Thursday 9/24/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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NHL
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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #3

#4 Kingmeister	Homebred got to play in an off the turfer last time and romped, and while the waters are a lot deeper here, he has upside, and a perfect outside attack post; call right back.
#2 Legit	Deserving chalk will be bet hard for TAP off the fast 2nd last time at the level, but he'll also be spotting open lengths to the pick early, which may cost him late; second-best.
#3 Backsideofthemoon	Veteran has been facing better and holding his own, and his best wins this, but he's also 0-for-14 locally, and getting back to his best after 44 starts isn't likely; underneath only.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 4 but they will bet the 2 hard, so just maybe that 5-2 ML holds, which would be plenty of value, so play him aggressively to win and place, while getting some added value by keying him in the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since several will be doing the same with the chalk, which means a win would knock plenty of tickets out of both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #5

#8 Eden Ridge	ML longshot exits a very fast 32k, where that distant 5th wasn't all that bad, and there's pace her to set him up, and any of his last four put him in the mix with these; bombs away.
#4 Mills	Veteran stalker is the obvious class and will like this drop from 25k, but he's also just 1-for-9 locally, so at underlaid odds, off a real dud too, he's tough to trust; trying to beat on top.
#9 Scarf It Down	Expected underlay didn't fire going two turns at the Spa, so maybe one will wake him back up, and Noda has the magic, and the Bel run in June would make him tough; plenty capable.
Race Summary	You need to have some imagination to come up with the 8, but he's really not that far-fetched on figures, as the rest of these aren't too far ahead, and he'll like the pace here too, so give him a look in all the slots, and to end the early Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he's not impossible, yet a win would completely blow both sequences up.

Belmont Park - Race #8

#5 The Last Zip	The chalk catches a group with absolutely no early speed, so he should be as loose as he wants, and his recent form is best too, which adds up to a tough ask for the rest; looks long gone.
#9 Southern Bridge	Class dropper didn't fire after a bad break on the dirt against better off the Sharp claim, but he has some decent turf form showing, and will be closer early as well; may spice up your exotics.
## Bird's Eye View	Logical contender has been running well without winning, and the losing streak is now at 17, and dates back to 7/18, so sure, he fits, but it's unlikely today is the day; underneath, as always.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and there's just none here to keep the 5 honest early, and when the best horse has a big flow edge too, you head to the windows, so make an aggressive win and place bet, while getting some added value by singling him in the late Pk5/Pk4, since he looks primed to lead these on a merry chase.

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Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Harrah's Philadelphia - Race #2

#8 HEAT WAVE HANOVER	Burned money in latest, moves outside, can’t be ignored.
#4 SYRINX MIX	Led, missed by a neck and a nose in September starts.
#3 PROTEAS	Rallied from posts 7 and 8 in last pair, can land minor share.
Race Summary	Heat Wave Hanover broke stride as the 3-to-5 favorite off a big, runner-up effort in the race prior. He starts outside but should have plenty of pace to run at. Play 8-3, 8-4 and 8-5 exactas.

Delaware County Fair - Race #16

#5 SANDBETWEENMYTOES	On fast track toward Little Brown Jug finals appearance.
#3 WARRAWEE VITAL	Arrives off back-to-back stakes wins at 7/8-mile Woodbine-Mohawk Park oval.
#2 CAPTAIN MIDNIGHT	Top money-earner in field got break from facing division leader, got back on winning track.
Race Summary	Sandbetweenmytoes widened his winning margin in three of his last four starts through back half miles in :54.1, :55.2 and :53.4, earning a play in the second division of the Little Brown Jug. Play 5-2 and 5-3 exactas.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#7 NEVERGONNAGIVEUP	Improved in most recent qualifier, worth a price shot.
#1 WILDCAT VICTORIA	Rallied into fast pace, out-kicked by deep closer for win.
#8 ALWAYS WATCHING	Changed tactics, led long way from same post.
Race Summary	Nevergonnagiveup awakened with a runner-up finish in her third qualifier and need not be much to win at first asking against a field that is a combined 0-for-31. Play 7-1 and 7-8 exactas.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #5

#8 Battle of Blenheim	Is a very capable front runner at this level and comes in off a third; his only dull starts came against stakes and upper claiming races that were just too much for him. Big threat to wire this group.
#5 Twenty Four Seven	Swept to the lead between calls and was caught late; on the board in four straight and Joseph barn still hitting at 24 percent.
#9 Pont Du Gard	Was up in time and was claimed by Sanchez last out; has been competitive much of the year and can be close throughout.
Race Summary	Battle of Blenheim is solid on the front end and can assume that position vs. these; classy enough to answer any late challenges.

Gulfstream Park - Race #8

#1 Hidden Dreams	Was shuffled back early last time and has enough speed to save her inside position; can dig in at this distance.
#8 Dancing Crane	Was up in time for a maiden score in her only start and can be a factor from the start.
#7 Royal Habibi	Crushed maiden-claimers in her only start and likely will be rolling late in the game.
Race Summary	Hidden Dreams had a lot to overcome last time and can get a clean trip here; showed decent late energy and a similar stretch run will put her in the winner's circle.

Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#4 Anima d'Or	Was claimed by Gutierrez last time when he ran a badly beaten fifth going long in the slop; ran two straight thirds going five furlongs on turf and is a serious late threat.
#5 King of Rock	Ran an even third last out and probably has the best closing move; capable of showing up late.
#6 Valid Exchange	On the board in his last four starts and is long overdue to get a maiden win; makes his 18th start but he wouldn't be a major shock here.
Race Summary	Anima d'Or did very little going longer on a sloppy main track and gets back to his best course and distance; has shown a decent late kick.

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Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	NBA – Lakers -6
2.	Gameday Network	NBA – Lakers under 214.5
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Nationals -110
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Cardinals +120
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Indians -120
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Cubs under 9
7.	Lou Panelli	NBA – Lakers -6
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	NBA – Lakers under 214.5
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Tigers +140
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Astros under 8
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Cubs -1.5
13.	SCORE	MLB – Red Sox over 9.5
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Nationals -110
15.	Tony Campone	NBA – Lakers -6
16.	Chicago Sports Group	NBA – Lakers under 214.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Dodgers -1.5
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Red Sox -145
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – White Sox +110
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Braves -160
21.	NY Players Club	NBA – Lakers -6
22.	Fred Callahan	NBA – Lakers under 214.5
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Cardinals +120
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Tigers over 9.5
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Dodgers -1.5

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NFL odds Week 3: Opening lines, sharp money & line movement
Patrick Everson

Lamar Jackson and the Ravens will face a stern Monday night test at home against the defending Super Bowl champion Chiefs. The SuperBook installed Baltimore as a 3-point favorite.

NFL Week 2 is almost in the books, NFL Week 3 odds are on the board and already getting some attention. Among the marquee matchups is a massive Monday nighter between the defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs and the Baltimore Ravens.

The SuperBook at Westgate's John Murray provided insights on NFL Week 3 opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting. Covers will update this report with NFL sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement throughout the week.

NFL Week 3 odds

These are the current NFL Week 3 odds, as of September 20.



Dolphins at Jaguars odds

Opening line
Jaguars -2, Over/Under TBA

Why the line moved
Jacksonville is 1-1 SU, but cashed in in its first two games, losing to Tennessee 33-30 Sunday but covering as a 7-point road underdog. Miami is out of the gate 0-2 SU and 1-1 ATS, getting a last-minute touchdown Sunday to cover as a 5.5-point home 'dog in a 31-28 loss to the Bills.

So John Murray and his oddsmaking team at The SuperBook made the Jags modest 2-point favorites at home for the Thursday night tilt, and there was apparently a little early Jacksonville interest, as the line went to Jags -2.5.

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Tech Trends - Week 3
Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Sept. 24

MIAMI at JACKSONVILLE (NFL Network, 8:20 p.m. ET)

After spread cover vs. Bills, Dolphins 10-4 vs. line last 14 since early 2019.
Jags now “over” 4 of last 5 as host after Indy opener and 2-0 “over” this season.

Tech edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

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301MIAMI -302 JACKSONVILLE
MIAMI is 12-27 ATS (-17.7 Units) in road games after being outgained by opp by 100 or more total yards last game since 1992.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 3

Thursday, September 24

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MIAMI (0 - 2) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 1) - 9/24/2020, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL

Week 3

Trend Report

Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville
Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games
Jacksonville
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville's last 7 games when playing Miami
Jacksonville is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 3

Thursday, September 24

Miami @ Jacksonville

Game 301-302
September 24, 2020 @ 8:20 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
125.635
Jacksonville
130.255
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Jacksonville
by 4 1/2
46
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Jacksonville
by 2 1/2
48
Dunkel Pick:
Jacksonville
(-2 1/2); Over

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NFL

Week 3

Dolphins (0-2) @ Jacksonville (1-1)
— Miami lost its first two games, by 10-3 points.
— Dolphins gave up 417 passing yards to Josh Allen last week.
— Miami is 9-16 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog.

— Jaguars scored 57 points in splitting their first two games; they’re scored 7 TD’s on 17 drives.
— J’ville has converted 15-24 3rd down plays this season.
— Last 4+ years, Jaguars are 6-9 ATS as a home favorite.

— Jaguars are 5-4 in this series, winning last two meetings, 23-20/17-7.
— Dolphins won three of last four visits to Jacksonville.

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College Football Tech Trends - Week 4
Bruce Marshall

Week 4 of the College Football season kicks off on Thursday, Sept. 24 and we've identified betting trends and angles for key matchups between FBS and FCS matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Thursday, Sept. 24

UAB at SOUTH ALABAMA (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)

Head coach Bill Clark 26-15-1 vs. line since UAB returned in 2017.
Though Blazers just 4-7 ATS last 11 as visitor.
USA off quickly with a couple of covers in first two this season, in fact on 8-2 ATS since mid 2019.

Tech Edge: USA, based on recent trends.

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417UAB -418 S ALABAMA
S ALABAMA is 13-31 ATS (-21.1 Units) after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers since 1992.

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NCAAF
Long Sheet

Thursday, September 24

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UAB (1 - 1) at S ALABAMA (1 - 1) - 9/24/2020, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UAB is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
UAB is 1-0 against the spread versus S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
UAB is 1-0 straight up against S ALABAMA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons