Friday 9/18/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Churchill Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 3 - Maiden Claiming - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $31000 Class Rating: 70

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 119 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $50,000 HOURS PRIOR TO POST TIME FOR THE RACE.).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 MORE IS MORE 5/2
# 7 AMBITIOUSLY PLACED 8/1
# 5 WEST SIDE GIRL 8/5

MORE IS MORE is my choice. Has to be carefully examined here on the basis of the figs in the speed realm alone. Ran a strong last race. AMBITIOUSLY PLACED - She has garnered strong figures under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this group. I expect a quite good performance from this equine whose conditioner has one of the most respectable return on investment percentages with horses running at this distance and surface. WEST SIDE GIRL - Her 64 average has this filly with among the top speed figures for this event. Should be carefully examined - I like the figures from the last outing.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:04pm - Maiden Special - 5.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $14,100 Class Rating: 69

Rating:

#2 CHANGE OF CUSTODY (ML=10/1)
#5 OHIO TIME (ML=6/1)
#10 TRULY'S SPIRIT (ML=10/1)
#3 POWER OF MAGIC (ML=4/1)


CHANGE OF CUSTODY - I am keen on that latest race on Aug 27th at Belterra Park where she ended up third. Have to watch for this animal on the grass. Last race at Belterra Park, scored a big turf number. Have to think she can do it again in this field. OHIO TIME - While the finish was disappointing, this beautiful animal made a good stretch move last time around the track at Belterra Park. Should do better in this race. Three consecutive improved speed figs (49-51-66) make this thoroughbred a strong contender. TRULY'S SPIRIT - Have to like the way Sands has raced this filly back into shape off the layoff. Animal is well spotted in this sprint and I think she'll run well today. POWER OF MAGIC - The September 4th contest at Churchill Downs was at a class level of (87). Dropping down in the class scale considerably, so she should be in a good spot. Filly has shown some early speed. This shorter trip should be better for her. Lower weight carried of -5. In my opinion, a movement of five is important, so this filly falls into this category.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 SKY FACTOR (ML=3/1), #7 CRUZIN COMO (ML=5/1), #8 COUNTRY MOON (ML=8/1),

SKY FACTOR - Oddsmaker's morning line of 3/1 make this mount a pass by my standards. CRUZIN COMO - One should normally not wager on a horse in the next start after finishing off the board following a very long layoff. This filly hasn't been showing me anything in the last couple of efforts. COUNTRY MOON - There's early zip, zip, and more early speed in this event. Doesn't look too good for this equine.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - OHIO TIME - Despite finishing fourth last out, wasn't too far from the victor. Fits with this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #2 CHANGE OF CUSTODY to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [2,5,10]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 1 - Claiming - 4.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $7000 Class Rating: 67

FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE JULY 18 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $2,500

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 2 BADGER 2/1
# 3 MALIBU MAGIC 5/1
# 6 LOST THE MINISTER 5/2

BADGER has a formidable shot to take this race. His chances to score are much better this time around facing this easier field of horses. Is worth serious consideration and may be a wager - strong speed figures (70 average) at today's distance and surface lately. Shows sound speed figures on average overall when matched with the rest of this group of horses. MALIBU MAGIC - Strong average speed figs in dirt sprint races make this animal a solid choice. LOST THE MINISTER - Always good to invest in a trainer with this kind of competitive win percentage - 21 percent - at this distance & surface. Had one of the strongest Equibase Speed Figures of this group in his last race.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Laurel Park

