Friday 8/7/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lee

Aug 07 '20, 8:10 PM in 9h
MLB | Reds vs Brewers
Play on: Reds -113 at YouWager

10* FREE MLB PICK (Reds -113)
I'm taking Cincinnati as a small road favorite against the Brewers on Friday. The Reds will have a clear edge on the mound in this one, as they send out Trevor Bauer, while Milwaukee's Eric Lauer makes his first start of the season.
Bauer has been incredible in his first two starts. He's allowed just 1 run on 4 hits with 20 strikeouts in 13 1/3 innings. Both of those starts did come against a bad Detroit team, but given how he dominated I'm confident he will keep it rolling.
Note that while the Brewers scored 8 runs in their win on Thursday, their offense hasn't been great in 2020 (they scored 4 or fewer in each of their previous 6 games).
Lauer's only action of 2020 came in relief back on July 26. This is his first year with Milwaukee. His previous two were with the Padres. He posted a 4.34 ERA and 1.54 WHIP in 23 starts back in 2018 and 4.45 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 30 appearances (29 starts) last year. Give me the Reds -113!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hunter Price

Aug 07 '20, 9:10 PM in 10h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Diamondbacks +115 at sportsbook

1* Free Pick on Diamondbacks +115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kenny Walker

Aug 07 '20, 9:10 PM in 10h
MLB | Diamondbacks vs Padres
Play on: Diamondbacks +114 at jazz

Free Pick on Diamondbacks

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lundin

Aug 07 '20, 9:40 PM in 10h
MLB | Giants vs Dodgers
Play on: Dodgers -1½ -131 at pinnacle

GIANTS @ DODGERS FREE PICK AUGUST 7, 2020
I expect the Los Angeles Dodgers to win and cover the runline when they host the San Francisco Giants for the opener of a three-game series Friday night.
Giants' righty Jeff Samardzija (0-1, 9.31 ERA) could not have had much worse of a start to the season, allowing five runs in back-to-back outings. The team lost the two games by two runs and four runs respectively.
The Dodgers counter with left-hander Julio Urias (1-0, 2.45 ERA) who's had a solid start to the year and limited Arizona to two runs through six innings of an 11-2 win last time out.
Urias has posted a 1.40 ERA in 38 2/3 career innings versus San Francisco and he has its current roster limited to a .173 batting average.
It's somewhat risky business backing a home team on the runline, but I think the Dodgers will have this one wrapped up early.
Free pick on Los Angeles Dodgers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Stronach 5

Stronach 5 - Race 5	Leg E of the Stronach Pick 5 Race 8 from Laurel Park
Optional Claiming $35,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Turf • Ages 3 and up • CR: 99 • Purse: $45,000 • Post: 4:32P
(RAIL AT 52 FEET). (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JUNE 7 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $35,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES) (HORSES WHICH HAVE NOT RUN SINCE MARCH 15, 2020, MAY ENTER A CLAIMING RACE AND WAIVE THE CLAIMING PRICE IF THE HORSE IS ENTERED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE NOT LESS THAN THE CLAIMING PRICE OF IT'S LAST START. THIS RULE IS ONLY APPLICABLE FOR A HORSE'S FIRST START BACK FOR A PERIOD OF 90 DAYS, STARTING WITH THE FIRST DAY LIVE RACING RESUMES IN MARYLAND). (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY MANAGEMENT TO RUN THIS RACE ON THE TURF COURSE, IT WILL BE RUN ON THE MAIN TRACK AT FIVE AND ONE HALF FURLONGS)

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FORT FORTITUDE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a l ayoff. TEMPT ME TWICE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. TAPPIN CAT: Today is a sprint and the horse is carrying at least 120 lbs. CUESTION DE TIEMPO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. PAGLIACCI: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
8	FORT FORTITUDE	7/2	9/2
6	TEMPT ME TWICE	7/2	6/1
2	TAPPIN CAT	5/2	7/1
5	CUESTION DE TIEMPO	9/2	10/1
4	PAGLIACCI	3/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	ALLTHEWAY TO CAIRO	1	12/1	Front-runner	91	87	92.0	82.5	71.0
8	FORT FORTITUDE	8	7/2	Front-runner	101	93	91.3	95.2	88.2
6	TEMPT ME TWICE	6	7/2	Front-runner	102	93	90.4	93.4	84.4
7	SKY MAGICIAN	7	6/1	Stalker	91	92	96.1	87.4	72.9
2	TAPPIN CAT	2	5/2	Stalker	102	104	69.2	95.6	88.1
5	CUESTION DE TIEMPO	5	9/2	Trailer	104	92	86.4	90.6	84.1
4	PAGLIACCI	4	3/1	Trailer	104	90	72.6	91.8	85.8
9	JOSEPH	9	12/1	Trailer	93	95	60.2	89.2	74.7
3	FOLLOW THE DOG	3	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	92	82	64.0	70.6	58.1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Prairie Meadows

