Service Plays Saturday 7/4/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jul 04 '20, 11:05 AM in 2h
PGA | Cameron Champ vs Sam Burns
Play on: Cameron Champ +100 at jazz

1* Free Play on Cameron Champ +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Fair Meadows

Fair Meadows - Race 6	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta / Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 6-7-8)
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 82 • Purse: $11,500 • Post: 8:05P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * FAVORITE FLIGHT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. AMERICANNA: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. JJS CANDYS GONE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. WIND CHARGED: Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). AJ WINZET: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Fig ure at the distance/surface.
4	FAVORITE FLIGHT	2/1	5/1
1	AMERICANNA	8/5	6/1
2	JJS CANDYS GONE	9/2	7/1
7	WIND CHARGED	6/1	8/1
5	AJ WINZET	12/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	AMERICANNA	1	8/5	Average	76	77	3.9	0.0	0.0
2	JJS CANDYS GONE	2	9/2	Slow	76	73	6.8	0.0	0.0
3	KB PAPA	3	15/1	Slow	76	65	7.8	0.0	0.0
4	FAVORITE FLIGHT	4	2/1	Slow	80	75	7.8	0.0	0.0
5	AJ WINZET	5	12/1	Slow	77	70	8.0	0.0	0.0
6	FLYING MRJOHNNYB	6	12/1	Average	69	55	4.6	0.0	0.0
7	WIND CHARGED	7	6/1	Slow	79	71	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Wyoming Downs

Wyoming Downs - Race 9	$2 First Half Late Daily Double / $2 Quinella / $2 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta ($.10 Box)
Stakes • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 4:25P
INAUGURAL H. - THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. FREE NOMINATIONS BY JUNE 24, 2020. $150 TO ENTER. $500 SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION MAY BE MADE AT THE TIME OF ENTRY AND SHALL INCLUDE ALL FEES. (HIGH WEIGHTS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. JUST CALL ME KEN is the Lone Trailer of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * OLIMPIO'S SCAT CAT: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. GOLD FLIGHT: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating. IMA SOONERS FAN: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. FULKERSON: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
1	OLIMPIO'S SCAT CAT	5/2	9/2
4	GOLD FLIGHT	3/1	5/1
3	IMA SOONERS FAN	15/1	7/1
5	FULKERSON	8/1	9/1

---

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	OLIMPIO'S SCAT CAT	1	5/2	Front-runner	84	86	0.0	73.6	69.6
3	IMA SOONERS FAN	3	15/1	Alternator/Front-runner	82	80	53.5	64.6	54.6
5	FULKERSON	5	8/1	Stalker	85	68	50.5	70.4	61.4
4	GOLD FLIGHT	4	3/1	Stalker	84	89	0.0	86.0	81.0
7	OH BE ONE	7	7/2	Stalker	81	79	0.0	74.2	63.2
6	JUST CALL ME KEN	6	6/1	Trailer	78	74	57.8	70.0	60.5
2	SPEEDIN WITH EDDIE	2	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	88	63	0.0	67.0	61.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #2 - Post: 1:20pm - Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,900 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#6 LAS ANA (ML=8/1)
#3 MAXIMIZER (ML=3/1)


LAS ANA - I think Thistledown players know a good thing when they see the jock/handler tandem of Gonzalez and Inirio. Their winning percentage together has been good. I really like sprinters that make a rapid turnaround. Trainer Inirio moves this horse down in the class scale to face a less competitive field. Look for a nice race this time out. MAXIMIZER - A pony coming back this soon after a sharp outing is a good signal. Last race was at Thistledown in a race with a class figure of 75. Dropping a significant amount in Equibase class figure this time puts him in a solid position today. I do like the fact this gelding is back in a race so quickly. Have to like the way Gorham has raced this gelding back into shape off the layoff. Horse is well spotted in this sprint and I think he'll run well today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 NOBLE BEHAVIOR (ML=4/1), #8 ODDS GET EVEN (ML=9/2), #7 CATS VALENTINE (ML=6/1),

NOBLE BEHAVIOR - This horse just hasn't looked fit of late. This gelding is always around, but just doesn't win. Tough to bet on him on the top end. ODDS GET EVEN - No races since Feb 29th, probably too long ago to do anything this time out. CATS VALENTINE - Looked like he may have had some physical problems when he ran on Jun 15th. Awfully tough to wager on any racer that just won a Maiden Claimer, then steps up to face winners. In the last race it was a nice victory, but in this one the stretch run is going to be a true test of courage.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - MAXIMIZER - I start with the class in the group then work my way down. This one's got the top earnings per start. No need to look further.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #6 LAS ANA to win if you can get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 10 - Futurity - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $357981 Class Rating: 99

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, LADDIE FUTURITY S. - FOR TWO YEAR OLD COLTS AND GELDINGS, WHICH ARE ACCREDITED LOUISIANA BRED QUARTER HORSE FOALS OF 2018, WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE FOR THE LADDIE FUTURITY. WITH $75,000 ADDED PLUS ALL NOMINATION, SUSTAINING, AND SUPPLEMENTAL NOMINATION FEES WILL BE DISTRIBUTED AS FOLLOWS: 50% TO FIRST, 17% TO SECOND, 10% TO THIRD, 7% TO

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SIR LOUISIANA DASH 2/1
# 10 OUGHT TO GO TEE 6/1
# 9 SAN LORENZO 6/1

My selection for this race is SIR LOUISIANA DASH. Could provide positive returns based on very strong recent Equibase Speed Figs with an average of 99. Must be given a shot based on the decent speed fig recorded in the last contest. Marquez has this gelding running well and is a very good pick based on the strong Equibase speed figs garnered in short races as of late. OUGHT TO GO TEE - There is a formidable chance that this entry's late pace will improve with second time Lasix. Could best this group of animals based on the Equibase Speed Fig - 96 - of his last affair. SAN LORENZO - The Lasix change (with second time Lasix) may spark a reversal of fortune for this colt. With a solid 89 speed rating last time out, will surely be a factor in this affair.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Camarero Race Track

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

---

Race 3 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $6500 Class Rating: 75

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 3 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $8,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 DIXIELAND UNION 3/1
# 4 TASADOR JULIO R. 2/1
# 2 NATIVE CROSS 8/5

DIXIELAND UNION should be supported as the wager in here. Earned a quite good Equibase speed fig last time out. A solid 75 avg Equibase class figure may give this colt a distinct class edge against this field. With a sound 69 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest. TASADOR JULIO R. - Should be carefully examined here on the basis of the numbers in the speed section alone. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Morales have shown strong results recently. NATIVE CROSS - He must be given a chance given the respectable speed figures. Ran a strong last race.

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Cross Country Pick Four - Race #2 - Post: 5:15pm - Stakes - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $125,000 Class Rating: 101 DEL (Grade 3)

Rating:

#3 PIXELATE (ML=3/1)
#6 GUFO (ML=5/2)


PIXELATE - This colt is very reliable, frequently finishing in the money. This horse has recorded the best recent turf speed figure at the distance-surface. Horses out of the barn of Stidham have been solid on the grass. Should do well today. I like to play this handicapping angle, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid outing within the last month. GUFO - This horse's record for this distance is solid. Clement is solid in grass routes. This animal should have no justifications if he doesn't win. This colt has the top turf number in his last race. It doesn't take a college grad like The Brain to figure this here entrant has a good chance. This colt's last speed fig is high enough to score here, I'll wager on him back again in today's event. The improved Equibase speed figs over the last 3 races is strong. Clement drops him in this event conditioned to win.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 VANZZY (ML=4/1), #4 BYE BYE MELVIN (ML=6/1), #7 SUNSATION (ML=6/1),

