Service Plays Thursday 7/2/20

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

PURCHASE
Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 71

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 BRAZEN 3/1
# 7 ROB THE RICH 8/1
# 4 OCEANIC 5/1

BRAZEN seems to be the bet in here. Parker will probably be able to get this colt to break out early in this race. Had one of the top Equibase Speed Figs of this group of horses in his last contest. Has strong Equibase Class Figures relative to this group - worth a look. ROB THE RICH - Overall the Equibase Speed Figures of this equine look decent in this race. Recorded a decent Equibase Speed Fig last time out. OCEANIC - With a sound 84 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's race. Will most likely compete strongly in the early speed contest which bodes well with this group.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

07/02/20, BEL, Race 6, 3.59 ET
07/02/20,BEL,6,1 1/16M [Dirt] 1:39:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $66,000. (UP TO $11,484 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. Weight, 122 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Claiming Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $80,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Life Changer	4-1	Rosario J	Terranova II John P.	SEL	59.26	1.35/$1
098.4091	3	Mister Winston	7/2	Castellano J	Brown Chad C.	FC	59.26	1.35/$1
097.8460	7	Creed	6/5	Ortiz J L	McGaughey III Claude R	T	41.79	1.14/$1
096.5952	4	Edge of Fire	9/2	Velazquez J R	Jerkens James A.		59.26	1.35/$1
095.4571	5	Mr. Shortandsimple	30-1	Vargas. Jr. J A	Rodriguez Rudy R.		59.26	1.35/$1
095.4346	8	Villainous	8-1	Alvarado J	Englehart Jeremiah C.		59.26	1.35/$1
094.5322	6	Liam's Fire	30-1	Davis D	Chichakly Amira	W	41.79	1.14/$1
093.3942	1	Liveyourbeastlife	20-1	Saez L	Abreu Jorge R.	J	59.26	1.35/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 20.83, ROI 0.51/$1

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NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORSTHE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
INDIANA DOWNS
RACE #7
POST TIME: 6:08 PM EST
PICK: #3 Queen of Shades(7/2 Odds) to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

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Paul Leiner

Belmont Park Picks 7/2

Thu Jul 02, 2020 7:09 am
Sandy's Blaze wins the 5th and we hit a small exacta in the 9th at Gulfstream yesterday. Here's three races from Belmont. Goodluck

Race 1
#2 La Kara Mia $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-1-6

Race 7
#2 Sniper Shot $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-9-3

Race 9
#2 Herwaze $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-6-10

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Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

Belmont Park Race 6 (3:59 p.m. ET)
7 Creed (6-5) is the deserving favorite, coming off a seven-plus length maiden special win, which came back with a field-high Beyer Speed Figure. A repeat of that race should win here. The main knock is that that race came on a muddy-sealed track. It rained through the middle of the card, and the track definitely changed. The race was visually impressive, but there's a chance it might not be as good as it looks on paper.

2 Life Changer (4-1) won his debut for trainer John Terranova at 12-1. On Thursday Life Changer stretches out to 1 1/16 miles, and there's every indication that this might be his preferred trip. With the stretchout, he might be clear on the lead. Chance.

3 Mister Winston (7-2) also comes off a debut win, for trainer Chad Brown. He wasn't overly impressive, but he did close into a slow pace for distance. He's another who may appreciate the added distance.

4 Edge of Fire (9-2) disappointed in his last start, but he did have some minor excuses. (He was bumped coming out of the gate, was in tight on the backstretch and brushed in the stretch.) He may have been second best, but I think the others above may have more upside. One more chance.

A: 7
B: 2,3,4

Belmont Park Race 7 (4:32 p.m. ET)
You are not going to find too many allowance races that are this tough as a number of proven stakes horses show up. You have to wonder who's using this as a prep race and if we will see some scratches by connections who were hoping to find an easier spot. This will be a spread race.

Trained Todd Pletcher brings two in here, 2 Sniper Shot (7-2) and 3 Spinoff (7-2), both with a legitimate chance. Sniper Shot looks to be the controlling speed. He's an allowance horse who's in form and may be able to beat the stakes horses who are not 100 percent ready. Spinoff finished second in last year's Louisiana Derby and then had poor runs in the Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes. His first two races in 2020 after an eight-plus month layoff were good, and he should be fit for this.

