Service Plays Thursday 7/23/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Jul 23 '20, 7:30 PM in 7h
NASCAR | Alex Bowman vs Kurt Busch
Play on: Alex Bowman +105 at 5Dimes

1 Dimer on Alex Bowman +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Alexander

Jul 23 '20, 10:08 PM in 10h
MLB | SFO vs LAD
Play on: UNDER 8 -104

1* MLB FREE PICK on Giants/Dodgers UNDER 8
Thursday's free MLB pick is on the Giants/Dodgers UNDER 8. I feel we are getting some great value here on the UNDER. The ball never carries well at night at Dodgers Stadium and it certainly doesn't figure to be carrying well given it will be in the low 70's/high 60's during game time.
Kershaw takes the mound for LA and he's been exceptional both on Opening Day and against the Giants. Kershaw owns a 1.05 ERA over 8 starts on Opening Day. Only 2 times in those 8 starts has he allowed more than 1 run. Kershaw also owns a 1.74 ERA in his career against the Giants (over 340 innings of work).
Cueto will go for the Giants and while he had a 5.06 ERA in 2019, he only made 4 starts. He's far enough removed from Tommy John surgery that I think people are sleeping on him. The guy is only 34, so plenty still left in the tank. Play UNDER 8!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies - 7/23/

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July 23, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga
Thursday, July 23, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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RACE 1: Post 12:50 ET. Grade: X
Use: No Play/Pass

Forecast: This first race is carded for Steeplechase runners. We will pass the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:21 ET. Grade: C
Use: 3-Wonder In; ; 5-Carthon

Forecast: Restricted (nw-3) $14,000 claimers meet over six furlongs in the first flat race on the program. It’s a challenging affair in which many of the main contenders have question marks. Wonder In will receive plenty of play and is good enough to win at this level but has a disturbing pattern. The Uncaptured gelding was claimed for $25,000 after a sharp score at Gulfstream Park in February but then disappeared and returns on the drop for a barn that has weak stats with layoff runners. We’re unsure of his current condition. Similarly, Carthon, away since February and dropping considerably in class after being claimed for $50,000 in November, returns for an outfit that shows average stats with this angle. Additionally, his lifetime record of 2-for-23 doesn’t inspire confidence but based on pure numbers he’s a threat. We’ll include these two in our rolling exotics but the best course of action may be spread deeper or better yet pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post 1:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Mo Normal; 4-Stunning Princess; 5-Uptown Flirt

Forecast: Here’s our first chance of the young season to see 2-year-old fillies compete over a distance of ground on grass. Stunning Princess has done some very good work in the a.m. leading up to her debut, and while the D. Gargan barn doesn’t have great stats with debut runners this $95,000 yearling purchase should be ready to show her best first crack out of the box. A recent turf breeze around dogs over the Saratoga training turf course (4f, :49b, second fastest of 33), catches the eye, and with the barn’s “go-to” rider M. Franco taking the call the daughter of Cairo Prince will offer excellent wagering value at or near her 4-1 morning line. Mo Normal, from the C. Clement barn, hasn’t done anything noteworthy in the morning but this barn has superior stats with first-time starters so she’ll get plenty of play on that angle alone.Uptown Flirt breezed well during the OBS March Sale while displaying a nice stride and good athleticism, and while we can’t say she has a grass pedigree the daughter of Speightster definitely has some run and should be plenty fit for W. Mott. At 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in as well.
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RACE 4: Post 2:29 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Fresco; 2-Dixie Cannon

Forecast: Even though she’s still a maiden after three starts, Fresco is listed as the even money morning line favorite in this state-bred 3-year-old filly hundred grander over a middle distance on grass. Nosed out in her last start at a short price and before that fourth when equally heavily-backed, the daughter of Freud has the type of winning connections (C. Clement/I. Ortiz, Jr.) that always attracts play, and on pure form and relatively strong speed figures she’s clearly the one to beat. Perhaps offering better wagering value will be Dixie Cannon, a Laurel invader with form as a juvenile that makes her a viable alternative to the favorite. The K. Breen-trained filly was far back last month in her first outing since October, but that race came vs. much tougher second-level allowance open fillies and mares and even in defeat produced a career top number. She has a bit more tactical speed than Fresco, so we’ll give the Maryland shipper a slight edge on top while including both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 5: Post 3:02 ET. Grade: B
Use: O’Trouble; 4-Ahead of Plan; 7-Instinctive Rhythm

