Saturday 7/25/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Jul 25 '20, 2:10 PM in 3h
MLB | Twins vs White Sox
Play on: White Sox +105 at Mirage

TWINS @ WHITE SOX FREE PICK JULY 25, 2020
The Minnesota Twins put a 10-5 beating on the Chicago White Sox in the season opener.
I think runs will be harder to come by for the Twins here against Dallas Keuchel who was 8-8 with a 3.75 ERA in 19 starts with the Atlanta Braves last season. The left-hander owns a 3.60 ERA in six career appearances against the Twins and he has a lot of confidence in the White Sox's bats. "Our lineup is as good as anybody's in baseball," Keuchel said. "We just have a lot of young guys who need to prove some things or prove some things again in order to get some street cred."
The Twins counter with right-hander Randy Dobnak who made only five starts during his rookie season in 2019. He'll make a spot start in the rotation slot and I don't expect much from Dobnak.
The White Sox can't be happy with Friday's result, and I expect them to bounce back here as they have their ace on the mound and get to hit off an inexperienced pitcher.
Free pick on Chicago White Sox.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Teddy Davis

Jul 25 '20, 2:15 PM in 3h
MLB | Pirates vs Cardinals
Play on: Pirates +136 at Buckeye

I realize the Pirates aren't a team you are running to bet, but here I like them. I just question how much is left in the tank after 15 years. Wainwright still has the name but I think extremely over valued at this price. The Pirates were close to taking down Flaherty the ace. Williams last 3 starts against the Cardinals he has gone 17 innings allowing just 6 runs and striking out 18 with a 1-0 record. The price is right here to back the dog

[Can'tPickAWinner]

GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE MLB WINNER 7/25/20
GAME: Angels @ Athletics
TIME: 4:10 PM EST
Free Pick: OVER 8.5

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Gerry “BIG CAT” Andino!
FREE MLB PICKS
Marlins @ Phillies
TIME: 4:05 PM EST
PICKS: OVER 9

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp Pick
FREE play for Saturday, July 25, 2020
take : 930. San Diego Padres (Lamet)

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Sports Action 365

FREE MLB WINNER 7/25/20:
PLAY Twins @ White Sox OVER 10, GAME TIME 2:10 PM EST

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The Last Call

Saturday's Free Play: Detroit Tigers + 195

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Del Mar/Saratoga Wagering Strategies - 7/25/20

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July 25, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Del Mar
Saturday, July 25, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

First Race – Post Time: 2:00 PT
6 – Caisson (7/2)
Has trained okay on dirt – not great, but good enough – for his racing debut but we suspect the $340,000 Keeneland yearling purchase will be much more comfortable and effective running long on the lawn, conditions that he’ll find today in his racing debut. By War Front and the second foal from E. P. Taylor S.-G1 winner Curvy, the R. Mandella-trained colt lands F. Prat and faces a field in which the known element doesn’t inspire. At 7/2 on the morning line he’ll offer value both in the win pool and as a rolling exotic single.
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Third Race – Post Time: 3:00 PT
6 - Lambeau (3-1)
Lightly-raced and progressing with each start, this J. Shirreffs-trained colt earned a career top speed figure in winning a first-level allowance main track miler at Santa Anita in May and trained consistently well since, so despite the raise in class the son of First Samurai looks capable of scoring right back. In a race that doesn’t have a whole lot of early speed, this devout front-runner should make the running without much pressure and then be tough to catch under regular rider M. Smith. He’s 3-1 on the morning line; let’s hope we can get it.
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Fifth Race – Post Time: 4:00 PT
8-Never Be Enough (9/2)
This razor sharp Bay Area invader moves up from the $40,000 claiming ranks into this first-level allowance affair, and at this marathon turf distance the English-bred mare – a former hurdler – should be right at home. She’s strong on speed figures, sports a healthy work tab since raced, and projects to be close up throughout in a race that should be slowly run early. At 9/2 on the morning line the M. Padilla-trained mare offers excellent wagering value both as a win play and as a rolling exotic single.
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Seventh Race – Post Time: 5:00 PT
5-Mystery Man (3-1)
Was well-meant in his debut sprinting on dirt last month but may have been a tad short, and after pressing the highly-regarded Cezanne to the head of the lane, lost his steam and weakened to finish fourth, beaten almost six lengths. The son of Violence shortens up a furlong, switches to grass, retains M. Smith, and seems likely to improve considerably with that bit of experience behind him. There’s good value here at or near his morning line of 3-1.