5 Win Win Win (6-1) gets back to the dirt for the first time since last year's Triple Crown. He endured a tough trip in his return a month ago on turf. The one-turn mile should fit.

6 Nicodemus (6-1) ran in six straight graded stakes before trying the turf off a break. In that race, he showed early speed and stopped. On Thursday he moves back to a trip he's more comfortable with. Must use.

8 Wait for It (12-1) scratched out of the Grade 2 True North Stakes at 6½ furlongs. The sprint at that level was probably too short for him. A mile is a better fit. He could surprise at a price.

Chad Brown brings back 9 Complexity (5-2), last seen finishing a distant fourth in the Grade 1 Malibu. So far, this horse has been all or nothing, winning three of six starts, but finishing fourth, 10th and 11th in his three losses. He's a must-use but hard to trust.

A: 2,3,5,6,8,9
B: None

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
Mount Vernon Stakes
A 6-year-old mare, 1 Fifty Five (4-5) makes her 2020 debut for trainer Chad Brown. She's always been a notch below Brown's best turfers, but she's been dominant in the New York-bred stakes races. She's hard to knock, and Brown brings horses back from layoffs better than anyone. The one to beat.

If you want to beat Fifty Five, the other Chad Brown horse, 3 War Canoe (3-1), may have a tactical edge and may be the one. There is no true pace signed on, and Irad Ortiz Jr. should have this one placed close to, if not on, the lead. She should get first run over her stablemate. That still may not be enough, but she has a chance.

A: 1
B: 3

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
There's not much to choose from in the finale. In November, 2 Herwaze (7-2) ran in her only career race, which is competitive with this field. She showed some tactical speed in that start and will need to do the same on Thursday to secure a good spot breaking from the inside. Good shot.

4 Apollo's Abraxas (10-1) drops into maiden claiming for the first time. She has not shown much, but her first race as a 3-year-old was her best yet, running evenly in a sprint. She might be a little better at 3 and finally gets placed in a spot she can compete in. Chance.

6 Cainudothetwist (9-2) makes her debut for trainer Archibald Kingsley. We're playing a guessing game with this one, but the dam won her debut on turf, and Cainudothetwist's lone sibling's only win was on turf. The sibling (Bourbonfuhrme) won a one-mile turf race at Belmont at 73-1 for --- you guessed it -- Archibald Kingsley. I don't like the morning line, but I'm assuming it will drift higher.

I will make an unconfident stand with those three as A horses and spread on the B line using all the horses who have competitive figures: 1 Molly's Nighthawk (8-1), 10 Central Capital (8-1), 11 Painite (3-1), 12 Mizzen the Mark (6-1).

A: 2,4,6
B: 1,10,11,12

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 7 with 2,3,5,9 with 1 with 2,6 ($16)

All-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 7 with 2,3,5,6,8,9 with 1 with 2,4,6 ($36)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,4 with 2,3,5,6,8,9 with 1 with 2,4,6 ($27)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7 with 2,3,5,6,8,9 with 3 with 2,4,6 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7 with 2,3,5,6,8,9 with 1 with 1,10,11,12 ($12)

Total: $100

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Kyle Marley

UFC 251

Before you make any UFC 251 picks for July 11, you NEED to see the latest predictions from SportsLine MMA expert Kyle Marley. He won the first-ever "ToutMaster" UFC betting contest sponsored by MMAOddsBreaker and also appears regularly on multiple MMA betting and DFS shows. Over the past 16 months, $100 bettors who have followed Marley's picks are up nearly $21,000!


Kamaru Usman (-220) vs. Gilbert Burns (+180): Usman via TKO

Burns looked amazing in his last fight against Tyron Woodley, but this is a big step up here. I thought he had a lot of advantages in that Woodley fight, but in this one, I don't see any other than his Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu game - and maybe his hand speed. I don't think his BJJ will even matter a whole lot here though, because I believe Usman has the wrestling skills to either keep this on the feet or keep Burns on his back without allowing a lot of opportunities to throw up submissions. On the feet, I think Usman will be the stronger guy with the better cardio and probably will throw more volume as well. I just feel this is a bad matchup for Burns and see Usman getting a knockout or a clear decision win here.

