Service Plays Thursday 9/10/20

**rocky57** · 09-10-2020, 12:19 AM

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider - NFL) - Houston Texans +9

**rocky57** · 09-10-2020, 12:23 AM

Michael Crosson (VegasInsider - NBA)
Western Conference Game #4 - Lakers vs Rockets
Best Bet - Lakers/Rockets Over 220

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:09 AM

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 10:33 AM

A veteran sportswriter whose work appears periodically in the New York Times and Los Angeles Times, Mike Tierney has covered the NFL for decades and reported from seven Super Bowls. Mike does not consider himself a pet lover. But he likes 'dogs, preferring to evaluate each game from the underdog's point of view. Mike has used that philosophy to dominate the NFL, going 66-44 ATS (60 percent) in 2019 and 63-46 ATS (58 percent) in 2018. All-time at SportsLine (2016-19), Mike is 282-222 on all NFL picks, returning $3,704 to $100 players.

KANSAS CITY -9.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
If a Super Bowl hangover exists, recent numbers suggest it kicks in later in the season, not during opening week. Since 2000, the defending champions have gone 13-6-1 ATS in their first game after popping champagne. Spreads pushing double figures usually call for a pick on the barking underdog, but Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes throws traditional thinking out the window. Counting the postseason, Kansas City won its final six contests by 10 or more points. Houston QB Deshaun Watson, who just received a Mahomes-like contract, has been lethal against KC but must adjust to life without departed WR DeAndre Hopkins. Good luck with that.

12-4 IN LAST 16 KC ATS PICKS | +755

8-5-1 IN LAST 14 HOU ATS PICKS | +253

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
FRI 9/4

UNDER 54
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
With the memory of the 82-point shootout in last year’s playoff matchup still fresh, the public has settled on a massive total. Consider that the Texans jumped ahead 21-0, which threw the game out of whack. Count on a more conventional game, perhaps with Houston chewing clock behind new RB David Johnson while adjusting to the absence of WR De'Andre Hopkins. Offensively, defending Super Bowl champs tend to break slowly from the gate.

8-3-1 IN LAST 12 HOU O/U PICKS | +470

Mike McClure
MONEY
FRI 5/8

KANSAS CITY -10
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
I like the Chiefs at -10 or fewer in the season opener at Arrowhead Stadium. Removing Deshaun Watson can be a tough assignment, but removing DeAndre Hopkins from the equation certainly helps the Chiefs defensively in this matchup. The Super Bowl Champs got even stronger on offensive by adding Clyde Edwards-Helaire to the mix. My simulations make the Chiefs -12.5 at home. Lay it.

6-1 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS | +494

3-1 IN LAST 4 KC ATS PICKS | +190

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:09 AM

Brian Bitler

10* NFL Kickoff Investment

Texans

I think head coach Bill O’Brien is on his last rope here one more bad year or bad start to the season and I believe he will be fired in Houston. This Texans team I believe will be eating nails and spitting fire out of the gate on Thursday. This is way to many points as I see this being a 1 touchdown win for either team here. If you can buy a half point to get to 10 do it. The road team has dominated the spread over the last 12 meetings going 9-3 ATS. Road team is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 meetings. Invest 10 units on the Houston Texans rotation #451 with the points

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:09 AM

Brett Anderson
THE DOG WHISPERER
1:54 PM

UNDER 54.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Maybe Patrick Mahomes, Tyreek Hill and the world champs don’t need preseason games as much as the rest of the league, but it’s hard to envision any team hitting the gas and going from 0 to 80 in Week 1. No preseason and little offseason is bound to keep scoring down. And as great as the Chiefs’ offense has been, K.C. still went Under the total 9 of 19 games last season. The Texans went Under 10 times. This won’t be a sequel to these teams’ playoff shootout. Take the Under.

3-0 IN LAST 3 KC O/U PICKS | +300

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:09 AM

Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 11:37 PM

OVER 54.5
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Even though Houston traded away DeAndre Hopkins, the Texans still have Deshaun Watson throwing to Will Fuller, Brandin Cooks, Randall Cobb and Kenny Stills. Watson typically plays well against the Chiefs, who have some issues in their secondary. I think Houston will hold up its end of the bargain, and with K.C.'s explosive offense, this game will go Over.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:10 AM

R.J. White

Super Bowl 55 Odds

Best value

New Orleans Saints (12-1):

This Saints team is built to win the title this season in what could be Drew Brees' last in football. With the future Hall-of-Famer back under center, the Saints feature the best offense in the NFC, one that was able to re-sign guard Andrus Peat to a long-term deal while also adding an excellent No. 2 receiver in Emmanuel Sanders. And if that wasn't enough, they reunited with safety Malcolm Jenkins to help overcome the loss of Vonn Bell and brought in multiple talented prospects via the draft to fortify their roster.

