Saturday 9/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Carmine Bianco

Event: (415) UL Lafayette at (416) Iowa State
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 12, 2020 12PM EDT
Play: UL Lafayette +11.5 (-110)

CFB - UL Lafayette at Iowa State

Quick Synopsis: We'll take Lafayette here plus the points as your free play. The Ragin Cajuns come off a good 11 win season and return senior QB Lewis played a big part of that with 3000 plus passing yards and 26 TD's and only 4 INT's. They were a profitable 9-5 ATS last season. The Cyclones have gone 2-6 ATS against non-conference opponents their last 8 and were 5-7-1 ATS last season.

The free play is UL Lafayette +11.5 -110

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Kevin Dolan

Event: (200017) Newcastle United at (200018) West Ham
Sport/League: SOC
Date/Time: September 12, 2020 3PM EDT
Play: Total Over 2.5 (+100)

PLAY: OVER 2.5

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Dave Cokin

Event: (429) Tulane at (430) South Alabama
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 12, 2020 7PM EDT
Play: Tulane -8.0 (-110)

The popular concept in the early going makes some sense. That is, teams with a game under their belts opposing teams playing their first game have more of an advantage than in most seasons. It makes sense for obvious reasons, with practices being disrupted due to outside circumstances. In this instance, that thought process is leading bettors to believe South Alabama is the right side here. The Jaguars not only have the game under their belts angle, they also won outright as a double digit dog. But that's the rub for me. I was on South Alabama last week as they beat Southern Miss. But that win was more about the Golden Eagles being completely unprepared than it was the Jaguars suddenly being a good football team. In fact, I can argue that South Alabama should have won even easier than they did as Southern Miss was clearly not ready to play football. As for Tulane, everything I'm reading says they're as well prepared as they can rightfully expect to be. I'm a little iffy about their QB, they lost a very good running back to a season ending injury and they haven't played a game yet. But I'm a big Willie Fritz fan, I really like the addition of six grad transfers who bring solid experience to the team, and they are simply the considerably more talented entry here. My power ratings make the Green Wave -12 and I kind of like the fact the betting public is excited about the home dog here. I don't think it's a blowout but at single digits, I'm pretty comfortable with backing Tulane minus the spot.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bobby Ligs

Event: (403) Coastal Carolina at (404) Kansas
Sport/League: CFB
Date/Time: September 12, 2020 10PM EDT
Play: Coastal Carolina +6.5 (-105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA public betting, line movement September 12
Patrick Everson

LeBron James and Anthony Davis lead the Lakers against the Rockets in Game 5 Saturday. Los Angeles is a 6.5-point favorite. A win would put the Lakers in the West finals against the Clippers.

NBA betting odds are up for the lone playoff game on the Saturday schedule: Game 5 of the Western Conference semifinals, where the top-seeded Los Angeles Lakers can advance to the West finals with a victory over the Houston Rockets.

The SuperBook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s matchup.

NBA line movement

After dropping Game 1 by 15 points, the Lakers rebounded with three straight wins over the Rockets, including Thursday’s 110-100 victory. Los Angeles can put away Houston in an 8 p.m. ET tipoff, and The SuperBook opened the Lakers -6.5. There was no line movement through Friday night.

The total opened 215 at The SuperBook and inched to 215.5 late Friday morning.

NBA public betting

The Consensus, often indicative of public play, shows an expectation that Los Angeles will advance, but there’s two-way play, to be sure. Through late Friday night, the Lakers were attracting 56 percent of tickets and the Rockets 44 percent.

On the total, 71 percent of early Consensus picks were on the Over.

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723HOUSTON -724 LA LAKERS
HOUSTON is 86-67 ATS (12.3 Units) vs. winning teams in the last 3 seasons.

