Service Plays Saturday 7/11/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley UFC

Alexander Volkanovski (-195) vs. Max Holloway (+165): Volkanovski via unanimous decision

This is a rematch from December, when Volkanovski took Holloway's featherweight title. Volkanovski clearly won that fight, and his leg kicks were a big factor. He also had the cardio to hang with Holloway over five rounds, which has been a big problem for other fighters in the past. I see this fight being very similar to their first one though, and I have to lean toward Volkanovski getting the win. He is the more powerful guy who is more likely to get a knockout or takedowns, and if Holloway can't figure out a way to stop the leg kicks here, then it will be tough for him to win. Holloway needs to throw some calf kicks of his own and use his movement to minimize Volkanovski's leg kicks. If he can do that and land enough volume on the feet, then he can win at least three rounds and record the upset. I think the line is about right here though, and I will take Volkanovski to win three or four rounds here.


Petr Yan (-260) vs. Jose Aldo (+210): Yan via TKO

This is a fight for the bantamweight belt that Henry Cejudo vacated when he retired in May. I have been very high on Yan and called him a future champion. I didn't think it would come via a win over Aldo, but here we are. I don't think this is a runaway at all, but I do like Yan in this fight. I think he is the more dangerous striker who will be throwing more volume, and I see him having more success the longer this fight goes. But Aldo also can be successful, and if he utilizes his leg kicks like he used to, that will help his chances here. He could get a knockout of his own, but I wouldn't be shocked to see him win three rounds on the judges' scorecards in order to get his hand raised. I just have to lean with Yan as I think he lands a lot of hard shots and ends up putting Aldo away in the latter half of the fight.


Jessica Andrade (+165) vs. Rose Namajunas (-195): Namajunas via unanimous decision

This is a rematch from a year ago, when Andrade knocked out Namajunas with a slam to take the women's strawweight title. This time, they'll go only three rounds, and we have Namajunas as almost a 2-1 favorite. She did look like the much better fighter in that first fight before slammed, and I think she'll look better this time as well. Andrade does have real power though, so she can get a knockout with her hands or a slam, and I believe she is going to need the KO to win this fight. I see Namajunas being the smoother striker, landing more shots and using her movement to avoid the power of Andrade. I thought we would get a better line on Namajunas here since she lost the first fight, but that isn't the case, so I don't think I would want to lay the price here unless she drops a bit. But she is the pick, and she could get a finish of her own.


Amanda Ribas (-800) vs. Paige VanZant (+550): Ribas via unanimous decision

I think this is a terrible matchup for VanZant, and I feel Ribas probably wins this fight nine out of 10 times like the odds indicate. Ribas is better everywhere here and I believe the only way she would lose is to submission from bottom, a guillotine or a rear naked choke if VanZant can get her back. I just think Ribas smokes her on the feet, although she can mop her on the floor as well. Ribas should control every minute of this fight and either get a finish or a clear 30-27 at worst. I don't see how VanZant even wins a round here, and I would expect at least one 10-8 round if this goes the distance.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Pleasanton

Pleasanton - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $2 Daily Double
Claiming $40,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 5:52P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES SINCE APRIL 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $40,000, IF FOR $35,000, ALLOWED 1 LB. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING, AND STARTER RACES FOR $32,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * REGINELLA: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. VRONILLA PARFAIT: Hors e ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. GOTHAM DESIRE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
4	REGINELLA	7/2	4/1
5	VRONILLA PARFAIT	9/5	4/1
2	GOTHAM DESIRE	2/1	9/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
4	REGINELLA	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	95	93	85.0	89.9	85.9
5	VRONILLA PARFAIT	5	9/5	Alternator/Stalker	99	95	81.8	92.8	88.3
2	GOTHAM DESIRE	2	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	99	98	67.2	92.8	87.8
1	SPRING HEAT	1	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	90	87.6	85.8	77.3
3	PROMOTE (IRE)	3	4/1	Alternator/Non-contender	81	82	81.6	80.6	73.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Delaware Park

