Saturday 8/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 7:30PM ET:
DC UNITED @ PHILADELPHIA UNION PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Philadelphia Win Money Line
-140

The Philadelphia Union and DC United are close to opposite extremes of the Eastern Conference standings heading into Saturday’s showdown in the City of Brotherly Love. Philadelphia is two spots from the top of the table, with a 3-1-3 record that is good for 12 points. DC United’s 1-3-3 mark gives it six points and leaves it two places from the cellar. With Philadelphia also enjoying the benefit of its home field for this one, all signs point point to more success for it and another loss for DC. The Union has been outstanding of late, with only one loss in its past nine matches–and that was to eventual champion Portland in the semifinals of the MLS is Back Tournament. They are coming off a 1-0 shutout of the New York Red Bulls on Tuesday. Kacper Przybylko was up to his usual tricks with the lone goal during that tilt. DC, on the other hand, failed to make it out of the group stage in Orlando, drew with a mediocre FC Cincinnati squad, and then lost 2-1 at home against New England (seventh place in the East) on Tuesday. The Black and Red are 0-2 in their last two matches in this head-to-head series and lost those by a combined 8-2 scored (both taking place last August during the 2019 Major League Soccer regular season). In seven matches, they have scored just twice during the run of play (not off set pieces or penalty kicks). Philadelphia should roll.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 7:30PM ET:
CHICAGO FIRE @ NEW YORK CITY FC PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

NYCFC Win Money Line
-135

New York City FC has recovered from a disastrous start to the 2019-20 campaign with a solid 3-2-0 record in its past five matches. The Pigeons won their last group-stage contest at the MLS is Back Tournament and beat Toronto 3-1 in the round of 16 (did not count in the regular-season standings) before succumbing to eventual champion Portland. Despite losing at the New York Red Bulls 1-0 last week, they bounced back at home with an impressive 1-0 victory over Eastern Conference-leading Columbus on Monday. Captain Alex Ring, who has been struggling, scored the lone goal so perhaps that will get him going. As those two results suggest, NYCFC is simply a different club in its own friendly confines of Yankee Stadium than it is on the road. Visiting teams simply struggle to find their groove on the smallest pitch in Major League Soccer. Perhaps no club is more aware of New York’s home-field dominance than Chicago. In their last two trips to Yankee Stadium dating back to September of 2018, the Fire are 0-2 overall and have lost by a combined 3-0 margin. They have played three official road matches during this regular season and have a 0-2-1 record to show for it, most recently taking a 3-0 loss at Columbus last Thursday. Nothing indicates that the tide is suddenly going to turn on Saturday.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 7:30PM ET:
COLUMBUS CREW SC @ FC CINCINNATI PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Columbus Win Money Line
-120

The best team in Major League Soccer (16 points) will be back on the field when the Columbus Crew visit Cincinnati FC on Saturday. Columbus is 5-1-1 and will be eager to get back on track after suffering its first regular-season loss the year–a 1-0 setback at New York City FC on Monday (the Crew also lost to Minnesota on penalty kicks at the MLS is Back Tournament). NYCFC, however, enjoys one of the best home-field advantages in all of Major League Soccer by playing on a uniquely small pitch. There is no such advantage with Cincinnati FC. The Orange and Blue entered the league an an expansion franchise last season and have not been good either at home or on the road (they have actually been at their best at neutral sites, as they advanced out of group-stage competition in Orlando before falling to Portland in a shootout). Their worst performance in the bubble, however, came against none other than Columbus in the form of a 4-0 loss. The Crew have now won the past two meetings between the two teams by a combined 7-1 margin and they are 2-0 all time at Cincinnati with a combined margin of 6-1 in those contests. Columbus has surrendered just two goals in seven regular-season matches, one being a bizarre defensive miscue by Aboubacar Keita at NYFC that you can’t expect to happen again. Get all over the Crew.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 8:00PM ET:
NEW YORK RED BULLS @ NEW ENGLAND REVOLUTION PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Under 2.5, 3 Game Totals
-110

It will be a battle between two teams tide for sixth place in the Eastern Conference (10 points through seven matches) when the New England Revolution entertain the New York Red Bulls on Saturday. New England is coming off a 2-1 win over DC United on Tuesday, which ended a streak of six consecutive matches in which no more than two goals had been scored. On four of those six occasions, no more than one goal was scored–including a 0-0 draw against Toronto. Both of the Revolution’s goals against DC (by Gustavo Bou and Teal Bunbury) came off corner kicks. They have just about hopeless during the run of play (not corner kicks, penalty kicks, or set pieces). New York has also been playing low-scoring matches left and right. In fact, clean sheets by at least one of the teams involved have been posted in five consecutive Red Bulls matches. Since leaving the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando, they have defeated New York City FC 1-0 and lost to Philadelphia 1-0. These two clubs most recently faced each other in August of 2019, when they played to a 1-1 deadlock in New York. All signs point to goals being hard to come by this weekend.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 8:30PM ET:
MINNESOTA UNITED @ FC DALLAS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Minnesota Win Or Draw Double Chance
-132