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NBA
Dunkel

Saturday, September 12

Houston @ LA Lakers

Game 723-724
September 12, 2020 @ 8:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
112.406
LA Lakers
126.864
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 14 1/2
221
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 6 1/2
215
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-6 1/2); Over

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NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 12

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HOUSTON (49 - 34) vs. LA LAKERS (59 - 21) - 9/12/2020, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 56-30 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games after 3 or more consecutive losses since 1996.
HOUSTON is 53-38 ATS (+11.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
LA LAKERS is 9-6 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 9-6 straight up against LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
8 of 15 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Saturday, September 12

Trend Report

Houston @ LA Lakers
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of LA Lakers's last 6 games when playing Houston

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WNBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, September 12

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WASHINGTON (7 - 13) vs. NEW YORK (2 - 18) - 9/12/2020, 12:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-3 against the spread versus NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
WASHINGTON is 6-1 straight up against NEW YORK over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (13 - 8) vs. INDIANA (6 - 15) - 9/12/2020, 6:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 4-3 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
MINNESOTA is 5-2 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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LAS VEGAS (16 - 4) vs. LOS ANGELES (15 - 6) - 9/12/2020, 3:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
LOS ANGELES is 5-3 against the spread versus LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
LOS ANGELES is 4-4 straight up against LAS VEGAS over the last 3 seasons
5 of 7 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA

Saturday, September 12

Trend Report

Washington @ New York
Washington
Washington is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games on the road
New York
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of New York's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New York's last 12 games when playing Washington

Las Vegas @ Los Angeles
Las Vegas
Las Vegas is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Las Vegas's last 8 games when playing on the road against Los Angeles
Los Angeles
Los Angeles is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Las Vegas
Los Angeles is 22-3 SU in its last 25 games at home

Minnesota @ Indiana
Minnesota
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Minnesota's last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 6 games
Indiana
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Indiana's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Indiana's last 15 games when playing at home against Minnesota

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WNBA
Dunkel

Saturday, September 12

Washington @ New York

Game 655-656
September 12, 2020 @ 12:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Washington
109.163
New York
97.746
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Washington
by 11 1/2
155
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New York
by 1 1/2
159 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Washington
(+1 1/2); Under

Las Vegas @ Los Angeles

Game 659-660
September 12, 2020 @ 3:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Las Vegas
111.743
Los Angeles
116.683
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Los Angeles
by 5
165
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Las Vegas
by 3 1/2
167 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Los Angeles
(+3 1/2); Under

Minnesota @ Indiana

Game 657-658
September 12, 2020 @ 6:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Minnesota
105.845
Indiana
107.278
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Indiana
by 1 1/2
175
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Minnesota
by 6 1/2
168 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Indiana
(+6 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement September 12
Patrick Everson

Luis Arraez and the Minnesota Twins host the Cleveland Indians in an AL Central battle on Saturday night. Caesars sportsbooks have the Indians as modest -117 road favorites.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a 15-game Saturday schedule, one game less than expected after the San Francisco Giants-San Diego Padres tilt was postponed by COVID issues. Among the marquee matchups is an AL Central battle between the Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Saturday’s games.

MLB line movement

The Cleveland Indians and Minnesota Twins resume their three-game set in an 8:07 p.m. ET contest. On Friday night, the Twins posted a 3-1 victory to move to 7-2 in their last nine, while the Indians have lost four straight. For Saturday’s game, Caesars books opened at Indians -116/Twins +106 and were at -117/+107 late Friday night.

The Dodgers had Friday off, returning home after taking two of three from the Arizona Diamondbacks. Meanwhile, the Astros continue what has been a terrible road swing, losing four of five against the Oakland Athletics to fall to 1-8 in their last nine games. Caesars opened at Dodgers -155/Astros +145 and moved just one penny through late Friday night, to -156/+146 for an 8:07 p.m. ET start.

The Chicago White Sox are arguably one of the pleasant surprises of the shortened season, sitting atop the AL Central with a 28-16 record. Chicago held off the visiting Detroit Tigers 4-3 Friday night and is on a 6-1 run entering Saturday’s 7:10 p.m. ET meeting with Detroit. The line for this game was not posted by late Friday night.

MLB public betting

The Consensus leaned toward the Twins, who were attracting 61 percent of picks against the Indians through Friday night. And it’s no surprise at all that the Dodgers were drawing 68 percent of early Consensus picks against the struggling Astros.

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951BALTIMORE -952 NY YANKEES
BALTIMORE is 22-5 SU (17 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

953ATLANTA -954 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 44-17 SU (25.3 Units) as an underdog of +100 to +150 over the last 2 seasons.

955PHILADELPHIA -956 MIAMI
PHILADELPHIA is 33-51 SU (-23.1 Units) in road games against division opponents in the last 3 seasons.

957NY METS -958 TORONTO
TORONTO is 163-153 SU (-5.3 Units) in home games in September games since 1996.

959BOSTON -960 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 29-16 SU (11.4 Units) in home games after having lost 4 or 5 of their last 6 games in the last 3 seasons.

