Sunday 9/13/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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ARIZONA @ SAN FRANCISCO

ARIZONA
Arizona is 4-0-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Francisco
Arizona is 8-2 SU in its last 10 games when playing San Francisco

SAN FRANCISCO
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

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DALLAS @ LA RAMS

DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games when playing on the road against LA Rams
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games when playing LA Rams

LA RAMS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Rams's last 6 games when playing at home against Dallas
LA Rams is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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TAMPA BAY @ NEW ORLEANS

TAMPA BAY
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Tampa Bay's last 14 games

NEW ORLEANS
New Orleans is 12-3 SU in its last 15 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing Tampa Bay

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Green Bay Packers Vs Minnesota Vikings
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: U.S. Bank Stadium
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: Vikings -3.5 | O/U 46.5 (Line History)
Packers vs Vikings Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
The Minnesota Vikings opened as -3.5 favorites, but that line has since moved to -2.5 at many books as money comes in on the Packers. The total opened at 46.5 and can be found ranging from 45.5 to 46.5 depending on the book.

Green Bay News & Notes
The Packers, once again led by quarterback Aaron Rodgers, enter Year 2 under head coach Matt LaFleur. LaFleur and the front office have made pretty clear their intentions of being a run-first offense, which takes the ball out of Rodgers’ hand. This was evident last season as Rodgers posted his lowest yards per pass attempt (7.03) since 2015.

The team also failed to address an already thin receiving corps either in the draft or through free agency, leaving star wideout Davante Adams as the only real option out wide for Rodgers.

On defense, the Packers return one of the league’s top pass-rushing duos in Preston Smith and Za’Darius Smith and a collection of promising defensive backs.

The Packers went 9-1 in one-score games last season, including the playoffs, a feat they are unlikely to repeat.

Minnesota News & Notes
The Vikings enter the 2020 season fielding a defense missing a couple of key players from last season, including defensive linemen Linval Joseph and Everson Griffen and multiple starting cornerbacks. However, new defensive end Yannick Ngakoue, acquired by trade from Jacksonville, should ease some pass rush concerns.

Minnesota’s offense was an efficient unit in 2019 as the team ranked 28th in plays per game but 16th in points per game. However, that efficiency is likely to take a hit this year following the trade of star receiver Stefon Diggs to Buffalo. Whispers of a possible contract holdout for stud running back Dalvin Cook could derail the offense further, but all indications are that Cook will play in Week 1 as he enters the final year of his deal.

Look for receiver Adam Thielen to have a big game against Green Bay. Thielen projects as a target hog for Kirk Cousins following the departure of Diggs and the reportedly slow development of top draft choice Justin Jefferson.

Betting Pick: Vikings -2.5

Green Bay won both meetings between these teams last season, but we are counting on a bit of regression in the win column for the Packers. The Vikings should not have too much trouble holding Green Bay to a low point total as the Packers’ weapon-devoid offense prefers to slow the game down anyway.

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Miami Dolphins Vs New England Patriots
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: Gillette Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Patriots -5.5 | O/U 43.5 (Line History)
Dolphins vs Patriots Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
The Patriots opened as 5.5-point favorites, but you won’t find the line lower than -6.5 at the majority of sportsbooks. The total of 43.5 has fallen between a half-point and one full point in most spots.

Miami News & Notes
The Dolphins will have their leading rusher from 2019 back on the field in the season opener – but it isn’t a running back. Ryan Fitzpatrick will be under center after pacing a Miami run game that produced just 1,156 total rushing yards last season. To help solve that major problem, Miami brought in a pair of free agents in ex-Eagle Jordan Howard and former 49er Matt Breida.

As for Fitzpatrick, his performance in New England is pivotal if he hopes to fend off rookie Tua Tagovailoa for as long as he can. Tagovailoa’s health was a major question mark coming into the season, but the Dolphins felt sufficiently satisfied that the Alabama Crimson Tide standout was ready to go that they released No. 3 QB Josh Rosen, whom they traded for just last spring.

