Sunday 10/4/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

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JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS VS. CINCINNATI BENGALS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

CIN Bengals Win -3.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 49.0 Game Totals
-115

***Point Spread Pick
Two teams not expected to do much in 2020 will face-off here as the Cincinnati Bengals host the Jacksonville Jaguars. Jacksonville started the year off with a bang with a big upset victory over the Colts, but they’ve since come back down to earth with back to back losses. I think they make it three in a row here. Cincy looked solid this past week, taking the Eagles to overtime and earning a tie on the road. Now they’re coming back home to play the weakest team they’ll have faced all year. The Bengals’ biggest issue this season has been protecting Joe Burrow, but fortunately that shouldn’t be a problem here. That’s because Jacksonville has had one of the league’s weakest pass-rushes so far, as they rank second to last in the NFL with only three total sacks. When Burrow has had time to throw he’s looked great, and he should have his best game yet here. Gardner Minshew and the Jags had a little magic early on, but that has clearly run out. Jacksonville just got blown out by the lowly Dolphins, and I’m laying the field goal with Cincy.


*Game Totals Pick
The over also makes some sense here. Jacksonville has one of the worst defenses in the league, and they’ve given up 64 points over their last two games to the Dolphins and Titans. Cincinnati’s defense has been atrocious as well, and I like what new Jags offensive coordinator Jay Gruden has been doing with Minshew. Jacksonville was able to put up 27 points on the Colts, who have the NFL’s top defense through three weeks. Cincy quietly has a ton of skill position talent with Joe Mixon, A.J. Green, Tyler Boyd, and Tee Higgins all in tow, and they should breakout in this spot against a Jaguars team with a very young secondary. Neither side has anything to lose, so I expect them both to be playing fast and loose here.

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SEATTLE SEAHAWKS VS. MIAMI DOLPHINS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

SEA Seahawks Win -6.5 Point Spread
-110

Under 54.5 Game Totals
-110

**Point Spread Pick
The unbeaten Seattle Seahawks make the long trip to Florida to take on the Miami Dolphins in Week 4 of the NFL regular season, and the visitors look set to improve to 4-0. The Seahawks have been box office television this year with quarterback Russell Wilson having already thrown 14 touchdowns through three games. Seattle have put at least 35 points on the board each week, and given Miami’s depleted secondary it seems inevitable that that trend continues. It just depends whether the Dolphins can keep pace.

Ryan Fitzpatrick had just two incompletions last week as the Fins put 31 points on the board, but that came against a poor Jacksonville team. Admittedly the Seahawks have allowed the fifth-most passing yards this season, but seems almost inevitable when your first three games are against Atlanta, New England and Dallas. What is impressive is that they have allowed the second-fewest rushing yards, with Todd Gurley, Cam Newton and Ezekiel Elliott all failing to top 56 yards on the run.

Seattle are 3-0 ATS this season, and it’s tough to see Miami keeping this one within a touchdown.


*Game Totals Pick
We know how hot the Seattle offense is right now, and we know how hot Russell Wilson is right now. The Seahawks will put points on the board against Miami. But will the Dolphins?

As mentioned already, the Seattle defense has been red-hot when it comes to run defense, and you can’t expect Myles Gaskin to be the guy to buck that trend. Gaskin recorded the most rushing yards of any Dolphins player last week when he posted 66 yards, but he needed 22 attempts to do it. If Miami is going to score they’re going to have to air it out and given they rank 27th in passing yards that is no guarantee. They’ve put 59 points on the board in their last two games, but it’s asking a lot to continue that trend. This looks a very high line and it’s worth taking advantage. Take the under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NEW YORK GIANTS VS. LOS ANGELES RAMS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

LA Rams Win -12.5 Point Spread
-110

Over 48.0 Game Totals
-110

**Point Spread Pick
The Los Angeles Rams will host the rapidly spiraling New York Giants here. This spread might seem large, and it is, but you have to lay it here. New York just played a 49ers team that was missing virtually half their squad including their starting quarterback, and they got blown out by 27. That game was at home, and now they have to travel across the country. They haven’t been able to protect Daniel Jones no matter who they’re playing, so I don’t see how they’ll slow down Aaron Donald here. The Rams have looked great so far, with their only loss coming this past week at the last second on the road against a very good Bills team. Sean McVay has his mojo back, and Jared Goff has looked the best I can recall seeing him. New York isn’t just without Saquon Barkley, they’re also without top receiver Sterling Shepard. They’ve got nothing going on either side of he ball, so I don’t think they’re going to be able to keep this one close.


