harman
29 Joel Dahmen
30 Louis Oosthuizen
31 Jason Kokrak
32 Shane Lowry
33 Kevin Kisner
34 J.T. Poston
35 Jason Day
36 Jim Furyk
37 Chez Reavie
38 Kevin Na
39 Vaughn Taylor
40 Ian Poulter
41 Brandt Snedeker
42 Byeong Hun An
43 Lucas Glover
44 Harold Varner III
45 Bud Cauley
46 Sebastian Munoz
47 Jordan Spieth
48 Max Homa
49 Rafa Cabrera Bello
50 Keegan Bradley
51 Kevin Streelman
52 Jhonattan Vegas
53 Brendon Todd
54 Emiliano Grillo
55 Ryan Palmer
56 Russell Knox
57 Matt Jones
58 Kyle Stanley
59 Aaron Wise
60 Tom Hoge
61 Harry Higgs
62 Danny Lee
63 Matthew NeSmith
64 Cameron Champ
65 Steve Stricker
66 Cameron Smith
67 Brice Garnett
68 Danny Willett
69 Russell Henley
70 Adam Long
71 Patrick Rodgers
72 Doc Redman
73 Mark Hubbard
74 Cameron Tringale
75 Zach Johnson
76 Matthew Wolff
77 Dylan Frittelli
78 Carlos Ortiz
79 Brendan Steele
80 Adam Schenk
81 Bronson Burgoon
82 Brian Stuard
83 Charley Hoffman
84 Talor Gooch
85 Aaron Baddeley
86 Branden Grace
87 Keith Mitchell
88 Michael Thompson
89 Lanto Griffin
90 Tyler Duncan
91 Luke List
92 Cameron Davis
93 Joseph Bramlett
94 Denny McCarthy
95 Sung Kang
96 C.T. Pan
97 Graeme McDowell
98 Sepp Straka
99 Nate Lashley
100 Matt Wallace
101 Kyoung-Hoon Lee
102 Sam Ryder
103 Henrik Norlander
104 Sam Burns
105 Phil Mickelson
106 Ryan Armour
107 Wyndham Clark
108 Kevin Chappell
109 James Hahn
110 Troy Merritt
111 Xinjun Zhang
112 Zac Blair
113 Stewart Cink
114 Cameron Percy
115 Scott Stallings
116 Kevin Tway
117 Grayson Murray
118 Scott Brown
119 Bo Hoag
120 Si Woo Kim
121 Beau Hossler
122 Hudson Swafford
123 Austin Cook
124 Richy Werenski
125 Charl Schwartzel
126 Mackenzie Hughes
127 Sahith Theegala
128 Brian Gay
129 J.J. Spaun
130 Peter Malnati
131 Robby Shelton
132 Chris Stroud
133 Seung-Yul Noh
134 Jamie Lovemark
135 Luke Donald
136 Scott Harrington
137 Roger Sloan
138 Will Gordon
139 Hank Lebioda
140 Ted Potter Jr.
141 Patton Kizzire
142 Vijay Singh
143 Lucas Bjerregaard
144 Matt Every
145 Hunter Mahan
146 J.J. Henry
147 Greg Chalmers
148 Wesley Bryan
149 Davis Love III
150 Bo Van Pelt
151 Peter Kuest
152 Michael Kim
153 Martin Trainer

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:02 AM

Rick Gehman

GOLF

Gehman told SportsLine readers to bet Webb Simpson at 30-1 to win the RBC Heritage, saying he "certainly appreciates the books dropping Simpson all the way down to 30-1" following a bad performance the week before and noting Harbour Town was a perfect course for Simpson's game.

The result? Simpson fired a 22-under to win the RBC Heritage! Gehman also cashed his Top 5 wager on Simpson, a 6-1 payout, and his Top 10 wager on Tyrell Hatton, a 5-1 payout. For the season, Gehman's bets in this article are up nearly 46 units for SportsLine members! That's a return of nearly $4,600 on the standard $100 unit.

This is the same handicapper who called Chez Reavie winning last year's Travelers at 50-1!

Rick Gehman (@RickRunGood) is a co-host of The First Cut podcast (CBS Sports) and a regular contributor to The Pat Mayo Experience (DraftKings).

Here are Gehman's best bets with analysis:

Last week's recap

Finally! After weeks of close calls, we hit an outright winner! Webb Simpson takes the honor and cashes both our +3000 outright ticket as well as our +600 Top 5 ticket. We also cash Tyrrell Hatton's Top 10 wager at +500 odds. Even with the near miss of Corey Conners finishing T21 and us "bubbling" on our Top 20 bet, it was still a massive week. We profited 20.96 units, our biggest week since we started doing this in early February. We are now +45.78 in the last seven events.

Event Preview

After two weeks of courses negating big drivers, TPC River Highlands will begin to remove the training wheels. It's a short course, only 6800 yards, located in Cromwell, CT. While it doesn't require you to be long off-the-tee, it certainly helps! The only defense around here is wind, which doesn't often make a difference. This was the site of Jim Furyk's 58 in 2016, the lowest score ever recorded on TOUR.

Winner - Bryson Dechambeau (+1400) - 0.85 units

Top 5 - Bryson DeChambeau (+300) - 0.40 units

It takes a lot for me to bet outrights on odds this short, which should demonstrate how much I value DeChambeau in this spot. His statistical profile is second to none and he's on the verge of winning each week he tees it up. He finished 3rd at Colonial and 8th at Harbour Town which, in theory, should have been bad course fits for him. TPC River Highlands is going to let him "release the Kraken" and leverage his best asset. DeChambeau is going to win a lot and it could very well start here.

Winner - Sungjae Im (+3500) - 0.55 units

Top 5 - Sungjae Im (+750) - 0.40 units

High upside player missed the cut last week and his odds drop. Sound familiar? We are seeing a carbon copy of what happened to Webb Simpson prior to his victory at Harbour Town. Im missed the cut last week by losing 4.4 strokes putting, by far his worst professional performance. His two worst putting events BOTH took place at Harbour Town, so he clearly hasn't figured those greens out. Look for a bounceback performance from one of the better planets in the world.

Winner - Joaquin Niemann (+4000) - 0.50 units

Top 10 - Joaquin Niemann (+350) - 0.33 units

Niemann is 21 years old and will be incredibly volatile for a few years, but we saw flashes of brilliance last week at Harbour Town. He was third in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green and finished his week with rounds of 63 & 65. Already a winner at this year's Greenbrier, he possesses the upside to actually raise a trophy on Sunday.

Top 10 - Scottie Scheffler (+600) - 0.47 units

I was excited to bet Scheffler last week before a late WD, but he's back in action at TPC River Highlands. The last time we saw Scheffler, at Colonial, his ballstriking numbers were great but he lost over six shots to the field in the short game. Scheffler is not a world class short game player but he's TOUR average. I expect him to rebound with a much more impressive finish this week.

Top 20 - Doc Redman (+750) - 0.40 units

Redman is the #149 ranked player in the world who brought Harbour Town to its knees in the final three rounds last week. After opening with a one-over 72, Redman wrapped up his week with rounds of 66-65-67. He was 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green over those three days, behind only Joaquin Niemann, Abraham Ancer and Sergio Garcia.

Top 20 - Lanto Griffin (+1200) - 0.65 units

It's been a rough re-start for Griffin who has been a bottom dweller on the leaderboard. However, he might have found something with his 67 on Friday while gaining 1.35 strokes on approach in the process. Griffin was a Top 20 machine earlier this season and won at the Houston Open. If he can regain any semblance of that form, you have to love the long odds for a Top 20.

Tournament Matchup - Paul Casey (-110) over Joaquin Niemann (-110) - 1 unit

It may seem counterintuitive to fade a golfer in a matchup while also having an outright on him, but it's all about style of play. Niemann is incredibly volatile with a ceiling higher than most and a floor lower than most. That's the perfect combination for an outright, where winning is the only place that matters. It's much different in a H2H matchup, where we want stability and consistency. This will be Casey's debut post shutdown but he has scorched TPC River Highlands over the years. He has (2) seconds and (2) fifths in the last five years.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:02 AM

Sal Johnson

GOLF

A media legend and consummate golf insider, Johnson absolutely nailed the Travelers Championship last year. Johnson promoted 50-1 long shot Chez Reavie as a potential winner, noting his game was a perfect fit for TPC River Highlands. The result: Reavie cruised to a four-stroke victory, finishing 17-under for his first PGA title in 11 years.

The Travelers Championship

The PGA Tour has gone from Texas to South Carolina and now to Connecticut. For the rest of the year, events will be played on Northeastern-style courses with the exceptions of the PGA Championship in San Francisco and the WGC-FedEx St. Jude in Memphis, Tenn.

The past two weeks, the long hitters have been at a disadvantage. Despite that, Bryson DeChambeau has done well. He finished T-3 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T-8 at the RBC Heritage, playing those rounds in 31 under.

This week, DeChambeau has a chance to win on a course where he can use his length as an advantage. He also finished in the top 10 his last two times out at TPC River Highlands.

Another long hitter, Justin Thomas also played well the first two weeks. He tied for 10th at the Charles Schwab and finished T-8 at Harbour Town. He should love being able to rear back with the driver this week.

The big question will be the other long hitters, like Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Dustin Johnson and Brooks Koepka. I see all of them doing well at the Travelers.

Of the four, Koepka seems to be shaping up the best. He shot four rounds under par at Colonial and tied for 32nd. At Harbour Town, he finished seventh with rounds of 67-66-68-65.

He got off to a slow start and had to make an emergency visit to Butch Harman before the Players Championship. Harman worked his magic, spotting some minor flaws and giving him a boost of confidence.

Koepka doesn't plan to play next week at the Rocket Mortgage Classic, and he wants to be playing well as he takes some time off.

Among the players who come into the Travelers with momentum is Webb Simpson, who won the RBC Heritage. He tied for eighth at the Travelers in 2017 and was T-5 in 2013. He played the par 4s in 13 under at Harbour Town, and that bodes well for the Travelers.

You also have to like Abraham Ancer, who finished second at Harbour Town and was T-14 at Colonial. For his last eight rounds, he is 31 under par, the same score as DeChambeau. Ancer led Greens in Regulation at Harbour Town and played the par 4s in 10 under, which are great signs heading into TPC River Highlands, where he was T-8 last year.

Another player who has been impressive the past two weeks is Justin Rose, who was helped greatly by the break. He tied for third at Colonial with rounds of 63-69-68-66 and tied for 14th at Harbour Town with rounds of 70-67-66-65. So he went under par in all eight rounds, going 30 under, and on a course like TPC River Highlands he should do well. Rose hasn't played at the Travelers since 2013, but in eight starts he was third in 2005, T-9 in 2007 and 2010, and in 2013 he was T-13. We have to keep Rose at the top of our list of favorites.

J.T. Poston tied for 10th at Colonial and was T-8 at Harbour Town, going 28 under in those eight rounds. Poston is hot, but he hasn't made a cut in three starts at TPC River Highlands.

One surging player who hasn't had that problem is Joaquin Niemann, who was T-5 at The Travelers last year. Niemann tied for 32nd at Colonial and was T-5 at the RBC Heritage, and he has been explosive, shooting 63 once and 65 three times over the past two events.

Sergio Garcia missed the cut at the Charles Schwab, but he was T-5 at Harbour Town. In his six rounds, he was under par in five and shot par in the other, so we should keep an eye on him this week. He finished his week at Harbour Town with rounds of 65-65-65. Like Rose, he tends to play more in Europe this time of year and has not played the Travelers since 2015 (T-25th). The previous year, he finished second, a stroke back as Kevin Streelman shot 64 in the final round.

A past Travelers champion who could be coming into his own is Bubba Watson. He has won the Travelers three times (2010, 2015 and 2018), and he finished T-7 at Colonial and T-52 at Harbour Town. The finish was good at the RBC Heritage when you consider he shot 73 in the third round, his only round over 69 the last two weeks. He could knock on the door again this week.

Paul Casey is playing for the first time since the break, and he has been great at the Travelers. In five starts, he is 58 under par and finished T-5 last year, T-2 in 2018, T-5 in 2017, T-17 in 2016 and second in 2015. Before the break, he made the cut in all seven starts with a best finish of 11th, in his last start at the WGC-Mexico Championship. Although he hasn't played recently, you have to consider him this week.

Patrick Cantlay also is making his return from the break, and he has tied for 15th in his last two starts at the Travelers. I am a bit apprehensive about him because of his history of back issues. He also took a month off in February for a surgery to correct a deviated septum, so it's best to see how he is physically.

TPC River Highlands

This will be the 68th edition of the Travelers, and the course is a different type of TPC course. It has been reconfigured from the traditional style, but it still has some of those traits.

Most of the greens are small and raised or crowned, making it a scrambler's delight. But in changing the old-style course into a TPC, they changed a layout that was short and tight to a bomber's delight that makes accuracy much less important.

Since the event moved to TPC River Highlands in 1988, 25 of the 36 tournaments have been decided by either one stroke or in a playoff.

In past years, as many as 80,000 fans would come out for the weekend, there will be no gallery on the course again this week.

Keys to winning

The most important thing at TPC River Highlands is that the course is very forgiving. You don't have to kill too many brain cells to find your way around it. If you drive it long and reasonably straight, you can win.

