Service Plays Sunday 7/5/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2020, 02:29 PM

Rocky Atkinson

Jul 05 '20, 4:05 PM in 1d
NASCAR | Martin Truex Jr vs Denny Hamlin
Play on: Denny Hamlin -150 at betonline

Rocky's FREE Nascar HEAD TO HEAD MATCHUP #19 Martin Truex Jr. vs #11 Denny Hamlin (4:05 PM EST)
Play On: #11 Denny Hamlin -150 Hamlin has no wins, 5 Top 5 finishes and 8 Top 10 finishes in his 14 races here in Indy. His average finish is 12.4 at this track. Hamlin has finished 3rd and 6th the past 2 years here for an average finish of 4.5 which is 2nd best among all active drivers. In his last 6 races on a flat super speedway, Hamlin has 2 wins and 6 Top 10 finishes with an average finish of 3.5. Hamlin is the hottest driver the past 3 races, with 1 win and 3 Top 10 finishes and an average finish of 2.3. Truex Jr. has no wins, 1 Top 5 finish and 3 Top 10 finishes in his 15 races at Indy. His average finish is 21.3 at this track. Truex Jr. finished 27th and 40th the past 2 years here at Indy. Looking to play against Martin Truex Jr. here. We'll recommend a small play on Denny Hamlin to finish ahead of Martin Truex Jr. today! Thanks and good luck,

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2020, 02:29 PM

Mike McClure

NASCAR

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 as one of his best bets at Bristol. The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure also used the model to lock in a bet for Hamlin at 10-1 for his win at Miami. And in both races at Pocono, two of the model's top three racers finished first and second.

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (4-1)
2. Joey Logano (12-1)
3. Denny Hamlin (4-1)
4. Kyle Busch (9-2)
5. Brad Keselowski (9-1)
6. Ryan Blaney (12-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr. (15-2)
8. Chase Elliott (15-1)
9. Kurt Busch (28-1)
10. Clint Bowyer (40-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11. William Byron
12. Erik Jones
13. Alex Bowman
14. Aric Almirola
15. Jimmie Johnson
16. Matt Kenseth
17. Matt DiBenedetto
18. Tyler Reddick
19. Christopher Bell
20. Ryan Newman
21. Austin Dillon
22. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
23. Chris Buescher
24. Bubba Wallace
25. Cole Custer
26. John Hunter Nemechek
27. Ryan Preece
28. Michael McDowell
29. Ty Dillon
30. Daniel Suarez
31. Timmy Hill
32. Brennan Poole
33. Quin Houff
34. JJ Yeley
35. Corey Lajoie
36. Joey Gase
37. Garrett Smithley

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2020, 02:30 PM

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

The NASCAR Cup Series returns to one of the country's most storied sporting venues on Sunday when the flag drops on the Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400 at Indianapolis Motor Speedway. The green flag drops at 4 p.m. ET. Former Vegas Bookmaker Micah Roberts, who was the first to offer expanded NASCAR betting, now hands out NASCAR winners to his followers on SportsLine.

Roberts is the nation's premier NASCAR betting expert, and his top pick won the first two races of the 2020 season. In the season-opening Daytona 500, he nailed Denny Hamlin's win at 10-1 odds, and he hit eventual winner Joey Logano at 13-2 odds in the Pennzoil 400 a week later. He also nailed Hamlin's victory in the Toyota 500 last month, even though he wasn't one of the top three favorites.

Roberts also crushed the 2019 NASCAR season. Those who wagered $100 on Roberts' predicted winner in each of the 40 NASCAR races last year (an investment of $4,000) finished with a strong profit of $2,100. In addition, those who put down $50 on each of Roberts' top four choices in each of those races (an investment of $8,000) were up a head-turning $3,400.

Here is Roberts' analysis:

The NASCAR Cup Series will be racing for the 27th time on the famed bricks of Indianapolis Motor Speedway in Sunday's Big Machine Hand Sanitizer 400. The bonus we all get this week is that the set-ups used on the cars in the two races last week at Pocono will be used at Indy. There's no practice or qualifying this week, but the two Pocono race results serve better than a practice for Indy.

Here's how I see things unfolding Sunday:

1) #11 Denny Hamlin (4-1) -- He's never won at the Brickyard, which is surprising because his best tracks have always been of the flat variety, such as the 2.5-mile Indy layout. The reason Hamlin gets the nod here is because of what he did last week at Pocono, finishing runner-up on Saturday and winning on Sunday. Those set-up notes are still fresh, and the only track that is similar to Pocono's 2.5-mile triangle layout is Indy with each track having the longest straights in the series. His four wins and nine top-fives this season lead the series. This is one of the races he's yet to check off his list of things to do.

2) #4 Kevin Harvick (7-2) -- Just like Hamlin, Harvick came away with a win and a runner-up over the weekend at Pocono. But he's been his best at the Brickyard with two wins, the last coming in 2019. He also leads all active drivers with an 8.9 average finish between 19 Brickyard starts.

3) #18 Kyle Busch (9-2) -- The defending Cup Series Champion still doesn't have a win after 15 races, and he sits third in points among drivers with no wins. He was fifth at Pocono on Saturday but wasn't ever considered a candidate to win. He grinded his way to a top-five, his seventh of the season. The top reason to believe in him this week is that he's won the Brickyard 400 twice and has led the most laps (324) among active drivers.

4) #10 Aric Almirola (30-1) -- He is a must-play this week in all betting strategies because you can see his team stepping up its game and giving him cars capable of winning. His first 11 starts included no top-fives. In his last four starts he's had four, the most important coming at Pocono where he was one of three drivers to finish in the top-five of both weekend races. He led a race-high 61 laps on Saturday before finishing third behind Harvick and Hamlin. Pocono and Indy use similar set-ups.

5) #2 Brad Keselowski (9-1) -- In last year's race he was involved in an early wreck and finished 38th, but before that, he had almost always found his way to the front and led laps. In 2018 he won the Brickyard 400, and in 2017 he was runner-up. He's been sitting on two wins since winning the Coca-Cola 600 on May 24.

6) #14 Clint Bowyer (40-1) -- He's part of the Stewart-Haas Racing team that produced fast cars for Harvick and Almirola. He was eighth or better in the two Pocono races last weekend. He was fifth in each of the last two Brickyard races.

7) #24 William Byron (35-1) -- There were no signs last weekend that Chevrolet had anything for Harvick or Hamlin, and that may be the case again, but this is a good track for him. He was fourth last season and seventh at Pocono last week. He also won a 2017 Xfinity Series race at the Brickyard.

8) #22 Joey Logano (12-1) -- He has the second-best average finish at Indy (10.9) among active drivers, and that includes two runner-up finishes (2015, 2019). The concern with him has to do with the lack of speed using this week's race package with engines producing 550 horsepower. He doesn't have a top-five in nine of his last 10 starts using the package. His two wins this season came before the pandemic shutdown.

9) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (17-2) -- He's had a lot of poor luck at Indy, particularly the last three seasons with finishes of 27th or worse in what have been his prime years everywhere else. He has only one top-five in 15 starts and a 21st-place average finish at Indy. But what's most concerning is his team's current form: He has one top-five in 10 races using this week's race package.

10) #12 Ryan Blaney (12-1) -- He's had seven top-fives and a win this season but didn't run well at Pocono, which is a huge indicator as to how drivers will run at Indy. He had his best career effort at Indy last year with a seventh-place finish in his fifth start there.

11) #9 Chase Elliott (15-1) -- Indy has been one of his worst tracks, with a 19th-place average finish, but he did score a career-best ninth-place last season. The good news is he's been very good with this week's race package and finished fourth with it at Pocono on Sunday.

