Service Plays Monday 7/6/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-05-2020, 10:06 PM

Jesse Schule
Jul 06 '20, 2:30 PM in 1d
Soccer | SV Werder Bremen vs Heidenheimer SB
Play on: OVER 2½ +121

This is a free play on Over 2.5.

After Bremen and Heidenheimer played a scoreless draw in the first leg of this relegation/promotion playoff, perhaps we see a bit of recency bias at play in the second leg. The total is taking back plus money betting the over 2.5, which seems like a bargain in a match that could be decided on away goals. While neither team scored in the fist leg, the previous two head to head meetings saw a combined eight goals. Bremen scored six goals the last time they were faced with a must win game, and I very much doubt they will be held off the score sheet in this match.

GL,

Jesse Schule

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 05:25 AM

Steve Janus

Jul 06 '20, 1:30 PM in 7h
Soccer | Real Sociedad vs Levante
Play on: Real Sociedad +183 at betonline

1* Free Sharp Play on Real Sociedad +183

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 05:25 AM

Al Cimaglia: Northfield Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

July 6, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Northfield Park starts the week with a 15-race card and the Early Pick 4 begins in Race 7. The sequence has a $10,000 guaranteed pool and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 7

3-Rock N Jo Z (2-1)-Drops to a good level and draws well. Looks like a major player and should have a good chance of taking 1st picture in 10 starts this year.
4-Norm At Work (5/2)-Steps-up after an easy score on 6/28. Has beaten better here and has 16 wins in 75 starts at Nfld. Page may blast out and has the gate speed to get a good seat.

Race 8

5-CC Bank (7/2)-Using Stga invader rather than #1 the ML chalk who is coming off a break. Has a win, a 2nd, and a 3rd place finish at Nfld in 6 outings and should be forwardly placed. Not much gate speed in here and R. Wrenn has options.
7-Global Ice (4-1)-0-32 isn't inspiring but rallied on 6/28 in lone Nfld start versus better and should like the company. It could be time for an aggressive try in 3rd start of 2020 and 3rd start for new barn.
9-Master Mighty (4-1)-The post draw doesn't help but 9-year-old drops to a soft spot. Grismore needs to provide a good steer and maybe some luck but is worth a swing. Likes the track and leads the field in money earned in 2019.

Race 9

1-Odds On Athens (7/2)-Likes to race on the lead and can get there. Wrenn returns and he knows well, this duo won here on 6/10. Should be a major threat if minds manners.
3-Escape The House (7/2)-Does race the fair circuit but also has won at Nfld in 153.2 last year. Merriman takes the lines and he has notched a win with this filly. May leave and get a pocket trip behind #1 but could win off cover as well.

Race 10

4-Locamotion Fred (5-1)-Fred has not gotten off to good start after the return to action but best to respect here. Should like the company and 5-year-old has the gate speed to get a good seat. Merriman steers in 1st start at Nfld since 3/3.
6-American Trademark (8/5)-Program chalk makes Nfld debut. Wrenn will likely blast out and look to stay in control.
7-Andale Andale (4-1)-Returns to Nfld looking for 3rd win in 7 starts and regular pilot is back in the bike. If pace is quick chances go up. This is an honest horse so best to respect.

$1 Early Pick 4

3,4/5,7,9/1,3/4,6,7
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 05:56 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #4

#3 Going Running Too	MSW dropper got her prep out of the way off the break last time, takes the steepest plunge in racing, and should offer fair value in a weak field too; upset special.
#4 Baby Gordita	Class riser goes off the Villafranco claim after failing at odds-on last time, but she hits hard on paper, has upside off just two starts, and drew well; major player.
#2 Facing North	Dicey ML favorite is another MSW dropper, and she has speed too, but she was awful in her return last time, and yet will be overbet again; making her prove it.
Race Summary	That 8-1 ML on the pick sure seems fair, especially in light with what she meets here, so play her in all the slots, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since a win would add plenty of value right off the bat.