Forecast: Older maidens sprint six furlongs in what appears to be a stronger than par race for the level. The first-timer Instinctive Rhythm, so impressive in his preview (:10 flat) at the 2019 OBS March Sale, finally makes it the post and should be an extremely live item for the G. Weaver barn, which boasts exceptional stats with first-time starters. The son of Tapiture displayed plenty of ability in the morning last summer at Saratoga as a 2-year-old before being stopped on, and the $350,000 auction purchase, now a gelding, has done nothing but fire bullets at Belmont Park while preparing for this affair. Ahead of Plan, another new gelding, ran very well in his debut over the local main track last year before tailing off and then being sent home. The C. Brown stable has superior stats with layoff runners (29%) and this son of Big Drama – who burned so much money in his three prior outings - could be hard to beat if runs back to his highly-rated debut in which he led from the start until worn down right at the wire while well clear of the rest. O’ Trouble, third in both of his starts to date, clearly has some talent but probably can’t beat a real good maiden. His numbers are decent, so we’ll use him as a back-up just in case ‘Rhythm or ‘Plan don’t fire.
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RACE 6: Post 3:37 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Bareeqa; 8-Simplicity; 9-Kitten by the Sea

Forecast: Kitten by the Sea is listed at 6-1 on the morning line in this contentious first-level allowance inner turf miler for fillies and mares and at that price she offers a bit of a gamble. Winner of her last pair vs. moderate claimers, most recently vs. $40,000 (nw-2) rivals at Gulfstream Park in February, she returns protected for new trainer T. Pletcher off a claim and shows a bullet half mile training track drill (4f, :49b, fastest of 13) at Belmont Park last week to have her on edge. The outside draw isn’t great but she’s shown the ability to stalk and pounce, so given that type of trip the daughter of Kitten’s Joy, with rising numbers in each outing, may be able to successfully stand the raise in class. Bareequa is a tough-as-nails 7-year-old mare with 13 wins from 44 starts, including three over the Saratoga turf course, and is the likely favorite and one to beat. She has the ideal second-flight, stalking style that should allow I. Ortiz, Jr., to move when he wants to. The concern is that on pure numbers she’s really not that much better, if at all, than our much younger top selection. Simplicity represents stranger danger. The French-bred filly makes her U.S. debut for the powerful C. Clement/J. Rosario team as a first time Lasix user with form in European stakes races that should make her highly-competitive at this level. You have to include her.
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RACE 7: Post 4:46 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Fierce Lady; 6-Puffery; 10-Bertranda

Forecast: Fierce Lady went stale last winter and was stopped on, but if she can return off the bench for new trainer R. Rodriguez with her best form the daughter of Competitive Edge could spring a mild surprise in this state-bred second level allowance extended sprint for fillies and mares. Both of her races last year over the Saratoga main track were excellent, including a win at this six and one-half furlong trip in the Seeking the Ante S., and because she won her debut by six lengths (with a career top speed figure) we know she can fire fresh. The work tab isn’t fancy but is good enough. Bertranda is dangerous and a “must use” in rolling exotic play, even though she is far more likely to finish second or third (20 times out of 50 starts) than win. The veteran mare picks up I. Ortiz, Jr. and should be prominent throughout and have every chance. Puffery is another that generally settles for secondary awards (two career wins with 13 seconds/thirds) but gets off the rail and projects to settle into a nice stalking spot. At 8-1 on the morning line she’s worth including on a ticket or two.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Modesto; 3-Union Colonel; 4-French Reef

Forecast: French Reef was well-backed in his debut last November but after cutting out good fractions weakened to wind up a close sixth in a better than par race for the level The Irish-bred gelding returns off the nearly nine month vacation in a more suitable sprint for C. Brown (superior with layoffs) and sports a recent bullet five furlong training track turf workout (5f, 1:00.3b, fastest of 11) to indicate he’s spot on in this open maiden grass dash. Union Colonel, second in his last three but beaten at 3/5 in his most recent start at Gulfstream Park in February, returns for M. Casse (average stats with layoffs) and projects to be close up throughout and have every chance. He’s okay on numbers – competitive but not great – but with a good series of workouts at a training center could be a better type this time around. Modesto is an intriguing first timer from the W. Ward barn with a series of workouts at Keeneland likely to have him plenty fit. He’s an Uncle Mo colt and therefore should handle any surface, so at 6-1 on the morning line under I. Ortiz, Jr. he’s probably worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 9: Post 5:17 ET. Grade: X
Use: 1-Wendell Fong; 4-Honest Mischief; 6-Captain Scotty

Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this three-other-than allowance dash but otherwise pass the race. Honest Mischief (8/5) is the morning line favorite after finishing a distant second to the emerging top class sprinter Volatile in the listed Aristides S. at Churchill Downs in his comeback last month. The son of Into Mischief has strong figures, gets an extra half furlong to work with, and should have every chance to tag the leaders. Captain Scotty returns to his preferred surface – dirt – and tackles easier while landing the cozy outside post. The P. Miller-trained gelding won the Palos Verdes S.-G2 at Santa Anita earlier this year, shows a bullet three furlong blowout at Monmouth Park (:33.4h, fastest of 17) four days ago, and should be able to inherit a comfortable pace-stalking/pressing position in a race projected to have modest early fractions. Wendell Fong joins the R. Diodoro barn in his first outing since finishing fifth in the Count Fleet H.-G3 at Oaklawn Park in April. His two 2020 outings weren’t productive but both came in stakes races that earned strong numbers, so against this lesser group the son of Flat Out could easily return to top form for a barn that strikes at 25% with layoff runners. He could find himself in a good second flight, ground-saving position, ready to pounce when called upon.
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RACE 10: Post 5:48 ET. Grade: B
Single: 11-Financialstability

Forecast: Financialstability is a single in the nightcap; not so much because his form jumps off the page but because the competition in this restricted (nw-2) $16,000 seller is so bleak. The big class drop – this is his first start for a tag – was overdue and we suspect this 5-year-old New York-bred will improve considerably against modest group. Drawn comfortably outside and with speed figures that make him a standout, the C. Brown-trained gelding should be able to settle in the second flight and then produce his run outside, in the clear, and when he’s called upon. At 2-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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[FATMANWINS]

ATS
4 Dodgers over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root
Millionaire NYY

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Adam Goodwyn

THE MONEYLINE GUY

YESTERDAY 5:02 PM

After graduating Vanderbilt in economics, Adam built a sports betting model that specializes in money-line plays. His model returned $1,742 for $100 players last MLB season, and was up $5,725 in the current NBA season when play halted in March. Adam primarily bets on underdogs, as his model more frequently finds value there. Thus, he is able to generate big profits despite a win-loss record below 50 percent.

WASHINGTON +120
N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
I'm taking the Nationals. My model has the champs winning 49.1 percent of the time. The spread (+120) currently translates to a 45.5 winning percentage, thus, my model sees an edge of 3.6 percent. Take the value in the first game back.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony George

Action Bet

3 Units - (#901) NY Yankees (-130) over Washington *7:05 EST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

MLB 3-Unit Play. #901. Take Over 7 Runs Washington Nationals vs. New York Yankees (Thursday @ 7:08pm est)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

John Bollman
THE EXECUTIVE
11:59 AM

OVER 7.5 N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT

The Yankees scored the most runs per game last season at 5.77 runs per game, while the Nationals ranked sixth with 5.31 runs per game. The Yankees benefit from this layoff because they are now fully healthy. The Nats lost Anthony Rendon but added Carter Kieboom and Starlin Castro, look for this game to hit the over.


John Bollman
THE EXECUTIVE
11:56 AM

WASHINGTON +119

N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
This is a World Series matchup possibility to open the season with the defending Champion Nationals at home. The Nats were 14-6 with 6.0 runs per game in interleague games last season, and Max Scherzer is 1-2 with a 1.27 ERA in four career opening day starts. Howie Kendrick will get in the lineup with a DH and the Nats have a much-improved bullpen with Will Harris. This game should be closer to 50-50, take the dog at home.

11-2 IN LAST 13 WAS ML PICKS | +1100


Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
10:32 AM

WASHINGTON +119

N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
We have no idea what kind of impact not having fans in the ballpark will have on home-field advantage in 2020, but I don't care. How often do you get a chance to take Max Scherzer at home as an underdog? This is a principle play, plain and simple.


Kenny White
WIZARD OF ODDS
YESTERDAY 6:00 PM

UNDER 7.5 N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT

Every year pitchers are ahead of hitters to start the season. This year there will be an even bigger difference for at least two weeks since hitters have only had a handful of at-bats this summer. Gerrit Cole, who makes his debut for the Yankees, and his mound opponent, Max Scherzer, both rank among the top five pitchers in baseball. Cole also has the help of the best bullpen in baseball. Meanwhile I think Scherzer's bullpen is going to be one of the best in the NL this year. If everyone was in midseason form I would make this total 7 Under -130, but with the hitters behind the pitchers I'm making the total 6.5 Under -130. Take the Under.

4-0-1 IN LAST 5 WAS O/U PICKS | +402


Mike McClure
MONEY
YESTERDAY 5:21 PM

WASHINGTON +119

N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
Are the Yankees the best team in baseball? Maybe. Is Max Scherzer the best pitcher in baseball? Perhaps! Home field advantage clearly takes a hit this season, but Max shouldn't be +119 at home, even against Gerrit Cole. I have Washington winning 50.2 percent of simulations thanks to very strong ratings on Max Scherzer, largely due to his slider that has a ridiculous 28 percent swinging strike rate. I'm happy to invest in Max Scherzer maybe the only time he's a home dog all season.

17-11 IN LAST 28 WAS ML PICKS | +425

13-10 IN LAST 23 NYY ML PICKS | +346


Adam Goodwyn
THE MONEYLINE GUY
YESTERDAY 5:02 PM

WASHINGTON +120

N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
I'm taking the Nationals. My model has the champs winning 49.1 percent of the time. The spread (+120) currently translates to a 45.5 winning percentage, thus, my model sees an edge of 3.6 percent. Take the value in the first game back.


Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
MON 7/20

N.Y. YANKEES -138

N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT
The rich get richer as the Yankees added perhaps the best pitcher in baseball in Garrit Cole. They have the best lineup and top bench in baseball. Max Scherzer is always tough, but the Nats lost one of the best hitters in Anthony Rendon, who will be impossible to replace. Take the Yanks on the moneyline.


Stephen Oh
DATA SCIENTIST
TUE 7/14

OVER 7.5 N.Y. YANKEES @ WASHINGTON | 7/23 | 7:08 PM EDT

The model has the total going Over 7.5 runs in 70 percent of simulations for the 2020 season opener. Yes, it's two of the best starting pitchers in the majors in the Yankees' Gerrit Cole and Nationals' Max Scherzer, but neither will be going more than 3-4 innings in their first start of the year out of the pandemic shutdown. Plus, these are two of the most loaded lineups in MLB.

8-3-1 IN LAST 12 NYY O/U PICKS | +465

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
SAT 7/18

OVER 7.5 SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/23 | 10:08 PM EDT

Clayton Kershaw has stayed Under in 31 of his 45 starts against the Giants, but I cannot see how the opener stays Under only because Johnny Cueto is going to have a rough time, and it’s not only because his final start of 2019 saw him last only two innings and give up five runs. He had a horrible spring in March, allowing nine runs in 6.1 innings over three starts. The Dodgers lineup should send him out early again. I'm taking the Over.

21-12-2 IN LAST 35 SF O/U PICKS | +827


John Bollman
THE EXECUTIVE
12:00 PM

OVER 8 SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/23 | 10:08 PM EDT

The second matchup on Opening Day is a feature between veterans Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw. Johnny Cueto only made four starts at the end of last season after missing the whole year. He was 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA and gave up 9 runs in 6.1 IP in Spring Training. The Dodgers are absolutely stacked this season after adding superstar Mookie Betts. I wouldn’t be surprised if they get close to the run total themselves.


Tom Fornelli
#TRUSTTHEPROCESS
10:36 AM

OVER 8 SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/23 | 10:08 PM EDT

Have you seen San Francisco's projected pitching staff for 2020? We can sum it up best by pointing out that Johnny Cueto is the team's Opening Day starter. Cueto's had a great career, but the great part of it has been over for a while now. The bullpen behind him won't be much better. Throw that up against this Dodgers offense, and we might reach the Over without any help from the Giants.

10-3 IN LAST 13 LAD O/U PICKS | +701


SDQL Gurus
SERIOUS SCIENTISTS
10:09 AM

OVER 8 SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/23 | 10:08 PM EDT

The last time Clayton Kershaw faced the Giants, the Dodgers lost 5-4. We expect good run support for Kershaw here, as LA is 7-0 to the Over with Kershaw when they lost the last time he faced the opponent, scoring an average of 8.57 runs by themselves. In addition, LA is 8-0 to the Over with Kershaw in a series opener, going over by an average of 4.94 runs per game. As for the Giants, we see that they are 6-0 to the Over when Johnny Cueto starts in July, going over by an average of 3.33 runs per game.


Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
MON 7/20

L.A. DODGERS -1.5

SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS | 7/23 | 10:08 PM EDT
The Dodgers are stacked. Clayton Kershaw has owned the Giants in his career, going 23-11 with six complete games and five shutouts. The Dodgers added Mookie Betts in the offseason; this lineup is going to score a ton of runs. The Dodgers' pen is loaded, which will be key early on in this shortened season. The Giants are going to struggle offensively, and missing clubhouse leader Buster Posey is only going to make matters worse. Johnny Cueto has filthy stuff but hasn't been 100 percent healthy and started just four games last year. The Dodgers should jump on him early and often. Play LA on the run line at -139.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kershaw Scratched


Dodgers placed him on the injured list with back stiffness

Recalled right-handed pitcher Dustin May

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Covers
4% Over in Giants Game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc

7 Unit Aric Almirola over Kurt Busch-120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

LV Wolf

Wash
Wash over
CHI Sox over 31 season wins

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SDQL Gurus

OVER 8 SAN FRANCISCO @ L.A. DODGERS