Service Plays Saturday 9/26/20

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Millionaires club
top
arkansas

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Spartan

3* Mia Fla

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PHIL STEELE
central arkansas -10
citadel -10
so miss +3.5
miami florida -11

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Ultra Sports 9/26

army
louisville
charlotte (postponed)
so mississippi

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Inkbets

NCAAF: Kentucky +4 1H @ 1.885/-113 (3 Units)
-Opting for the 1st half line because I think it's necessary they cover 1H if they are going to cover the game. UK gets their starting QB in Wilson back after he missed last season with injury, their starting RB back, 4 starting offensive lineman, and 7 starters on defense. They're full of juniors and seniors on both sides of the ball and can finally put up a fight in the SEC to some extent.

Kentucky had the 11th ranked defensive line on football outsiders for last year, Auburn had the 39th ranked offensive line. In a game where controlling Bo Nix will be key, that's a matchup favoring Kentucky. They also have 2 stud linebackers to help that cause.

Matchup wise, UK fares pretty well. My only concern is general conditioning, discipline, and coaching over the course of the entire game. To cover full game, UK has to cover the 1H in my opinion so I'll just take the half line.


NCAAF: LSU -14 @ 1.90/-111 (3 Units)
-I wouldn't lay this a half point past 14. Line is from Bookmaker buying the half point.

Stingley was announced out and the line has tanked. He very well may be the best DB in the entire country, but the overadjustment is uncalled for. He was 1 of only 2 returning starters for LSU on the defense but they have a boatload of players who got a ton of snaps last year and are more than capable of doing their job.

KJ Costello transferred from Stanford to Miss St.. and as much as I like his arm talent and think he was limited at Stanford, he lacks prep time here. Zone blocking scheme for them on the O-Line can be punished here and I think LSU will do just that, which ends up negating Stingley missing the game to some extent.


NCAAF: Arkansas 1st Half TT Un6.5 @ 1.87/-115 (2 Units)
-Florida was instantly better last year once Feleipe Franks got hurt. Never been a fan of him and now he's the QB of Arkansas. Don't see him finding the endzone here vs the #1 ranked defense in the nation. Georgia has a legitimate chance to win it all this year if they get their offense going and this is just step 1. Fully expect a statement game from them here to open the year and lock down Franks and the rest of the abysmal Arkansas offense.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsline Computer

CFB

Army UN 45

[Lexdeoh20189]

Here are the picks for UFC 253 from Doc’s Sports
Take Jeff Hughes +250 over Juan Espino (7:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 FIGHT PASS)
In the featured fight pass prelim we have a heavyweight matchup between Jeff Hughes (10-3) and Juan Espino (10-1). Both of these guys came to the UFC from the contender series but have entirely different styles. Jeff Hughes isn't exactly highly skilled in any area, but he does pack a ton of power. He has 4 wins by KO in his 10 professional fights, and has shown a decent chin with only 1 loss coming by knockout. He is happy to stand and bang and always has the ability to catch his opponents whether in the pocket or coming forward with lunging haymakers. Juan Espino on the other hand has a lot more depth to his game. He can throw wild looping punches, and can look a little off balance, but his grappling ability is what makes him a tricky challenge. If Juan is able to get Hughes to the mat we have no doubts he will either finish him by ground and pound, or lock up a submission of some kind. His conditioning is pretty solid, especially for 37 years of age and is the rightful favorite in our opinion due to the extra layers and his more well-rounded abilities. However, Hughes always has the chance to land the big shot and is durable enough to make this interesting. The current market price of +250 is simply too high in our estimation and there is clear value on Hughes, win or lose. This should be priced closer to +185 or so. We do not recommend going big here so we will keep this small based on the value being offered.
Recommended Wager: Jeff Hughes +250

Take Brad Riddell -320 over Alex da Silva and Take Ketlin Vieira -190 over Sijara Eubanks (This is a two-leg Parlay at +100) (9:30p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 ESPN)
In the featured prelim of the evening, we have a lightweight matchup between Brad Riddell (8-1) and Alex da Silva (21-2). There isn't too much to assess in this one. Riddell is about as good a striker as there is when it comes to technique. He is a kickboxer with an extremely sharp and clean skillset. He has a unique ability to draw you in with his feints and he will tie awkward timed power combinations together as you come in. He has a high IQ and will not engage in risky exchanges... everything is calculated. His opponent, Alex da Silva has good KO power and has a decent ground game, but there's not really much else to say. He can always catch you, especially if he is able to throw off the timing of Riddell with the threat initiating grappling exchanges, but overall this is a clear fight for Brad to win or lose. We expect him to start slow as he assesses the movements and timing of da Silva, but eventually pull away more and more as the fight progresses. Assuming he is able to stay off his back, he should have his way here. Now, moving on to the second leg of this parlay, we have a women's bantamweight matchup between Ketlin Viera (10-1) and Sijara Eubanks (7-4). Eubanks is coming off a big upset win just a few weeks ago, and is on a very quick turnaround as a late replacement, which feels risky considering she will be facing a motivated Ketlin Viera who was undefeated until losing by KO to the ever impressive Irene Aldana. She was caught in that fight with a perfectly timed left hook, and not much else can, or should be said. Eubanks has a very good camp and is a world champion in Jiu-Jitsu although we haven't seen her attempt many submissions since coming to the UFC, which is ironic. Both these women have similar styles and approaches, but Vieira has fought the much stiffer competition, with wins over fighters such as Sara McMann, Cat Zingano and Ashley Evans Smith. It will be interesting to see how she bounces back from her first loss as a pro, but we expect a highly motivated performance. It should also be noted that due to some late cancellations, Eubanks will actually be cutting weight for the 3rd time in as little as a month. That takes its toll on the body no matter how you slice it. This should be a fun one, but one we think Vieria wins. There is value on the -190 in our opinion if you don't want to parlay, but we will hope Riddell wins as he should, leaving us with a very valuable position on Ketlin at +100 to close this out.
Recommended Wager: Brad Riddell -320 and Ketlin Vieira -190 (+100 Parlay)

Take Israel Adesanya -180 over Paulo Costa (11:59p.m., Saturday, September 26th, 2020 PPV)
In the main event of the evening, we have a middleweight title matchup between two undefeated fighters, Israel Adesanya (19-0) and Paulo Costa (13-0). Well, what can we say? This fight has so much hype behind it, and rightfully so. This is going to be extremely fun, and both guys are legitimate world class mixed martial artists, although in terms of style - both couldn't be more opposite. Champion Adesanya has a technical approach and is an elite striker who holds a ridiculous 75-5 kickboxing record. He brings a unique dynamic to the table and has an unshakable confidence that you simply don't see every day. He truly believes he is the world's best, and there is no denying it. In contrast - Paulo Costa is a monster who cuts a ton of weight; he packs a ton of power and will hunt you down non-stop until you cannot take the pressure and barrage of strikes anymore. The one thing we feel is being overlooked a little is the raw talent of Costa. It seems as though the narrative is simply that he is a knockout power puncher. This isn't the be all, end all of him. He also possesses extremely good timing, and is able to make reads on openings which make him a special talent besides his freak athletic build and pure strength. Paulo Costa also has extremely accurate and aggressive finishing instincts. He smells blood better than most, and when he has you hurt, he will find a way to finish you. It should be noted however, that Israel has a very impressive ability to avoid damage. He makes reads on his opponents body language better than anyone we've ever seen. Couple that with his reaction speeds and he becomes a very difficult puzzle for Costa to solve. However, we do have concerns about both men; What can Israel do from his back if put there? Can he take a big shot? Can he deal with the type of pressure Paulo will bring? How will Costa hold up if it makes it into the championship rounds? How will he deal with this level of opponent who can create endless traps and counter him? These are all questions we cannot wait to see answered. When it's all said and done, we expect this fight to be very competitive in the early stages, and Adesanya may have to take a shot or two and dig deeper than ever, but as the fight wears on, we expect a striking clinic, which will frustrate Costa. There is no denying both fighters' talent, but Israel has proven far more against the better competition, and has that air of 'greatness' about him. Costa simply does not possess endless tools nor the ability to switch game-plan, and we believe Israel will start to land at will once he figures out the movements and patterns (assuming he doesn't get smoked). We cannot ignore a more than fair price on potential one of the greatest fighters of this era. Costa is absolutely dangerous, but we think Adesanya is on a different level, both mentally and with his skill sets.