Alexander Volkanovski (-195) vs. Max Holloway (+165): Volkanovski via unanimous decision

This is a rematch from December, when Volkanovski took Holloway's featherweight title. Volkanovski clearly won that fight, and his leg kicks were a big factor. He also had the cardio to hang with Holloway over five rounds, which has been a big problem for other fighters in the past. I see this fight being very similar to their first one though, and I have to lean toward Volkanovski getting the win. He is the more powerful guy who is more likely to get a knockout or takedowns, and if Holloway can't figure out a way to stop the leg kicks here, then it will be tough for him to win. Holloway needs to throw some calf kicks of his own and use his movement to minimize Volkanovski's leg kicks. If he can do that and land enough volume on the feet, then he can win at least three rounds and record the upset. I think the line is about right here though, and I will take Volkanovski to win three or four rounds here.

Petr Yan (-260) vs. Jose Aldo (+210): Yan via TKO

This is a fight for the bantamweight belt that Henry Cejudo vacated when he retired in May. I have been very high on Yan and called him a future champion. I didn't think it would come via a win over Aldo, but here we are. I don't think this is a runaway at all, but I do like Yan in this fight. I think he is the more dangerous striker who will be throwing more volume, and I see him having more success the longer this fight goes. But Aldo also can be successful, and if he utilizes his leg kicks like he used to, that will help his chances here. He could get a knockout of his own, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him win three rounds on the judges' scorecards in order to get his hand raised. I just have to lean with Yan as I think he lands a lot of hard shots and ends up putting Aldo away in the latter half of the fight.

Jessica Andrade (+165) vs. Rose Namajunas (-195): Namajunas via unanimous decision

This is a rematch from a year ago, when Andrade knocked out Namajunas with a slam to take the women's strawweight title. This time, they'll go only three rounds, and we have Namajunas as almost a 2-1 favorite. She did look like the much better fighter in that first fight before slammed, and I think she'll look better this time as well. Andrade does have real power though, so she can get a knockout with her hands or a slam, and I believe she is going to need the KO to win this fight. I see Namajunas being the smoother striker, landing more shots and using her movement to avoid the power of Andrade. I thought we would get a better line on Namajunas here since she lost the first fight, but that isn't the case, so I don't think I would want to lay the price here unless she drops a bit. But she is the pick, and she could get a finish of her own.

Amanda Ribas (-800) vs. Paige VanZant (+550): Ribas via unanimous decision

I think this is a terrible matchup for VanZant, and I feel Ribas probably wins this fight nine out of 10 times like the odds indicate. Ribas is better everywhere here and I believe the only way she would lose is to submission from bottom, a guillotine or a rear naked choke if VanZant can get her back. I just think Ribas smokes her on the feet, although she can mop her on the floor as well. Ribas should control every minute of this fight and either get a finish or a clear 30-27 at worst. I don't see how VanZant even wins a round here, and I would expect at least one 10-8 round if this goes the distance.

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Mike McClure

INDY

In IndyCar, it called five of the top-10 finishers in the Indianapolis 500 in both 2018 and 2019.

The projected top 10, according to the model (odds from William Hill)

1. Scott Dixon (4-1)
2. Will Power (5-1)
3. Alexander Rossi (6-1)
4. Simon Pagenaud (5-1)
5. Josef Newgarden (11-2)
6. Colton Herta (10-1)
7. Felix Rosenqvist (7-1)
8. Graham Rahal (25-1)
9. Ryan Hunter-Reay (22-1)
10. Takuma Sato (35-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. James Hinchcliffe
12. Santino Ferrucci
13. Spencer Pigot
14. Pato O'Ward
15. Zach Veach
16. Oliver Askew
17. Marcus Ericsson
18. Marco Andretti
19. Rinus VeeKay
20. Charlie Kimball
21. Conor Daly
22. Max Chilton
23. Sage Karam
24. Jack Harvey
25. Alex Palou
26. Dalton Kellett

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Race of the Week: Metropolitan Handicap at Belmont

July 2, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk

GRADE 1 $500,000 METROPOLITAN HANDICAP AT BELMONT PARK
Saturday, July 4, 2020
By Jeremy Plonk

The Lead:
Independence Day fireworks do not have to wait until sunset. Belmont Park's July 4 card includes 5 major stakes, headlined by the Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap, long a staple on Memorial Day, more recently on Belmont Stakes Day and this year re-slated a bit later due to the COVID-19 shuffling. It's a must-see race that often spawns a superstar performance around Belmont's 1-turn mile trip.

