Friday 8/21/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Bob Valentino

So far the total has not been set high enough in this Denver-Utah series for me to think about backing the Under.

Game One went overtime and saw the game sail Over the total by some 45 points.

Game Two was decided in regulation but also was able to clear the Over posted by an easy 12 points.

Game Three?

I suggest you stay with the Over yet again, as Denver comes into this one having gone Over the total in ALL 10 of their games since arriving in the state of Florida. As for Utah, after playing their first 2 games in Orlando Under the total, they have gone 7-1 Over the total in their last 8 games contested in the Sunshine State.

These teams did play in the 8 game slate that saw the NBA restart and obviously that game also landed Over the posted price to make it 5 of the last 8 series meetings between these Western Conference rivals Over the total.

Donovan Mitchell followed a 57 point performance in Game One with a more balanced 30 points and 8 assists effort in Game Two as the Jazz shot 19 of 33 from behind the arc in scoring 124 points. They are expected to get the scoring of Mike Conley Jr. back for this contest today too.

Denver has Jokic in the middle coming off a 28 point effort and there really isn't anyone on Utah that can stop him if he wishes to assert himself.

I say Over we go in Game Three.

2* DENVER-UTAH OVER

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Mitchell Newman

Friday's comp play is the game on the MLB card that I see being the pitching showcase of the night.

Philadelphia with Aaron Nola and Atlanta with Max Fried to hold Under the total.

Nola has been stellar in the month of August, as he has allowed just 2 earned runs to score on 8 hits and he has worked 21 complete innings. In those 21 innings pitched he has fanned 30 batters, with 2 of those 3 starts holding Under the posted total.

The one Over in that stretch was a 13-8 win over Atlanta, but don't blame Nola, he worked 8 strong with just 2 hits and a run allowed! He is now 11-5 for his career against the Braves with a 2.82 ERA.

Max Fried has been the Braves "stopper" this season as he comes into this start at 3-0 with a slim 1.24 ERA. That includes 5 scoreless with 4 hits allowed in an 8-0 Braves win over the Phillies earlier this month.

As you can see, a pair of pitchers very much on top of their games right now.

Phillies-Braves to hold Under.

4* PHILADELPHIA-ATLANTA UNDER

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Monmouth Park

Monmouth Park - Race 3	Win, Place and Show Exacta, 50-Cent Trifecta and 10-Cent Superfecta Daily Double (Races 3-4)/50-Cent Pick 3 (Races 3-4-5) 50-Cent Pick 4 (Races 3-4-5-6)
Claiming $12,500 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 84 • Purse: $25,000 • Post: 5:52P
(PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE FEBRUARY 21. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, FOR EACH $1,000 TO $10,500 1 LB. (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $8,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Basic Race. This race has a mixed pace scenario. Check on scratches of any of the Front-runners (to look for a lone Front-runner). * KEY ANGLES * FOXY MISCHIEF: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a la yoff. ARCELOR: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. HERO FOR HIRE: Today is a sprint and this is the horse's third or fourth start after a layoff. AGORA: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse ha s run well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. MISS JAK: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating.
4	FOXY MISCHIEF	6/1	5/1
3	ARCELOR	2/1	6/1
1	HERO FOR HIRE	7/2	7/1
8	AGORA	4/1	9/1
6	MISS JAK	7/2	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	HERO FOR HIRE	1	7/2	Front-runner	80	81	93.2	78.2	71.2
5	SUZ	5	10/1	Front-runner	79	69	79.4	57.4	45.4
2	OVERTIME OLIVIA	2	15/1	Front-runner	78	75	78.2	60.2	46.7
8	AGORA	8	4/1	Stalker	86	82	84.6	83.0	75.0
6	MISS JAK	6	7/2	Stalker	85	74	78.2	79.0	72.0
4	FOXY MISCHIEF	4	6/1	Stalker	95	87	77.0	74.4	67.9
3	ARCELOR	3	2/1	Stalker	82	80	68.8	83.6	79.1
7	LIGHTS DOWN LOW	7	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	66	54.4	60.8	47.3

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 6	$1 Exacta /$1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta(.10cent minimum wager) $1 Daily Double
Maiden • 300 Yards • Dirt • Age 2 • CR: 84 • Purse: $8,000 • Post: 9:25P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * HI HIGH HOPES: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LETHAL DREAM: Quarter horse has the highest la st race Equibase Speed Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. NUCLEAR OPTION: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surfac e.
2	HI HIGH HOPES	7/2	3/1
6	LETHAL DREAM	3/1	9/2
4	NUCLEAR OPTION	3/1	6/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DAYSHEGO	1	10/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0
2	HI HIGH HOPES	2	7/2	Average/Trouble-prone	84	75	5.4	0.0	0.0
4	NUCLEAR OPTION	4	3/1	Average/Trouble-prone	82	65	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	LETHAL DREAM	6	3/1	Slow	81	68	0.0	0.0	0.0

Unknown Running Style: HEARTLESS CREDITOR (2/1) [Jockey: Andrade Jr Oscar - Trainer: Glenn Jr James W], A BETTER REASON (10/1) [Jockey: Roman Jonathan - Trainer: Figueroa Roman].