New England News & Notes
This isn’t the Patriots team that fans have been accustomed to for the past two decades. Brady is gone, replaced by ex-Carolina Panthers star Cam Newton, who will be looking to capitalize on a juicy matchup with a Dolphins defense that allowed the third-most yards per game in the NFL last season. Bettors should consider the OVER on Newton’s passing and rushing yards here.

Why so much confidence in Newton as a rushing threat? The Patriots don’t have many better options at this point. New England’s running back rotation took a hit with word that Damien Harris will begin the year on injured reserve with a hand injury. With Sony Michel still working his way back from offseason foot surgery, the Pats will rely more heavily on James White and Rex Burkhead.

Betting Pick: UNDER 43.5 (-110)

Both offenses will be a work-in-progress for the first few weeks of the season, especially without having played a single preseason game. Expect plenty of three-and-outs in what should ultimately be a low-scoring slog.

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Chicago Bears Vs Detroit Lions
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: Ford Field
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: Bears -1 | O/U 44.5 (Line History)
Bears vs Lions Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
This one opened close to a pick’em, but the Lions are now 3-point favorites in most spots. The total of 44.5 has shrunk a half-point at the majority of sportsbooks.

Chicago News & Notes
Ryan Pace’s decision to turn to Trubisky over Foles surprised many; Pace explained that Trubisky won the job outright after showing vast improvement in accuracy and pocket presence during camp. Week 1 might just provide a nice confidence boost for the former No. 2 overall pick, who completed 73.8 percent of his passes with six touchdowns and just one interception vs the Lions in 2019.

As for who will be catching those passes, you can expect plenty of targets for a trio of Chicago receiving threats. Running back Tarik Cohen should see a healthy dose of action with starting RB David Montgomery (groin) out two to four weeks, while the receiving duo of Allen Robinson and Anthony Miller looked strong during camp and will be counted on plenty this season.

Detroit News & Notes
The Lions would love nothing more than to put 2019 behind them after they stumbled to a 3-12-1 SU record (6-10 ATS), losing their last nine after sitting at .500 through the first seven weeks. A big part of their struggles was due to the absence of star quarterback Matthew Stafford (back), who missed the final eight games. Detroit averaged just 17.1 points after he went down.

Stafford being back at full health is an important development given how sensational he looked prior to the injury. Stafford was on pace for nearly 5,000 yards and 38 passing TDs over a full season, though he didn’t have to face the Bears’ solid defense at all. Still, look for the Lions to throw early and often in this one, making the OVER on Stafford’s yardage total a decent prop play.

Betting Pick: OVER 44 (-110)

Detroit’s defensive line is in tatters, so Trubisky should be able to extend the success he had vs the Lions in 2019. And Stafford will happily air it out to help Detroit keep pace. We like this one to go well OVER the total.

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Seattle Seahawks Vs Atlanta Falcons
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Stadium
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: Seahawks -1.5 | O/U 49 (Line History)
Seahawks vs Falcons Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Both the opening odds of Seattle as a -1.5 road favorite and the total at 49 points have remained steady in the weeks leading up to this contest. Atlanta was a 7.5-point underdog when these teams met last year, losing 27-20 at home but covering the spread in the process. That game went UNDER its posted total of 49.

Seattle News & Notes
Seattle was one of the NFL’s most dominant teams in 2019 through its first 12 games with a 10-2 record. But after going just 1-3 over the final four games of the regular season, the Seahawks landed in a wild-card spot as the San Francisco 49ers won the NFC West. The Seahawks defeated the Philadelphia Eagles 17-9 in the first round of the postseason before losing to the Green Bay Packers 28-23, wrapping up a 12-6 SU and 8-9-1 ATS campaign on a 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS skid.