Prairie Meadows - Race 4	Win / Place / Show / Exacta / Quinella / Trifecta (.50 Min) Superfecta (.10 Min) / Pick 4 (.50 Min) / Pick 3 (.50 Min) / Daily Double
Claiming $5,000 • 5 1/2 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 72 • Purse: $15,070 • Post: 7:19P
FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON TWO RACES IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $2,500 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY AND ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * LEIGHTON KENTUCKY: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. CALL T HE SHOTS: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. SHIMMERING DREAM: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. I'M NASTY TOO: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. RUN SOME KOPPY'S: Toda y is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff.
6	LEIGHTON KENTUCKY	8/1	5/1
2	CALL THE SHOTS	4/1	7/1
7	SHIMMERING DREAM	2/1	7/1
3	I'M NASTY TOO	3/1	9/1
1	RUN SOME KOPPY'S	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
6	LEIGHTON KENTUCKY	6	8/1	Front-runner	75	75	71.0	63.2	57.7
3	I'M NASTY TOO	3	3/1	Front-runner	75	68	64.2	53.6	45.1
7	SHIMMERING DREAM	7	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	70	69	68.1	70.9	65.9
1	RUN SOME KOPPY'S	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	66	65	58.8	63.8	56.3
2	CALL THE SHOTS	2	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	68	71	49.4	64.2	57.2
5	INTOXICATING KISS	5	6/1	Trailer	72	68	40.8	60.2	47.7
4	CANELA CALIENTE	4	10/1	Trailer	68	60	6.8	62.2	53.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Saratoga - Race #4 - Post: 2:54pm - Maiden Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $57,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating:

#8 CAREFREE HIGHWAY (ML=8/1)
#7 BASELINE DRIVE (ML=7/5)


CAREFREE HIGHWAY - You'll be making money left and right by turning your betting money onto this jock/trainer combination. BASELINE DRIVE - Got some betting action in only race on Jun 24th at Gulfstream Park, but finished fourth. Has a shot in this field. This trainer brings horses to the grass in shape and ready to win, winning over 20 percent of the time under similar conditions. Here is an appropriate handicapping angle that I've used many times before. Play a filly (like this one) getting Lasix for the second time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 HOT BUTTON (ML=3/1), #5 HALO CITY (ML=4/1),

HOT BUTTON - I predict bad luck for this horse in this race. HALO CITY - Hasn't been doing anything at all of late.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Bet on #8 CAREFREE HIGHWAY to win if you can get at least 7/5 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,8]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Del Mar