PURCHASE

09/18/20, LRL, Race 9, 4.58 ET
09/18/20,LRL,9,6F [Turf] 1:07:01 CLAIMING. Purse $22,000. (PLUS UP TO 30% MBF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $16,000, if for $14,000, allowed 2 lbs. (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race on the Turf course, it will be run on the main track at Six Furlongs) (Rail at 87 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	To the Front	4-1	Perez X	Farrior Anthony	TL	108	35.19	1.64/$1
099.2970	9	Devotion in Motion	6-1	Toledo J	McMahon Hugh I.		108	35.19	1.64/$1
097.7845	2	Kickstarter(b+)	9/2	Carrasco V R	Smith Hamilton A.	W	108	35.19	1.64/$1
097.4006	5	Tastes Like Plaid	5-1	Corujo L	McMullen Marilyn G.	FEC	108	35.19	1.64/$1
097.2705	8	Shelly Island	7/2	Ruiz J	Salzman. Jr. John E.	S	108	35.19	1.64/$1
096.3718	7	Don Jupp	6-1	McCarthy T	Abbott. III Francis	J	108	35.19	1.64/$1
096.2829	6	Confusion Baby Boy	6-1	Rosado J	Trujillo Elvis		108	35.19	1.64/$1
095.8019	4	Cowboy Gandhi	30-1	Cruz A	Picon. Jr. Juan		108	35.19	1.64/$1
095.5233	1	Mister Frank's Way	8-1	Hamilton W	Bailes W. Robert		108	35.19	1.64/$1
094.7399	3	Neo	20-1	Marquez C	Bedard Alan		108	35.19	1.64/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 29.03, ROI 1.38/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	To the Front	4-1	Perez X	Farrior Anthony	L	187	30.48	1.06/$1
099.9139	9	Devotion in Motion	6-1	Toledo J	McMahon Hugh I.	F	93	27.96	1.05/$1
097.9905	2	Kickstarter(b+)	9/2	Carrasco V R	Smith Hamilton A.	EW	821	24.24	0.82/$1
097.1328	8	Shelly Island	7/2	Ruiz J	Salzman. Jr. John E.	T	821	24.24	0.82/$1
096.5516	6	Confusion Baby Boy	6-1	Rosado J	Trujillo Elvis	S	187	30.48	1.06/$1
095.8624	5	Tastes Like Plaid	5-1	Corujo L	McMullen Marilyn G.	C	187	30.48	1.06/$1
095.5454	7	Don Jupp	6-1	McCarthy T	Abbott. III Francis	J	93	27.96	1.05/$1
094.7124	4	Cowboy Gandhi	30-1	Cruz A	Picon. Jr. Juan		187	30.48	1.06/$1
093.8575	1	Mister Frank's Way	8-1	Hamilton W	Bailes W. Robert		33	36.36	1.59/$1
093.4902	3	Neo	20-1	Marquez C	Bedard Alan		93	27.96	1.05/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 33.33, ROI 0.91/$1

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Penn National - Race #7 - Post: 8:36pm - Claiming - 8.3 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 79

Rating:

#4 MESSY BAKER (ML=6/1)
#6 HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS (ML=9/5)
#3 RICK'S SURPRISE (ML=3/1)


MESSY BAKER - You'll be making money left and right by turning your gambling cash onto this rider/conditioner combination. Looks like the lone speed of the race. Should be tough on the front-end. Ran in the last race against tougher competition at Penn National. The move to a lower class level should suit him well. HUNTIN'THEHOLIDAYS - Last race September 2nd was pretty strong for a $4,000 Claiming race so this gelding's race wasn't all that bad. A thoroughbred coming back this soon after a solid contest is a good signal. It looks like Conner had to come to know this gelding on September 2nd when riding him for the first time. Back on again today. Ranked number 1 in earnings per start. Another indication that this equine outclasses this field. This gelding registered a good fig of 79 in his last race. That speed fig should be high enough to score today. RICK'S SURPRISE - Looking at this gelding's running lines, I see he's almost always in the top three. Taking a trip down the ladder based on class; has the power to make his presence felt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 BUSTIN THE BANK (ML=5/2), #5 WARLEGGAN (ML=6/1),

BUSTIN THE BANK - The speed ratings continue to sink, 90/80/70. Not a positive signal. WARLEGGAN - This horse doesn't have a champion's make-up. Time-and-again finishes in the place and show hole. Pace makes the race and the lack of early speed means this rallier will have to rally without any help.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 MESSY BAKER on the win end if we get at least 3/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [3,4,6] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Churchill Downs