FC Dallas were forced to withdraw from the MLS is Back Tournament due to a coronavirus outbreak in their camp, and in their three matches since have yet to score a goal. Prior to the lockdown, they had scored at least twice in five consecutive matches, including friendlies, but it’s clear that their lack of match fitness has not left them the same team. They face a Minnesota United squad that reached the semifinals of the tournament and currently sits in third place in the Western Conference. Minnesota lost by one to Sporting Kansas City, currently in first place, in their only game since returning from Orlando. They’re clearly in better form, and while Dallas have now had a month of preparation and are desperate for a win, their team just isn’t strong enough to be outright better than Minnesota for a full 90 minutes. True, they’ve only allowed one goal in their three games this month, so double your chances and take a Minnesota win or a draw.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 9:00PM ET:
SPORTING KANSAS CITY @ COLORADO RAPIDS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Sporting KC Over 1.5 Game Totals
-119

Sporting Kansas City’s win over Minnesota last week handed them a four-point advantage at the top of the Western Conference table. With only the first-placed team qualifying directly for the conference semifinals, Kansas City know they control their own destiny and just need to keep winning in order to maintain their position and obtain a tremendous advantage in the playoffs. They score more than any other team in the league, with 17 goals in their seven regular-season matches, and face a Colorado side that has given up more than two goals per game, on average, this season. Colorado allowed four second-half goals to Real Salt Lake on Saturday, their first game in a month, so match fitness looks to be an issue for them after having a 1-0 lead at halftime. Kansas City has scored twice in each of their first two games since returning from Orlando, and they should have no problem scoring multiple goals again. Bet on the away side to score at least twice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 10:30PM ET:
SAN JOSE EARTHQUAKES @ L.A. GALAXY PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Draw Money Line
+280

It feels unusual to look at the MLS standings and see the LA Galaxy, the league’s most successful club in history, sitting in last place in the Western Conference with just five points. Still, the Galaxy are a better team than their record suggests: other than one blowout loss to crosstown rivals LACFC at the MLS is Back Tournament, their goal differential is an even zero in their other five games. San Jose also has a differential of zero, scoring and allowing ten goals in their five games. San Jose handily won both meetings between the two clubs last season, but the two teams appear to be much more evenly matched in 2020. The Galaxy’s new star Chicharito is nursing a calf injury, and may not be ready to play on Saturday, and without his experienced attack the two teams will be even closer to each other. This will undoubtedly be an exciting game between two high-scoring teams, but when all is said and done, don’t expect a winner and bet on a draw.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 10:30PM ET:
REAL SALT LAKE @ PORTLAND TIMBERS PICKS, EXPERT PREDICTIONS & BETTING TIPS (Soccer)

Portland Win Money Line
-112

After scoring just three goals in their first five games plus the first half of last week’s contest, Real Salt Lake exploded for four goals in the second half to defeat Colorado and, for the moment, occupy a playoff position in the Western Conference. That said, they’re not known to be a scoring team, and while every team can pull off an impressive attack once in a while, most aren’t able to do it week in and week out. Salt Lake will have a much tougher time against a Portland Timbers team that won the MLS is Back Tournament in Orlando. After a 3-0 loss to Seattle and a postponement, Portland is more eager than ever to return to the winning ways they demonstrated at the tournament last month. Depending on other results, a win for Portland could jump them as high as second place in the West, and they’re a team that is capable of scoring wins against any other squad in the league. Salt Lake don’t allow many goals, so this won’t be the highest-scoring affair, but Portland should be able to come away with three points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 6:15PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: MALLORY MARTIN VS. HANNAH CIFERS PREDICTIONS

Martin Win by Decision Fight Prop
-110

The first fight at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Hannah Cifers take on Mallory Martin. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division. Cifers comes into this fight 10-6 in the MMA and just 2-4 in the UFC. This will be her fourth fight in 2020, in which she is 0-3 in the first three. She has been finished in all three fights as well, so to say she is struggling in an understatement. Cifers is averaging 4.68 significant strikes per minute, but only at an accuracy of 43%. Her main issue is the fact that she absorbs 5.64 strikes. Now her grappling has been what has gotten her in trouble recently. She averages 0.29 takedowns per every 15 minutes, but lands them at an accuracy of 100%. Her takedown defense is 66%, but in her last two fights, she lost by submission.