961PITTSBURGH -962 KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 3-13 SU (-11.3 Units) in home games against NL Central opponents in the last 3 seasons.

963OAKLAND -964 TEXAS
TEXAS are 11-19 SU (-13.8 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

965DETROIT -966 CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX is 26-12 SU (16.6 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

967CHICAGO CUBS -968 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 5-16 SU (-12.5 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .245 or worse in the current season.

969LA ANGELS -970 COLORADO
LA ANGELS are 3-13 SU (-11.1 Units) vs. a team with a terrible bullpen whose ERA is 5.20 or worse in the current season.

971SEATTLE -972 ARIZONA
SEATTLE is 24-14 SU (9.9 Units) vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

973CINCINNATI -974 ST LOUIS
CINCINNATI is 10-23 SU (-17.6 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

975HOUSTON -976 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 34-25 SU (11 Units) in home games vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

977CLEVELAND -978 MINNESOTA
CLEVELAND is 41-18 SU (19.3 Units) in road games vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

979SAN FRANCISCO -980 SAN DIEGO
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 SU (9.8 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start in the current season.

981OAKLAND -982 TEXAS
TEXAS are 11-19 SU (-13.8 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Saturday, September 12

National League
Philadelphia @ Miami
Phillies (22-20)
Howard is 1-2, 6.00 in five starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-5 Totals: over 3-2

— Philly lost five of its last eight games.
— Phillies lost four of their last six road games.
— Over is 9-3-1 in their last 13 road games.

Marlins (21-20):
Urena allowed three runs in five IP (80 PT) in his first ’20 start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: 0-0-1

— Miami won five of its last eight games overall.
— Marlins lost 10 of their last 13 home games.
— Over is 7-1-1 in their last nine games.

Atlanta @ Washington
Braves (26-19):
Anderson is 2-0, 3.99 in his first three MLB starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: 1-1-1

— Braves are 3-5 in their last eight games- they scored 36 runs last three games.
— Atlanta won five of its last six road games.
— Over is 11-2-2 in their last 15 games.

Nationals (17-26):
Corbin is 0-4, 5.60 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 3.33 in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-6 Team in first 5 innings: 4-4
Allowed run in first inning: 1-8 Totals: under 5-3

— Washington won five of its last seven games.
— Nationals are 4-10 in their last 14 home games.
— Under is 3-2 in their last five home games.

Chicago @ Milwaukee
Cubs (26-20):
Hendricks is 2-0, 1.29 in his last two starts; he is 2-2, 5.24 on the road.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 5-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-9 Totals: over 6-3

— Cubs lost five of their last eight games overall.
— Chicago is 4-3 in its last seven road games.
— Under is 8-1-1 in their last ten games.

Brewers (20-22):
Anderson is 1-1, 5.63 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 5.60 in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4
Allowed run in first inning: 5-7 Totals: under 4-3

— Milwaukee is 5-5 in its last ten games.
— Brewers won five of their last seven home games.
— Over is 7-4-1 in Milwaukee’s last 12 games.

Cincinnati @ St Louis
Reds (20-25)
Antone is 0-1, 3.38 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Cincinnati is 5-7 in its last 12 games.
— Reds are 6-8 in their last 14 road games.
— Under is 14-3-1 in the Reds’ last 18 road games.

Cardinals (19-19)
Hudson is 2-0, 2.78 in his last four starts; he is 1-0, 1.54 in two starts against the Reds.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 3-6 Totals: under 4-2

— St Louis won five of its last nine games.
— Cardinals are 3-7 in their last ten home games.
— Over is 6-2 in Cardinals’ last eight home games.

American League
Boston @ Tampa Bay
Red Sox (16-30):
Eovaldi is 2-2, 5.24 in six starts this year; this is his first start since August 20.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-6 Totals: 3-3

— Red Sox are 4-8 in their last 12 games.
— Boston is 6-13 in its last 19 road games.
— Under is 8-4 in their last 12 road games.

Rays (29-16):
Glasnow is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts; he is 1-1, 4.74 in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-2 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-6 Totals: over 5-2-1

— Tampa Bay lost four of its last six games overall.
— Rays won seven of their last ten home games.
— Over is 4-1 in their last five home games

Baltimore @ Bronx
Orioles (20-24):
Kremer allowed one run in six IP (99 PT) in his MLB debut.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Orioles was outscored 16-1 in losing a twinbill Friday.
— Baltimore is 2-8 in its last ten road games.
— Under is 6-4 in their last ten road games.