08/07/20, DMR, Race 5, 4.09 PT
08/07/20,DMR,5,5F [Turf] 00:54:04 CLAIMING. Purse $37,000 (plus up to $4,440 CBOIF - California Bred Owner Fund). FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 122 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of Two Races Since May 7, 2020 Allowed 2 lbs. A race since then Allowed 4 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000, if for $35,000, allowed 2 lbs. (Maiden races and Claiming races for $32,000 or less not considered). (Rail at 12 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Nero	9/2	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.	EWL	30.00	1.33/$1
097.9054	4	Blackout (FR)	7/2	Centeno A	Miller Peter		33.14	1.17/$1
097.4433	3	Smokin Blackjack	6-1	Hernandez J J	Glatt Mark		30.00	1.33/$1
097.2404	1	Italiano	5-1	Prat F	Belvoir Vann	J	30.00	1.33/$1
096.5314	7	Reedley	15-1	Maldonado E A	Saldana Reed		30.00	1.33/$1
096.0611	6	He's Like Violence	12-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark	F	30.00	1.33/$1
095.5131	2	Seven Scents	5-1	Velez J I	Puype Mike		30.00	1.33/$1
095.4029	5	Honeymoonz Over	6-1	Flores E	Baker D. Wayne		30.00	1.33/$1
094.5291	9	Truth Seeker	15-1	Gonzalez R	Miyadi Steven	T	30.00	1.33/$1
093.9494	8	Portando	15-1	Roman E A	Carava Jack	SC	30.00	1.33/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 25.00, ROI 0.92/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Nero	9/2	Rispoli U	Sadler John W.	EWL	33.33	1.50/$1
098.4428	3	Smokin Blackjack	6-1	Hernandez J J	Glatt Mark		14.71	2.10/$1
097.3425	4	Blackout (FR)	7/2	Centeno A	Miller Peter		14.71	2.10/$1
097.2649	7	Reedley	15-1	Maldonado E A	Saldana Reed		14.71	2.10/$1
097.0186	1	Italiano	5-1	Prat F	Belvoir Vann	J	19.23	2.75/$1
096.7946	6	He's Like Violence	12-1	Cedillo A	Glatt Mark	F	14.71	2.10/$1
096.1355	5	Honeymoonz Over	6-1	Flores E	Baker D. Wayne		14.71	2.10/$1
094.4472	2	Seven Scents	5-1	Velez J I	Puype Mike		14.71	2.10/$1
093.3823	9	Truth Seeker	15-1	Gonzalez R	Miyadi Steven	T	14.71	2.10/$1
091.8919	8	Portando	15-1	Roman E A	Carava Jack	SC	14.71	2.10/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 57.14, ROI 2.24/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ellis Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Turf. Purse: $38000 Class Rating: 92

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JULY 7 ALLOWED 2 LBS. (IF DEEMED INADVISABLE BY

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 11 HOW IRONIC 12/1
# 4 JEN TAKE CHARGE 5/1
# 8 ELLA BRILLA 5/2

HOW IRONIC is the strongest bet in this competition especially at such a decent 12/1. Recent numbers for the jockey - 16 win percent - make this filly stand out in this field. This racer could shock this group at a big price. JEN TAKE CHARGE - Shows evidence of the look of a lucrative play, averaging a solid 82 speed figure which is one of the best in this field. ELLA BRILLA - Beschizza has very solid numbers that point to this filly to be a sharp contender. Win percentage under similar conditions may be the key for this filly.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Ruidoso Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 10 - Maiden Claiming - 7.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5510 Class Rating: 64

FOR MAIDENS, THREE, FOUR, AND FIVE YEARS OLD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 118 LBS.; OLDER, 122 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $6,500. NEW MEXICO BRED CLAIMING PRICE $10,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 THIRSTY MONKEY 5/2
# 8 WISKEYS DREAMS 9/2
# 4 KEATON 2/1

I have to consider THIRSTY MONKEY here. Has performed strongly lately in sprint races, posting a nifty 55 avg Equibase Speed Figure. This horse has to be in condition coming back to race so soon. With Sigala on top him, this gelding will probably be able to break out early for this race. WISKEYS DREAMS - Danley has a strong win percent with horses travelling in dirt sprint races. Gamblers should note that this equine runs with second time Lasix today. KEATON - Looks respectable for the conditions of this competition today, showing solid

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Evangeline Downs - Race #5 - Post: 7:38pm - Maiden Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,500 Class Rating: 43

Rating:

#10 GOING JAPANESE (ML=5/1)
#7 IDE B A WINNER (ML=6/1)


GOING JAPANESE - Got to appreciate a good work horse. This gelding's last workout was second fastest of the day for the distance. A racer coming back this promptly after a nice outing is a good signal. Was in a $5,000 Maiden Claiming race at Evangeline Downs last race out. That affair had a class figure of 60 and he is moving down in this field. A certain contender. Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This horse is live today. You have to like that last race speed figure, 42, which is the best last race fig of this field. Earnings per start (EPS) is something that I believe can be a very valuable handicapping factor. This thoroughbred is ranked numero uno in this field. IDE B A WINNER - Jockey jumped on this gelding's back for the 1st time on Jul 24th. Should 'know' the equine even better in this race. Taking a trip down in class ranks; has the power to make his presence felt. Last time out, finished fourth on a track listed as good at Evangeline Downs. Have to do better today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 BLUE RIDGE BODI (ML=5/2), #11 RUNCIMAN (ML=4/1), #6 GALLOPING BOOTS (ML=8/1),

BLUE RIDGE BODI - If he goes off near the M/L odds of 5/2, I'll have to pass. RUNCIMAN - Tough to put any cash on this gelding on the front end. Likes to hit the board though. Once you've got at least ten races at the track and still have no wins, its tough to break through for a victory. GALLOPING BOOTS - This horse hasn't shown much effort in the last two contests. 8/1 is not priced right for any animal in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance affair recently. Disappointing speed figure last time around the track at Evangeline Downs at 1 mile. Don't think this steed will improve too much today.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#10 GOING JAPANESE to win at post-time odds of 2/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [7,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

08/07/20, LRL, Race 8, 4.32 ET
08/07/20,LRL,8,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:00:04 ALLOWANCE OPTIONAL CLAIMING. Purse $45,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, WAIVER CLAIMING, STARTER OR STATE SIRED OR STATE BRED RACES OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES OR CLAIMING PRICE $35,000. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 125 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since June 7 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $35,000 (Races Where Entered For $25,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances) (Horses which have not run since March 15, 2020, may enter a claiming race and waive the claiming price if the horse is entered for a claiming price not less than the claiming price of it's last start. This rule is only applicable for a horse's first start back for a period of 90 days, starting with the first day live racing resumes in Maryland). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at Five and One half Furlongs) (Rail at 52 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	8	Fort Fortitude	7/2	Marquez C	Ness Jamie	TW	38.89	1.50/$1
098.7917	4	Pagliacci	3-1	Toledo J	Klesaris Steve	FE	38.89	1.50/$1
098.5412	7	Sky Magician	6-1	Pimentel J	Trombetta Michael J.	J	38.89	1.50/$1
098.0896	2	Tappin Cat	5/2	Toledo J	Capuano Gary		38.89	1.50/$1
097.9697	6	Tempt Me Twice	7/2	Gomez K	Merryman Ann W.	L	38.89	1.50/$1
097.7970	5	Cuestion de Tiempo	9/2	Karamanos H	Correas. IV Ignacio	S	38.89	1.50/$1
095.5373	1	Alltheway to Cairo	12-1	Perez X	Reynolds Joan A.		38.89	1.50/$1
095.3774	9	Joseph	12-1	Lyapustina T	Jenkins Rodney	C	38.89	1.50/$1
094.3098	3	Follow the Dog	15-1	Rosales V	Schoenthal Phil		38.89	1.50/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 38.71, ROI 1.79/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	8	Fort Fortitude	7/2	Marquez C	Ness Jamie	TW	32.31	1.04/$1
098.1603	4	Pagliacci	3-1	Toledo J	Klesaris Steve	SFE	30.77	1.38/$1
097.5125	6	Tempt Me Twice	7/2	Gomez K	Merryman Ann W.	L	30.77	1.38/$1
097.1428	2	Tappin Cat	5/2	Toledo J	Capuano Gary		30.77	1.38/$1
096.9366	7	Sky Magician	6-1	Pimentel J	Trombetta Michael J.	J	30.77	1.38/$1
096.2635	5	Cuestion de Tiempo	9/2	Karamanos H	Correas. IV Ignacio		30.77	1.38/$1
095.2807	1	Alltheway to Cairo	12-1	Perez X	Reynolds Joan A.		26.63	0.85/$1
095.2441	3	Follow the Dog	15-1	Rosales V	Schoenthal Phil		30.77	1.38/$1
095.1891	9	Joseph	12-1	Lyapustina T	Jenkins Rodney	C	32.31	1.04/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.69, ROI 0.91/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	Baseball – Yankees over 8
2.	Gameday Network	Baseball – Reds -115
3.	VegasSI.com	Baseball – Phillies +100
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	Baseball – Rockies +115
5.	Sports Action 365	Basketball – Spurs -8
6.	Point Spread Report	Basketball – Celtics over 219.5
7.	Lou Panelli	Basketball – Nets +4.5
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	Basketball – Pelicans -7.5
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	Baseball – Red Sox -115
10.	William E. Stockton	Baseball – Yankees over 8
11.	Vincent Pioli	Baseball – Dodgers -1.5
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	Baseball – Astros over 8.5
13.	SCORE	Basketball – Celtics +2
14.	East Coast Line Movers	Basketball – Spurs -8
15.	Tony Campone	Basketball – Nets under 231
16.	Chicago Sports Group	Basketball – Magic over 222.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	Baseball – Angels -170
18.	VIP Action	Baseball – Yankees -105
19.	South Beach Sports	Baseball – Nationals -170
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	Baseball – Red Sox -115
21.	NY Players Club	Basketball – Magic +4.5
22.	Fred Callahan	Basketball – Spurs -8
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	Basketball – Thunder -4.5
24.	Michigan Sports	Basketball – Celtics +2
25.	National Consensus Report	Baseball – Cardinals over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Saratoga/Del Mar Wagering Strategies - 8/7/20

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August 7, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Daily Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saratoga/Del Mar
Friday, August 7, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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It is recommended that Jeff’s selections be used to augment the reader’s own personal handicapping, though excellent results can be achieved by applying the rolling exotic strategy specified by Jeff’s analysis. Jeff’s recommended plays are intended for players with a moderate budget; however, readers are encouraged to adjust Jeff’s wagering strategy to fit their preferred investment level.
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Grade A=Highest degree of confidence.
Grade B=Solid Play.
Grade C=Least preferred, or pass.
Grade X=probable winner but odds are not likely to offer wagering value.
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The selections are available every racing day after morning scratches. For updates, please follow us on twitter @jsiegelracing.

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Today’s Del Mar Best Plays:

Third Race – Post Time: 3:08 PT
7 – Veteran (4-1)

Shows up in a claimer for the first time and may have found his friends after a pair of disappointing races vs. much stronger maiden special weight foes to begin his career. The R. Mandella-trained colt continues to impress in the a.m., so we’re willing to give the son of Quality Road one more chance. Definitely has the early speed to be on or near the lead throughout and against this band he may forget to stop. There may be good value at his morning line of 4-1 if you can get it.

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Ninth Race – Post Time: 6:09 PT.
7 – Alice Marble (6-1)

Was given a race in her debut in June after falling far back early and then closing a ton ground through the lane but much too late in a performance that was featured in a Black Book segment (view video). The daughter of Grazen should get serious today, and a series of significant workouts at Los Alamitos since that outing indicates the S. Miyadi-trained sophomore has considerably more early speed than she showed first time out. With the switch to underrated jockey R. Gonzalez for a barn that has superior stats with second-timers, she’s worth a play at 6-1 on the morning line in this California-bred five furlong turf sprint.

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Saratoga Analysis and Wagering Strategies:

RACE 1: Post 1:10 ET. Grade: X
Single: 1-Klickitat

Forecast: The Friday opener is a race we’re not planning to get too involved in. It’s maiden $40,000 inner turf claiming router featuring an even money morning line favorite Klickitat, a nine race maiden and beaten in a photo in his last pair, most recently off a long layoff. The J. Jerkens-trained gelding has little to beat and is guaranteed an ideal ground-saving trip from his good inside draw. Additionally, his numbers are better than par for the level and the First Samurai gelding appears capable of running equally well on the lead or from off the pace. In a no-value wagering affair, he’s a logical short price rolling exotic single, so you can use him in that role and simply sit out the race.
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RACE 2: Post 1:44 ET. Grade: B
Single: 8-Seven Seven

Forecast: Seven Seven, a $77,000 2-year-old in training purchase, was a bit green but displayed plenty of ability when breezing a furlong in :10 1/5 at the OBS March Sale, showing good athleticism and a nice way of going after switching to his correct lead late in that workout. At Monmouth Park the son of Laoban shows a healthy if not flashy work tab for K. Breen, whose stats with debut runners are quite impressive. From his comfortable outside draw he can load last and hopefully break first. In a race reduced to just six starters following overnight scratches and with the known element not terribly inspiring, let’s take a stand and make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 3: Post 2:20 ET. Grade: C
Use: 6-Sun Summers; 9-Bean Counter

Forecast: Bean Counter, a lightly-raced 4-year-old filly that originally brought $220,000 at auction, most recently won a starter’s $50,000 allowance turf miler at Belmont Park in mid-June and today shows up in a restricted (nw-3) $35,000 seller. Obviously, she’s being culled from the stable (you’ll see this a lot with the yearling sales approaching) but the T. Pletcher-trained daughter of Into Mischief can beat this field if she at least one good one left in her. The likely favorite and our slight top pick is Sun Summers, a recent $40,000 claim by M. Maker in a restricted (nw-2) $40,000 grass affair at Belmont Park in late June. Her new connections aren’t worried about protecting her based on the return for a slightly lesser price tag, but on pure numbers she’s comparable to ‘Counter and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play. We’ll include both in our rolling exotics but otherwise pass the race.
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RACE 4: Post 2:54 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 4-Kemba; 5-Halo City; 7-Baseline Drive

Forecast: Baseline Drive missed at 4/5 in her debut vs. maiden special weight fillies and mares at Gulfstream Park in June, winding up fourth after a slow start and a wide trip. It wasn’t a bad race according to the numbers and this drop to the maiden $75,000 level seems appropriate for a barn that has superior stats (35% with a flat-bet profit) with this angle. We’re expecting the daughter of Point of Honor to be along in time. Others worth considering in rolling exotic play include Kemba and Halo City. The former ran surprisingly well at 93-1 when pressing the pace and holding on well to be third vs. tougher straight maidens last time out and picks up J. Rosario while dropping back into a seller, while the ‘City has speed figures that fit and could show improvement if held up early and allowed to rally late.
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RACE 5: Post 3:28 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Honor Way; 3-Fair Regis; 4-Kept True

Forecast: Here’s a fairly competitive allowance optional claiming sprint for fillies and mares that has at least three legitimate possibilities It’s a spread race in rolling exotic play with at a chance to collect on a decent price. Honor Way is most comfortable as a late-running sprinter and drops into a realistic spot after being outrun in the much stronger restricted stakes here last month. The veteran mare – a real pro with 10 career victories – is ideally suited for this extended sprint distance (she’s a career 3-for-6 at this exact trip) and with a little help up front should be dangerous in the final furlong. Back with “win rider” J. Ortiz and over the Saratoga main track which she’s shown a liking for in the past, the C. Baker-trained mare offers value at or near her morning line of 5-1. Fair Regis, a close third behind Honor Way under similar conditions two runs back, is a major player once again and is a “must use” at 4-1 on the morning line. She has a bit more tactical speed than ‘Way and should have every chance from a pace stalking position. I. Ortiz, Jr., who has won on her in the past, gets back aboard. Kept True adds blinkers and seems likely to be the quickest of the quick. Freshened since March but with a recent work tab that should have her plenty fit, the daughter of Yes It’s True was a good winner over this track last year off a similar layoff and can be expected to fire a big shot fresh, though the barn’s record with come-backers isn’t one to brag about. If she clears easily she may get very brave.
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RACE 6: Post 4:04 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-O’Gotten Girl; 7-Mad Maddy; 8-Army Wife; 10-Credit Enhancement

Forecast: This is a stronger-than-par maiden special weight turf sprint for juvenile fillies containing several promising newcomers that are bred to excel on grass. O’Gotten Girl actually is one that doesn’t really have a grass pedigree but she’s very quick and much more dangerous than her 15-1 morning line would indicate. The daughter of Competitive Edge shows no stakes winners in the first three generations of her female family yet brought $140,000 at the OBS April sale after breezing a quarter mile in :20 4/5. She didn’t change leads in that workout, nor did she in a local July 26 main track drill in which she was hard held and able to go considerable faster if permitted. From the rail she has to leave with her field but if the G. Gullo-trained filly breaks well she might be extremely dangerous at a big price. Amy Wife also has impressed in the morning in drills that have been accomplished exclusively on dirt. Certainly bred to excel on turf, the daughter of Declaration of War breezed a furlong in :10 1/5 at the OBS April sale before being sold for $190,000. She’s an efficient mover with a good turn of foot and looks very dangerous first crack out of the box for trainer M. Maker. Credit Enhancement has been less impressive in the morning that either ‘Girl or ‘Wife but she’s a daughter of More Than Ready and could easily be much comfortable on grass than dirt This will be her first opportunity to get a feel of the lawn and the surface could move her up considerably for C. Brown (22% with first-timers). The most dangerous of the known element is the extremely quick Mad Maddy. She cut out good fractions when runner-up over this course and distance last month but didn’t find much off the bridle when succumbing to the talented Outadore in the final furlong. The daughter of American Pharoah has had three starts and really hasn’t yet produced any significant forward move, but if the others don’t fire, she could get loose early and roll all the way to the wire.
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RACE 7: Post 4:40 ET. Grade: B
Use: 3-Archumybaby; 5-Daria’s Angel; 9-Keep Your Distance