VANZZY - He showed not much at all in the last event. BYE BYE MELVIN - That was just not a very good exhibition in the last clash. SUNSATION - Substandard fig last time around the track at Gulfstream Park at 1 1/8 miles. Don't believe this runner will improve too much in today's race.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - GUFO - One of the class angles that my buddy Solo Steve and I play, is to look at the lifetime earnings per start. This thoroughbred is at the top in my book.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #3 PIXELATE to win if we can get at least 5/2 odds

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

07/04/20, LRL, Race 9, 4.40 ET
07/04/20,LRL,9,1M [Turf] 1:33:02 STARTER OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $28,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $25,000 OR LESS AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING $25,000 AND WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race At A Mile Or Over Since May 4 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000 (Races Where Entered For $20,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at One Mile) (Rail at 52 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Bayou Jam	10-1	Rosado J	Camejo Jose M.	L	32.16	1.55/$1
099.4893	7	Rising Perry	6-1	Whisman A	Dilodovico Damon R.	W	32.16	1.55/$1
098.6564	2	Skyjacked	12-1	Hamilton W	Bailes W. Robert	FEC	32.16	1.55/$1
098.6103	4	Team Effort	7/2	Montanez R	Vera Miguel		32.16	1.55/$1
098.1807	1	Noble Lion(b+)	3-1	Pimentel J	Rubley Kelly	J	32.16	1.55/$1
097.9169	12	Real Factor	6-1	Marquez C	Lawrence. II James L.		32.16	1.55/$1
097.2573	5	Haz a Notion	12-1	Boyce F	Bentley Fenneka T.	S	32.16	1.55/$1
096.5727	3	Once in a Lifetime	20-1	Russell S	O'Dwyer Jeremiah	T	32.16	1.55/$1
095.4445	8	Baytown Jimbo	8-1	Toledo J	McMahon Hugh I.		31.82	1.41/$1
095.3750	13	Bold Trek	12-1	Marquez C	Smith Hamilton A.		31.82	1.41/$1
094.5639	9	Up Against It	30-1	Karamanos H	Graham Robin L.		32.16	1.55/$1
093.8558	6	Determined Pursuit	30-1	Rosales V	Schoenthal Phil		32.16	1.55/$1
092.1591	11	Irish Crossing	30-1	Gomez K	Gamber Robert E.		31.82	1.41/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 34.69, ROI 1.46/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Bayou Jam	10-1	Rosado J	Camejo Jose M.	L	24.42	1.09/$1
099.9102	1	Noble Lion(b+)	3-1	Pimentel J	Rubley Kelly	J	24.42	1.09/$1
098.8807	2	Skyjacked	12-1	Hamilton W	Bailes W. Robert	FEC	24.42	1.09/$1
098.6973	5	Haz a Notion	12-1	Boyce F	Bentley Fenneka T.	S	24.42	1.09/$1
098.6018	4	Team Effort	7/2	Montanez R	Vera Miguel		24.42	1.09/$1
098.3984	12	Real Factor	6-1	Marquez C	Lawrence. II James L.		24.42	1.09/$1
096.7436	8	Baytown Jimbo	8-1	Toledo J	McMahon Hugh I.		24.42	1.09/$1
096.1097	3	Once in a Lifetime	20-1	Russell S	O'Dwyer Jeremiah	T	32.31	1.02/$1
095.6748	13	Bold Trek	12-1	Marquez C	Smith Hamilton A.		24.42	1.09/$1
095.4661	7	Rising Perry	6-1	Whisman A	Dilodovico Damon R.	W	24.42	1.09/$1
093.1927	6	Determined Pursuit	30-1	Rosales V	Schoenthal Phil		32.31	1.02/$1
092.9090	9	Up Against It	30-1	Karamanos H	Graham Robin L.		24.42	1.09/$1
092.8432	11	Irish Crossing	30-1	Gomez K	Gamber Robert E.		24.42	1.09/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.68, ROI 0.82/$1

