Service Plays Sunday 7/19/20

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2020, 08:53 PM

Mike McClure

Developed by daily Fantasy pro and SportsLine predictive data engineer Mike McClure, this proprietary NASCAR prediction computer model simulates every race 10,000 times, taking into account a slew of factors including track history and recent results.

The model began its season paying out big by picking Denny Hamlin to win his second consecutive Daytona 500 at 10-1. It got off to a hot start following the coronavirus hiatus as well, calling seven top-10 drivers at The Real Heroes 400 and Toyota 500 at Darlington. Using the model, McClure also recommended an outright play on winner Brad Keselowski at 13-1 at Bristol.

The model also called Kevin Harvick's win at Atlanta and nailed a whopping nine top-10 finishers in that race. McClure then used the model to lock in a 10-1 bet on Hamlin for his win at Miami. At The Brickyard this month, the model called Harvick's fourth victory of the season, and then nailed four of the top-five drivers in the All-Star Race at Bristol.

Bets I'm making:

Joey Logano +1100

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Kevin Harvick (5-1)
2. Joey Logano (11-1)
3. Chase Elliott (10-1)
4. Ryan Blaney (11-1)
5. Kyle Busch (6-1)
6. Martin Truex Jr (8-1)
7. Denny Hamlin (11-2)
8. Brad Keselowski (11-1)
9. Kurt Busch (25-1)
10. Aric Almirola (25-1)

The rest of the field, according to the model:

11 Erik Jones
12 Clint Bowyer
13 Jimmie Johnson
14 Alex Bowman
15 William Byron
16 Matt DiBenedetto
17 Cole Custer
18 Tyler Reddick
19 Matt Kenseth
20 Christopher Bell
21 Austin Dillon
22 Ryan Newman
23 Ricky Stenhouse Jr
24 Chris Buescher
25 Ty Dillon
26 John H. Nemechek
27 Bubba Wallace
28 Ryan Preece
29 Daniel Suarez
30 Corey Lajoie
31 Michael McDowell
32 Joey Gase
33 JJ Yeley
34 Timmy Hill
35 Brennan Poole
36 Gray Gaulding
37 Quin Houff
38 BJ McLeod
39 Reed Sorenson
40 Garrett Smithley

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-18-2020, 08:53 PM

My Late Pick 4 Ticket Sunday at Saratoga

July 18, 2020 | By Jerry Shottenkirk

Unless you own a horse running at Saratoga on Sunday, there’s to be no onsite viewing of races at the Spa, but from your easy chair and a big screen TV, you are right there.
The card (and late Pick 4) features the Grade 2 Lake Placid Stakes, and while a little short of Grade 2-type talent (at this point in their career), it includes a lot of up-and-coming 3-year-old fillies who will likely become regulars to the graded ranks after this one. The Lake Placid carries a $150,000 purse and will be contested over 1 1-8th miles.
Cat’s Pajamas, a Street Sense filly trained by Graham Motion, is unbeaten on turf after two dismal performances in dirt races. After eight months off, she came back on May 17 at Churchill and was a clear winner in her first turf race – a maiden special weights races – and she was able to keep that form at Belmont as she ran back for an allowance.
The Lake Placid is the ninth race on the 10-race card, and it’s the third leg of the late Pick 4, which runs from races 7-10. Here’s a look at a $75 suggested ticket, and a capable look at each of the races of the sequence:

Race 7 (4:40 p.m. ET, maiden special weights)
CALDEE is a Brad Cox trainee, and most of those are ready to go. This one is usable in a difficult-to-handicap field of first-timers. PEACHY QUEEN posted a bullet work and has other nice drills for her debut. DRESSY is another with good works and looks like she fits with these. LUCIFERS LAIR has everything you look for in a first-time starter and is poised to run well. OUR FLASH DRIVE put forth a good drill last out and from the outside can avoid a lot of the traffic.

Race 8 (5:14 p.m. ET, allowance)
New York-bred conditioned allowance runners hit the green and two of them looking particularly solid. MY SASSY SARAH broke her maiden and most recently was third in an allowance after trying the Grade 2 Miss Grillo. She has an edge in quality experience. LIGHT IN THE SKY lost a photo at Belmont in her only 2020 start and has impressive closing move on occasion. She will benefit from a good pace in this short race and will be the late runner to watch.

Race 9 (5:46 p.m. ET, G2 Lake Placid Stakes)

SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER won a stakes race at Aqueduct and then moved up to the G3 Wonder Again last out. She didn’t make much of an impact but was an even fourth and has a better chance to run on late against these. STUNNING SKY was third two back at Gulfstream and then never really got involved while sixth in the G3 Regret. She’s came on some heavy heads and should move way up in this spot. CAT’S PAJAMA turned over a new leaf once she pointed toward the turf. This is a perfect opportunity for her first stakes attempt.

Race 10 (6:18 p.m. ET, claiming)
A nine-furlong claiming race is a crapshoot and usually requires quite a few options.
CONTROL GROUP has been hanging out at higher levels of competitions and drops to his lowest claiming price. Rodriguez claimed him two back, tried him on the turf and is now back to dirt. He might be able to right the ship. SHADOW RIDER is another (from the same barn) looking for a reversal in form and is taking a class drop to try it. He’s a late threat. MALIBU PRO was third against better and is usually comfortable when he gets on or close to the front end. MILLS comes in with the best form, having won three of his last four. The 10-year-old was claimed by the Barker stable two races back and responded with a win last time. His form and tactical speed make him a big threat to all the droppers. STREET TRUST came on well for third last four after trying much tougher. Late threat here.

Saratoga Late Pick 4:
7) #4 Caldee, #6 Peachy Queen, #8 Dressy, #9 Lucifers Lair, #10 Our Flash Drive.
8) #4 My Sassy Sarah, #5 Light in the Sky.
9) #1 Speaktomeofsummer, #6 Stunning Sky, #8 Cat’s Pajamas.
10) #2 Control Group, #5 Shadow Rider, #7 Malibu Pro, #8 Mills, #9 Street Trust.
50-cent Late Pick 4: 4-6-8-9-10 with 4-5 with 1-6-8 with 2-5-7-8-9 ($75)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:44 AM

Al Cimaglia: Hawthorne Racecourse Late Pick 4 Analysis

July 19, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
As usual the Sunday night card at Hawthorne Racecourse features a 0.50 Late Pick 4 with a $25,000 guaranteed pool. The sequence has a 15% takeout, the pools have been well above the guarantee, and it will be my focus.

The drivers with the hottest hands on Saturday were Casey Leonard and Todd Warren, both had three wins. Mike Brink, Steve Searle and Terry Leonard led the trainers, each had three trips to the winner's circle.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 10

1-Final Prize (2-1)-3-year-old had a big try from the 10-hole in last and off that effort he has been made the program chalk. Should be a player, this looks like an easy spot.
3-Captain Classic (6-1)-Hoosier invader has been facing better and has been stuck with the 9 or 10 post in all three starts. Should be in the hunt if he takes to the track.
6-Rock Jagger (12-1)-Was stuck with the 9-hole in last on a sloppy track and had a nice effort to finish 2nd. Gets a positive driver change in Todd Warren and he has been hot. Best to not overlook camera shy price shot.
8-Master Ken (3-1)-Team Leonard trainee comes off an easy win. This won't be as easy but can beat these if upswing continues.

Race 11

3-Johnnys Gal June (9-1)-Husted steers tonight and this filly took the long way around last week but didn't quit. That was her best effort in 7 starts. Could get sucked around from this post and might surprise at a nice price.
5-Sporty Miss Dune (6/5)-Steps-up after picking up a win off a nice trip. Doesn't offer any value at 6/5 and will include but look to beat.
8-Scorecard Nitelife (20-1)-1st time starter is Franco's choice over #3. Qualified on 7/4 and paced the back half in 57.1. Will likely race from the rear of the pack and could pick off a few down the lane. This is another who should be a price.
10-Yummy Candy (5-1)-Had a big effort with Bates in the bike and now Wilfong steers. Seemed to wake-up when dropped to this level and will use versus a suspect group.

Race 12

4-Shedaisy Ten (3-1)-Driver change to Todd Warren and drops to the lowest level in a while. 7-time winner in 2019 has won 3 of 10 in Stickney and has no excuse tonight.
6-The Second Star (8-1)-Has been stuck outside versus better and now drops in 3rd local start. Has been racing from the back and did go the 2nd half in .56. Fits better here and looking for an aggressive try.
7-My Kind Of Dance (7/2)-Only 3 for the last 46 but last start was better and now drops. This will be the 3rd start off a sick scratch and all systems could be "go" tonight.
10-Admit One (10-1)-Will take a swing with Oosting from the 10-hole instead of Franco from the rail. Oosting has driven this mare off cover before. My guess is the pace will be quick enough she can grind and roll by at a price.

Race 13

3-Brooke's Ocean (4/5)-Morning line choice is 3-3 and this crew isn't any better than those the filly beat on 7/4 in 152.4 on the engine from the 9-hole. Leonard steers and barring some bad luck it looks like another picture is set for tonight.

0.50 Late Pick 4

1,3,6,8/3,5,8,10/4,5,7,10/3
Total Bet=$32

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:45 AM

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:45 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Saratoga - Race #4

#5 Releasethethunder	Stalker did well to draw outside the chalk, got the comeback last time, and should be primed for a big effort now; look out.
#3 Candy Cornell	Aforementioned chalk will be tough on the drop and may be in front, but s short price makes him an underlay; second-best.
#1 American Rule	Longshot didn't fire from a bad draw last time but will be closer here, and will like the race flow; could blow it up underneath.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 5 but $6 in a short field isn't bad either, especially from this post, so play him aggressively to win and place, and get some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a lot of budget players will be singling the 3, even though the race flow may play against him early.

Saratoga - Race #7

#1 Iaintfraidnoghost	Jeremiah firster goes for a barn that crushed with debuting 2yos here last year, has a slew of works, and lures Jose Ortiz; thinking she's very live.
#9 Lucifers Lair	Pletcher firster did well to draw outside for a potent debut barn, and this doesn't seem to be a loaded field, and she can probably run; plenty scary.
#6 Peachy Queen	Gargan firster (11%) goes for a sharp barn and has some solid works showing, and note Franco is a wild 42% riding for this barn; do not ignore.
Race Summary	Tab the tote here as we kick off the late Pk4, as live money is a good thing at the Spa, and if the money shows on the 1 then you can play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, as well as the Pk4, since she goes for a barn that has some wild success up here with its 2yos last year, and this miss could continue the trend.

Saratoga - Race #8

#2 Saratoga Love	Speedster looked good wiring last time over MCL foes, and while she steps up and faces winners, she has a big tactical edge on her two main rivals; call right back.
#5 Light in the Sky	Dangerous sort was a big 2nd off the break/trainer change last time and will fly home late, but she'll also be spotting a lot of ground to the pick; runs out of room late.
#4 My Sassy Sarah	Stretch runner is another who fits nicely but has no early speed, so like the 5, she too might be left with too much to do in the lane; can't see her getting there in time.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's not a lot here that will keep the 2 from making the front, which will really help her chances, while hurting those of the 4 and 5, so play her in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since a win over two heavy favorites will add plenty of value to both sequences.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:46 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Woodbine - Race #4

#3 Short Summer Dress	Ran the best one of her career last time out on the local turf, and she only tried the main track here in her debut, so there's a chance she can transfer the sharp form from last out to the new footing.
#2 Miss Behave	Posted the maiden win over the local footing last year, and she's got the right kind of tactical pace to get another good trip near the top.
#7 Betwixting	Really put things together nearing the end of last year, and her comeback race suggests she's probably got a useful season in front of her.
Race Summary	Short Summer Dress comes off a solid effort, and while the main worry is that she isn't proven at passing horses, she might be sitting on a big enough effort to handle these at a price.

Woodbine - Race #6

#9 Forester's Turn	Should get a dreamy spying run behind a trio of potential pace players, and he's likely the right one with this group.
#3 Stormfuhr	Longshot doesn't always fire a big one, but he has some past races that would be plenty good to land a spot in the gimmicks. Price chance in the mix.
#6 Buttermilk Pike	Pace has to go, but he's in excellent form with a couple of easy scores under his belt in recent races. All or nothing here?
Race Summary	Forester's Turn should trip out from the wide draw while spying some sharp pace players, and he'd be attractive at something a little bit shorter than his 7/2 ML offering.

Woodbine - Race #9

#5 Speedy Moonlite	Nothing cute here, this guy showed pace and dug in nicely before just giving way last out. Repeat of that would probably do.
#9 Keen Samurai	Drew wide last time out and went sort of evenly in a quick race, and he should offer another nice price.
#10 Last American Exit	Has shown some talent in two races, but he has so far lacked the final bid to get the job done. He's got some upside in this second start off the break.
Race Summary	Speedy Moonlite was quick and game in the debut run, and while the price gets shorter this time around, he's the one to beat off the impressive debut try.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:47 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park - Race #2

#5 Dana Grace	Just missed in a race that came off the turf and was on the board in her last two grass attempts; can adjust to the pace and lands in a good spot.
#1 Get Rewarded	Was too late vs. much tougher last time, drops in class and can be a late threat.
#10 Calentita	Goes for her third straight win and after an 0-for-4 start in California is perfect at Gulfstream; steps up in class but can make a run late.
Race Summary	Dana Grace ran well on grass earlier in the season and is well-spotted under these conditions.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#8 Renaissance Frolic	Was third in a strong race last time and has won four of his last seven; can handle these.
#1 On a Spree	Won four of her last seven and checked in at second last out; pace factor.
#4 Rijeka	Was a convincing winner two back and ran in several starts last year; can run on late.
Race Summary	Renaissance Frolic came up short last time and has be on or close to the lead throughout; has the class to prevail.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#3 Glory of Florida	Was claimed two back by Maker, tired in his 1st for the new connections going long, and turns back to 6.5 furlongs; has won three over the strip and can improve here.
#8 Joe Di Baggio	Shoots for his third straight win, was claimed two back and won in a spot similar as this last time; expect a strong bid.
#6 Lemniscate	Showed speed going longer and will be in the mix from the start; was good enough last year to run in the G2 Amsterdam in which he pressed the pace vs. quality runners.
Race Summary	Glory of Florida should benefit from moving back to a sprint and has experience at this level; can improve in his second for Maker.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:48 AM

Mike Lundin

Jul 19 '20, 11:00 AM in 2h
Soccer | Leicester vs Tottenham Hotspur
Play on: Leicester 0½ -146 at 5Dimes

LEICESTER @ TOTTENHAM FREE PICK JULY 19, 2020
30-10 (75%) +$19,550 All Free Picks YTD!
Tottenham is undefeated with three wins and a draw through its last four games and they enter Sunday only one point behind Wolves for the last Europa League spot. To be completely honest though, that's not really a competition a team of Tottenham's stature should be looking forward to so even though we should see a somewhat motivated Spurs team, I still think they'll struggle to break down a more motivated Leicester side.
The visitors also have plenty to play for as they look to retain a Champions League spot. They came out flat from the extended break but have lost only one of their last four games and defeated a tough Sheffield United team 2-0 last time out.
Additionally, we can note that the Foxes have scored 32 goals in 18 away games in the EPL this season and Tottenham has routinely struggled defensively when facing elite opponents.
Free pick on Leicester +0.5.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:49 AM

Hunter Price

Jul 19 '20, 1:00 PM in 4h
Soccer | Chelsea vs Manchester United
Play on: Manchester United +140 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Manchester United +140

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:49 AM

Steve Janus

Jul 19 '20, 1:30 PM in 4h
Soccer | KR Reykjavik vs Fylkir
Play on: KR Reykjavik -150 at Bovada

1* Free Sharp Play on KR Reykjavik -150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 08:49 AM

Bobby Conn

Jul 19 '20, 2:25 PM in 5h
PGA | Tony Finau vs Danny Willett
Play on: Danny Willett +130 at Buckeye

1* Free Play on Danny Willett +130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 09:00 AM

PITBULL BARKING SOCCER

Sun Jul 19, 2020
Norway - Eliteserien- Aalesunds vs. Stabaek OVER 2.5 -160 (12:00 PM)
USA - MLS - Chicago Fire vs. San Jose Earthquakes OVER 2.5 -171 (8:00 PM)
Iceland - Premier League- Vikingur Reykjavik vs. IA Akranes OVER 2.5 -183 (3:15 PM)
Greece - Super League- PAOK vs. Aris Thessaloniki UNDER 3.5 -155 (1:00 PM)

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 09:02 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Arapahoe Park

Arapahoe Park - Race 5	W/P/S / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta /.10 Superfecta / Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7)
Trial • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 84 • Purse: $2,700 • Post: 2:40P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, THREE YEAR OLDS ELIGIBLE TO THE TRIALS WEIGHT 124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * DE CAPITATOR BAR: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. DG DREAMER: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equib ase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
7	DE CAPITATOR BAR	5/2	3/1
4	DG DREAMER	8/1	5/1
1	I CAN SPLASH	15/1	6/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	I CAN SPLASH	1	15/1	Average	77	74	6.0	0.0	0.0
2	MISHCHIEF MANAGED	2	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	8.4	0.0	0.0
3	LEGENDARY FIND	3	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	6.2	0.0	0.0
4	DG DREAMER	4	8/1	Average	81	68	4.5	0.0	0.0
5	DAISYFAVORITETRICK	5	9/2	Average	76	59	5.0	0.0	0.0
6	JESS A LITTLE GIRL	6	7/2	Average/Trouble-prone	0	0	4.6	0.0	0.0
7	DE CAPITATOR BAR	7	5/2	Fast/Trouble-prone	85	78	3.0	0.0	0.0

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 07-19-2020, 09:03 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Gillespie County Fairground

Gillespie County Fairground - Race 7	WPS / Exacta / Quinella / 1st Half Twin Trifecta (Races 7-8)
Final • 350 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 88 • Purse: $91,400 • Post: 3:30P
QUARTER HORSE 350Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE QUALIFIED AND REMAIN ELIGIBLE. WEIGHT...124 LBS.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * A REBELS SECRET: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. ATTACK AT DAWN: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or ro ute)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. QUIK RETURN: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PYC PAINTED STREAKER: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. JUST CALL M E SIS: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation.
4	A REBELS SECRET	4/1	9/2
2	ATTACK AT DAWN	6/1	7/1
7	QUIK RETURN	15/1	7/1
9	PYC PAINTED STREAKER	5/1	9/1
8	JUST CALL ME SIS	15/1	9/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	PALOMA ON FIRE	1	15/1	Fast	77	67	2.0	0.0	0.0
2	ATTACK AT DAWN	2	6/1	Fast	72	80	2.7	0.0	0.0
3	DAVIDS I OPENER	3	12/1	Fast	72	71	2.2	0.0	0.0
4	A REBELS SECRET	4	4/1	Fast	72	88	1.0	0.0	0.0
5	BLUE CAPO	5	8/1	Fast	72	69	2.0	0.0	0.0
6	ROYAL TALES LBH	6	3/1	Fast	77	72	1.6	0.0	0.0
7	QUIK RETURN	7	15/1	Average/Trouble-prone	72	85	4.0	0.0	0.0
8	JUST CALL ME SIS	8	15/1	Fast	72	76	2.0	0.0	0.0
9	PYC PAINTED STREAKER	9	5/1	Fast	72	75	2.2	0.0	0.0
10	OJD CHAVELA J	10	6/1	Fast	72	71	2.0	0.0	0.0