Martin is looking to bounce back from her UFC debut loss, which came in December of 2019, a submission loss to Virna Jandiroba. She is now 6-3 in the MMA. She is landing an average of 4.56 significant strikes per minute at 59% accuracy. She also is absorbing quite a few strikes per minute, 5.60, however she has never been knocked out.

I really cannot recommend laying this big of a price with Martin, but I also want no part of Cifers, who has looked terrible in her last couple of fights. Martin is about 50/50 on whether her fights end inside the distance or not, but I do not trust her here to get the finish. As a result, I will back Martin to win by decision.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 6:45PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: POLYANA VIANA VS. EMILY WHITMIRE PREDICTIONS

Viana Win Money Line
+110

Money Line Pick
The second fight at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Polyana Viana take on Emily Whitmire. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Strawweight division. Viana is 10-4 in the MMA, but has struggled in the UFC, going 1-3 in her first four fights. She has actually lost three fights in a row after her UFC debut win back in February of 2018. Her striking has been average, landing about 3.89 significant strikes per minute at 41% accuracy. She does absorb 3.26 strikes as well. Her grappling has been good at times, averaging 1.29 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Though her takedown accuracy is only 37%. Note that Viana has finished all 10 of her wins, six by submission and four by TKO/KO.

Witmire is 4-3 in the MMA, but has gone a decent 2-2 in the UFC. She has not fought since June of 2019, losing by submission to Amanda Ribas. Her striking is a bit lacking, averaging just 2.84 significant strikes per minute at only 31% accuracy. She does not absorb all that much damage though, just 2.95 strikes per minute. Her grappling game has also been decent, averaging 1.18 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Her takedowns is 66% and her takedown defense is also 66%, so she is better than Viana in that regard.

This fight is one that feels too close and one I would probably look to stay away from. However, Viana’s submission ability makes me believe she can get back on track with a win. Despite having a solid takedown defense, I have not prevented Whitmire from losing twice in the UFC by this method. It would be a lean to Viana, but a very small one.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 7:15PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: SEAN BRADY VS. CHRISTIAN AGUILERA PREDICTIONS

Brady Win by Decision Fight Prop
+140

The third fight at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Sean Brady take on Christian Aguilera. This will be a fight in the UFC Welterweight division. Brady is a perfect 12-0 to start his MMA career and is 2-0 in the UFC. His most recent fight was against Ismail Naurdiev, an unanimous decision win back in February of this year. Brady has excellent striking, landing an average of 5.53 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 55%. He is absorbing 4.8 strikes per minute, which could be a concern, but has not been a problem just yet. Brady also has terrific grappling skills, averaging 3.00 takedowns per every 15 minutes. He lands his takedowns with 50% accuracy, but defends takedowns at a 100% accuracy. Brady has won both his fights in the UFC by unanimous decision and will look to dominate this fight from the opening bell.

Christian Aguilera is fresh off his UFC debut win against Anthony Ivy, a fight where he knocked him out in the first round. This fight was in June of this year, so a quick turnaround here. Aguilera showed fantastic striking ability against Ivy, and is landing an average of 10.17 significant strikes, but only at 43% accuracy. He absorbs 4.07 strikes, so the damage could mount up if he is not careful.

Brady is a huge favorite here, which makes his money line unplayable. He does have much more of a balanced skill-set though as shown by his grappling, while Aguilera only looks to comfortable on his feet. I think Brady is going to continue his trend of dominating this opponent and will pick up a third straight decision win in the Octagon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 8:15PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: ALESSIO DI CHIRICO VS. ZAK CUMMINGS PREDICTIONS

Di Chirico Win Money Line
-116

Money Line Pick
The fifth fight on the preliminary card at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Alessio Di Chirico take on Zak Cummings. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Cummings comes into this fight with an MMA record of 23-7. He is 8-4 in the UFC, but is coming off a loss by unanimous decision back in September of 2019. His striking really is not the best, averaging just 2.47 significant strikes per minute. The bigger issue is he lands these strikes at just 32%. At the very least, he does a good job at limiting damage, absorbing 2.75 strikes per minute and has never been knocked out in his career. As for grappling, he has four submission wins in thee UFC, though is only averaging 0.75 takedowns per every 15 minutes. Not only that, but his takedown accuracy is just 28%.

