Friday 9/25/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Penn National

Penn National - Race 7	W-P-S / Daily Double / Exacta / $0.50 Trifecta / $0.10 Superfecta $0.50 Pick 3 (Races 7-8-9) / $1.00 Pick 5 (Races 7-11)
Optional Claiming $25,000 • 6 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 89 • Purse: $28,900 • Post: 8:36P
(PLUS UP TO 40% PABF) FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING, STARTER, OR PENNSYLVANIA BRED OR CLAIMING PRICE $25,000. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE SINCE AUGUST 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. A RACE SINCE JULY 25 ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $25,000 (RACES WHERE ENTERED FOR $25,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ALLOWANCES).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Trailer. CRYSTAL CLEAR is the Lone Trailer of the race. * KEY ANGLES * NO DEAL: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. FLATTERING RUBY: Horse r anks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race). BRANDYWINES SECRET: Horse ranks in the top thre e in TrackMaster Power Rating. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20. CRYSTAL CLEAR: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse's average winning distance is within half a furlong of today's distance (within 50 yards if a Quarter Horse race).
3	NO DEAL	2/1	9/2
5	FLATTERING RUBY	4/1	6/1
1	BRANDYWINES SECRET	8/1	7/1
6	CRYSTAL CLEAR	5/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	FLATTERING RUBY	5	4/1	Alternator/Front-runner	86	99	93.6	71.8	65.3
4	TARA'S TALENT	4	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	85	82	65.4	66.2	59.7
2	KELTOI	2	6/1	Stalker	88	79	68.5	73.3	64.3
1	BRANDYWINES SECRET	1	8/1	Alternator/Stalker	84	88	70.8	79.0	72.0
3	NO DEAL	3	2/1	Alternator/Stalker	88	91	64.4	81.0	78.5
6	CRYSTAL CLEAR	6	5/1	Trailer	90	80	26.8	74.0	65.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Belterra Park - Race #1 - Post: 12:35pm - Allowance - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $23,000 Class Rating: 77

Rating:

#3 HIPSTER (ML=3/1)


HIPSTER - Ramos comes to ride after getting to know the gelding in the last race. This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very favorable ROI, right at +31. Just view his most recent fig, 74. That one looks good in this group.

Vulnerable Contenders: #6 UPTOWN (ML=2/1), #5 BIG ON BIG (ML=7/2), #2 SWEET LEMON DROP (ML=4/1),

UPTOWN - September 2nd is the last time we've seen this colt around. Have to be a little bit leery. BIG ON BIG - I have some doubts when a vulnerable equine has wraps added in the last race. SWEET LEMON DROP - Improbable that the speed rating he registered on August 18th will hold up in this event.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Putting our cash on #3 HIPSTER to win. Have to have odds of at least 1/1 or better though
EXACTA WAGERS:	3 with [2,4]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [2,4] with [1,2,4,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	3 with [1,2,4,5] with [1,2,4,5] with [1,2,4,5] Total Cost: $24

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Charles Town

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Claiming - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $11800 Class Rating: 63

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE MARCH 25, 2020. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE MARCH 25 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000, IF FOR $4,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS. W V A RACES NOT CONSIDERED IN ELIGIBILITY).

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 ABSORB 5/2
# 2 EARNED THE SHOT 15/1
# 6 CASTLEINTHEMEADOW 4/1

ABSORB looks to be a strong contender. Has posted solid speed figures in dirt route races in the past. The speed fig of 59 from her latest affair looks quite good in here. Have to examine solely on class, with some of the top class numbers of this field. EARNED THE SHOT - Could beat this group given the 51 speed fig earned in her last outing. CASTLEINTHEMEADOW - Will probably compete well in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. Look for a much improved performance with the drop.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Century Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $19000 Class Rating: 63

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 FLY AWAY 2/1
# 2 BABS DELIGHT 5/2
# 6 CAPA BELLA 5/1

I've got to go with FLY AWAY. The equipment change of blinkers going off today will most likely make a difference. Walcott has very solid numbers that point to this filly to be a very strong contender. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved swiftly to the lead recently. BABS DELIGHT - Could provide positive gains based on competitive recent Equibase Speed Figures with an average of 58. Earnings per start at the distance/surface is a very good angle. This one ranks at the top in this lot. CAPA BELLA - This filly looks good in this competition since Robertson has a very strong winning percentage with horses going this distance. Could beat this group given the 61 Equibase Speed Fig recorded in her last outing.