Even with Tom Brady joining the division, there's plenty to love about New Orleans, a team that finished second in the conference in Pythagorean wins (calculated by points scored and allowed) last year and came close to earning the No. 1 seed at 13-3. As a distant fourth in the championship odds, the Saints aren't getting nearly enough love.

Best longshots

Indianapolis Colts (25-1)

Despite the fact their franchise quarterback made the stunning decision to retire weeks before the 2019 season, the Colts shot out to a 5-2 start but ultimately petered out, finishing short of the playoffs due to injuries and several close losses. But the bones of this team are strong, with excellent talent on the offensive line and defensive front seven. Now coach Frank Reich has Philip Rivers to run his offense while the team also added a marquee player on the other side of the ball in defensive tackle DeForest Buckner.

Even last year, the Colts were neck and neck with Houston in terms of Pythagorean wins, and though Tennessee leads the way in the statistic, you have to wonder if Ryan Tannehill's elite-level play can be repeated in 2020. If not, the Colts could be the AFC South team playing for a Super Bowl bid, and with their status as division favorites at 7-5, these title odds present a great value.

Denver Broncos (50-1)

I'm not ready to fully buy into Drew Lock, but he did a solid job in his five-game rookie season, with the team going 4-1 while he posted decent numbers. For the Broncos to make waves in January, he's going to need to take a big step forward in his development, and at these odds, I'm willing to take the gamble that he can.

The Broncos unquestionably did a great job of retooling their roster during free agency. They've upgraded the offensive line by bringing in Graham Glasgow to be the reliable pivot Lock needs. They traded for key defenders like Jurrell Casey and A.J. Bouye to replace outgoing talent while making sure Justin Simmons stayed in Denver via the franchise tag. They even threw in a bargain of a deal for Melvin Gordon, because why not? And they also added plenty of talent in the draft, starting with a top-tier receiving prospect in Jerry Jeudy. This looks like a team ready to take a leap and win a wild card, and if they do, 50-1 odds are going to look pretty fantastic.

Arizona Cardinals (60-1)

I almost included the Cardinals in my first version of this post, as I laid out in the Broncos section of that version. Then they went out and pulled off a heist that should have been impossible, to the extent I might petition Hollywood to give Arizona general manager Steve Keim the lead role in the next Mission:Impossible movie in place of Tom Cruise. The Cardinals added one of the best receivers in football (DeAndre Hopkins) to their offense and unloaded a contract (David Johnson) that should have been unmovable, all for virtually a second-round pick. Remember: A second-round pick is what a certain team that shall remain nameless spent to offload its own horrendous contract (Brock Osweiler) once upon a time.

But that's not the team we're talking about here. Kyler Murray could explode in his second year with the weapons surrounding him, especially if the Cardinals are able to keep Kenyan Drake from leaving via the transition tag. The defense made some underrated additions in the form of Devon Kennard, De'Vondre Campbell and Jordan Phillips. And they landed an impact defender early in the draft in Isaiah Simmons before upgrading the offensive line with the third-round value selection of Josh Jones. This looks like a team capable of making a playoff run in the wide-open NFC.

Teams to avoid

San Francisco 49ers (7-1)

I don't think the 49ers were a fluke by any means, and the stats back up their Super Bowl LIV run as they finished first in the NFC in Pythagorean wins by more than one full win. But they had to win several close games late in the season, particularly against their NFC West rivals. Can they repeat in what figures to be the strongest division, top to bottom, in the NFL in 2020? With the fourth-toughest schedule in the league, taking the 49ers as a favorite to win the title doesn't make much sense from a value perspective.

Dallas Cowboys (12-1)

Keeping Amari Cooper was a boon for the Cowboys, but I'm worried about the talent that did escape via free agency. While there's nothing wrong with Dallas' offense, I'm not sure Gerald McCoy and Ha Ha Clinton-Dix are significant upgrades from the players they're replacing, and neither addresses the key loss of Byron Jones from the secondary. This still is a good team, but not one that deserves to have the third-lowest odds (6-1) to come out of the NFC.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (12-1)

Of course, the team that's now tied with the Cowboys is overvalued as well. The Buccaneers made the biggest splash - maybe ever - during free agency by signing Tom Brady, but the quarterback who took the field for New England last year isn't the same guy who dominated the league for two decades as he finished 2019 with career lows - or close to them - in completion percentage, yards per attempt and percentage of passes to go for a touchdown. With plenty of other issues on the roster to address and a tough championship contender ahead of them in the division, the Bucs should be behind Seattle, Philadelphia and Green Bay, at the very least, instead of their current position.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:14 AM

HITMAN | NFL Side - Thursday, Sep 10 2020 8:20PM
452 KAN -2.5(-130) BetOnline vs 451 HOU double-dime bet

Analysis: With all of our teaser plays this season, it is important to find books that charge reasonable prices for these teasers. There are plenty of locals who still charge -120 for a six point teaser (and even some who charge only -110!). In this instance of a 6.5 point teaser, you should be able to find -130 if you have a few outs, and I personally have a few shops who only charge -120. However, I will grade it at -130.