12) #48 Jimmie Johnson (50-1) -- He's the active leader with four Brickyard 400 wins, and this is likely to be his last race on the famed track. His last win came in 2012, and his last top-five came in 2016. He has only one top-five using this week's race package, and it came at Las Vegas; nine races have passed since then. It's part of the reason his odds have risen.

13) #20 Erik Jones (22-1) -- He's good at Indy just because he's one of the best at Pocono, where he finished third on Sunday. He's been involved in accidents in two of his three Indy starts but was runner-up in 2018. He's a good longshot play just because of having a fast Joe Gibbs Racing car.

14) #88 Alex Bowman (30-1) -- The power he showed during a Fontana win and a runner-up at Darlington has been non-existent. He has had no top-fives using this race package since Darlington. The drought began about the same time he got a contract extension. He went from single-digit odds to a 30-1 longshot.

15) #1 Kurt Busch (30-1) -- This hasn't been his best track over his career. As a rookie in 2001, he finished fifth, and that remains his only top-five after 18 other starts. One of the defining moments of his career came in 2002 when, after being wrecked by Jimmy Spencer, Busch got out of his car, waited for Spencer to come around and motioned wildly. That started his string of poor luck at the Brickyard.

16) #3 Austin Dillon (125-1) -- He's sitting 17th in points, one spot away from the final playoff position. He's been consistent this season and also at Indy, where he ran 12th last year and has two other top-10 finishes.

17) #42 Matt Kenseth (125-1) -- He's had lots of success at Indy over the years but has never won there. Still, three runner-ups and nine top-fives between 19 starts are impressive. But he's had only one top-10 this season since taking over for Kyle Larson.

18) #41 Cole Custer (300-1) -- The rookie gets a strong look only because his three Stewart-Haas Racing teammates had great cars at Pocono last week, all finishing eighth or better between the two races.

19) #8 Tyler Reddick (100-1) -- It's hard to dismiss all the speed he had at Homestead three weeks ago when he was running in the top-five most of the race and finished fourth. Keep in mind that Richard Childress Racing gave Paul Menard his only career Cup win at the Brickyard.

20) #6 Ryan Newman (100-1) -- The Indiana native captured the 2013 Brickyard 400 win from the pole for Stewart-Haas Racing. He was third in 2017 and eighth last season in his first year driving for Roush Fenway Racing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-04-2020, 09:26 PM

NATIONAL SPORTS ADVISORS THE LEGEND!
FREE HORSE PICKS
ELLIS PARK
RACE #5
POST TIME: 3:42 PM EST
PICK: #5 Strolling(9/5 Odds) to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 06:59 AM

Jeff Siegel's Day Makers - 7/05/20

July 5, 2020
JEFF SIEGEL’S NATIONAL DAY MAKERS FOR SUNDAY, JULY 5, 2020
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Jeff Siegel’s prime plays from around the country are offered on a daily basis to members of xpressbet.com and 1stbet.com. Always the day’s the cream of the crop, Day Makers emphasize price and wagering value and each selection should be given strong consideration both as a straight wager and as a key in vertical and horizontal exotics.
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GULFSTREAM PARK – 9th RACE. POST TIME: 4:00 ET
6 – PRINCESS SECRET (9/2)

Tackles the boys in this first-level allowance sprint but should be too quick for this group and clearly is doing well since her debut romp in early May, having just breezed five furlongs in :58 4/5 at over the deeper Gulfstream Park West main track. The daughter of Khozan is comfortably drawn outside so she can stalk and pounce if the situation dictates, but we’re thinking that she won’t be waiting around for anybody. At 9/2 on the morning line she’ll offer considerable value both in the win pool and especially in the rolling exotics.

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BELMONT PARK – 7th RACE. POST TIME: 4:32 ET
6 – STONE TORNADO (2-1)

Was extremely well-meant in her U. S. debut in a similar second-level allowance turf affair last month but was caught very wide without cover every step of the way and paid the price close home when worn down to wind up third beaten a half-length in a fast, highly-rated affair. The lightly-raced import shows two easy breezes since that race, retains I. Ortiz, and was a listed stakes winner in France at this distance last summer, so if she can settle in behind leaders and find room to rally when called upon the C. Brown-trained filly should be along in time. We’ll embrace her morning line of 2-1 in the straight pool and in rolling exotic play if we can get it.

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BELMONT PARK – 8th RACE. POST TIME: 5:04 ET
8 -TALE OF THE UNION (2-1)

This lightly-raced but talented son of Union Rags is trying to make amends (again) after twice failing as the favorite in his first two outings since returning off a long layoff. He really should have no excuses. Two runs back he was simply dead short in his first outing in 21 months and then in his most recent start he stood in the gate and lost all chance at the break. Today, he’s drawn comfortably outside in a sprint with a modest amount of early speed, so the B. Baffert-trained hopefully will load last, break first, and then settle into an ideal stalking or pressing position before kicking on with it when called upon. A recent half mile bullet breeze (:46 3/5, fastest of 43) should have him on edge, so at 2-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.

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BELMONT PARK – 9TH RACE. POST TIME: 5:36 ET
2 – DELAWARE (GB) (5-1)

French graded stakes winner was below his best form in his U.S. debut last month, getting shuffled back early in heavy traffic and then failing to produce his typical late kick when eighth beaten five lengths vs. listed stakes foes over this course and distance. Today, the son of Frankel adds Lasix and blinkers for the first time and switches to I. Ortiz while dropping into the conditioned allowance ranks, so we’re expecting the English-bred colt to deliver his best stuff. If he leaves cleanly from his inside draw the C. Brown-trained colt should be prominent throughout and have dead aim at the head of the lane. At 5-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic key.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:01 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 5, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Hawthorne Racecourse has 13-races ready to roll with the 0.50 Late Pick 4 set to begin in Race 10. The sequence has a $25,000 guaranteed pool with a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

The driver with the hottest hands on Saturday was Casey Leonard with five trips to the winner's circle. The top conditioner on the card was Derek Burklund with two wins.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

2-Spicy Lil Hope (2-1)-Program chalk has hit the board in 3 of 10 starts all of which were at Haw. Barn still isn't rolling but has enough ability to beat this crew. Husted needs to be close to the lead turning for the wire.
6-Dancin Eyes (7/2)-Last outing was the best at Haw this year and if upswing continues it could be time for a picture.
9-Pootie Cat (5/2)-Could finally graduate, Oosting needs to work the right trip but has been facing stiffer competition. This will be the 9th race at Haw and has placed once and finished 3rd five times.

Race 11

3-Hello Art (9/2)-Made a trip to the winner's circle on 6/13 at 52-1 and hasn't started since. Offers some value at the ML odds if ready to roll. Has hit the board in 5 of 7 starts in Stickney.
5-Crookshanks (15-1)-Looking for a price. From this post Wilfong can hang around and look to use one move down the lane to surprise.
6-Dirt E Rock (3-1)-Program favorite has won 4 of 6 starts all at Haw. Has been facing better, Warren may look to get on the engine and not look back.
7-Bright Boy (7-1)-Only 1-16 lifetime but is another who can be forwardly placed and take advantage of a ground saving trip. Has been closing well and if Smolin can provide a smooth journey, there is a chance to beat this field.

Race 12

5-Fancy Creek Jolene (5-1)-Only 1-32 but now drops a couple of levels. Barn is still cold, but this mare has won 8 of 45 starts at Haw. This is not a deep group and it could be the spot to capture a long overdue win.
7-Queens And Tens (4-1)-Makes 3rd start off the bench and faced better here and at HoP on 6/18. Makes 3rd start since the break and will use instead of the ML chalk #1, who is 0-6 at Haw.