Recommended Wager: Israel Adesanya -180

[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports (MLB +7.82 year to date)
MLB All 1 unit plays
Yankees -1.5 runs -118
Royals -1.5 runs +147
Brewers -1.5 runs +145
Phillies -1.5 runs +150
Indians -1.5 runs +116
Angels/Dodgers Under 9

[rocky57]

H&H Sports
CFB
Triple Dime - Miami Florida -10 (-125)
Dime Play - Baylor -17
Dime Play - BYU -14

MLB
Triple Dime - Minnesota Twins -120
Double Dime - Philadelphia Phillies -110

[B*mb07]

Marco D'Angelo 4% Lakers -5

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BOB BALFE

College Football
7:30 PM EST
Rotation #405
Tennessee -3.5 over South Carolina
The Vols know the feeling of their season being shot on the first day of the year as last year Georgia State upset them. This is a team that struggled early on and could have thrown in the towel, but over the 2nd half of the season showed tremendous promise. The Vols bring back a lot of talent from last year and this coaching staff is another year wiser. South Carolina brings in a new offensive coordinator and with him a new QB from the Colorado State system. Collin Hill is not much of a mobile threat so it’s his arm that will have to carry this team that lost a lot of receivers. This is a rebuilding year for this offense. Jarrett Guarantano and the Vols are looking to pick up where they left off late last year. The Vols also return more starting talent on defense. Take Tennessee.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc's Sports

UFC 253

Take Jeff Hughes +250 over Juan Espino
Take Brad Riddell -320 over Alex da Silva and Take Ketlin Vieira -190 over Sijara Eubanks (This is a two-leg Parlay at +100)
Take Israel Adesanya -180 over Paulo Costa

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Wise

UFC

Since the UFC returned following a period of inactivity due to the coronavirus pandemic, Wise has gone 49-29-1 while nailing the method of victory 34 times

Israel Adesanya (-170) vs. Paulo Costa (+150): Costa by TKO

This is about as good of a matchup you can make at 185 pounds. With both fighters boasting unbeaten records, Adesanya and Costa have proven just how tough and technical they can be. While Adesanya can be incredibly quick and precise with his striking game -- just look at how he finished Robert Whittaker -- this is a whole other level of power in Costa. For Adesanya to win, he will need to evade those hammers of Costa for 25 minutes. For Costa, it may only take one or two to end things. I lean toward the man with insane power.

Dominick Reyes (-260) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+220): Blachowicz by decision

This fight feels like it's being way over inflated for Reyes as a crowning. Blachowicz has looked nothing short of impressive with wins in seven of his last eight bouts and displaying destructive power. Reyes has been great in his own right and went toe-to-toe with arguably the best MMA fighter of all time in his last appearance against Jon Jones. He also faded a bit in the latter rounds after going for broke early on. While I understand this line being so high in Reyes' favor, there isn't value to be had in a fight that feels closer to even. Blachowicz will be able to land some of those destructive bombs and carry this fight into deep waters.

Kai Kara-France (-230) vs. Brandon Royval (+195): Kara-France by decision

This is a fight that I love to go the distance if you can get in on the prop. Both guys have a decent finishing rate but have seen the scorecards a ton of late. Kara-France has faced some of UFC's best flyweights since joining the promotion in 2018. He's also a bad matchup for Royval, who looked overwhelmed by Tim Elliot before securing a submission win earlier this summer. Look for Kara-France to keep the distance and take the action to the ground to grind out his fifth win in six bouts.