Losing Jadeveon Clowney was a big blow to this defense. Without significantly improving a defense that finished 26th in total yards allowed (381.6 per game) and 22nd in points allowed (24.9 per game) last season, the Seahawks will once again rely heavily on Russell Wilson to outshoot the opposition in 2020.

Atlanta News & Notes
Instead of bouncing back from a disappointing 7-9 campaign in 2018, the Falcons stumbled out of the gate to a 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS start last season. Remarkably, Dan Quinn managed to keep his job through Atlanta’s bye week in Week 9 despite having lost six straight games going into the bye. And even more remarkably, the Falcons did a complete 180 over the second half of the season, going 6-2 SU and ATS with impressive road upsets over the New Orleans Saints and San Francisco as double-digit underdogs.

The Falcons allowed 31.3 points per game on defense through their first eight games and tightened up to allow only 18.6 points per game over the second half of the season. Which version of the Falcons is going to show up this year – the one that looked like a doormat in the first half or the one that looked like a Super Bowl contender in the second?

Betting Pick: OVER 49 points

The last four games between Seattle and Atlanta have produced an average of 54.5 points per game. Look for Matt Ryan and Russell Wilson to put on a show in the NFL’s return Sunday and to light up the scoreboard to go OVER the posted total.

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Philadelphia Eagles Vs Washington Football Team
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: FedExField
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: Eagles -6 | O/U 45 (Line History)
Eagles vs Washington Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
The Eagles opened up as 6-point favorites, but that number can be found between -6 and -7 depending on the book. The total opened at 45 but has fallen to about 43 at most books with a couple of options in the 43.5 to 44.5 range out there.

Philadelphia News & Notes
The injury bug has been biting the Eagles early and often as they have already lost star guard Brandon Brooks and starting left tackle Andre Dillard for the season. Injuries to veteran wideout Alshon Jeffery and rookie receiver Jalen Reagor add to the carnage on offense for Philly.

The Eagles should field a top-half defense and are one of the best-coached and best-managed teams in the league, so they are a decent bet to beat their projected win total of 9.5 for the season.

Keep an eye on tight ends Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert in Week 1. As the Eagles deal with so many injuries to their pass catchers, Ertz and Goedert should be locks for a bunch of targets.

Washington News & Notes
The Washington Football Team underwent a full-scale regime change this offseason as they brought in longtime Panthers coach Ron Rivera to replace incumbent Jay Gruden. Franchise left tackle Trent Williams was shipped to San Francisco in the team’s biggest roster move of the offseason, and plenty of questions remain across the rest of the roster entering the season.

Maybe the biggest question surrounds starting quarterback Dwayne Haskins, who will have to prove himself to a regime that did not draft him in order to keep his job. A fearsome defensive front led by second overall pick Chase Young is promising, but this team lacks talent in several key areas across the roster.

Washington has the eighth-toughest schedule according to opponent win total projections this season and breaking in new staff and schemes on both sides of the ball in a COVID-shortened offseason is not ideal.

Betting Pick: Eagles -6

Six points is a lot to give up in a divisional matchup in Week 1, especially without teams getting the benefit of preseason tune-up games. But we really don’t see Washington keeping up with the Eagles’ far superior roster.

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Indianapolis Colts Vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: TIAA Bank Field
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Colts -7 | O/U 46.5 (Line History)
Colts vs Jaguars Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Jacksonville is accustomed to being a home underdog against its AFC South rivals, catching points at home for the 17th time in the last 20 meetings. The Jags have won each of the last five outright, but that hasn’t discouraged early bettors from laying the points with Indianapolis. The Colts had moved up to 8-point favorites at some sites as of Monday, and the total had dropped to 45.

Indianapolis News & Notes
If the Colts are going to live up to expectations as favorites to win the AFC South, they’ll need to figure out how to start winning on the road.

Indianapolis comes into 2020 having lost its last five games on the highway, allowing at least 34 points in each of the last three. Included in that streak is a 38-20 defeat at Jacksonville last December, which dropped Indy to a baffling 1-8-1 ATS in its last 10 visits to north Florida.