2* 6.5 POINT TEASER KC -2.5/DEN +9 -130

- Backing the defending super bowl champion in week 1 for their home opener has been a super profitable angle, and I love that we get to do that with a Chiefs team who has won and covered nine consecutive games going back to last season. The Chiefs are historically very hot starters under HC Andy Reid (they have won and covered 5 straight season openers), while they are set to return 20 of 22 starters from their super bowl squad. In a year where we should be valuing continuity early in the season, no team is more qualified in that department then the Chiefs.

Denver is a remarkable 33-4 SU since 1989 at home in weeks 1-2. The logic in this is simple: Teams are not in game shape early in the season, and not being used to the altitude in Denver fatigues them, especially later in the game. This year, that will be more true then ever, as the Titans obviously had no preseason to get their conditioning right for week one. By now, the market knows about this angle, but I power rate the game Titans -1, so I do not believe the market is fully accounting for it. The overreaction to the Von Miller injury is giving us value on Denver and giving us value on the optimal teaser strategy (teasing a small underdog up in a game with a low total). The fact that this game starts at 10:10 EST gives us another situational edge, as the east coast titans will be playing this game well past midnight EST.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 06:52 AM

baseball33
Cleveland Indians - Kansas City Royals
Cleveland Indians -1.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 08:30 AM

Big Al

KC Chiefs

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 08:30 AM

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 11:22 PM

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
The focus is on what the Chiefs did to the Texans in the playoffs last year, but going up 24-0 on the Chiefs in the first place has to be worth something, and beating the Chiefs in Arrowhead during the regular season should be worth even more. Underdogs of eight-plus are 7-0 ATS in Week 1 over the last five years and 20-8 ATS in Week 1 over the last 15 years. This Texans team still has plenty of talent after trading away DeAndre Hopkins, and Deshaun Watson is capable of keeping his team in any game or covering late if needed. Loved this pick at +10, still love it at +9.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 08:31 AM

Micah Roberts
FORMER VEGAS Bookmaker
TUE 9/8

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Chiefs finished last season on a nine-game win streak (8-0-1 ATS), one of which was a 51-31 defeat of the Texans (+10) in the playoffs after overcoming a 24-0 deficit.. At the time, the Chiefs were rolling and hungry and the stands were full. On Thursday night, they come in with no preseason games after winning the Super Bowl and only 22 percent of the stadium capacity allowed. The Texans beat the Chiefs, 31-24, at Arrowhead in October and they were getting only +4.5. DeShaun Watson leads the way to cover, maybe even a win.

11-3-1 IN LAST 15 HOU ATS PICKS | +777

14-10 IN LAST 24 KC ATS PICKS | +293

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 08:31 AM

Bill Marzano
VETERAN HANDICAPPER
TUE 9/8

KANSAS CITY -9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
Kansas City has a great chance to repeat as Super Bowl champs with Patrick Mahomes at QB. The Chiefs return nearly their entire roster and added a great RB in the draft. With no preseason games, you have to be looking at players and coaching staffs that have experience working together, and injuries. The Chiefs came back last year to destroy the Texans and now Houston is without DeAndre Hopkins. It could be another long night for the Texans and their defense. Houston is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 Thursday night games. Kansas City is 7-0-1 in its last eight games as home favorite. The Chiefs are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 September games

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-10-2020, 10:33 AM

Emory Hunt

NFL Season 2019-2020

Final Record

ATS

13-19 Sept
22-13 Oct
15-16 Nov
23-13 Dec

73-61 54% Regular Season

7-4 Playoffs

80-65 55%

Moneyline 1-5 Units -3.7

Totals 0-0

Net Units +8.0 at 5% juice

HOUSTON +9
HOUSTON @ KANSAS CITY | 9/10 | 8:20 PM EDT
9:44 AM
These teams split the two matchups last season, with the Chiefs winning the second one in thrilling fashion during the AFC Divisional Playoffs. Houston won the first matchup and had a 24-0 lead in the playoff game. The point is that both teams know each other well, and if you are the Texans, you know that you can move the ball on the Chiefs defense. Without a preseason game and with this being the first live action for both teams, expect a game that will be closer than the nine points Kansas City is giving.

19-10 IN LAST 29 KC ATS PICKS | +818

5-2 IN LAST 7 HOU ATS PICKS | +279

Service Plays Thursday 9/10/20

Service Plays Thursday 9/10/20

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment