Sunday 9/27/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#1 King's Reckoning	I'm willing to take that big run at face value when trying the turf for the first time at 57/1, and his early speed should keep him in the mix from the start. Why not?
#7 Argentic	Has a right to be pretty tough here after a runner-up finish in a pretty quick Penn National race. Price may not be much.
#3 Judah	Forward player is another with a claim on this, and he's dangerous because he can also relax just a bit and press the pace if necessary.
Race Summary	King's Reckoning may still offer a fair price after a big run in his turf debut, and if he's able to repeat that, he's fast enough to win this.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#6 Head Dress	Finished second in the only career turf try, and that gives her the edge in a spot for non-winners of a race on the turf. She feels less exposed than most in here.
#2 Princess Tiznow	Turf tries haven't been much, but she brings pretty solid recent form with her to this and doesn't meet a tough crew today.
#1 Miss Lotus Flower	Owns a couple of decent back turf tries that might be good enough to land her an underneath share here at a big price.
Race Summary	Head Dress owns a decent turf try in the past and has some right to wake up on the surface switch in a spot where there isn't a ton of solid turf form to call on.

Mountaineer - Race #5

#4 Diamond General	Showed a bit of tracking pace before going flat late in the debut run, but he can probably stick around better with that race under his belt. I'd want the ML offering here as Thistledown to Mountaineer maiden shippers are only a 9% proposition.
#2 Squirrel	Showed a bit of pace in that last one at Presque Isle, and he might appreciate what figures to be a bit softer group this time around.
#3 Tony's Tapit	Took a nice step forward in that second career start, and something similar to that might be enough to land this pretty soft spot.
Race Summary	Diamond General can play with this group after what might be a useful debut effort, and if he offers the 5/1 ML price, he's a fair play here.

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Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park - Race #9

#9 Mo of the West	Lost last time when she moved up to stakes company but had won two straight; can get a stalking trip and can get first run to the lead. Well spotted here.
#2 Dynatown	Has been a consistent closer and roared past rivals last time for her first win in two years; does well rallying into a fast pace.
#3 Centsless Drama	Can run only one way and will try to lead every jump; was second in her last two and could be difficult to catch.
Race Summary	Mo of the West has won two of four turf attempts and has won two of three since the change to the Mark Casse barn; can wear them down late.

Gulfstream Park - Race #10

#7 Travy Boy	Put down some sizzling fractions and tired for second last time; has shown excessive early speed lately but can score with a more relaxed trip.
#3 Royal Squeeze	Was third in the Opening Lead Stakes two races back and is capable of getting there at this level; has won several stakes races in his career and is still sharp at age 8.
#6 Frosted Grace	Has performed well in some fast races and seeks his first in a year; late threat.
Race Summary	Travy Boy was well clear and just could not last in his most recent race; does best from slightly off the pace and can get that kind of trip here.

Gulfstream Park - Race #11

#6 Great Sister Diane	Was a closing third in the Day at the Spa Stakes two back and should be very tough on this class drop.
#3 Lovely Luvy	Tired from early efforts in the Day at the Spa Stakes and normally runs from off the pace; can be tough returning to that style.
#7 Remarkable Soul	Routed foes three races back, is strong when she gets a clear early lead and that is a possibility here.
Race Summary	Great Sister Diane will have some pace in front of her this time and can score vs. these.

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THE LEGEND!
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Red Sox @ Braves
TIME: 3:10 PM EST
PICK: Braves -140

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VEGAS BLACK CARD CLUB!
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Cubs @ White Sox
TIME: 3:10 PM EST
PICKS: White Sox -124

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VEGAS SPORTS INSIDERS
SUNDAY 9/27/2020
FREE NFL PICKS
Bengals @ Eagles
TIME: 1:00 PM EST
PICK: OVER 47.5

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Steve Janus

Sep 27 '20, 1:00 PM in 7h
NFL | Titans vs Vikings
Play on: Vikings +2½ +100 at YouWager

1* Free Sharp Play on Vikings +2½ +100
The Vikings (+2.5) are worth a look as a small home dog against the Titans in Sunday's Week 3 NFL action. Minnesota couldn't have looked worse the first two weeks and now no one wants anything to do with this team. Titans come in 2-0 and getting a lot of love, but their two wins are against sub-par teams in the Broncos and Jaguars. They didn't dominate either of those games either. They only beat Denver 16-14 and snuck past Jacksonville 33-30. Expect the Vikings to give it everything they go, as their season has to feel like it's on the line at 0-2. I like Minnesota to not only win, but win comfortably. Play the Vikings +2.5!