They’ll also be breaking in a new quarterback in Rivers, although the 17-year veteran’s transition to Indianapolis will certainly be aided by a strong offensive line, a solid receiving corps and a running game that ranked seventh in the NFL last year.

Rivers won’t have tight end Trey Burton to throw to, however, as the free-agent acquisition was placed on injured reserve last week. That could open up more opportunities for two-time Pro Bowler Jack Doyle, who saw a reduction in targets the past two years with Jacoby Brissett at QB.

Rodrigo Blankenship could also have under-the-radar fantasy value as the Colts’ opening-day kicker, replacing future Hall of Famer Adam Vinatieri. The undrafted rookie made 82.5 percent of his field-goal attempts in four years at Georgia and made all 200 of his extra-point tries.

Jacksonville News & Notes
The Jaguars are just 11-21 SU over the last two years, and their OVER/UNDER win total for 2020 is the lowest in the league. But Jacksonville has actually been one of the NFL’s best September bets since 2018, going 7-2 ATS in the last nine games in the opening month of the season.

The Jags start the season already thin at running back after waiving former first-round pick Leonard Fournette and placing Ryquell Armstead on injured reserve. Jacksonville worked out former Falcons star Devonta Freeman last week, but the team’s backfield Sunday is expected to be veteran Chris Thompson and a pair of young undrafted free agents in Devine Ozigbo and James Robinson. Robinson might still be worth a look in fantasy this week after leading the FCS in total yards after contact last year at Illinois State.

Betting Pick: Jaguars +8

Nothing seems to come easy for the Colts in Jacksonville, and it may take awhile for Rivers to familiarize himself with Indy’s schemes after spending the past 16 years with the Chargers. Jacksonville should be able to do just enough offensively to stay inside this number.

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Cleveland Browns Vs Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: M&T Bank Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Ravens -10 | O/U 49 (Line History)
Browns vs Ravens Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
The Ravens opened as massive double-digit favorites – that’s high for a season opener – but have settled into the -8.5 range at the majority of sportsbooks. The total started at 49 but is being offered at 48.5 at most places.

Cleveland News & Notes
The Browns and their fans had high hopes in 2019 but got off to a 2-6 start and couldn’t recover en route to a 6-10 SU mark and a 5-10-1 ATS record. The arrival of wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. from the New York Giants did little to bolster a Cleveland offense that produced just 20.9 points per game, ranking 22nd in the NFL; the Browns were also 22nd in passing yardage.

So what’s different on the offensive end in 2020? Another year of chemistry between Beckham and Baker Mayfield will help, as will the arrival of pass-catching tight end Austin Hooper from Atlanta. Mayfield threw for 285 or more yards in three of his first four games in 2019 – look for the QB and his teammates to try to get off to a hot start (and consider the OVER on Mayfield’s passing yards).

Baltimore News & Notes
It’s nice to have the defending NFL MVP on your side – and Lamar Jackson is ready to show the world that 2019 was no fluke. After an extraordinary season in which he posted a 36:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio while adding 1,206 rushing yards and seven scores, Jackson has reportedly been working on his passing game in the offseason and could be even more of a threat through the air.

The biggest beneficiary of such a development? Likely wide receiver Marquise Brown, who flashed elite upside as a rookie while finishing with 46 catches for 584 yards and seven touchdowns. He and tight end Mark Andrews are easily Baltimore’s top two receiving threats, and the OVER on Brown’s yard total Sunday is an appealing player prop option.

Betting Pick: Browns +8.5 (-110)

We don’t know anything about anything at this point in the NFL season – so getting 8.5 points, even with Cleveland, is too good to resist here. The Browns have a new head coach, a stronger defense and a more well-rounded offense.