09/18/20, CD, Race 5, 2.45 ET
09/18/20,CD,5,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:39:04 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $75,000 (includes up to $20,600 KTDF - Kentucky TB Devt Fund). FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. Three Year Olds, 120 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. (Preference To Horses That Have Not Started For $50,000 Or Less In Last 3 Starts). (If deemed inadvisable by management to run this race over the turf course, it will berun on the main track at One and One Sixteenth mile.).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Adjudicator	3-1	Gaffalione T	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	SFEL	14	64.29	1.69/$1
098.7303	8	Lake Nimrod	2-1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.	W	4	75.00	3.00/$1
096.6278	3	Ten Flat	5/2	Bridgmohan S	Cox Brad H.	J	26	38.46	1.12/$1
096.1405	6	Nineeleventurbo	3-1	Leparoux J R	Maker Michael J.		26	38.46	1.12/$1
096.0356	4	Highestdistinction	7/2	Beschizza A	Proctor Thomas F.		26	38.46	1.12/$1
095.8501	1	Make'n Tracks	10-1	Talamo J	Stewart Dallas		4	75.00	3.00/$1
095.1763	5	Vedder	10-1	Geroux F	Kenneally Eddie		8	75.00	2.21/$1
094.7244	2	Graves Mill Road	10-1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.		29	37.93	1.09/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 23.53, ROI 0.78/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	Adjudicator	3-1	Gaffalione T	Joseph. Jr. Saffie A.	SFEL	154	32.47	1.16/$1
099.0733	8	Lake Nimrod	2-1	Geroux F	Cox Brad H.		56	33.93	1.42/$1
098.0461	3	Ten Flat	5/2	Bridgmohan S	Cox Brad H.	J	154	32.47	1.16/$1
096.9591	6	Nineeleventurbo	3-1	Leparoux J R	Maker Michael J.		97	37.11	1.32/$1
096.6353	5	Vedder	10-1	Geroux F	Kenneally Eddie		172	30.81	1.10/$1
096.4638	1	Make'n Tracks	10-1	Talamo J	Stewart Dallas	W	97	37.11	1.32/$1
096.4472	4	Highestdistinction	7/2	Beschizza A	Proctor Thomas F.		154	32.47	1.16/$1
095.1768	2	Graves Mill Road	10-1	Lanerie C J	Pessin Neil L.		172	30.81	1.10/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 31.25, ROI 0.95/$1

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Sports Action 365

FREE MLB WINNER 9/18/20:
PLAY Twins @ Cubs OVER 7, GAME TIME 8:15 PM EST

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733DENVER -734 LA LAKERS
LA LAKERS are 39-23 ATS (13.7 Units) in road games versus poor pressure defensive teams - forcing <=14 turnovers/game in the last 3 seasons.

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NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 18

Denver @ LA Lakers

Game 733-734
September 18, 2020 @ 9:00 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Denver
118.260
LA Lakers
128.718
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Lakers
by 10 1/2
220
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Lakers
by 6 1/2
212
Dunkel Pick:
LA Lakers
(-6 1/2); Over

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NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 18

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DENVER (54 - 33) vs. LA LAKERS (60 - 21) - 9/18/2020, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) in road games after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 6-5 against the spread versus LA LAKERS over the last 3 seasons
LA LAKERS is 6-5 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
6 of 11 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA

Friday, September 18

Trend Report

Denver @ LA Lakers
Denver
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games
Denver is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
LA Lakers
LA Lakers is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
LA Lakers is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

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Game 1 Odds: Nuggets vs. Lakers
Michael Crosson

The NBA Western Conference Finals will tip off on Friday with the No. 3 Denver Nuggets meeting the No. 1 Los Angeles Lakers in Game 1 of their best-of-seven series.

