Tuesday 9/29/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Finger Lakes - Race #1

#5 Honor Mission	Class dropper was in too tough last time while encountering plenty of trouble too, but the win two-back was strong, and he should be a price here; call to post the mild surprise.
#6 U Call Me Alex	Stiff ML favorite rises in class after a romp last time, and a repeat makes him tough, but he has real edge on figures, and will be vastly overbet as well; trying to beat at false odds.
#4 Count On America	Logical sort has been on a nice little run, and has been a clear 2nd behind romping winners in his last two at the level, though a 1-for-12 local mark doesn't inspire; underneath only.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML on the pick seems mighty juicy, as he not only will relish the class drop, but he meets a favorite who could regress, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since a win would add some value to the sequence right off the bat.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#2 Lady Mucho	NYRA miss gets a huge trainer change from Levine to Jeremiah, wasn't far out of this to begin with, and meets a field there for the taking; look out.
#4 Nicky Scissors	Stalker was in too tough in the Spa stakes but makes her first local start and will relish the company, though she's unknown at this trip; second-best.
#3 Vevey	Price player didn't disgrace herself in the two Spa turf sprints, is bred to like this trip, and fits on figures, and has a sprint win her too; worth a look.
Race Summary	That 5-1 ML won't stick on the 2, but even 7-2 or so seems fair on a gal who should run a lifetime best for her potent new trainer, and has several races showing that give her a big chance here, so play her aggressively to win and place, and especially to end the early Pk4, and kick off the Pk5 as well, since she a win over the 4 will knock out a lot of tickets in both sequences.

Finger Lakes - Race #7

#4 It's Hot Out	Speedster just missed at the level, meets no other early foot, and yet may not even be favored; long gone up front.
#1 San Juan Diego	Stretch runner won't like the pace but she was a close 3rd to the pick last time, and will be a price too; can get a share.
#2 Jemography	ML favorite will be closest to the pick early but bounced badly last time, and very easily get fried chasing; tread lightly.
Race Summary	Pace makes the race and no one is keeping the 4 honest early, which spells trouble for the late, so play her aggressively to win and place, while getting added value by singling her in the Pk5, and late Pk5 as well, since she looks poised to dominate this group on the front end.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#3 R Paper Chaser	Turned in a trio of decent efforts over the local turf and was in with some better groups along the way. Wouldn't want anything shorter than the 3/1 ML price.
#2 Dewyalovemenow	She has been very tough when racing at this level in the past, and she looks like the one to fear late in the lane.
#6 Dave's Texas Lady	Speed will probably have some company early, but she'll try to take them as far as she can on the lead. Worth noting that she did handle Dewyalovemenow back in July.
Race Summary	The top trio are all difficult to separate, but R Paper Chaser might offer the best number of the three and can get a first jump trip while tracking the speed.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#4 Prime Time	Tactical type tries the turf for the first time here, but he's got a pretty versatile kind of pedigree that suggests he may take to the new footing.
#8 Mr. Nobody	It took him 21 tries to get the maiden win, but he finally did going short on the turf. He gets back to that trip for the first time since and looks likely to be a handful.
#6 Run for Cash	His form is all over the place in advance of this turf debut, but his easy maiden win was also the only time he has raced for a tag, so he's not out of the question on the drop tonight.
Race Summary	Prime Time has the breeding to handle the turf, and if you toss the two-back route try, his form stacks up pretty well with these right now.