Race 13

3-Lilly Von Shtupp (7/2)-Was bet down to 4/5 in last and raced well but not as good the winner who stopped the clock in 152.0. Lilly should get a great trip and might be able to cash the top check tonight.
5-Rollin Coal (5-1)-This 5-year-old has speed but is basically a one-move horse. Gets post relief and from this starting spot Franco should be able to provide a better steer and not empty the tank too soon.
9-Boogie On Down (4-1)-Drops out of Open company and should have her way with this field with a top effort. But there have not been any top efforts since the restart. Wilfong is back and will respect connections.

0.50 Late Pick 4

2,6,9/3,5,6,7/5,7/3,5,9
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:02 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #6

#1 Mister Bobby	Stalker was running well at the level without winning this winter, comes back in a race loaded with speed, and goes for a Bond barn that usually starts rolling at this time of year; look out.
#7 Coach Villa	Pace presser drew well for his style and will get first run on the pick too, and that N3L win last time was sharp, though where it came from is another question altogether; second-best.
#2 Frevola	Brown speedster laughed at a 50k MCL field last time but now steps way up, catches a group that will nag him the entire way, and will be way overbet as well; making him prove it on top.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's a ton of it here, and that will really aid the chances of the 1, so play him to win and place, and to kick off the late Pk5 as well, since he's getting all the best of it here, and yet could be the third-choice in the betting.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#2 Big Thicket	Class riser aired off the Rodriguez claim last time and meets a modest field on the rise, and if he runs back to that last, he's going to bury this meek group; love his chances here.
#1 Giant Shoes	Price player has only run once on a fast track and it was a solid 3rd, goes turf-to-dirt and second-off the break, and will be a very square number as well; thinking he fires a biggies.
#7 Quickflash	Logical contender caught slop last time and was a clear 2nd to a runaway winner, now adds blinkers for a bit more focus, but will probably be a bit overbet as well; underneath only.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 2 but if he runs back to his win off the claim last time he's beating this group, and that makes $7 in the win end not too bad at all, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since this is the perfect type of field to face on the rise.

Belmont Park - Race #10

#8 Striking Causeway	Pace presser drew perfectly to be outside, really woke up on turf the last time, should only improve off that tightener, and doesn't meet much; look out.
#5 Spiritual King	Speedster now faces NYB's for Sacco off a pair of GP turf routes for Pletcher, no runs as a first-time gelding too, and might need to be caught; big chance.
#6 More Like It	Logical sort was a close 6th on the turf last time off the break, and is another who should improve, though he'll have to to get there first; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	Taking $9 on the pick would seem mighty fair off his last, and with his upside as well, so make an aggressive win and place bet, while getting value by keying him to end the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he looks poised to build off that run, which means he'd be throwing down a race the rest of these simply won't be able to handle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Ellis Park - Race #5

#1 Petrov	Worth a little look with these from the inside as he's quick enough to get in the mix from the fence in the early going. His form is spotty, but his best stuff fits here.
#3 Horse Doctor	No knocks on the recent form, and it was good to see that he backed up the Oaklawn upset with another good run last time out. He should be able to get another good go of things from close range.
#4 Hard Belle	Has some forward ability in a race without a ton of serious early burn, and but he'll need to hold his form off the claim. Figure he tires late and lands underneath.
Race Summary	Petrov has a little bit of early speed at times, and using that would serve him well in this spot while breaking from the inside. His best races would be good enough to win this at a square price.

Ellis Park - Race #6

#2 Cuzzywuzzy	Eddie Kenneally's barn has done really good work with two-turn turf maidens here over the last few years, and this filly brings what appears to be a pretty forward worktab with her to this debut run.
#6 Beautiful Star	Impossible to count this one out as she'll debut out of the Brad Cox barn, and they have also been a dominant force in races like this over the last several years.
#3 Couger	Has an experience edge on most of these and has a pedigree that suggests she might appreciate the move around two turns for this second trip to post.
Race Summary	Cuzzywuzzy debuts for a team that has done really good work with maidens like this over the years, and the hope is that Beautiful Star takes more cash than she deserves to based on the Cox/Geroux connections.