---

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

07/04/20, GP, Race 1, 12.00 ET
07/04/20,GP,1,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $19,000 (includes up to $2,000 FHBPA-FOA - FHBPA Florida Owners Awards). FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, if for $10,500, allowed 1 lb. (If deemed inadvisable to run this race over the turf course, it will be run on the main track atOne Mile) (Rail at 120 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Herculina	8-1	Pino M G	Ward Wesley A.	JTW	25.00	1.41/$1
096.5935	10	Couple of Nikkis	6/5	Jaramillo E	Orseno Joseph F.	SL	21.15	0.66/$1
095.5292	3	Veer	5-1	Arroyo A S	Lynch Brian A.		21.15	0.66/$1
093.8100	7	Wonder Blondy	3-1	Gonzalez S	Rodriguez Juan Andres	FEC	21.15	0.66/$1
093.4486	1	Dakota Beach	30-1	Fuentes M	Miller Rory C.		25.00	1.41/$1
092.9541	9	Pasatime	20-1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos		25.00	1.41/$1
092.5385	4	Zandrea's	10-1	Vasquez M A	Walder Peter R.		25.00	1.41/$1
091.2055	2	Lookn Fine as Wine	15-1	Garcia J A	Acker Scott D.		25.00	1.41/$1
090.6907	6	Emilia Strong	30-1	Olsson F	Mejia Jaime		25.00	1.41/$1
089.4248	8	Ms. Outrajes	30-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Quinones Jennifer A.		25.00	1.41/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.05, ROI 0.60/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Herculina	8-1	Pino M G	Ward Wesley A.	JTW	34.23	1.21/$1
095.8705	3	Veer	5-1	Arroyo A S	Lynch Brian A.	S	35.92	1.19/$1
095.4284	10	Couple of Nikkis	6/5	Jaramillo E	Orseno Joseph F.	FL	35.92	1.19/$1
092.6464	7	Wonder Blondy	3-1	Gonzalez S	Rodriguez Juan Andres	EC	35.92	1.19/$1
092.5254	4	Zandrea's	10-1	Vasquez M A	Walder Peter R.		35.92	1.19/$1
092.4300	9	Pasatime	20-1	Reyes L	Avila Juan Carlos		35.92	1.19/$1
091.5131	2	Lookn Fine as Wine	15-1	Garcia J A	Acker Scott D.		35.92	1.19/$1
090.8107	6	Emilia Strong	30-1	Olsson F	Mejia Jaime		35.92	1.19/$1
090.5895	1	Dakota Beach	30-1	Fuentes M	Miller Rory C.		35.92	1.19/$1
088.6759	8	Ms. Outrajes	30-1	Allen. Jr. R D	Quinones Jennifer A.		35.92	1.19/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.10, ROI 1.02/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:13 p.m. ET)
Poker Stakes
There are lots of options to start off the late Pick 4. I will spread here and get narrow later.

Chad Brown, as expected, sends out two in the Poker, both with solid chances: 2 Valid Point (7-2) and 9 Value Proposition (5-2). Value Proposition may go as the favorite coming off his career-high Beyer Speed Figure (100) in his 4-year-old debut. But that was against an allowance field -- albeit a very good allowance field -- but there are still some questions against a field of this level. Valid Point had a nice win in the Grade 1 Secretariat last summer and then disappointed in the Grade 1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Layoffs are no real concern when dealing with a Brown horse. He could be this good.

3 Hawkish (12-1) had a better than looked race in his last start, at seven furlongs. He got a little stuck inside entering the stretch, and when he made it outside, it was much too late. He was really reaching out after that and could be ready for best yet in his third start off a layoff and at his best distance.

