Service Plays Monday 9/28/20

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Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

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[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports
NFL - 2 Unit Plays
Kansas City Chiefs +3.5
Kansas City Chiefs/Baltimore Ravens Over 53.5

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Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 2:40 PM

KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Let’s just declare this the AFC Championship game. (It would be the Super Bowl if they were in different conferences). Don’t outthink it. Receiving more than a field goal on either side -- in this case, KC -- is irresistible. Baltimore was the more impressive squad Sunday, but the Chiefs’ offense faced a testy matchup that it eventually overcame. Its defense was unprepared for surprise starter Justin Herbert at QB.

10-3 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +675
14-4 IN LAST 18 BAL ATS PICKS | +950

13-5 IN LAST 18 KC ATS PICKS | +745


Mike McClure
MONEY
YESTERDAY 1:25 PM

KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
I was happy to see this move to +3.5 after the Chiefs struggled to beat the Chargers in overtime. On a neutral field, these teams are separated by 0.8 points in my simulations, with the Ravens having the edge. Add in 2.7 points for home field advantage and you have a number close to where the market is currently. However, I only give the Ravens one point for home field advantage under the current restrictions on fans, making the true spread -1.8 points for Baltimore. This is a tough spot for Bookmakers as they have to have at least -3 on the board with the public perception of both teams current form. Take the points.

6-2 IN LAST 8 NFL ATS PICKS | +380
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS | +290

2-1-1 IN LAST 4 BAL ATS PICKS | +90

[rocky57]

Toby Maxtone-Smith (VegasInsider Soccer Handicaper)
Monday 9/28
TV: Peacock - Time: 3:00 pm
Liverpool vs Arsenal
BEST BET - Liverpool -240

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DR. CHUCK FOOTBALL PLAYS

5% NFL WEEK 3 TOTAL CRUSHER!
Game: (489) Kansas City Chiefs at (490) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Sep 28 2020 8:15 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Total Over 53.5 (-110)

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R.J. White

KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 11:44 PM
I think we're getting an extra point here because the Chiefs struggled to score against the Chargers last week, but it was against a defense that knows them well and is built specifically to slow them down. The Chiefs beat the Ravens 33-28 last year but had a 30-13 lead entering the fourth quarter in a game where they split RB snaps between Darrel Williams and LeSean McCoy. Clyde Edwards-Helaire gives the offense a new dimension and puts more pressure on Ravens defense to slow down too many weapons. But the thinking is simple: if you can get more than a field goal with one of the two best teams in the NFL (and maybe the best), shouldn't you take it? I will.

15-6 IN LAST 21 NFL PICKS | +840
12-8 IN LAST 20 BAL ATS PICKS | +320

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Hank Goldberg
HAMMER
YESTERDAY 10:30 PM

BALTIMORE -3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
Patrick Mahomes has been a little slow out of the blocks, for his standards. The Ravens have a great running game, a great defense and I just think they're the better team right now. Lay the points.

7-5 IN LAST 12 NFL ATS PICKS | +150
4-1 IN LAST 5 KC ATS PICKS | +290

2-1 IN LAST 3 BAL ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Monday, Sep 28 2020 8:15PM
489 KAN / 490 BAL OVER 53.5 Bookmakerdouble-dime bet

Analysis: Patrick Mahomes is an underdog. We haven't heard that often, and we do like the Chiefs catching the 3.5. Mahomes is 5-0-1 ATS as a dog, and won 4 of the 6 games outright. But how has game script gone in those games that Mahomes has been an underdog?


The over has cashed in 5 of Mahomes 6 starts as an underdog. Those games did not only go over, they flew over, with those games averaging a combined 70.5 points per game. This hasn't just been a Mahomes trend either, as last year the Chiefs were underdogs in two games without him playing, and both of those games against Green Bay and Minnesota flew over the total.


The logic is simple on this: When you force an all time great quarterback into urgent situations, his aggressiveness and production is going to skyrocket. What other explanation is there for the fact that Mahomes has led the Chiefs to six consecutive victories when trailing by at least 10 points at any time during the game?


The Ravens offense is likely to put Mahomes in a position where urgency is needed, as they have matchup edges in the running game as well as skill position guys such as Mark Andrews and Hollywood Brown. Mahomes has shown time and time again he can deliver when pressed for points. Mahomes has been successful against the Ravens in the past two high scoring meetings (which averaged 55.5 PPG), passing for 751 yards in two meetings. Mahomes throws for 25 more passing yards per game on the road then at home in his career, and his touchdown rate spikes up one percent as well.


The implied team total for Kansas City in this game is 25. points, and the Patrick Mahomes led Chiefs offense has went over that team total in a remarkable 32 of 38 career games. If we are going to lose our KC +3.5 wager, it's likely going to be because of a Ravens offensive onslaught, now because of Mahomes struggling.

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Warren Sharp

2020 Week 3: 490 Baltimore Ravens first half -3 (1 unit)

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Larry Hartstein
SENIOR ANALYST
YESTERDAY 12:33 PM

KANSAS CITY +3.5
KANSAS CITY @ BALTIMORE | 9/28 | 8:15 PM EDT
This line move is an overreaction to how the Chiefs looked last week vs. a division opponent. These are the NFL's top two teams, by a wide margin. Look for a thriller that comes down to the wire, and take the points.

7-5-1 IN LAST 13 NFL ATS PICKS | +155
7-1 IN LAST 8 KC ATS PICKS | +595

10-6-1 IN LAST 17 BAL ATS PICKS | +339

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Football Jesus Podcast MON pick is Ravens

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Lv betting syndicate

Ravens

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Midwest NFL Handicapping

KC +3.5

Teaser
INDY -5.5/KC +9.5

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Toby Maxtone-Smith (VegasInsider Soccer Handicaper)
Monday 9/28
TV: Peacock - Time: 3:00 pm
Liverpool vs Arsenal
BEST BET - Liverpool -240

[rocky57]

Matt Blunt (VegasInsider NFL) - Baltimore Ravens/Kansas City Chiefs Under 55