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

09/25/20, BEL, Race 10, 5.46 ET
09/25/20,BEL,10,6F [Turf] 1:05:03 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $38,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Three Year Olds, 121 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Claiming Price $40,000 (1.5% Aftercare Assessment Due At Time Of Claim Otherwise Claim Will Be Void). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at Six Furlongs on the Main Track.) (Rail at 18 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	12	Dream Chasing	3-1	Franco M	Clement Christophe	T	348	33.91	1.25/$1
098.0931	1	Bonus Baby	5/2	Hernandez B	Englehart Jeremiah C.		348	33.91	1.25/$1
098.0214	15	Grape Therapy	8/5	Carmouche K	Levine Bruce N.	E	348	33.91	1.25/$1
097.6544	4	Lookin to Fly	12-1	Carmouche K	Nevin Michelle		348	33.91	1.25/$1
097.6297	9	Prairie Tales	5-1	Rosario J	Brown Bruce R.	SW	348	33.91	1.25/$1
097.3755	7	High School Crush	5-1	Ortiz J L	Sciacca Gary	JFC	348	33.91	1.25/$1
097.1399	14	Beautiful Karen	3-1	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	L	348	33.91	1.25/$1
095.6848	2	Orma	15-1	Cardenas L	Bond H. James		348	33.91	1.25/$1
095.4924	5	Menzamenz	15-1	Marquez C	Levine Bruce N.		348	33.91	1.25/$1
094.2950	3	Lady Teuflesberg	20-1	Davis D	Miceli Michael		348	33.91	1.25/$1
094.2159	10	Adorable Maya	12-1	Cancel E	Bush Thomas M.		348	33.91	1.25/$1
093.8251	11	Mia Bea Star	20-1	Martinez J R	Donk David G.		348	33.91	1.25/$1
093.6427	13	Here Comes Meg	30-1	Lezcano J	Klesaris Steve		348	33.91	1.25/$1
092.9419	8	Gotta B Bold(b+)	30-1	Luzzi M J	Handal Raymond		348	33.91	1.25/$1
091.6492	6	Princess Leiha	50-1	Harkie H K	Quiles John N.		348	33.91	1.25/$1

* Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 33.87, ROI 1.14/$1
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	7	High School Crush	5-1	Ortiz J L	Sciacca Gary	JFWC	384	33.85	1.08/$1
098.7110	12	Dream Chasing	3-1	Franco M	Clement Christophe	T	75	24.00	1.42/$1
096.4262	14	Beautiful Karen	3-1	Lezcano J	Rice Linda	L	75	24.00	1.42/$1
096.2424	5	Menzamenz	15-1	Marquez C	Levine Bruce N.		384	33.85	1.08/$1
096.0886	9	Prairie Tales	5-1	Rosario J	Brown Bruce R.		384	33.85	1.08/$1
094.4589	1	Bonus Baby	5/2	Hernandez B	Englehart Jeremiah C.	S	24	50.00	2.73/$1
094.3351	2	Orma	15-1	Cardenas L	Bond H. James		384	33.85	1.08/$1
094.1514	15	Grape Therapy	8/5	Carmouche K	Levine Bruce N.	E	364	32.69	1.07/$1
093.6595	4	Lookin to Fly	12-1	Carmouche K	Nevin Michelle		384	33.85	1.08/$1
092.0649	11	Mia Bea Star	20-1	Martinez J R	Donk David G.		75	24.00	1.42/$1
091.4483	3	Lady Teuflesberg	20-1	Davis D	Miceli Michael		73	49.32	1.48/$1
090.6317	10	Adorable Maya	12-1	Cancel E	Bush Thomas M.		75	24.00	1.42/$1
089.8372	13	Here Comes Meg	30-1	Lezcano J	Klesaris Steve		73	49.32	1.48/$1
088.8747	8	Gotta B Bold(b+)	30-1	Luzzi M J	Handal Raymond		384	33.85	1.08/$1
086.9466	6	Princess Leiha	50-1	Harkie H K	Quiles John N.		384	33.85	1.08/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 26.17, ROI 0.81/$1