I will use the remainder of the horses -- except for main-track-only runner 8 Its All Relevant (3-5) -- at the B level since a case can be made for all of them

A: 2,3,9
B: 1,4,5,6,7

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:47 p.m. ET)
Met Mile
7 Mr Freeze (8-1) may get lost in the shuffle against this field, but he is clearly a player by any measure. He's been racing in graded stakes for the last year, winning a Grade 2 and a Grade 3 and finishing second in a Grade 1. His best Beyer Speed Figure came at this one-turn mile distance, and he has produced four triple-digit Beyers in his last six starts. (The other two are 98 and 99). He can stalk the pace or take over if the opportunity presents itself. Jockey Manny Franco was on for his Grade 2 win in the Gulfstream Park Mile (107 Beyer). The expected price is too good to pass up. Key horse.

2 Vekoma (5-2) has looked like the real thing in his first two starts of the year, both at seven furlongs. The mile should not be a problem, but can he build off his last effort (110 Beyer)? That's a tough call. He's the "now" horse and will be bet off that race. He can win but may have a tougher go of it with pace horses to his outside.

5 Code of Honor (3-1) returned with an impressive win in the Grade 3 Westchester. It had the look of a prep race while still resulting in a 101 Beyer. Code of Honor did most of the work on his own and was only mildly encouraged to move up on the turn. He should be tighter for this race, and if they go too fast, he may run them all down late.

You have to draw the line somewhere. 3 McKinzie (2-1) is the most accomplished horse in here, but there is a reasonable question if he's what he used to be. Trainer Bob Baffert sent him to Saudi Arabia in February for the Saudi Cup, and he was a complete no-show. He returned in the Grade 2 Triple Bend at seven furlongs and won but with a lower Beyer Speed Figure (98) than any of his seven races last year. The optimist will say the Triple Bend was a prep and he's now cranked for the Met Mile. That's entirely possible, but with him being the morning-line favorite, I will try to beat him.

A: 2,5,7
B: 3

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:20 p.m. ET)
Manhattan Stakes
Grade 1 turf races go through trainer Chad Brown. He sends out three in the Manhattan, all with legitimate shots.

2 Rockemperor (5-1) returns from Santa Anita where he was disqualified while finishing second in the Grade 2 Charlie Whittingham. This 4-year-old may be running fastest late. He still has upside and is the top selection.

Trained by Mike Maker, 3 Cross Border (10-1) has a chance to steal this race. If Spooky Channel does not apply pressure from the outside, this horse can be clear on an easy lead and will take some catching. Upset chance.

1 Instilled Regard (2-1) beat his stablemate Devamani in the Fort Marcy in his last start. He was preferred in the wagering that day and has faced better over his career. Must use.

5 Devamani (9-2) must be included due to his close-up finish against Instilled Regard in his last start. He might just be a different horse now that he's with Brown, but I can't get over the fact that he ran in 12 straight allowance races after coming to this country in 2018.

A: 1,2,3
B: 5

Belmont Park Race 11 (6:51 p.m. ET)
Suburban Stakes
Now 6-years-old, 4 Mr. Buff (2-1) gets another attempt at an open graded stakes. This looks like his best chance by far to claim that graded win. He has the opportunity to attend a reasonable pace and get first run entering the stretch. Clearly the top horse of those on the pace, Mr. Buff will need to hold off the late runs of Sir Winston and Tacitus. I think today's the day.

The winner of last year's Belmont, 6 Sir Winston (7-2) disappointed in his last start chasing Moretti, who was able to set a slow pace on a sloppy track that favored frontrunners. I'll forgive Sir Winston for that start. He has a chance to rebound.

People seem to either love him or hate 1 Tacitus (9-5). On Saturday he goes back to the blinkers, which seemed to keep him more engaged early when they were tried last year. He hasn't seemed to progress as a 4-year-old. He still could, but I'm against him. I will use him as a B horse for protection, as his best race can win this.

