Saturday 10/3/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2020, 09:48 AM

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SATURDAY 10/3/20
Memphis @ SMU
Time: 3:30 PM EST
Free Pick: OVER 74.5

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 09-29-2020, 09:49 AM

Sports Action 365
FREE CFB WINNER 10/3/20:
PLAY LSU @ Vanderbilt OVER 50, GAME TIME 7:30 PM EST

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 01:33 AM

1/ST INDEX Full-Card Picks for Preakness Day

October 2, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
It’s Preakness Day at Pimlico as the Maryland Jockey Club plays host to the final jewel in the 2020 Triple Crown. Selections provided by the 1/ST INDEX measure each contender against the 10 leading factors for each race. The 1/ST BET app looks at 52 handicapping factors and more than 200,000 past races to determine its AI selections. You can use the automated handicapping factors, or create your own factor filters to incorporate angles you prefer.

RACE 1 (11:00AM ET) // SELIMA S. ($150K) // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

4-DOMAIN EXPERTISE // 33%
2-GOLDEN VOICE // 20%
1-FLUFFY SOCKS // 14%
3-INVINCIBLE GAL (GB) // 9%

Notable: The 33% for Domain Expertise matches Preakness favorite Authentic for highest on the card by the 1/ST INDEX. The 5-2 morning line favorite is expected to get the day off to a formful start as the top 4 morning line choices match up with the computer.

RACE 2 (11:35AM ET) // G3 GALLORETTE S. ($150K) // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)

3-SHE’SONTHEWARPATH // 31%
1-JULIET FOXTROT (GB) // 19%
8- VARENKA // 11%
6-STORM THE HILL 11%

Notable: The 1/ST INDEX is calling for an upset as 7-5 morning line chalk Juliet Foxtrot checks in a significant 12 points behind 7-2 morning line proposition She’sonthewarpath.

RACE 3 (12:10PM ET) // SKIPAT S. ($100K) // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

6-BRONX BEAUTY // 30%
5-BYE BYE J // 28%
1-CHALON // 11%
4-LIZA STAR // 10%

Notable: Solid prices on the top pair Bronx Beauty (9-2) and Bye Bye J (4-1) as the morning line favorite Chalon (5-2) rates far back in third on the 1/ST INDEX.

RACE 4 (12:46PM ET) // HILLTOP S. ($100K) // 1 MILE (TURF)

2-CHART // 30%
4-AMERICAN GIANT // 10%
3-CARAVEL // 10%
11-LUCKY JINGLE // 10%

Notable: The 20-point spread from first to second choice is tied for largest on today’s card, according to the 1/ST INDEX. Woodbine shipper Chart (5-1) is not the favorite, while morning line chalk Vigilante’s Way (9-2) is snubbed by the algorithm.

RACE 5 (1:22PM ET) // G3 MISS PREAKNESS S. ($150K) // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)

5-MUNDAYE CALL // 29%
1-AIN’T NO ELMERS // 20%
3-FLY ON ANGEL // 17%
7-PRINCESS CADEY // 13%

Notable: Top two morning line choices Mundaye Call (7-5) and Ain’t No Elmers (7-2) hold steady atop the 1/ST INDEX as well. The interesting exotics horse here could be Princess Cadey (15-1), who will be rallying at a big price into an expected very hot pace.

RACE 6 (2:01PM ET) // G2 DINNER PARTY S. ($250K) // 1 1/16 FURLONGS (TURF)
7-FACTOR THIS // 26%
2-SOMELIKEITHOTBROWN // 25%
3-HEMBREE // 17%
6-DOCTOR MOUNTY // 10%

Notable: Even-money morning line favorite Factor This eeks out top billing in the 1/ST INDEX over Somelikeithotbrown (5-1). The latter surely will offer more value in the win pool based on that.

RACE 7 (2:42PM ET) // G3 FRANK J. DE FRANCIS MEMORIAL DASH ($200K) // 6 FURLONGS (DIRT)
5-LANDESKOG // 28%
3-EASTERN BAY // 19%
1-ADMIRAL LYNCH // 16%
4-LAKI // 12%

Notable: Landeskog appears a more than capable favorite in this spot at 5-2 in the morning line. Value player Eastern Bay (10-1) intrigues on price as a sharp local.

RACE 8 (3:22PM ET) // LAUREL FUTURITY ($150K) // 1 1/16 MILES (TURF)
8-HIDDEN ENEMY (IRE) // 18%
9-TIJUANA BRASS // 17%
10-NAUTILUS // 15%
4-KIDNAPPED // 11%

Notable: With the top 3 within 3 percentage points in the 1/ST INDEX, the algorithm makes this is the most competitive race on the card. Morning line favorite Pivotal Mission (3-1) doesn’t impress the algorithm, while 20-1 shot Tijuana Brass could blow up the tote.

RACE 9 (4:02PM ET) // JAMES W. MURPHY S. ($100K) // 1 MILE (TURF)

11-BUY LAND AND SEE // 30%
1-CHOCOLATE BAR // 10%
13-BYE BYE MELVIN // 10%
7-VANZZY // 10%

Notable: The 20-point spread from first to second choice is tied for largest on today’s card, according to the 1/ST INDEX. And it comes with an 8-1 morning line proposition in Buy Land and See. If the algorithm is on point, this could be a highly valuable runner in the multi-race wagers, as well as intra-race, in a race that looks very difficult on paper.

RACE 10 (4:41PM ET) // G2 BLACK-EYED SUSAN S. ($250K) // 1 1/8 MILES (DIRT)
5-BONNY SOUTH // 28%
8-HOPEFUL GROWTH // 14%
9-MISS MARISSA // 11%
10-LANDING ZONE // 10%

Notable: Solid favorite Bonny South (7-5 morning line) figures to out-class her rivals and doubles up her competition here, according to the 1/ST INDEX. Class riser Miss Marissa (12-1) adds exotics value.

RACE 11 (5:36 PM ET) // G1 PREAKNESS ($1M) // 1 3/16 MILES (DIRT)

9-AUTHENTIC // 33%
4-SWISS SKYDIVER // 14%
8-MAX PLAYER // 10%
7-NY TRAFFIC // 10%

Notable: The 33% for Authentic is co-highest on the card by the 1/ST INDEX, which surprisingly doesn’t share respect for second betting favorite Art Collector. Exotics value players in the Preakness may look to 15-1 price players Max Player and Ny Traffic.

*** The 1/ST INDEX data includes all North American Thoroughbred races, and therefore selections for Race 12, the UAE President’s Cup for Arabians, are not available. ***

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 01:35 AM

Eddie Olczyk: Faith Remains in Art Collector for Preakness 145

October 1, 2020
Analysis: Watching these 3-year-olds prep all season toward the delayed Triple Crown, the horse I really wanted to bet finally will get his chance to run in Saturday’s Preakness. ART COLLECTOR has had my attention for months, and he’ll have the attention of the Kentucky Derby winner AUTHENTIC when those two lock up at Pimlico. The two favorites appear trustworthy in the series finale, but horseplayers looking for value will be digging for a longshot to include in the exotics.

Main Contenders: AUTHENTIC is the favorite and Bob Baffert merits respect in the Preakness. But Baffert’s past success (a record 7 wins in this race) only should help the price on ART COLLECTOR, who is a fair 5-2 in the morning line. ART COLLECTOR should get a great trip. He’s tactical; if it goes really quick, he can sit. If for some reason AUTHENTIC doesn’t show his customary speed, he can be right there from the break. Expect ART COLLECTOR to be sitting just behind AUTHENTIC, and perhaps NY TRAFFIC and SWISS SKYDIVER, with a chance to pounce. ART COLLECTOR has been lights out since going around 2 turns and really has found his stride. I’m not worried about his minor foot issue that kept him out of the Kentucky Derby.

Value Plays: LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE will be my price player. The runner-up in the Jim Dandy should get the distance and won’t have to close from out of the clouds like some of the other longshot considerations. You can catch my last-minute analysis on the NBC telecast (4:30-6 pm ET), but honestly, I don’t really like anyone else in the race. It’s these 3 for me. MAX PLAYER could clunk up for the bottom of the superfecta.

$100 Betting Strategy

- $40 Win: ART COLLECTOR ($40)
- $16 Exacta: ART COLLECTOR over AUTHENTIC ($16)
- $8 Exacta: ART COLLECTOR over LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ($8)
- $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ART COLLECTOR over AUTHENTIC, LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE over ALL ($18)
- $1 Trifecta Part-Wheel: ART COLLECTOR over ALL over AUTHENTIC, LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE ($18)

Eddie's Picks

1. ART COLLECTOR
2. AUTHENTIC
3. LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE
4. MAX PLAYER

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 01:36 AM

Race of the Week: Black-Eyed Susan at Pimlico

September 30, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
$250,000 GRADE 2 BLACK-EYED SUSAN STAKES AT PIMLICO
Saturday, October 3, 2020

The Lead:
The fillies' version of the Preakness Stakes shifts to Saturday's undercard at Pimlico from its traditional Friday perch. The 1-1/8 miles Black-Eyed Susan will be Race 10 of 12, and immediately precede the Preakness on NBC's national telecast. It's a race whose storied history dates back to 1919 and boasts contemporary superstars Serena's Song, Silverbulletday and Royal Delta among its honor roll of winners.

Field Depth:
PERFECT ALIBI was a G1 and G2 winner as a juvenile last year. BONNY SOUTH has a victory at the G2 level and a G1 runner-up on her resume. Those two certainly have the class edge. PROJECT WHISKEY and HOPEFUL GROWTH have won G3 races. The rest are looking for signature victories.

Pace:
MIZZEN BEAU, MISS MARISSA and LANDING ZONE all should show early foot from outer post positions, while PROJECT WHISKEY could be injected into the early mix from the rail and with pace versatility. It looks like a fair pace that should give all styles a chance to show their best.

Our Eyes:
Morning line favorite BONNY SOUTH has faced the tops of this division, and her spring victory in the G2 Fair Grounds Oaks annually is one of the more telling 3-year-old filly races. She's part of a fantastic fleet of sophomore gals for trainer Brad Cox, which also includes Kentucky Oaks heroine Shedaresthedevil and reigning 2YO champ British Idiom (sidelined since May). BONNY SOUTH is a strong finisher who will relish the 1-1/8 miles here when others may struggle with it. After chasing the likes of Swiss Skydiver, Speech, Venetian Harbor and recent Remington Park Oaks winner Envoutante, this should be an assignment she appreciates.

PERFECT ALIBI was brilliant early, but hasn't lived up to the bar she set sprinting in her first 4 starts. The Mark Casse trainee bombed in her first 2 starts this year and found some life in the local prep across the beltway at Laurel Park when third in the Weber City Miss Stakes. Trainer Mark Casse had a huge Preakness Week in 2019 that culminated in War of Will's victory in the headliner. He'll add blinkers and speed jockey Paco Lopez to the mix here, and from post 11, PERFECT ALIBI should be much closer to the pace than usual. But 9 furlongs from that draw is no easy task.

HOPEFUL GROWTH and PROJECT WHISKEY ran 1-2 in the Monmouth Oaks with the former handling business with ease by 4 lengths. But PROJECT WHISKEY easily bested her rival in the race prior, the Delaware Oaks. Both since have laid an egg with double-digit length defeats in the Kentucky Oaks and Weber City Miss. Their hot and cold resumes are difficult to trust, but if you're in either camp, just be sure to get a fair price. PROJECT WHISKEY is about double the morning line price of HOPEFUL GROWTH. Meanwhile, DREAM MARIE has nibbled in major stakes trying to find the right spot, but she's failed to deliver in those 7 bids. She's not too far off past rivals HOPEFUL GROWTH and PROJECT WHISKEY, and another that demands a square price.

MIZZEN BEAU and TRUTH HURTS exit a 1-2 finish in Woodbine's Bison City on synthetic against Canadian-bred runners. But that race was seriously impacted in quality when the Woodbine Oaks winner instead opted to run in the Queen's Plate against the boys. Expect MIZZEN BEAU to be ridden on or near the lead by Brian Hernandez Jr. as he warms up for his pace-playing Preakness mount aboard Art Collector. Back on dirt, I prefer TRUTH HURTS among this pair.

LANDING ZONE and SO DARN NOT ran 1-2 in a recent Delaware allowance. The former is an ex-claimer who has gotten good of late for leading local trainer Claudio Gonzalez. But her style and pedigree suggest 9F is too far. SO DARN HOT, however, has a classic-distance genepool by Ghostzapper out of a Tiznow mare. Finally, SHARP STAR got a big 104 BRIS late pace figure in her runner-up in Saratoga's Fleet Indian vs. NY-breds.

Most Certain Exotics Contender: BONNY SOUTH is 6-for-6 in the superfecta and the class of this field.

Best Longshot Exotics Contender: SO DARN HOT has a pedigree for the trip, is improving and her trainer George Weaver saddled last year's Black-Eyed Susan winner Point of Honor, who also was lightly raced at the time.

Sending it in ($100 bankroll): $25 exacta BONNY SOUTH with SO DARN HOT. $75 daily double BONNY SOUTH to Preakness top choice AUTHENTIC.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 01:37 AM

Preakness Pace Forecast: Cloudy

September 30, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
The skies are expected to be clear at Old Hilltop on Saturday as Pimlico hosts the Preakness for the 145th time. But forecasting the pace of the race figures to be more dicey. The merry stroll Authentic went on in the Kentucky Derby remains one of the possibilities in the encore, but it’s one of many plausible looks. Pace makes the race; and if you figure this one out, you likely get the financial prize.

Here’s how I see the contenders on preferred running styles.

Speed: Authentic

Press: Art Collector, Swiss Skydiver, Ny Traffic, Thousand Words

Middle: Jesus’ Team, Liveyourbeastlife, Pneumatic

Closer: Excession, Mr. Big News, Max Player

That rundown looks a lot like the Kentucky Derby, where Authentic was the only horse committed to the front. And both races start at the far end of the homestretch with a massive run to the clubhouse turn, providing ample time for a horse with Authentic’s speed to overcome a less-than-perfect start and still wrestle command – precisely what happened in Louisville.

But three members of the ‘press’ corps here, all but Ny Traffic, are new to the scene at Pimlico.

It’s the biggest Triple Crown mount of Brian Hernandez Jr.’s life aboard Art Collector and he could be tasked with doing the dirty work in attacking Authentic. Trainer Tommy Drury says the horse’s pace versatility could come in handy, and that’s true. It also could lead to indecision.

We’ve seen Ny Traffic twice try to chase to no avail in the Haskell and Derby when ridden by the hyper-aggressive Paco Lopez. Now local veteran Horacio Karamanos takes over, and while a strong speed jock as well, you can’t see him being even more Paco than Paco.

Meanwhile, Thousand Words and jockey Florent Geroux can’t be expected to attack Baffert stablemate Authentic … especially if you recall the blocking formation that pairing provided Justify in the 2018 Belmont. Plus, Thousand Words simply isn’t as naturally fast or brilliant as Authentic. It would take a kamikaze mission, or an adverse reaction to going blinkers on (which I completely don’t understand here), for Thousand Words to be the pace thorn for Authentic.

And then there’s the filly Swiss Skydiver, whose jockey Tyler Gaffalione didn’t want to give up opening weekend at Keeneland. She winds up with the oft-aggressive Robby Albarado, years removed from relevance in racing’s big events. Does Albarado want to go out in a blaze of glory in attack mode (and finish first or last), or try to resurrect his waning career by riding conservatively and giving his filly every chance to be good enough if she can?

So where does the pressure on Authentic come from? I mentioned earlier this was Brian Hernandez’s biggest Triple Crown ride, but not in his career. That came in the $5 million Breeders’ Cup Classic of 2012 when piloting Fort Larned. When faced against heavily favored Bob Baffert speedster Game On Dude, Hernandez aggressively sent Fort Larned to the lead, and when Game On Dude broke poorly, it led to a wire-to-wire upset on the big stage. Art Collector is in a similar post, similar field size and similar pressure cooker to what Hernandez experienced with Fort Larned the last time he was in this type of situation. He didn’t back down then, and my guess is that he won’t on Saturday.

I look for Art Collector to go after Authentic from the start, and may the best horse win. This does not compute to a 3,4 or 5-way pace scrum in my projection. The top 2 will duke it out, which sometimes welcomes a closer to split them late in the exacta when 1 wanes. But I’ll be surprised if it melts down and compromises both, who appear to have a solid gap between them and the rest of the field on talent.

The Preakness rarely ever melts down to a deep closer. In the last 20 years, the only way-back types to win this race were Point Given, Curlin and Exaggerator, the latter freaking in the mud in 2016. When you look at the horses from the middle or back of this pack, none of them come close to warming up those kind of names.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 01:39 AM

Preakness Stakes Post Position Draw Rapid Reaction

September 28, 2020 | By Jeremy Plonk
The final jewel in the 2020 Triple Crown assembled a field of 11 Monday, led by Kentucky Derby victor Authentic. The 145th Preakness Stakes at Pimlico headlines a dozen races Saturday at Old Hilltop, all stakes. Authentic and stablemate Thousand Words seek to give trainer Bob Baffert a record-breaking eighth career win in the Preakness, while Swiss Skydiver will try to become just the second filly to win this race since 1924.

Authentic won the Kentucky Derby wire-to-wire and his Preakness post 9 is a favorable draw given his pace style, his jockey and where the others have drawn. Jockey John Velazquez aboard Authentic loves to stay a few paths off the rail with speed horses and force others wider around him. Potential pace players Art Collector, Swiss Skydiver and Thousand Words (who races with blinkers on) are new to the Triple Crown series and all line up together in posts 3-5. It’s good news that Authentic wasn’t stuck inside all of that heat. Ny Traffic chased Authentic to no avail in the Haskell and Kentucky Derby, but can be counted on for some pressing presence from post 7.

There is potential for the trip to offer challenges to Authentic if that inside speed hooks up and riders get aggressive. Authentic could lose some ground on the clubhouse turn or be forced to either expend more energy to clear or decide to tuck in behind the speed. That last scenario after a poor break in the Santa Anita Derby resulted in his only career loss. The late additions to this field of Swiss Skydiver and Ny Traffic certainly have the ability to increase the previously expected Preakness pace.

Due to COVID-19 travel restrictions to and from major racing jurisdictions, several Maryland-based jockeys will be in the Preakness spotlight.

The full field for Preakness 145 with track linemaker Keith Feustle’s morning line odds:

1-Excession (Sheldon Russell) 30-1
2- Mr. Big News (Gabriel Saez) 12-1
3-Art Collector (Brian Hernandez Jr.) 5-2
4-Swiss Skydiver (Robby Albarado) 6-1
5-Thousand Words (Florent Geroux) 6-1
6-Jesus’ Team (Jevian Toledo) 30-1
7-Ny Traffic (Horacio Karamanos) 15-1
8-Max Player (Paco Lopez) 15-1
9-Authentic (John Velazquez) 9-5
10-Pneumatic (Joe Bravo) 20-1
11-Liveyourbeastlife (Trevor McCarthy) 30-1

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 07:26 AM

Al Cimaglia: Meadowlands Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 3, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Tonight's feature at the Meadowlands rolls in Race 9, a Preferred Pace with a $22,500 purse. The 0.50 Early Pick 4 starts in Race 6, it has a 15% takeout and it will be my focus.

On Friday, the driver with the hottest hands was Victor Kirby who steered four winners. All 13-races on last night's card were won by different trainers.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 6

3-Decision Day (7/2)-Drops to a spot to shine and has been facing some fast company. This is a beatable field and a spot for camera shy 5-year-old to take a picture.
6-Stonedust (3-1)-Was in the mix at this class before the lock down and now makes 3rd start off the bench. Will need a trip plus a lively pace and both are possible so will respect chances.
8-Griffon Hanover (8-1)-Looking for a price in a race without a standout. Could be another helped by some quick fractions and George Naps can grind way around and put into striking range.

Race 7

1-Spirit Truth (7/2)-Has been facing better at Freehold and has beaten tougher here back in July. Should be in position to get a good early seat and could trip out.
7-Cheyenne Ryan Lee (3-1)-Winner of last 3 steps-up but deserves respect after most recent win from the 10-hole in 152.2 and went to the half in 54.4. Dube takes a spin, he knows this 4-year-old and has won with him before.

Race 8

3-Trump Nation (3-1)-Raced big versus better last week and gets a good post to take control early on. Burke trainee has been in the money in 12 of 20 starts in East Rutherford with 6 wins.
5-Islandspecialmajor (7/2)-Dropped and popped from the 10-hole last week. Steps-up but fits with this group and could win right back in 3rd start off the bench.
8-Respect Our Flag (9/2)-Form has been dull but takes a good drop-in class. Has won 4 of 17 here and this might be the time for Jenn B trainee to wake-up.

Race 9

2-U S Captain (9/2)-Finished behind the 6 and 4 last week but is in a spot to get a smoother journey this time. Should race near the top of the stack and has been in the money 10 times in 16 starts at the Big M and has notched 5 wins.
3-Odds On Lauderdale (5-1)-Makes 1st start since 1/4 but had a couple of recent qualifiers and the last one was extra sharp. Using and expecting to be dialed on high right out of the box. Likes the Big M has been in the money in 15 of 25 starts with 8 wins.
5-Harambe Deo (12-1)-Won at this class on 9/12, then faced better and also drew outside in last 2 tries. Needs a trip, this is the spot to get one and fits at this class.
6-Highalator (5/2)-Beat a few from this crew in last and will try for 3rd straight tonight. Tough to leave out after winning from the 10-hole. There is nothing new to expect, except may get the top a little easier this time.

0.50 Early Pick 4

3,6,8/1,7/3,5,8/2,3,5,6
Total Bet=$36

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 07:29 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/03/20

October 3, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, October 3, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Goodtingscomeinpink; 7-Lavender

Forecast: Lavender makes her first start since joining the P. Miller barn and makes an equally pivotal jockey change to F. Prat, so a significant degree of improvement may be expected from the Irish-bred filly in this starter’s allowance grass miler for fillies and mares. She has a prior win over the course and a dangerous closing kick, so with good racing luck she’s the likely favorite and one to beat. Goodtingscomeinpink, in the frame in all five of her outings over the local lawn, projects to draft into an ideal ground-saving, stalking trip and have dead aim from the head of the lane to the wire. We’ll try to get by using just these two in our rolling exotics with a very slight edge on top to Lavender.
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RACE 2: Post: 12:59 PT Grade: B-
Single: 4-Madam Barbarian

Forecast: Madam Barbarian, first off the claim for R. Hess, Jr. and dropping from $20,000 to $16,000 (modest stats for this barn with this angle), is listed at 9/5 on the morning line in this five-runner race that offers little wagering value. The seven-year-old mare remarkably will be making her 73rd career start while seeking her 13th lifetime victory, and at this extended sprint trip she should be able to settle early and produce the last run, assuming she has at least one good one left. Her only prior outing over the Santa Anita main track resulted in a nice win against a slightly softer group during the spring meeting. We’re not sure why regular rider F. Prat isn’t aboard, though J. J. Hernandez certainly is more than capable of doing the job. You can use her as a rolling exotic single or simply pass the race.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:30 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Sedamar; 4-Cordiality

Forecast: The restricted Swingtime S. over a mile on grass for fillies and mares drew a field of six with two apparent main contenders. Cordiality does her best work on the front end and projects to be the controlling speed over a turf course that she’s clearly fond of (four career wins). Though she was tad disappointing when fourth in the Solana Beach S. at Del Mar last time out, the T. Yakteen-trained mare should be capable of returning to winning form under these conditions, though Sedamar, who was nosed out in the same race Cordiality exits and also finished ahead of her main rival when second in the Fran’s Valentine S. here in June, has legitimate credentials as well. They’re really tough to separate, so while we’ll give Cordiality a very slight edge on top, both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:10 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Rain Diva; 3-Saints Paynter

Forecast: This uninspiring five-runner restricted (nw-2) $25,000 claiming sprint for fillies and mares probably should be left alone but rolling exotic players can consider at least doubling the race, with a slight preference on top to Saints Paynter. She has an edge on pure numbers, is dropping into a seller for the first time, adding blinkers, and projects to be comfortably placed on or near the lead. Rain Diva also should be close up throughout from her rail draw and is a perfect one-for-one over the Santa Anita main track, having won her maiden last spring in gate-to-wire fashion by almost seven lengths. You may feel the need to add the 9/5 morning line favorite, Malibu Cat, nicely drawn outside and retaining F. Prat, but at that price her lackluster recent form makes her a play-against on our ticket.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:55 PT Grade: B
Single: 3-Octopus

Forecast: Octopus, first off the claim for D. Pederson, returns for the same $20,000 tag, shortens up a half-furlong and catches a field that should allow him to be the controlling speed in this restricted sprint for older horses. Second at this level while earning a career top speed figure in his most recent outing at Del Mar, the lightly-raced 3-year-old switches to the barn’s “go-to” rider T. Pereira and seems like a reasonable gamble as the 2-1 morning line favorite. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Rustic Canyon; 6-Sea of Liberty; 7-Johnny Podres

Forecast: Here’s a good gambling race that offers a number of contenders in a one mile turf affair for state-bred first-level allowance horses. Johnny Podres, with two recent sprint preps following a six month layoff, stretches out to his preferred trip and seems primed for a significant step forward move after earning a career top figure when third in a quick turf dash at Del Mar last month. A good runner-up in his only prior start over this course and distance last winter, the son of Grazen shows a healthy recent work pattern, retains J. J. Hernandez, and with a bit of help up front should be able to produce a winning late kick from off the pace. Sea of Liberty, fifth in a similar spot last month while encountering traffic trouble at a critical stage in the final furlong, can be a major contender with clear sailing today and always has run well over the Santa Anita grass course, hitting the board in all six starts while winning twice. The Boisterous gelding does his best running when relatively close to the pace and should be able to gain a favorable early position based on the projected race flow. Bay area shipper Rustic Canyon doesn’t win very often (2-for-28) but usually gets at least a piece of it and at 6-1 on the morning line may be worth including on a ticket or two as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Nasreddine; 6-Namesake; 7-Laurel River

Forecast: Maiden juveniles sprint five and one-half furlongs in the first leg of the late Pick-4, with three promising first-time starters, including a pair from B. Baffert’s barn, likely to receive the bulk of the play. Namesake, a son of Bernardini, probably won’t show his best stuff until tried over a longer distance, but he’s done everything nicely in the morning and acts like a decent sort of prospect. Stable mate Laurel River, a son of Into Mischief, may be the quicker of the two and should be more than fit for a top effort first time out. Based on his “win early” breeding and a slightly quicker series of drills, the Juddmonte Farm homebred seems likely to go favored. Also worth using is the filly tackling the colts, Nasreddine, a $360,000 Saratoga yearling purchase from the M. McCarthy barn. Though this barn has a low percentage with first timers, the daughter of Nyquist appears to be fairly quick and lands F. Prat, so at 4-1 on the morning line she looks like a live item.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: A-
Single: 7-Mo Forza

Forecast: Mo Forza looked spectacular in his recent comeback when easily winning the Del Mar Mile H.-G2 by more than four lengths and earning a career top speed figure without really being knocked about. A three-time winner over the Santa Anita turf course, the P. Miller-trained colt shows a couple of easy drills at San Luis Rey Downs since that race to tick him over. The son of Uncle Mo is listed as the 8/5 morning line favorite but seems certain to lower than that while taking another step on his way to the Breeders’ Cup Mile-G1. We’ll make him a strong win play and rolling exotic single.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 4-Next Revolt; 5-Bam Bam Again

Forecast: Bam Bam Again is lightly-raced and has steadily improved since being dropped to a realistic class level. The son of Awesome Again was more than four lengths clear of the rest in a similar restricted (nw-2) $16,000 main track miler at Del Mar last month and sports a significant bullet workout (6f, 1:12.3h, fastest of eight) since that race to have him on edge. Additionally, the S. Miyadi-trained colt earned a career top speed figure in his first start since being claimed and a repeat of his last start should be good enough to beat this field. Next Revolt, claimed by T. Yakteen when a disappointing fourth as the favorite in the same race Bam Bam Again exits, has a right to step forward for his new connections and attracts F. Prat, who’ll probably give him the patient ride he prefers. Both should be used in rolling exotic play with Bam Bam Again receiving top billing.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:10 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Alice Marble; 6-Legalita; 8-With Open Eyes

Forecast: After three consecutive outings routing on grass, With Open Eyes shortens back to a sprint and her debut race around one turn at Pleasanton (a closing second) indicates she may be most comfortable as a late-running sprinter. Drawn comfortably outside for the high percentage J. Wong barn, the daughter of Tiznow may be capable of tagging the speed. Legalita has been burning up the track in the a.m. while preparing for her debut for a barn that has excellent stats with first-time starters. She’s plenty fit and looks extremely live. Alice Marble needs to leave with her field, something she has failed to do in her first two starts. She’ll be running on late and probably is better than her modest speed figures give her credit for. We’ll use all three in our Golden Hour Pick-4 while giving a slight edge on top to With Open Eyes.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 1-Avisse; 6-Pizzazz; 10-Quattroelle

Forecast: The nightcap is a maiden special weight turf miler for juvenile fillies that requires a bit of a spread in rolling exotic play. Irish invader Quattroelle makes her U. S. debut after displaying good ability in her debut overseas in August and should fit very well against this group despite drawing an unfavorable outside post. Third of 18 at 66-1 when by less than a length despite some traffic trouble close home at Leopardstown, she arrives off the plane fit and ready and shows three easy local breezes that should allow for quick acclimation. Pizzazz had a nice introduction to racing when a willing runner-up in a grass sprint at Del Mar in late August, shows three nice workouts since raced, and stretches out to a distance she’s bred to handle. M. Smith stays aboard and should have this daughter of War Front within striking range throughout. Avisse is bred to run long on the lawn, lands the rail, and stretches out after a reasonably decent third place effort behind the top filly Princess Noor in a dirt sprint at Del Mar. You’d have to expect her to display good early speed from her rail draw, so at 6-1 on the morning line we’ll toss her in as well.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 9: Post 5:40 PT Grade: B
Use: 3-Songofthedesert; 9-Lotsa Pepper