Ketlen Vieira (-170) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+150): Viera by decision

Viera is coming off the first loss of her pro career, when she was shockingly knocked out by Irene Aldana in December. Before that, she was one of the division's rising stars and a potential title contender. Now, she gets Eubanks after Marion Reneau was forced out of action. Eubanks is durable and coming off a win just two weeks earlier. Typically, if a fighter scores a quick knockout or submission and gets a short turnaround, it makes more sense. But Eubanks went the distance with Julia Aliva, making this timeframe more puzzling. Viera should handle this fight with relative ease.

Zubaira Tukhugov (-115) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (-105): Tukhugov by decision

This is a big step up for both men looking to make a name at 145 pounds. This could turn into an all-action brawl early with the striking output both tend to put on display. Dawodu is a fun brawler, but he has struggled to find the same KO success he had prior to joining UFC. Tukhugov, meanwhile, is in a similar position, though he is coming off a TKO in February. Lean toward Tukhugov and his power to get the scorecards in his favor.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure

UFC

Israel Adesanya (-170) vs. Paulo Costa (+150): Adesanya
Dominick Reyes (-260) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+220): Reyes
Kai Kara-France (-230) vs. Brandon Royval (+195): Kara-France
Ketlen Vieira (-170) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+150): Vieira
Zubaira Tukhugov (-115) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (-105): Tukhugov
Brad Riddell (-320) vs. Alex Da Silva (+260): Riddell
Jake Matthews (-700) vs. Diego Sanchez (+500): Matthews
Shane Young (-140) vs. L'udovít Klein (+120): Klein
Aleksa Camur (-175) vs. William Knight (+155): Camur
Juan Espino (-300) vs. Jeff Hughes (+250): Espino
Khadis Ibragimov (-175) vs. Danilo Marques (+155): Ibragimov

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kyle Marley

UFC

Claim: Marley has hit 20 of his last 24 UFC main-event picks, a stretch that included five consecutive upsets.

Israel Adesanya (-170) vs. Paulo Costa (+150): Adesanya by TKO

Adesanya is the best striker in the UFC. He has amazing defense and can strike from all angles with any of his weapons. Costa, on the other hand, might be the scariest striker in the UFC behind Francis Ngannou. He looks like a statue and he has the power to come with it. Not only does he have big power, he throws at a high pace and can do it for a hard 15 minutes. I don't know that he can do that for 25 minutes, but he will need to if he can't get the knockout. Neither of these guys will be looking for takedowns so this will be the striking match we all want. Pick-wise, I struggled on this one and I went back and forth for the last couple weeks. Ultimately, I think the betting line is about right. Adesanya is going to be the pick, I do think he wins this fight more times than he loses it.

Dominick Reyes (-260) vs. Jan Blachowicz (+220): Reyes by decision

Reyes has been my pick to be the next champion at 205, I just didn't think it would come this early. With Jon Jones vacating his belt, it leaves the top spot wide open and I think Reyes is that guy now. I don't even think Blachowicz is in the top three, and Reyes should be better everywhere. Blachowicz has big power and he will have 25 minutes to land the big shot. But Reyes is the better and more dangerous striker, and he will likely be leading the striking volume as well. Maybe Blachowicz can land a couple takedowns, but it's hard to see him be able to get them consistently enough to win three rounds. Reyes should cruise to a decision win if he doesn't get a knockout of his own.

Kai Kara-France (-230) vs. Brandon Royval (+195): Kara-France by decision

This should be a striker versus grappler matchup. Kara-France should be winning the striking exchanges and landing more volume. Royval is going to look to get this fight to the mat and, if he can, maybe he can lock up a submission. But it's hard to see him winning two rounds with his grappling and top control, so maybe it's submission or bust for him. Kara-France should have the defensive wrestling to keep this on the feet, and he should win a fairly clear decision if that is the case.

Ketlen Vieira (-170) vs. Sijara Eubanks (+150): Vieira by decision

Eubanks had an impressive outing less than two weeks ago and now she has her third weight cut in four weeks. Not only is the weight cut an issue, but I don't see any real edges for Eubanks. Usually she has a grappling advantage and that is how she pulled off the upset against Julia Avila. Vieira should have the grappling edge and be the better and more dangerous striker as well. Vieira is the pick with probably a fairly clear decision win.

Zubaira Tukhugov (-115) vs. Hakeem Dawodu (-105): Dawodu by decision

Both fighters are well-rounded, but Dawodu should have the edge on the feet and Tukhugov should have the wrestling-grappling advantage. Tukhugov can win this fight on the feet, but would likely need a knockout. That's because Dawodu will be the guy throwing and landing more volume, and he is the more well-rounded striker. Tukhugov can rack up takedowns and look to win rounds, but I think Dawodu is more likely to get back up than Tukhugov is to submit him.

Brad Riddell (-320) vs. Alex Da Silva (+260): Riddell by TKO

Riddell has some top-notch striking and can give anybody in the division a battle on the feet. The ground is where people can take advantage of him a bit, and he has been taken down 11 times in two UFC fights. Da Silva is solid on the feet as well, but he will be at a disadvantage and will need to look to get this fight to the mat. He can make this fight close with takedowns and top-control time, but a submission is probably his most likely path to victory. Riddell can win this fight with a clear striking decision or clip Da Silva along the way and put him out.

Jake Matthews (-700) vs. Diego Sanchez (+500): Matthews by decision

Sanchez has been around since TUF 1 and he has been in some of the most exciting fights of all time. He just isn't the same guy anymore, and the striking is a complete shell of what it used to be. His grappling has earned him a couple UFC wins lately and he won by disqualification in his last fight, but there aren't any advantages for him in this fight. He can't fall back on the grappling against Matthews, who should win this fight with a clear decision.

Shane Young (-140) vs. L'udovít Klein (+120): Klein by TKO

Klein is making his UFC debut on late notice after Young's first opponent pulled out. He looks like he is UFC-ready and already could beat a lot of guys in the division. Young has solid striking but it's his pace that is most impressive. He landed more than 100 strikes in both his UFC wins and one of them was a second-round knockout. Klein looks like he should have the wrestling advantage and he is probably the more dangerous striker with his hands and kicks. Young might not be able to land that heavy volume against Klein and, if he tries, it could leave him open for a counter knockout. If this goes to a decision, I think Young would be more likely to win. But I am going to take the underdog to get a knockout upset.

Aleksa Camur (-175) vs. William Knight (+155): Camur by decision

Camur should be the quicker and more technical striker, but Knight is going to be the powerhouse looking for that one kill shot. Camur has finishing power as well, but you Knight should be the stronger fighter. If Knight wins, I would think it most likely comes by knockout. Camur can get a stoppage as well but he is much more likely to win a decision, so he is the pick.

Juan Espino (-300) vs. Jeff Hughes (+250): Hughes by TKO

Espino won the TUF 28 tournament and is now making his return to the octagon after a two-year layoff. He is purely a grappler and he will be looking to get this fight to the mat as early as possible. Hughes doesn't have big power for a heavyweight so he might not be able to get that one-punch KO before he is taken down, but he is the better striker and should win the striking exchanges if he can keep it on the feet. If Espino gets takedowns, he can keep top control long enough to win a round or maybe get a submission, but he is about to turn 40 in a couple weeks and is coming off a long layoff during a pandemic. Espino likely has one good round of heavy grappling in his tank and, if he can't get the finish, he is going to be stopped in the latter rounds.

Khadis Ibragimov (-175) vs. Danilo Marques (+155): Ibragimov by TKO

Ibragimov is 0-3 in the UFC and fighting for his job. In his first two fights, he came out of the gates hot and blew his gas tank and lost. In his third outing, he basically stood there and did nothing until he was knocked out late in the first round. He isn't a guy I would like to lay this much juice on in general, but he should have a big striking edge and that is enough for me to pick him to get the win. Marques looks like he doesn't have much to offer on the feet and he is going to look to grapple early and often. I just don't think he is good enough to consistently get takedowns or do much with them if he can't lock up a submission.