Saturday 9/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Charlotte at Appalachian State 9/12/20 - College Football

The Charlotte 49ers visit Kidd Brewer Stadium in Boone, North Carolina on Saturday to play the Appalachian State Mountaineers. Charlotte finished last season 7-6 overall and 3-5 in the Conference USA. Quarterback Chris Reynolds who threw for 2,564 yards returns. Senior Aaron McAllister will lead the running game for the 49ers and last season rushed for 380 yards and five touchdowns, but transfer Tre Harbison could pressure McAllister from the start for playing time. Each of the top three wide receivers for Charlotte return to what should be a potent offense.

Defensively, Charlotte allowed 22 points or less in five of 13 games last season and were victorious in each of those five games. Tyriq Harris, who missed all of last season with an injury, returns as does Timmy Horne to give the 49ers a strong interior line. Safety Ben DeLuca also returns from an injury and will secure the defensive secondary while transfer Antone Williams from Duke will play a prominent role as well.

Appalachian State was 13-1 overall and 7-1 in the Sun Belt last season. The offense in 2019 averaged 433 yards per game and was ninth in the nation in scoring with an average of 39 points per game. Zac Thomas returns at quarterback after passing for 2,718 yards and 28 touchdowns last season. Marcus Williams will step in at running back after last season rushing for 652 yards and five TDs. The offensive line has four starters returning from last season.

On the defensive side of the ball, Appalachian State lost each of its top five tacklers from last season for a defense that allowed just 20 points per game and 336 yards. The secondary, which allowed only 207 yards passing per game last season, lost two starters. The linebackers corps must make up for the loss of two of the top three tacklers at that position and this season will be led by D’Marco Jackson.The defensive line has Demetrius Taylor and Elijah Diarrassouba returning, but must replace EJ Scott.

Recent Betting Trends

Charlotte is 4-2 ATS in its last 6
The UNDER has cashed in 4 of the 49ers last 5
Appalachian State is 10-5 in its last 15
The OVER has cashed in each of the Mountaineers last 7 in September

Free NCAAF Pick: Appalachian State Mountaineers -17

Appalachian State will once again have a title-contending team in the Sun Belt Conference although several players on the defense must be replaced. The Mountaineers have covered the number in 10 of their last 15 overall and have won each of their last 10 straight up at home. Charlotte on the other hand has lost 16 of its last 18 SU on the road. Final Score Prediction, Appalachian State Mountaineers win and cover ATS 40-12.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
ARKANSAS STATE RED WOLVES VS. KANSAS STATE WILDCATS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Arkansas State Win +10.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 54.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
It is safe to say that Arkansas State may have a little bit of an advantage here, having played last week against Memphis. They did not win that game, but they had success moving the ball at times and were able to cover the spread rather easily. Against the Tigers, the Red Wolves did most of their damage through the air. They threw for 299 yards, while rushing for just 125 yards. Their defense definitely did not look great, allowing 280 yards through the air and 222 yards on the ground.

The Wildcats are coming off a decent season at best and one where they finished 8-5 with their biggest win coming against Oklahoma. It was still a disappointing end to the year as they were beat by Navy in their bowl game. The Wildcats were not necessarily great at any aspect last season, failing to rank inside the top 30 in any of the major categories. Their passing defense could be deemed as their biggest defensive strength, having allowed an average of 202.9 yards per game, which ranked 33rd. That is good news for Kansas State considering Arkansas State can be a prolific passing offense.

It will be Kansas State’s turn to play with some rust, so I could easily see the Red Wolves jumping out to an early lead. This Wildcats’ offense can be inconsistent, so I am going to take Arkansas State to keep this game within double-digits.