A: 4,6
B: 1

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 2,3,9 with 5,7 with 2,3 with 4 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 2,3,9 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 ($54)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 1,4,5,6,7 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 ($45)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,9 with 3 with 1,2,3 with 4,6 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,9 with 2,5,7 with 5 with 4,6 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 2,3,9 with 2,5,7 with 1,2,3 with 1 ($13.50)

Total: $142.50

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Belmont Graded Stakes Pick 4 Analysis

---

July 3, 2020 | By Johnny D


Saturday, Belmont serves up a graded stakes pick 4 feast racing fans and horseplayers should consume with delight. Portions aren’t overly generous—there are fields of 8-9-8-8 runners in races 8 through 11, respectively--but the quality is exceptional. Think fine dining versus all-you-can-eat buffet. Michelin stars not tires.

The Grade 3 Poker pops the seal on the deal in race 8 at approximately 5:13 ET. It’s a $150,000 one mile, one turn, turf race topped on paper by multiple Gr. 1 winner millionaire mare Got Stormy against a gang of male foes. Trainer Chad Brown dispatches the lightly raced Grade 1 winner Valid Point as a more than worthy adversary.

The $500,000, Grade 1 Metropolitan Handicap is next as race 9. You may recognize the race by its more casual moniker ‘The Met Mile.’ As sweet-smelling a rose by either name, it’s seasonally one of the nation’s top encounters, a sire-making squabble contested around one turn—an inch or two too far for confirmed speedballs and a tad short for dedicated plodders. The race, however, hits racing fans and horseplayers right between the eyes and usually produces an entertaining outcome.

Bob Baffert-trained McKinzie, troubled runner-up in this race last year to Eclipse Award winning sprinter Mitole, returns to right that wrong. He’s the 125-pound starting high weight and will spot rivals from 16 to 128 ounces. Recent Gr. 3 Westchester winner and Belmont track lover Code of Honor will carry 124 pounds, one more than recent Gr. 1 Carter winner Vekoma.

Race 10, third leg of the all graded stakes pick 4, is the $400,000 Manhattan at one mile and one-quarter on turf. Channel Maker, a Gr. 1 winner of over $2 million, shoulders top weight of 122 pounds. Sadler’s Joy, a 7-year-old warrior, with over $2.5 million in the bank also will draw wagering attention. Multiple Eclipse Award-winning trainer Chad Brown, the dominant force in local and national turf racing, has three runners in the race that can’t be overlooked.

The wager concludes with the 11th race, the $200,000, Gr. 2 Suburban at a mile and one-quarter on the main track. A couple of 2019 Triple Crown race survivors figure mightily as Belmont winner Sir Winston and Kentucky Derby third-place finisher and Belmont runner-up Tacitus meet.

Here’s one man’s humble opinion on how to play this tantalizing quartet of races:
Race 8
Analysis of this race begins with #7 Got Stormy, a 5-year-old mare with over a million and one-half in the bank. She got good in March of 2019 and proved a force against males in Gr. 1 competition—she won the Fourstardave at Saratoga, was second in the Woodbine Mile and Breeders’ Cup Mile—before winning the Gr. 1 Matriarch against fellow female foes. She returned in Feb. 2020 to lay a huge egg when fourth against females at $.20 to the dollar in the Gr. 3 Endevour at Tampa Bay Downs. She bounced back mightily to miss by a neck to the tenacious River Boyne in the Gr. 1 Frank Kilroe at Santa Anita. Two months off produced another disappointing Gr. 3 effort when #7 Got Stormy was fourth in Belmont’s Beaugay at a mile and one-sixteenth on turf. Which Got Stormy are we likely to see in the Poker? One of the nation’s top mile turf performers of any sex? Or, a mare that struggles in Grade 3 races against females? Regular rider Tyler Gaffalione is replaced by Hall of Fame member John Velazquez, a signal that someone is not happy with the way things have been going—that could be the jock, the trainer or the owner. While #7 Got Stormy is the most accomplished in this field, she’s got some blemishes on her recent resume and it feels as if her connections are attempting to right the ship. We’re not positive she’s as sharp as she once was. Taking a stand against her in this first leg is a big gamble, but it might be a good idea.