Ellis Park - Race #8

#10 Complicit	Woke up last out when getting back to the grass, and something like that effort might be enough to keep her in the picture here at another big price.
#9 Mitchell Road	Should be able to handle this kind of company, but she might not be quite as good as she was at times last year. The clear one to beat with another good trip looming near the top.
#5 Our Bay B Ruth	Reliable finisher looks logical here having won four of the last five, and she is just quick enough to find the right spot behind the pace today.
Race Summary	Complicit needs every bit of a repeat of that last one, and maybe then some, but she'll be the right kind of price to take a swing against this group.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:03 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #4

#2 Frenchmen Street	Showed signs of finishing last out and stretches out to 7.5 furlongs; won three in a row not long ago and is rounding back into form.
#3 Harbour Master	Rallied off a slow pace last time and should get more help from pacesetters this time; late threat.
#4 Lahinch	Regained good form last time as he won off the pace going 5 furlongs; likely to be on or near the front end and can be a player all the way.
Race Summary	Frenchmen Street got a wake-up call last time, improved, and now gets more distance; looking at a top effort here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#7 Glory Roll	Has good speed and can clear from the outside; has been in good races and can dig in with these.
#1 Fiber Optic	Has won three of her last four, has been claiming in his last three and runs for the Sancal stable; close from the start.
#4 Solarte	Tired last time but has been in the mix in all of his races; can hang on for a piece of it.
Race Summary	Glory Roll does well when she gets the lead and has good chance of it here; was caught right at the wire and can stay this time.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 Isla Road	Lost a three-horse photo on turf last time and wins if she improves slightly off that one; has been competitive in stakes at GP.
#8 Crown and Sugar	Set the pace and was caught late in a stakes race last time; takes on open company and can be a player all the way there.
#2 Midnight Soiree	Ran evenly behind slow fractions last out and likely will get a better trip in this one; can make a late run.
Race Summary	Isla Road just missed in his 1st in three months and is perfectly placed; can get the stakes victory this time around.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:34 AM

Steve Janus

Jul 05 '20, 12:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Mjondalen IF vs Molde
Play on: Molde -120 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on Molde -120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 07:34 AM

Hunter Price

Jul 05 '20, 2:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Caykur Rizespor vs Konyaspor
Play on: Konyaspor +120 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Pick on Konyaspor +120

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 08:50 AM

Mike McClure

NASCAR

Joey Logano +1200
Clint Bowyer +4000

Joey Logano +110 vs. Brad Keselowski
Martin Truex +150 vs. Kyle Busch

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (4-1)
2. Joey Logano (12-1)
3. Denny Hamlin (4-1)
4. Kyle Busch (9-2)
5. Brad Keselowski (9-1)
6. Ryan Blaney (12-1)
7. Martin Truex Jr. (15-2)
8. Chase Elliott (15-1)
9. Kurt Busch (28-1)
10. Clint Bowyer (40-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 William Byron
12 Erik Jones
13 Alex Bowman
14 Aric Almirola
15 Matt Kenseth
16 Matt DiBenedetto
17 Justin Allgaier
18 Tyler Reddick
19 Christopher Bell
20 Ryan Newman
21 Austin Dillon
22 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
23 Chris Buescher
24 Bubba Wallace
25 Cole Custer
26 Ross Chastain
27 John H. Nemechek
28 Ty Dillon
29 Michael McDowell
30 Daniel Suarez
31 Ryan Preece
32 Corey Lajoie
33 Timmy Hill
34 BJ McLeod
35 JJ Yeley
36 Brennan Poole
37 Quin Houff
38 Garrett Smithley
39 Josh Bilicki
40 Joey Gase

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 08:50 AM

Bob Weir

HORSE RACING

On June 13 Weir hit a $2 superfecta in the Ogden Phipps Stakes that paid a whopping $1,039. And he hit the late Pick 4 at Belmont Park on June 18, 19, 25 and July 2 with the June 25 score returning a whopping $2,159.50. Those are just some of his hits this year.