Game Totals Pick
The total stayed under in the first game for the Red Wolves, then again, that total was set around 71-73. Now with a more defensive minded team like the Wildcats, scoring could be a little bit more of an issue. We know that the Red Wolves got run over against the Tigers, but Kansas State is certainly not as explosive on the offensive side of the ball. They will likely try to establish the run, knowing that it is the main weakness for Arkansas State. This will help burn the clock, making an under more likely. Plus, Kansas State can really frustrate the Red Wolves passing offense with their secondary and try to force them to run more often. Because Kansas State can counter an up-tempo team like the Red Wolves, I will lean to the under here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
EASTERN KENTUCKY COLONELS VS. WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Eastern Kentucky +40.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 55.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
This is another instance where one of these have played a game already (Eastern Kentucky) and the other will open their season here (West Virginia). Though Eastern Kentucky basically did not show up for that opening game, losing 59-0 to the Marshall Thundering Herd. The Colonels had a total of 166 yards of offense in this game, while they allowed 627 yards, 345 yards through the air and 282 yards on the ground. The good news is that West Virginia is very anemic on offense, meaning this game could probably be closer.

Now West Virginia was nothing special in 2019, finishing with a record of 5-7. This was more of a transition year as Neal Brown took over the coaching duties. Therefore, now that he has had an off-season to recruit, I am expecting the Mountaineers to be more competitive. Especially at scoring the football as the Mountaineers averaged 20.6 points per game. That was among the worst in the entire country. Their defense was not great either, having allowed 28.8 points per game. Nothing stands out in terms of their offensive abilities, except for maybe their horrible rushing attack, that averaged 73.3 yards per game a year ago.

Surely Eastern Kentucky cannot repeat that bad of a performance against the Mountaineers. So while West Virginia is almost guaranteed to win the game, there is absolutely no way I would back them to win by more than 40 points. As a result, I will back to Colonels to actually show up this time and do enough to keep it within seven touchdowns.


Game Totals Pick
The total is harder to predict because we certainly do not have good offenses taking the field in this game. As we know, the Colonels were shut out in week one and the Mountaineers were one of the worst offenses last season. West Virginia managed to score more than 30 points twice last season, and while they might be facing the worst defense I have seen so far this season, I still do not trust them to do everything by themselves. I will say that the Mountaineers’ were allowing points in bunches last season, so the Colonels might even be able to score a touchdown or two. I would probably stay away from this total however, because we just do not know how Eastern Kentucky is going to respond and how West Virginia will come out in their second season under Neal Brown. In the end, I will hesitantly back the under because I do not trust the Mountaineers to score all that much this season, regardless of who they play.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
SYRACUSE ORANGE VS. NORTH CAROLINA TAR HEELS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Syracuse Win +23.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 65.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
The season opener for these teams is extremely important with it being an ACC game. The Orange went 5-7 last year, while the Tar Heels went 7-6 under Mack Brown. This season looks to be promising for North Carolina with their returning quarterback, Sam Howell, under center. Howell threw for 3,647 yards last season, 38 touchdowns and seven interceptions. Their offense averaged 33.1 points last season, ranking 30th in the country. Their main strength was the passing game, where they averaged 285.8 yards per game compared to 188.2 rushing yards. Defense was an issue at times, allowing about 23.7 points per game, 143.5 rushing yards per game and 229.6 passing yards.

The Orange have a ton of questions to start the season after a poor 2019. Their offense was decent at best last season, averaging 28.3 points per game, ranking 69th in the country. Tommy Devito will likely be under center again, throwing for 2,360 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions last year. They averaged 240.6 passing yards per game and 154 rushing yards per game in 2019, ranking 60th and 71st respectively. Defensively the Orange were poor in basically every area. Pass defense ranking 110th in the country, rush defense ranking 109th. They also allowed 30.7 points per game last season, ranking 88th.

As bad as I have just talked about the Orange, this spread just feels way too high. We have already seen teams as big underdogs cover through just one week. The Tar Heels are by far the better team, but I do not think this is the game where they will win by more than three touchdowns. North Carolina only won three games by 23+ points last season, one of those being against Mercer, one being against their in-state rivals and the last being in a bowl game against Temple. Coach Mack does not seem like the type to run up a score, so it would be a lean, but I will look for Syracuse to cover.