#2 Valid Point hails from the Chad Brown stable. In a graded New York-based turf stakes race you almost don’t need to analyze anything else. Use this horse. He’s already a Gr. 1 winner against fellow 3-year-olds last year and has had just four starts overall. He’s been gone since October, but Brown’s great at bringing them back sharp. Unlike the situation with #7 Got Stormy where it feels like they’re trying to get back on track, this appears the perfect spot to begin this colt’s 2020 season on a turf course he likes.

#9 Value Proposition is another Chad Brown trainee in the race. If you’re going to take a shot against #7 Got Stormy, you’d better have this guy in play. He won his most recent start—a $62k/optional claimer, so he’s sharp. That’s his third win in four lifetime starts—two out of three coming on Belmont turf.

#4 Seismic Wave is an interesting possibility. He’s 2 for 2 at the distance and rallied 7 wide last out to be fourth, just one length away from winning. This 4-year-old made some big dances last year in graded stakes races. He could be finding his best stride this year. Jockey Eric Cancel is replaced by the terrific Joel Rosario in here and the latter has ridden the ridgeling five times before, to some success.

Race 9
#2 Vekoma deserves much respect in here. He’s razor sharp, off a 7 ¼ length Gr. 1 Carter win at Belmont on the slop. It was by far the fastest race of his career. He’s now won five of seven starts and nearly one million dollars in purse money. His only two losses came in the 2019 Fountain of Youth and in the Kentucky Derby. In the former he chased home Code of Honor who’s also in this race. This colt has enough speed to lay close to the early pace and the one-mile distance is no issue. He’s got a funny way of going but he’s all business.

#3 McKinzie should have won this race last year but he and jockey Mike Smith ran into some traffic issues. That’s to be expected, after all, they were in New York. They’re back for redemption this year with trainer Bob Baffert again calling the shots. This 5-year-old horse is a multiple Gr. 1 winner who showed his fitness by winning at a short price in the Gr. 2 Triple Bend at Santa Anita last out. The Beyer Speed Figure was not close to his better efforts, so one could approach him with a tentative posture. However, he’s difficult to ignore in here.

#5 Code of Honor comes off a workmanlike half-length tally in the Gr. 3 Westchester—his first race since November’s disappointment in the BC Classic. This colt loves Belmont—3 wins in 4 starts—and has a first and a second out of three one-mile starts, all around one turn. Hall of Fame trainer Shug McGaughey, a veteran Big Apple conditioner, knows what kind of horse it takes to win this race. Expect a top performance.

#7 Mr. Freeze is a new face to Belmont Park, but he’s no stranger to one-turn mile races where he’s 2 for 2. He’s got enough speed to be close up in a great striking position. He’ll be a price and a huge separator if he happens to fire over this surface.

Race 10
Trainer Chad Brown will saddle three runners in this race: #1 Instilled Regard, #2 Rockemperor and #5 Devamani. None can totally be discounted. This race is a bit of an old-timer’s game featuring two runners who’ve earned over $2 million—7-year-old #4 Sadler’s Joy at $2.5 million and 6-year-old #6 Channel Maker at $2.1 million. Of the remaining six runners, there are two 6-year-olds and one 7-year old.

#4 Sadler’s Joy was fourth in this race in 2018 and ran well in the Tiller June 4 at Belmont, but he’s just 1 for his last 7 starts and a weak 1 for 11 on Belmont turf.

#6 Channel Maker was fourth in this race last year and hasn’t put it together this year, finishing fourth, eighth and eighth in three 2020 starts.

While no one stands out in here, #2 Rockemperor seems the most attractive off a narrow loss to the highly regarded United in the Gr. 2 Charles Whittingham at Santa Anita. Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez subs for the sensational Irad Ortiz, Jr., who remains with stablemate #1 Instilled Regard, winner of the Gr. 2 Fort Marcy over this course last out. Must use both of these Chad Brown-trained runners.