Mountaineer - Race #3

#2 Eye Have Candy	Proved a good fit with the locals last time out, and she'll now get back to to the turf which she only tried once in her career debut.
#8 Easy Tiger	Tactical type has turned things around for the new connections and is probably worth another look on the turf tonight.
#4 Waterloo Sunset	Speed has had 10 chances, so she's getting short on excuses, but she was second in a couple of tries with similar over the local course earlier this summer.
Race Summary	Eye Have Candy looks like a good fit here and is not exposed on the turf with just the one lifetime try on the surface. She meets a modest type of group for this one and can land this.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

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Meadowlands - Race #1

#8 GIMME SOME LOVIN	Big gaps between starts, good fit if ready, Merriman’s choice.
#2 AS SEELY PROMISED	War horse ran second to 2-1 repeater from post 8 in 250th start.
#1 JIMMYS LITTLE GIRL	Been pacing evenly against better after 10-win season in 2019.
Race Summary	Gimme Some Lovin paced evenly in a fast heat off the layoff when last seen in March. He should be on the move early from post 8 if he’s ready to go. Play a 1-2-8 exacta box.

Pocono Downs - Race #1

#1 GOLDEN SON	Trapped behind dueling leaders, evenly late while 5-wide.
#2 MOSCONI HANOVER	Hit board in 6 of 11 this year, close-up until stretch against odds-on winner.
#4 TV LAUXMONT	Gets needed class relief, numbers translate favorably to this level.
Race Summary	Golden Son lost pocket position before the half, was hemmed in until he angled wide in mid-stretch and finished with good energy. Give him another chance from the rail and play 1-2 and 1-4 exactas.

Pocono Downs - Race #5

#2 WYOMING WIND	Tired badly in last pair, all-or-nothing type with second-time Lasix.
#8 FLIRTY FORTY	Chased 5-2 winner after the 1-to-5 favorite pulled up early.
#7 PRIMROSE	First-over from same post in split race that timed a second faster.
Race Summary	Wyoming Wind back-pedaled to last with Lasix, but he can’t be discounted if he returns to his best form at an inflated price. Play 2-7 and 2-8 exactas.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Indiana Grand - Race #3

#8 Oscar P Q	Is a good closer in a short field mostly of speed; can get a clean trip and will be circling in on this group.
#1 Dont Ask Kinmon	Failed at two turns last time out and closed for third in a sprint two back; returns to a more comfortable distance and can make a run.
#4 Colonel Hubert	Has good early speed and will try to move to a commanding position at once; serious player.
Race Summary	Oscar P Q has good late energy and will get a good pace to chase; one to hold off.

Indiana Grand - Race #5

#6 Sunny Isle Beach	Made her latest start at Saratoga, where she was fourth in the Skidmore Stakes; Ward trainees always tough.
#4 Red Pepper Grill	Was an easy winner at Colonial in her only start; can press from the word 'go.'
#5 Docs Seven	Led at every call at Arlington in her only attempt; capable of a big effort in her return.
Race Summary	Sunny Isle Beach broke her maiden at Churchill and followed with the Saratoga effort; can get a good trip from off a rapid pace.

Indiana Grand - Race #9

#3 Lady Leah	Has two been very good only turf, including in her last two starts over this course; always a threat to take them wire to wire.
#8 Jordan's Kitten	Ran on well for fourth at Kentucky Downs after a couple of dull efforts at Indiana Grand; has won four of 13 on grass and is a late threat.
#2 W W Fitzy	Tired to fourth at Arlington and could give the top one a battle on the front end.
Race Summary	Lady Leah has overwhelmed her competition lately and is in a good spot for her third straight win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – White Sox -120
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Twins over 7.5
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Yankees over 6.5
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Rays -1.5
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Yankees -110
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Twins -165
7.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Rays over 7.5
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	MLB – Twins over 7.5
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – White Sox -120
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Yankees -110
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Twins over 7.5
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Rays -1.5
13.	SCORE	MLB – White Sox -120
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Twins over 7.5
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Rays -1.5
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Yankees over 6.5
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Twins -165
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Rays -1.5
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – White Sox -120
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Rays over 7.5
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Yankees -110
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – White Sox -120
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Rays -1.5
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Twins -165
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – White Sox over 7.5

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THE LEGEND!
FREE MLB PLAYOFFS PICKS
Blue Jays @ Rays
TIME: 5:00 PM EST
PICK: OVER 7.5

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VEGAS SPORTS INSIDERS
TUESDAY 9/29/2020
FREE MLB PLAYOFFS PICKS
Blue Jays @ Rays
TIME: 5:00 PM EST
PICK: OVER 7

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BOB BALFE

MLB
3:00 PM EST
Rotation #937
White Sox -125 over A’s
Giolito/Luzardo
Both pitches have been great this year. Lucas Giolito has been on fire as of late and we do have to remember that Jesus Luzardo is a young rookie pitcher. One quality the White Sox have is their ability to get after left handed pitching. Luzardo is excellent against left handed hitters so this is going to be a great battle today. I lean to the more experience pitcher today and to the road team that has the ability to hit left handed pitching. Take the White Sox.

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F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

Presque Isle Downs - Race 1	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-2-3) Pick 5 (min .50 cent) (Races 1-5)
Claiming $20,000 • 1 Mile • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 81 • Purse: $22,000 • Post: 4:45P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 119 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 3 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000 (CLAIMING RACES FOR $15,000 OR LESS NOT CONSIDERED IN ESTIMATING ALLOWANCES) (LIMITED TO10 STARTERS).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * BLACKLINE: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. BUGLE BARRY: Horse has run a Good Race within the l ast 30 days. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. THE QUANTICO KID: Horse's win percentage at today's distance(sprint or route)/surface (dirt or turf) is at least 50. Horse had a bullet workout within the last seven days. TEM PLE CITY STAR: Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. Jockey/Trainer combination return on investment is at least +20.
3	BLACKLINE	6/5	7/2
7	BUGLE BARRY	8/1	7/1
5	THE QUANTICO KID	4/1	9/1
6	TEMPLE CITY STAR	8/1	9/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
7	BUGLE BARRY	7	8/1	Stalker	86	74	61.8	76.0	69.5
2	CRAZY KATER	2	5/1	Stalker	79	78	46.5	57.2	45.2
1	SPETTACOLI (ARG)	1	8/1	Stalker	82	73	42.3	69.7	62.2
3	BLACKLINE	3	6/5	Trailer	96	90	85.3	63.5	61.0
5	THE QUANTICO KID	5	4/1	Trailer	82	73	62.5	70.2	58.2
6	TEMPLE CITY STAR	6	8/1	Trailer	80	74	59.6	72.8	63.8
4	BUFFALO MAX	4	6/1	Trailer	81	75	50.0	73.4	63.9
1A	PREQUALIFIED	8	8/1	Alternator/Non-contender	79	73	59.5	66.2	53.7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Belterra Park

Belterra Park - Race 1	Exacta / 50 cent Trifecta / 10 cent Superfecta / Daily Double 50 cent Pick 3 (Races 1-2-3) / 50 cent Pick 4 (Races 1-2-3-4)
Maiden Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 53 • Purse: $7,500 • Post: 12:35
FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000 (OHIO REGISTERED FOALS PREFERRED).

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Paceless Race. There is no true early speed in this race. * KEY ANGLES * CUP GAME: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse has run a Good Race within the last 30 days. MOON'S IMAGE: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. DRASTIC MEASURES: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rati ng.
5	CUP GAME	5/2	5/2
3	MOON'S IMAGE	3/1	9/2
1	DRASTIC MEASURES	4/1	7/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
1	DRASTIC MEASURES	1	4/1	Alternator/Stalker	0	0	53.2	42.6	36.6
5	CUP GAME	5	5/2	Trailer	54	50	40.4	51.6	49.1
3	MOON'S IMAGE	3	3/1	Trailer	59	49	31.2	47.1	41.6
4	CHEROKEE HAWK	4	7/2	Alternator/Non-contender	55	48	59.6	35.6	28.1
6	STERLING JUDGE	6	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	54.3	32.1	22.6
2	MONEY PIT	2	12/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	37.2	40.0	29.5

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Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:28pm - Maiden Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $6,700 Class Rating: 56

Rating:

#1 WHISKYFORBREAKFAST (ML=2/1)


WHISKYFORBREAKFAST - You have to be keen on that recent race speed rating, 56, which is the best latest race speed figure of this bunch. Faced tougher in the last race at Canterbury Park. Based on class ratings, this is a weaker field, so I will put this horse on my list of choice plays. Three consecutive improved speed figures (21-51-56) make this thoroughbred a dominant contender.