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Pimlico - Race #7 - Post: 3:55pm - Allowance - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $42,000 Class Rating: 94

Rating:

#7 SEVEN ON THE ROCKS (ML=9/2)
#5 ABSOLVED (ML=9/2)
#4 KARAN'S NOTION (ML=7/2)


SEVEN ON THE ROCKS - It looks like the race should set up for a closer. This gelding's running style fits the bill nicely. This pony coming off a nice effort in the last thirty days is a strong challenger in my book. ABSOLVED - When Gonzalez gives Cruz a leg up on any horse, you sense that with their win percent you have at worst a fighting chance. This colt is in fine form. Ran second on September 12th. Trainer Gonzalez gave this colt a good stiff blow out. Last one was 2nd fastest of the day. Had a dominant closing move last time out, running the last quarter in less than 25 seconds. A similar race today, and it's straight to the winner's circle. Colt took a little vacation, but has been racing into shape. KARAN'S NOTION - Heil drops him down to this level. You don't need too much more handicapping info to think this horse should run well at this level. I like to bet on this handicapping theory, a pony coming back off a good contest within the last 30 days.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 MARKET ANALYSIS (ML=9/5), #3 THE CAIRO KID (ML=5/1),

MARKET ANALYSIS - Tough to play this questionable contender in today's event. Make him show you something in a short distance race before you wager on him in a race of 6 furlongs. Placed much too far in the rear on March 7th for me to bet on at the probable odds in today's sprint event. Never really did much at all last time out on March 7th. Hard to invest in in today's race. THE CAIRO KID - The move down the stretch run on September 12th indicated to me that this equine will have a tough go of it versus this group of stiffer competition. Finished first in his most recent effort with a most unsatisfactory rating. When I look at today's Equibase class figure, it would take an improved performance to score after that in this field.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#7 SEVEN ON THE ROCKS to win at post-time odds of 4/1 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [5,7]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,5,7] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	[4,5,7] with [4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,7] Total Cost: $36
SUPER HIGH 5 WAGERS:	[4,5,7] with [4,5,7] with [1,4,5,7] with [1,3,4,5,6,7] with [1,3,4,5,6,7] Total Cost: $72

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Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Gulfstream Park

09/25/20, GP, Race 6, 2.50 ET
09/25/20,GP,6,5 1/2F [Dirt] 1:02:02 MAIDEN CLAIMING. Purse $33,500 (includes up to $7,500 FBIF - Florida Bred Incentive Fund). FOR MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. Weight, 120 lbs. Claiming Price $25,000, if for $20,000, allowed 2 lbs. ($7,500 from FBIF pending availability of purse supplement funds).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Little Dude	7/2	Reyes L R	Engler Jeff	SFL	5	60.00	2.30/$1
099.1302	7	Dreaming Thousand	3-1	Trejos J	D'Angelo Jose Francisc	T	68	39.71	1.25/$1
098.1029	5	Current Hope	5-1	Torres C A	Torres Enrique	C	287	25.44	0.84/$1
097.9458	4	Go Ortego Go	12-1	Panici L	Deville Carl J.	E	82	30.49	1.04/$1
097.6045	8	Papa Honor	4-1	Burgos A	Minguet Ramon	W	115	35.65	1.21/$1
097.5499	2	Go Mike	6-1	Zayas E J	Sano Antonio	J	287	25.44	0.84/$1
096.8470	3	My Maxamillion	10-1	Vasquez M A	Pompay Teresa M.		82	30.49	1.04/$1
094.9448	6	Thirsty's Pride	8-1	Camacho S	Antonucci Jena M.		82	30.49	1.04/$1

* Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 23.28, ROI 0.82/$1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

715MIAMI -716 BOSTON
BOSTON is 53-31 ATS (18.9 Units) versus good teams - outscoring their opponents by 3+ points/game in the last 3 seasons.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Dunkel

Friday, September 25

Miami @ Boston

Game 715-716
September 25, 2020 @ 8:30 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Miami
126.398
Boston
125.717
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Miami
by 1
218
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Boston
by 3 1/2
213
Dunkel Pick:
Miami
(+3 1/2); Over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA
Long Sheet