**Game Totals Pick
The Rams are going to be able to score at will, so the over makes some sense here too. The Giants just let backup quarterback Nick Mullens put up 36 points, and the Rams might top that. Los Angeles has scored 69 points over their last two games, and those were against defenses much better than this New York one. The Rams have Donald and Jalen Ramsey, but not a ton else on defense, so New York will be able to move the ball at least somewhat. The Rams will be up big early on, so the Giants will have to abandon the run and start chucking the ball. There should be a lot of garbage time points scored in this one.

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BUFFALO BILLS VS. LAS VEGAS RAIDERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

BUF Bills Win -3.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 52.5 Game Totals
-110

**Point Spread Pick
The red hot Buffalo Bills will travel to the West Coast to take on the Las Vegas Raiders here. Vegas pulled off an upset in their home opener against the Saints, but I think that’s mostly because the Saints just aren’t as good as we all thought they were. The Raiders promptly got smacked down by the Patriots last week, and Derek Carr went back to being Derek Carr. It can no longer be questioned, Josh Allen has clearly taken a massive leap forward. Buffalo just beat a very good Rams team, and Allen should have no problem carving up this struggling Raiders defense. With Bryan Edwards, Henry Ruggs, and Tyrell Williams all sidelined, the Raiders are now without each of their top three receivers entering the year. Vegas gave up 250 yards rushing and 6.6 yards per carry to New England last week, so Devin Singletary should have a lot of success here as well. Lay the points with Buffalo.


**Game Totals Pick
I also like the over in this spot, as I have no confidence in either defense. Vegas has given up 90 points through three weeks, and at least 24 in all three games. They’ve been playing exclusively in shootouts, even against weak teams like the Panthers. There’s simply no way they can slow down this new-look Bills offense, and they don’t have anyone in their secondary who can stick with Stefon Diggs. Buffalo sometimes has trouble covering tight ends, so Vegas’ Darren Waller could be in for another big game here. Allen has been electric but he still has a tendency to commit head-scratching turnovers, which could set up some short fields. Buffalo offensive coordinator Brian Daboll has been very aggressive so far, and he has to be licking his chops for this matchup.

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NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS VS. KANSAS CITY CHIEFS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

NE Patriots Win +7.0 Point Spread
-120

Over 53.0 Game Totals
-110

**Point Spread Pick
Perhaps the most anticipated matchup of the Week 4 slate here as the Kansas City Chiefs host the New England Patriots. Cam Newton vs. Patrick Mahomes, what more can we ask for as football fans? Mahomes and the Chiefs looked amazing last week as they beatdown Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, which caused this line to get a bit inflated. With the way Newton has looked as a Patriot, I love the opportunity to get a touchdown with him. It’s a short week for Kansas City after they played on Monday Night Football, so I don’t think Andy Reid’s offense will have as many creative new wrinkles as usual. The only game New England has lost was on the road against a very good Seahawks team, and that was by only five points. Everybody seems to have forgotten that right before the Ravens game, the Chiefs got taken to overtime by the Chargers and Justin Herbert in his first career start. They certainly aren’t unbeatable, and this game should come down to the wire. Take the points.


**Game Totals Pick
I also like the over a lot here. New England’s offense has incredible upside with Newton under center, and they’ve scored 66 points over their last two games. Kansas City’s secondary has looked exploitable, as they got shredded for 311 yards. Cornerback Bashaud Breeland is still serving his suspension, which leaves the back half of their defense vulnerable. New England’s secondary certainly isn’t what it used to be, and the one time they faced a great quarterback they gave up 35 points and five touchdown passes to Russell Wilson. Mahomes just dropped 27 in the first half against Baltimore, and he’s pretty much matchup-proof at this point. The Pats tend to let Newton loose when they know it’s a game they might lose, and they won’t be holding anything back here.

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PHILADELPHIA EAGLES VS. SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS PREDICTIONS

PICKS

PHI Eagles Win +7.0 Point Spread
-110

Over 44.5 Game Totals
-110

**Point Spread Pick
The Philadelphia Eagles face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 4 of the NFL season with the visitors in big need of a W. Philly’s campaign has been woeful so far with double-digit defeats to Washington and the Rams before being held to a 23-23 tie with Cincinnati. Carson Wentz’s position as starting quarterback has come under great scrutiny with rookie Jalen Hurts waiting in the wings. However, there is reason to believe there is value in taking the Eagles with the points. Granted a tie with the worst team last year never looks great, but the Bengals have been competitive in each of their games this season and were unfortunate to lose to the Chargers in Week 1. Furthermore, for all of Wentz’s struggles, Miles Sanders has operated well out of the backfield with 95 rushing yards in each of his last two games.

