Thursday 9/17/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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NBA
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NHL
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Canterbury Park - Race #1

#8 Dried Pepper	ML favorite has run well in two dirt starts and shows a strong turf debut, in a race where the majority of them are unproven on the green; too good for these.
#7 Stay My Fayvorite	Logical sort didn't run an inch on dirt then got to the turf and was a wakeup 3rd at a big number, and if the chalk stumbles, he'll be there; looms the main danger.
#10 Texas Rule	Firster shows a slew of encouraging works and cost 27k, so while there's not much turf pedigree, he won't need to freak to get a piece; exotics appeal underneath.
Race Summary	You certainly won't get rich on the 8 but that 5-2 ML seems like a lot of value, based on who he's facing, so make an aggressive win and place bet at 9-5 or better, though you can get some added value by singling him to kick off the early 10% takeout Pk5, as that's not a move the betting public likes to make to start a sequence, which will give you a leg up, while allowing for more coverage in the deeper races still to come.

Canterbury Park - Race #3

#1 Chance to Shine	Dangerous miss aired in her last turf start in a small stakes at TuP, drew perfectly for this, won in her only start over the course, and won't be favored; look out.
#5 Beach Flower	The gal to beat is best of the locals, just missed last time and has the best overall figures here, but her margin is slim, and she's lost six straight too; second-best.
#7 Tiz Little Bull	Tricky read beat the chalk by a nose last time, but that was a come from nowhere run, so she could regress, not to mention this post isn't ideal; tread lightly here.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML seems mighty fair on the 1, especially when you factor in her post, and big win the last time she was on turf, so play her aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use her number in the early 10% takeout Pk5, along with the early Pk4, as the 5 and 7 will take plenty of play too, which means a win by the pick would add some value to both sequences.

Canterbury Park - Race #9

#3 Slews Hymn	Lightly raced runner has aired in all three starts, over the track too, and while he's facing some salty invaders and will have to answer the class test too, he's done everything they've asked, still has upside, and can settle off what looks like a ton of early speed; onward and upward.
#6 The Tabulator	The chalk will get bet hard for Rivelli and his best wins this, but he also enters off a complete no-show with no apparent excuse at Mnr, so sure, he's going to be tough if right, but you're allowed to ask if he is after seeing what he did last time; plenty scary, but no lock either.
#2 King of the Court	The inside speed would be tough if he clears early but that seems unlikely in a race loaded with pace, though he did duel and win both times here in his last two, though with tougher, classier speed to his outside, doing it again tonight won't be easy; thinking he comes unglued late.
Race Summary	There's a lot to like about the 3, most notably his price, his stalking style, and his upside, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the late 10% takeout Pk5 as well, since the risk-reward will be there to see if he can handle the class rise, and it sure looks like he's getting all the best of it to find out.

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Laurel Park - Race #3

#3 Golden Ibis	Worth another look for a capable barn after the dull off-turn run off the long layoff, and the price should be playable.
#8 Good on Paper	Not much to argue with on paper for this one, but she might get a bit overbet off the underneath finishes recently.
#2 Pilot Episode	Big class relief off the Woodbine Oaks try, and the only career turf try was pretty sharp. Something like that would probably do the trick here.
Race Summary	Golden Ibis has done nothing of note in two starts, but she probably wasn't well meant on the main track last time out, and this barn is more than capable of landing this one at a price.

Laurel Park - Race #4

#1 Josef is Real	Steps up off the easy maiden claiming win, but he should be able to get a decent trip with a couple of speedier players drawn outside of him. Think he's in the mix here.
#6 Galerio	Didn't miss by much with similar last time out, and he draws well on the outside for a perfect pressing trip.
#4 Miami Mumbles	Rolled in the slop around two turns last time out, but the question is whether he'll be able to repeat that sort of try on dry land.
Race Summary	Josef is Real might get a bit overlooked on the step up from that maiden claiming score, but the trip might be there for him, and he seemed to appreciate the added ground last out.

Laurel Park - Race #8

#2 Tom Hagen	Hasn't been on the lawn in some time, but he owns some really solid back turf runs that stack up very nicely here at what should be a fair price.
#4 Mr. d'Angelo	Third start off the break after just missing with similar, but his late-running style can leave him at the mercy of pace and trip.
#8 Benny Havens	Longshot might be able to stick around for a small piece here at a nice number, and he has a bit of versatility in running style.
Race Summary	Tom Hagen gets back to the turf where he ran very well last fall, and the 4/1 ML offering would seem plenty fair on a guy who should get a big jump on the likely chalk, Mr. d'Angelo.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #1

#5 ONLYTHETUFFSURVIVE	Advanced on final turn, evenly but willingly in the lane.
#1 SEVENS HOPE A	Had win and a third from the rail against better in August.
#3 ROCKNROLL CHARM	Second start off claim, Allard’s choice on a triple call.
Race Summary	Onlythetuffsurvive tried to leave from post 7 at Pocono Downs, took back to save ground in sixth, gained inside in the third quarter but paced evenly in the stretch behind the 2-to-5 winner. He lures Tetrick off the claim, so play 5-1 and 5-3 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#5 SERENITY JOY	Right spot, right price after non-threatening stakes tries.
#10 RITSON	Good try in well-bet debut from post 9, broke in follow-up.
#1 CIAO BABY HALL	Had excuses in last pair, fits well off prior efforts, draws rail.
Race Summary	Serenity Joy lost by 8+ lengths to possible Mohawk Million favorite Donna Soprano and repeat winner Dicentra in stakes company. That translates to major contention in this field, so play 5-1 and 5-10 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #7

