Service Plays Friday 7/17/20

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Meadows Tulsa

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Claiming - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $8400 Class Rating: 60

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR ACCREDITED OKLAHOMA-BREDS MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 GREAT MASTER 5/2
# 6 PAINT ME BAD 3/1
# 1 CHARROUX 2/1

My choice in here is GREAT MASTER. Has run well when travelling a short race. He has been running admirably and the Equibase Speed Figs are among the most competitive in this group. The speed figure of 54 from his last affair looks very strong in here. PAINT ME BAD - With a sound 57 average speed figure at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. Is difficult not to look at based on Equibase speed figs which have been respectable - 54 avg - of late. CHARROUX - Alexander has well above average profits at this distance/surface. Recent numbers for the jockey - 27 win percent - make this gelding stand out in this field.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #5 - Post: 9:02pm - Maiden Special - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,000 Class Rating: 66

Rating:

#6 COMPLETE SURPRISE (ML=3/1)
#7 PEARLY QUEEN (ML=4/1)


COMPLETE SURPRISE - This filly should be in fine form, this far into her form cycle. Taking a trip down the class scale; has the class to make her presence felt. That 64 fig this filly earned in her last race tells me she's a chief player this time around. PEARLY QUEEN - Bocachica's agent must like anytime Runco gives them a mount; winning percentage together is tremendous. This conditioner (Runco) has a terrific win percent with first time starters. Gets help from Runco with the addition of Lasix. Take this advice. When you've got a first time starter, take a look at dam stats as much as sire stats. This one's dam has been wonderful winning at a 50 pct clip. The 'x-factor' at work here is that this filly has been working over this track getting ready for her first start.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 LIAM'S LOOKOUT (ML=5/2), #9 RAISON D'ETAT GIRL (ML=5/1), #1 RUMOURIST (ML=8/1),

LIAM'S LOOKOUT - This favorite may be out of condition without any recent morning drills. Didn't finish in the money on Mar 25th at Gulfstream Park. Followed it up with another lackluster effort. RAISON D'ETAT GIRL - The Brain tells me to stay away from horses in short distance races that haven't hit the board in short distance affairs lately. RUMOURIST - Finished eighth last time. Would have to improve to be in the money today. The Brain always tells me to keep away from ponies in sprint events that haven't finished in the money in sprint races lately.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#6 COMPLETE SURPRISE is the play if we get odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

07/17/20, MTH, Race 1, 5.00 ET
07/17/20,MTH,1,1M [Dirt] 1:33:04 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $17,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $10,000.
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	6	Dohko	5-1	Castillo I	Alcala Cesar	SL	80.00	3.02/$1
098.9966	7	Wendigo	6-1	Hernandez C J	Ortega Leopoldo M.	FWC	80.00	3.02/$1
098.7031	2	Big City Ralph	3-1	Lopez P	Delgado Jose H.	J	80.00	3.02/$1
098.4688	8	Political	5/2	Carrasco V R	Miceli Michael	E	80.00	3.02/$1
098.1656	1	Rose for a Saint	8-1	Garcia W A	Einhorn Skip		80.00	3.02/$1
098.1625	9	Intuitive	9/2	Diaz. Jr. H R	Sacco Gregory D.	T	80.00	3.02/$1
095.5657	3	Caleb the Boss	20-1	Mejia T B	Simmonds Michael A.		80.00	3.02/$1
095.1189	4	Dialed in Gold	8-1	DeCarlo C P	Mejia Jaime		80.00	3.02/$1
094.7816	5	Right of Way	30-1	Panaijo J	Cash Russell J.		80.00	3.02/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.92/$1

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GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE HORSE RACING WINNER 7/17/20
RACE #3 from LAUREL PARK
POST TIME: 2:15 PM EST
Free Pick: #4 Honor Run 7/2 Odds to WIN(BET ACROSS THE BOARD!)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Horse Picks & Soccer 7/17

Fri Jul 17, 2020
Saratoga gets it going today and I have two from there plus a soccer pick. Goodluck.

