Service Plays Sunday 7/19/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grand Prairie

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 870y on the Dirt. Purse: $4050 Class Rating: 67

QUARTER HORSE 870Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 LUCKY ROYAL RABBIT 3/1
# 5 LINDA HUNNY (T) 9/2
# 2 LOUISIANA PURCHASE (T) 6/1

LUCKY ROYAL RABBIT looks to be a very strong contender. This horse is highly ranked this field in earnings per start at the distance/surface. Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group recently. With a sound 73 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's outing. LINDA HUNNY (T) - Solid profits have been scored by bettors using this jock and conditioner tandem lately. LOUISIANA PURCHASE (T) - Has formidable front-end speed and will probably fare strongly versus this group of horses. Will make a strong showing versus this lot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #4 - Post: 8:06pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $15,500 Class Rating: 51

Rating:

#2 NYMPHESA (GER) (ML=2/1)
#1 DOUBT (ML=4/1)


NYMPHESA (GER) - Rounding her way back into form. Each of her finish positions is getting better in her recent starts. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +179. DOUBT - I like that this first-timer has been working over the Mountaineer Park oval and makes her debut here today. First timer here. An overlooked stat is the breeding, especially the dam. Dam's foals have won 50 percent of the time as first-timers.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 WATERLOO SUNSET (ML=9/5), #4 POSH TOTTY (ML=8/1),

WATERLOO SUNSET - I find it hard to bet on this vulnerable equine this time out. Make her show you something in a sprint race before you play her in a race of 5 furlongs. Awfully hard to bet on this mount when she hasn't been showing any indications of eagerness recently. POSH TOTTY - Finished sixth on July 7th after the long vacation. Doubtful if there will be improvement in this contest.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Turf Man - NYMPHESA (GER) - Highest average class number puts this filly in a prime position to run well against these horses.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 NYMPHESA (GER) to win. Have to have odds of at least 6/5 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Optional Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12600 Class Rating: 90

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $12,500 WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR OPTIONAL CLAIMING $15,625 ALBERTA BREDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. ALBERTA BRED CLAIMING PRICE $15,625.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 BANDED PEAK 8/1
# 5 DEUCES ARE WILD 2/5
# 3 LONE PIONEER 15/1

I've got to go with BANDED PEAK particularly if the morning line of 8/1 holds. Has formidable speed figs and has to be considered for a bet for this race. With Galviz in the saddle guiding him, this gelding should be able to break out quickly for this event. Has to be carefully examined versus this field displaying strong figures recently and an average Equibase speed fig of 72 under similar conditions. DEUCES ARE WILD - Has run well when running a dirt sprint race. Could best this group of animals based on the speed rating - 81 - of his last outing. LONE PIONEER - Rycroft is very serious with this one, wheeling him back in next to no time. This gelding looks like a playable longshot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

07/19/20, SAR, Race 4, 2.54 ET
07/19/20,SAR,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 CLAIMING. Purse $54,000. (UP TO $9,396 NYSBFOA) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race In 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $50,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	4	Queen's Mason	10-1	Ortiz J L	Levine Bruce N.	FW	48.00	1.85/$1
098.9763	5	Releasethethunder	2-1	Rosario J	Clement Christophe	S	35.29	1.29/$1
098.9698	3	Candy Cornell	1-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Diodoro Robertino	JEC	35.29	1.29/$1
096.4452	1	American Rule	30-1	Cardenas L	Tournas Peter		36.36	1.68/$1
096.3578	6	Twelfth Labour	5/2	Cohen D	Diodoro Robertino		36.36	1.68/$1
096.2666	2	Ryan's Cat	20-1	Carmouche K	Englehart Chris J.	L	36.36	1.68/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 29.55, ROI 1.00/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #1 - Post: 1:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,500 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#3 DARK ALE (ML=3/1)


DARK ALE - Based on this gelding's recent efforts, he should be aided by today's shorter distance.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DIXIE WIL (ML=7/5), #4 HEAD KITTEN (ML=4/1), #5 SOUPER DEPUTY (ML=6/1),