Delaware Park - Race 7	Daily Double (Races 7-8) / Exacta / Trifecta (50-cent min.) Superfecta (10-cent min.) / Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9, 50-cent min.)
Stakes • 1 3/8 Miles • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 100 • Purse: $125,000 • Post: 4:15P
ROBERT G. DICK MEMORIAL S. - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $250 TO ENTER AND $500 TO START. $125,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: THREE YEAR OLDS 120 LBS. OLDER 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $90,000 AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF IN 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS. $60,000 AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF IN 2020, 4 LBS. $45,000 AT A MILE OR OVER ON THE TURF IN 2020, 6 LBS. (MAIDEN, CLAIMING AND STARTER RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES). TROPHY TO THE WINNING OWNER. CLOSED SATURDAY, JUNE 27, 2020 WITH 20 NOMINATIONS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT NOT TO RUN THIS RACE OVER THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT ONE MILE AND ONE QUARTER).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Class. MRS. SIPPY is the Dominant Class of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MRS. SIPPY: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse has the highest average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/s urface. GENTLE RULER: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. THEODORA B.: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface.
1	MRS. SIPPY	5/2	3/1
5	GENTLE RULER	3/2	7/1
7	THEODORA B.	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
9	TASS	9	12/1	Front-runner	93	89	97.4	87.6	75.1
10	TIGHTLY TWISTED	10	12/1	Stalker	93	88	91.0	87.8	70.8
4	NOT IN JEOPARDY	4	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	100	101	82.8	96.2	85.2
7	THEODORA B.	7	6/1	Trailer	98	99	90.5	93.8	87.3
6	BEALE STREET	6	12/1	Trailer	99	95	88.4	93.8	84.3
5	GENTLE RULER	5	3/2	Trailer	101	102	84.3	99.4	95.4
8	SHIFRA MAGICIAN	8	20/1	Trailer	87	85	82.0	85.0	71.5
1	MRS. SIPPY	1	5/2	Trailer	114	111	80.8	105.9	96.4
2	LA AUSTRALIANA	2	12/1	Alternator/Trailer	99	95	94.8	93.4	85.4
3	SAFFRON SPIRIT	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	95	71	57.2	67.3	49.3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Louisiana Downs - Race #2 - Post: 3:33pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,500 Class Rating: 45

Rating:

#2 MANDOLINE STAR (ML=3/1)


MANDOLINE STAR - I have to like this filly's chances at the shorter distance. Horses that finish second in Maiden races and finish well clear of the 3rd horse are generally good bets next time out. This animal could be tough in today's race, especially since Smith rode last out and now should be more familiar with this one. This filly's last speed figure is lofty enough to win here, I'll play her back again in today's event.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 DREAMING OF CURLIN (ML=5/2), #1 LOUISIANA SPECIAL (ML=7/2), #7 SOUTHERN GALAXY (ML=5/1),

DREAMING OF CURLIN - This probable favorite ran on June 15th and hasn't had a morning drill since. LOUISIANA SPECIAL - The speed figures continue to decline, 49/42/38. Not a positive signal. That was just not a very good exhibition in the last event. SOUTHERN GALAXY - I find it hard to bet on any questionable contender in a sprint event if she hasn't hit the board in a sprint in the last two months.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - MANDOLINE STAR - Some points of information to consider. This filly is going on Lasix for the second time. My calculation shows that any time Schmidt does this, the animal is conditioned properly and ready to go.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 MANDOLINE STAR to win at post-time odds of 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with 3
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Cross Country Pick Four

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Stakes - 11.0f on the Turf. Purse: $125000 Class Rating: 100

DEL - R7 - GRADE 3 FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. BY SUBSCRIPTION OF $100 EACH WHICH SHALL ACCOMPANY THE NOMINATION; $250 TO ENTER AND $500 TO START. $125,000 GUARANTEED, OF WHICH TO BE DIVIDED 60% TO THE WINNER, 20% TO SECOND, 11% TO THIRD, 6% TO FOURTH AND 3% TO FIFTH. WEIGHT: THREE YEAR OLDS 120 LBS. OLDER 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF $90,000 AT A MILE OR OVER

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 LA AUSTRALIANA 12/1
# 5 GENTLE RULER 3/2
# 6 BEALE STREET 12/1

LA AUSTRALIANA is my selection especially at a long price. Her earnings per start in turf route contests alone makes you take a look at her. GENTLE RULER - Should be given consideration based on the respectable speed rating put up in the last contest. Has run admirably when racing a turf route race. BEALE STREET - Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly. Always tough to beat Matz and Vargas working together, winning 21 percent of their races.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Delta Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 6 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $11000 Class Rating: 74

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 126 LBS.; OLDER, 128 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BABYGATOR 2/1
# 5 TTT DOUBLE DASHING 3/1
# 1 CAJUN GRAY PATRIOT 6/1