Game Totals Pick
The total is set extremely high in this game, but again, I am not ready to run and bet a high scoring game. Given the circumstances of this season, I think fatigue could play a factor. I could also see a little bit of rust for both sides, having not had the same spring as they are used to. There is also no point in running up the score if this game gets out of hand by the second half. Last season, North Carolina had 10 of their 13 games stay under 65.5 points, while Syracuse saw seven of their 12 games stay under this point total. The Tar Heels defense is expected to improve this season, so I will look for them to slow down the Orange enough to keep this one fairly low scoring.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus texted FLORIDA STATE -pts a Replacement Free pick

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

---

September 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight, Woodbine Mohawk Park has a stake heavy 13-race card set to go. The 0.20 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

1-Lauras Love (2-1)-Did get bothered in the lane last week but the winner was probably not to be denied anyway. Program chalk is a serious threat and drawing the rail shouldn't hurt chances.
4-Karma Seelster (3-1)-Still looking for 1st win since adding Lasix back on 7/17. Has been competitive but is only 1-16 here. Using at a fair price and may benefit from a pocket trip and roll by late.
6-Perfect Storm (7/2)-Will need a slick drive to win but that isn't out of the question with Henry in the bike. Does like the track hitting the board in 9 of 14 starts with 5 wins, best to not overlook.

Race 5

7-Donna Soprano (7/5)-Winner of 4 straight was the odds-on choice in last 2 and has looked the part. McClure has options as this filly appears to be a cut above the rest and is probably a decent trip away from another picture.

Race 6

2-Voelz Delight (7/2)-Seems to be on the improve although couldn't seal the deal in last but it wasn't a great trip. Gets post relief and Filion should have an easier path toward a well-timed move than from the 7-hole at GrVr. Has hit the board in all 3 starts here and has a win over this surface.
3-Scarlet Hanover (2-1)-Big effort for another Grand River win and should be bet down off that effort. Best to respect but is 0-3 at Mohawk and won't offer any value. Using but will look to others to punch up the Pick 4 payout.
5-Twin Be Sunkissed (6-1)-Broke maiden in last at GrVr and had an nice try from the 7-hole at Wbsb to come 2nd on 8/29 in the Eternal Camnation. Sunshine Beach filly is getting better and if pace is hot JMac will be rolling late at a nice price.

Race 7

2-HP Napolean (5/2)-4-year-old takes a good drop in class and should have no excuse as long as Filion works a decent trip. Beat better here on 7/4 and this is a spot to shine but is only 5 for 39 at Mohawk.
4-The Downtown Bus (3-1)-Took a big drop to this level in last and came up short. Is winless in 6 tries this year but had been facing better. McClure steers again, this could be wake-up time and has won 8 in 25 starts here.

$1 Early Pick 4

1,4,6/7/2,3,5/2,4
Total Bet=$18

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's National Best Plays - 9/12/20

---

September 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s National Best Plays
Saturday, September 12, 2020
(Listed in chronological order)
*
*
Monmouth Park – 5th race. Post time 2:29 ET
3 – Queen Street (4-1)

Debuting daughter of Speightster trained like a very quick filly at Saratoga but didn’t quite make the meeting so she shows up in a maiden special weight sprint at Monmouth Park that should be well within her capabilities. The C. Brown-trained juvenile, a $90,000 OBS March sale purchase after previewing in 10 1/5 seconds, seems fit and ready for a major effort first time out, so let’s use her as a win play and rolling exotic single and hope to get close to her morning line of 4-1.

*
Kentucky Downs – 7th race. Post: 3:27 CT
3 – Tapit Today (5-1)

Had a right to be a tad short when a close fourth in the Matchmaker S.-G3 in first start in five months when last seen in July and returns in a similar type race while projecting to enjoy an easy pace-stalking trip. Though she missed a scheduled start a couple of weeks ago in the Eatontown S. at Monmouth Park when the race came off the grass, the lightly-raced daughter of Tapit sports a healthy series of recent drills that should have her primed and ready. With rising speed figures in each outing, the C. Brown-trained mare has a chance to upset her stable mate Regal Glory (the 9/5 morning line favorite) , so at 5-1 on the morning line she may offer value in the win pool and in the vertical and horizontal exotics.