Field Depth:
Grade 1 winners McKINZIE, CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA and HOG CREEK HUSTLE highlight just half the field. MR. FREEZE is Grade 2 winner and Grade 1-placed, while WARRIOR'S CHARGE is a Grade 3 winner and Grade 2-placed. NETWORK EFFECT is Grade 1-placed, while ENDORSED is Grade 3-placed with the most to prove. These are high-quality performers who have competed at elite levels with no discernible 'class' edge.

Pace:
We don't have a champion sprinter like Mitole in this race as we witnessed in 2019. The speed is more route speed, likely to come from outside drawn WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE next door. VEKOMA should be forwardly placed and could be inserted into the fray if Javier Castellano wants to secure the rail into the far turn, but his mount does his best running often outside and could sit third hoping to pounce. This does not appear to be an overwhelming pace and those near the front could be advantaged.

Our Eyes:
CODE OF HONOR and ENDORSED ran 1-2 in the Grade 3 Westchester June 6 at a prep for the Met Mile. Only a half-length separated them, though CODE OF HONOR was returning from a 7-month hiatus and didn't get a great set-up behind a moderate pace. ENDORSED was a bit quicker into the fray, held gamely and validated his 3 previous starts in 2020. It seemed if ENDORSED had CODE OF HONOR's number, it would have been then. The form cycle shift goes to CODE OF HONOR, though the weight shift is significant and now a 7-pound spread in favor of ENDORSED. Even so, CODE OF HONOR has been nearly flawless over the Belmont main track in 4 starts, John Velazquez has won the Met a record 5 times, and trainer Shug McGaughey tasted victory here as recent as 2015 with Honor Code.

McKINZIE finished second in this race a year ago when chasing home the eventual champion sprinter. This is a different kind of Met, but he's versatile enough to be a major force in most scenarios. He is age 5 now and has had an unconventional 2020 season with a trip to Saudi Arabia and return to California. The Triple Bend victory at Santa Anita last out was against inferior competition, but no fault of his own. But just how good is he now? Saturday will be the test. It's notable that 8 straight Met Mile winners, and 9 of the last 10, were 4-year-olds. He's got to show he can skate with the younger speedsters now.

VEKOMA and NETWORK EFFECT completed the Grade 1 Carter exacta over 7 furlongs on June 6, but VEKOMA left no doubt with a 7-1/4 length winning margin. Perhaps the sloppy track propelled some of the gap between rivals, but VEKOMA impressed nonetheless. He's 2-for-2 sprinting at Belmont, but the mile distance obviously is within his scope after capturing last year's Grade 2 Blue Grass over 9 furlongs and 2 turns at Keeneland. Though trainer George Weaver is just 1-for-26 in Belmont 1-turn miles, according to 1/ST BET statistics, VEKOMA seems highly capable of adding to his Carter score at a furlong farther.

WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE exit the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap, where they finished 2-3 behind By My Standards, who returned last week to run a very good second in the Grade 2 Stephen Foster at Churchill. This was a quality effort from both, and their Met chances increase if VEKOMA is rated a bit off their pace. Not only are both of these runners capable of making the front, they've posted 101-103 BRIS late pace figures in their last 5 combined starts. If they are punching at a reasonable tempo, they will not give ground easily in the lane. You'll have to high-tail to run by them.