The Rockets appeared to have something special saved up for the Lakers following Houston’s 112-97 win in Game 1 of the Western Conference semifinals against LAL, but that was short lived as LeBron James rallied his guys to four straight victories, securing the first Western Conference Finals berth of 2020.

Denver’s route to the Western Conference Finals was a little more bumpy than the top-seeded Lakers’ path, as The Nuggets have been forced to play six elimination games inside the bubble already and have came away with six gutsy victories in those contests.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Western Conference Finals Game 1
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sept. 18, 2020
Time: 9:00 p.m. ET
TV: TNT

Jamal Murray and the Denver Nuggets have opened as healthy underdogs to the L.A. Lakers in Game 1. (AP)

Western Conference Finals Schedule

All games to be played on one day of rest

Game 1 - Friday, Sept. 18
Game 2 - Sunday, Sept. 20
Game 3 - Tuesday, Sept. 22
Game 4 - Thursday, Sept. 24
Game 5 - Saturday, Sept. 26
Game 6 - Monday, Sept. 28
Game 7 - Wednesday, Sept. 30

Betting Odds - Nuggets vs. Lakers

After up catching on a much needed five days of rest, the Lakers head into their first matchup with Denver as seven-point, despite being 0-2 SU in series openers inside the bubble.

The oddsmakers are not messing around with the ‘over-under’ in this series after watching 20 out of 28 post-season games fall ‘under’ the total inside the bubble so far – setting the line for Friday’s contest at a relatively low bar of OU 212.

The Nuggets are currently listed as ‘+400 underdogs’ to advance to the NBA Finals, but if you are looking to place a wager on Denver in this matchup, you might be better off waiting until the Lakers take a 3-1 lead because that is when Jamal Murray and company seem to do their best work.

Spread: Los Angeles -7
Money-Line: Los Angeles -280 Denver +240
Total: 212
Updated Series Price: Los Angeles -500, Denver +400

Nuggets vs. Clippers Head-to-Head

2019-20 Regular Season

Aug. 10, 2020: Los Angeles 124 vs. Denver 121, Lakers -5, Over 223.5
Feb. 12, 2020: Los Angeles 120 at Denver 115, Lakers -3, Over 220.5
Dec. 22, 2019: Denver 128 at Los Angeles 104, Nuggets +2.5, Over 208.5
Dec. 3, 2019: Los Angeles 104 at Denver 96, Lakers +2.5, Under 208

Los Angeles held a 3-1 straight up advantage against Denver so far this seasonr, but the Nuggets have covered a hypothetical seven-point spread in three of those contests.

Prior to the NBA shutdown, the Nuggets did a great job defending the high-powered Lakers, holding them to just 106 points per game.

When these teams met up in the bubble though, the game quickly turned into a track meet as Kyle Kuzma went for 25 points on 68% shooting in the LAL’s 124-121 victory.

I believe the best way to get a feel for what kind of game we are going to see on Friday night, is by examining the overtime matchup in Denver between these teams back in February.

Nobody has had an answer for Murray defensively so far in these playoffs and the Lakers certainly did not have one for him back in the regular season when he went for 32 points on 13 for 25 shooting from the field – but it still was not enough to take down LAL, as LeBron teamed up with Anthony Davis and bullied their way to a combined 65 points to seal the victory.

Jokic was good in the contest too, tallying 22 points, 11 rebounds, and 6 assists to complement Murray’s electric outing, but again, it was not nearly enough to get them over the hump against the Lakers’ star-packed lineup.

Aside from Denver’s 128-104 victory back around Christmas-time, these teams have played each other pretty close and I have a feeling Game 1 of this series is going to end up in a similar fashion.

Denver Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-11 SU, 13-10 ATS, 13-8-1 O/U
Playoffs: 8-6 SU, 10-4 ATS, 5-8-1 O/U

The Nuggets are riding high following their Game 7 victory over the Clippers on Tuesday night, thanks to another insane 40-point outing from Murray (57% FG) to close out the second seed in the West.