Just look at the roll-call of past champions -- guys like Jordan Spieth, Bubba Watson, Kenny Perry, Phil Mickelson, Kevin Streelman, Marc Leishman and J.J. Henry -- and it's loaded with guys who hit it a long way.

Making a lot of birdies is important, along with scrambling. The last two winners -- Chez Reavie last year and Bubba Watson the year before -- excelled in this stat, with Reavie ranking second in scrambling last year and Watson was No. 1 in 2018.

You also should look for players who score well on par 4s. River Highlands has only two par 5s, with 12 par 4s, and the past six champions have played the par 4s double digits under par.

Putting also can be overlooked, but those who putt well at River Highlands usually do very well.

√ Hitting it far is more important than accuracy, with 12 of the last 20 champions ranking in the top-13 in Driving Distance. Only seven winners have been in the top 10 in Driving Accuracy the past 20 years.
√ Of the last 15 champions, eight were in the top five in Total Putts, and all but one were in the top 13.
√ TPC River Highlands is a rare venue where hitting greens is not critical to winning. Since 2001, only two of the 19 champions have been in the top-five in Greens in Regulation, while 13 were outside the top seven.
√ Scrambling is crucial here. Winner Chez Reavie was second in getting it up and down on 15 of the 18 greens he missed last year.
√ Playing well on the 12 par 4s is very important, with Reavie going 13 under on those holes last year.

One of these three should win

1. Justin Rose

√ T-3 in Fort Worth and T-14 at Harbour Town and is 30 under par. Has been close to perfect.
√ Hasn't played at TPC River Highlands since 2013. Finished third in 2005, T-9 in 2007 and '10 and T-13 in 2013.
√ Is T-34 in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and 32nd in Par Breakers for the year. He has been showing his game is built to win again.

2. Bryson DeChambeau

√ Was T-3 at Colonial and T-8 at Harbour Town, both courses that don't reward his approach.
√ TPC River Highlands couldn't be better for his game. He was T-8 last year and T-9 in 2018.
√ Is seventh in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 13th in Greens in Regulation, fifth in scrambling, 10th in Par Breakers and T-4 in scoring on par 4s. He could have a great week in Hartford.

3. Brooks Koepka

√ His game seems to get better each time he plays. In his two starts since the break, he has been in the 60s all eight rounds, and he finished seventh at the RBC Heritage. He could go into overdrive this week.
√ He was T-57 last year at Travelers, and his best finish was T-9 in 2016.
√ Forget what his stats are, because they mean nothing when you look at how much better his game has been.

Best of the Rest

4. Justin Thomas

√ Was T-10 at Colonial and T-8 at Harbour Town, going 28 under over the eight rounds. If he can erase that one bad round per event, he'll be a winner.
√ Hasn't been that impressive at TPC River Highlands, except in 2016 when he was T-3, but maybe that is a sign that he can do well.
√ Is third in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 12th in Greens in Regulation, second in Par Breakers and third in par 4 scoring.

5. Abraham Ancer

√ Was second last week and T-14 at the Charles Schwab, playing them in 31 under par. His year has been one of consistency, and he was runner-up at the American Express. He is knocking on the door, and he will hoist a trophy soon.
√ Was T-8 last year at the Travelers, opening with a 64 and closing with a 63.
√ Is 12th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, sixth in scrambling and T-26 in par 4s, all of great stats for TPC River Highlands.

6. Webb Simpson

√ Stunned many by missing the cut the previous week at the Charles Schwab, but he made up for it in a big way by winning at the RBC Heritage.
√ Was T-8 at Travelers in 2017 and T-5 in 2013. Only thing to worry about is if he is exhausted after winning at Harbour Town.
√ Is 14th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, T-10 in Greens in Regulation, seventh in Scrambling, first in Par Breakers and first in par 4 scoring. He could have a great week in Hartford.

7. Bubba Watson

√ Has shown some good finishes in 2020, with T-6 at the Farmers, T-3 at Phoenix and T-7 at Charles Schwab. He played well at the RBC Heritage except for a third-round 73. In his last eight rounds, he is 23 under par.
√ The Travelers has become his little annuity. With three wins, along with a runner-up and a fourth, he has won close to $5 million.
√ His stats have been reasonable, as he is 11th in Strokes Gained Off the Tee, 59th in scrambling, 19th in Strokes Gained Putting and T-22 in scoring on the par 4s.

8. Sergio Garcia

√ He is the hardest player to judge. He's up one minute, like his T-5 at the RBC Heritage, and down the next minute, like his missed cut at the Charles Schwab.
√ Not a regular at the Travelers and hasn't played it since 2015, but he was runner-up in 2014.
√ Is fifth in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, but the rest of his game has been poor, which is why he is so up-and-down.