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Today’s Saratoga Analysis & Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: B
Use: 1-Speightstown Gal; 7-First Appeal

Forecast: Speightstown Gal is a progressive filly with rising speed figures and the potential to be a decent New York-bred sprinter. Her recent maiden win on grass at Belmont Park was visually pleasing, and with another forward move the daughter of Cairo Prince appears capable of winning on the raise. Two easy breezes since raced should have her on edge, and if the G. Weaver-trained sophomore can avoid trouble from the rail she’ll be hard to contain in the final furlong. First Appeal is a first-off-the-claim for Rudy, switches to I. Ortiz, Jr., and is a veteran mare with all six of her career scores on grass, two of which have been accomplished over the local lawn. This raise to the $40,000 level can be taken as a sign of confidence, so at 6-1 on the morning line she’s worth including somewhere on your ticket.
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RACE 2: Post 1:43 ET. Grade: B+
Use: 2-Vivazano; 5-Munnings Muse

Forecast: Munnings Muse flashed plenty of ability when a good second in her debut last year behind the very fast Fierce Lady – she was more than nine lengths clear of the third place finisher who won her next start – but then had to be stopped on. She returns more than a year later in this New York-bred maiden special weight sprint that has nothing remotely as fast in it as ‘Lady, so if she returns as well as she left the G. Gullo-trained sophomore will be hard to beat. The work tab looks healthy and a recent gate blowout (3f, :36.3bg) should have her on edge. J. Rosario, who rode her last year, returns, so at 5/2 on the morning line she’s the obvious top pick. Vivazano ran well in her debut when setting the pace and then hanging on reasonably well to wind up third while earning an okay speed figure. A subsequent outing 15 days ago was disappointing (fourth, beaten 10 lengths) but it’s possible she didn’t care for the sloppy surface, so we’ll toss her in on a small ticket as a back-up or a saver while reserving the main push to Munnings Muse.
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RACE 3: Post 2:18 ET. Grade: X
Single: 5-Sistercharlie

Forecast: This is an unplayable race but an interesting one to watch, with the top-class Sistercharlie making her first start in her six-year-old season. She has a history of running super fresh, having won the Diana S.-G1 last year over the local lawn following a similar nine month layoff and the Jenny Wiley S.-G1 at Keeneland in 2018 off an extended vacation as well. The workouts aren’t fancy but the pattern is steady and healthy and should have her plenty fit enough. Starship Jubilee has won five of her last six starts and projects to have an easy trip as the controlling speed. Overall, she’s won a remarkable 17 of 35 career races and is a credit to her connections but beating Sistercharlie under any circumstance is an extremely difficult challenge.
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RACE 4: Post 2:51 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 3-Lady C; 4-Gone Glimmering; 7-Spanish Point


Forecast: We’ll go three-deep in this restricted (nw-3) $16,000 claiming extended sprint for fillies and mares, a challenging but playable affair. The T. Amoss barn is represented by two major players, with a slight preference on top to Lady C., a Thistledown invader with speed figures and a stalking/closing style that is ideal for this six and one-half furlong distance (she’s 2-for-2 lifetime at the trip). Though dropping into a seller for the first time since being claimed for $30,000 last November, she remains above that price in a sign of confidence and projects to enjoy a good second flight trip and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Her uncoupled stable mate Gone Glimmering, in her third start off a layoff with rising numbers, was almost six lengths clear of the rest when second in a recent $40,000 affair at Churchill Downs last month and this slightly shorter trip may be a bit more suitable. Spanish Point lands the cozy outside draw and though she was pulled up in her last outing in Florida and returning to the claiming ranks, the daughter of Creative Cause shows a sharp five furlong drill (1:00b, third fastest of 20) over the local main track to indicate all is well. In a field without too much pace she should fold into an ideal stalking position and then have her shot when it counts.
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RACE 5: Post 3:24 ET. Grade: B
Single: 9-Sir Alfred James