BABYGATOR is the strongest wager in this race. Has posted solid speed figures in short races in the past. Shows solid Equibase speed figs on average overall when measured up against the rest of this field. Has to be given a shot - I like the numbers from the last race. TTT DOUBLE DASHING - He has been racing solidly recently while recording strong Equibase Speed Figures. Always good to invest in a handler with this kind of competitive win percentage - 18 percent - at this distance & surface. CAJUN GRAY PATRIOT - He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figures are among the best in this group of animals.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #3 - Post: 8:02pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 55

Rating:

#4 BRET'S LEGACY (ML=5/2)


BRET'S LEGACY - My peers and I have made cash playing thoroughbreds with this type of pace. Follow my advice and do the same. I think this gelding is ready to run a good one. He's had enough efforts since the layoff and should be fit. Have to give this gelding a good shot. Ran a sharp outing last out within the last month or so. He has the highest earnings per start. Check out this one.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 BRIAN'S AVENUE (ML=7/5), #7 JIMMY LEGS (ML=7/2), #6 BONDARO (ML=6/1),

BRIAN'S AVENUE - This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last couple of races. The Brain always warns me to keep away from thoroughbreds in short distance contests that haven't hit the board in short distance events lately. JIMMY LEGS - Awfully difficult to play this mount when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. Don't feel this less than sharp equine will make an impact in today's event. That last fig was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. BONDARO - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in sprint events in order to back him.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - BRET'S LEGACY - The data here is quite simple. This horse has a lot of pace, so I'd calculate that he sets the early fractions, with a chance to go wire to wire.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #4 BRET'S LEGACY to win if we can get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	4 with 6
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Keeneland

07/11/20, KEE, Race 6, 3.51 ET
07/11/20,KEE,6,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:01:02 STAKES. Shakertown Stakes. Grade 2. Purse $150,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. By subscription of $100 each, which should accompany the nomination or by Supplementary Nomination of $4,500 at time of entry (Includes entry and starting fees). $750 to enter and an additional $750 to start, with $150,000 guaranteed, of which $90,000 to the owner of the winner, $30,000 to second, $15,000 to third, $7,500 to fourth, $4,500 to fifth and $3,000 to be divided equally among sixth through last. Weight: Three year olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 126 lbs. Non-winners of a Grade I stakes on the turf since November 1, allowed 3 lbs.; a sweepstakes on the turf since September 1, 5 lbs. The maximum number of starters for the Shakertown will be limited to fourteen with two also eligibles. In the event that more than fourteen pass the entry box, the fourteen starters will be determined at that time with preference given to graded stakes winners (in order I-II-III), then highest turf earnings in 2019-2020. Starters to be named through the entry box by the usual time of closing. Keeneland will present a trophy cup to the winning owner. Closed Wednesday, June 24, 2020 with 36 nominations. In the event that this race is taken off the turf it will be contested at the Five and One Half Furlongs on the main track.
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Wildman Jack	5/2	Smith M E	O'Neill Doug F.	SF	41.67	2.43/$1
099.2460	11	Tiger Blood	12-1	Saez L	Maker Michael J.	WL	31.03	1.56/$1
098.4548	8	Bound for Nowhere	5/2	Garcia J A	Ward Wesley A.	JT	31.03	1.56/$1
096.6589	1	Extravagant Kid	6-1	Rosario J	Walsh Brendan P.		31.03	1.56/$1
096.4626	7	Fast Boat	8-1	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		31.03	1.56/$1
096.3901	13	Leinster	12-1	Gaffalione T	Arnold. II George R.		31.03	1.56/$1
096.2195	9	Texas Wedge	6-1	Prat F	Miller Peter		31.03	1.56/$1
095.8872	3	Real News	15-1	Hernandez C J	Stall. Jr. Albert M.		31.03	1.56/$1
095.3055	10	Totally Boss	8-1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Arnold. II George R.	E	31.03	1.56/$1
094.3860	4	Tell Your Daddy	30-1	Graham J	Pessin Neil L.		31.03	1.56/$1
093.5230	5	Just Might	50-1	Achard A	Lovell Michelle		31.03	1.56/$1
092.8804	12	Corruze	50-1	Lanerie C J	Hartman Chris A.		31.03	1.56/$1
092.4895	6	Smart Remark	50-1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		31.03	1.56/$1
092.1068	15	Nitrous	20-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	C	31.03	1.56/$1
091.6810	14	Shared Legacy	50-1	Cannon D	Sancal Murat		31.03	1.56/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.27, ROI 1.44/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	8	Bound for Nowhere	5/2	Garcia J A	Ward Wesley A.	JTF	38.03	1.33/$1
098.7890	2	Wildman Jack	5/2	Smith M E	O'Neill Doug F.	S	36.49	1.25/$1
097.9568	11	Tiger Blood	12-1	Saez L	Maker Michael J.	WL	36.49	1.25/$1
097.0641	13	Leinster	12-1	Gaffalione T	Arnold. II George R.		38.03	1.33/$1
095.8344	1	Extravagant Kid	6-1	Rosario J	Walsh Brendan P.		38.03	1.33/$1
095.6749	9	Texas Wedge	6-1	Prat F	Miller Peter		36.49	1.25/$1
095.4832	7	Fast Boat	8-1	Beschizza A	Sharp Joe		38.03	1.33/$1
095.2975	3	Real News	15-1	Hernandez C J	Stall. Jr. Albert M.		38.03	1.33/$1
094.9671	10	Totally Boss	8-1	Hernandez. Jr. B J	Arnold. II George R.	E	38.03	1.33/$1
093.6383	4	Tell Your Daddy	30-1	Graham J	Pessin Neil L.		38.03	1.33/$1
092.3518	6	Smart Remark	50-1	Bejarano R	Oliver Victoria H.		38.03	1.33/$1
092.3359	15	Nitrous	20-1	Santana. Jr. R	Asmussen Steven M.	C	38.03	1.33/$1
091.9220	12	Corruze	50-1	Lanerie C J	Hartman Chris A.		38.03	1.33/$1
091.5040	14	Shared Legacy	50-1	Cannon D	Sancal Murat		38.03	1.33/$1
091.4691	5	Just Might	50-1	Achard A	Lovell Michelle		38.03	1.33/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 38.18, ROI 1.15/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