*
Gulfstream Park – 10th race. Post time 4:48 ET
9 - Isolate (5/2)

Juvenile colt in the K. Ritvo barn should have won by much more than official three-quarters of a length margin of victory over the local main track in his visually pleasing debut early August. Was forced to check sharply in traffic into the turn, remained behind a wall of horses entering the lane, then displayed moxie when rallying between horses to be up in time while earning a fairly decent speed figure for a 2-year-old. Comfortably drawn outside in this first-level allowance sprint, the son of Mark Valeski should have clear sailing throughout and will offer good value right back at or near his morning line of 5/2.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 6th race. Post time 3:45 PT
1 – A Little Bit Lucky (7/2)

Cruised to an easy victory in his debut over the Golden Gate Fields all-weather surface in June and then finished well but too late to be a respectable fifth in a stakes race for 2-year-olds at Pleasanton the following month. Dropping into a much softer starter’s allowance sprint over a surface we know he likes, the E. Miranda-trained juvenile projects be forwardly placed throughout and have every chance in race that seems unlikely to have quick early fractions. Today’s extra half-furlong won’t hurt his chances, either. There’s good value to be found at his morning line of 7/2 if you can get it.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 7th race. Post time 4:15 PT
3 – Alice Marble (6-1)

Though finishing a non-threatening ninth, this daughter of Grazen ran far better than the line will show when finishing fastest of all (and galloping out in front) in her debut in June at Santa Anita in a fairly competitive maiden special weight sprint on turf. Was entered but scratched at Del Mar in early August and finally makes it back to the races for clever S. Miyadi, who has been on a tear of late in the Bay Area. With the barn’s “go to” rider A. Gomez taking the call, this state-bred 3-year-old filly is listed at 6-1 on the morning and has a chance to pull off an upset if she leaves with field and finds room to rally from the quarter pole home.

*
Golden Gate Fields – 8th race. Post time 4:45 PT
1 – Emerald Magic (6-1)

Added blinkers for the first time in his 11-race career and ran lights out when narrowly missing at 65-1 in a tough starter’s allowance sprint at Del Mar last month, earning by far a career top speed figure while winding up almost three lengths clear of the rest. Returns to his home base where he’s a two-time winner over the Tapeta surface, and with a clean break from the rail and a repeat of his most recent outing he may be good enough to pull off a mild surprise in this first-level allowance affair at 6-1 on the morning line.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

---

Woodbine - Race #8

#5 Pseudonym	Intriguing GP invader broke through last time for Joseph, who isn't shipping this far without purpose, and off that confidence builder, she could be primed for a biggie; upset special.
#2 Afleet Katherine	Odds-on favorite was 2nd in the local Oaks with a huge figure, so she'll be tough here, but that was eons her best lifetime effort, so she could bounce, at tiny odds too; backwheel time.
#1 Ballroom of Mars	Improving miss was a good 2nd last time and now adds blinkers, and while she's still a maiden, CDP doesn't run them where they don't belong, and the price will be right; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the 5, most notably her win last time and her price this time, so give her a look in all the slots, and especially in the first guaranteed 200k Pk5, and to kick off the second one as well, since the 2 will be keyed on a large majority of the tickets, but she could regress off the big Oaks run, and if the pick does improve, they could be meeting right in the middle, which means a win would go a long way to blowing both sequences up.

Woodbine - Race #9

#3 Elizabeth Way	Pace presser did well to draw outside the speed of the 1, and while that miss wired her last time, this cutback should help her, she fits nicely on paper, and she could fall through the wagering cracks too, while catching a favorite who may need one; look out.
#10 Cambier Parc	Stiff ML chalk will be bet off the board for Brown, and she's a G1 winner too, but that was against only 3yo fillies, she hasn't been out since last October, and she's also prepping for the G1 here next time, so there are some warning signals; trying to beat on top.
#6 Amalfi Coast	Major player is 2-for-4 over the course, so while she's done her best running of late on the Tapeta, she has plenty of form to play with these, and that 6-1 ML would be a square price if you can get it, and note that gaudy $3.75 ROI when Attard uses Stein; using.
Race Summary	The race flow should really work for the 3, who can get first run on the 10 and could be the controlling speed herself if the 1 comes out, so play her in all the slots, and especially in both guaranteed 200k Pk5s, since the chalk will be singled on a lot of tickets, even though today very likely isn't the one they are primed for.