HOG CREEK HUSTLE will be at the back of the pack with CODE OF HONOR and will need a) pace help, b) clean sailing, and c) a stronger kick than the favored rival. That's a lot to ask, and it still doesn't put him ahead of some of the others. But his best race came here in the Grade 1 Woody Stephens last year at 18-1. So don't tell him that he can't do it. Jose Ortiz rides. This one might be better as a closing sprinter with a faster pace than at a mile.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: CODE OF HONOR will come with his run over his favorite track.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: WARRIOR'S CHARGE and MR. FREEZE have a similar profile and identical path to success. Both appear very live in this spot for one or both to hold for shares. Perhaps the 4-year-old WARRIOR'S CHARGE has the edge on Met Mile history.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): Let's take the main players with the speed price. $35 exacta part-wheel CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA over WARRIOR'S CHARGE ($70); $15 exacta part-wheel WARRIOR'S CHARGE over CODE OF HONOR, VEKOMA ($30).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday, July 4: Gulfstream Park Late Pick 4 Selections

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July 2, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk
The Azalea Stakes and Carry Back Stakes are good early-summer black-type opportunities for Florida’s 3-year-olds and a good chance for players to nail a challenging Late Pick 4 on Saturday.

The Pick 4 begins with the Azalea Stakes for fillies and continues with claimers, the Carry Back and maiden claimers to finish the day.

Here’s a look at the Pick 4 races:

Race 9 (3:00PM ET, Azalea S.)

The Azalea is a good test as the fillies attempt to carry their speed seven furlongs. BANKRUPTONTHEBEACH has had just two starts and showed promise by winning her maiden voyage at Monmouth last July. She was a non-threatening seventh in a stakes race at Laurel in her comeback in February and has had some decent drills for her 1st in about five months. With fresh legs, she could bring an element of surprise against those that have been running lately. DON’T GET KHOZY took several starts in which to figure out this game, and she has had it down pat with wins in four of her last five. Hot-riding newcomer Joseph Trejos is perfect in two starts aboard her and those two have been in easy fashion. A similar effort in this will make her extremely difficult to hold off. BOERNE whistled in three straight races before running second in the Game Face Stakes here. She’s a strong front-runner, has takes on good fillies and likely will get the most play. She’s the one to catch.

Race 10 (3:30PM ET, Claiming)

This is the spread race, as five of these make an appearance on the ticket. RODDICK won the last time he was on turf and can be strong from the beginning. SIR SEAMUS was a clear winner in two of his last three and beat ‘non-winners of three’ last out. TWENTY FOUR SEVEN was claimed two back by the Joseph barn and was third in his return. Has finished well in most of his recent races and can make a run here. AMERICAN NINJA has an upset chance, especially if he runs back to his latest, when he closed from far back and was third, beaten a half-length. He’ll get a good pace to follow and could be the one to watch for in the drive to the wire on the green. HOT AND HEAVY was up in time after stalking from just off the pace and can be close-up throughout. Showed a lot of gameness in his latest, and that definitely makes him a player here.

Race 11 (4:00PM ET, Carry Back S.)

CAJUN BROTHER failed at a mile last time after two wins to begin his career. He’s strong on the front end and can give it an honest go at seven furlongs. Could be the target as they turn for home. OUBLE CROWN was up in time in the Roar Stakes last out and another effort last that one will make him difficult to beat. This is his 1st attempt beyond 6.5 furlongs, and that could be an equalizer for others. WITH VERVE has some quality experience and beat outstanding runners in the Hutcheson. He came from off the pace and was a closing third behind Double Crown in the Roar and likely will appreciate the distance.

Race 12 (4:30PM ET, Maiden Claiming)

DR. SAMADI and CURLINGO are the players on the Pick 4 card in this finale. DR. SAMADI roared from far back and finished second in his debut. Another such effort should get him to the winner’s circle. CURLINGO never showed interest in his only start and quickly takes a drop to a claiming price, which is unusual for a $900,000 yearling purchase. The Edgard Zayas-Todd Pletcher jockey-trainer combo is five of their last 13. The drop could be what it takes for this Curlin colt.

Late Pick 4 Saturday at Gulfstream Park:

Race 9: #1 Bankruptonthebeach, #5 Don’t Get Khozy, #6 Boerne
Race 10: #4 Roddick, #7 Sir Seamus, #9 Twenty Four Seven, #10 American Ninja, #11 Hot and Heavy
Race 11: #2 Cajun Brother, #5 Double Crown, #6 With Verve
Race 12: #2 Dr. Samadi, #3 Curlingo

50-cent Late Pick 4 Suggested Ticket: 1-5-6 with 4-7-9-10-11 with 2-5-6 with 2-3 ($45).