Service Plays Friday 7/3/20

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight - 8.0f on the Turf. Purse: $37000 Class Rating: 90

FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 ASHER'S MUSIC 8/1
# 2 PAINISMYGAIN 12/1
# 1 SUBSTANTIAL 8/5

ASHER'S MUSIC is my selection and is a respectable value bet given the line. He has to be considered given the respectable speed figs. Ought to come out strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved rapidly to the lead recently. Has to be given consideration - I like the numbers from the last race. PAINISMYGAIN - Has been racing well and has among the most respectable speed in the race for today's distance. Over time, this trainer has a quite good ROI at this distance/surface. SUBSTANTIAL - He has been running well as of late while recording solid speed figs. Morse has him trained soundly to break swiftly out of the starting gate.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #6 - Post: 8:05pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $13,000 Class Rating: 48

Rating:

#5 CARLENA (ML=4/1)


CARLENA - This mare should find these state breds easier than what she faced in her last contest on September 2nd. Ran last race out against tougher competition at Louisiana Downs. The move to a lower class rank should suit her well. Have to forget about that last race on the turf. This mare should do better hitting the main track right here in this race. You have to really like that most recent race speed fig, 44, which is the top recent race speed figure of this bunch.

Vulnerable Contenders: #4 AWISHFORGREELEY (ML=9/5), #1 SHAKETHAHATERSOFF (ML=5/2), #2 GIDDY UP GEAUX (ML=6/1),

AWISHFORGREELEY - A bit of a less than stellar outing when this filly finished eighth. SHAKETHAHATERSOFF - That was merely not a very good display in the last race. GIDDY UP GEAUX - Likely won't make much of a mark this time around.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#5 CARLENA is the play if we get odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

07/03/20, GP, Race 8, 3.30 ET
07/03/20,GP,8,1M [Turf] 1:31:02 CLAIMING. Purse $25,000 (includes up to $4,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 123 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over On The Turf Since April 3 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,500, allowed 2 lbs. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 120 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Keepsakekitten	7/2	Zayas E J	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	JTFEC	56.25	1.94/$1
096.6821	8	Uncle Andrew	5/2	Camacho S	Maker Michael J.	W	28.13	1.39/$1
096.6466	7	Verdict Is In	8-1	Reyes L	Dibona Bobby S.	S	28.13	1.39/$1
096.6343	9	Blazing Desire	2-1	Jaramillo E	Sanchez Amador Merei	L	33.90	1.09/$1
095.8374	3	Shanghai Moon	15-1	Lebron V	Hurtak Daniel C.		17.14	1.35/$1
094.1673	1	Mr. Cesco	12-1	Trejos J	Hurtak Daniel C.		33.90	1.09/$1
094.0019	4	Atakan	20-1	Lugo C D	Sancal Murat		23.02	1.05/$1
093.6816	5	Scar	10-1	Vasquez M A	Silva Daniel		33.90	1.09/$1
092.3315	2	Inconveyance	20-1	Panici L	Biancone Patrick L.		28.13	1.39/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.05, ROI 0.60/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Keepsakekitten	7/2	Zayas E J	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	TFEC	35.92	1.19/$1
098.8131	9	Blazing Desire	2-1	Jaramillo E	Sanchez Amador Merei	SL	35.92	1.19/$1
097.9100	8	Uncle Andrew	5/2	Camacho S	Maker Michael J.	J	35.92	1.19/$1
096.5392	7	Verdict Is In	8-1	Reyes L	Dibona Bobby S.		35.92	1.19/$1
095.7198	4	Atakan	20-1	Lugo C D	Sancal Murat		35.92	1.19/$1
095.5483	2	Inconveyance	20-1	Panici L	Biancone Patrick L.	W	34.23	1.21/$1
094.0850	5	Scar	10-1	Vasquez M A	Silva Daniel		35.92	1.19/$1
091.3989	3	Shanghai Moon	15-1	Lebron V	Hurtak Daniel C.		35.92	1.19/$1
089.7512	1	Mr. Cesco	12-1	Trejos J	Hurtak Daniel C.		35.92	1.19/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.10, ROI 1.02/$1

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Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

In January he crushed the Pegasus World Cup, giving out an $8 exacta and a $1 trifecta, winning $757.60. He nailed the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park on both April 9 and April 10, hitting for $827.65 and $394.65. On June 13 Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. And he hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, 19, 25 and on Thursday with last week's score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Those are just some of his hits this year.


