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Sunday 8/2/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc
Sunday inside the NBA bubble we get the Dallas Mavericks 40-28 (35-30-3 ATS) taking on the Phoenix Suns. 27-39 (30-35-1 ATS). This one tips off at 9pm ET from the Visa Athletic Center in Orlando Florida.
The Mavs returned from the coronavirus hiatus by not being able to answer the bell to Houston, 149-153 in OT. The Suns took care of a battered Wizards squad 125-112.
These teams have met twice this year already. The Suns and Mavs split those two games, with each team winning on the road. Phoenix lost by 7 points the first meeting, but won by 29 in the second as the Mavericks were without Porzingis.
The Mavs will see a Suns team that scored 125 points Friday and had six players score in double figures. I'm loving these Suns, their backs are against the wall and they're playing like it. YES, I know they're a longshot to get to a playoff or play-in series, but the Suns are still alive and they have some fight in them. On the other side Dallas used a lot of energy on Friday in the back and forth game with Houston, plus they don't have a lot to play for.
Some betting trends to consider. Dallas are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games when playing on the road against Phoenix. Dallas are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games against Phoenix, 3-8 SU in their last 11 games against Phoenix, and are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games played on a Sunday.
The Suns keep rolling ATS, take the points on Sunday.
This will be the second game for both Portland and Boston in this NBA bubble in Orlando and the Trail Blazers did help their cause in their comeback overtime win over Memphis to draw to within 2 1/2 games of that 8th spot in the Western Conference.
While the Blazers were busy winning, the Celtics were unable to dent the #1 seed in the East the Milwaukee Bucks, as Boston lost by 7 to the Bucks, but they did get guard Kemba Walker back from his knee injury. Walker is on a minutes restriction right now, but was able to score 16 points in the loss.
The Celtics are in solid position - currently the #3 seed in the East - but they do need to string together a few wins here before the playoffs begin. Boston has the type of team that is made for this unique end of the season format and I certainly value the X's and O's of head coach Brad Stevens over that of his counterpart Terry Stotts.
Boston won and covered the only regular season meeting between the teams and they have won and covered 4 of the last 6 overall between the teams.
The time for Portland to make their playoff charge was pre-shutdown, not now.
My complimentary winner for Sunday is on the early MLB card, where I'm going to play a big underdog in the American League East in the Baltimore Orioles catching money against the struggling Tampa Bay Rays.
I won with the Orioles on Saturday, and you got them for free. I'm giving you them right back today, as they've ridden a two-game win streak into second place and will hand the struggling Rays their fifth-straight defeat.
Tampa Bay's offense has struggled out of the gate, currently sitting 23rd in the bigs with a .213 batting average. It's surprising and confusing, because the Rays rank sixth with 45 runs.
They're just struggling to close things out, as they've now lost four in a row. The O's won 6-3 on Friday after erasing an early 2-0 deficit, carried the momentum into last night's 5-4 win in 11 innings and now have the upper hand at home and in a good spot to steal another one.
Take the home dog price here, as Baltimore will earn its first series sweep since winning three against Toronto in August 2018.
Well, after the New York Mets did me dirty on Friday, I turned the table and took the Atlanta Braves last night, a 7-1 winner. Today I'm coming right back with the Braves once again, as they'll keep the motivation flowing in the third game of the four-game series.
The Braves are streaking, having won four straight, while the Mets have lost four in a row.
And because of how Atlanta won Friday night's game, then crushed New York last night, I think it will carry a wealth of momentum into this game. If you read my analysis on Saturday, I promised you Ronald Acuna Jr. was going to snap out of a slump, and boy did he.
Acuna was hitting a meager .138 with 15 strikeouts in 29 at-bats before he doubled to center field in the second inning on Friday night, a sign he was ready to have a breakout weekend. On Saturday, he in two runs with two hits, including his first home run.
The best was seeing him emerge from the dugout and wave to the fan cardboard cutouts in the stands.
Acuna hit 41 homers and had 37 stolen bases in 2019, and I fully expect him to keep the offensive surge going today against Mets' pitching staff. I won't list either New York's David Peterson or Atlanta's Kyle Wright, but I do think we have the edge. See, Wright was hammered in his last start, and with his team playing well, the righty will be looking to avenge the loss and won't want to let his teammates down.
Clayton Kershaw makes his 2020 debut Sunday, when the Dodgers face the Diamondbacks. Caesars sportsbooks opened Los Angeles a -160 road favorite, with Arizona +150 for a 4:10 p.m. ET start.
MLB betting odds are on the board and seeing some early action for the Sunday slate. Clayton Kershaw makes his 2020 debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers, while a Houston Astros-Los Angeles Angels clash is among other noteworthy games, and the nightcap is the conclusion of the Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees.
Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Sunday’s contests. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the day.
MLB line movement
Kershaw was supposed to throw on Opening Day, but a sore back led to him being a last-minute scratch. With the left-hander on the hill Sunday for a 4:10 p.m. ET first pitch, the Dodgers opened -160 against Merrill Kelly and the host Arizona Diamondbacks (+150).
Multi-talented Shohei Ohtani, who was absolutely blitzed last week in his first pitching appearance since 2018, takes the ball again for the Angels against Josh James and the Astros. Los Angeles is a +110 home underdog at Caesars books, with Houston a -120 favorite in a 4:10 p.m. ET meeting.
Neither of the above games saw any line movement by late Saturday night.
The Yankees are out to a 6-1 start and looking for a three-game home sweep of the Red Sox in a 7:08 p.m. ET contest. Caesars held off on the opener for this contest, as Boston hadn’t yet designated a starter to counter New York’s James Paxton.
901TAMPA BAY -902 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 17-39 SU (-25.9 Units) in home games when the total is 10 or higher in the last 3 seasons.
903CINCINNATI -904 DETROIT
DETROIT is 23-56 SU (-36.1 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
905NY METS -906 ATLANTA
NY METS are 27-9 SU (17.1 Units) in road games in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
909CHI WHITE SOX -910 KANSAS CITY
CHI WHITE SOX is 23-7 SU (15.3 Units) in road games in August games in the last 3 seasons.
911CLEVELAND -912 MINNESOTA
CLEVELAND is 63-39 SU (22.8 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.
915PITTSBURGH -916 CHICAGO CUBS
PITTSBURGH is 48-63 SU (-28.8 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse over the last 2 seasons.
919SAN DIEGO -920 COLORADO
SAN DIEGO is 0-8 SU (-8.8 Units) in road games after having won 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the last 3 seasons.
921TEXAS -922 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 7-29 SU (-24.9 Units) in home games when the total is 8.5 to 10 in the last 3 seasons.
923HOUSTON -924 LA ANGELS
LA ANGELS are 16-34 SU (-23.5 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen whose ERA is 3.45 or better in the last 3 seasons.
925LA DODGERS -926 ARIZONA
ARIZONA is 28-15 SU (15.5 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
927OAKLAND -928 SEATTLE
OAKLAND is 45-24 SU (22.2 Units) vs. AL teams scoring 4.9 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.
929BOSTON -930 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 28-10 SU (17 Units) in home games against division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
935CINCINNATI -936 DETROIT
DETROIT is 23-56 SU (-36.1 Units) in home games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game over the last 2 seasons.
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