Bronx (24-21):
Montgomery is 0-1, 7.11 in his last four starts; he is 2-1, 5.14 in five home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-7 Totals: under 4-3

— Bronx won its last three games.
— New York won six of its last eight home games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Oakland @ Texas
A’s (28-15):
Bassitt is 2-2, 5.06 in his last five starts; he is 2-1, 5.49 in four road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-4
Allowed run in first inning: 4-8 Totals: under 7-1

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Oakland is 5-1 in its last six games.
— A’s lost five of their last eight road games.
— Under is 12-7 in their last 19 games

Rangers (15-29):
Allard is 0-5, 10.07 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-5 Team in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-7 Totals: over 4-3

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Texas lost 20 of its last 25 games.
— Rangers lost eight of their last 12 home games.
— Over is 9-5-2 in their last 16 home games.

Detroit @ Chicago
Tigers (20-24):
Fulmer is 0-1, 8.24 in seven opens (19.2 IP).
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-3 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-7 Totals: 5-2

— Detroit lost seven of its last ten games.
— Tigers lost six of their last eight road games.
— Over is 8-6 in their last 14 road games.

White Sox (28-16):
Lopez allowed 11 runs in 9.2 IP in four starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-4 Totals: over 3-0-1

— Chicago won six of its last seven games overall.
— White Sox won 10 of their last 11 home games.
— Over is 4-3 in their last seven home games.

Cleveland @ Minnesota
Indians (26-19):
Plesac is 3-0, 0.95 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-2 Team in first 5 innings: 4-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-5 Totals: under 4-1

— Cleveland lost its last four games- they scored two runs the last three nights.
— Indians are 12-3 in their last 15 road games.
— Under is 10-5-2 in Cleveland’s last 17 games.

Twins (28-18)
Hill is 0-0, 3.29 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-4 Team in first 5 innings: 4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-5 Totals: over 3-2

— Twins won eight of their last ten games.
— Minnesota won seven of its last eight home games.
— Under is 18-6-3 in their last 27 games.

Interleague
New York @ Toronto
Mets (21-24)
Lugo is 1-0, 1.54 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 2-0-1

— Mets won six of their last nine games overall.
— New York is 2-4 in its last six road games.
— Over is 10-2-1 in their last 13 games.

Blue Jays (24-20):
Unknown starter
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Blue Jays are 6-4 in their last ten games.
— Jays are 6-3 in their last nine home games.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine home games.

Pittsburgh @ Kansas City
Pirates (14-28):
Williams is 0-3, 8.55 in his last four starts; he is 1-3, 8.49 in five road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-7 Team in first 5 innings: 1-7
Allowed run in first inning: 1-8 Totals: over 6-2

— Pirates are 5-9 in their last 14 games.
— Pittsburgh is 3-4 in its last seven road games.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight games.

Royals (18-28):
Hernandez is making his first start; he’s allowed one run in 6.1 IP in two relief stints.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Royals won their last three games.
— KC lost six of its last seven home games.
— Under is 10-3-1 in their last 14 home games.

Anaheim @ Colorado
Angels (18-28):
Barria is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-1 Team in first 5 innings:1-0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

— Angels won six of their last nine games.
— Halos are 3-12 in their last 15 road games.
— Over is 6-3-2 in Angels’ last 11 road games.

Rockies (21-22):
Freeland is 0-0, 5.40 in his last four starts; he is 1-0, 4.50 in five home outings.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: under 6-3

— Rockies lost seven of their last 11 games.
— Colorado lost nine of its last 13 home games.
— Over is 7-2-1 in their last ten home games.

Seattle @ Arizona
Mariners (19-25):
Sheffield is 2-1, 3.34 in his last five starts; he is 0-2, 7.90 in three road starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-7 Totals: over 4-2-1

— Seattle lost its last three games overall.
— Mariners are 4-6 in their last ten road games.
— Over is 6-4 in their last ten road games.

Diamondbacks (17-29):
Gallen is 1-1, 2.21 in nine starts this year, 1-0, 2.08 in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-5-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-9 Totals: under 6-2-1

— Arizona lost 18 of its last 22 games overall.
— Diamondbacks lost seven of their last ten home games.
— Under is 16-6 in their last 22 games.