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Vic Duke

Sep 27 '20, 1:00 PM in 7h
NFL | Bears vs Falcons
Play on: Bears +3½ -120 at Bovada

Bears/Falcons 1:00: Can't side with Falcons, a team that's giving up points by the bunch-load. Ranked dead last in scoring defense. Sure, Matt Ryan is tearing it up but the Bears' defense won't be that yielding. Julio Jones (GTD) is nursing a hamstring. And Bears should have DE Quinn (ankle) back to book end share with Khalil Mack. And CB Jaylon Johnson (rookie from Utah) is ready to challenge Ridley. We'll look for the Bears to continue to move the football as Trubisky (5 TD/2 INT) is having success with RB Montgomery and always reliable Allen Robinson. If TE Kmet (draft ND) can contribute, Bears can really be competitive here. Dog 4-1 ATS in last 5 meetings. No crowd, no problem for Trubisky as he should do well here.

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Mike Lundin

Sep 27 '20, 1:00 PM in 7h
NFL | Titans vs Vikings
Play on: Vikings +3 -120 at Bovada

Titans vs. Vikings Free Pick September 27, 2020
The Tennessee Titans are 2-0 SU on the season but failed to cover the spread against both Denver and Jacksonville. The Minnesota Vikings are 0-2 SU and ATS after losses to Green Bay and Indianapolis.
Last time out, Vikes QB Kirk Cousins threw three picks in their 28-11 loss to the Colts, and the betting market has reacted quickly to the Vikings poor start as the line has gone from a pick'em to Colts now asked to cover a field goal.
I think this is an overreaction as I'm not buying that Vikings are as bad as they've shown from the first two weeks, particularly considering no preseason games, and they have a solid history of bouncing back from losses home in Minnesota.
Free pick on Minnesota Vikings.

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1/ST INDEX Picks for Gulfstream's $745K Carryover Rainbow 6

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September 27, 2020
It’s closing day of the Gulfstream Park spring-summer meeting, which means a mandatory payout in the Rainbow 6. The $745,397 carryover will attract a multi-million dollar pool and create overlay payoffs for those lucky enough to take down the 20-cent base wager.

Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

Race 7 (3:22PM ET) // claiming // 5 furlongs (turf)

7 – Fort King (29% W)
6 – I’m Cardinal (14% W)
4 – Mar Vista Miguel (13% W)
1 – Earth (6% W)

Notable: At 7-2 in the morning line, Fort King is a much stronger selection by the 1/ST INDEX than the price indicates, 15 points higher than any other runner. These connections (Jaramillo/Baxter) are superb in local turf sprints.

Race 8 (3:55PM ET) // claiming // 7 furlongs

7 – Witch Hunter (30% W)
3 – Panarea (16% W)
2 – Chez Paree (12% W)
5 – Bibiana (10% W)

Notable: Panarea is a strong 8-5 morning line favorite, but 12-1 Witch Hunter gives a price alternative for those not convinced. And it’s a stark choice by the 1/ST INDEX by 14 points.

Race 9 (4:27PM ET) // allowance // 1 mile (turf)

7 – Aerodynamic (30% W)
2 – Dynatown (13% W)
3 – Centsless Drama (13% W)
15 – Free to Fly (8% W)
1 – Bajan Girl (7% W)

Notable: The top pick offers a nice 6-1 price and 17-point spread to the 9-5 morning line favorite Dynatown. That’s the largest spread for a top pick in the Rainbow 6 today.

Race 10 (4:59PM ET) // allowance // 6 furlongs

6 – Frosted Grace (31% W)
4 – Yodel E.A. Who (21% W)
3 – Royal Squeeze (14% W)
7 – Travy Boy (14% W)

Notable: Morning line favorite Frosted Grace is a pretty solid choice, and in a field of 7 this could be a place to narrow the ticket. The 31% rating is tied for highest in the sequence of any top choice.

Race 11 (5:29PM ET) // allowance // 1 mile (turf)

3 – Lovely Luvy (31% W)
6 – Great Sister Diane (15% W)
7 – Remarkable Soul (15% W)
8 – Bienville Street (9% W)

Notable: Rarely to you get 6-1 on the Zayas-Joseph tandem, so top choice Lovely Luvy likely drops in price. The 16-point spread is second-largest in the Rainbow 6 sequence today. The 31% rating is tied for highest in the sequence of any top choice.