Forecast: Sir Alfred James was a stylish debut winner last month at Churchill Downs in a maiden $50,000 dirt sprint that makes him eligible to this starter’s allowance grass dash. If the son of Munnings can transfer his dirt form to turf, he can score right back, and a nice breeze over the Saratoga turf training track just six days ago (view workout) indicates gives hope that he’ll handle the lawn just fine and justify his 2-1 morning line favorite’s role. Other contenders include Big Wonder and Standup, but the former is 1-for-25 lifetime and hardly one to trust while the latter is stuck outside with no tactical speed, and that’s problematic over this course and distance. You may feel more comfortable including them as back-ups in rolling exotic play but our strategy is to to get home ‘James as a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post 3:57 ET. Grade: C+
Use: 1a-Bronzed; 5-Aristocratic; 8-Mojovation

Forecast: This race is loaded with question marks, so tread lightly. Mojovation is a first-off-the-claim for D. Gargan (53% with a massive flat-bet profit) and that’s normally an automatic angle, but the stable is off to a slow start this meeting (winless in 11 starts) and this gelding is dropping into a $25,000 claimer after being haltered for $40,000 in late May at Churchill Downs. Mixed signals notwithstanding, the son of Quality Road, a previous winner over the Saratoga main track, gets top billing but certainly not as a single. A bullet workout over the local training track (4f, :48b, fastest of 13) in late June followed by an equally noteworthy half mile breeze 10 days ago in :47 flat, (fourth fastest of 35) gives reason to believe the veteran sprinter is perked up and ready. Bronzed, away for almost a year and making the transfer from the suspended J. Servis to R. Astras, was a listed stakes winner two races back and returns for a moderate tag, hardly a sign of confidence. Obviously fast enough if he has at least one good one in him, the son of Fed Biz can be included in rolling exotic play but certainly not with a high degree of confidence. Aristocratic projects as the quickest of the quick and may be a bit fitter today after flashing speed but weakening in a $32,000 claimer earlier this month in what was his first outing since February. The C. Englehart barn has good stats with the second-off-layoff angle (21%) so this Malibu Moon gelding could stick better today. He’s more than fast enough to win at this level when he’s on his game.
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RACE 7: Post 4:32 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Don Juan Kitten; 7-Proven Strategies; 8-Lonesome Fugitive

Forecast: The is a contentious first-level allowance inner turf miler for 3-year-olds that projects to have a good-to-fast early pace that should promote the closing types. Lonesome Fugitive, a lightly-raced and promising colt, will appreciate any help he can get up front after breaking his maiden in clever fashion in early June at Belmont Park in a race that had creepy-crawler early fractions before winding up being plenty fast late. Having to rally against the grain always makes things more difficult for a deep closer but this Irish-bred colt accelerated with purpose and was up in time to earn a very strong speed figure. A healthy series of easy recent breezes should have him on edge for C. Brown, and with regular rider J. Ortiz staying aboard the son of Zoffany looks tough right back despite the class hike. Proven Strategies returns to the allowance ranks after performing quite well when runner-up in a pair of turf stakes at Gulfstream Park, most recently behind the high class Decorated Invader in the Pennine Ridge S.-G2 last month. The son of Sky Mesa should be on or near the lead throughout and if he doesn’t get caught up in a pace jam should be in the thick of it throughout. Don Juan Kitten, beaten a neck in a similar non-winners of two turf miler at Belmont Park last month, isn’t quite as fast on figures as the two other main players but is gradually improving and may go better with patient tactics. He’s worth including on a ticket or two as a saver.
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RACE 8: Post 5:07 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1a-Money Moves; 6-Prioritize; 7-Leitone