Canterbury Park - Race #5

#1 Sarjenalli	Firster has a slew of works, highlighted by the 6/10 bullet, lures Quinonez, one of the best local jocks, and meets a field there for the taking; thinking she's live.
#3 Causin Mischief	The gal to beat has the best form of the proven runners and won't have to run much better than her last to win, and could improve off that return too; will be tough.
#7 Undecidedcertainty	OP invader faced eons better in her debut, and while she didn't do any running, that should have her set up here, though she'll need to improve; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 1, as you'd like to see her live and taking money, and if that's the case you can play her in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she appears to be wells spotted, and she won't need to freak on debut to have a chance against this crew.

Canterbury Park - Race #7

#1 First to the Wire	Stretch runner drew well after finishing behind a few of these off a troubled trip, should have an honest pace to close into, and will be a price too; mows them down late.
#5 Water Patrol	The chalk just aired for 15k and now drops in half, so a repeat clearly wins this, but there are some mixed signals here off such a dominant win; making her prove it on top.
#7 Classy Individual	Dangerous sort just beat the pick last time and will get first run here, and a repeat makes her tough, though there's no value here and the post isn't ideal; looms in the mix.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 1, and he should have a better trip here, and, aside from the 5, who is giving off some bad vibes, this is a crew that his best will stack up with, so play him in all the slots, and especially the 10% takeout Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, as he's likely to be overlooked, which means a win would go a long win to blowing up both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 05:57 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#6 Twentytwentyvision	Forward player has been in with much better than this throughout his career, and if he's able to come back at all like he was running last year, this is a winnable spot.
#1 Loyalty Spirit	Reliable finishing type didn't have enough late last time out, but he's going second off the break while getting some class relief. Tough to split the top pair.
#8 Pence	Couldn't stay late last out, but he has been a good fit when in with this kind of cheaper company, and he should be able to find a decent spot spying the pace.
Race Summary	Twentytwentyvision can get a good run of things near the top, and as long as he hasn't taken a big step back into his 9yo season, he is very much in the mix with these.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#9 Black Circle	Finished full of run to score last time out, and that reliable late kick makes him a danger right back in a spot where a fair pace may develop. Remarkable 12yo still firing.
#7 Dragunov	Willing to give him a pass for most of that recent form, as he's much better on the grass than he is on the dirt. Chance to wake up in a hurry today, and I'll try to get him in the Exacta with the top choice.
#5 Pleasant Outlook	Looks best of the pace and may be able to stick around for an underneath share here. Might have a tough time threatening seriously for the win.
Race Summary	Black Circle fired a big one off the layoff in his first start as a 12yo, and his consistent running lines make him the one to beat. Naysayers could point to the fact that his only bad race last year came in a similar two-off-the-bench race after a solid comeback.

Mountaineer - Race #4

#7 Allaboutbiz	Forward player adds blinkers after showing pace and fading in both career starts, but the equipment change might be enough to get him over the top. Very playable at something like the 9/2 ML offering.
#5 U S S Costly	That debut run was really sharp, but he took a huge step back when fading badly last out. The one to beat, but no clue which guy is going to show up, and the price will probably be on the short side.
#8 Apple Empire	Has had eight chances with little success, but she has been in with better groups on tougher circuits and a wake-up performance wouldn't be a total surprise.
Race Summary	Allaboutbiz can be in the mix early with likely chalk U S S Costly, and 'biz has more upside with the blinkers going on tonight.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 05:58 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#6 Strong Illusion	Was sharp in her debut as she opened up a clear lead and was caught late; Johnson barn has been hot lately and this one should improve in her 2nd start.
#2 Rushing Time	Was on the board in 2 of 4 last year and Garcia barn is hitting 29 percent; ready for her 1st of the year.
#3 Angry Bee	Closed to 3rd in a stakes race in her 1st of the season and gets back to maidens; can be a big player vs. the state-breds.
Race Summary	Strong Illusion came up empty in the closing strides of her 1st one and likely will have more endurance here.