It’s important to remember how depleted San Francisco is right now, with Jimmy Garoppolo, George Kittle, Raheem Mostert and Jordan Reed unlikely to feature, while Nick Bosa and Richard Sherman are on IR. The 49ers blew out the Giants last week, but that isn’t saying much, and they are likely to face a much stiffer task this time.

Wentz has a point to prove, and a great opportunity to make a statement against San Francisco’s depleted secondary. I’m backing them to keep this close.


**Game Totals Pick
There has been a points bonanza in the NFL thus far this season, with the over on the points total landing in nine of Sunday’s 14 games. With such a low line here, it is worth backing that trend to continue.

The 49ers have lost a lot of offensive weapons but have put 67 points on the board in their last two games, albeit against two of the worst teams in the league. However, Philadelphia has shipped an average of 29 points per game so far, and even with all of San Francisco’s absences, the Eagles are unlikely to completely contain their offense.

As mentioned above, this Eagles attack hasn’t necessarily been terrible and it’s only a matter of time before things start falling their way. Facing the 49ers’ injury-ravaged defense is the perfect opportunity for them to move the chains and get some scores on the board. Take the over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/4/20

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October 4, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 12:30 PT Grade: B
Use: 7-Jamming Eddy; 9-Torosay

Forecast: The Sunday opener is a better-than par turf dash for first-level allowance runners. Jamming Eddy is winless in seven lifetime outings over the local lawn but each of those races were at a mile or farther. Based on his most recent outing – a sharp state-bred sprinting win on grass at Del Mar – the son of Square Eddie clearly is most effective around one turn. Though he’s tackling open company today, the P. Miller-trained gelding has speed figures that should allow him to win right back, and with F. Prat staying aboard he’ll offer good wagering value at 3-1 on the morning line. Torosay, an excellent third in the Green Flash S.-G3 down south last time out, tackles an easier group today and should be on or near the lead from his outside draw. The Goldencents gelding broke his maiden over this course and distance last November and has consistently hit the board at this level in recent starts. We’ll use both in our rolling exotics and then have an extra ticket or two keying Jamming Eddy on top.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:05 PT Grade: B-
Use: 2-Foxborough; 3-Freerunning

Forecast: Freerunning and Foxborough, two-three finishers in a maiden $32,000 sprint at Del Mar in late August, hook up again, this time around two-turns in a main track miler. Freerunning is the quicker of two and seems likely to be the controlling speed, and while his pedigree doesn’t guarantee that he’ll be comfortable at the trip the son of Cinco Charlie should have every chance to gain control through soft splits and then hang on. Foxborough seems the more likely of the two to handle the extra ground based on running style and pedigree. However, he’s already had five starts and may have less improvement in him than Freerunning, who’s had just three. Either one can win – we’ll slightly prefer the quicker Freerunning on top – and we’ll include both in our rolling exotic play.
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RACE 3: Post: 1:40 PT Grade: C
Use: 1-Clubhouse Saint; 3-Big Moon; 5-Take Her Temp

Forecast: Big Moon probably is shorter on the morning line (8/5) than she deserves to be but the daughter of Mr. Big, slow on speed figures but apparently improving with experience, has so little to beat in this maiden $32,000 main track miler for juvenile fillies that she’s likely to be the public choice by default. She switches to F. Prat, is comfortably drawn, and should have every chance from a good second flight, stalking position. Clubhouse Saint finished third in her debut vs. maiden $50,000 foes but was never really in the race, clunking home third when beaten more than 11 lengths. The drop in class, the stretch out in trip, and the good rail draw should contribute to an improved performance, so in a modest affair you have to use her. Take Her Temp has the two-sprints-and-a-stretch out pattern we like but loses F. Prat, though underrated R. Gonzalez is more than capable if this daughter of Uncaptured is up to the task. Her closing though distant second place finish in her debut charts well with these but her most recent outing – sixth as the 6/5 favorite – doesn’t. In a weak affair, we’ll toss her in.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:15 PT Grade: B
Use: 5-Ebeko; 6-Big Fish

