Service Plays Monday 8/24/20

[Duncan]

Elite Sports Picks
Cincinnati (Bauer)/Milwaukee (Anderson) UNDER 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kirby Maxwell

100 DIME
NBA Max Wager Winner
OKC Thunder

[FATMANWINS]

ats
4 kc under
3 oak under

[rocky57]

Vince Akins (VegasInsider)
MLB
Nationals -107
Cubs -123
Brewers/Reds Over 8.5
Twins -117

[rocky57]

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider
NHL
Dallas Stars +140 - Play of the Day
Prop Wager - Islanders/Flyers Over 1.5 goals (1st period)

[rocky57]

H&H Sports (Final Update)
NBA - Triple Dime Trailblazers/Lakers Under 227
NHL Icecrusher - Double Dime New York Islanders +105
MLB
Triple Dime - Houston Astros -143
Double Dime - Cincinnati Reds -139

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VegasEliteSports

Rockets/OKC over 113 1H

$5500 to win $5000

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA(BOB BALFE)
4:00 PM EST
Rotation #704
Thunder +2.5 over Rockets
The Rockets are a more experienced team and overall their starting five is better, but this is a team that has gone the entire way playing with a short rotation. As the series gets deep this could be a problem because each player has to be on their best game in order to win. The Thunder were in a spot to go down 0-3 and won a very important OT in convincing fashion. The momentum now is with Oklahoma City. Look for them to be fresher in the second half. Take the Thunder.

MLB
8:05 PM EST
Rotation #903
Marlins +105 over Nationals
Lopez/Voth
It’s the rubber game in a rare 5 game series as both teams took 2 games so far. Both pitchers don’t have much experience. Pablo Lopez has a better strikeout to walk ratio and has the better ERA than Austin Voth. Lopez has given up less homeruns as well. Take the Marlins.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

AL CENTRAL HI-ROLLER
3% Twins-Indians under 8.5 (EV)


Play UNDER the TOTAL of 8.5 (good to 8 runs)
3% confidence rating

LIST PITCHERS: Maeda and Civale

Maeda has been better than I ever imagined he could be with his move from his former senior circuit club on the left-coast to an upper midwest town that isn't all that inviting for non-crackers, or those who are different than the common folk wading in the Lake waters of Minnesota. His counterpart, Maeda's mind you, continues to show us that mind over matter.... matters.

I have rarely found backing a pitcher that is coming off an outing as former Dodgers' Kenta Maeda has worth supporting. Not unless that person, player, has shown a personality that exhibits the traits we attach to a sociopath. Someone that is, when focused, has a killer instinct that makes the sane believe the safest, smartest decision, is to turn and put as much distance between you and "it" as you can. I do not know Maeda to be that person, player if you will.

Maeda will make his first start since flirting with a no-hitter on Tuesday against Milwaukee. And after understanding the Kool-Aid that is being served at today's party it is important to understand the situation. This is, all things equal, a big game for the Twins. It has weight and relevance to Minnesota's opponent, Cleveland. It is mid-season in Major League Baseball. The Twins are playing their 30th of a 60 game regular season and against the team that is most likely to threaten them in the second half, Cleveland.

Maeda threw a career high 115 pitches in his Tuesday start and because of this the powers that are in the Twins dugout positioned the former LA starting right-hander an extra days rest.

Not only do I have very little information on how Maeda will handle today's outing, the powers-that-are for the Twins don't have a long and storied history, either. Twins skipper, Baldelli said. “We were going to insert a starter or two along the way. We weren’t sure exactly when we were going to do it, and then Kenta went with the long start and then it just fell into place where it just made a lot of sense to do it today."

Baldeli referencing the extra day of rest for today's first-inning arm... Maeda.

Furthermore the Maeda almost no-no was lost, broken up by a player named Eric Sogard. Ask a group of beer drinking chums at a neighborhood Wild Wings if they know who Sogard is and if so his claim to fame and you are unlikely to get anything but puzzled looks from that individual you are polling.

Maeda's no-no was broken up by, yes, Sogard. And he did so with a soft, extremely soft Texas Leaguer that in seemingly slow motion barely cleared the glove of Jorge Polanco. The rest of the story is what will be remembered most by those that took part in that game... a slow bouncing baseball dying in the centerfield grass because the exit velocity on the ball, off the bat of Sogard, was fewer than 10 mph than the average hit baseball in MLB.

Maeda struck out 12 in the victory giving him a crazy-good 33:6 strike outs to bases on balls ratio across 31.2 innings of work this season.

Aaron Civale had cups of big league coffee last summer. So this isn't his first rodeo but it is a tour that isn't normal or routine even for a young kid that has done most of his professional work on the farm. Civale is coming off a complete game win. His outing was a setup, a picture perfect situation, in which he faced the cardboard cutouts from the opposing dugout, the Pittsburgh Pirates. Civale allowed 1 run on 5 hits while striking out six and walking none.

Civale is all of 25-years of age. He owns a 2.91 ERA, a near strikeout per inning rate and he has walked less than a batter per nine innings this Covet campaign. The right-handers xFIP is in line with his ERA. The young Twinkie is never going to overpower hitters or impress the girls with his heater. And his mind over matter will become more important than his arm speed in the next three-plus years.

What Civale does well, above average, is pitch a heavy ball and induce weak contact (35%) and sink his two-seamer late in the pitch to create close to 50 percent ground balls (45%). If you need evidence of my claim he won't win the cheerleader or the gold diggers hearts with his fast ball or devastating 12-to-6 curve the Indians' righty has a mere 10% swing and miss rate. Due to the mere fact that his arm speed will produce a fast ball that averages 92-mph makes it imperative he become cerebral with every pitch in every innings of his career.

Another plus-variable for Civale is his ability to throw more than three pitches effectively. He nods yes to a fastball 32% of the time, slider (16% usage), cutter (29%), curve (15%), and change-up (8%).

Civale is one of those great High School athletes that got the headlines before being old enough to vote, was a good college arm that caught the eye of scouts and will be a big leaguer that produces successful streaks of unsustainable peripherals. Exactly the kind of run he is currently on. An unsustainable sub-60% z-swing rate, a 31% K-BB% will not, I REPEAT WILL NOT last, and a strand rate of 85-plus percent.

Despite the questions for these two righties moving forward today's situation and situational importance makes for a game in which the pitcher that makes that one mistake -- that bad pitch decision which results in a ball leaving the yard -- is the loser in a low scoring contest.

UNDER the TOTAL of 8.5 runs


AL WEST HI-ROLLER
3% Houston Astros -160

Play on the Houston Astros -160 (good to -175)

3% confidence rating

LIST PITCHERS: Sandavol and Valdez

The Astros are not as porous a group as they have portrayed in the first half of the 2020 season. They are a unit that wasn't and currently isn't excited about this season. They caught a covet break in not having to talk about the stealing scandal each and every night they spent on the road... this due to no fans in the stands... and despite returning home on a losing steak and a series in which they were swept this team has gotten better and healthier with each passing event.

Framber Valdez tossed 7.2 innings against the Rockies surrendering one earned run on seven hits walking one and striking out five.

The Houston southpaw's 3.03 xFIP points to a 7% HR/FB and 77% strand rate suppressing his ERA. However, his ability to command his arsenal, solid control, combined with a moderate strikeout rate that stunts regression, has made this longtime minor leaguer a smart major leaguer.
The visiting southpaw in this Minute Maid matchup is the only reason that this play isn't a Top of the Ticket release. Sandavol's best pitch is the one arguably the most difficult to learn, the change-up. If his change-up didn't rate as highly as it does, and mind you it isn't an elite changeup but good enough, this play may well have rated as a Big Ticket investment.

Sandoval, making his 14th career appearance and 13th start, has still yet to earn his first overall victory. The left-hander went four innings, allowing five runs on six hits and two walks, and fell to 0-3 with a 5.40 ERA.

Valdez' Achilles is his inability to miss a higher percentage of bats -- and his 57% hard contact rate. But what makes Valdez a play tonight, a confident one at that, is the fact that this Halo's group is pathetic... dismal... inept being the best term when facing left-handed pitching. Especially when you throw in the fact that the lineup hasn't faced Valdez giving him an added edge the first two times though the lineup.

The Angels are hitting a dismal .189 against left-handed pitching. AND Trout and company have a microscopic .267 OBP through the first half of the season vs LHP.

HOUSTON ASTROS -160

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin

4% Cleveland Indians -110

Kenta Maeda has been absolutely terrific for the Twins, but this is a spot where I've got to go against him. Maeda off the near no-hitter in his last start. He was also extended by a wide margin on his pitch count because he had the no-hitter going. The 115 pitches was a career high and his most pitches this season previously was 85. Interestingly, Aaron Civale is also off a career high pitch count as he's off a complete game victory. Civale has been a machine at home since getting called up last season. Tough matchup on paper but I this situation is one where I feel compelled to try and beat Maeda, so I'm backing the Indians to win this one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big al

Marlins +105

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

400% on Washington Nats

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mcinnis Hockey


NY Islanders at Flyers Total o 5 (-105) 4%
2% Avalanche pl -1.5 (+175)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Barner
NBA SPECIALIST
10:57 AM

MIAMI -6
INDIANA @ MIAMI | 8/24 | 6:30 PM EDT
The Heat have the Pacers on the brink of elimination after winning each of the first three games of this series by at least nine points. Moving Goran Dragic into the starting five has proven to be a smart move with him averaging 22.7 points, 3.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists in the series. The Pacers badly miss Domantas Sabonis (foot) and haven’t received many contributions from their bench, so I’ll take the Heat to earn the sweep and cover along the way.

118-70-3 IN LAST 191 NBA ATS PICKS | +4100
6-2 IN LAST 8 MIA ATS PICKS | +380

2-1 IN LAST 3 IND ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

INDIANA +6.5
INDIANA @ MIAMI | 8/24 | 6:30 PM EDT
5:56 PM
The Miami Heat have been better on both ends of the floor against the Indiana Pacers in their first-round series. Miami has shown more offensive versatility and has a coveted closer in Jimmy Butler. Miami also has made some key defensive stops. But the Heat, who benefited from 52 foul shots in Game 3, will likely face a fight to the finish from an Indiana club that should be desperate to avoid a sweep.

115-90-3 IN LAST 208 NBA ATS PICKS | +1612
35-26 IN LAST 61 MIA ATS PICKS | +658

MINNESOTA -111
MINNESOTA @ CLEVELAND | 8/24 | 7:10 PM EDT
10:21 AM
Aaron Civale has been outstanding, but the Twins thrive against right-handed pitching. Minnesota has won five of its last seven visits to Cleveland, and the Twins are 40-17 in their last 57 as road favorites. Look for Kenta Maeda to shut down the Indians Monday night.

28-16 IN LAST 44 MLB PICKS | +774
31-13 IN LAST 44 CLE ML PICKS | +1767

9-6 IN LAST 15 MIN ML PICKS | +194