Indiana Grand - Race #3

#1 Wild About You	Won when she was claimed from Johnson and he took her back at Churchill last time out; he drops back to 6 furlongs and can make a run here. He's 5 of 16 over the strip and can be tough in his return.
#2 Barry Lee	Showed speed and gave way in his last two at Churchill; he drops down in class and can be tough to catch here.
#5 Statesboro	Has an adjustable running style and should be able to be close up vs. these; a victory would not be a surprise.
Race Summary	Wild About You tried long route races at Oaklawn and is back to where he's done the best; the 10-year-old can make a solid late run over this strip.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#1 Augie	Ran very well in 2 of 3 at Oaklawn and should be a big player as he moves over to the turf; could be overlooked in the wagering.
#8 Fig Jelly	Was 2nd in the Silks Run at Gulfstream, losing by a neck; he was trained by Jason Servis until two races back and is set to make his 3rd for Cox.
#5 Land Battle	Moves over to the turf, where he was 2nd here last year; has been in with solid company and has enough speed to be dangerous.
Race Summary	Augie has decent speed, a good post and has taken on some quality competition this year; can be close throughout and should be able to finish well.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:05 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 7	W/P/S / Exacta / Quinella / 1st Half Late Daily Double / Trifecta .10 Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 78 • Purse: $13,500 • Post: 3:30P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD NON WINNERS IN 2020 OR NON WINNERS OF FOUR RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. LADYSGOTITALL is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * LADYSGOTITALL: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/ surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
7	LADYSGOTITALL	10/1	2/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	LADYSGOTITALL	7	10/1	Front-runner	86	86	74.6	76.0	71.0
2	LIGHTNING LADY	2	9/2	Stalker	78	76	49.6	71.0	61.5
3	BONITA ANNIE	3	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	87	70	67.0	72.0	67.5
1	D'TATWAY	1	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	76	78	49.0	66.8	60.8
6	GIVE EM FITZ	6	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	80	78	40.4	67.4	57.4
5	ATHENA THE GODDESS	5	8/1	Alternator/Trailer	81	86	24.6	62.2	55.2
4	FIANNA HILLS	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	65	63	62.8	53.4	40.9

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:06 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Hastings

Hastings - Race 6	Late Double / Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3-4 • CR: 85 • Purse: $14,000 • Post: 3:45P
FOR THREE AND FOUR YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR BRITISH COLUMBIA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; FOUR YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 6 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 6 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Fast-paced Race. There are many horses that could vie for the early lead. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners. * KEY ANGLES * ERLICH: Horse is highest ranked on Good Speed and Good Class. Horse is dropping into a race which has an Class Rating at least five points lower than the Class Rating of its last race. Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. BAKTURA: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation.
3	ERLICH	6/1	3/1
9	BAKTURA	3/1	5/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	BAKTURA	9	3/1	Front-runner	74	71	83.1	65.8	62.8
3	ERLICH	3	6/1	Front-runner	89	91	80.6	68.3	65.8
8	GOTTCHA COWBOY	8	12/1	Front-runner	67	67	75.4	60.0	50.5
4	WILSON	4	15/1	Front-runner	68	69	65.2	51.0	39.0
7	SLEW'S BAK	7	8/1	Front-runner	66	69	62.6	65.4	57.4
6	CAPILANO CANYON	6	5/2	Stalker	74	73	67.9	65.3	59.8
5	TORINO GRAND	5	12/1	Stalker	62	70	67.6	55.3	44.3
2	YO ZACKLY	2	10/1	Stalker	64	56	55.7	53.3	40.8
1	SYNERGY	1	5/1	Trailer	74	66	36.3	64.3	56.8

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:07 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Claiming - 5.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5900 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE JULY 6, 2019. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 BRIANA JEAN 2/1
# 6 PORTRAY UR VISION 7/2
# 7 CLEM JUICE 6/1

I have to consider BRIANA JEAN here. She ought to be considered given the very good speed figs. Has ran strongly in dirt sprint races. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 55 - of her last contest. PORTRAY UR VISION - Should best this group here, showing respectable figures of late. Could wake up with Lasix change (with second time Lasix) today. CLEM JUICE - Has a sharp record at the distance and surface, which makes me have to support this mare. Guidos makes a blinkers change (going on today), looking for positive results.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:07 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #7 - Post: 4:15pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#11 DRIVEN BY THUNDER (ML=8/1)
#7 BELTWAY BOB (ML=12/1)
#8 ROCK SOLID GOLFER (ML=6/1)

