Service Plays Tuesday 7/14/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:01 AM

Al Cimaglia: Scioto Downs Pick 5 Analysis

July 14, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Scioto Downs has 15-races on tap and the 0.50 Pick 5 begins in Race 5. The contentious sequence has a 14% takeout and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 5

1-Full On Rocknroll (8-1)-Gets post relief and has the gate speed to protect the rail. The program chalk #8, will likely be leaving and Beattie could end up with a pocket trip. Could surprise at a nice price and is a use in exacta's as well.
8-Blazin Baron (2-1)-Drops into a soft spot and has the speed to get the top. It could be picture time if lands on the engine without using a lot of gas.

Race 6

4-Lightning Belle (2-1)-Not loving the 2-1 morning line but is in a spot to be forwardly placed. Could get sucked around and rally down the lane.
8-Aqua Lillies (9/2)-Meadows shipper has been facing tougher foes than others and should have enough gate speed to get a close-up seat. Can take a picture with the right trip.

Race 7

3-Some Of You (7/2)-Will take a swing with this 3-year-old versus a suspect group of mares. Barn has been rolling, filly has won 2 of 8 at ScD, and Trevor Smith sticks.
9-I M McCited (9-1)-This gal has been bet and has burned some cash. Now draws outside and should be a price. My guess is Miller blasts out and hops on the engine. Has the gate speed to give that plan a shot and that's the best chance for a picture.

Race 8

1-Smoking Jet (7/2)-Finally draws inside in 3rd ScD start, does meet a stronger field but should stay in the hunt from start to finish.
5-Rose Run Valor (5/2)-Competitive Father Patrick 3-year-old makes 1st ScD and appears to be a player with a good a steer.

Race 9

2-Duel Of Truth (7/2)-Had a rough trip in last but kept coming with a 55.3 last half while racing wide. Should like the company and gets a positive driver change in 2nd start off the bench.
6-Major Deception (5/2)-Program chalk got caught racing wide in a very quick mile in the slop. Could not make up ground even with a 55.2 back half. Best to respect Morgan trainee in this spot.

0.50 Pick 5

1,8/4,8/3,9/1,5/2,6
Total bet=$16

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:02 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Canterbury Park - Race #5

#3 Sweeping Edge	Expected stiff favorite has been facing open foes and now drops into a state-bred heat, is 5-for-10 locally, and goes for a potent Broberg barn; too much for these.
#7 Water Patrol	Litfin claim (12%) enters off two laughers against open and should trip out, though the pick has more firepower on paper, so she needs to step up; the main danger.
#2 Public Safety	Lightly raced runner was a decent 3rd in a state-bred stakes last time, so in theory this is a drop, but the top pair aren't your normal Mn breds either; underneath only.
Race Summary	You certainly won't get rich on the 3, but that 2-1 ML would be an overlay, as he's simply better than these, so make an aggressive win and place bet if you can sniff 8-5 or better, though you can get some guaranteed value by singling him to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5, since that's not a move the betting public likes to make to kick off a sequence, and the 7 will take plenty of play as well, so a win would not only knock out some tickets, but will allow for more coverage in the upcoming four legs as well.

Canterbury Park - Race #6

#2 Viva Forever	Veteran got back to the turf last time and really improved, and while she's winless in eight starts on the grass, a repeat of that run, which came at the level, would put her in the mix here, plus she drew well, and will offer plenty of value too; upset special.
#3 Trish the Dish	Tricky read wins this by 4 with her best but was basically eased the last time we saw her at GP in Jan., and now she's in a new barn off the break, but there's also no drop, and she's been with Brinson here before, so the freshening may do her good; using.
#7 Carriage	State-bred was just a close 6th with a big figure (for these) in her last, and is 2-for-6 over the local course too, and if you toss the no-show sprint return two-back her form really comes into focus, at what should be a nice price as well; contention runs deep.
Race Summary	That 10-1 ML seems like plenty of risk-reward on the 2, as this isn't a great group, and the two (unmentioned) favorites, #4 and #1, look no better than any of the top-3 above, so give 'Viva a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since she's in the mix with these off that last run, at a much better price too, which means a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #7