It appeared most fans just assumed the Clippers would come out victorious in the series SOMEHOW, but Denver ended up making a mockery of Doc Rivers’ team by the end of the contest – highlighted by the Joker tossing a backwards pass over his head to a cutting Murray, already boasting a 15-point lead in the closing minutes of the fourth quarter.

Jokic and Murray combined for 56 points, 26 rebounds, and 18 assists on 51.3% shooting for the Nuggets in Game 7, and they will get a crack at a LAL team that really struggles to defend the perimeter at times.

If Mike Malone is going to continuously get that type of production from his young stars, there is no doubt the Nuggets could make LeBron and his crew sweat out a few extra games in this series, especially with the shooting cold-spells LA has been experiencing at times inside the bubble..

Los Angeles Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 11-7 SU, 8-10 ATS, 7-11 O/U
Playoffs: 8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS, 3-7 O/U

This matchup is really interesting to me because throughout the course of this year the Lakers have been the kings of “being caught off guard” by teams, and the Nuggets appeared to just lull the Clippers to sleep and completely catch them off guard in their previous series after falling in an 0-2 hole against the other team hailing from Los Angeles.

I am a little worried about something similar happening to Frank Vogel’s team in this series. The hype all year surrounded the two teams from Los Angeles potentially squaring off in the Western Conference Finals against each other, and now that the Clippers have been upset by Denver, it seems a lot of the buzz surrounding this series has faded.

The Lakers will win this series and likely this year’s NBA Finals, but do not be surprised if the Nuggets come out of the gates playing with an unmatchable amount of energy in Game 1 and put the pressure on LAL early.

Key Injuries

Denver

SF Vlatko Cancar: Foot - Out
SF Will Barton: Knee - Out

Los Angeles

SG Dion Waiters: Groin - Game Time Decision

Dion Waiters would probably hate me for saying this – but nothing significant on the injury report heading into the first game of this series.

It looks like there is a chance Denver could get Vlatko Cancar back before the end of this series, but other than that, minute rotations should look pretty similar to how they have looked in previous series for these teams.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement September 18
Patrick Everson

Matt Olson and Marcus Semien hope more elbow bumps are in order for the A's on Friday night against the Giants. Host Oakland leads the AL West, while San Francisco is 15-8 in its last 23 games.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a stacked Friday schedule of 18 games, including three doubleheaders. Among the noteworthy matchups is the last one on the docket, a Bay Area battle between the San Francisco Giants and Oakland Athletics.

FanDuel Sportsbook provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

The Giants are on a solid monthlong run, going 15-8 in their last 23 games, including wins in Seattle the last two nights after suffering a three-game sweep at San Diego. Meanwhile, the A’s are 3-4 in their last seven outings, but still lead the AL West by six games. Most books held off on posting this game until Friday morning, so check back. First pitch is at 9:40 p.m. ET.

In another interleague matchup, the NL Central-leading Chicago Cubs host the AL Central’s Minnesota Twins, with both teams looking to shore up their postseason credentials. FanDuel opened at Cubs -136/Twins +118, and there was no line movement through late Thursday night for this 8:15 p.m. ET contest.

The New York Yankees have fully rebounded from a 5-15 nosedive, winning their last eight games, and they’ll go for No. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET Friday night against the host Boston Red Sox. New York opened -174 to Boston’s +150, and the line stretched to -186/+158 by late Thursday night at FanDuel.

MLB public betting

The Consensus showed two-way play through Thursday night on Twins-Cubs, though with a lean toward Chicago, which was getting 57 percent of picks. And with the Red Sox among MLB’s worst teams, it’s no surprise that the Yankees were attracting 75 percent of early Consensus picks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

951TORONTO -952 PHILADELPHIA
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 SU (-11.1 Units) in home games vs. an AL team with an on base percentage .330 or worse over the last 2 seasons.