Belmont Park Race 7 (4:32 p.m. ET)
6 Stone Tornado (2-1) looked like a potential winner midway through the stretch in her last start. She maybe moved a little early into a fast pace and was caught, but she should improve out of that race. A more relaxed ride at a mile can take this.

7 Madeleine Must (8-1) comes out of Stone Tornado's race and definitely appeared to need that race off the layoff. She stayed close to the pace inside Stone Tornado and then was flat in stretch, but she didn't completely cave in. Like the top pick, she should improve and has a chance to upset at an improved price.

In her last race, 5 Madita (5-2) was clear on easy lead, and I loved the performance. There's a chance she may get a similar trip depending on the tactics of others. If they let her roll early, she can repeat.

8 She's Got You (4-1) makes her first start in the U.S. for trainer Chad Brown. She did race credibly at Newmarket and Ascot for John Gosden and appears to have talent. She could be ready off the bench.

9 Chaleur (7-2) lost as the favorite in her U.S. debut at Churchill Downs. The winner was 74-1, which is a red flag for me. That run was at nine furlongs off the layoff, and the turnback to one mile could work. I don't love her, but I must include her at the "B" level.

A: 5,6,7
B: 8,9

Belmont Park Race 8 (5:04 p.m. ET)
8 Tale of the Union (2-1) lost all chance at the start in his last race. He still put in a run three-wide on the turn in the slop before tiring down the stretch and finishing a distant third. He has continued to train well since that race and makes his third start back after a long layoff. The one to beat.

7 Quickflash (3-1) was able to get the better of Tale of the Union in his last race and adds blinkers today. If I'm being too forgiving of Tale of the Union's last race, Quickflash is a logical player.

6 Kid d'Oro (12-1) tried a 1 1/16-mile race in his last start, his first for trainer Kelly Breen after leaving the barn of Jason Servis. He predictably tired in that race but should be tighter on Sunday. Upset chance.

2 Big Thicket (5-2) ran well in his last start and won, surviving an inquiry that could have gone the other way. He was best that day and could fit at this level after improving off the claim for trainer Rudy Rodriguez.

A: 8
B: 2,6,7

Belmont Park Race 9 (5:36 p.m. ET)
This is a good seven-furlong allowance race with two of the top contenders exiting the June 7 First Defence stakes at Belmont. I will give Chad Brown's 2 Delaware (5-1) another shot. He had a middling run in his U.S. debut, never looking particularly comfortable. He switches to jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. and can improve for Brown making his second start off the layoff.

6 Majestic Dunhill (4-1) finished a close second in the First Defence race. A repeat of that effort puts him right there.

7 Front Run the Fed (3-1) is the second in here for Chad Brown and returns off a disappointing fourth as the favorite in his Churchill Downs return. The last time he ran this distance at Belmont, he had a career-high Beyer Speed Figure (99) and won by 13. Obvious player.

I will give 5 Vici (15-1) an outside chance. In the First Defence he set a fast pace and was caught late. He's the clear speed again and could be tighter in his second start back.

A: 2,6,7
B: 5

Belmont Park Race 10 (6:08 p.m. ET)
The sequence ends with a wide-open six-furlong sprint on the turf for New York breds. I'll spread a little. 6 More Like It (6-1) ran pretty well in his last start at this level. He encountered a little trouble but tried hard to the end. He can improve.

In his debut race as a 2-year-old, 7 Sanctuary City (9-2) earned a Beyer Speed Figure that's the best in this field. In his second start he tried to stretch out but ran evenly without making a real bid. He looks best on paper, but I'm concerned with the barn change to trainer James Ferraro. The return to a sprint distance makes sense, and he may just be better than these, but there are some things to keep me from making him a single.