#4 True West	Class riser was a good 3rd off the break last time, should be able to build off that in what is a confident rise, and should get some speed to rally into as well; can surprise.
#6 Herbie	The chalk didn't see out two turns last time, at ods-on, so the cutback makes sense, but with other speed here, a meek run, and a short price, he's no lock; underneath only.
#9 Blue Jeans N Beer	Stalker beat the pick last time and therefore clearly fits here, and he'll get first run too, but you wonder if he regresses off what was his best run in a while; mixed signals.
Race Summary	You'll get plenty of value on the 4, even though he's not far out of this on paper and has every right to improve on his last, so give him a look in all the slots, and in the 10% takeout Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would go a long way in adding plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:03 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#8 Selling Out	Has hit or miss form, but there are some really solid tries on the page, and he has handled the turf in the past. Mid-range price chance?
#5 Heart in Hand	Just handled some of these last time out, and he has been consistent and tough when facing this kind in the past. The one to beat at a shorter price than his $10 payoff last out.
#1 Arch Revenge	Couldn't hold off Heart in Hand when they met last time out, but he also doesn't need to have the front end. Wouldn't be a total surprise to see him turn the tables.
Race Summary	Selling Out is worth a look at what should be a playable price on the board, and he's capable of something better than he showed in the off going last out.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#8 Loupacate	Local debut went well while making the first North American start, and she should be in line for another nice trip near the top today.
#2 Baroness Vontrappe	Comeback run wasn't much, but the move back to the turf might work in her favor, and she has handled two-turn trips in the past.
#5 Chasing the Kitty	Winless from five starts on the turf, but that last try wasn't all bad when just fading late. Third start off the bench might produce a good one today?
Race Summary	Loupacate ran well off a very long layoff last time out when just tiring late, and she should be tighter with that race under her belt. Any step forward makes her a real handful here.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#5 Kitten's Man	Maiden winner steps up to face better, but those two local races have been really sharp, and something like those efforts would get the job done here on the hike. Price won't be much, but he sure looks like the right one.
#2 Total Distraction	Not quite sure what to make of this one, but the three-back Tampa run would fit very well here if he's able to run back to it. Would want better than the 7/2 ML offering.
#9 Zafir	Should get a pretty nice run of things from the wide draw, and his spying style should serve him well here. He's another where I would want something very close to the 3/1 ML price to consider it.
Race Summary	Kitten's Man probably gets bet here, and he might be the right kind of multi-race single. He'll get another good trip near the top and probably handles these at a short price with anything like his last pair.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:04 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

The Meadows - Race #2

#2 DELCREST MAGICSTAR	Escaped trap, closed 4-wide in stretch, finished third.
#5 JOPLIN	Stacked up in lively outer flow, bothered by breaker on turn.
#6 RUSH LANE	Gets needed class relief, must stay in closer contact early.
Race Summary	Delcrest Magicstar tracked the pace 3-deep, found room to angle out when the rival to her outside went off stride near the ¾-mile mark, then closed wide to finish third. Play a 2-5-6 exacta box.

Pocono Downs - Race #1

#9 KAFFIR KEMP	Chased odds-on fave for second runner-up finish in a row.
#5 SORTIE HANOVER	Burned money against similar, can awaken off the claim.
#7 AXIOS	Carried speed to back-to-back wins since return and third straight overall.
Race Summary	Kaffir Kemp got caught by the 2-to-1 pocket sitter two starts back, then chased the 1-to-5 winner around the track last week. Early position will be the key from a difficult starting spot, but his price should be better as a result.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #9

#1 BIG MYRTLE	Moves outside in, figures close-up throughout, offers some value.
#5 LANDRY SEELSTER	Steady check-getter was beaten fave in prior sire stakes try.
#2 MACH ME ONEMORE	Disappointed on trip to Georgian Downs, can’t be discounted.
Race Summary	Big Myrtle tracked the 2-to-1 winner through solid fractions and held third as the favorite. She gets a favorable post switch for her first try in sire stakes competition. Play 1-2 and 1-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:04 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Indiana Grand - Race #2

#1 Sir Brahms	Was up in time in his 1st one here and was claimed by Garcia stable; ran well vs. Arkansas-bred allowance runners and that should translate well to this starter allowance.
#3 Odie	Crushed conditioned claimers at Indiana Grand last out and has taken two of his last three; super tough if he runs back to his last one.
#5 Most Mischief	Was 3rd in his two attempts at Churchill Downs and is back on the right track after running poorly in three straight; capable of a big run and Bejarano makes the trip for the ride.
Race Summary	Sir Brahms outgamed a good group last time and makes his 1st for Garcia, who is going at a 27-percent local clip.