Woodbine - Race #10

#6 Halo Again	Price player was a good 2nd in the local Plate Trial and seems to be on the upswing, and his running style will have him close to the pace, and give him first run on the top duo too, which might be enough to hold on late; can surprise.
#10 Curlin's Voyage	Stretch running filly looked good winning the Oaks with a big figure, and the gals have done well in the Plate of late, but the price will be on the short side, and the pick seems to be improving, so let's make her prove it right back; second-best.
#12 Clayton	ML favorite beat the pick on the square last time in the Trial and will be a handful here, but his form has seemed to hit a peak, so you wonder if he can move forward again, not to mention this 1 1/4-mile trip could be the leveler; mixed signals.
Race Summary	The upside of the 6 says he might have enough to turn the tables on the 12 and hold off the 10, and the risk-reward will be there too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in both guaranteed 200k Pk5s, and to kick off the 350k guaranteed late Pk4 as well, as budget players likely won't be covering his number, which means a win over the two heavy favorites will add plenty of value to all three sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

---

Laurel Park - Race #4

#4 My Queen Michelle	I'm willing to forgive the run over the off track off the layoff in hopes that she can get back on dry land and produce one of her better races. 4/1 ML price feels fair.
#1 Gifted Heart	Drops after the fading try in the Grade 3 Charles Town Oaks, and she has a right to do much better while getting back on a local footing she loves.
#3 Limited View	Much like the top choice, this one has never been much in the off going and figures to bounce back with something better today.
Race Summary	My Queen Michelle owns back efforts that would do the trick here, and she should be finishing late at a fair price.

Laurel Park - Race #6

#4 The Cairo Kid	Should be able to get the jump on his main competition, and his recent form has been heading in the right direction. Blinkers didn't seem to hurt last out.
#5 Point Driven	Lands in a softer spot today after trying maidens at Saratoga, and he's a bit interesting as a first time gelding this time around.
#7 Joycee Has Pizzaz	Went to Saratoga for the debut run and didn't show much at 42/1, but this is clearly an easier group than he faced that day, so it wouldn't surprise to see him wake up with the locals.
Race Summary	The Cairo Kid steps back into maiden company off a nice first effort with blinkers last out, and his recent dirt form is pretty reliable and competitive with these.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

---

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#4 BETALADY	Determined rally to nip odds-on fave, value remains with second-time Lasix.
#5 LADY LOU	Ran second in $400,000 stake to undefeated foe, strictly the one to beat.
#7 ALICORN	Set fast pace, faltered in lane, can control things better in here.
Race Summary	Betalady followed the 1-to-5 favorite through a single-file opening half mile and caught up near the wire after the duo trailed the field into the stretch. She gets second-time Lasix and the call to knock off another short-priced fave in Lady Lou.

Hoosier Park - Race #1

#4 AHDOUGHNOLUM	Duplicate of race two starts ago could produce 35th victory.
#2 SADIES ART	Raced closer to pace from similar post, notched 24th win.
#5 CARDIAC FASHION	Been close up until stretch against weaker foes, claimed by trainer-driver.
Race Summary	Ahdoughnolum, the victim of broken equipment last week, bounced back from a ‘lame’ excuse two starts back with a solid effort. He made a middle move past the odds-on favorite but couldn’t hold off the deep closers. Play 4-2 and 4-5 exactas.

Meadowlands - Race #2

#9 DE LOS CIELO DEO	Slowed by traffic, closed with a rush for second, today’s Best Bet.
#1 MY ALPHA ROCK N	Encouraging qualifier for hot barn after three weeks away.
#5 ITALIAN DELIGHT	Just missed from on and off the pace in a tougher condition.
Race Summary	De Los Cielo Deo advanced inside in the third quarter but ran into traffic and was shuffled on the final turn. He swung 5-wide in mid-stretch and closed with a flourish to just miss in 1:49.2. Play 9-5 and 9-1 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