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New York Jets Vs Buffalo Bills
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: Bills Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Bills -6.5 | O/U 40 (Line History)
Jets vs Bills Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Buffalo opened as a 6.5-point favorite and the number has been steady at most sportsbooks with a few moving down to an even -6. The total opened at 40 and can be found between 39 and 40 depending on the book.

Buffalo News & Notes
The Buffalo Bills (9-5-2 ATS and 10-6 SU in 2019) begin the season as the favorite for many bettors to be the first team other than the Patriots to win the AFC East since 2008.

Third-year quarterback Josh Allen got a big boost to his arsenal with the addition of wide receiver Stefon Diggs. Acquired in a trade from Minnesota, Diggs is one of the game’s premier deep threats and should help lessen Buffalo’s deep-ball woes in 2020. Allen ranked 29th among 36 qualified passers in deep-ball passer rating last year.

On defense, the Bills return one of the league’s top units, headlined by stud shutdown cornerback Tre’Davious White.

Keep an eye on Bills rookie running back Zack Moss this week as he projects to get the majority of goal-line carries against New York’s soft defensive front.

New York News & Notes
The Jets (7-9 SU and ATS last season) enter 2020 with major question marks on both sides of the ball. New York is missing its two best defensive players from last season with safety Jamal Adams traded away and linebacker C.J. Mosley opting out.

On offense, the Jets are breaking in several new starters on the offensive line and are already dealing with injuries to the receiving corps as projected starters Breshad Perriman and Denzel Mims have missed significant time in camp. Neither is likely to play much, if at all, in Week 1.

Slot receiver Jamison Crowder and tight end Chris Herndon are players to watch in Week 1 as the only reliable pass catchers on the team at this point.

Betting Pick: Jets +6.5

The Bills are rightfully the favorite to win this game, though 6.5 points is generous in a Week 1 divisional matchup, particularly in a season with no preseason tune-up games. The Bills and Jets ranked 30th and 31st respectively in points per game in 2019. We like the Jets to cover the number in a low-scoring affair.

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Las Vegas Raiders Vs Carolina Panthers
Date/Time: September 13, 1 p.m. ET
Stadium: Bank of America Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Panthers -1 | O/U 46.5 (Line History)
Raiders vs Panthers Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Maybe it is their new home in Vegas, but the betting public has pounded the Raiders in turning them from 1-point road underdogs to 3-point favorites at most sportsbooks monitored by Odds Shark.

The Panthers are also moving on in a different direction, as quarterback Cam Newton and head coach Ron Rivera are gone, so they may be fade material too with the potential for another Super Bowl appearance in the rear-view mirror.

Las Vegas News & Notes
The Raiders have a new energy about them in Sin City despite the COVID-19 pandemic preventing them from playing in front of fans there this season. Whether or not that travels with them to Charlotte this weekend remains to be seen, but one player who seems to have new life is quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr is hoping the team’s commitment to an explosive offense under head coach Jon Gruden will help him perform at a higher level in his new home. That said, rookie wide receiver Henry Ruggs III may not become a star in his very first NFL game, so the expectations should be tempered a bit. Vegas and bettors might be pumped about this team, but the harsh reality is the team lost five of its last six games to close out last season.

Carolina News & Notes
A new head coach (Matt Rhule) and starting quarterback (Teddy Bridgewater) are usually something a team and its fan base should be excited about, but these are not the Arizona Cardinals of last year. Regardless, Rhule brings an innovative mind to the Panthers from Baylor, and he will have some help from former LSU passing game co-ordinator Joe Brady as his offensive co-ordinator.

That duo will work hard to keep Bridgewater upright and healthy, as well as star running back Christian McCaffrey, who led Carolina in rushing yards (1,387) and receptions (116) a year ago. Bridgewater proved to be a viable starter in 2019 while filling in for the injured Drew Brees with the New Orleans Saints, although he will likely find that the Panthers do not have nearly the same weapons as his old team.