Indiana Grand - Race #4

#2 Midnight Blue Note	Made a strong run from 9th to 2nd in the stretch during his 1st local start and Parker keeps the mount; fits nicely at this level.
#10 Soul Song	Was tough on the front end vs. Louisiana-breds at Fair Grounds and trainer Amoss is hitting at 28 percent.
#12 Dance Proudly	Ran a solid 3rd after three months off and can make another big run; has won 13 of 22 at Indiana Grand and seeks his 1st win of his 10-year-old season.
Race Summary	Midnight Blue Note will have the pace in front of him and can get a better trip from the inside; will come rolling.

Indiana Grand - Race #7

#8 Pretty Boy Dave	Was an easy winner in his 1st Indiana Grand start of the year and much better than last year when he was a 2-year-old; clearly has figured this out and can get a repeat win if he runs back to his latest.
#10 Music to My Ears	Was claimed at Santa Anita by Davis stable and took on some good company there and at Golden Gate and Del Mar; was a $400K purchase as a 2-year-old.
#5 Seminole Justice	Has good speed and can get tot he lead vs. these; his best makes him a threat to wire this group.
Race Summary	Pretty Boy Dave crushed state-bred maidens last out and can be in the hunt throughout; has done well since running poorly in his first two.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:47 AM

Hunter Price

Jul 14 '20, 8:00 PM in 13h
Soccer | New York vs Orlando City SC
Play on: Orlando City SC +290 at Mirage

1* Free Pick on Orlando City SC +290

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 05:48 AM

Steve Janus

Jul 14 '20, 4:30 PM in 9h
Soccer | Guimaraes vs Benfica
Play on: Benfica -163 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Benfica -163

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:13 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Parx Racing

Parx Racing - Race 1	Daily Double / Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-4) / 10 cent Superfecta
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 62 • Purse: $20,000 • Post: 12:55
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. BAYLEAF is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BAYLEAF: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in averag e Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. TIZ A SHARPIE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and trainer's win percentage with horses coming off a layoff is at least 25. Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has run well in the p ast in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
1	BAYLEAF	7/5	2/1
2	TIZ A SHARPIE	6/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	BAYLEAF	1	7/5	Front-runner	66	62	62.2	62.2	57.7
2	TIZ A SHARPIE	2	6/1	Stalker	75	68	47.7	55.8	51.3
5	STAY SALTY	5	15/1	Alternator/Stalker	64	63	57.2	48.0	36.5
4	IWASBORNAWINNER	4	5/2	Alternator/Stalker	66	59	52.4	49.4	43.4
3	MUCHA MUCHACHA	3	9/2	Alternator/Trailer	63	49	41.5	49.2	40.2
6	BRYCE'S PHILLY	6	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	61	45	58.8	34.0	23.5
7	PASCHA PASCHA	7	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	28.2	34.6	25.6

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:15 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Indiana Downs

Indiana Downs - Race 7	Daily Double / Exacta / Trifecta / 50 Cent Trifecta / Superfecta 10 Cent Superfecta / 50 Cent Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9)
Allowance • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $34,500 • Post: 5:08P
FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $10,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * MUSIC TO MY EARS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has th e highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. SEMINOLE JUSTICE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. PREPARE FOR GLORY: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(spr int or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
10	MUSIC TO MY EARS	7/2	3/1
5	SEMINOLE JUSTICE	4/1	4/1
1	PREPARE FOR GLORY	5/1	10/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	SEMINOLE JUSTICE	5	4/1	Front-runner	79	75	75.4	70.6	65.1
9	WYMAN	9	30/1	Front-runner	66	63	64.2	50.4	35.4
2	EL BOHEMIO	2	10/1	Stalker	63	61	67.0	57.6	44.1
8	PRETTY BOY DAVE	8	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	74	67	45.5	58.1	47.1
1	PREPARE FOR GLORY	1	5/1	Trailer	81	67	34.6	64.4	59.4
4	VICTOR'S DEAL	4	5/1	Trailer	77	75	27.4	60.2	52.7
6	ALTERNATE NIGHTS	6	10/1	Trailer	60	60	14.8	57.2	41.7
10	MUSIC TO MY EARS	10	7/2	Alternator/Trailer	91	83	63.0	79.0	74.5
7	TOPPING	7	30/1	Alternator/Non-contender	63	64	59.6	43.6	28.1
3	PROUD N FAMOUS	3	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	60	47	53.3	50.3	36.3

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:16 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Thistledown

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 7 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $23000 Class Rating: 94

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OPTIONAL, STARTER, OR OHIO BRED. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 14 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE MAY 14 ALLOWED 4 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 DARE DAY 6/5
# 1 HE'S NO BULL 6/1
# 4 JOSIE'S RIDDLE 10/1

DARE DAY is my choice. Has been racing very well and has among the best speed in the race for today's distance. Tough to pass on this gelding with Rivera in the saddle. Looks very strong against this group and should be one of the front-runners. HE'S NO BULL - The average Equibase class rating of 87 makes this horse tough to beat. Has performed very well lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 87 avg speed rating. JOSIE'S RIDDLE - This gelding gets a boost with Ceballos in the irons. Must be considered - I like the figs from the last outing.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:17 AM

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Canterbury Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $14000 Class Rating: 89

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500 MINNESOTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 KELLER'S GOLD 4/1
# 4 CREATIVE ART 8/5
# 6 VALLEY WILDCAT 8/1

I think about KELLER'S GOLD here. Velazquez's return on investment over the last month automatically makes this horse a strong contender. Should be given a chance in this competition if only for the competitive Equibase Speed Figure recorded in the last affair. Must be given consideration given the class of races run lately. CREATIVE ART - Has very strong Equibase Speed Figures and has to be considered for a bet in here. Should be given a shot based on the solid speed rating earned in the last competition. VALLEY WILDCAT - Garnered a formidable speed rating in the latest race. Can run another good one in this contest.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:21 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:04pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $11,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#5 CAUSE FOR PARDON (ML=7/2)
#6 MOON LAUNCH (ML=5/1)

CAUSE FOR PARDON - Ran last out against a better group of horses at Gulfstream Park. The move to a lower class rank should suit him well. When I handicap a grass race, I think sometimes class ratings are more important than speed figs. This thoroughbred has the highest average class in the entire group. You should overlook that last race at Gulfstream Park on the soft turf where he finished off the board. Should do well in this race without the slop. MOON LAUNCH - Nice return on investment for this jock and trainer twosome. I think the shorter trip will help this gelding stay the trip. I like that latest race on June 24th at Belterra Park where he finished first.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SURGE PRICING (ML=5/2), #10 CALIFORNIA SUN (ML=9/2), #3 ITS YES (ML=6/1),

SURGE PRICING - This gelding has already been defeated as the public's choice twice. Hard to give him another chance. Can't really back the favorite when he has multiple failures as the public's top choice. ITS YES - Tough to put your dough on the win end of any horse that finishes second and third as frequently as this one does. A bit of a less than stellar performance when this colt finished seventh. This colt notched a speed fig in his last event which probably isn't good enough in today's event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #5 CAUSE FOR PARDON to win if you can get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 08:24 AM

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Lone Star Park - Race #8 - Post: 5:15pm - Stakes - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $75,000 Class Rating: 84 Lane's End Danny Shifflett Scholarship S.

Rating:

#8 SHES OUR FASTEST (ML=7/2)
#5 CORLUNA (ML=3/1)

SHES OUR FASTEST - This mare is a gem of consistency, almost always on the board. This horse obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has notched the highest Equibase speed figure on the turf at the distance & surface. The return on investment when Diego and Gelner hook up is terrific. Was in the Yellow Rose at Lone Star Park in the last race. That race had a class number of 92 and she is moving down right here in this race. A certain solid contender. CORLUNA - I like that latest effort on Jun 14th at Lone Star Park where she ended up third.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HERBS LOVE (ML=5/2), #3 AVERYS MISS (ML=9/2),

HERBS LOVE - Not probable for this horse to make an impact with no recent good showings in a sprint race. I don't normally play a morning-line favorite that hasn't been to the track in the last 3 weeks. Don't believe this vulnerable equine will make an impact in today's race. That last speed fig was mediocre when compared with today's class rating. AVERYS MISS - Can't wager on this steed in today's sprint of 7 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint contest lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #8 SHES OUR FASTEST on the win end if we get at least 3/2 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-14-2020, 10:41 AM

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE HORSE RACING WINNER 7/14/20
RACE #5 from FAIRMOUNT PARK
POST TIME: 7:22 PM EST
Free Pick: #4 Better Angels 9/2 Odds to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)