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BOSTON -1.5
MIAMI @ BOSTON | 9/15 | 6:30 PM EDT
Boston's Brad Stevens is 8-1 in his last nine postseason series openers while Miami's Erik Spoelstra is 14-10 lifetime in such contests. These arguably are the two best coaches in basketball, and even if he loses Game 1, Spoelstra will have a number of adjustments ready for the rest of the series. But Boston has a history of punching its opponents in the mouth in series openers to take an early lead. The responses will dictate the remainder of the series, but the Celtics almost always have the advantage in a series opener.
DENVER +7.5
DENVER @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 9/15 | 9:00 PM EDT
The Clippers suffered yet another second-half collapse in Game 6 on their way to a 13-point loss. The Nuggets have played well with their backs up against the wall during both of their series against the Jazz and now the Clippers, so this line is a bit surprising. They should at least put up a good fight here in a Game 7, so I’ll take the points.
129-77-3 IN LAST 209 NBA ATS PICKS | +4430
6-3 IN LAST 9 DEN ATS PICKS | +270
HOUSTON -180
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 9/15 | 8:10 PM EDT
1:01 PM
The Astros are 16-8 at home this season while the Rangers are 4-17 on the road. Kyle Cody is starting for the Rangers and he has pitched well but he has yet to go past three innings this season. Jose Urquidy is making his third start since returning from the IL and he threw a quality start in his last outing. The Astros have struggled but look for them to turn it around at home.
20-12 IN LAST 32 TEX ML PICKS | +596
12-7 IN LAST 19 HOU ML PICKS | +576
PHILADELPHIA +120
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:59 PM
Jake Arrieta is 3-4 5.54 ERA but he has a 3.55 ERA in his last two starts and he was one out from two straight quality starts in his last outing. He faced the Mets once this season and allowed two runs in seven IP. Rick Porcello is 1-4 6.07 ERA this season and he has a 6.38 ERA in his last five starts. Take the value in the Phillies at home.
TORONTO +143
TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 9/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
12:56 PM
Taijuan Walker is 3-2 with a 2.95 ERA this season while Deivi Garcia is 1-1 with a 3.06 ERA this season. Garcia went seven innings and gave up two runs in his last game against the Blue Jays. However, the Blue Jays should benefit from seeing him now and there is no reason the Yankees should be favored this much. They have won five in a row but four of those games were against the Orioles while the series before they lost two of three to the Blue Jays.
7-2 IN LAST 9 TOR ML PICKS | +470
2-1 IN LAST 3 NYY ML PICKS | +60
OVER 9.5
BOSTON @ MIAMI | 9/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
12:56 PM
Sandy Alcantara has struggled since returning from the IL allowing 15 runs in 16 IP. Tanner Houck is the Red Sox number 10 overall prospect and he is making his Major League debut tonight. The Marlins have scored at least five runs in four of their last five games and the Red Sox have scored at least four runs in four of their last five games. Take the over.
14-6 IN LAST 20 MLB O/U PICKS | +735
CINCINNATI -135
PITTSBURGH @ CINCINNATI | 9/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
12:55 PM
The Reds are quietly getting hot at the right time, and they have won three straight games. The Pirates have lost six straight games, and they are 5-18 on the road this season. Michael Lorenzen is 1-1 with a 5.23 ERA this season and he is built up enough to pitch about four innings. Joe Musgrove is 0-4 with a 5.40 ERA this season and he has made two starts since returning from the IL. Take the value in the Reds at home.
UNDER 8.5
CLEVELAND @ CHI. CUBS | 9/15 | 8:15 PM EDT
10:29 AM
This total seems shockingly high as the wind isn't blowing out all that much at Wrigley. Indians starting pitcher Carlos Carrasco has hit his stride by allowing just two runs over his last 19 innings. The Under is 7-2-1 in the Cubs' past 10 vs. a righty. Chicago's Yu Darvish (7-2, 1.77) is an NL Cy Young candidate who hasn't allowed more than three earned in a start all year. The Under is 11-5-1 in the Tribe's past 17 vs. teams with a winning record. Bet the Under.
BOSTON -120
MIAMI @ BOSTON | 9/15 | 6:30 PM EDT
10:20 AM
This is the rust vs. rest argument for the Heat as they haven't played since finishing the Bucks last Tuesday. I tend to think that dampens the momentum this team had; the Lakers, for a comparison, lost Game 1 of their first two playoff series after having too much time off ahead of each. In addition, Boston has won and covered in all seven series openers the past three postseasons. The C's have many more weapons than Milwaukee did. Since the moneyline is nearly a pick'em, no point in bothering with the spread just in case it's only a one-point win.
OVER 9
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 9/15 | 8:10 PM EDT
10:16 AM
The Rangers are 8-0 OU in the first game of a series with rest when their opponent’s starter has a strikeout-per-walk ratio of 2.00 or worse on the season. Texas has gone over the total by an average of 5.70 runs in this spot. The Astros are 9-0 OU in series openers at home with rest when they are coming off a game as underdogs in which their bullpen allowed multiple runs and 6-0 OU recently as favorites following a contest in which George Springer hit a home run. We make the Over the play.