953TAMPA BAY -954 BALTIMORE
BALTIMORE is 17-5 SU (11.8 Units) vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game in the current season.

955ST LOUIS -956 PITTSBURGH
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 SU (8.6 Units) with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) in the current season.

957CHI WHITE SOX -958 CINCINNATI
CHI WHITE SOX is 26-9 SU (20.3 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

959ATLANTA -960 NY METS
NY METS are 18-10 SU (13.8 Units) in home games vs. NL teams scoring 5 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

961CLEVELAND -962 DETROIT
CLEVELAND is 79-54 SU (21.8 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

963WASHINGTON -964 MIAMI
WASHINGTON is 4-16 SU (-17.1 Units) vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse in the current season.

965NY YANKEES -966 BOSTON
BOSTON is 0-7 SU (-9.3 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

967KANSAS CITY -968 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 11-23 SU (-13.2 Units) vs. good defensive catchers - allowing 0.5 or less SB's/game in the current season.

969ARIZONA -970 HOUSTON
ARIZONA is 52-33 SU (17.7 Units) vs. a starting pitcher with good control (less than 1.75 BB's/start) over the last 2 seasons.

971LA DODGERS -972 COLORADO
COLORADO is 7-25 SU (-20.5 Units) in home games after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games in the last 3 seasons.

973MINNESOTA -974 CHICAGO CUBS
MINNESOTA is 6-17 SU (-14.1 Units) in road games vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

975TEXAS -976 LA ANGELS
TEXAS are 7-16 SU (-16 Units) in road games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

977SAN FRANCISCO -978 OAKLAND
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-3 SU (8.7 Units) when the money line is +125 to -125 in the current season.

979SAN DIEGO -980 SEATTLE
SAN DIEGO is 12-20 SU (-16.6 Units) in road games vs. excellent fielding teams - averaging <=0.5 errors/game over the last 2 seasons.

981PITTSBURGH -982 ST LOUIS
PITTSBURGH is 11-2 SU (8.6 Units) with a team slugging percentage .400 or worse on the season (NL) in the current season.

983PHILADELPHIA -984 TORONTO
PHILADELPHIA is 19-27 SU (-18.6 Units) in road games vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 5.5 or less hits/start over the last 2 seasons.

985WASHINGTON -986 MIAMI
WASHINGTON is 4-16 SU (-17.1 Units) vs. a team with a bad bullpen whose ERA is 4.70 or worse in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, September 18

National League
St Louis @ Pittsburgh
Cardinals (22-24)
Martinez is 0-2, 10.32 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-3 Totals: over 2-1

Ponce DeLeon is 0-3, 6.33 in six starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 2-4
Allowed run in first inning: 3-6 Totals: 3-3

— St Louis lost seven of its last ten games overall.
— Cardinals are 7-7 in their last 14 road games.
— Under is 9-1-2 in Cardinals’ last 12 road games.

Pirates (15-34):
Williams is 0-4, 9.00 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-8 Team in first 5 innings: 1-8
Allowed run in first inning: 2-9 Totals: over 7-2

Kuhl is 0-1, 9.39 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-7 Totals: over 5-1-1

— Pirates are 6-15 in their last 21 games.
— Pittsburgh is 5-4 in its last nine home games.
— Under is 6-1-1 in their last eight home games.

Washington @ Miami
Nationals (18-29):
Fedde is 0-2, 6.67 in six starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-6 Totals: over 5-0-1

— Washington lost four of its last six games.
— Nationals are 3-9 in their last 12 road games.
— Under is 3-1 in their last four games.

Marlins (25-23):
Sanchez is 2-1, 1.00 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-2 Team in first 5 innings: 3-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-5 Totals: under 4-1

— Miami won nine of its last 15 games overall.
— Marlins won four of their last seven home games.
— Over is 10-5-1 in their last 16 games.

Atlanta @ New York
Braves (29-21):
Fried is 6-0, 1.97 in nine starts; he is 2-0, 1.69 in four road outings.
Teams’ record in his starts: 8-1 Team in first 5 innings: 6-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: 4-4-1

— Braves lost three of their last four games.
— Atlanta won eight of its last 11 road games.
— Over is 13-5-2 in their last 20 games.

Mets (23-27)
Matz is making his first start since August 15; he is probably on a 60-pitch limit here. He is 0-4, 9.00 in five starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-5 Team in first 5 innings: 1-4
Allowed run in first inning: 1-5 Totals: under 4-1

— Mets lost three of their last five games overall.
— New York is 4-7 in its last 11 road games.
— Over is 13-4-1 in their last 18 games.

Los Angeles @ Colorado
Dodgers (36-15)
Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Dodgers are 6-5 in their last 11 games overall.
— LA won nine of its last 12 road games.
— Over is 13-5-2 in their last 20 road games.

Rockies (22-27):
Castellani is 0-1, 7.94 in his last three starts; he is 0-3, 6.48 in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-7 Totals: under 4-3

— Rockies lost 11 of their last 16 games.
— Colorado lost 13 of its last 18 home games.
— Under is 4-0-1 in their last five games.

American League
Cleveland @ Detroit
Indians (27-23):
Plesac is 3-1, 2.42 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-6 Totals: under 4-2

— Cleveland lost eight of its last nine games.
— Indians are 3-7 in their last ten road games.
— Over is 6-3 in Cleveland’s last nine games.

Tigers (21-28):
Fulmer allowed nine runs in five IP in his last two opens.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-8 Totals: over 6-2

— Detroit lost 11 of its last 15 games.
— Tigers won seven of their last ten home games.
— Over is 10-6 in their last 16 home games.

Bronx @ Boston
Bronx (29-21):
Montgomery is 0-1, 5.40 in his last five starts; he is 1-0, 1.93 in two starts vs Boston this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-8 Totals: under 5-3

— Bronx won its last eight games- they scored 43 runs the last three games.
— New York lost five of its last six road games.
— Under is 7-5 in their last 12 games.

Red Sox (19-32):
Perez is 1-1, 6.10 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-7 Team in first 5 innings: 5-5
Allowed run in first inning: 3-10 Totals: over 3-1 last four

— Red Sox are 7-6 in their last 13 games.
— Boston is 2-6 in its last eight home games.
— Over is 7-4 in their last 11 games.

Tampa Bay @ Baltimore
Rays (33-18):
Glasnow is 3-0, 3.20 in his last four starts; he is 1-0, 3.18 in two starts vs Baltimore this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 7-2 Team in first 5 innings: 6-3
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: over 6-2-1

— Tampa Bay won five of its last seven games overall.
— Rays are 16-4 in their last 20 road games.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six road games

Orioles (22-29):
Cobb is 0-3, 7.78 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 2-6
Allowed run in first inning: 2-8 Totals: under 6-1-1

— Orioles lost eight of their last ten games.
— Baltimore is 1-3 in its last four home games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.

Texas @ Anaheim
Rangers (18-32):
Benjamin is making his first MLB start; he’s allowed 6 runs in 12.1 IP in five MLB relief stints.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Texas lost 23 of its last 31 games.
— Rangers lost eight of their last nine road games.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six road games.

Angels (21-30):
Barria is 0-0, 3.68 in three starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-1 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-3 Totals: under 2-1

— Angels won nine of their last 14 games.
— Halos won six of their last eight home games.
— Over is 7-1-1 in Angels’ last nine home games.

Interleague
Philadelphia @ Toronto
Phillies (24-25)
Eflin is 0-1, 6.60 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-2 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-8 Totals: over 3-0 last three

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Philly lost 10 of its last 15 games.
— Phillies are 3-7 in their last 10 road games.
— Over is 9-3 in their last 12 games.