#2 BIG TEDDY	Proven sire stakes form, double-digit odds should cease.
#7 ADRENALINE RUSH	Front-end tactics failed in three-peat attempts, price goes up.
#4 PREMIER NACHO	Mild first-over bid from post 10 in follow-up to debut upset.
Race Summary	Big Teddy outran his odds and finished second to the 3-to-2 favorite in his last two sire stakes go-rounds, the latest after seven weeks away. He draws favorably, so play 2-4 and 2-7 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #3

#3 Miss My Macho	Moved to the lead in the stretch and then was caught late last time; can be a forward factor and has a good chance to finish the job for the Ritvo barn, which has had a good season.
#4 Interest	Ran on well vs. similar last time and seeks her first win since May; makes her second for Hurtak stable and can be a closing factor.
#9 Pert	Beat the same bunch last time in her first for Crichton, and she has not answered the challenge when it comes to winning two straight.
Race Summary	Miss My Macho woke up with a good effort last time and additional improvement can get her into the winner's circle.

Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#1 Katieleigh	Wired fields in two of her last time going long and shortens up to five furlongs. She normally gets the lead but will probably come from off the pace in this one.
#3 Fuddled	Was an easy winner last time out and wil be tough right back for the always-tough Joseph stable.
#6 Merseyside	Drops out of the Miss Gracie Stakes, in which she finished fifth; closed well and was up in time in a similar spot as this two races back. Another Joseph runner that can provide some punch in here.
Race Summary	Katieleigh turns back to a sprint after usually being on the front end going long; has the stamina to prevail here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #7

#5 Ms Big Spring	Has the speed to get to the front end and can turn back challenges; can get back to the winner's circle after losing two straight.
#8 Fast Venezuela	Was a non-threatening second last time is trying to develop an effective closing style; comes off the turf and can mix it up with these when it counts.
#2 Sugar Bolt	Has weakened in her last time races and drops in class; can battle from the beginning.
Race Summary	Ms Big Spring has been in some decent races and has been a force on the front end; can come up big vs. these.

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Celtics -2.5
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Celtics over 208.5
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Phillies -120
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Cardinals under 9
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Angels -150
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Giants under 9
7.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Indians -1.5
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NBA – Celtics -2.5
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	NBA – Celtics over 208.5
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Yankees -1.5
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Phillies -120
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Dodgers -170
13.	SCORE	MLB – Phillies -120
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Angels -150
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Astros over 9.5
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Celtics -2.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	NBA – Celtics over 208.5
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Indians -1.5
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Angels under 10
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Yankees over 9.5
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Phillies over 7.5
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Giants -140
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	NBA – Celtics -2.5
24.	Michigan Sports	NBA – Celtics over 208.5
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Pirates +140

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Hunter Price

Sep 17 '20, 10:00 AM in 43m
Soccer | Granada vs Teuta Durres
Play on: Teuta Durres +1152 at 5Dimes

1* Free Pick on Teuta Durres +1152

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THE LEGEND!
FREE NHL PLAYOFFS PICKS
Lightning vs Islanders
TIME: 8:10 PM EST
PICK: Islanders +140

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VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!
FREE MLB PICKS
Dodgers @ Rockies
TIME: 8:40 PM EST
PICKS: OVER 11.5

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GAMEDAY NETWORK

FREE MLB WINNER 9/17/20
Mets @ Phillies
Time: 7:05 PM EST
Free Pick: UNDER 7.5

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NBA public betting, line movement September 17
Patrick Everson

The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.

NBA betting odds are back on the board after a one-day respite, with Game 2 of the Eastern Conference finals on the Thursday playoff schedule. The red-hot Miami Heat aim to take a 2-0 lead in their best-of-7 series against the Boston Celtics.

DraftKings Sportsbook provided insights on NBA opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Thursday’s matchup.

NBA line movement

Miami is a scorching 9-1 SU and ATS in the NBA playoffs, including a 117-114 overtime victory against Boston in Game 1 on Tuesday. The Heat’s impressive playoff work aside, DraftKings opened Game 2 at Celtics -2 and moved to -2.5 early Wednesday. Tipoff is at 7 p.m. ET Thursday.

DraftKings opened the total at 208 and moved to 208.5 early Wednesday.

NBA public betting

Ticket count at DraftKings is running almost even, with a slight lean toward the Celtics at 52 percent. But the money is a little more impressed by the Heat’s Game 1 victory, with Miami getting 61 percent of point-spread cash as of Wednesday afternoon.

The public is also hitting the Over early, at 78 percent of tickets and 76 percent of money. Moneyline wagering has two-way action, with 54 percent of bets on Miami and 55 percent of money on Boston.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

701MIAMI -702 BOSTON
BOSTON is 52-29 ATS (20.1 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

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NBA
Dunkel

Thursday, September 17

Miami @ Boston

Game 701-702
September 17, 2020 @ 7:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
123.560
Boston
128.555
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Boston
by 5
205
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 2
209 1/2
Dunkel Pick:
Boston
(-2); Under

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NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 17

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MIAMI (53 - 30) vs. BOSTON (56 - 28) - 9/17/2020, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in road games after scoring 115 points or more this season.
BOSTON is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 158-116 ATS (+30.4 Units) in road games revenging a home loss vs opponent since 1996.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 29-14 ATS (+13.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 39-28 ATS (+8.2 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
BOSTON is 37-27 ATS (+7.3 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season this season.
MIAMI is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 7-4 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 6-5 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
5 of 10 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Thursday, September 17

Trend Report

Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Boston's last 10 games
Boston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing at home against Miami