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Charles Town - Race #1 - Post: 7:00pm - Maiden Claiming - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $17,000 Class Rating: 50

Rating:

#6 NO SUGAR NO CREAM (ML=4/1)
#1 RUMOURIST (ML=7/2)


NO SUGAR NO CREAM - I usually like playing sprinters who are 3-4 races into a return. Was in a $12,500 Maiden Claiming race at Charles Town last out. That event had a class rating of 55 and she is moving down in this race. A certain contender. She has the highest EPS (earnings per start). Give the once over to this animal. RUMOURIST - The way this event sets up this mare will be in perfect stalking position when they enter the stretch run. After the event aboard this animal on July 17th, the jockey is going to know the mare much better. Based on workouts, I look for this mare to run a big race. Ran in the last race against much better horses at Charles Town. The move down the class ladder should suit her well.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 LA DUQUESA (ML=2/1), #4 RICH IMAGE (ML=9/2), #2 SCORE ONE MORE (ML=5/1),

LA DUQUESA - Jul 11th is the last time we've seen this mare around. Have to be a little bit leery. This horse likes to be there at the wire, but doesn't usually finish on top. Don't put in the top spot. RICH IMAGE - Would have to get quite a bit more than the M/L odds of 9/2 to play this horse. SCORE ONE MORE - Would be taking an underlay on this thoroughbred at the probable odds of 5/1.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #6 NO SUGAR NO CREAM on the nose if you can get odds of 3/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Skip
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Belterra Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $7500 Class Rating: 84

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE IN 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 SPEARETTE 5/2
# 6 HAUTE PROSPECT 5/1
# 5 FASHION ENVY 7/2

SPEARETTE looks to be a very good contender. A solid 81 avg Equibase class rating may give this mare a distinct class edge versus this field. Formidable average Speed Figures in dirt route races make this horse a solid choice. With a sound jockey who has won at a very good 22 percent clip over the last 30 days. This has to be one of the top choices. HAUTE PROSPECT - When a conditioner brings any racer back this soon it is a positive sign. FASHION ENVY - Formidable selection to take this race going in a dirt route. Will probably compete strongly in the pace battle which bodes well with this group of horses in this race.

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 86

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS. WEIGHT, 122 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE MAY 15 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000, IF FOR $18,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 TRUMP UM 9/5
# 5 FOREIGN PROTOCOL 2/1
# 4 DARK PROOF 6/1

I think TRUMP UM is a formidable choice. Will most likely be one of the front-runners of the pack going into the halfway point of the contest. Ran a strong last race. FOREIGN PROTOCOL - When Howey uses Gomez there's a good chance for profits. One of the most respectable win percentages between this jockey and trainer make this gelding dangerous. DARK PROOF - Has been racing very well and has among the top speed in the race for today's distance.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Remington Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:59pm - Allowance - 6.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $38,250 Class Rating: 80

Rating:

#2 NOVEMBER MIKE (ML=7/2)


NOVEMBER MIKE - The jockey and handler combination have a positive return on investment when they work together. This should be an easier task than what he was asked last time out against 'open' company. Dropping in class figure points from his Aug 9th race at Lone Star Park. Based on that data point, I will give this horse the advantage.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 VALENTINE GUY (ML=5/2), #7 SHIPMAN'S SONG (ML=5/1), #8 BOSS HOSS ROSS (ML=6/1),

VALENTINE GUY - Jul 29th is the last time we've seen this gelding around. Have to be a little bit leery. SHIPMAN'S SONG - This steed didn't go to the front and didn't make up ground in the stretch last time he ran. BOSS HOSS ROSS - Can't wager on this mount in today's sprint of 6 1/2 furlongs. Hasn't even finished in the money in a sprint race recently. This gelding probably needs a better pace situation to make his closing rush.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 NOVEMBER MIKE is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [3,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Saratoga

08/21/20, SAR, Race 4, 2.54 ET
08/21/20,SAR,4,6F [Dirt] 1:08:00 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $62,000. FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Seven Seven	5-1	Saez L	Breen Kelly J.	EW	36.73	1.76/$1
097.8400	4	Eagle Orb	2-1	Ortiz. Jr. I	Rodriguez Rudy R.	J	36.73	1.76/$1
097.1408	8	Citizen K	5/2	Ortiz J L	DePaz Horacio	T	36.73	1.76/$1
096.9969	7	It's Gravy	8-1	Castellano J	Breen Kelly J.		36.73	1.76/$1
095.4628	1	Crock of Gold	12-1	Gaffalione T	Sciacca Gary		33.93	1.59/$1
095.3736	6	Cape Cod Gem	10-1	Lezcano J	Hennig Mark A.		36.73	1.76/$1
095.1798	2	Sonic Speed	6-1	Alvarado J	Kimmel John C.		36.73	1.76/$1
091.0854	5	What's My Category	12-1	Davis D	Martin Carlos F.		36.73	1.76/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 28.00, ROI 1.74/$1

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Mike Wynn

Free Pick: Milwaukee w/Houser -160 over Pittsburgh

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Razor Sharp

YOUR RAZOR SHARP FREE PICK FOR FRIDAY: OAKLAND (Fiers) Evenover LA Angels

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Totals4U

Friday's Free Selection: Toronto Blue Jays/Tampa Bay Rays over 8 1/2

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Roz Wins

Roz's FRIDAY, AUGUST 21, 2020 Free Pick

MLB

979. Diamondbacks -1.15 (6:45 PT /9:45 ET)

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Atlantic Sports

Friday's Free Selection from Atlantic Sports: Milwaukee Brewers - 160

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#1 Sports

Friday's Free Play: Tampa Bay Rays - 160