Belmont Park Race 7 (4:32 p.m. ET)
7 Magnolia's Lady (7-2) looks like the classic Linda Rice second-time starter who is well meant. Rice hits at 26 percent with second-time starters. In her debut, Magnolia's Lady was slow away and finished well to get fourth. Fitter in her second start, she has every chance.

12 Snicket (3-1) finished second in her last start, as the favorite. She could not get by a 47-1 first-time starter who held on to win. That's a little concerning, but she can definitely improve in her second time on turf. She's the one to beat but no cinch.

9 Pure Bode (8-1) is a first-time starter for trainer Mark Hennig. This setup isn't perfect for Hennig, but this homebred for Patricia Generazio is interesting. The dam has produced several turf runners, most notably Pure Sensation who's been one of the top East Coast turf sprinters for several years. Chance.

11 Fractorzation (6-1) ran OK in her comeback race on June 3. She's the one horse with form and a semblance of speed. If none of the first-time starters show speed, she might get a dream trip on the lead.

A: 7,9,12
B: 11

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
5 Bourbon Bay (4-1) finally drops back into a first-level allowance. After he cleared his maiden in December, the connections gave him a straight diet of state-bred stakes races (and one open attempt). He often ran competitively, so they kept trying. But after four attempts, the connections finally drop him into allowance company. He might be tough in here.

Trainer Rudy Rodriguez sends out a pair, 2 Yankee Division (2-1) and 2b Big Thicket (2-1). Ideally they will both go as Yankee Division looks like the speed in a paceless race, and Big Thicket can lay off and run late. Regardless, I will use one even if the other scratches.

Like Rodriguez, Orlando Noda sends out an entry, 1 Danny California (5-2) and 1a Vintage Hollywood (5-2). Both have run competitive speed figures and fit in here. Either is a must-use even if the other scratches.

3 Six Percent (9-2) returns as a gelding, moving into the James Jerkens barn. He had trouble closing the deal last year for Brad Cox but clearly fits. If the various changes work, he has a chance.

A: 1,2,5
B: 3

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
License Fee Stakes
8 Dalika (5-2) ran a huge race in her first attempt at a turf sprint. She may have found her calling. The extra half furlong here should only help. She's the one to beat. Single A.

I will use a few B horses in case Dalika doesn't transfer her form to Belmont. 2 A Great Time (10-1) ran an OK third off a long layoff and is eligible to improve in her second start back... In her last start, 3 Getmotherarose (6-1) ran on yielding turf against tougher. I'm willing to toss that race... A Jonathan Thomas trainee, 6 Escapade (9-2) always runs well and fits here on or near the lead.

A: 8
B: 2,3,6

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:08 p.m. ET)
9 Adios Amigos (5-2) was a little disappointing in his comeback run on the dirt, but this horse prefers the turf. He's the most likely winner with his first attempt at this level on the turf.

6 Shandian (6-1) and 7 Our Troubadour (3-1) are very similar looking horses. They've lost 12 and nine races respectively. I would normally throw them out, but they are clearly better on the turf, so they are not as hopeless as they look at first glance. There's not a lot to like in here, so I'll give them both a chance.

1 J's Warrior (12-1) is worth a look. His lone turf race was terrible, but that was his first start. He then immediately was laid off for 11 months. He has shown speed since returning, and maybe he can transfer that to the turf now that he's proven he can run a little.

10 Determined One (10-1) has run twice on turf, and both starts were going long against tougher. He showed some speed in his last start on dirt. Worth considering.

11 Mommie's Jewel (12-1) is anyone's guess with the switch to turf, but he's bred decently for the move. He also drops from maiden special. He has a chance if he takes to the surface.

A: 6,7,9
B: 1,10,11

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 7,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 9 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($27)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 11 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 3 with 8 with 6,7,9 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 2,3,6 with 6,7,9 ($40.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 7,9,12 with 1,2,5 with 8 with 1,10,11 ($13.50)

Total: $102

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Paul Leiner

Belmont Park Picks 7/3

Fri Jul 03, 2020 5:51 am
La Kara Mia comes in second and we hit the 1-2 exacta for $21.40. Lost the other two races. Three more races from Belmont today. Goodluck.

Race 1
#3 Winfromwithin $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-5-2

Race 5
#5 Eye Luv Lulu $10 wps
$2 exacta box 5-6-7

Race 9
#3 Getmotherarose $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-8-6