Forecast: Big Fish and Ebeko, one-two finishers in the highly-productive Del Mar Juvenile Turf last month, meet again under similar conditions in this year’s edition of the Zuma Beach S. and were expecting both to separate themselves from the pack. Big Fish, already a two-time grass winner with speed figures that have risen in each of his four career starts, was convincing in victory last time out in a race that produced the one-two finishers (Get Her Number, Rombauer) in the subsequent American Pharoah S.-G1). Like Big Fish, Ebeko finished with purpose but was far back early and then ran out of room in a promising U. S. debut. We’ll once again give Big Fish the edge on top but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 5: Post: 2:50 PT Grade: C+
Use: 3-Nolo Contesto; 5-Strongconstitution

Forecast: Nolo Contesto (7/5) and Strongconstitution (2-1) are the first two favorites on the morning line in this first-level allowance main track miler and we’ll be surprised if the race doesn’t fall to one or the other. Second and third, respectively, when they clashed under similar conditions at Del Mar last month, they’re solid in the speed figure department and coming up to this race with healthy patterns, so they’re hard to separate. Nolo Contesto is re-equipped with blinkers, switches to F. Prat, and has won over this track in past (beating Omaha Beach, no less) while Strongconstitution, a 3-year-old tackling older, has had just five career outings and probably has more upside than his chief rival. In a race that we’ll otherwise pass, both should be included in your rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:25 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Mount Pelliar; 5-Petruchio

Forecast: We’ll double the sixth race, a below average maiden-special-weight miler on grass for juveniles. Petruchio is a first-time gelding adding blinkers so there are at least a couple of reasons to believe he’ll step forward after two fairly decent third place educational runs sprinting on dirt at Del Mar. With F. Prat staying aboard for a barn that has solid stats with the stretch-out angle, the son of Into Mischief appears the one to beat, though based strictly on pedigree he’s no slam dunk to relish two-turns and turf (we just hope he will). Mount Pelliar came against slow fractions to finish a respectable fourth going long on the lawn in his debut at Del Mar and may be a bit more dependable than our top pick. The son of Declaration of War retains R. Gonzalez and will be doing his best work from the quarter pole home.
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RACE 7: Post: 3:55 PT Grade: B
Use: 4-Canadian Pride; 8-Mickelson

Forecast: Mickelson was making just his second career start (and his first in 15 months) when he finished a strong runner-up in a fast, highly-rated maiden special weight sprint at Del Mar four weeks ago and today gets an extra half-furlong to work with from a cozy outside draw. The B. Baffert-trained colt switches to A. Cedillo and should be able to settle in the second flight and then launch his bid when called upon. Canadian Pride earned a competitive figure in his first outing since February when a solid runner-up vs. maidens at this extended sprint trip at Del Mar in mid-August. The Creative Cause gelding shows a bullet five furlong drill (5f, :59 1/5, fastest of 61) nine days ago and appears primed and ready for a career top effort. These are the two we’ll be using in our rolling exotic with a very slight edge on top to Mickelson.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:25 PT Grade: B+
Use: 4-Consternation; 6-Madone

Forecast: Madone is unbeaten in two starts and her modest speed figures don’t do her justice. After a clever maiden win, the daughter of Vancouver was stuck in severe traffic much of the way before finding room late and accelerating impressively to capture the Juvenile Fillies Turf S. at Del Mar. A similar type of performance today will make her hard to beat once again. Consternation, runner-up in her debut in Ireland in late June, arrived in Southern California fit and ready and was a visually pleasing winner in her local bow at a mile on grass last month, displaying a good turn of foot at the head of the lane and then drawing clear with complete authority. Clearly, she’s the one Madone has to worry about the most. We’ll have tickets using both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 9: Post: 4:55 PT Grade: B+ (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Crossword

Forecast: Crossword, a $100,000 Timonium 2-year-old in training purchase last May, was quite impressive in the preview session, breezing a furlong in a sharp :10 1/5 while displaying quick action and a smooth, economical, athletic stride. He’s been training quite well at Los Alamitos for J. Sadler and should be plenty fit and ready to win at first asking in this abbreviated dash for a barn that has excellent stats with debut runners. At 4-1 on the morning line he’s a win play and rolling exotic single.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:10 PT Grade: B-
Use: 5-Lucas McCain; 6-I’m a Cool Dude; 7-Bradley’s Cowboy