Friday, September 25

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MIAMI (55 - 31) vs. BOSTON (57 - 30) - 9/25/2020, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON is 49-34 ATS (+11.6 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON is 20-11 ATS (+7.9 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
BOSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games off a upset loss as a favorite this season.
BOSTON is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
BOSTON is 40-30 ATS (+7.0 Units) versus poor defensive teams - allowing 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 38-29 ATS (+6.1 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game this season.
BOSTON is 31-19 ATS (+10.1 Units) in road games versus good offensive teams - scoring 106+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 46-38 ATS (+4.2 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in all playoff games this season.
MIAMI is 28-19 ATS (+7.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 9-5 against the spread versus BOSTON over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON is 7-7 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
7 of 12 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 5 Odds: Heat vs. Celtics
Michael Crosson

On the back of a of a 20-year old rookie named Tyler Herro, the Miami Heat have taken a commanding 3-1 series lead against the third-seeded Boston Celtics in the Eastern Conference Finals.

The club from South Florida is now just win away from being the first team to punch a ticket to the 2020 NBA Finals in the NBA Bubble from Orlando, Florida on Friday as they meet in Game 5.

Betting Resources

Matchup: Eastern Conference Finals Game 5
Venue: ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
Location: Orlando, Florida
Date: Friday, Sept. 25, 2020
Time: 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Heat rookie Tyler Herro scored 37 points in Game 3 as Miami opened up a 3-1 series lead over Boston. (AP)

Line Movements

The Celtics find themselves trailing the Heat by two games in this series, but Boston is still found on the majority of Vegas betting boards as a three and a half-point favorite to force a Game 6 in this year’s Eastern Conference Finals against Miami.

‘Under’ tickets have been golden in the NBA Playoffs thus far, but the same cannot be said when these teams two teams meet up, as three out of four games in this series have soared over the total. The ‘over-under’ for the fifth tilt in this series has gotten a slight bump up to OU 213.

Spread: Boston -3
Money-Line: Boston -155, Miami +135
Total: 213.5
Updated Series Price: Miami -400, Boston +325

Game 4 Recap

The Celtics choked away double-digit deficits in their first two losses of this series, but the loss by Brad Stevens’ team on Wednesday night was somehow even uglier.

Jayson Tatum was held scoreless during the first half of Game 4, putting his team in a difficult position to be successful in what has proven to be the most crucial contest for the Celtics thus far. He turned it on in the second half after it was already too late though, going for 28 points on 62.5% shooting in the final two stanzas.

On most days, Tatum’s second half explosion might have been just enough to send his team over the edge, but on this given Wednesday night, it was not nearly enough against Miami’s rookie off the bench from the University of Kentucky. Herro scored 37 points on 67% shooting and banged home 5 of 10 3-pointers against the Celtics in Game 4.

Miami has now cashed ‘underdog money line’ tickets in three out of four games in this series. They will look to do it one last time against the favorited Celtics on Friday night.

Game 4 Betting Results

It was a tale of two halves in Game 3 for total bettors and those playing the 'under' certainly weren't happy.

After the pair combined for just 94 points in the first 24 minutes, the offensive units came alive in the second-half and posted 59 and 68 points in the third and fourth quarter respectively.

Neither team shot from distance but the pair went a combined 41-of-48 from the charity stripe and those free points with no running clocks, 16 in the fourth quarter, are daggers for 'under' tickets.

Outcome: Heat 112 Celtics 109

Game: Heat Win, Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 212
First Quarter: Heat Win (24-23), Heat Cover (+1), Under 52.5
First-Half: Heat Win (50-44), Heat Cover (+2), Under 105
Second-Half: Celtics Win (65-62), Heat Cover (+3.5), Over 105.5

Heat Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 14-7 SU, 14-7 ATS, 10-10-1 O/U
Playoffs: 11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS, 6-7 O/U

Cover your eyes Heat fans if you have not seen Goran Dragic’s shooting numbers from last game because the 21 points he scored were not pretty. Dragic, who has been terrific for Miami in the playoffs thus far, seemed to be a little rusty coming off four days rest, going 8 for 21 from the field.

Jae Crowder also struggled in Game 4 from Miami, going 1 for 9 from the field and tallying just 3 points in the contest.

It all did not matter though because Herro had the game of his young life so far, going for 37 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists off the bench – the most points ever in a game by a Heat bench player in the post-season.