#7 Dot Matrix is a 7-year-old with 10 wins from 33 lifetime starts. He was second last out in the Tiller at Belmont, two lengths in front of #4 Sadler’s Joy. He’s not without a chance at a price in a wide-open event.

Race 11
Ever wonder what happens to the previous year’s Triple Crown headliners? Some of them end up in the Suburban: 2019 Belmont winner #6 Sir Winston meets Kentucky Derby fourth (placed third via DQ) and Belmont runner-up #1 Tacitus.

In 2019, #6 Sir Winston parlayed a Gr. 3 Peter Pan runner-up finish into a Gr. 1 Belmont Stakes triumph. He returns to the scene of his most prestigious success for the second time—he was a well-beaten second against #8 Moretti in the Flat Out stakes last out June 11 over a sloppy track. He has a grinding, off the pace style that excels at Big Sandy where he’s been first once and second twice in three tries. However, at this mile and one-quarter distance, instead of the mile and one-half Belmont journey, we’ll favor #1 Tacitus over Sir Winston in this rematch.

#1 Tacitus hasn’t won a race since April 6, 2019, but don’t hold that entirely against him. He’s faced some of the best of his generation and some salty older runners. He was second in the Gr. 1 Belmont, Gr. 2 Jim Dandy and Gr. 1 Travers, as well as third against elders in the Gr. 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup and fifth in the Gr. 1 Saudi Cup. Last out he was fourth in the Gr. 2 Oaklawn Handicap. Before all that, He knocked down three wins in a row— a maiden, the Gr. 2 Tampa Bay Derby and the Gr. 2 Wood Memorial. Blinkers go back on for the Suburban. He’s not a ‘win’ type, but he’s got three workout bullets in his Suburban holster and deserves top billing.

#4 Mr. Buff is a hard-knocking New York bred that likes to win races. He’s tried similar foes at this level before and come up well short, but you’ve got to love his speed and his winning attitude. He might be a worth a look as a possible upsetter on larger tickets.

#8 Moretti takes a big step up in class, but he’s sharp 4-year-old, with two wins in his last two races. He hails from the Todd Pletcher barn, hitting at 24% this meeting. There’s a decent amount of speed in here, so it’s doubtful he’ll be able to take this field wire-to-wire like he did last out in the Flat Out, but he’s 3 for 9 lifetime with 3 seconds and one third. One could include him in the mix on saver tickets.

($.50) Belmont All Graded Stakes Pick 4 Ticket ($36)
8th #2, #4, #9
9th #2, #3, #5, #7
10th #1, #2, #4, #5, #6, #7
11th #1

Take care of each other! Race On!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks and Soccer 7/4

Sat Jul 04, 2020 7:36 am
Happy 4th of July. Getting bored I guess so I'm finally jumping into soccer. Been following and looking at numbers for awhile now so hopefully I'll have a good feel. Here's two from Belmont also.

100* Over 2.5 Arsenal/Wolverham

Race 1
#8 Charlotte Webley $10 wps
$2 exacta box 8-2-1

Race 8
#9 Value Proposition $10 wps
$2 exacta box 9-5-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sat Jul 04, 2020 11:09 am

Ukraine - Premier League- Dinamo Kiev vs. Shakhtar Donetsk UNDER 2.5 +116 (12:30 PM)
Spain - La Liga- Real Valladolid CF vs. Alaves UNDER 2 -138 (1:30 PM)
Croatia - 1. HNL- Varazdin vs. Slaven Koprivnica UNDER 2.5 -106 (3:00 PM)
Spain - La Liga- Granada CF vs. Valencia OVER 2 -146 (4:00 PM)
Norway - Eliteserien- Valerenga -143 Aalesunds (2:30 PM)