100* Over 2.5 West Ham/Watford

Saratoga Race 2
#10 Brunate $10 wps
$2 exacta box 10-1-11

Saratoga Race 9
#10 Please Flatter Me $10 wps
$2 exacta box 10-5-9

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	HORSES – Charles Town Race 2: #2 to WIN
2.	Gameday Network	HORSES – Charles Town Race 7: #4 to WIN
3.	VegasSI.com	HORSES – Charles Town Race 1: #6 to WIN
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 6: #7 to WIN
5.	Sports Action 365	HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 8: #5 to WIN
6.	Point Spread Report	HORSES – Ruidoso Downs Race 3: #5 to WIN
7.	Lou Panelli	HORSES – Delta Downs Race 1: #4 to WIN
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	HORSES – Delta Downs Race 5: #7 to WIN
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	HORSES – Delta Downs Race 7: #5 to WIN
10.	William E. Stockton	HORSES – Woodbine Race 7: #8 to WIN
11.	Vincent Pioli	HORSES – Woodbine Race 3: #5 to WIN
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	HORSES – Woodbine Race 6: #2 to WIN
13.	SCORE	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 5: #7 to WIN
14.	East Coast Line Movers	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 7: #3 to WIN
15.	Tony Campone	HORSES – Gulfstream Park Race 3: #4 to WIN
16.	Chicago Sports Group	HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 6: #3 to WIN
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 7: #6 to WIN
18.	VIP Action	HORSES – Evangeline Downs Race 3: #7 to WIN
19.	South Beach Sports	HORSES – Saratoga Race 5: #5 to WIN
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	HORSES – Saratoga Race 7: #3 to WIN
21.	NY Players Club	HORSES – Saratoga Race 1: #3 to WIN
22.	Fred Callahan	HORSES – Saratoga Race 8: #1 to WIN
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 3: #7 to WIN
24.	Michigan Sports	HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 5: #14 to WIN
25.	National Consensus Report	HORSES – Monmouth Park Race 6: #4 to WIN

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 7/17/20

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July 17, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Friday, July 17, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 6-Value Engineering

Forecast: The opener is a mini-marathon allowance event over a grass course labeled “good” that looks made to order for Value Engineering. The son of Lemon Drop Kid colt is improving with racing and should be well-suited by this 11-furlong trip. Never off the board in five starts and fresh from a game win in a productive entry-level event at Belmont Park, the C. Brown-trained colt has enough tactical speed to be anywhere J. Castellano wants him to be, perhaps even on the front end of no other pace materializes. Considering his connections, his rising speed figures and his potential, the lightly-raced 4-year-old is worth a play in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Slew’s Early Light

Forecast: Dawn’s Early Light is a seven-race maiden and already a three-time beaten favorite so he’s hard to trust, but at this maiden $25,000 level the Bayern colt really should be able to earn his diploma. The D. Gargan-trained colt returns to the main track and projects to be close up throughout and possibly on the front end from his rail post in this extended sprint affair that is noticeably lacking in early speed. Based purely on speed figures, he’s simply faster than his weak foes, so you can either take the short price, use him as a no-value rolling exotic single, or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: X
Single: 4-The Rock Says

Forecast: The Rock Says is a first off the $50,000 claim by R. Diodoro (31% with a massive flat-bet profit with this angle) so improvement is likely, if not certain. The son of Uncle Mo adds blinkers after failing at 50 cents on the dollar at Churchill Downs last month but a sloppy surface may have given him a legitimate excuse, and the fact that his new connections choose to protect him is a sign that they like the merchandise. Strong on numbers, in the frame in eight of nine career starts, and showing a good race last year over this track and distance, the four-year-old gelding seems pretty solid as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 1-Customerexperience; 4-Pick Up the Fone; 5-Stunning Munnings

Forecast: Sophomore fillies entered to be claimed for $25,000 sprint six furlongs in difficult affair that requires a spread in rolling exotic play. Customerexperience, fresh from a game win with a career-top speed figure at Gulfstream Park, moves up from the $16,000 ranks but has numbers that make her a strong fit in this league. The S. Joseph, Jr.-trained filly attracts J. Rosario and looks very live, though as a late-running sprinter from the rail she’s going to need help up front and good racing luck. Pick Up the Fone is the quickest of the quick and will take them as far as she can. Life-and-death to beat $20,000 field in Florida last time out, the T. Pletcher-trained filly moves up a level in a sign of confidence but isn’t particular strong in the speed figure department and will be tested, for sure, in the final furlong. Stunning Munnings, in the money in her last pair and likely to find herself in a pace-prompting position just outside Pick up the Fone, should have every chance from the top of the lane to the wire. However, her only victory came in gate-to-wire fashion and that scenario doesn’t seem likely today. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these three with Customerexperience the clear top pick; feel free to spread deeper if you find the need.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 4-Open Lengths; 7-Scuttlebuzz; 10-Sandro the Great