Forecast: Here’s a difficult race, a nine-furlong main track second-level allowance affair offering several possibilities. Money Moves is undefeated in two starts – both wins earlier this year at Gulfstream Park in one-turn events – and today stretches out to a distance his pedigree says he should love. He’s fast on numbers and has plenty of room for further development, but he’s a lightly-raced 3-year-old tackling some tough, seasoned, and professional veterans. If he can beat this field and remain undefeated he’ll certainly be given the opportunity next time to win a good race vs. his own age group, something like the Jim Dandy Stakes in early September. First things first, though, and the son of Candy Ride should be forwardly placed, perhaps stalking the logical pacesetter Leitone, and then have his chance to kick on with it from the quarter pole home. Leitone, claimed in his last pair and now in the O. S. Barrera III barn, will take them as far as he can, and if not policed may produce an upset on the raise for his new connections. First or second in 14 of 25 starts and a winner in his only previous outing over the Saratoga main track last year, the Chilean-bred horse is a “must use” at 8-1 (though we suspect he’ll go a bit lower). Prioritize, runner-up in a similar event at Belmont Park last month with a competitive number, may be the most dangerous of the closing types. He’s kind of a one-paced grinder but with help up front should make his presence felt in the final furlong.
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RACE 9: Post 5:43 ET. Grade: B+
Single: 3-Simply

Forecast: Simply, the subject of a recent Black Book segment (view video), won cleverly at first asking two-turning at Sam Houston in March and then tackled significantly tougher foes when facing first-level allowance New York-bred company sprinting last month at Belmont Park. The son of Lemon Drop Kid found the six furlong trip too sharp, but he did pick it up nicely through the lane to wind up a strong third before galloping out very well. Stretching out again and switching to J. Rosario, the S. Asmussen-trained gelding has had four easy breezes to tick him over for what should be a major effort. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 10: Post 6:16 ET. Grade: X
Single: 4-Volatile

Forecast: Volatile tackles real horses today but he’s pretty real, himself. Moving up from listed stakes company into the Vanderbilt S.-G1, the son of Violence earned a Breeders’ Cup-quality speed figure in most recent demolition and anything close to that performance today will give the others no shot, especially in race in which he can be the controlling speed if he wants to be. Obviously, at 4/5 on the morning line he’ll offer no wagering value but we can make him a rolling exotic single and just enjoy the show.
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RACE 11: Post 6:49 ET. Grade: B
Use: 5-Timeless Journey; 6-Micromillion

Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden $40,000 claiming inner turf middle distance affair for fillies and mares and should boil down to two main players. Timeless Journey (J. Rosario/C. Clement) goes for the hottest jockey/trainer combo at the meeting and has other credentials that make her strictly the one to beat. She didn’t run badly in a much stronger straight maiden affair in her debut last month at Belmont Park (sixth, beaten 3 � lengths) and since has returned to breeze nicely to indicate improvement is likely. On pure numbers she’s a strong fit and has upside that most of the others don’t. Micromillion, away since February and adding blinkers and trying grass for the first time, is another class dropper with winning connections (J. Ortiz/T. Pletcher) and is the one to fear most. She’s not particularly fast on numbers but hasn’t taken a backward step and could be a better type this time around for a barn that hits at exceptional 24% with layoff runners.
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sean Murphy

Jul 25 '20, 4:10 PM in 5h
MLB | Angels vs A's
Play on: A's -129 at 5Dimes

Saturday MLB Free play. My selection is on Oakland over Los Angeles at 4:10 pm et on Saturday.
We won with the A's last night but needed a grand slam in extra innings to do so. I won't hesitate to go back to the well with them again on Saturday afternoon as they send Sean Manaea to the hill against Dylan Bundy, who will be making his Halos debut.
Manaea made only five starts in an injury-plagued 2019 campaign, but certainly pitched well, working at least into the sixth inning in four of those five outings and allowing just 16 hits and four earned runs in 29 2/3 innings of work. In the lone start where he didn't go more than five innings he gave up just one hit over five scoreless frames against the Yankees. His strikeouts per nine innings ratio was up considerably compared to 2018 even though we were talking about a small sample size.
Bundy has seemingly gotten worse with each passing season over four big league campaigns. He owns a career 4.67 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. Last season he issued an ugly 3.2 walks per nine innings - his highest number since the 2016 season when he issued 3.4. Bundy has been tagged for a whopping 70 home runs over the last two seasons and I look for the A's to tee off on him again here today. Take Oakland (8*).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dustin Hawkins

