Saturday 8/1/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Roz Wins

Roz's SATURDAY, AUGUST 1, 2020 Free Pick
NBA
725. LA Lakers -4 (5:30 pm PT / 8:30 pm ET)

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Atlantic Sports

Saturday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Chicago Cubs - 165

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Sharp Bettor

SharpBettor FREE Play Saturday, August 1, 2020
MLB
Take: (962) Twins -1.25 (4:10 pm PT / 7:10 pm ET)

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Easy Money Sports

Lee's Free Early Saturday Selection Is

DENVER -1½

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Nevada Sharpshooter

Your free winner for Saturday : UTAH/OKLAHOMA CITY OVER the total of 216½

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Hawkeye Sports

Saturday's Free Pick: Los Angeles Dodgers - 140

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Arthur Ralph

SAT Braves w/ Touussaint-121

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Teyas Sports

FREE PICK 8/1 CHICAGO CUBS-150

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Vegas Steam Line

Your free winner for Saturday: HOUSTON (Greinke) -155 over LA Angels

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High Stakes Syndicate

Free Selection for Saturday: Boston Red Sox + 180

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Kenny Towers

Your Free Pick for Saturday: Philadelphia/Indiana OVER 216

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NHL Playoff Picks and Predictions for Saturday August 1
Matt Blunt

To be played in Toronto and Edmonton

NHL Favorite
Best Bet

Matchup: Winnipeg vs. Calgary
TV-Time: NBCSN, 10:30 p.m. ET

Favorite Pick: Calgary -130

The series price and this Game 1 line still feel rather disrespectful to a Calgary team that was the top seed in the West just a season ago. Calgary appears to be a team that the majority of the market could potentially be sleeping on.

The Jets are just too depending on their goalie doing all the heavy lifting for them, and should that go south early in this series, this series probably won't be a long one. The goaltending edge easily goes to the Jets though and that is the resistance that's found in this and the series lines.

But one rough playoff series last year and Calgary has gotten cast aside as a contender, as this year's team was bitten by a bit more bad luck in close games. But I remember a Tampa Bay team who was the #1 seed in the East last year and were actually out in the first round before the Flames. They aren't getting cast aside as a legitimate contender like the Flames are.

Calgary's much better then the current #8 spot suggests of them, and they ambush Hellebuyck with everything they got en route to a convincing Game 1 win.


NHL Underdog
Best Bet

Matchup: Florida vs. N.Y Islanders
TV-Time: NBCSN, 4:00 p.m. ET

Florida Panthers +100

Not sure there is a true “best” underdog do take on this opening slate, so I'll go with the one that the oddsmakers have currently tabbed as the most likely to actually win with the shortest price. The Panthers will have to get some strong goaltending in this entire series if they want to advance, and Bobrovsky's had a history in his career of stealing games with his play.

The Islanders are a squad I'm not sure has enough scoring to go really all that far in this restart, and while that's not specific to this single game, fading the Islanders as a team I don't believe will be long for the bubble stay is the general approach I'm going with in the opener.


NHL Over-Under Total
Best Bet

Matchup: Montreal vs. Pittsburgh
TV-Time: NBC, 8:00 p.m. ET

Montreal/Pittsburgh Over 5.5

On paper this series really does set up like it's Carey Price vs the Penguins attack, but Montreal's got some guys that can put the puck in the net too. The Habs also have next to nothing in terms of pressure on their shoulders as they really shouldn't be here playing postseason hockey, so why not be a free-wheeling, run-and-gun team because they're going to need it to win at least one game in this series.

No matter how sharp Price may be for Montreal – and after such a long layoff it's questionable he's even sharp at all – but he'll likely face plenty of rubber from Crosby, Malkin and company from Pittsburgh and he won't be able to hold up forever. More potential for communication errors defensively in front of Price as well being the first game back (holds true for all games really), and this entire new scenario gives these two teams an opportunity to flip the script from their 0-3 O/U record against one another during the regular season.

Every one of those games finished with five goals though, and when you mix in a higher likelihood of sloppier play, I'll gravitate to this 'over' where some will look at the series history and not even consider it.


NHL Prop
Best Bet

Matchup: Chicago vs. Edmonton
TV-Time: NBC, 3:00 p.m. ET

Edmonton to score first and win in regulation +170

The Oilers were the final cut from the “favorite” category simply because outlining the case for the biggest favorite on the board isn't the hardest thing to do. So here is a plus-money way to look at a game that should be one the Oilers exploit the numerous edges they have in this matchup.