DIXIE WIL - I usually try to beat these types of morning-line choices off the extended layoff. HEAD KITTEN - This gelding garnered a speed figure in his last affair which likely isn't good enough in today's race. SOUPER DEPUTY - This steed will probably be at the back of the pack as this group crosses the finish line.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - DARK ALE - Looks like Berringer has been trying to find the right level for this horse. Took a big drop in class in last race, but returns to a similar level in this affair. What that tells me is he may win today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 DARK ALE to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

PURCHASE

07/19/20, MTH, Race 14, 7.04 ET
07/19/20,MTH,14,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:01:01 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $23,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 118 lbs.; Older, 123 lbs. Claiming Price $30,000, For Each $2,500 To $25,000 1 lb. (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	2	Hyperloop	5-1	Gallardo A A	Dini Michael	JS	60.87	1.68/$1
098.8131	11	Trapped N My Mind	9/2	Peterson F	Cruz Jesus	FC	63.16	1.87/$1
097.4158	3	Passionfortreasure	9/2	Ferrer J C	McCarthy Brenda		38.89	1.21/$1
095.5431	5	Beans N Rice	10-1	Diaz. Jr. H R	Barrera. III Oscar S.	TW	54.84	1.50/$1
095.2517	1	Sudden Brilliance	7/2	McCarthy T	Cruz Jesus	EL	54.84	1.50/$1
095.2116	6	Aiken to Belong	12-1	Peterson F	Berrios Manuel		57.14	1.66/$1
094.7178	7	Giggle Factory	4-1	Garcia W A	Albertrani Thomas		54.84	1.50/$1
094.1466	9	Charlettee	20-1	Mejia T B	Harris Holly L.		57.14	1.66/$1
094.0211	10	Luscious Linda	12-1	Torres J	Einhorn Skip		57.14	1.66/$1
093.8363	4	Cash Code	6-1	Carrasco V R	Trombetta Michael J.		54.84	1.50/$1
093.1657	8	Hey Leocadia(b-)	6-1	Hernandez C J	Kendall. Jr. Dennis S.		54.84	1.50/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 37.14, ROI 0.93/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	11	Trapped N My Mind	9/2	Peterson F	Cruz Jesus	FEC	47.06	1.72/$1
099.0921	1	Sudden Brilliance	7/2	McCarthy T	Cruz Jesus	L	47.06	1.72/$1
097.8080	5	Beans N Rice	10-1	Diaz. Jr. H R	Barrera. III Oscar S.	W	47.06	1.72/$1
097.7861	3	Passionfortreasure	9/2	Ferrer J C	McCarthy Brenda	S	47.06	1.72/$1
097.1493	7	Giggle Factory	4-1	Garcia W A	Albertrani Thomas		40.48	1.18/$1
096.2206	6	Aiken to Belong	12-1	Peterson F	Berrios Manuel		47.06	1.72/$1
095.5860	2	Hyperloop	5-1	Gallardo A A	Dini Michael	JT	47.06	1.72/$1
094.7142	10	Luscious Linda	12-1	Torres J	Einhorn Skip		55.56	1.71/$1
094.5560	4	Cash Code	6-1	Carrasco V R	Trombetta Michael J.		47.06	1.72/$1
094.3251	9	Charlettee	20-1	Mejia T B	Harris Holly L.		55.56	1.71/$1
093.9913	8	Hey Leocadia(b-)	6-1	Hernandez C J	Kendall. Jr. Dennis S.		47.06	1.72/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 30.00, ROI 0.92/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rocky Atkinson
Jul 19 '20, 3:05 PM in 4h
NASCAR | Kurt Busch vs Alex Bowman
Play on: Kurt Busch -130 at betonline

Rocketman Sports FREE Nascar Head to Head Matchup Sunday 7-19-20 #1 Kurt Busch vs #88 Alex Bowman (3:05 PM EST)Play On: #1 Kurt Busch -130 The Nascar Cup boys head to Texas this weekend for a Sunday afternoon race. Kurt Busch has 1 win, 3 Top 5 finishes and 21 Top 10 finishes in his 34 races here in Texas. His average finish is 14.2 at this track. Over the past 6 races here, Kurt Busch has 6 Top 10 finishes with an average finish of 8.5. Alex Bowman has no wins, 1 Top 5 finish and 1 Top 10 finishes in his 9 races here at Texas. His average finish is 25.1 at this track. We'll play Kurt Busch to finish ahead of Alex Bowman today!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gjelstad and Norheim

Sunday, July 19


Bournemouth v. Southampton (9 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +260

Total goals: Over 2.5

Likely score: Bournemouth 2, Southampton 2


Tottenham v. Leicester City (11 a.m. ET)

Money line: Draw +240

Total goals: Under 2.5

Likely score: Tottenham 1, Leicester City 1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

The projected top 10, according to the model:

1. Jon Rahm (2-9)
2. Tony Finau (8-1)
3. Ryan Palmer (14-1)
4. Jason Day (40-1)
5. Danny Willett (25-1)
6. Patrick Cantlay (100-1)
7. Rory McIlroy (200-1)
8. Chez Reavie (150-1)
9. Henrik Norlander (100-1)
10. Matt Wallace (150-1)

The rest of the field's projected finish, according to the model:

11. Gary Woodland
12. Scottie Scheffler
13. Mackenzie Hughes
14. Patrick Rodgers
15. Kevin Na
16. Justin Thomas
17. Matthew Fitzpatrick
18. Brendan Steele
19. Jordan Spieth
20. Patrick Reed
21. Dylan Frittelli
22. Viktor Hovland
23. Lucas Glover
24. Brendon Todd
25. Matthew Wolff
26 Tiger Woods
27 Xinjun Zhang
28 Bubba Watson
29 Carlos Ortiz
30 Sergio Garcia
31 Matt Kuchar
32 Sebastian Munoz
33 Si Woo Kim
34 Steve Stricker
35 Luke List
36 Collin Morikawa
37 Marc Leishman
38 Louis Oosthuizen
39 Xander Schauffele
40 Brooks Koepka
41 Abraham Ancer
42 Tyler Duncan
43 Harris English
44 Erik Van Rooyen
45 Christiaan Bezuidenhout
46 Jim Furyk
47 Lanto Griffin
48 Jason Dufner
49 Corey Conners
50 Adam Hadwin
51 Billy Horschel
52 Ryan Moore
53 Phil Mickelson
54 Scott Piercy
55 Bud Cauley
56 Zach Johnson
57 Denny McCarthy
58 Mark Hubbard
59 Bo Hoag
60 Keegan Bradley
61 Cameron Smith
62 Charles Howell III
63 Kevin Streelman
64 Scott Harrington
65 Keith Mitchell
66 Jimmy Walker
67 Carl Pettersson
68 C.T. Pan
69 William McGirt
70 Stewart Cink
71 Sung Kang
72 Vijay Singh
73 Sepp Straka
74 Joel Dahmen

[golden contender]

Rob V: Sunday Comp Play

Sunday card has a Rare 7* Soccer Game of the Year going early and backed with 2 Perfect Angles. There is also NASCAR and more. One of our Nascar plays below.

The O/Reilly Auto Parts 500 At Texas Motor Speedway at 3:00 eastern on NBCS. Our head 2 Head Driver Selection is on Denny Hamlin he’s been Consistent at all tracks with this race package. He is a master at saving his tires his and a car looks solid overall. Hamlin has three wins with this package. He has won here 3 times Cup Series action. Chase Elliot looks like a big bounce candidate here as he comes in off the million dollar Hall of Fame race win. Now he comes to Texas where he is 0 for 8 with no top 5 finishes in last 6 races. Look for Hamlin to win the head 2 head between the two. See on facebook to jump on a rare 7* Our Highest rated Soccer Play of the Year. For the Comp Play go with Denny Hamlin to finish better than Chase Elliott. Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

NASCAR

Here is Roberts' analysis:

The 18th race of the NASCAR Cup Series season takes us to Texas Motor Speedway on Sunday for the O'Reilly Auto Parts 500, which will be the seventh race of the season on a 1½-mile layout. So far, between the six races run on 1½-mile tracks, there have been six winners. It's also the 13th race of the season using a race package featuring engines that produce 550 horsepower, which Kevin Harvick and Denny Hamlin have used to win seven of the first 12 races. Both of those drivers should be respected this week, but I'm going way off the usual grid and looking to cash the most on a driver at 25-1 odds.

Here's what I'm looking at this week:

1) #10 Aric Almirola (25-1) -- He's my top cash play this week even though all of his wins have come on Superspeedways at Daytona and Talladega. He's got to first beat his teammate, Kevin Harvick, which he failed to do last fall when he led 62 laps and won the second stage. Stewart-Haas Racing cars finished 1-2-3 with Almirola finishing second. But this play is more about a team being on a roll. Last week at Kentucky Almirola led a race-high 128 laps but finished eighth after being bogged down by dirty air in the second half of the race. That race ended a streak of five consecutive top-finishes. SHR equipment and a hot team are a great combination, and I'm going big on it. Who's coming with me?

2) #19 Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) -- He has been the King of half-mile tracks over the last four seasons, but he doesn't have a win so far in the first six races on them and none in the 12 races using the 550-horsepower package. He's never won at Texas, but I'm encouraged by top-fives in two of his last three on 1½-mile tracks. He looked to have the best car late at Kentucky (where he was the runner-up) but couldn't control the restart, allowing Cole Custer to win.

3) #4 Kevin Harvick (13-5) -- He went his first 29 races at Texas without a victory, but in the last five, he's won three times, which coincides with the track's new surface. He's got top-10 finishes in his last 11 races at Texas since joining Stewart-Haas Racing in 2014. All four of his wins this season have come with this week's race package. I'll use him more as an insurance policy in my betting strategy where I'll look to recoup half of my bankroll if he wins. I won't be rooting for him, but I respect what his team keeps giving him.

4) #11 Denny Hamlin (11-2) -- He's a three-time Texas winner, the last coming last spring. He's got three of the 12 wins this season using this week's race package, as well as a runner-up at Charlotte and Pocono, a fifth-place at Atlanta and the first Darlington race, and a sixth at Fontana. He also was leading at The Brickyard with six laps to go until a tire blew. He saves his tires better than anyone, and he's got the best set-up among Joe Gibbs cars. He has four wins on the season, and Kyle Busch has zero. Hamlin has to be in any betting mix this week.

5) #12 Ryan Blaney (11-1) -- He's been the steady driver at Team Penske, and, since joining the team, he's got both of his career top-fives at Texas. Even with lesser equipment in 2017 driving the No. 21, he won the first two stages and settled for 12th after leading a race-high 148 laps. He also won a 2018 Xfinity Series race at Texas, but the reason to bet him to win this week is five straight top-six finishes on 1½-mile tracks.

6) #9 Chase Elliott (10-1) -- He was 13th or worse between both Cup races at Texas last season, leading 35 laps in the spring. But before that, he was 11th or better in all six of his starts there. He comes off a huge All-Star Race win using the 750-horsepower package, but has been great with the 550-horsepower package as well, with his only points-paying win (Charlotte) and runner-up (Homestead).

7) #18 Kyle Busch (6-1) -- He's a three-time Texas winner in the Cup Series, the last coming in 2018, and he's got 13 other wins between the Xfinity and Truck Series. But he has zero Cup wins this season. I feel he's going to win soon, but he can no longer be among the top two or three drivers to invest in anymore. I'm thinking of dumping him altogether in my weekly betting portfolio until he wins a race.

8) #1 Kurt Busch (25-1) -- His lone Cup win at Texas came in 2009, but he's on a roll, finishing ninth or better in his last five starts there. He also has been seventh or better in four of the six races on 1½-mile tracks this season. I'll be on him in driver matchups.

9) #2 Brad Keselowski (11-1) -- He's a two-time Texas winner in the Xfinity Series but doesn't have any in the Cup Series. Since his last Texas top-five in the Cup Series in 2017, he's had four finishes outside the top-10, including three of them finishing 33rd or worse. He has two wins this season, one of them being the Coca-Cola 600, which was on sister-track Charlotte.

10) #20 Erik Jones (40-1) -- This guy loves Texas, and I'm on him to win at such high odds. He's finished 10th or better in his last five Texas Cup starts, which includes three straight fourth-place finishes. He's a three-time Texas winner in the Xfinity Series, doing so against a bunch of Cup drivers like Kyle Busch. He also won a 2015 Truck Series race there.

11) #88 Alex Bowman (30-1) -- Bowman has me perplexed. It was kind of the same thing after a runner-up at the 1½-mile track at Kansas and then winning on the 1½-mile track at Chicagoland. He'd finish fifth at Texas as his only top-five on a 1½-miler after winning. In 2020, he won at Fontana, was runner-up at Darlington and then had no top-fives in any other race using the same race package. As his odds rise, I keep throwing him in my betting mix believing he'll roll again, and I keep losing with him.

12) #22 Joey Logano (11-1) -- His lone Texas win came in 2014, but it's been one of his most consistent tracks with finishes of seventh or better in his last eight starts. He was fourth last fall during the playoffs. The problem with him this week is that this race package has been horrible for him since the restart to the season; he has no top-fives in 11 starts using it since winning at Las Vegas.

13) #41 Cole Custer (100-1) -- He won at Texas in a 2018 Xfinity Series Race and makes his Cup debut there on Sunday. The strength of Stewart-Haas Racing's set-up showed last week when Custer won at Kentucky, at 300-1 odds. The race before that using the same package he finished fifth at Indy. The win wasn't a fluke.

14) #14 Clint Bowyer (60-1) -- He led laps in both Texas races last season, tying a career-best runner-up in the spring, and then ran 11th in the fall. He doesn't have any top-fives using this week's race package but is still attractive because he's got SHR equipment.

15) #47 Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (125-1) -- He doesn't have any top-10s in 14 Cup starts at Texas, but he does have a 2012 Xfinity Series win there. He's got two top-fives between the six races on 1½-mile tracks.

16) #48 Jimmie Johnson (25-1) -- He's the King of Texas with seven wins, 16 top-fives and 1,152 laps led in 33 Cup starts. No one in history has done better than JJ. But he doesn't have any top-fives in his last 10 races using this week's race package.

17) #8 Tyler Reddick (75-1) -- His last three races using this week's race package have produced top-10 finishes with a best of fourth-place at Kentucky last week. He's on the upswing, and I'm sure with a rookie winning at Kentucky he'll be a popular bet because of the recent top-10s.

18) #42 Matt Kenseth (100-1) -- He is one of two active drivers to average better than a 10th-place average finish at Texas. The veteran has 14 top-fives in 30 Cup starts, which includes two wins. He showed some speed at Indy using this week's race package, finishing second.

19) #3 Austin Dillon (100-1) -- He has a 20th-place average finish in 14 Cup starts in Texas with his only top-10 coming in 2018. But he's not a bad addition to your fantasy lineup or betting matchups this week because he's finished 14th or better in all six races on 1½-mile tracks.

20) #21 Matt DiBenedetto (30-1) -- He's had a 28th-place average finish in nine Cup starts at Texas while driving underfunded cars. But he's been close to winning twice with this week's race package that produced a second at Las Vegas and a third last week at Kentucky. But 30-1 odds seem like an overreach from the Bookmaker, knowing that no one is betting him at 30-1 or 50-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Soccer and Horse Picks 7/19

Sun Jul 19, 2020
Ramos let us down in UFC but we had a really good night overall. Did pretty well with the Horses as we hit a $42.60 exacta in the Saratoga 1st and Paris Lights wins the 10th. Dr Post came in 3rd at the Haskell. Here's two races plus a soccer play.

100* Granada CF +110

Saratoga Race 1
#3 Dr Shane $10 wps
$2 exacta box 3-1-5

Saratoga Race 8
#2 Blame Debbie $10 wps
$2 exacta box 2-1-8

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jul 19 '20, 3:00 PM in 3h
Soccer | Getafe CF vs Levante
Play on: Getafe CF -132 at 5Dimes

FREE PLAY on Getafe CF -132

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 7/19/20

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July 19, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Sunday, July 19, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 1:10 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Dowse’s Beach; 3-Dr. Shane

Forecast: Dowse’s Beach, a 9-year-old pro with six wins from nine starts over the local lawn, had a prep at Belmont Park last month in his first outing since November and was predictably a tad rusty when pressing the pace and then weakening late to wind up a respectable third. He’ll be fitter and tighter today and will be reunited with “win rider” I. Ortiz, Jr., so the M. Maker-trained gelding deserves the edge on top. Dr. Shane probably is worth tossing in as a saver or a backup. Freshened since April, the Freud gelding has several back speed figures that are good enough to win at this level and should be heard from late.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Lazarus Project; 5-Deep Sea; 7-Hardcore Folklore

Forecast: At first glance Deep Sea looks pretty solid in this $12,500 claiming extended sprint; he was a decent runner-up despite traffic trouble in a similar affair last month at Belmont Park and has been first or second in 15 of 31 career starts. However, he’s winless since December of 2018 and his lack of tactical speed makes backing him at a short price somewhat problematic. He can win, but he doesn’t have to. Hardcore Folklore, third without mishap in the same race Deep Sea exits, is a perfect one-for-one over this track and distance but is another who has to come from out of it. Like Deep South, this Curlin gelding could use some help up front. Lazarus Project projects to have enough early speed to be within range, and in his second off a layoff and the drop to his lowest level ever the veteran gelding should return to good form. Show bettors should give him a good look; he’s finished third 19 times in 52 career starts. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics in what otherwise for us is a pass race.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 PT. Grade: X
Single: 1-Dovima

Forecast: Dovima was very well-meant in her debut last month at Belmont Park in a similar turf miler for maiden fillies and mares but lost by a head-bob in a promising run for C. Brown. The stable hits with an amazing 35% with second-timers, so we’re expecting the daughter of Union Rags to step forward from her good rail post under J. Ortiz and be along in time at what seems certain to be odds-on. We’ll pass the race but use her as a no-value rolling exotic single.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 PT. Grade: C
Use: 5-Releasethethunder; 6-Twelfth Labour

Forecast: After finishing a fair third at Delaware Park in his first start since October, Releasethethunder drops into a seller for the first time and should have every chance to regain his winning form with a good stalking trip outside for Clement/Rosario. Not sure we totally trust him, though (two wins, seven placings) and the barn’s record with the second-off-the-layoff angle isn’t great. Twelfth Labour, is a first-off-the-claim for R. Diodoro (31%, massive flat bet profit with this angle) but the main concern is that because he’s usually sluggish early and with a one-paced, grinding style, the son of Quality Road always has found this six furlong trip a bit sharp. In a race that is otherwise best left alone, we’ll include both in our rolling exotics but not with any real degree of confidence.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Martinez; 3-Wicked Easy; 8-Competitive Hero

Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint five and one-half furlongs on grass in the first leg of the 20 cent Empire-6, which offers a jackpot carryover pool of $175,795. It’s a wide open affair; we’ll try to get by using just three. Martinez is an intriguing first-timer from Shug’s barn with a work tab that shows a bullet five furlong gate drill (1:00 flat, fastest of nine) last month over the Belmont Park main track. The Twirling Candy colt draws the rail, and if he breaks with his field he’ll more than likely contest the pace. At 5-1 on the morning line, we’ll put him slightly on top. Wicked Easy has done some decent work in the a.m. for C. Clement, whose stats with debut runners are nothing short of impressive (26% with a powerful flat-bet profit in a significant sample). His main guy J. Rosario takes the call, so this son of Wicked Strong is a “must use.” Competitive Hero disappointed in his debut when establishing the pace before fading to fourth while late changing leads as the favorite but could improve a bunch for the B. Cox stable, which hits at a strong 25% with second time starters. Perhaps the switch in surface will help, though his pedigree hardly screams turf.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 PT. Grade: C+
Use: 5-Financial System; 7-Sentry; 9-Kroy; 11-Zero Gravity;

Forecast: This grass grab bag for $50,000 claimers looks fairly treacherous; we’ll go four deep and hope to survive and advance. Sentry likes to win races and has shown an affinity for the Saratoga lawn. He’s been away since October but Shug is solid with comebackers (19%), the work tab is promising, and the race is loaded with front-running types that should set things up nicely for his deep closing kick. J. Rosario, who rode him to victory last time out in a starter’s allowance affair, will give him the patient ride he needs, so we’ll put the veteran Smart Strike gelding on top. Zero Gravity is another stretch-running type with a chance to make a dent in the final furlong. His recent Churchill Downs races were solid and earned numbers that put him in the hunt, however, he’ll probably need to negotiate some traffic along the way. Financial System, away since January following a win in a first-level allowance affair, shows up unprotected today but has run well over the course in the past and has shown the ability to win on the lead or from the second flight. The works should have him fit enough. Kroy has numbers and back class that can win at this level but he’s always been a need-the-lead type and is hooking plenty of speed today. Can he stalk and win? He never has. We’ll include him on a few tickets just in case he manages to inherit the lead but our pace projection isn’t seeing it.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 PT. Grade: B
Use: 1-Iaintfraidofnoghost; 5-Capstone Girl; 9-Lucifers Lair

Forecast: Lucifer’s Lair is first-timer by Quality Road for the T. Pletcher/I. Ortiz, Jr. team (27% with a flat-bet profit) that seems certain to get plenty of backing in what appears to be a fairly wide open main track sprint for juvenile fillies. The work tab since she arrived from South Florida looks workmanlike at best, but she did handle Gulfstream Park debut winner Son of a Beast is a workout at Palm Beach Downs and looked pretty decent doing it (see video). Iantfraidofnoghost breezed a furlong in a sharp :10 flat at the OBS March sale and then brought $190,00 at auction. The daughter of Ghostzapper hails from a barn that does well with first-timers, so we suspect this filly will have a say in the matter if she can leave cleanly from the rail. Her stablemate (and workmate) Capstone Girl is a Hard Spun homebred and is worth some attention as well, especially at 8-1 on the morning line. These are the three we’ll be including in our rolling exotics; feel free to go deeper if your budget allows.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 PT. Grade: C
Use: 2-Saratoga Love; 4-My Sassy Sarah; 5-Light in the Sky

Forecast: Light in the Skyran out of room when missing by a neck in a similar turf sprint for first-level state-bred fillies and mares in her first outing in nine months and not much more will be needed to beat this field, though as a late-running sprinter she’ll always have to worry about traffic trouble. The same can be said for My Sassy Sarah, third in the same race ‘Sky exits in her sophomore debut and another that is eligible to step forward in her second-off-a-layoff for a barn that does quite well (21%) with this angle. Though she exits a maiden $40,000 affair, Saratoga Lovelooked good winning geared down gate-to-wire last month and did so with a speed figure that makes her highly competitive right back despite the tougher assignment. She’s facing considerably more heat today, though. In a race we’ll otherwise watch, we’ll use all three in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 PT. Grade: B
Use: 3-Lashara; 4-Queens Embrace; 6-Stunning Sky

Forecast: Lashea is a lightly-raced and progressive daughter of American Pharoah with speed figures that are rising with each outing. Her style suggests she’ll enjoy this nine furlong trip, so with another bit of improvement the M. Casse-trained filly might be able to tag the speed in this year’s edition of the Lake Placid S.-G3 for 3-year-old fillies. Stunning Skyexits a series of tough stakes races and most recently earned a career top number when sixth (beaten four lengths) in the Regret S.-G3 at Churchill Downs last month. This looks like an easier task and she’s reunited with I. Ortiz, Jr. (who’s perfect in two starts when riding her), so the daughter of Declaration of War seems the likely favorite and one to beat. The main concern is her complete lack of tactical speed, which makes her pace and trip dependent. Queens Embrace toyed with a much softer allowance field at Monmouth Park 16 days ago and earned a competitive number with this group. She’s won five of eight starts and doesn’t know that she once ran for maiden $16,000. At 6-1 on the morning line you have to find room on your ticket for her.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 PT. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Control Group; 5-Shadow Rider; 7-Malibu Pro

Forecast: Malibu Pro is a tough old gelding seeking his first win this year and based on his recent speed figures the Canterbury Park shipper may have found a proper spot to get back on track with this class drop to the $16,000 level. Dangerous on the lead but capable of stalking and pouncing if the race flow dictates, the R. Diodoro-trained son of Malibu Moon lands the barn’s go-to rider, D. Cohen. Horses that are taken for $32,000 and run for half that amount three races later aren’t often good gambles but this barn isn’t afraid to drop and cash and we suspect that’s the situation here. Control Group, a winner of 11 races from 33 starts and twice successful over the Saratoga main track, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr. in his second off the layoff for Rudy and is strictly the one to beat. His uncoupled stable mate Shadow Rider is a deep-closing class dropper that could be dangerous with some help up front, so we’ll toss him in on a ticket or two as well.