Vulnerable Contenders: #8 GRANDPA JIM (ML=3/1), #2 PABLO'S QUEST (ML=9/2), #5 DR. APPROVAL (ML=8/1),

GRANDPA JIM - The speed rating in the last race doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class figure of today's contest. Mark this thoroughbred as a possibly overvalued contestant. PABLO'S QUEST - Generally I need a sprinter to have some recent good showings in short distance races in order to back him. Difficult to put any money on this gelding on the front end. Likes to land in the top three though. DR. APPROVAL - This horse likes to finish in the money, but doesn't usually finish first. Forget the top spot.

GUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - WHISKYFORBREAKFAST - Put a wager on this gelding. In the top spot in earnings per start and has a lot more to offer as well.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #1 WHISKYFORBREAKFAST on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Pass
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Finger Lakes

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Allowance - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $21000 Class Rating: 76

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE AUGUST 29 ALLOWED 2 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 4 NICKY SCISSORS 9/5
# 1 TROPICAL STORM EM 3/1
# 5 HAYEZHEE 12/1

NICKY SCISSORS looks to be a very strong contender. Must be given consideration here on the basis of the figures in the speed realm alone. Will probably come out strong - I have liked the way this filly has moved speedily to the lead recently. Ran a strong last race. TROPICAL STORM EM - Ferraro has a strong win percentage with horses running in dirt route races. Could beat this group of horses given the 68 speed figure earned in her last outing. HAYEZHEE - Looks quite good to be on or close to the front end at the first call. Sells has this filly racing well and is a formidable selection based on the very good speed figs recorded in route races recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $33000 Class Rating: 58

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS MAIDENS, TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 6 CATCH THE SPARROW 12/1
# 4 FORENSIC FILE 9/2
# 7 RACE FOR THE PLACE 12/1

CATCH THE SPARROW is my pick and is a very good value bet given the line at 12/1. Based on past performances, bets on the progeny of this sire would be considered reliable. FORENSIC FILE - Excellent chance to hit the wire ahead of this group of horses in this race given sire's 1st time starter figures who win at a 19 percent clip. Horses who have been prepared to race at this distance and surface by Holthus have shown solid results recently.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Thistledown - Race #6 - Post: 3:20pm - Claiming - 8.2 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $14,600 Class Rating: 63

Rating:

#1 NEVANS (ML=5/2)
#5 TANCAHUA (ML=3/1)


NEVANS - As the only speed freak in the race, I expect this gelding to be long gone. That 72 fig this gelding garnered in his last clash tells me he's a chief player in today's event. TANCAHUA - Racing at a similar level as last race on Sep 15th at Thistledown. I think Zielinski has found a good spot for him, and I like his chances in this field. PP lines show this horse with 3 improving speed figures. Gonzalez should be on a live one right here in this race.

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 SCHMULTZY (ML=7/2), #4 HIGH DOLLAR (ML=6/1), #7 PRECIOUS JULES (ML=6/1),

SCHMULTZY - Tough to take this questionable contender at the price after the result (fifth) in the last race. HIGH DOLLAR - Earned his best speed figure last time around the track, but the track conditions may have played a major role in the outcome. PRECIOUS JULES - Ran well to finish third on Sep 2nd, but hasn't had even one work since then.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#1 NEVANS to win at post-time odds of 7/5 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	Box [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Pass
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	Pass