Forecast: Songofthedesert seems to have found her niche as turf sprinter and after two excellent outings over the local lawn the J. Wong-trained mare can regain her winning form after settling for second as the favorite in a similar affair in late August. She earned a career top speed figure in defeat and should be capable of another forward move today. Lotsa Pepper faces winners today after graduating at first asking over this turf course at this abbreviated sprint trip two weeks ago. She’ll pop and go from her outside draw and if she can get over and establish a clear lead the daughter of Peppered Cat may be tough to catch right back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 07:31 AM

Jeff Siegel's Pimlico Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/3/20

October 3, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Pimlico Analysis & Wagering Strategies
Saturday, October 3, 2020
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 11:00 ET Grade: B+
Use: 2-Golden Voice; 4-Domain Expertise

Forecast: Domain Expertise displayed enough promise in her debut in a maiden race at Saratoga last month to rate top billing in this listed stakes over a middle distance on turf for juvenile fillies. Beaten a half-length while more than three clear of the rest and earning a nice speed figure in that race, the daughter of Kitten’s Joy foregoes what would have been easy pickings in a maiden affair to seek black type in what we view as a show of confidence by trainer C. Brown. In a field without much known speed she could find herself on or near the lead throughout. Golden Voice graduated in good style at Kentucky Downs last month while continuing her improving pattern, and with another forward move could make a serious run for a repeat score. While the bulk of our action will go to our top pick, ‘Voice might be worth consideration as a back-up or saver on your rolling exotic ticket.
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RACE 2: Post: 11:35 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Juliet Foxtrot; 3-She’sonthewarpath

Forecast: Juliet Foxtrot, exiting seven consecutive graded stakes races (three of them Grade 1’s), receives much appreciated class relief today in this year’s edition of the Gallorette S.-G3. Consistently fast on numbers and with the kind of tactical speed that ensures an ideal pace-prompting, ground-saving trip from her favorable inside draw, the B. Cox-trained English bred mare is legitimately priced at 7/5 on the morning line as the sure-fire favorite one to beat. Small ticket players should give her strong consideration as a potential rolling exotic single. She’sonthewarpath, a genuine and versatile middle distance specialist with good tactical speed and a winning spirit, has been performing consistently well in listed stakes races this year. Fresh from earning a career top speed figure when runner-up over soft ground at Ellis Park, the daughter of Declaration of War switches to G. Saez and is worth consideration on a few backup tickets in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 12:10 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Chalon; 4-Liza Star; 6-Bronx Beauty

Forecast: Chalon ran remarkably well after stumbling badly at the start in the Alma North Stakes at Laurel Park last month, rallying as best she could to win up second while probably best. With a clean start from the rail, the multiple graded stakes winner – first or second in 17 of 22 career outings - should outclass the field in this listed sprint stakes for fillies and mares. Liza Star is a win machine (11 for 33 overall) and after finishing third in good company in her last pair may be ready to get back to the winner’s circle. The veteran mare is solid in the speed figure department, thoroughly genuine and consistent, and picks up F. Geroux, who should have the daughter of Cool Coal Man in an ideal pace-prompting position. Also worth some consideration in rolling exotic play is Bronx Beauty, an authoritative sprint stakes winner at Monmouth Park last month and herself successful in 10 of 22 career races. She’ll need to step it up in the speed figure department but with some help up front could make some noise from off the pace in the final furlong.
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RACE 4: Post: 12:46 ET Grade: B+
Use: 3-Caravel; 5-Evil Lyn; 9-Princess Grace

Forecast: Here’s a deep and difficult event for 3-year-old fillies, the listed Skipat Stakes. Caravel is unbeaten in three starts when facing considerably softer rivals at Penn National and Presque Isle Downs but she’s a fit on speed figures, potentially the controlling speed (though she certainly doesn’t need the lead to win) and has a pedigree that suggests she’ll have no difficulty handling this two-turn mile trip. Drawn comfortably inside while picking up P. Lopez, the E. Merryman-trained daughter of Mizzen Mast is listed at 12-1 on the morning line and offers good wagering value at or near that price. Evil Lyn has strong recent numbers, stretches out again to her preferred trip, and shows a bullet recent workout on the Churchill Downs training center (4f, :47b, fastest of 44). Though most comfortable on the lead, the daughter of Wicked Strong can settle in the second flight and produce a winning kick, so H. Karamanos can assess the pace flow and play it by ear. Princess Grace, perfect in two starts, most recently in a two-turn allowance race at Monmouth Park that produced a competitive figure, switches to J. Bravo and may be the most dangerous of the true closing types. She’s another that appears overlayed on the morning line (10-1) and is a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 1:22 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Mundaye Call

Forecast: Mundaye Call was below her best form when fading to fourth in the Eight Belles S.-G2 at Churchill Downs last month but she’s off the rail today, tackling easier, and projects to be a short price to regain her winning form in today’s renewal of the Miss Preakness S.-G3. She’s very likely the controlling speed, and a repeat her career-top performance at Ellis Park two races back when winning the Autobahn Oaks is more than good enough to beat this field. At 7/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she may be too short to play in the win pool but we can use her as a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 6: Post: 2:01 ET Grade: B-
Use: 2-Somelikeitbrown; 3-Hembree; 7-Factor This

Forecast: Somelikeitbrown failed to secure his coveted front-running trip when troubled and unplaced in the Turf Classic-G1 on Derby Day last month at Churchill Downs, so we’ll draw a line through the race and key off his sharp score in the Bernard Baruch H.-G2 at Saratoga in late July. The son of Big Brown shows a pair of strong recent triple-digit Beyer speed figures, lands a comfortable inside post, switches to P. Lopez, and should be on or near the lead throughout. At 5-1 on the morning, he’s worth strong consideration in the win pool and in your rolling exotics. Factor One is even money on the morning and certainly the one to beat, though in a competitive affair he may be an underlay at that number. Probably a front-running type but drawn outside the other speed, the B. Cox-trained horse certainly knows how to seal the deal (he’s won 11 of 33, so if he can negotiate a decent trip he’ll certainly be hard to contain. Hembree, first or second in 16 of 37 starts, may be the most dangerous of the deep closers, and if the pace comes up contested and/or faster than par this veteran son of Proud Citizen could be a major player from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 7: Post: 2:42 ET Grade: B+
Use: 1-Admiral Lynch; 5-Landeskog