74-41-1 IN LAST 116 MLB PICKS | +655
MIAMI -153
BOSTON @ MIAMI | 9/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
10:05 AM
This season, the Red Sox have played nine games as underdogs of more than 130 against a team that has won at least three straight contests. They are 0-9 in those games, losing each by multiple runs while allowing an average of 8.11. Miami has been a reliable 14-0 as a 140-plus home favorite following a come-from-behind win in which its bullpen allowed fewer than two runs. We are on the Marlins.
74-41-1 IN LAST 116 MLB PICKS | +655
HOUSTON -190
TEXAS @ HOUSTON | 9/15 | 8:10 PM EDT
9:56 AM
The Rangers are 0-11 in the first game of a series with rest as underdogs after they had multiple multi-run innings. Houston is 9-0 as a favorite of more than 180 after a game in which Carlos Correa struck out at least twice and 13-0 as a favorite of more than 150 after a contest in which Josh Reddick fanned at least twice. We are on the Astros.
74-41-1 IN LAST 116 MLB PICKS | +655
4-0 IN LAST 4 TEX ML PICKS | +400
5-2 IN LAST 7 HOU ML PICKS | +244
TAMPA BAY -172
WASHINGTON @ TAMPA BAY | 9/15 | 6:40 PM EDT
9:52 AM
In their most recent meeting, the Nationals beat the Rays 5-3 as a home underdog. Tampa Bay is a vengeful 9-0 as a favorite in the first game of a series when seeking same-season revenge for a loss, winning by an average of 3.56 runs. Continuing with this theme, we find that the Nationals are 0-10 as road underdogs in series openers when they are coming off a game as home favorites and their opponent is seeking same-season revenge for a loss. Tampa Bay is the play.
SAN DIEGO +115
L.A. DODGERS @ SAN DIEGO | 9/15 | 9:10 PM EDT
2:18 PM
The Padres are on fire right now, having won eight straight and 21 of their last 26 overall. San Diego is 19-6 at Petco Park. Zach Davies is 7-2 with a 2.48 ERA and 3-2 in his career vs. the Dodgers. Los Angeles is just 1.5 games in front of the Padres. The Dodgers have dropped five of their last eight overall. Tony Gonsolin has been tough to hit, but the Padres are swinging some hot bats right now. The Padres have won 10 of their last 11 vs, the N.L. West.
4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +285
PHILADELPHIA +120
N.Y. METS @ PHILADELPHIA | 9/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
1:58 PM
The Phillies are 5-2 vs. the Mets this year and will be getting their third look at Rick Porcello. They have already beat him twice. Jake Arrieta faced Porcello on Sept. 4 and Philadelphia won, 5-3. Porcello is 1-4 on the season and the Mets are 2-7 in his nine starts. The Phillies will be glad to see a different team after playing the Marlins eight straight games and winning just twice. Philadelphia is 10-2 in its last 12 home games.
4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +285
TORONTO +143
TORONTO @ N.Y. YANKEES | 9/15 | 7:05 PM EDT
1:47 PM
These teams have nearly identical records, as the Blue Jays are 26-20 and the Yankees are 26-21. Toronto has won two of three meetings vs. New York this year and the Blue Jays are playing solid baseball. The Yankees have won five straight overall, four of those vs. the Orioles. They are trying to get healthy but are still missing their two biggest bats in Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton. The Blue Jays have won five of their last seven. The Yankees have dropped nine of their last 11 vs. teams with a winning record and are just 2-6 in their last eight series openers.
4-2 IN LAST 6 MLB ML PICKS | +285
TAMPA BAY -175
N.Y. ISLANDERS @ TAMPA BAY | 9/15 | 8:00 PM EDT
1:32 PM
The Lightning will look to put this series away and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals. Tampa Bay has dominated this conference finals series and New York overall, winning 15 of the last 19 meetings. The Lightning are getting great play in net from Andrei Vasilevskiy, who continues to give his team a chance to win every game. Tampa Bay is pretty much healthy at this time and would like nothing more than to rest up for the Finals.
24-14 IN LAST 38 NHL ML PICKS | +566
11-2 IN LAST 13 TB ML PICKS | +829
8-4 IN LAST 12 NYI ML PICKS | +313
DENVER +7.5
DENVER @ L.A. CLIPPERS | 9/15 | 9:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:22 PM
The Nuggets have again come back from a 3-1 deficit to force a Game 7 and they have to like their chances here. Denver has shown no lead is safe, as this team continues to demonstrate its resolve. Now the pressure is on the Clippers, who are 0-7 all-time in conference semifinals. The Nuggets will again need huge contributions from Nikolai Jokic and Jamal Murray. They must win the battle on the boards. Denver has challenged a lot of shots. This game is going to be close. I think the Nuggets have a great shot to stun the Clippers.
13-6 IN LAST 19 NBA PICKS | +575
4-2 IN LAST 6 LAC ATS PICKS | +180
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