Race 12 (5:59PM ET) // claiming // 5 furlongs turf

7 – Gran Diamond (27% W)
13 – Two Cents Worth (13% W)
3 – More Diamonds (12% W)
1 – Lecomcita (6% W)
14 – Dinner at Five (6% W)
16 – Reiterate (6% W)

Notable: Large field turf sprints can be scrambles, so this isn’t a bad place to consider some depth. However, Gran Diamond offers a 5-1 morning line proposition for top connections in Jaramillo and Barboza.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse)

Los Alamitos (Quarter Horse) - Race 7	$1 Exacta / $1 Trifecta $1 Superfecta (.10 cent minimum wager $1 Late Double
Claiming $16,000 • 300 Yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 80 • Purse: $9,535 • Post: 9:06P
QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $16,000.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Not Applicable (Quarter Horse). * KEY ANGLES * TRES ILLUSIONS: Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. LOVEPOP: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. FAVORITE BENZ: Quarter hor se has the highest last race Equibase Speed Rating. CANELITO: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. KISS MY FOOSE: Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
2	TRES ILLUSIONS	5/2	6/1
4	LOVEPOP	7/2	6/1
5	FAVORITE BENZ	12/1	7/1
1	CANELITO	3/1	7/1
6	KISS MY FOOSE	3/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	CANELITO	1	3/1	Average	77	72	4.4	0.0	0.0
2	TRES ILLUSIONS	2	5/2	Slow	78	77	7.2	0.0	0.0
3	VF FIRST PRIZE MAMA	3	5/1	Average/Trouble-prone	69	71	0.0	0.0	0.0
4	LOVEPOP	4	7/2	Slow	80	71	6.8	0.0	0.0
5	FAVORITE BENZ	5	12/1	Slow/Trouble-prone	78	74	0.0	0.0	0.0
6	KISS MY FOOSE	6	3/1	Slow	76	72	6.6	0.0	0.0

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Lethbridge

Lethbridge - Race 5	Exactor / Triactor / Superfecta
Claiming $3,200 • 7 Furlongs • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $4,300 • Post: 2:55P
FOR THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 120 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $3,200.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Stalker. POSTMAN is the Lone Stalker of the race. * KEY ANGLES * HERCULEAN: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. LOGAN 'S LEOPARD: Today is a sprint, horse is a Front-runner with an inside post position. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface. POSTMAN: Horse is dropping in class, has an inside post position and isn't a Trailer. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. B B PRINCE OF SCAT: Today is a sprint and the horse's last start was within the last ten days. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days.
2	HERCULEAN	9/5	9/2
1	LOGAN'S LEOPARD	7/1	5/1
4	POSTMAN	7/2	6/1
6	B B PRINCE OF SCAT	2/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	LOGAN'S LEOPARD	1	7/1	Front-runner	83	83	61.5	46.8	38.8
2	HERCULEAN	2	9/5	Front-runner	73	64	0.0	64.6	59.6
4	POSTMAN	4	7/2	Alternator/Stalker	68	56	16.4	62.6	56.1
6	B B PRINCE OF SCAT	6	2/1	Trailer	66	57	17.4	65.4	57.9
5	PHANTOM ZIP	5	6/1	Alternator/Non-contender	70	61	50.6	55.8	45.8
3	BOLD BULLDOG	3	3/1	Alternator/Non-contender	76	67	47.0	60.6	56.1

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Will Rogers Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 5 - Futurity - 350y on the Dirt. Purse: $142100 Class Rating: 91

QUARTER HORSE 350Y, OKLAHOMA HORSEMEN'S ASSOCIATION MYSTERY FUTURITY FINALS - GRADE 2 FOR OKLAHOMA-BRED TWO-YEAR-OLDS WHICH WERE NOMINATED AND QUALIFIED FOR THESE FINALS. WEIGHT, 124 LBS. TOTAL PURSE $142,100 OF WHICH $52,840 GOES TO 1ST PLACE, $23,778 TO 2ND, $15,852 TO 3RD, $10,568 TO 4TH, $7,926 TO 5TH, $6,605 TO 6TH, $5,284 TO 7TH,

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 3 SIN SATIONAL KISSER 12/1
# 7 FACING THE FIRE 3/1
# 5 DYNAMO SNOW 7/2

SIN SATIONAL KISSER has a very strong shot to take this affair especially at such a decent 12/1. This horse has been consistently running well recently. The winning percentage shown by horses entered by Willis running at this distance are the top in this group. FACING THE FIRE - Is worth thinking about and may be a bet - strong Equibase Speed Figures (82 average) at today's distance and surface recently. Should be given consideration here on the basis of the figs in the speed department alone. DYNAMO SNOW - Always seems to be close at the wire. Must be given consideration based on the formidable speed rating put up in the last contest.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountain-Prairies Pick 4 - Race #1 - Post: 6:45pm - Claiming - 5.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $8,500 Class Rating: 73

Rating:

#1 HEY HEY RUN AWAY (ML=6/1)
#7 ASTARTOBE (ML=8/1)
#10 CARRAMIAMINE (ML=5/2)
#4 TROOPER JENNY (ML=9/2)


HEY HEY RUN AWAY - This speedball is cutting back in distance today. Should help her chances to win. Each one of this mare's recent finish positions has been progressively better. Have to give this mare a shot. Ran a good effort in the last race within the last month or so. The 72 last race speed rating looks strong in the TrackMaster PPs. ASTARTOBE - This jockey/handler duo has been producing a very profitable ROI, right at +69. Look for this one to go to the winner's circle at some decent odds right here in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than 5 from the lead at the wire. CARRAMIAMINE - This filly is in first-rate form right now. Ended up first last time out and comes back rapidly. This animal has increased her speed ratings from a fig of 50 to 63 to 67 in succession. TROOPER JENNY - I took a look at this mare's finishes. She's almost always in-the-money. The rider and conditioner combination have a beneficial return on investment when they team up.

Vulnerable Contenders: #2 COPPER FOX (ML=7/2),

COPPER FOX - Didn't look like a winner last time out of the box. Probably won't make an impact in today's race.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Putting our cash on #1 HEY HEY RUN AWAY to win. Have to have odds of at least 9/2 or better though

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Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 300y on the Dirt. Purse: $11500 Class Rating: 83

QUARTER HORSE 300Y, FOR THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 125 LBS.; OLDER, 127 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 MOTT THE HOPPLE 2/1
# 8 BARBIE TALES 9/2
# 10 AJ QUICK CHICK 20/1

I've got to go with MOTT THE HOPPLE. Should keep the good string of finishes intact today. With a strong ROI of +106 this handler has shown very good results with entries running at this distance and surface. Trainer has strong win rate (35 percent) at this distance and surface. BARBIE TALES - She has garnered decent figs under today's conditions and will most likely fare well against this group of horses in this race. Is tough not to examine based on speed figs which have been decent - 74 avg - of late. AJ QUICK CHICK - This filly gets a boost with Packer in the saddle. Has been running in the most competitive company of the field lately.

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Woodbine - Race #2 - Post: 1:43pm - Claiming - 6.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $49,700 Class Rating: 82

Rating:

#8 TOO MANY MOUNTANS (ML=5/2)
#6 STORM GAUGE (ML=7/2)
#4 BLAZING BOURBON (ML=12/1)


TOO MANY MOUNTANS - I sense a speed battle developing here. If that happens, this filly will be in perfect stalking position to reel in the leaders. The ROI when Kimura and Buttigieg get together is fantastic. I like this filly. Has the highest earnings per start in this event. In this race here, this race horse has garnered the highest Equibase speed fig at the distance, so I have to give her the edge. STORM GAUGE - This filly is in good condition. Ran second on Sep 4th. Good return on investment for this jockey and handler duo. I'm focusing on the class of this horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. BLAZING BOURBON - I am keen on that recent race on Aug 29th at Woodbine where she finished first. Widely used handicapping angle - 3rd or 4th start after a vacation generally leads to a big effort. This one is live today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 ARAMON (ML=3/1), #3 LET'S HAVE FUN (ML=6/1), #7 PURPLE SCOOTER (ML=8/1),

ARAMON - This runner ran a most unsatisfactory rating last race out. She shouldn't run much better and will likely lose in today's race running that rating. LET'S HAVE FUN - Recent lessening speed ratings of 79/66/61 give an indication that this horse may be going off form. Difficult to wager on any horse to turn things around if there is no wager value to taking the risk. PURPLE SCOOTER - Don't feel this mount will do much running in today's event. That last speed fig was pedestrian when compared with today's Equibase class figure.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Put your money on #8 TOO MANY MOUNTANS on the nose if you can get odds of 5/2 or more
EXACTA WAGERS:	8 with [4,6]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [4,6,8] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Skip