07/11/20, DMR, Race 1, 2.00 PT
07/11/20,DMR,1,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:01 CLAIMING. Purse $24,000. FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. Weight, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since April 11, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A race since then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $20,000, if for $18,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Maiden races and Claiming races for $16,000 or less not considered).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Next Flight	6-1	Velez J I	Miyadi Steven	TSFE	43.24	1.63/$1
098.6467	4	Octopus	3-1	Maldonado E A	Leyva Juan		43.24	1.63/$1
097.6712	6	Malakai Moxie	6-1	Cedillo A	D'Amato Philip	C	43.24	1.63/$1
096.9727	5	Foreign Protocol	7/2	Franco G	Howey Quinn	W	43.24	1.63/$1
095.9295	3	Mister McLean	4-1	Gonzalez R	McCanna Tim	J	43.24	1.63/$1
094.7387	2	Hydrogen	5/2	Fuentes R	Bonde Jeff	L	43.24	1.63/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 42.86, ROI 1.57/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Conn

Jul 11 '20, 8:05 PM in 10h
Fighting | Roman Bogatov vs Leonardo Santos
Play on: Roman Bogatov +160 at YouWager

1* Free Play on Roman Bogatov +160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Jul 11 '20, 4:00 PM in 5h
Soccer | Betis vs Atletico Madrid
Play on: Atletico Madrid -219 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Atletico Madrid -219

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sat Jul 11, 2020
England - Championship- Hull City vs. Millwall OVER 2.5 +111 (10:00 AM)
England - Premier League- Norwich City vs. West Ham United OVER 2.5 -111 (10:00 AM)
Austria - Bundesliga- Austria Vienna vs. Hartberg UNDER 3 -110 (11:00 AM)
Sweden - Superettan- Jonkopings Sodra vs. Degerfors OVER 2.5 -110 (11:30 AM)
Sweden - Superettan- Orgryte vs. Sundsvall OVER 2.5 -114 (11:30 AM)

England - Premier League- Chelsea -152 Sheffield United (12:30 PM)
England - Premier League- Watford -115 Newcastle United (7:30 AM)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NSA(The Legend)

FREE HORSE PICKS
GULFSTREAM PARK
RACE #7
POST TIME: 3:03 PM EST
PICK: #4 Champers(7/2 Odds) to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jul 11 '20, 3:45 PM in 4h
Soccer | Atalanta vs Juventus
Play on: Juventus +125 at 5Dimes

FREE PLAY on Juventus +125

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

UFC and Blue Grass Stakes 7/11

Sat Jul 11, 2020
Taking a break from soccer today for some UFC and a big race at Keeneland.

100* Davey Grant +140 over Martin Day

Keenleland Race 9(Blue Grass Stakes)
#12 Enforceable $10 w/p/s
$2 exacta box 12-7-3