What Miami really had going for them on Wednesday night was its 2-3 defensive zone. The Celtics really wanted to emphasize a drive-and-kick scheme in Game 4, but the Heat defense did a phenomenal job of protecting the paint and closing out on shooters, giving Boston fits on offense for the whole contest.

Eric Spoelstra is not given enough credit for what he has done with his team. Look for the Heat to utilize that zone again on Friday night.

Celtics Betting Outlook

Inside the Stats

Bubble: 14-9 SU, 12-10-1 ATS, 8-13-1 O/U
Playoffs: 9-6 SU, 9-6 ATS, 4-10 O/U

This is tough because Boston has been favorites in every game so far in this series, and I have agreed with the oddsmakers on every occasion – just like I do here.

I really think the Celtics will win on Friday night and force a Game 6; maybe even a Game 7. Not if the Heat are going to continue to get explosive assistance from guys not named Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo though.

If you would have told me Butler would not be the best player on the floor for a single game of this series, I would have guessed there is no way the Heat are in contention to win this series – but here they are, rolling the third seed in the East.

The Celtics need to figure out a way to contain these Heat role players. Marcus Smart and Jaylen Brown have been great all year locking down the perimeter on defense. It all seems to have fallen apart here in this series though with Dragic and Herro exploding in their respective contests.

They figured out how to keep it under control in Game 3, and I think they will figure it out again on Friday night. Can they put together three consecutive wins though? Only time will tell. To start, they need to stop turning the ball over and drive into the paint more instead of settling for unassisted 3’s.

Key Injuries

Boston

SG Romeo Langford: Hip - Out

Miami

PF Gabe Vincent: Knee - Game Time Decision

PF Chris Silva: Pelvis - Game Time Decision

Romeo Langford is out for the season with a wrist injury after playing just a few minutes off the bench for the Celtics in this series.

Some may be asking, “Who is Langford?”

By trading down to acquire Tatum in the 2017 draft, Boston acquired Sacramento’s 2019 first round pick from Philadelphia. Miami and Sacramento both finished last season with 39-43 records, so essential

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NBA

Friday, September 25

Trend Report

Miami @ Boston
Miami
Miami is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Boston
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Boston's last 17 games
Boston is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Miami

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement September 25
Patrick Everson

Christian Yelich and the Brewers face a key Friday doubleheader in St. Louis against the Cardinals. Both teams can use wins, though Milwaukee is more desperate in its NL playoff quest.

MLB betting odds are up for a flooded Friday schedule that includes three doubleheaders, one of which could do a lot to clear up the NL playoff picture. The Milwaukee Brewers are two spots and one game out of a postseason spot, heading into a twin bill against the fifth-place St. Louis Cardinals, who could use wins, as well.

Caesars sportsbooks provided insights on MLB opening lines and early line movement, sharp money and public betting for Friday’s games.

MLB line movement

St. Louis helped itself with a 4-2 series-opening win over visiting Milwaukee on Thursday, putting more pressure on the Brewers in the process. But with a sweep of Friday’s doubleheader, the Brew Crew would be tied with the Redbirds by win percentage – St. Louis has played two fewer games – and playoff positions 5-8 in the NL would likely remain a tangled web.

With starters in this pivotal double-dip not set Thursday night, most sportsbooks did not post the line for the 5:15 p.m. ET first game nor 8:15 p.m. ET closer. Check back Friday morning.

The Chicago Cubs and Chicago White Sox are both locked into the postseason, though seeding could shift depending on how their three-game, regular-season-ending series goes. That starts with Friday’s 8:10 p.m. ET tilt, which Caesars books opened at Cubs -145/White Sox +135, and there was no line movement Thursday night.

The Los Angeles Dodgers are all set as the NL’s top seed, while the Los Angeles Angels still harbor extremely slim AL playoff hopes entering Friday’s 9:40 p.m. ET first pitch at Dodger Stadium. The Angels’ chances get slimmer still by having to face Clayton Kershaw (6-2, 2.15 ERA), and Caesars recognizes as much, with this game priced at Dodgers -230/Angels +200.

MLB public betting

The Consensus indicated two-way play on the Cubs-White Sox contest, with a tilt toward the host South Siders, as the Sox were landing 57 percent of picks through Thursday night. It’s not two-way in the Angels-Dodgers affair, with Kershaw and Co. attracting 71 percent of early Consensus picks.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

901NY METS -902 WASHINGTON
WASHINGTON is 11-21 SU (-16.2 Units) vs. a team with a poor bullpen whose ERA is 4.20 or worse in the current season.