Forecast: Landeskog won his comeback at Ellis Park in August in excellent style while mostly on cruise control throughout and with a forward move today the Munnings gelding could be hard to beat in the year’s renewal of the De Francis Memorial Dash S.-G2. The lightly-raced 4-year-old shows a steady, healthy recent series of drills for B. Cox and his best effort, which to this point was his highly-rated runner-up effort last year in the Gallant Bob S.-G2 at Parx, would most likely be good enough to win. Admiral Lynch earned a career top speed figure in a highly impressive allowance win at Saratoga in late July and has trained sharply in the interim. This is a tougher spot and the Super Saver colt doesn’t have a history of producing back-to-back wins but with a sharp break from the rail he’ll have every chance. Both should be included in rolling exotic play with preference on top to Landeskog.
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RACE 8: Post: 3:22 ET Grade: B-
Use: 1-Proud Mission; 3-Wootton Asset; 6-Arrest Me Red

Forecast: The Laurel Futurity is a highly contentious affair requiring a significant spread in rolling exotic play. We’ll go three deep and hope to get a decent price home. Arrest Me Red appeared a bit green when winning his debut sprinting on grass at Laurel Park while displaying plenty of ability and potential, and while this is a considerably tougher spot the son of Pioneerof the Nile seems certain to improve with distance and experience. Three nice drills since that late August victory are good to see, so let’s try the A. Delacour-trained homebred on top at 6-1 on the morning line. Trainer G. Motion is represented by two legitimate contenders. European import Wooton Asset makes his first start off the plane following a fifth place finish in a listed stakes at Deauville. A two-time winner in the provinces in the spring, the French-bred colt arrives plenty fit and should be quite competitive against this group. Pivotal Mission is a maiden with ability, having just finished second in the Juvenile S. at Kentucky Downs last month. He’ll add blinkers today, projects to enjoy a ground-saving trip from his rail post and is a fit on figures.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:02 ET Grade: B
Use: 9-Monday Morning QB; 10-Don Juan Kitten; 11-Buy Land and See

Forecast: In his first start since February, Monday Morning QB finished an excellent second to unbeaten Happy Server in the nine furlong Federico Tesio S. while nine lengths clear of the rest in a sharp effort that produced a career top speed figure. He’s bred to improve a ton on grass (Imagining), shortens to a mile, and has a bullet recent workout at Parx (4f, :47.3h, fastest of 20) to indicate he’s ready to step forward again in a big way. The R. Reid, Jr.-trained colt offers a good gamble at 8-1 on the morning line. Don Juan Kitten is a proven stakes performer and appears ready for top effort. He was nailed close home over a soft course that he may not have cared for in the Saranac S.-G3 at Saratoga in late August but his winning form before that charts very well with this group. Buy Land and See stretches out again after finishing with interest to be third in in a fast Saratoga turf sprint last time out and could be at his best if held up early and allowed to run late. He’s another offering nice wagering value at or near his morning line of 8-1.
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RACE 10: Post: 4:41 ET Grade: X
Single: 5-Bonny South

Forecast: Bonny South is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite in this year’s Black-Eyed Susan S.-G2 and may even go shorter as the obvious top pick and logical rolling exotic single following her outstanding runner-up effort behind Swiss Skydiver in the Alabama S,-G1 at Saratoga. She earned a career top speed figure in that race, one that towers over today’s competition, and with seven weeks off to recover from a hard, taxing effort and a good recent series of workouts the daughter of Munnings seems set to regain her winning form in this prestigious nine-furlong main track event for sophomore fillies.
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RACE 11: Post: 5:36 ET Grade: X
Use: 3-Art Collector; 9-Authentic

Forecast: Authentic won the Kentucky Derby-G1 virtually gate-to-wire and similar front-running tactics are sure to be employed again in a race that could have slightly more pace pressure than the race in Louisville. Drawn comfortably outside, the son of Into Mischief has the option of stalking and pouncing if he can’t quite get over but we suspect that with a decent break he’ll be anywhere he wants to be entering the clubhouse. From there, it’s just a matter of the B. Baffert-trained colt reproducing his best form, and with five wins and a second in six career starts he’s proven to be genuine, consistent, dependable, and fast on figures. Art Collector has crossed the wire first in each of his last five starts but was forced to miss the Derby due to a bruised hoof. Since then, the son of Bernardini has trained in spectacular fashion – better than ever it could be argued – and should draft into an ideal stalking position and have every chance from the quarter pole home. Quite frankly, we’ll be surprised if the winner isn’t one of these two, and while we’re prefer Authentic on top both should be include in the rolling exotics.
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RACE 12: Post: 6:23 ET Grade: X
Use: Pass/No Play

Forecast: The final race on the program is carded for Arabian horses. We will pass the race.

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**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 08:04 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Belmont Park - Race #6

#3 Public Sector	Sharp debut winner for Brown catches a field there for the taking on the rise, flashed a huge closing kick at the Spa, and should only improve off that run; a star is born.
#7 Step Dancer	NYB really impressed winning on debut for Tagg at Sar, who rarely cranks them, and while this is a big step up, he'll offer a price to find out; can spice up your exotics.
#4 American Monarch	The more logical EX partner was a decent 4th in the G1 at Kee, and has an experience edge on the top pair too, though he may not have their upside anymore; in the mix.
Race Summary	You won't get rich on the 3 but that 5-2 ML seems like plenty of value on a runner who hasn't come close to his ceiling, so make an aggressive win or place bet at 9-5 or better, while getting some built-in value by singling him to kick off the late Pk5, as that's not a move the betting public likes to endorse, which means you can really get some leverage moving forward.

Belmont Park - Race #7

#7 Highland Sky	Longshot didn't disgrace himself in the Spa G2, should like the added ground, and gives the impression he's coming up to a lifetime-best; bombs away.
#4 Rockemperor	ML favorite will like the longer trip, as 9Fs at CD is way too short, though his margin for error is a slim one and he'll be overbet too; still, looms plenty scary.
#3 Channel Maker	Logical contender is the one to beat on soft ground, but on a firmer course he comes back to the pack a bit, and that's what he'll get here; trying to beat.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 7, and it needs to be, as he's behind most here, but his last was a big step up, and he's always hinted he could win one of these, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, as a win would go a long way in blowing up both sequences.

Belmont Park - Race #9

#8 Moon Over Miami	Improving sort for Mott stretched out and won a pricey stakes at KD, so the distance here won't be a concern, and he fits with the best, and will be a much better price too; look out.
#4 Domestic Spending	The chalk and horse to beat stepped up and won the Sar Derby, and this trip should be perfect, but he's no faster than the rest, and will be a much shorter price too; underlaid favorite.
#2 Gofu	Stretch runner just missed to the 4 last time, and he was flying late, so the added ground should help him too, though his lack of positional speed won't help; may run out of room again.
Race Summary	That 6-1 ML on the pick seems very fair, as he's never been better, and, as good as the 2 and 4 are, they are just as fast on figures as he is, so play him in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, since he could fall through the wagering cracks, even though he gives every impression he's firing another huge shot right back.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 08:05 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Pimlico - Race #4

#9 Princess Grace	Price player has done nothing wrong in a couple of wins so far, and she should be able to settle behind a decent pace with a handful of chasing players ahead of her, too.
#10 Shimmering	Euro import gets Lasix for the American debut out of the Motion barn, and although European turf racing hasn't suited her very well, she may like the conditions here a bit better.
#11 Lucky Jingle	Tough spot off the layoff, but she's a reliable finisher in a spot where the pace could get messy. Wouldn't put it past her to settle and outkick these. Chance.
Race Summary	The Hilltop is always one of my favorite races of the year, and this is a competitive renewal. Princess Grace can get the right kind of trip behind a solid set of splits, but she rates well enough to avoid getting caught up in it.

Pimlico - Race #10

#5 Bonny South	Won't offer any price out of the Cox barn, but she has been in with far better than what she's going to find in this spot. The clear one to beat and a logical single.
#3 So Darn Hot	Took a step back going long in the slop last out, and she's worth a look while getting a class test today. She's capable of something better than that last one.
#11 Perfect Alibi	Blinkers go on for this one, but she has not had a particularly solid set of recent races. She can land a share of this if she can get back to her 2019 form, but she simply has not progressed yet as a 3yo.
Race Summary	Bonny South drops out of a couple of Grade I efforts behind Speech and Swiss Skydiver, and that gives her an awfully big class edge on the rest of these. If she runs her race, she's probably the right one.

Pimlico - Race #11

#3 Art Collector	Think he's the real deal, and he's quick enough to sit close early but doesn't have to get sucked into the splits. Lots to like.
#9 Authentic	I didn't dislike his Haskell as much as most people, but he still surprised me in the Derby by getting that 10f trip. He has a bit of pace company today that could complicate his trip, but he deserves respect right back.
#7 Ny Traffic	Couldn't stay in the Derby, but he can sit close early and while rating just a touch off the splits, and if he can rebound, he's good enough for a piece.
Race Summary	Art Collector missed the Derby, but he gets a shot at the winner here in the Preakness. His last two efforts were sensational, but the waters get much deeper this time around.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 08:06 AM

Frank Carulli's Daily Picks

Meadowlands - Race #1

#4 SPICEBOMB	Fast pace took its toll two back, class drops after post 8 assignment last week.
#5 JUXLIVINMYDREAM	Should lead for as far as he goes at big price from better post.
#1 MORE THE BETTER	Picked up cover in third quarter, empty in stretch, drops again.
Race Summary	Shooting for some longshots in pace-less race with a vulnerable favorite. Spicebomb back-pedal to a demanding pace two back, then rallied mildly at Harrah’s Philadelphia from post 8 last week. He should be in a prime striking spot to make an upset bid.

Woodbine-Mohawk Park - Race #1

#3 GIAS SURREAL	Led, fought back against odds-on fave before 32-1 shot passed by.
#6 BETTER BE DONNA	Shuffled to last on turn two back, discount latest from poor post.
#7 BORN A DRAGON	Had a win and two seconds while ascending the class ranks recently.
Race Summary	Gias Surreal worked to clear in a fast opening quarter, braced for a stretch challenge by the 3-to-5 favorite and fought gamely to finish third. She joins a parade of class droppers, but she knows how to win and offers good betting value.

Northfield Park - Race #3

#8 SHE’S IN FOR LIFE	Chased fave, held third at notch above, looms forward factor throughout.
#2 MY HEARTS ROCKIN	Decent recovery from early break but burned serious money.
#5 AUDREY ANNA	Changed tactics on class drop, led long way before tiring.
Race Summary	She’s In For Life was pocketed behind the winning favorite through solid fractions and did well to hold third at a higher level. She starts outside but has enough zip to get position. Play 8-2 and 8-5 exactas.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-03-2020, 08:07 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #5

#5 Shendam	Was claimed last time by Arriegada and had been moving up the class ladder prior to that, including an appearance in a stakes race; getting down to a level at which he should be effective.
#7 Keep Quiet	Rallied strongly and just missed at GP last time out and usually rallies on the turf; capable of a big effort.
#2 Can't Trump Kitten	Won his only appearance at GP West, cruising to a widening victory; has finished with interest lately and is a late threat here.
Race Summary	Shendam was claimed for this price last time out when he ran third; can win if he runs back to that.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#6 Bridologist	This is form vs. class as Bridologist goes for his third straight win. He hasn't run for the same price as the others but has been impressive in his last two.
#2 Who's in Charge	Drops to a bargain price after running for four times that at Belmont; off since June.
#1 Bahamian Prince	Was second for $25,000 and is price is cut in half. It's a very suspicious drop, as he was claimed for the $25K four races back and now runs for half of that.
Race Summary	Bridologist has the speed to be in the mix from the start, has had the desire to turn back challengers out front and has a good chance to keep his winning streak.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #9

#1 Got Glee	Has excellent speed, can be on the lead or very close to his and can benefit from taking the shortest way home in this grass sprint.
#7 Dahlonega	Won by seven lengths last out in a race that came off the turf; capable of being in the mix from the start.
#8 Daddy's Joy	Led gate to wire against state-bred maidens at GP; takes a step up but might be good enough.
Race Summary	Got Glee has speed and the willingness to fight when challenged; can get the best trip and looms as the one to beat.