From the speed and skill Edmonton's got up front, to the level of comfort they've got to have being in their own arena, to the thinned out Blackhawks roster, if the Oilers play at their normal level in this series, they'll ultimately end up in the next round.

With all those advantages potentially magnified in a Game 1, Edmonton coming out and establishing control of the game early on and ultimately winning is a relatively easy game script to see out. After all, the team that scored first won all three regular season meetings as well.

Obviously, the alternative could happen and the Oilers come out flat and lost with no crowd there, but for a team I do believe wins in regulation to begin with (Edmonton is +107 in regulation), adding them to score first to that opinion at this price isn't hard to get behind.

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NBA Bubble Bets - Saturday
Tony Mejia

Miami Heat vs. Denver Nuggets

Time/Venue: 1 p.m, HP Field House
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Heat 41-24/0-0 (33-30-2, 0-0); Nuggets 43-22/0-0 (29-32-4, 0-0)
Line: DEN -1.5/211, DEN -120, MIA +100

Line Analysis: The Nuggets opened as a one-point underdog when lines were initially released but they were quickly bet up to a two-point favorite. Nikola Jokic’s bout with COVID-19 may have affected that number, but Miami’s Bam Adebayo and Kendrick Nunn were also stricken and reported to the bubble late. With both cleared to play, Miami has moved to just a 1.5-point underdog. The Heat was a five-point ‘dog in Denver back on Nov. 5 and suffered a 109-89 loss. The total for that matchup closed at 211.5.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: The Heat have all 17 players they brought to Orlando ready to play entering their first seeding game, so Erik Spoelstra will select the 13 he expects will be the most useful and will likely find a way to play most. Michael Malone doesn’t have the same luxury, having already ruled out starting wings Will Barton (knee soreness) and Gary Harris (hip strain). Point guard Jamal Murray (hamstring) is questionable and there’s really no reason to force anything. We could see Jokic and Paul Millsap surrounded by teammates like Monte Morris and Torrey Craig in the starting five.

Handicapping Notes: Miami lost to the Nuggets by 20 in opening their first West coast road trip of the season. Barton and Murray were catalysts, combining for 36 points and eight assists. Jokic was held to 4-for-12 shooting and just five boards. The Heat shot 36 percent as Jimmy Butler, Adebayo and Nunn combined to shoot 9-for-35.

Nothin’ But Bet: Butler will likely fixate on defending and getting teammates involved in lieu of scoring for most of this one, so expect the Heat’s leader to surpass the 12.5 rebounds + assists prop available at FanDuel (+104).

Utah Jazz vs. Oklahoma City Thunder

Time/Venue: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Jazz 42-23/1-0 (31-32-2, 1-0); Thunder 40-24/0-0 (40-24, 0-0)
Line: OKC -1.5/217.5, OKC -116 ML, UTA +110

Line Analysis: Utah was a 1-point favorite when this line was set to open July, but the number flipped to the Thunder being favored the single digit. The total has been steadily bet up to where it currently resides after being available as low as 210.5 at one point. CG Technology had it at 211.5 on Friday morning but has similarly adjusted its numbers.
The Thunder were a 9-point underdog when they fell 100-95 in Utah on Opening night (Oct. 23) and won outright (104-90 as an 8.5-point ‘dog on Dec. 9. There was a huge disparity between the totals as the books put a number of 221.5 on the first one and just 206.5 in the December meeting. Both went under.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Andre Roberson is back for Oklahoma City after over two years battling back from a serious knee injury. He’s a difference-maker guarding wings, adding to the arsenal of athletic perimeter defenders Sam Presti has assembled. The Jazz come off a huge comeback win over New Orleans in which Jordan Clarkson played a huge role as the primary catalyst off the bench.

Handicapping Notes: Paul hasn’t shot the ball well in scrimmages but focused on getting teammates involved and has deferred to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Dennis Schroder. The Thunder trio matches up against Donovan Mitchell, Mike Conley and Clarkson, who weren’t together for the first few matchups.

Outside of Clarkson, no Utah reserve played even 15 minutes. Forward Georges Niang, guard Emmanuel Mudiay and center Tony Bradley combined to shoot 2-for-10, which won’t cut it since Clarkson can’t be tasked with the heavy lifting off the bench every time out. Adams shot 1-for-8 against Rudy Gobert’s defense in the opener and played better in the second matchup but still gave up 19 points and 17 boards on 9-for-10 shooting. Adams has looked great in the bubble thus far, so if he can be better against Gobert, the Thunder could close the 1.5=game gap between them and Utah.

Nothin’ But Bet: FanDuel has a player performance double prop that pays out +530 if Adams grabs 12 boards and the Thunder wins. That sounds like a winner to me.

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Clippers

Time/Venue: 6:00 p.m. ET, HP Field House
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Pelicans 28-37/0-1 (33-30-2, 0-1); Clippers 44-21/0-1 (35-30, 1-0)
Line: LAC -5/226, LAC -175 ML, NOP +180

Line Analysis: These numbers were hung well before the first game these teams played on Thursday night and weren’t altered much. The scoring flurries that Friday produced have led to bets on the ‘over’ that are pushing this total up some. These teams have met three times already this season and the total has hovered around 233 on each occasion, with the ‘over’ prevailing every time. The teams have combined for 259 or more twice. L.A. has won two of the matchups but only covered when it was favored by 13 at home (134-109, Nov. 24).

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: Patrick Beverley played despite not practicing, coming off the bench. Ivica Zubac and Landry Shamet also participated, so Doc Rivers is going to let his team play itself into shape during these seeding games. Without key reserves Lou Williams (quarantine) and Montrezl Harrell (family issue) available, there are plenty of shots and touches to go around. The Pelicans are taking it easy with Zion Williamson, who they don’t feel is ready for the grind since he had to leave the bubble to tend to a family matter. Don’t expect him to play more than 20 minutes or so.

Handicapping Notes: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George combined for 58 points per game against the Pelicans this season. Brandon Ingram only played in two games and shot 40 percent, averaging 22.5 points per game, a figure below his season average. Holiday has dominated, shooting 63.6 percent from 3-point range while averaging 27 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.5 assists. After losing to Utah, this is a must-win for a Pelicans squad that has fallen behind Portland in the race to finish ninth in the Western Conference. The Clippers, undoubtedly set to finish second or third, aren’t playing with the same sense of urgency.

Nothin’ But Bet: Look for Leonard to finish as the high scorer in this contest, which pays +105 at FanDuel.

Philadelphia 76ers vs. Indiana Pacers

Time/Venue: 7 p.m. ET, Visa Athletic Center
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): 76ers 39-26/0-0 (28-33-4, 0-0); Pacers 39-26/0-0 (34-28-3, 0-0)
Line: PHI -5.5/216.5, PHI ML -225, IND +200

Line Analysis: The Sixers were just a four-point favorite until earlier this week, when Indiana’s Domantas Sabonis was ruled out due to plantar fasciitis that forced him to leave the bubble. The total has been bet up from 210 to 216.5, which is higher than the previous three totals in their matchups that range from 207.5-215. The ‘under’ is 2-1. Indiana has covered all three meetings, winning outright twice.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: It’s no secret that the Sixers have a different look with Ben Simmons now at power forward and another scorer/creator in the backcourt mix in Shake Milton. Al Horford started to look comfortable as the anchor to that second unit in scrimmages, so Philly has the edge in quality depth given that the Pacers are suiting up without their leading scorer. Victor Oladipo is expected to play but hasn’t committed to doing so for the duration of these seeding games. Myles Turner will be counted on to be more assertive offensively with Sabonis out.

Handicapping Notes: The Pacers won the last two contests between these teams but Joel Embiid didn’t play either time. He scored 32 points and got to the line for 15 attempts in the 119-116 win on Nov. 30. Turner finished 1-for-8 from the field and picked up five fouls in that game, so he’ll have to be much more effective here for Indiana to have a shot. Oladipo hasn’t played in any of the games so far. The ‘over’ has prevailed in six straight games involving Philadelphia.

Nothin’ But Bet: Embiid netting a double-double in a 76ers win will actually get you +104 at FanDuel and is one of my favorite wagers for Saturday.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Toronto Raptors

Time/Venue: 8:30 p.m. ET ESPN Wide World of Sports Arena
Records/Bubble Records (SU/ATS): Lakers 50-14/1-0 (35-28-1, 0-1); Raptors 46-18/0-0 (35-28-1, 0-0)
Line: LAL -4/216, LAL ML -158, TOR +150

Line Analysis: Like most totals, this figure has been bet up over the past 72 hours, climbing from 213.5. The Raptors will be the last team to debut in Orlando, which is ironic since they’ve been working out longest since they were forced to vacate Canada. Toronto is a four-point underdog, which means the defending champs have come up in the eyes of oddsmakers considering it was a 10.5-point underdog at Staples the only time these teams met (Nov. 10). The Raps won outright 113-104, handing the Lakers their second loss of the season.

Injuries/Rotational Adjustments to Watch: It will be interesting to see whether either James or Davis dials back the intensity after that clash with the Clippers packed a playoff atmosphere into a bubble setting. Kyle Kuzma and Dion Waiters could more time with the West’s top seed essentially wrapped up. The Raptors are healthy and set to deploy the Eastern Conference’s deepest roster, which has been fortified by a slimmed-down Marc Gasol.

Handicapping Notes: The Lakers have lost 10 straight games to Toronto, so that alone is incentive if James wants another challenge this early in the bubble. He went just 5-for-15 in that 113-104 loss on Nov. 10 and Pascal Siakam ended up a plus-15 to produce an upset without Ibaka or Kyle Lowry available. That Gasol/Ibaka combination is going to be a handful for everyone if they can stay healthy, so Davis may get a tougher test than he did against the Clippers. We’ll know pretty quickly if L.A. will respect this as a Finals preview to send a message to the defending champs or whether it opts to punt, having already posted the more important win this week.

Nothin’ But Bet: I expect the Raptors to be ready to play and think it might take the Lakers a few possessions to get fully engaged and decide whether they’re up for testing themselves for another intense 48 minutes this early in the process of resuming play. Ride Toronto to be first to 15 points at FanDuel (+100).

NBA Daily
Free Pick
I like the Thunder to post a victory over Utah in a game with major seeding implications out West. Ride the money line (+120) rather than laying the 1.5 points considering it will probably be a tight one.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Camarero

Camarero - Race 7	Exacta / Trifecta / Superfecta
Claiming $20,000 • 6 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Age 3 • CR: 85 • Purse: $8,100 • Post: 5:30P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 120 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 31 ALLOWED 1 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 16 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JUNE 16 ALLOWED 5 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (RACES FOR LESSER CLAIMING NOT CONSIDERED RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. LITTLE TRAFFIC is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * BOKUR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. RODAS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fou rth start after a layoff. MONKEYOFFMYBACK: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. LITTLE TRAFFIC: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. CRAFTINESS: Today is a sprint a nd this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
7	BOKUR	7/2	6/1
9	RODAS	2/1	6/1
8	MONKEYOFFMYBACK	5/2	7/1
3	LITTLE TRAFFIC	5/1	7/1
1	CRAFTINESS	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	LITTLE TRAFFIC	3	5/1	Front-runner	67	74	84.0	69.0	61.5
7	BOKUR	7	7/2	Stalker	85	73	77.4	79.2	74.7
5	SPECTACULAR TRUTH	5	10/1	Stalker	77	79	65.3	66.5	56.5
8	MONKEYOFFMYBACK	8	5/2	Stalker	82	82	59.0	77.4	70.9
9	RODAS	9	2/1	Stalker	83	81	58.4	75.6	69.1
4	THREE IN A YEAR	4	4/1	Trailer	69	71	42.2	61.0	46.0
1	CRAFTINESS	1	3/1	Trailer	79	71	39.0	74.3	68.3
2	MY RUNNER RUNNER	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	73	73	58.0	62.6	51.1
6	HUGOIGO	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	67	59	35.7	48.0	30.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 5	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent mimimum wager $1 Pick Four
Allowance • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 83 • Purse: $12,000 • Post: 9:22P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR TWO YEAR OLDS WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * PYC POWERGLIDE: Quarter horse has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. LEAH CARROLL: Quarter Horse has a Fast Break Style designation. DONT RIDE THE SLIDE: Horse's average winnin g distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). FRACTIONAL INTEREST: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. BAC TO LIFE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	PYC POWERGLIDE	7/2	9/2
6	LEAH CARROLL	9/2	6/1
5	DONT RIDE THE SLIDE	3/1	7/1
4	FRACTIONAL INTEREST	5/1	10/1
3	BAC TO LIFE	5/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ALL THATS CONSIDERED	1	5/1	Average	79	57	4.1	0.0	0.0
2	PYC POWERGLIDE	2	7/2	Fast/Trouble-prone	88	79	2.1	0.0	0.0
3	BAC TO LIFE	3	5/1	Average	82	67	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	FRACTIONAL INTEREST	4	5/1	Slow	84	67	8.0	0.0	0.0
5	DONT RIDE THE SLIDE	5	3/1	Average	80	77	3.7	0.0	0.0
6	LEAH CARROLL	6	9/2	Fast	80	75	2.1	0.0	0.0
7	DREAMLAND EXPRESS	7	7/2	Fast/Trouble-prone	74	67	1.9	0.0	0.0