Forecast: Although he exits a maiden $25,000 sprint and is facing (theoretically) tougher straight maiden types today, I’m a Cool Dude has the benefit of a good race over the track and seems likely to improve for a barn that has strong stats with this angle. The addition of blinkers shouldn’t hurt, so after finishing strongly but too late when earning a nice speed figure last month the son of Boat Trip gets top billing in an open race that also includes a pair of intriguing first-time starters. Lucas McCain shows a bullet :58 3/5 gate drill (fastest of 25) a couple of weeks ago before shipping up from Los Alamitos and must be considered a major player for the high percentage S. Miyadi outfit. Bradley’s Cowboy, from the J. Wong barn, tuned up with a sharp gate drill of his own (:48 flat, second fastest of 74) last week and is cozily drawn outside. All three should be include in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 10: Post: 5:25 PT Grade: B (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 2-Antithetical; 8-City Rage

Forecast: City Rage was nosed out in a similar starter allowance turf miler at Del Mar last time out and nothing much more will required to beat this field with F. Prat staying aboard. His only prior victory came over this course and distance so there should be no excuses today. Antithetical probably is worth including as a backup on your rolling exotic ticket. The S. Miyadi-trained gelding was a troubled dead-heat third in a hot, productive race last time out that produced a career top speed figure. He may be most effective if held up early and allowed to produce a late run and if ridden that way should have dead aim from the quarter pole to the wire.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:40 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-Kylemore; 4-Nowhere Man; 5-Mad At Money: 6-Baby Frankie

Forecast: This restricted $8,000 claiming miler looks completely wide open, so best advice is to use as many as you can afford. We’ll go four-deep and hope to get a decent price home. Kylemore drops to his lowest level ever for new trainer M. Lenzini and projects to enjoy a good ground-saving trip from his rail draw. A repeat of his race before last – third when beaten less than a length at Del Mar in an open $12,500 seller – is good enough to beat this field. Nowhere Man has won twice over the Tapeta surface and does his best work when on near the lead throughout. If not respected he can take this field a long way. Mad At Money is a deep closer that has been racing on grass of late but he’s won on this surface in the past and is dropping back to his claim level while being reunited with “win rider” I. Orozco. Baby Frankie won from a lesser $5,000 field last month with a pretty good speed figure and was claimed by J. Martin, who’s always been a high percentage conditioner with cheaper stock. The Super Saver gelding has a good stalking style and really won’t have to improve much to score right back.

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Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

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Belmont Park - Race #1

#1 Wasp	Pletcher firster drew the rail, which isn't ideal, but she sure doesn't meet much, and the fact she cost 350k as a 2yo says they liked her a lot; look out.
#7 Impazible Donna	The gal to beat was a strong 2nd off the long break last time and will be a real handful, but she could also regress off such a huge return; second-best.
#3 Calidad	Expected stalker tired going long on turf last time, but the cutback, return to dirt, and potential hot early pace can all help her chances; can get a piece.
Race Summary	Tab the tote on the 1, as you'd like to see her live and taking money for a potent barn, and if that's the case you can play her to win and place, though her real value comes in kicking off the early Pk5, as they will be all over the 7, which means a win by the pick might play a lit longer than the tote odds suggest.

Belmont Park - Race #7

#1 Lovestruck	Mott miss impressed in winning on debut at the Spa, which is noteworthy as this is not a barn that cranks them, so she may move forward off the big run, and this post is ideal too; look out.
#9 Editor At Large	Dangerous filly was all-out to hold on in her Spa debut for Brown, with a modest figure, but she's another who should move forward, so you have to expect she fires a big shot; major player.
#8 Plum Ali	ML favorite pulled clear late to win a KD stakes last time, so she has an experience edge on the top-2, but those gals have more upside, and a bit more tactical speed too; making her prove it.
Race Summary	That 7-2 ML seems mighty inviting on the pick, especially with the perfect post too, so play her to win and place, and get some added value by using her in the late Pk5, and to kick off the late Pk4 as well, since a win

Belmont Park - Race #9

#3 Backtohisroots	Lightly raced runner steps up off a big AOC win at the Spa, and while this is a tougher group, he's coming in the right way, meets no world beaters, and will be a price too; upset special.
#5 Archidust	The chalk has looked good winning a pair of Mth stakes of late, will be close throughout, and will get first run on the pick, but his margin for error here is a slim one; very scary, but no lock.
#1 Chewing Gum	Tricky read hasn't bridged the gap to stakes foes, though a two-turn Spa mile in a G1 isn't his level either, though his decisive lack of early speed isn't helping matters; runs out of room.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 3, who has a lot to like and might be meeting the right kind of crew too, so give him a look in all the slots, and especially the late Pk5/Pk4 as well, as he could fall through the wagering cracks, which means a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