Jul 25 '20, 5:00 PM in 4h
NASCAR | Brandon Jones vs Ross Chastain
Play on: Ross Chastain +110 at 5Dimes

1 Dimer on Ross Chastain +110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Jones

Jul 25 '20, 7:15 PM in 6h
MLB | Yankees vs Nationals
Play on: Yankees -125 at 5Dimes

Jack’s Free Pick Saturday: New York Yankees -125
The Yankees are nearly fully healthy to start the 2020 season, which makes them very scary for opponents. They have Stanton, Judge and Sanchez healthy to start the season, which they did not have for big stretches last year.
Now the Yankees send James Paxton to the mound and hope he can continue his dominance from the final two months of last year. He went 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA last season, but 10-0 with a 2.51 ERA in his final 11 starts.
The Nationals will be a good fade in the early going after winning the World Series last year. They certainly aren’t nearly as potent offensively to begin the season after losing their best hitter in Anthony Rendon, and now Juan Soto is out with COVID-19. Bet the Yankees Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Cole Faxon

Jul 25 '20, 8:00 PM in 7h
Soccer | Club Leon vs Guadalajara
Play on: Club Leon +173 at 5Dimes

FREE PLAY on Club Leon +173

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Price

Jul 25 '20, 9:10 PM in 8h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Diamondbacks +122 at pinnacle

Dave’s Saturday Free Play:
1* on Arizona Diamondbacks +122
The Key: Expect the Arizona Diamondbacks to pick up their first win of the season Saturday after dropping Game 1 Friday to the Padres. Dinelson Lamet is 0-1 with a 14.05 ERA and 2.04 WHIP in 2 lifetime starts against the Diamondbacks, yielding 13 earned runs in 8 1/3 innings. Robbie Ray is 5-5 with a 4.28 ERA and 1.29 WHIP in 16 lifetime starts against San Diego. He struck out 20 over 11 1/3 innings in his final 2 starts against the Padres in 2019. We’re getting the better starter as the underdog in this matchup tonight. Take Arizona.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jack Brayman

My free play is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Yankees, and I want you to list the scheduled starters: Stephen Strasburg and James Paxton.

We already know the Nationals are going to be out for revenge for Thursday's season-opening loss that was cut short by rain, but something tells me Strasburg is looking to make a statement considering he probably should have been the Opening Day starter.

I mean, the right-hander is coming off a historic 5-0 postseason, which earned him the 2019 World Series Most Valuable Player Award. This will be his first start against the Yankees in his career, so I fully expect him to be fueled mentally for this game.

As for Paxton, it's his second season with the Yankees, and while I know he set career highs in wins (15) and starts (29) last year, this is a tough chore with the Nationals chomping at the bit.

Take the Nats and list both.

2* NATIONALS (Strasburg over Paxton)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

Comp play here on Saturday is the Yankees over the Nationals.

New York took Thursday's rain-shortened season opener in D.C. by a 4-1 count, as Gerrit Cole did his thing and stopped the Washington attack in its tracks.

With Ryan Zimmerman opting out of this 60 game campaign, Anthony Rendon not being resigned and Juan Soto currently quarantined, the Nats offense is certainly not the same offense that was on the field last October when they won it all.

James Paxton needs to step up in this abbreviated season and be a solid #2 starter behind Cole and tonight he does just that for Aaron Boone's club as they look to remain perfect this new year.

Stephen Strasburg definitely placed his name in Nationals lore with a storybook season last year and I don't doubt he will be tough again this season, but this New York lineup just does not have many weak spots one through nine.

Giancarlo Stanton looks like a new man these days, so let's lay a little road wood and side with the Yankees over the Nationals in game two of this three game opening weekend set.

3* N.Y. YANKEES