903BALTIMORE -904 TORONTO
BALTIMORE is 45-61 SU (-22.1 Units) when the money line is +125 to -125 in the last 3 seasons.

905PHILADELPHIA -906 TAMPA BAY
PHILADELPHIA is 49-75 SU (-33.5 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive road games in the last 3 seasons.

907MIAMI -908 NY YANKEES
NY YANKEES are 16-2 SU (13.8 Units) in home games as a favorite of -150 or more in the current season.

909PITTSBURGH -910 CLEVELAND
CLEVELAND is 83-57 SU (22.6 Units) vs. poor baserunning teams - averaging 0.5 or less SB's/game over the last 2 seasons.

911BOSTON -912 ATLANTA
BOSTON is 0-7 SU (-9.3 Units) in road games vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

913HOUSTON -914 TEXAS
TEXAS are 14-23 SU (-16.1 Units) vs teams who strand 6.9 or less runners on base per game in the current season.

915DETROIT -916 KANSAS CITY
DETROIT is 10-19 SU (-12.9 Units) vs. excellent defensive catchers - allowing <=0.35 SB's/game in the current season.

917CHICAGO CUBS -918 CHI WHITE SOX
CHI WHITE SOX is 24-10 SU (16.1 Units) vs. a team with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities in the current season.

919CINCINNATI -920 MINNESOTA
MINNESOTA is 8-2 SU (5.8 Units) in home games as a favorite of -125 to -175 in the current season.

921MILWAUKEE -922 ST LOUIS
MILWAUKEE is 8-24 SU (-18.8 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse in the current season.

923SEATTLE -924 OAKLAND
SEATTLE is 21-11 SU (9.8 Units) vs. an AL team with a team batting average of .255 or worse in the current season.

925LA ANGELS -926 LA DODGERS
LA ANGELS are 35-24 SU (12.6 Units) vs. teams outscoring opp by 1 or more runs/game on the season over the last 2 seasons.

927COLORADO -928 ARIZONA
COLORADO is 10-25 SU (-19.4 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose gives up 1 or more HR's/start over the last 2 seasons.

929SAN DIEGO -930 SAN FRANCISCO
SAN FRANCISCO is 16-9 SU (10 Units) in home games vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game in the current season.

931ST LOUIS -932 MILWAUKEE
MILWAUKEE is 8-24 SU (-18.8 Units) vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse in the current season.

933COLORADO -934 ARIZONA
COLORADO is 32-55 SU (-32.9 Units) vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start over the last 2 seasons.

935SAN FRANCISCO -936 SAN DIEGO
SAN DIEGO is 8-2 SU (8.1 Units) in home games vs. NL teams allowing 4.5 or more runs/game on the season in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Friday, September 25

National League
Milwaukee @ St Louis
Brewers (27-29):
Lindblom is 1-0, 0.87 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-5-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-9 Totals: over 6-3

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Milwaukee won six of its last ten games overall.
— Brewers lost 10 of their last 13 road games.
— Under is 9-5-1 in Milwaukee’s last 15 games.

Cardinals (28-26)
Flaherty is 3-0, 2.05 in four home starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-4
Allowed run in first inning: 4-8 Totals: over 5-3

Ponce DeLeon is 0-0, 3.86 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-3 Team in first 5 innings: 2-5
Allowed run in first inning: 3-7 Totals: over 4-3

— St Louis won six of its last eight games.
— Cardinals are 2-3 in their last five home games.
— Over is 7-2 in Cardinals’ last nine home games.

New York @ Washington
Mets (26-31)
Porcello is 0-2, 4.50 in his last five starts; he is 1-1, 2.08 vs Washington this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-9 Team in first 5 innings: 3-6-2
Allowed run in first inning: 6-11 Totals: under 7-2 last nine

— Mets lost seven of their last 12 games overall.
— New York is 4-5 in its last nine road games.
— Over is 7-3-1 in their last 11 road games.

Nationals (23-34):
Scherzer is 1-3, 4.13 in his last four starts; he is 1-1, 2.57 against the Mets this season.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 6-3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 5-11 Totals: over 5-2 last seven

— Washington won four of its last six games.
— Nationals are 4-5 in their last nine home games.
— Over is 5-4 in their last nine games.

Colorado @ Arizona
Rockies (25-31):
Senzatela is 2-0, 1.17 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 7-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 4-11 Totals: under 4-1 last five

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Rockies lost 15 of their last 22 games.
— Colorado lost five of its last nine road games.
— Under is 6-2-3 in their last 11 games.

Diamondbacks (22-34):
Gallen is 1-2, 7.88 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-6-2
Allowed run in first inning: 3-11 Totals: under 6-4-1

Clarke is 0-0, 7.50 in four starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-3 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2-1
Allowed run in first inning: 4-4 Totals: 2-2

— Arizona lost 23 of its last 32 games overall.
— Diamondbacks won four of their last six home games.
— Over is 5-3 in their last eight home games.

San Diego @ San Francisco
Padres (34-22)
Lamet is 1-0, 0.87 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: won last six Team in first 5 innings: 5-4-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-11 Totals: over 5-1 last six

Paddack is 1-1, 3.55 in his last three starts; he is 0-0, 3.86 in two starts against the Giants this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 5-3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 4-11 Totals: over 8-3

— San Diego lost five of its last seven games.
— Padres won five of its last seven road games.
— Under is 5-2 in their last seven games.

Giants (28-28):
Anderson is 3-0, 3.95 in his last three outings.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-6-1
Allowed run in first inning: 3-7 Totals: over 8-2

Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Giants won three of their last five games.
— SF won nine of its last 11 home games.
— Over is 5-2-2 in Giants’ last nine home games.

American League
Baltimore @ Toronto
Orioles (24-33):
Lopez is 2-1, 3.50 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-4 Totals: over 3-1

— Orioles lost 12 of their last 16 games.
— Baltimore is 1-7 in its last eight road games.
— Under is 6-4 in their last ten games.

Blue Jays (30-27):
Walker has thrown 10 scoreless innings in his two Buffalo starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-1 Team in first 5 innings: 3-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-5 Totals: under 4-1

— Blue Jays are 7-10 in their last 17 games overall.
— Jays are 11-4 in their last 15 home games.
— Over is 10-4 in their last 14 games.

Detroit @ Kansas City
Tigers (22-33):
Turnbull is 1-1, 5.14 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4-3
Allowed run in first inning: 1-10 Totals: under 6-3-1

— Detroit lost 17 of its last 22 games.
— Tigers is 2-13 in their last 15 road games.
— Under is 4-3 in their last seven road games.

Royals (23-33):
Keller has allowed one run in 27 IP in four home starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-8 Totals: under 5-3

— Royals lost four of their last six games.
— KC is 5-1 in its last six home games.
— Under is 6-2 in their last eight games.

Houston @ Texas
Astros (29-28):
Urquidy is 1-1, 2.37 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-1-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-4 Totals: under 3-1

— Astros are 5-3 in their last eight games overall.
— Houston lost 14 of its last 18 road games.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten road games.

Rangers (19-38):
Cody is 1-1, 2.70 in four starts (13.1 IP)
Teams’ record in his starts: 2-2 Team in first 5 innings: 2-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-4 Totals: 2-2

— Texas lost 29 of its last 38 games.
— Rangers are 5-6 in their last 11 home games.
— Under is 6-3 in their last nine games.

Seattle @ Oakland
Mariners (25-31):
Kikuchi is 0-2, 8.10 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-5
Allowed run in first inning: 3-8 Totals: 4-4

— Seattle lost nine of its last 14 games overall.
— Mariners are 1-4 in their last five road games.
— Under is 5-1 in their last six games.

A’s (34-22):
Bassitt is 3-0, 0.45 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 7-3 Team in first 5 innings: 6-4
Allowed run in first inning: 4-10 Totals: under 8-2

— Oakland is 11-8 in its last 19 games.
— A’s are 7-2 in their last nine home games.
— Under is 7-2 in their last nine home games

Interleague
Philadelphia @ Tampa Bay
Phillies (28-29)
Velasquez is 1-1, 5.40 in six starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-5 Team in first 5 innings: 3-3
Allowed run in first inning: 1-6 Totals: under 4-2

— Philly lost four of its last four games.
— Phillies are 2-7 in their last nine road games.
— Over is 13-7 in their last 20 games.

Rays (37-20):
Morton is 1-1, 4.30 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-5
Allowed run in first inning: 3-8 Totals: under 5-1 last six

— Tampa Bay won nine of its last 13 games overall.
— Rays are 10-5 in their last 15 home games.
— Under is 8-2 in their last ten games

Miami @ Bronx
Marlins (29-28):
Alcantara allowed two runs in 12 IP in splitting his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-2 Team in first 5 innings: 1-2-3
Allowed run in first inning: 2-6 Totals: 3-3

— Miami lost four of its last five games overall.
— Marlins are 1-4 in their last five road games.
— Over is 15-9-1 in their last 25 games.

Bronx (32-25):
Happ is 1-1, 1.40 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-3 Team in first 5 innings: 4-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 1-8 Totals: under 5-1 last six

— Bronx lost four of its last five games.
— New York won its last seven home games.
— Over is 7-2 in their last nine games.

Boston @ Atlanta
Red Sox (22-35):
Bullpen game
Teams’ record in his starts: 0-0 Team in first 5 innings: 0-0
Allowed run in first inning: 0-0 Totals: 0-0

— Red Sox are 9-9 in their last 18 games.
— Boston is 3-1 in its last four road games.
— Over is 11-5 in their last 16 games.

Braves (34-23):
Wright is 2-0, 2.92 in his last two starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 3-4 Team in first 5 innings: 1-5-1
Allowed run in first inning: 0-7 Totals: under 5–2

— Braves won five of their last seven games.
— Atlanta is 5-5 in its last ten home games.
— Under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

Pittsburgh @ Cleveland
Pirates (18-39):
Keller is 1-1, 3.24 in four starts this year.
Teams’ record in his starts: 1-3 Team in first 5 innings: 2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 0-4 Totals: over 2-1-1

— Pirates are 3-0 in their last three games.
— Pittsburgh is 0-8 in its last eight road games.
— Under is 5-0 in their last five games.

Indians (33-24):
Carrasco is 1-1, 1.41 in his last five starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-6 Team in first 5 innings: 4-3-4
Allowed run in first inning: 2-11 Totals: over 6-2-3

— Cleveland won its last five games.
— Indians are 8-7 in their last 15 home games.
— Under is 8-4-1 in Cleveland’s last 13 home games.

Chicago @ Chicago
Cubs (32-25):
Darvish is 0-2, 4.74 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 8-3 Team in first 5 innings: 6-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-11 Totals: under 5-1 last six

— Cubs lost their last three games overall.
— Chicago is 6-5 in its last 11 road games.
— Under is 14-4 in their last 18 games.

White Sox (34-22):
Cease is 0-1, 4.26 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 7-2-2
Allowed run in first inning: 3-11 Totals: over 6-5

— Chicago lost its last five games overall.
— White Sox are 0-5 in their last five road games.
— Under is 13-4-1 in their last 18 games.

Cincinnati @ Minnesota
Reds (29-28)
Mahle is 1-1, 4.03 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 3-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-8 Totals: under 4-2 last six

— Cincinnati won nine of its last 11 games.
— Reds are 7-5 in their last 12 road games.
— Under is 6-2 in the Reds’ last eight games.

Twins (34-22)
Berrios is 3-0, 2.05 in his last four starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 6-5 Team in first 5 innings: 6-4-1
Allowed run in first inning: 2-11 Totals: under 5-1-2 last eight

— Twins won their last four games.
— Minnesota won 11 of its last 12 home games.
— Under is 6-2-1 in their last nine games.

Anaheim @ Los Angeles
Angels (25-31):
Heaney is 1-1, 5.30 in his last three starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 5-6 Team in first 5 innings: 4-4-3
Allowed run in first inning: 2-11 Totals: under 3-1

— Angels won 14 of their last 20 games.
— Halos won five of their last six road games.
— Under is 5-1 in Angels’ last six road games.

Dodgers (40-17)
Kershaw is 4-1, 2.35 in his last six starts.
Teams’ record in his starts: 4-4 Team in first 5 innings: 6-1-1
Allowed run in first inning: 1-8 Totals: 4-4

— Dodgers are 10-7 in their last 17 games overall.
— LA lost four of its last seven home games.
— Over is 4-2-2 in their last eight home games.