Betting Pick: Panthers +3.5

Usually, you may fade this type of situation for Carolina with new personnel in key roles like a head coach and quarterback. However, both Rhule and Bridgewater appear to be good hires – and smart ones at that. The Panthers may not win a lot of games this season, but they are in a good spot here to pull off the upset against an overrated road favorite.

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Los Angeles Chargers Vs Cincinnati Bengals
Date/Time: September 13, 4:05 p.m. ET
Stadium: Paul Brown Stadium
TV Coverage: CBS
Opening Odds: Chargers -3.5 | O/U 45.5 (Line History)
Chargers vs Bengals Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Early betting action on Cincinnati has driven the line down from its opener with Los Angeles going off as a 3.5-point favorite to the Chargers at -3. The total has moved even more significantly, going down from 45.5 points to its current spot at 43 points. The Chargers went 2-7 SU and ATS as a betting favorite in 2019.

Los Angeles News & Notes
For the first time since 2005, Philip Rivers won’t be the starting quarterback for the Chargers. Rivers left as a free agent to join the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles used the sixth overall pick in the draft to take Justin Herbert, who they hope will be their next franchise quarterback. Tyrod Taylor is expected to begin the season as Los Angeles’s quarterback, but Herbert could take over at some point if the Chargers get off to a slow start.

Los Angeles went 12-4 SU in 2018 and entered the 2019 season as a dark horse Super Bowl contender. But nothing clicked for the Chargers as they stumbled to a 5-11 SU and 4-11-1 ATS campaign, ending the year on a 1-6 SU and ATS skid. The Chargers have the talent to bounce back into wild-card contention, but they’ll need Taylor or Herbert to play well under center.

Cincinnati News & Notes
Joe Burrow had one of the greatest collegiate seasons of all time with the LSU Tigers in 2019, racking up 5,671 passing yards and 60 passing touchdowns with only six interceptions en route to a Heisman Trophy and a national championship. Burrow’s incredible season and Tua Tagovailoa’s season-ending injury made Burrow the clear choice with the No. 1 pick.

This isn’t your average two-win team. The Bengals have plenty of talent on offense with Joe Mixon at running back and some talented wideouts including A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd and second-round pick Tee Higgins. It’s going to be difficult for Cincinnati to turn things around overnight in the brutal AFC North, but this won’t be a 2-14 team again.

Betting Pick: UNDER 43 points

This line is moving in the correct direction. Joe Burrow has a bright future ahead, but the stout Chargers defense isn’t going to get torched. And it’s hard to have much faith in a Tyrod Taylor-led offense putting up a ton of points. This one should land UNDER the posted total.

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Arizona Cardinals Vs San Francisco 49ers
Date/Time: September 13, 4:25 p.m. ET
Stadium: Levi’s Stadium
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: 49ers -7.5 | O/U 44.5 (Line History)
Cardinals vs 49ers Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Underdogs are 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings between these rivals, and that’s where the early money’s been on this matchup as well, moving the line down to Arizona +7 at the time of writing. The OVER has also been a popular bet, driving the total up to 47.5 at most online betting sites.

Arizona News & Notes
Key offseason acquisition DeAndre Hopkins has been hampered by a tight hamstring throughout training camp, but the star receiver is expected to suit up against San Francisco. The limited practice time may mean Hopkins, who averaged 1,200 yards per year in his first seven NFL seasons with the Texans, may not quite yet have built chemistry with Arizona quarterback Kyler Murray.

Chemistry could also be an early issue for the Cardinals on the defensive side of the ball, where they’re plugging several new starters and a new defensive co-ordinator into a unit that allowed the most yards in the NFL last year. Arizona has not won a September game in more than two years (0-8-1 SU).

There’s been no better spot recently to back the Cardinals, however, than when they’re visiting NFC West opponents. Arizona is a sizzling 12-3-2 ATS in its last 17 divisional road games, including 3-0-1 in its last four at San Francisco.

San Francisco News & Notes
How will the 49ers respond in their first game since losing the Super Bowl last February? History suggests not very well. Over the past 21 years, teams coming off a Super Bowl loss are just 8-13 SU and 6-15 ATS in their Week 1 contest the following season. However, it’s worth noting that the Rams (last year) and Patriots (2018) both won and covered their season debuts after losing the Super Bowl the previous year.

The Super Bowl hangover theory isn’t the only negative trend that 49ers backers should be wary of. San Francisco has been a bad bet for years as a home favorite, going 6-19-1 ATS as home chalk in its last 26 attempts. The 49ers are also just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight home games vs NFC West opponents.

San Fran may be without key blocker Kyle Juszczyk as the fullback is listed as questionable with a hamstring injury. Second-year receiver Deebo Samuel is also questionable after being activated off the non-football injury list last weekend.

Betting Pick: Cardinals +7

I liked this wager a lot more when the line was +7.5, but there’s still enough meat left on the bone to grab Arizona plus a full touchdown. The Cardinals have shown they won’t be intimidated facing the defending NFC champs and their familiarity with the Niners should help make this another close contest.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers Vs New Orleans Saints
Date/Time: September 13, 4:25 p.m. ET
Stadium: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
TV Coverage: Fox
Opening Odds: Saints -4.5 | O/U 49.5 (Line History)
Buccaneers vs Saints Matchup Report

Opening Odds Analysis
Early bettors are buying into the buzz about the Bucs, betting Tampa Bay down to as low as +3 at some shops before the line moved back to +3.5 as of the time of writing. It’s a cheap price for backing the Saints at home, where New Orleans has been favored by 3.5 points or less just three times in its last 15.

Tampa Bay News & Notes
The Bucs might be the NFL’s most hyped team going into the 2020 campaign, and it’s not just because of the off-season signings of Brady, Gronkowski and running back Leonard Fournette. There was already a lot to like about Tampa Bay before those acquisitions, even though the Buccaneers finished last year with six losses in their last seven games and have won just four of their last 23 on the road.

Tampa Bay led the NFL in passing yards in 2019, was third in total yards, fourth in points scored and had the league’s best rush defense. The Bucs just couldn’t overcome 33 turnovers by QB Jameis Winston, as six of their nine losses came by a touchdown or less. To put Winston’s turnover numbers into perspective, Brady has thrown just 29 interceptions in his last four seasons combined.

If you’re looking to play DFS this week, be sure to take a look at receiver Chris Godwin. The 24-year-old caught a pair of 26-yard touchdown passes and finished with 125 receiving yards when Tampa Bay visited New Orleans last year, and he’s scored five majors in eight career games vs the Saints.

New Orleans News & Notes
The Saints have been notoriously slow starters under head coach Sean Payton. Last year, they needed a 58-yard field goal by Wil Lutz at the final gun to edge Houston 30-28 in Week 1 and avoid their sixth straight season-opening loss. New Orleans is also just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games in September.

Once the Saints do get rolling, however, they’re expected to look a lot like the team that has posted consecutive 13-win seasons. Already with WR Michael Thomas, TE Jared Cook and pass-catching back Alvin Kamara at his disposal, Drew Brees was given yet another weapon with the acquisition of Pro Bowl wideout Emmanuel Sanders.

Defensively, Cameron Jordan is coming off a career-high 15.5 sacks and three-time Pro Bowl strong safety Malcolm Jenkins returns to the Big Easy after six seasons in Philadelphia.

New Orleans is gunning for its fourth straight NFC South title, and success in divisional games has been a big reason why. The Saints have won nine of their last 11 games overall against divisional foes, and nine of their last 12 at home.

Betting Pick: UNDER 49.5

Without any preseason games to prepare, Brady may struggle a bit early this season until he becomes more familiar with the Bucs offense. This contest also features two of the league’s top four run defenses from a year ago.