Blue Jays (26-23):
Ray is 1-0, 5.00 in two starts (9 IP) for Toronto.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-0 Team in first 5 innings: 2-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-2 Totals: 1-1

Stripling allowed three runs in 4.2 IP (81 PT) in his first Toronto start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-1 Team in first 5 innings: 0-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Blue Jays are 3-6 in their last nine games overall.
— Jays are 6-2 in their last eight home games.
— Over is 5-1 in their last six games.

Chicago @ Cincinnati
White Sox (33-17):
Stiever allowed one run in 3.1 IP (73 PT) in his first ’20 start.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-0 Team in first 5 innings: 1-0
Allowed run in first inning: 1-1 Totals: under 1-0

— Chicago won 11 of its last 13 games overall.
— White Sox won five of their last six road games.
— Under is 9-1-1 in their last 11 games.

Reds (25-26)
Antone is 0-2, 3.86 in four starts (16.1 IP) this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-4 Totals: 2-2

— Cincinnati won six of its last seven games.
— Reds are 8-6 in their last 14 home games.
— Over is 7-5-1 in the Reds’ last 13 home games.

Arizona @ Houston
Diamondbacks (19-32):
Gallen is 0-2, 9.90 in his last two starts, after going 1-0, 1.80 in his first eight starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-6-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-10 Totals: under 6-3-1

— Arizona lost 21 of its last 27 games overall.
— Diamondbacks lost 12 of their last 15 road games.
— Under is 5-3-1 in their last nine road games.

Astros (25-25):
Greinke is 0-2, 7.36 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-6 Team in first 5 innings: 4-1-5
Allowed run in first inning: 4-10 Totals: under 5-3-2

— Astros are 10-14 in their last 24 games overall.
— Houston won 14 of its last 17 home games.
— Under is 4-1 in their last five home games.

Kansas City @ Milwaukee
Royals (21-29):
Duffy is 3-1, 4.28 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-9 Totals: under 6-2-1

— Royals won seven of their last eight games.
— KC is 6-5 in its last 11 road games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven road games.

Brewers (23-26):
Houser is 0-4, 9.12 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-5 Team in first 5 innings: 1-6-2
Allowed run in first inning: 2-9 Totals: over 5-0-1 last six

— Milwaukee won four of its last five games overall.
— Brewers won nine of their last 14 home games.
— Under is 5-2-1 in Milwaukee’s last eight games.

Minnesota @ Chicago
Twins (31-21)
Hill is 1-0, 3.37 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-4 Team in first 5 innings: 5-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: over 4-2

— Twins won 11 of their last 16 games.
— Minnesota lost nine of its last 11 road games.
— Under is 10-1-1 in their last 12 road games.

Cubs (30-20):
Hendricks is 2-0, 1.66 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-5 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-10 Totals: over 6-4

— Cubs won their last four games overall.
— Chicago is 5-1 in its last six home games.
— Under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 home games.

San Francisco @ Oakland
Giants (25-24):
Webb is 0-0, 6.28 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-5 last seven Team in first 5 innings: 5-3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 5-10 Totals: over 5-2 last seven

— Giants lost three of their last five games.
— SF lost its last four road games.
— Over is 7-5-1 in Giants’ last 13 games.

A’s (31-19):
Bassitt is 2-0, 0.69 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-3 Team in first 5 innings: 5-4
Allowed run in first inning: 4-9 Totals: under 7-2

— Oakland is 8-5 in its last 13 games.
— A’s won four of their last five home games.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six home games

Seattle @ San Diego
Mariners (22-28):
Kikuchi is 2-2, 5.40 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4
Allowed run in first inning: 3-7 Totals: over 4-3

— Seattle lost six of its last eight games overall.
— Mariners are 6-8 in their last 14 road games.
— Over is 9-1 in their last ten games.

Padres (32-19)
Paddack is 1-2, 5.32 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-5 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 4-10 Totals: over 8-2

— San Diego won 22 of its last 29 games, but lost last two.
— Padres are 14-4 in their last 18 home games.
— Under is 4-2-1 in their last sieven games.