Forecast: Older $25,000 claiming fillies and mares compete in an elongated sprint in fairly competitive race for the level. Archumybaby returns to her winning level after finishing a respectable third in a $32,000 claimer over this track last month. That race was at six furlongs; today’s seven furlong trip is much more to her liking (3 wins in 5 starts) so we’re anticipating the O. Noda-trained mare will be able to settle just off the leaders and then kick home when it counts. There are a couple of others to consider in your rolling exotics, at least as back-ups. Keep Your Distance was waiver protected when winning a $16,00 seller off the bench in mid-June and today is double jumped in class in what we’ll take as a sign of confidence. She’s a lifetime winner of 16 races and too far too genuine to dismiss, even though she’s been facing less foes in all of her recent outings. Daria’s Angel was a winner for $32,000 when last seen in February but then disappeared. She returns on the one-level drop – not a particularly encouraging sign – but if she comes back as well as she left the veteran Gemologist mare could be in the thick of it throughout.
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RACE 8: Post 5:14 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 1-Silky Blue; 7-Jen’s Battle

Forecast: Silky Blue was 18-1 when she graduated in her second career start in mid-June at Belmont Park, doing so at the expense of subsequent stakes winner Fresco, and the daughter of Hard Spun looks very live on the one-level raise while stretching out to a mile from a comfortable inside draw. She’ll probably not offer a whole lot of wagering value at 9/5 on the morning line but if she handles the two-turn trip she’ll be tough. Jen’s Battle is also trying a distance of ground for the first time and projects to be prominent throughout, perhaps even on the lead. She remains protected after being claimed for $40,000 last November, and after a couple of recent sprint outings the daughter of Declaration of War should be sharp on the stretch-out. J. Rosario stays aboard, another positive factor. We’ll try to survive and advance using just these two rolling exotic play.
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RACE 9: Post 5:46 ET. Grade: B
Use: 6-Cazadero; 9-Therideofalifetime; 10-Jackie’s Warrior

Forecast: This year’s edition of the Saratoga Special S.-G2 appears to have come up stronger than usual. We’ll go three-deep while preferring the recent highly-impressive Keeneland maiden winner Therideofalifetime on top. His fast, highly-rated score last month was accomplished on the lead, but he’ll probably be relegated to a stalker’s role in a field with plenty of early zip. He has to prove he can win with that type of trip; the gamble is that he can. Cazadero, unbeaten in two starts including the Bashford Manor S.-G3 at Churchill Downs, proved he could settle off a hot pace and rally in the lane last time out and similar tactics should be employed today. The son of Street Sense isn’t quite as fast on pure numbers as Therideofalifetime, so we’ll see what he’s really made of today. Jackie’s Warrior won his debut at the expense of Therideofalifetime despite a less than ideal trip and could easily score right back. From his outside draw the son of Maclean’s Music should pop and go and may be quick enough to clear the field. With R. Santana, Jr. opting for his S. Asmussen-trained stablemate Cazadero (as he should), J. Rosario picks up the call.
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RACE 10: Post 6:18 ET. Grade: B-
Use: 2-Tilsa; 5-Dripping In

Forecast: Tisla drops into a winning spot in this modest maiden $40,000 turf dash for fillies and mares and should appreciate sprinting for the first time in her third career start. After setting the pace and then weakening when facing tougher maiden $75,000 milers at Belmont Park last time out, she projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field in which most of the closers have been thoroughly exposed. She looks on paper every bit the 2-1 morning line favorite that she is. Dripping In, like our top pick a route-to-sprint play, is a 10-race maiden but has never raced at this level. She removes blinkers, switches to J. Rosario, and should be included somewhere on your ticket.
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