---

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#3 Prince of Arabia	Ran evenly for third in the Rich Lee Stakes at 1 3-8 miles last time and turns back to 1 1-8th miles; solid player on the grass.
#5 Donji	Takes a step up off a second in an optional claiming race; likely close to the lead this time.
#7 Rocket Joe Copper	Was second in his last two and comes out of races that had fast fractions; he could very well be on the lead today.
Race Summary	Prince of Arabia is the class of this outfit and can make a strong late move for the victory.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#9 Isolate	Has a relaxed trip just off the lead and can on for the win in his only start; has twice worked since his last start and can repeat.
#7 Just Right Mike	Was a clear winner in May and figures to be on the front end of this one; a repeat win is not out of the question.
#6 Swaggy George	Was an easy winner in a race that came off the turf; was sharp in his only start and has some outstanding works lately.
Race Summary	Isolate was up in time and can adjust to the pace here; finished well last time and is set to make another strong run through the stretch.

Gulfstream Park - Race #6

#1 Choose Joy	Was very impressive in her only start, which came last October at GP West; battled every jump and drew off. Will be reunited with hot-riding Vasquez.
#3 Cory Gal	Was an easy winner in her first off the claim for Dibona; has done plenty of good and will get plenty of support here.
#6 Baccarat Fashion	Was runner-up to Cory Gal last time but beat her two races back; has a good closing move on occasion and fits in here.
Race Summary	Choose Joy is the upset choice over Cory Gal and Baccarat Fashion as she makes just her second career start. Has good works for Dwoskin, and this Munnings filly will put herself into the game at once.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
DUKE BLUE DEVILS VS. NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Duke Win +20.0 Point Spread
-110

Under 54.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
The 2020 season has brought all sorts of weird things, one being Notre Dame joining the ACC for this season. Now it will be considered an all-important conference game, whereas it would be normally be a non-conference battle. The Fighting Irish had another good season in 2019 going 11-2, but it still only resulted in a decent bowl game. Notre Dame ranked in the top 50 in a multitude of stats, at least on the offensive side. They scored 36.8 points per game, which was 13th. They were relatively well balanced, averaging 252.2 passing yards and 179.2 rushing yards per game. Where they excelled more was on the defensive end. Allowing 17.9 points per game gave them the 12th best scoring defense in the country. They were the 3rd ranked passing defense, allowing 168.5 yards per game through the air. Stopping the run was their only issue, allowing 153.1 yards per game.

The Blue Devils had a rough year after Daniel Jones departed, going 5-7 in 2019. Their main issue was their lack of offense, which ranked 114th in the country in total yards gained per game. Especially their passing offense, which ranked 110th in the country. The lack of passing offense meant they only scored 25.3 points per game, ranking 94th. That should improve this season as former Clemson backup, Chase Brice will take over as the starter at Duke against Notre Dame. Their defense also looks to be an issue as they allowed 29.2 points per game last season. Their passing defense was top 25 however, which should help them slow down the Fighting Irish this season.

With the addition of Brice, there is no doubt that Duke will be more of a threat offensively. I think they will be able to move the ball relatively well, so I will lean to the Duke cover here.


Game Totals Pick
The total may be the stronger play here as it has been reported that there is a 35% chance of rain and wind blowing at 10 miles per hour. Even with Brice under center for the Blue Devils, I would expect a rather slow start considering this is his first live game with a new team. Frankly, I do not see the Fighting Irish having as much success as they did last year because I think Duke will have the ball for longer periods of time. I could see this game being extremely close for the first half as the teams feel each other out in this new season. By the second half, it is likely that Notre Dame will start to wear down this Duke defense and start to pull away. Still, given the potential conditions, I do not want to back points in this game. Especially with the defense Notre Dame is expected to field. I will look for a score like 28-17, and will back the under with medium confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
GEORGIA TECH YELLOW JACKETS VS. FLORIDA STATE SEMINOLES PREDICTIONS

PICKS

Georgia Tech Win +12.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 52.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Florida State is looking to return to the top of the ACC, but we’re not expecting them to suddenly shoot up the standings. The Seminoles are now on their third coach in four years after hiring Mike Norvell this offseason, and he’ll be tasked with turning around a program that hasn’t finished above .500 in the ACC since 2016. Florida State might be able to exceed that mark in 2020; the team has one of the conference’s best defenders in defensive tackle Marvin Williams, and junior quarterback James Blackman will once again be under center. It’s this tiny bit of consistency that led Florida State to a seventh-place ACC ranking in the preseason coaches poll.

The team Florida State is facing on Saturday finished last in that poll. Georgia Tech was an ugly 3-9 (2-6 against ACC foes) in 2019, so it wasn’t a huge surprise when they were picked to finish in last place. While we’re not expecting much out of the Yellow Jackets in 2020, there’s some reasons for optimism on Saturday. Georgia Tech is 10-14-1 all-time against Florida State, and they won their most recent meeting and three of their last five. We’re not saying Georgia Tech will win, but we suspect they’ll hang around. It’s a bit of a risk, but we’ll take Yellow Jackets against the spread.


Game Totals Pick
Thanks in part to a porous defense, Georgia Tech saw the total go over more often than not during the 2019 campaign. The total went over in six of their final eight games, and it went over in seven of their final eight road contests. Best of all, the total has gone over in seven of their last nine contests against ACC opponents. Considering Florida State’s offensive familiarity (and questionable defense), we could see this continuing on Saturday.


There are some similar trends on the other side, as the total has gone over in four of Florida State’s last six September games. Plus, let’s not forget that the Seminoles defense allowed 25.1 points per game over their last 10 contests of the 2019 campaign. Georgia Tech averaged 17.2 points per game over that same span, and that includes a pair of losses where they scored a combined two points. We’ll see points on the board on Saturday…we’re taking the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
CLEMSON @ WAKE FOREST

PICKS

Clemson Win -33.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 60.0 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Clemson is coming off of a devastating loss in the National Championship, but they are coming back strong into this season. They are looking for an easy, confidence boosting game to start the year. The Clemson offense has Trevor Lawrence and Travis Etienne, so they will have the potential to score 50 against any team in any given game. Clemson was 10-2 ATS last year while favored by 24+ points. They are also 5-1 ATS when favored by 30+ points covering by an average of 6.6 PPG. Last season, Clemson beat Wake Forest by 49 points. Wake Forest has only gotten worse from last year. Quarterback Jamie Newman transferred before deciding to opt out, so the fact that they had the 20th best offense last year does not translate into this year. Wake Forest went 3-6 ATS in their last 9 games last season. Dabo Sweeny is the best coach in the nation. It’s hard to fade this Clemson team. Expect Clemson to fully dominate this game on both sides of the ball and cover easily.


Game Totals Pick
Last season, Clemson had the 4th best scoring offense scoring 46.5 PPG. Clemson also had the number 1 scoring defense only allowing 10.6 PPG. Wake Forest had a fun offense last year scoring 32.8 PPG but a bad defense allowing 29.3 PPG. Clemson should be able to score 50+ on this weak Wake Forest defense. With a late game garbage time touchdown by Wake Forest, this game should hit over 60 points. Expect around 63-70 points in this blowout game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football
HOUSTON BAPTIST @ TEXAS TECH

PICKS

Houston Baptist +39.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 74.5 Game Totals
-110

Point Spread Pick
Houston Baptist has not lost a game by 40 points since October 14th, 2017, and Texas Tech has not won a game by 40 since September 8th, 2018. Texas Tech ended last year horribly, losing their last two games and failing to cover those games by an average of 9.75 points. Texas Tech had a dreadful defense last season allowing 30.3 PPG. Houston Baptist had a phenomenal offense last season averaging 49.3 PPG. This offense against Texas Tech’s horrible defense will be able to score. Houston Baptist will be able to score enough points to cover this spread easily.


Game Totals Pick
The over in Texas Tech’s last nine games last season went 6-1-2. Houston Baptist’s game last week against North Texas had 88 points. Both of these teams have really good offenses and really bad defenses. Texas Tech’s offense will dominate this Houston Baptist defense and their defense will not be able to hold back the Houston Baptist offense all game. This should result in a high scoring game that will be around 80-90 points. Expect a high paced, high scoring game and for the over easily.