DRIVEN BY THUNDER - If you review the PP's for this horse, you'll see he has recorded the top speed figure at the distance and surface. A repeat race right here and this horse has a superb chance to win. (EPS) earnings per start is something that I feel can be a very key handicapping aspect. This thoroughbred is ranked number one in this group. This horse has the class to win the race. A tactical ride by Medina, and this one could bound home the winner. BELTWAY BOB - The Jun 12th race at Laurel was at a class level of (93). Dropping down the ladder based on class rating points drastically, so he should be in a good spot to win. ROCK SOLID GOLFER - Trainer Luqueno moves this one down the ladder based on class rating points to face a lower class field. Look for a sharp effort at this level. Coming off a fourth place finish at Delaware Park, some may skip this horse. I'm not. He just missed hitting the show spot, and has pretty decent odds today. Had a powerful closing move in the last race, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 NILEATOR (ML=3/1), #10 DASHING LOU (ML=7/2), #4 FINE SPIRIT (ML=9/2),

NILEATOR - You always think this horse has a shot to be victorious, but he just misses regularly. DASHING LOU - The finish position of seventh in the last event shows me that this horse may be tailing off. FINE SPIRIT - Registered a quite unimpressive speed fig last time out in a $16,000 Claiming race on May 15th. Not likely to see an improved performance off of that rating.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#11 DRIVEN BY THUNDER is the play if we get odds of 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	11 with [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8,11] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[7,8,11] with [7,8,11] with [4,7,8,10,11] with [4,7,8,10,11] Total Cost: $36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:08 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 5 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $5500 Class Rating: 66

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 FOREIGN CREATION 8/5
# 3 BLING SPRINGSTEEN 9/5
# 4 TOCDIRTYTOME 6/1

I like FOREIGN CREATION here. Displays the look of a money-making play, averaging a solid 63 speed rating which is one of the best in this field. Ought to be considered - I like the figures from the last competition. A solid 77 avg class figure may give this filly a distinct class edge against this field. BLING SPRINGSTEEN - Steinberg will probably be able to get this filly to break out early here. Overall, has one of the best earnings per start in dirt route contests in this bunch. TOCDIRTYTOME - Has been running admirably and has among the most competitive speed in the race for today's distance. Put up a strong speed rating in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this race.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 08:10 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #4 - Post: 4:28pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#1A COWBOYS DREAM (ML=4/1)
#4 VALIANT DEFENDER (ML=5/2)

COWBOYS DREAM - This entrant obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has garnered the highest Equibase speed figure on the grass at the dist-surf. Gilligan and Broberg perform well when they partner up. Hard to beat a win percentage of 32. Average Equibase class figure is tops in this field. I think that is a big edge for a turf race. VALIANT DEFENDER - The 73 last race speed figure looks mighty good on paper. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a strong effort is a good sign. This horse is for real on the turf. TrackMaster turf figure in last race at Louisiana Downs was tops in this field. Recent speed figures show powerful pattern of improvement.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 FREDONIAN (ML=7/2), #1 C H MY LAST DOLLAR (ML=4/1), #7 GRAND ATLANTIC (ML=5/1),

FREDONIAN - 79/76/60, are the declining speed figures for this less than sharp equine. I'd like to see more hospitable recent efforts with M/L odds of 7/2. C H MY LAST DOLLAR - On a downward series. Equibase speed figures keep deteriorating. GRAND ATLANTIC - He's almost certainly going to get roasted up front. He only beat a maiden claiming field in the last event. Have to pass on this thoroughbred versus winners for now. He had to show me more against that weaker field in the last race on June 6th to get my support today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 Entry on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-06-2020, 09:35 AM

Paul Leiner

Horse Pick and Soccer 7/6

Mon Jul 06, 2020 (Paul didn't get the memo on Lone Star)
Nice one yesterday. Today I have another soccer play and a horse pick from Lone Star. Goodluck.

100* Real Sociedad +110

Lone Star Race 4
#3 LeRoy $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-1-5