Monday 7/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Canterbury Park - Race #5

#3 Date Quick	Donlin firster goes for a barn that shows a debut winner, lures Arrieta, and has some snappy works in a race where only the favorite looks tough; call at first asking.
#6 Haddy Up	Deserving heavy favorite was a speedy 2nd on debut and was bet that day too, but the price will be short and the pick looks like she can run some; backwheel time.
#5 Boozin At Bongos	Underlay was a distant 3rd to the chalk last time, so she needs to improve some 6 lengths, while facing a potential top new shooter as well; using underneath only.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 3, as you'd like to see her live and taking money, especially into the teeth of the heavy favorite, and it that's the case you can play her to win and place, and especially to kick off the 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since budget players might be singling 'Haddy, which means a win by the pick would knock out a good percentage of the tickets right off the bat.

Canterbury Park - Race #6

#2 Irish Halo	The chalk just missed on debut, drew perfectly, meets a few she just handled, and should only build off that trial run; imposing favorite.
#1 Jollyville	Stretch runner closed to be 5th behind 'Halo in her turf debut, is another who drew well, and will be a price too; can close for a share.
#7 She's Fire and Ice	Logical sort was a troubled and closing 4th to the pick last time and certainly figures, though this wide draw isn't ideal; mixed signals.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 2 but 9-5 doesn't seem bad based on what she just did, and where she might be going to play her aggressively to win if the tote allows, while getting some built-in value by singling her in the 10% takeout Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as she just looks too good for this modest group.

Canterbury Park - Race #8

#4 Morning Report	Price player ran well in a comeback that you she needed off the September break, should only improve off that, and has a versatile style to be able to be placed anywhere; upset special.
#6 Bee Bit	Classy favorite will be bet hard, as she's been facing much better of late, but she also regressed mightily last time and now drops, so she could be going the wrong way; trying to beat.
#2 First Hunter	Capable miss beat the pick last time, so obviously she hits hard here, and this post is a coup as well, but she also has no upside, and will be an underlaid price too; still, figures in the mix.
Race Summary	The price will certainly be right on the 4, as she could get overlooked with the 6 especially, but even the 2 taking a lot of play, but her return was encouraging and she should improve here too, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the 10% takeout Pk5, and the late Pk4 as well, as a win would go a long way in blowing both sequences up.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#3 Lucky at Justice	Tactical sprint type might get a really good run of things while just behind the pace, and she has been in with some good groups. Price should be right.
#7 Walkin Princess	Can't argue with anyone landing here after this one just romped home with better last time out, but there is some chance that she'll take a step back off the big run.
#2 Pride of Wilko	Has been in with better in recent starts and loves the local footing with 11 wins here, but her two 2020 runs haven't quite been up to her 2019 form, so she's potentially dicey at a modest price.
Race Summary	Lucky at Justice should offer a fair price here and can settle in just behind the leaders today, and if Walkin Princess takes a step back off the big run last out, she can capitalize.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#2 Echo Alpha Six	Has run well in both turf tries and should be in line for a great trip from close range. Think he's a player on the hike.
#4 Kitten's Man	Recent form stacks up well here, and he's bred to love the new footing on both sides of the pedigree. Underlay?
#7 Apple Empire	Rolled home in the local debut, but the rest of his form isn't much to look at, so I'll let him prove to me today at a likely unappealing price.
Race Summary	Echo Alpha Six can get the right kind of run here, and there are a couple of other players in here who figure to get bet below fair value, potentially leaving this guy at a playable price.

Mountaineer - Race #9

#1 Go For Four Frosty	Big step forward when adding blinkers last time out, and I'll take that one at face value and give him the nod to turn the tables on the guy who just beat him last out.
#4 Titere	Good effort going short last out, but at the end of the day he's still a 13-start maiden who would feel like a wild underlay at something like the 2/1 ML price. He can win here, but I'll take a principled stand against.
#8 Old Fort	Has some chance to wake up in the local debut, and outside of that clunker last out, his form is pretty consistent. That said, he's making his 20th start today and probably gets bet a bit.
Race Summary	Go For Four Frosty showed some forward ability when stretching out and adding blinkers last time out, and he's right in the mix again tonight with something similar -- and probably at a better number than the other two listed players here.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #2

#2 Chop Chop Charlie	Finished with interest on the Ellis turf last out and has been running vs. good company; moves to dirt and is a big threat on either the front end or from just off it.
#3 River Echo	Has taken six of his last 10 and comes off an easy score over this strip; Contreras barn continued to be hot (26 percent) and the Contreras-jockey Esquivel combo has won 4 of its last 10.
#6 Here's Carlos	Can benefit from running far back off a lively pace and can make a big late run; usable in the exotics.
Race Summary	Chop Chop Charlie's last race was from off the pace but he also can be in close attendance of the pace; a legit threat to the heavy favorite.

Indiana Grand - Race #4

#7 Take Charge d'Oro	Score in two of his last three, including the Trail's End at Oaklawn and should be able to run on well on the turf.
#1 Applicator	Was up in time in four of his last seven and is hard-trying veteran upper-claimer; rallied from off a slow pace last time and adjust to any pace.
#8 Marv's Magic	Came from off the pace and finished 3rd last out; can do better with a more legit pace and his best gives him a chance at a healthy price.
Race Summary	Take Charge d'Oro is a solid router and has won a race on the turf; comes off a win at Belterra and this well-traveled runner has been effective at several tracks.

Indiana Grand - Race #6

#2 Color Me Pretty	Didn't fire and finish mid-pack in his first here this season and she had been off since March; ran well on Fair Grounds turf and improve in this one.
#1 Sister Kitten	Was moving at the end of his last two but settled for second in each; overdue to get her second career win and has a big chance here.
#3 Lady Oxbow	Ran fifth at Keeneland last out and has been in some good races with good results; has the class to be a strong player.
Race Summary	Color Me Pretty needed her last one and has a decent chance to run well at a big price.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Canterbury Park

Canterbury Park - Race 5	Win, Place &Show / $1 Exacta / $.50 Trifecta / $.10 Superfecta $1 Daily Double / $.50 Rolling Pick 3 (Races 5-6-7) 10% Takeout Pick 5 (Races 5-9)
Maiden Special • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 67 • Purse: $30,000 • Post: 6:40P
FOR MN-BRED MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. HADDY UP is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HADDY UP: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equiba se Speed Figure at the distance/surface. MY MISS MARILYN: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. Horse ranks in the top three in Tr ackMaster Power Rating.
6	HADDY UP	8/5	8/5
4	MY MISS MARILYN	7/2	5/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	HADDY UP	6	8/5	Front-runner	66	61	28.4	57.8	55.8
4	MY MISS MARILYN	4	7/2	Front-runner	57	51	25.9	44.2	39.2
5	BOOZIN AT BOZOS	5	5/2	Trailer	66	47	0.0	44.6	40.6
2	CLASSIC WHISKEY	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	25.6	31.3	23.3

Unknown Running Style: SURELY A LEGEND (8/1) [Jockey: Harr Kelsi - Trainer: Donlin Jr Larry D], DATA QUICK (6/1) [Jockey: Arrieta Francisco - Trainer: Donlin Larry D].

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 1	Daily Double 1-2
Allowance • 1 1/16 Miles • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 71 • Purse: $15,200 • Post: 2:45P
FOR NATIVE THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 118 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 26, 2020 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Dominant Front-runner. PERSISTENTE is the Dominant Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * PERSISTENTE: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination win percentage is at least 30. HARLAN'S IMAGE: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
2	PERSISTENTE	2/5	9/5
5	HARLAN'S IMAGE	4/1	7/2

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
2	PERSISTENTE	2	2/5	Front-runner	67	72	68.7	68.7	65.7
5	HARLAN'S IMAGE	5	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	66	67	45.7	59.2	53.7
1	EL AVENTURERO	1	3/1	Stalker	69	57	51.9	51.9	45.4
3	CANTALICIO	3	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	63	58	44.5	44.5	37.5
4	MR. BENITEZ	4	20/1	Alternator/Trailer	0	0	5.7	5.7	0.0

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Allowance - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $32500 Class Rating: 85

FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 27, 2020 ALLOWED 3 LBS. A RACE SINCE APRIL 27, 2020 ALLOWED 5 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 1 RECORDER 3/1
# 4 RETALIATED 8/1
# 3 JAZZY JUSTIN 5/1

My selection in this contest is RECORDER. Ran a sharp last race. Overall the speed figures of this equine look quite good in this contest. Has a very solid record at the distance and surface, which makes me like this gelding. RETALIATED - Has longshot possibilities and could win at a big price. Has been consistently racing well as of late. JAZZY JUSTIN - He has solid class ratings, averaging 90, and has to be carefully examined in here. Formidable average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this horse a definite contender.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Presque Isle Downs - Race #2 - Post: 5:10pm - Maiden Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $12,000 Class Rating: 64

Rating:

#5 BETTYS BOMBER (ML=4/1)


BETTYS BOMBER - Dropping in class figure points from his Oct 14th race at Presque Isle Downs. Based on that data point, I will give this animal the advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 TOUCH OF LA GREY (ML=2/1), #6 MIKE MIKE (ML=5/2), #3 JUST A JOKER (ML=6/1),

TOUCH OF LA GREY - This mount hasn't been near the winner at the finish line recently. Should have at least finished in the money in the last 60 days in a sprint event to be worth a shot at short odds in a sprint. MIKE MIKE - 5/2 is not enough of a value to take on most any entrant that has run poorly in back to back efforts. The speed ratings are going downward. I'm not throwing a few bucks at this less than sharp equine off of that trend. JUST A JOKER - Didn't finish in the money on June 24th at Presque Isle Downs. Followed it up with another less than stellar performance. This horse ran a mediocre speed rating last race out. He shouldn't run better and will probably lose in today's race running that figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #5 BETTYS BOMBER to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	5 with 1
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Maiden Special - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $27,500 Class Rating: 50

Rating:

#9 IT'S A MANS WORLD (ML=3/1)
#6 TAPSHOT (ML=9/2)


IT'S A MANS WORLD - Looking at today's class rating, this thoroughbred is meeting an easier field than last time out at Thistledown. I like to see consistency in a racehorse. Look at this gelding's PPs. Almost always in the money. This equine ran well at Thistledown on June 29th. Bounced in the last race, but should rebound today with a sharp effort. This horse is number one in earnings per race entered. He looks sharp in today's race. This gelding is rounding his way back into shape. Should race well today. TAPSHOT - When Bracho and Radosevich work together on equines the win pct has been fantastic at 32. Have to like this gelding today. If you take a look at his PP lines you see a definite trend, getting closer with each and every race. The July 13th race at Thistledown was at a class level of (58). Dropping to a lower class rank considerably, so he should be in a good spot to take this race. Last out at Thistledown this horse finished ahead of today's M/L favorite. Potential play if the public follows the morning line odds. This gelding is obviously on the improve with speed figures of 14, 44, 47 last three out.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 GIFT OF OAK (ML=4/1), #4 WAPAKONETA PHIL (ML=6/1), #1A CAPTAIN WES (ML=6/1),

GIFT OF OAK - Last performed on July 13th at Thistledown, finishing fifth. Unlikely to advance off of that effort today. WAPAKONETA PHIL - Would be taking an underlay on this participant at the likely odds of 6/1. CAPTAIN WES - Difficult to bet on any entrant to turn things around if there is no value to taking the risk. Today's affair is 5 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't finished in the money in a short distance event in the last sixty days. Not the best of omens.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - TAPSHOT - Racing pattern would suggest this horse is fit for today's race. Should do well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#9 IT'S A MANS WORLD is going to be the play if we are getting 3/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [6,9]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Arapahoe Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 7 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5220 Class Rating: 69

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD NON WINNERS OF TWO RACES LIFETIME. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,500.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ORDAINED CAT 5/2
# 6 FULL OF GOLD 9/2
# 7 TRE 8/1

ORDAINED CAT has a quite good shot to take this race. Will most likely come out sharp - I have liked the way this gelding has moved promptly to the front end recently. The speed figure of 62 from his most recent race looks solid in here. Must be considered given the class of races run lately. FULL OF GOLD - Is worth serious consideration and may be a wager - strong speed figures (60 average) at today's distance and surface as of late. With Lopez uptop him, this gelding will probably be able to break out quickly in this event. TRE - Solid average Equibase Speed Figures in dirt sprint races make this pony a solid choice.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

07/27/20, DMR, Race 2, 2.30 PT
07/27/20,DMR,2,1M [Turf] 1:32:01 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $51,000 (plus up to $15,300 CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON $15,000 ONCE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $40,000. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Other Than Maiden, Claiming, Or Starter At A Mile Or Over Allowed 2 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (Maiden Races And Claiming Races For $32,000 Or Less Not Considered) (Horses Which Have Started For $25,000 Or Less In Their Last 3 Starts Least Preferred). (Rail at 18 feet).
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Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Gallovie (GB)	7/2	Hernandez J J	Baltas Richard	JW	38.98	1.52/$1
098.4520	6	Gypsy Spirit (GB)	3-1	Prat F	Powell Leonard		36.92	1.52/$1
098.4470	7	Zest	10-1	Cedillo A	Shirreffs John A.	TL	38.98	1.52/$1
097.4922	1	Quick (GB)	5/2	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.	FC	38.98	1.52/$1
097.1716	3	Muchly (GB)	4-1	Van Dyke D	Callaghan Simon		36.92	1.52/$1
093.5937	8	Saints Paynter	15-1	Fuentes R	Lerner Andrew	SE	36.92	1.52/$1
092.9613	2	Miss Flawless (FR)	12-1	Valdivia. Jr. J	Cerin Vladimir		36.92	1.52/$1
092.7288	4	Lavender (IRE)(b+)	15-1	Pereira T J	Chew Matthew		36.92	1.52/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.92/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	5	Gallovie (GB)	7/2	Hernandez J J	Baltas Richard	W	54.55	3.08/$1
098.4101	1	Quick (GB)	5/2	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.	SFC	34.48	1.41/$1
098.2132	6	Gypsy Spirit (GB)	3-1	Prat F	Powell Leonard	J	54.55	3.08/$1
097.7745	7	Zest	10-1	Cedillo A	Shirreffs John A.	TEL	34.48	1.41/$1
096.9129	3	Muchly (GB)	4-1	Van Dyke D	Callaghan Simon		37.08	1.56/$1
094.4539	8	Saints Paynter	15-1	Fuentes R	Lerner Andrew		54.55	3.08/$1
093.2660	4	Lavender (IRE)(b+)	15-1	Pereira T J	Chew Matthew		39.74	1.74/$1
092.5965	2	Miss Flawless (FR)	12-1	Valdivia. Jr. J	Cerin Vladimir		39.74	1.74/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 42.86, ROI 1.57/$1

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Roz Wins

Roz's MONDAY, July 27, 2020 Free Pick
MLB
910. Tampa Bay Rays -1.41 (3:40 pm PT / 6:40 pm ET)

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Golden Dragon

FREE WINNER for Monday

Miami Lopez -143

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Arthur Ralph

MON Phillies w/ Arieta +125

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Steve Janus

Jul 27 '20, 7:10 PM in 14h
MLB | Royals vs Tigers
Play on: Tigers -132 at 1BetVegas

1* Free Sharp Play on Tigers -132

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Andre Ramirez

Jul 27 '20, 7:10 PM in 14h
MLB | Mariners vs Astros
Play on: Astros -1½ -135 at Mirage

MLB 150 DIME GAME
ASTROS -1.5
James will be taking the mound for the Astros. James won 7-0 in his last matchup against the Mariners. The Astros are on a 28-11 run against the Mariners. This game should be a breeze for the Astros! Lay the run line here.