His opponent, Alessio Di Chirico, is 12-4 in the MMA, but just 3-4 in the UFC. He is coming off two straight losses, both by unanimous decision. Di Chirico has been a pretty good striker, averaging 3.20 significant strikes per minute at an accuracy of 42%. He absorbs a little bit more damage than his opponent, 3.22 strikes per minute, but has also never lost by TKO/KO. The difference with Di Chirico is he has a decent grappling game. He is averaging 1.95 takedowns per every 15 minutes, at an accuracy of 50%. His takedown defense is also 83%, so he should be able to keep this fight standing. This fight is extremely close, but because Di Chirico is a better striker, I think he will be able to control the fight and win here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 8:45PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: MAKI PITOLO VS. IMPA KASANGANAY PREDICTIONS

Kasanganay Win Money Line
-126

Money Line Pick
The featured preliminary at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Maki Pitolo take on Impa Kasanganay. This will be a fight in the UFC Middleweight division. Pitolo just fought at the beginning of August, which resulted in a loss to Darren Stewart. He is now 13-6 in the MMA and 1-2 in the UFC. We know Pitolo has pretty good striking, averaging 4.95 significant strikes per minute. Though his striking accuracy is only 45%, something he needs to work on. What has me more concerned is his inability to stop a takedown. His takedown defense is just 42% and we just saw what happened when the fight was brought to the ground in his most recent fight.

His opponent, Impa Kasanganay, is a perfect 7-0 in the MMA and will be making his UFC debut in this fight. The crazy thing is he just fought recently on Dana White’s Contender Series – Week 2, earned his UFC contract on the show and is now set to fight in the Octagon. Kasanganay has been a very balanced fighter, averaging 5.53 significant strikes per minute and landing them at an accuracy of 58%. He absorbs just 2.27 strikes per minute as well, so he knows how to limit the damage. Kasanganay can also fight on the ground, where he averages 2.50 takedowns per every 15 minutes at an accuracy of 100%.

Pitolo looked so bad against Stewart and I do not see him improving after just a few weeks of training camp. Look for Kasanganay to ride his momentum off his Contender Series fight into this fight and he will pick up a UFC debut win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 9:15PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: MAGOMED ANKALAEV VS. ION CUTELABA PREDICTIONS

Anklalaev Win by Finish Fight Prop
-150

The first fight on the Main Card at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Magomed Ankalaev take on Ion Cutelaba. This will be a fight in the UFC Light Heavyweight division. It will also be a rematch from their last fight that took place in February of this year. Thirdly, it is a rescheduled fight from UFC 252 because Cutelaba had tested positive for Covid-19. Ankalaev won that fight within seconds after a controversial referee stoppage, so Cutelaba will be looking for revenge. Ankalaev is now 13-1 in the MMA and 4-1 in the UFC. He has won four fights in a row, with his only loss coming back in 2018. He will look to keep this fight standing, averaging 3.46 significant strikes per minute. He absorbs just 1.24 strikes, so his striking defense has looked elite thus far. His grappling game is lacking, but at the very least, he has a takedown defense of 85%.

Ion Cutelaba comes into this fight 15-5 in the MMA, but just 5-5 in the UFC. He is landing an average of 5.29 significant strikes per minute, but only at an accuracy of 39%. On the ground is where Cutelaba will want this fight as he is averaging 2.59 takedowns per every 15 minutes. His takedown accuracy is 71% and his takedown defense is 80%. While Ankalaev was starting to wobble Cutelaba in the first fight, it is not fair to give him full credit because the ref really did call the fight ridiculously early.

Despite the early stoppage, Ankalaev had Cutelaba on the ropes and could easily do the same again. Plus Cutelaba has just recovered from Covid-19, so his strength or energy for that matter might not be what it was. Because of this, I will back Ankalaev, but will take him to win by finish to reduce the juice.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SAT, AUG 29TH - 10:15PM ET:
UFC FIGHT NIGHT 175: JI YEON KIM VS. ALEXA GRASSO PREDICTIONS

Grasso Win by Decision Fight Prop
-150

The third fight at UFC Fight Night 175 will see Ji Yeon Kim take on Alexa Grasso. This will be a fight in the UFC Women’s Flyweight division. Grasso is the massive favorite here and comes in with an MMA record of 11-3. She is just 3-3 in the UFC after going win, loss etc over her first six fights in the Octagon. Her last fight was a loss to Carla Esparza by majority decision back in September of 2019. Grasso is certainly the type of fighter looking to keep this fight standing. She is averaging 5.25 significant strikes per minute, but absorbing just 3.61 strikes.

Her opponent, Ji Yeon Kim, enters 9-2-2 in the MMA and 3-2 in the UFC. She won her last fight by KO against Nadia Kassem back in October of 2019. Her striking is also very solid, averaging 4.49 significant strikes per minute. Though her striking accuracy is just 33% and she is absorbing a lot of damage, 4.74 strikes per minute.

This fight may be closer than expected but I still like Grasso here. Kim’s striking defense worries me too much and I do not see her being able to do enough damage. Five of Grasso’s six UFC fights have gone to the judges and four of Kim’s UFC fights have done the same. I think Grasso will control this fight through all three rounds and will win by decision to get back on track.