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Mountaineer - Race #1

#2 All About Ready	Looks for a third score in a row while moving back to the turf, and he has had some success over the local footing in the past. Looks like the right one to me.
#7 Soul of Discretion	Has not been much in a few tries on the turf, but he has faced some better groups in recent starts and can flash pace from the gate.
#5 Aktabantay	He fired a good enough one in July to suggest he's not completely done, and the move back to a sprint might wake him up a bit.
Race Summary	All About Ready is in really good form and owns solid running lines on the local turf, giving him a right to be very tough with these. Not sure we get the 3/1 ML price, but it'd be plenty fair if we did.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#10 Trouble X Two	Price should be right as this guy cuts back, and he is still capable of producing some pretty sharp efforts from time to time. Bounces back here?
#9 Masked	Brings what is clearly the best recent form to this, but he's winless from six starts at this trip and will surely get bet on the drop while cutting back three quarters of a mile.
#2 My Brother Steve	Has done some decent work at times going short on the turf, but he'll need his very best to land an underneath share at a price.
Race Summary	Trouble X Two has been a router most of his career, but he has won at this trip before and might be better on the cutback.

Mountaineer - Race #7

#2 Rotten Scoundrel	Really nice effort when making short work of a local maiden group last out, and he's worth a look around two turns with the locals.
#5 Anytimeallthetime	Took a nice step forward when stretched around two turns, and he's not totally exposed after just two starts. No surprise to see him win right back.
#8 Lightning Jack	Romped with a cheap Finger Lakes bunch in his only career dirt start, and the addition of blinkers might keep him in the game a bit more early on here. Not out of it.
Race Summary	Rotten Scoundrel has been heading in the right direction and woke up in a big way trying the local strip for the first time. The Reed barn seems to have this one mostly locked down with the top choice and Anytimeallthetime.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

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Gulfstream Park West - Race #3

#2 Maries Melody	Has been outstanding with three wins in her last four and most recently was a gate-to-finish victress of the Miss Gracie; the one to catch.
#6 Zodiac Princess	Won her last three, including her latest at this level; probably in her strongest race but still has a good chance to be a tough customer from the beginning.
#8 Chiclet's Dream	Was competitive at Delaware, highlighted by a win in a starter allowance, and won two straight early in the year at Gulfstream.
Race Summary	Maries Melody didn't figure out the game until her 10th career start and has outstanding since then, with three wins in four starts in the past three months. Rates the class edge here.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#7 Worth Avenue	Dominated her last two and has run well for trainer Rose, who claimed her in May; can bide her tide and pounce when called upon.
#1 Tiz Enough	Finished strongly and broke her maiden at this distance last time; went in fast time and should be tough in her first vs. winners.
#2 Tara	Broke her maiden on her 12th start and lost by a nose in her first vs. winners; late threat.
Race Summary	Worth Avenue is the best she's been in years and a fast pace will set her up for a run; can get a third straight win.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#1 My Saratoga Star	Has been competitive vs. outstanding company and can get a good inside trip and can dig in vs. these.
#2 Fujairah	Was third in the Miss Gracie last time out and has tackled some strong competition; fits with this group.
#7 Starship Nala	Turns back in distance and gets back to the turf course; was second in a stakes race over this course last year.
Race Summary	My Saratoga Star has the speed to battle from the beginning and can get back to winning after two straight losses.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Paul Leiner

Two NFL Picks 10/4

Great day in College Football but the long shot ran out in the Preakness. Here's a couple for Sunday.

100* Texans -3.5
100* Over 54 Lions/Saints

[Can'tPickAWinner]

NFL(Bob Balfe)
1:00 PM EST
Rotation #258
Bengals -2.5 over Jaguars
Gardner Minshew is not a quality NFL player.* The only thing that keeps him a household name are his fun and game college frat like antics and it’s going to get real old fast for the Jags fan base.* This team was awful against the Dolphins last week and this week they have to go on the road with a first year offensive coordinator and a rookie running back and try to win on the road to the hungry Bengals and the #1 pick Joe Burrow.* Cincinnati is getting close to that first win and with the way the Jags played defense last week you have to think it’s coming.* This Bengals team is stacked on the offensive side of the ball and today I believe they get their breakout game.* Take the Bengals.