Players you have to consider

9. Paul Casey

√ He always has done well at River Highlands. In five starts, he has only finished lower than fifth once, when he was T-17 in 2015. He has finished second twice and T-5 twice. In 20 rounds, he is 58 under par as he has been in the 60s 17 times.
√ Has not played since Mexico, when he finished 11th.
√ Is 18th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 29th in Greens in Regulation. His biggest problem is scrambling and putting, so maybe the break helped.

10. Joaquin Niemann

√ Watch him closely, because he could be peaking this week. He was T-32 at Colonial and T-5 at Harbour Town.
√ In his only start at the Travelers, he tied for fifth last year with rounds of 69-65-69-66.
√ Is 21st in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, 18th in Greens in Regulation, T-49 in Par Breakers. He needs to get better on and around the greens.

11. Gary Woodland

√ It's a course he should dominate, but in four starts his best finish was T-20. Maybe this week will be different.
√ Was ninth at the Charles Schwab and T-62 at the RBC Heritage, but we know he has the potential to be a lot better
√ Is 30th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, sixth in Greens in Regulation, 11th in Par Breakers and T-15 in par 4 scoring, and all of these show he could have a strong week.

Their games are in flux

12. Rory McIlroy

√ Has played twice at the Travelers, finishing T-12 in 2018 and T-17 in 2017.
√ His game has been great in the first three rounds, but he struggles on the final day. At Colonial, he shot 74 in the final round, and he shot 70 at RBC Heritage.
√ He has great stats, but if you struggle in the final round, you're not going to be able to win.

13. Jon Rahm

√ Missed the cut at Charles Schwab and was T-33 at RBC Heritage.
√ Hasn't played well at Travelers, finishing T-25 in 2016 and T-64 in 2015. The course doesn't seem to be up his alley.

14. Dustin Johnson

√ His game has been off, as he missed the cut at the Charles Schwab and was T-17 at Harbour Town.
√ In three starts at the Travelers, his best was T-31 in his last start in 2014. The course hasn't inspired him, and he is still working to find something. He won't find it this week.
√ Struggling with every part of his game, has been more accurate off the tee but his putting has been worst than in past years.

Be wary of them

15. Jordan Spieth

√ Showed some promise in his first three rounds at Colonial, but regressed with 71 in the final round. That spilled over to Harbour Town, where he shot 75-69 over the weekend.
√ He won the first year he played at the Travelers, but he was T-42 in 2018 and missed the cut last year.
√ His game is not showing improvement as he tries to find his form from 2015.

16. Patrick Cantlay

√ Was T-15 at Travelers in 2018 and '19, so he can play OK on the course.
√ Making his first start since the break, and we wonder why he didn't play at Heritage on a course where he dominates.
√ He hasn't done well since finishing fourth at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.

17. J.T. Poston

√ He was going great as he finished T-10 at the Charles Schwab and T-8 at the RBC Heritage.
√ He has really struggled at TPC River Highlands, missing the cut in all three starts. It just doesn't seem to be the place for him.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:45 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #1

#11 Graetz	Bond runner takes the MSW plunge after getting a tightener off the break last time, is lightly race with plenty of upside, and goes for a barn that usually heats up this time of year; look out.
#1 Dream Chasing	Heavy hitter is another MSW dropper and adds Lasix too, and Clement has been firing early at the meet as well, though working out a trip from down here can be dicey; underlaid contender.
#9 Plink Freud	ML favorite dropped from the MSW ranks when last seen in Nov. and really didn't wake up, which is a worry, and now the break, plus she has no speed and will be overbet; tread very lightly.
Race Summary	That 9-2 ML on the pick sure seems fair, as not only does she have every right to improve, but Bond is a strong 21% on the drop out of an MSW, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk5 as well, since a win would get things started on the right foot, with a couple of underlaid favorites taking plenty of action.

Belmont Park - Race #3

#5 Street Dance	Clement charge didn't do a lot of running on debut but did break slow from an inside draw, should only improve off that run, and now adds blinkers for more focus too; expecting a turnaround.
#10 Mariner Qui	Dangerous sort ran much better in his second start last time, with a figure that fits with these, and keeps Jose Ortiz too, so if he moves forward once again, he'll be right there; huge chance.
#2 Imperio D	Tactical sort was a wake-up 3rd at 74-1 last time, and a repeat of that puts him on the line with these, though he could regress, and that price is long gone this time around; still, worth a look.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 5 but there's reason to think a lot better is coming today, and even though he was 10th last time, it was a close 10th, and actually already puts him in the mix with this modest group, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's almost assuredly running much better today, which means he would be throwing down a race the rest of these might be hard-pressed to reach,

Belmont Park - Race #6

#2 Makingcents	Lightly raced and improving miss just ran off the screen against MSW foes last time and seems to have a future, and while she'll need to run faster to beat the heavy chalk, there's reason to believe she can, and that miss could be vulnerable, not to mention there's no one else here to fear; call to double up.
#2 Singular Sensation	Expected heavy favorite would win this running backwards if she runs to the neck 2nd to a multiple stakes winner when last seen at the Spa, but that was in August and it was at two turns, so you're allowed to wonder if she's going to need this, as she's likely prepping for that trip next time; trying to beat on top.
#4 Homdel Park	Tricky read was a good 4th on the turf last time and does have some solid dirt runs too, but those on the main track are relatively slow, even the fringe stakes runs, and she's going to be bet bit here too, so while she's hardly impossible, she's still an underlay at this 9-2 ML; limiting her use to underneath only.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the 2, who should have a lot of confidence off the big win last time and might be catching a decisive favorite at the right time, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since a win would likely knock out a lot of budget players, who are hoping 'Sensation is ready to roll off the long layoff.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:45 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Evangeline Downs - Race #2

#2 Krafty Boy	Should get a pretty good go of things from close range here, and he owns a couple of back efforts over the local turf course that offer some intrigue.
#3 Gotta Go	Certainly looks like the one to beat, but I'm not totally sold that he's going to run back to every bit of that big effort last time out, and he'll be a short price.
#5 Freedom Factor	Third behind Gotta Go in that last one, but there isn't a lot of evidence to suggest that she's got much better in her to try to turn the tables today.
Race Summary	Krafty Boy should get the right kind of trip with these, and he has been in with some better groups than this in recent starts. At something like the 5/1 ML offering, he'd be playable here.

Evangeline Downs - Race #6

#5 Distinct Quality	Finisher didn't pick up with better last time out, but the drop offers some hope for improvement in this second start off the break. Why not?
#8 Power Song	Might wind up being too good for these, and his early speed should play very well at this local 7f trip. Those wanting to stand against can point to a couple of other pace horses in here to complicate the trip for him.
#2 Such	Has shown mild finishing ability in recent races, and a decent pace in here might set things up for him to land an underneath spot at a fair price.
Race Summary	Distinct Quality has finishing ability in a race with a decent bit of pace signed on, and something like his two-back run at Fair Grounds would probably handle these.

Evangeline Downs - Race #8

#6 Hey Grace	Owns solid speed in a race where the front end should be there for the taking, and though her pedigree is iffy for the turf, this isn't a super deep race.
#3 Playin N Traffic	Has run a trio of good ones in a row, and she didn't run a bad one in her only career turf try at Fair Grounds. Chance.
#1A Blessed Anna	Has done little wrong since moving to the grass, but the price figures short and there are a couple of viable alternatives to landing here.
Race Summary	Hey Grace should be quick enough to find the front if they want it, but either way she's in line for a great trip right up on the split as she stretches around two turns on the turf.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:46 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Saratoga Harness - Race #1

#8 UNSTOPPABLE HALL	Slowed by pace and stalled cover, tries to upstage perfect in-the-money mark.
#6 TRICKY HANOVER	Good form on paper is offset by short price and breaking habit.
#4 ROLLWITHJESSICA	Tipped 3-wide nearing stretch, trotted evenly to the finish.
Race Summary	Unstoppable Hall saved ground through a single-file half mile, followed the favorite on the final turn, but had to tip 3-wide when her cover stalled, costing her all chance to reach the pace-controlling winner. Play an 8-ALL exacta.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#5 ASHES CASH	Was in good form before shutdown, has back class to handle rise.
#2 VALLEY OF SIN	Steady check-getter this level and starts from favorable spot.
#4 EI EI O	Was on the wrong side of several photo finishes early in the year.
Race Summary	Ashes Cash, once an open company caliber trotter at this track, romped in two lower-level races at Rosecroft before an unsuccessful ‘open’ try before the break. He’s 8-1 on the morning line and a must use in all gimmick wagers.

Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #7

#1 CLIVE BIGSBY	Consistent, well-spotted off qualifying romp for high-percentage connections.
#5 NO DRAMA PLEASE	Gets break from stakes competition, figures close despite 2-25 mark since 2019.
#4 PRINCE OF MINTO	Knows how to win, had useful tune-up, faces better.
Race Summary	Clive Bigsby, a lightly raced 5-year-old, holds steady form, now finds an ideal spot to get back on the winning track. He finished first or second in 15 of 35 starts thus far. Play 1-4 and 1-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 05:46 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#6 Myeerah	Was impressed as she came from just off the pace and was up in time in her debut at Turfway; will get a good pace here and can make a late run vs. these.
#5 Josie	Drops after facing formidable rivals in Ky., La. and Ark.; will be well played because she's from the Cox barn, but her best will make her a strong player here.
#7 Lastchanceforlove	Was impressive in a debut win at Fair Grounds and then tired vs. good rivals at Gulfstream; can get back to good form.
Race Summary	Myeerah can benefit from a fast pace and can win if she runs back to her only start.

Indiana Grand - Race #4

#3 French Vanilla	Was 2nd in a stakes race in her 1st of the year and a similar effort should give her 2nd win.
#5 Forbidden Fruit	Improved position in a 5F sprint in her 1st of the year and could improve in her return.
#7 Real Deputee	Pressed the pace and tired in her 1st of the year and can do better with a more relaxed trip; ran on well in the stretch in her maiden win last year.
Race Summary	French Vanilla was runnerup in a stakes race in her 1st back and she won't have to improve much to win this one.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#2 Beentheredonethat	Was runner-up in his last of 2019 and can be a forward factor for every just of this one; capable of winning her 1st of the year.
#4 Marinas Legacy	Was an easy winner in a state-bred stakes race and will have plenty of support here.
#5 Unbridled Class	Has been with top notch quality, most recently on grass; moves to the dirt and she can keep in this one throughout.
Race Summary	Beentheredonethat has the best betting value of the top contenders and will be tough if she runs back to her last one of last season.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 8	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 8-9-10) 10 Cent Grand High 5 (Pentafecta)
Claiming $12,500 • 1 1/16 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 88 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 5:36P
(PLUS UP TO 40% INDIANA STATE BRED SUPPLEMENT) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF SINCE MAY 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 (INDIANA BRED LIFETIME CONDITIONAL CLAIMING RACES FOR $12,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY). IF THIS RACE IS TAKEN OFF THE TURF, IT WILL BE RUN AT 1 MILE AND 1/16 ON THE MAIN TRACK.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * DIRECT APPROACH: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DELP: Horse ranks in the top thre e in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. OVERPRAISE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
6	DIRECT APPROACH	8/1	3/1
7	DELP	5/2	9/2
2	OVERPRAISE	3/1	8/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	DELP	7	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	88	84	68.5	76.3	71.3
8	MR. SARCASTIC	8	20/1	Trailer	81	75	60.0	70.8	59.3
4	ENGLISH CHALLENGE	4	7/2	Trailer	81	71	53.1	75.8	71.3
2	OVERPRAISE	2	3/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	80	91.6	72.3	64.3
6	DIRECT APPROACH	6	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	96	88	65.4	81.4	76.9
5	BREAKERS POINT	5	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	77	76	74.5	67.8	58.3
3	HAY BO	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	70	62.4	66.8	51.3
1	GLORIOUS WEEKEND	1	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	72	57.0	67.6	55.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:45 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Charles Town

Charles Town - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double (6-7) / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (Races 6-7-8-9)
Claiming $5,000 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 87 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 9:21P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 25, 2019 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE DECEMBER 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $4,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY)(W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * CAPE LOOKOUT: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest aver age Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THOMAS KNIGHT: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. CHERUBIM: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	CAPE LOOKOUT	7/5	9/2
2	THOMAS KNIGHT	6/1	5/1
3	CHERUBIM	3/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	CHERUBIM	3	3/1	Front-runner	87	75	80.6	59.6	53.1
2	THOMAS KNIGHT	2	6/1	Front-runner	89	79	76.2	74.4	68.9
9	SCHLOSSER	9	10/1	Front-runner	79	75	70.2	76.4	64.9
1	MACANAO	1	10/1	Trailer	84	76	39.2	71.0	62.0
8	CAPE LOOKOUT	8	7/5	Alternator/Trailer	90	90	66.2	82.8	80.8
4	ONCE MORE EH	4	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	71	65.8	58.2	46.7
5	MY PEOPLE SING	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	61	55.0	56.0	39.5
7	UPPERVILLE	7	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	74	66	52.8	64.0	49.5
6	GOODBYESEEULATER	6	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	69	48.2	52.8	40.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:46 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #4 - Post: 7:11pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $9,500 Class Rating: 72

Rating:

#2 HONOR MY SPEED (ML=5/1)
#3 HERE COMES HOMER (ML=3/1)