Forecast: This race has been taken off the turf and will be contested at a mile and one-eighth. Tread lightly, for sure. Scuttlebuzz missed by a neck in a turf sprint last month and today stretches out around two-turns for the first time in this state-bred maiden special weight affair. His main track form isn’t too bad and if he’s ever going to handle a distance of ground it will be in his first try, so we’ll put him on top while also including Open Lengths, a $225,000 Keeneland yearling and an intriguing first time starter from a barn that has very strong stats (22% with a flat-bet profit) with debut runners. The work tab doesn’t jump off the page, but we suspect this son of Lea has at least some ability. Also toss in Sandro the Great, an Empire Maker colt with winning connections (C. Clement/J. Rosario) who should have no trouble handling the track and trip.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Mission Wrapitup; 8-Big Thicket

Forecast: Big Thicket is comfortably drawn outside and projects to enjoy an ideal pace-stalking trip in this seven furlong affair for first-level New York-bred sprinters. The son of Union Rags was waiver-protected when winning a $25,000 seller with a career-top speed figure two runs back and then overcame some traffic trouble to finish an excellent second to odds-on Tale of the Union in a hot race just a few days ago. The quick-turnaround is always of some concern, but less so though when it’s a R. Rodriguez-trained runner. I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and knows him well Mission Wrapitup, in his second off the layoff for C. Brown and exiting a state-bred stakes race, switches to J. Castellano and should have some improvement in him. However, he’ll need a significant boost in the speed figure department to win. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics, with the main push going to Big Thicket.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 3-Passing Out; 4-Clara Peeters

Forecast: This year’s edition of the De La Rose Stakes is a listed affair but sure looks on paper to be at least of Grade 3 quality. Clara Peeters moves into stakes competition following a very impressive and visually pleasing seven furlong allowance win at Belmont Park last month, and while the step up in class surely will test her, the English-bred filly could easily be up to the task. Today’s added distance won’t be an issue at all, and with J. Castellano riding her back the B. Cox-trained import certainly will get the patient ride she requires. Passing Out was in too tough when third behind Rushing Fall in the Beaugay S.-G3 last time out and won’t have to face anybody that good today. The daughter of Orb should draft into a comfortable stalking position and with continued improvement should have every chance. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics and then have extra tickets keying Clara Peeters on top.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Lady Lawyer

Forecast: Lady Lawyer has much in her favor in this second-level abbreviated turf sprint for fillies and mares. Beaten a half-length in a similar type of race over seven furlongs last month at Belmont Park, the daughter of Blame shows a steady, healthy series of works since for C. Brown, whose stats with the second-off-the-layoff angle are off the charts. J. Rosario stays aboard and should have her on or near the lead throughout, so with any kind of forward move she should be able to shrug off whatever pace pressure she gets and handle this assignment as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 PT. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Risky Mandate 5-Indian Pride

Forecast: Indian Pride is listed at 6/5 on the morning line in this year’s edition of the listed Shine Again S. and there’s no question she’s the likely choice and one to beat. The daughter of Proud Citizen returned off an eight month layoff to beat a first-level allowance field at Belmont Park but was pretty much straight as a string to do so, and the runner-up came back to disappoint as a short priced favorite, so we’re wondering how strong of a race it really was. Of course, the C. Brown-trained filly has every right to move forward off that race and if she does she may never look back. That said, we’re going to try a gamble with Risky Mandate, a closing second with after a disastrous start from the rail in her recent comeback at Churchill Downs. A winner over this main track last year and then third in the Prioress S.-G2, the T. Amoss-trained filly has the proper style for seven furlongs and speed figures that make her a major threat. However, with the scratching off Estilo Femenino she’ll have to leave from the rail again, and this time she’d better break. Both should be included in rolling exotic play, but since ‘Mandate will be the better price of the two we’ll have extra tickets keying her on top.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 PT. Grade: C
Use: 5-Diannesimpazible; 6-Operative

Forecast: Maiden claiming $40,000 New York-bred older horses meet at the shortened distance of seven furlongs on the main track, a distance and surface switch dictated by overnight rains. Diannesimpazible - with okay prior dirt form - returned off a layoff in a grass affair and ran okay from a poor draw, winding up fifth while closing with some interest into an unfavorable race flow last month, and with any kind of forward move the D. Donk-trained gelding may be capable of producing the last run I. Ortiz, Jr. stays aboard and should be able to secure a mid-pack, ground-saving position and have every chance when it matters. Operative, the “other” Donk entrant, shows up in a seller for the first time, is a fit on numbers and could be a threat if he can handle dirt. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotics but not with any degree of confidence in a race that probably is best left alone.
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