8 Striking Causeway (7-2) showed big speed in his first turf attempt, finishing third in the More Like It race. This 4-year-old could be the speed of the speed. Wire-to-wire chance.

On the B line, I will use four more: 2 Boom Boom Kaboom (12-1) may have needed the last race, and he can improve in his second start back for trainer George Weaver (who wins at 29 percent with runners making their second start after a 45- to 180-day layoff)... The turf sprints 4 Smite (12-1) ran as a 2-year-old were not bad. Any natural maturity as a 3-year-old could close the gap here... 5 Spiritual King (4-1) turns back after showing speed and stopping at longer. Moving horses up off Todd Pletcher is difficult, but he fits moving back into state-bred races... Trainer Horacio Depaz is 3-for-6 at the meet and is winning at 26 percent on the year. His stable is not big, but everything is running right now. 1 Silver Token (6-1) has a chance off the layoff and trainer change.

A: 6,7,8
B: 1,2,4,5

Wagers
Preferred-A ticket
$2 Pick 4: 6,7 with 8 with 2 with 6,7,8 ($12)

All-A ticket
$1 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($27)

Three-A, one-B tickets
$0.50 Pick 4: 8,9 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($9)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 2,6,7 with 2,6,7, with 6,7,8 ($40.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 5 with 6,7,8 ($4.50)
$0.50 Pick 4: 5,6,7 with 8 with 2,6,7, with 1,2,4,5 ($18)

Total: $111

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 08:58 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belmont Park

Belmont Park - Race 9	Exacta, Trifecta (.50), Super (.10), Double Wagers
Optional Claiming $80,000 • 7 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 4 and up • CR: 110 • Purse: $70,000 • Post: 5:36P
(RAIL AT 9 FEET). (UP TO $12,180 NYSBFOA) FOR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $10,000 THREE TIMES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE BRED ALLOWANCE OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES OR WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2019-2020 OR CLAIMING PRICE $80,000. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $60,000 ALLOWED 2 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER IN 2020 ALLOWED 4 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE IN 2020 ALLOWED 6 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $80,000 (ALLOWANCE HORSES PREFERRED)(1.5% AFTERCARE ASSESSMENT DUE AT TIME OF CLAIM OTHERWISE CLAIM WILL BE VOID). (IF THE STEWARDS CONSIDER IT INADVISABLE TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, THIS RACE WILL BE RUN AT SEVEN FURLONGS ON THE MAIN TRACK.)

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Stalker. TELEKINESIS is the Dominant Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MAJESTIC DUNHILL: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. TELEKINESIS: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route) /surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. MAI TY ONE ON: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. DELAWARE (GB): Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. CHEWING GUM: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	MAJESTIC DUNHILL	4/1	5/1
3	TELEKINESIS	8/1	5/1
9	MAI TY ONE ON	15/1	8/1
2	DELAWARE (GB)	5/1	10/1
10	CHEWING GUM	7/2	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ITS ALL RELEVANT	1	5/2	Front-runner	106	108	89.1	97.6	83.1
3	TELEKINESIS	3	8/1	Stalker	103	105	137.5	104.3	92.3
6	MAJESTIC DUNHILL	6	4/1	Stalker	109	108	81.5	104.3	98.3
9	MAI TY ONE ON	9	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	108	103	98.8	100.8	92.3
2	DELAWARE (GB)	2	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	102	103	58.8	95.7	83.7
4	PENALTY	4	10/1	Alternator/Stalker	107	108	0.0	0.0	0.0
7	FRONT RUN THE FED	7	3/1	Trailer	108	106	87.9	88.4	75.4
10	CHEWING GUM	10	7/2	Trailer	107	107	76.3	101.3	94.8
11	PULSATE	11	10/1	Trailer	103	101	75.5	96.7	77.7
8	ISOTHERM	8	30/1	Trailer	118	94	35.1	79.6	65.1
5	VICI	5	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	110	92	89.6	98.6	86.6