HONOR MY SPEED - He got a decent speed rating the last time he tried this trip. Melancon and Landry partnered with one another are a handicapper's friend. HERE COMES HOMER - Breaux must have known this gelding would run well at this track. Won his last race here on Jun 10th and now goes for two in a row. I like to play this angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid race within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 DICTATOR (ML=9/5), #5 I'LL RAISE YOU (ML=9/2), #7 WHEN I DO (ML=5/1),

DICTATOR - Can't invest in this racer in today's sprint of 7 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a short distance event lately. I'LL RAISE YOU - Finished second in his most recent race with a disappointing speed fig. When I look at today's class rating, it would take an improved performance to triumph after that in this group. WHEN I DO - Hasn't finished in the money in any short distance races of late. Improbable to see him doing it this time around either. Hard to play at 5/1 odds after the last two efforts. Improbable that the speed fig he notched on June 15th will be good enough in this event.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - HONOR MY SPEED - Looks like Landry has been trying to find the right class level for this horse. Took a big drop in class in last race, but returns to a similar level in this affair. Pretty good indication he may win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #2 HONOR MY SPEED on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Woodbine

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Stakes - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 110

JACQUES CARTIER S. - GRADE 3 FOR FOUR-YEAR-OLDS AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $125 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION AND AN ADDITIONAL $1,250 WHEN MAKING ENTRY. THE PURSE TO BE DIVIDED: 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 5% TO FOURTH, 2% TO FIFTH, 1% TO SIXTH 1% TO SEVENTH, 1% TO EIGHTH. WEIGHT: 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A SWEEPSTAKES OF $55,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 NOT SO QUIET 12/1
# 5 PINK LLOYD 1/9
# 3 CIRCLE OF FRIENDS 15/1

NOT SO QUIET has a decent shot to take this affair and is a decent value bet given the line. Casse has him trained solidly to break sharply out of the gate. His 95 average has this gelding with among the most respectable Equibase Speed Figs in this contest. PINK LLOYD - He must be carefully examined given the strong speed numbers. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Hernandez ought to have this gelding in excellent position to win the contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:46 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 6 - Allowance - 250y on the Dirt. Purse: $25000 Class Rating: 82

QUARTER HORSE 250Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LOGANS FIVE BAR 2/1
# 1 CANDY COATED ROGUE 7/2
# 5 JLA GETSUM 8/1

LOGANS FIVE BAR has a formidable shot to take this race. Will almost certainly compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses in this race. Could best this group of horses in this race based on the Equibase Speed Figure - 79 - of her last outing. Has garnered solid Equibase Speed Figs in short races in the past. CANDY COATED ROGUE - The big drop in company can only help out this horse today. Formidable average Equibase Speed Figs in short races make this pony a contender. JLA GETSUM - Carlos has this gelding travelling well and is a very good choice based on the very good Equibase Speed Figures recorded in short races recently. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Carlos running at this distance are the strongest in this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 06-25-2020, 08:47 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Emerald Downs - Race #1 - Post: 5:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1 SHELBY R. (ML=5/2)
#2 PINCHALINCH (ML=3/1)
#3 SMARTY JEANS (ML=10/1)

SHELBY R. - Matias and Lucarelli perform well when they partner up. Tough to top a winning percentage of 33. I have to like this filly's chances of winning at the shorter distance. This filly's last speed figure is lofty enough to win here, I'll invest in her back again in today's event. PINCHALINCH - This filly ran well in her last race but just couldn't catch the winner. Note that she was well ahead of the show horse, and looks like a major contender in this field. This filly is number one in earnings per start. Check out this thoroughbred in the saddling ring. Three consecutive improved speed figures (43-49-56) make this animal a strong contender. SMARTY JEANS - Likes to go to the front of the pack and the fact that today is a shorter distance should help.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 LIVING LEGEND (ML=4/1), #4 FULL SPEED AHEAD (ML=6/1), #5 AUDAZ GIRL (ML=8/1),

LIVING LEGEND - Not easy to wager on any runner in a sprint affair if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last 60 days. FULL SPEED AHEAD - In this circumstance, this runner's inability to close ground in the last race is a reason for concern. Improbable for this participant to make an impact with no recent good showings in a short distance event. This filly notched a speed figure in her last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event. AUDAZ GIRL - Doesn't seem to be in a satisfactory spot this time out.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #1 SHELBY R. To win. Have to have odds of at least 3/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,3]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,3] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

Service Plays Thursday 6/25/20

Service Plays Thursday 6/25/20

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment