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In Week 1 -- when hundreds of thousands of Survivor players blew their entire season by picking the Colts, Eagles or 49ers -- Tierney rolled with the Ravens over the Browns. The result: Baltimore 38, Cleveland 6. In Week 2, Tierney advanced with the Steelers (over the Broncos), and in Week 3, he cruised with the Colts demolishing the Jets. In fact, Tierney warned readers to avoid Arizona in Week 3 and sure enough, the Cards were upset at home by the winless Lions.
For Week 4, we can tell you Tierney is not going with the surging Buccaneers, even though they're favored by more than a touchdown against the 1-2 Chargers.
Here's Tierney's Week 4 write-up for Survivor pools:
Faithful readers of this column might recall the installment in which the dilemma that survivor players confront in Week One was addressed.
Do you opt for a Super Bowl contender with a soft opponent likely to get you off to a winning start? Or do you save the heavyweight team for the future and, for your initial pick, dip into the group of less likely victors that carry more risk?
My philosophy is to play it safe. After all, nothing spoils the buoyant mood on opening weekend than elimination from the pool just as it starts. So I, along with many others, went with the mighty Ravens, which paid off when they mauled Cleveland.
Yet it is weeks such as this that prompt second-guessing. Baltimore is blessed with a matchup against Washington. The Football Team launched its generic-nickname era by downing still-winless Philadelphia but bowed by two touchdowns apiece on the next two Sundays.
Fortunately for those of us who already have fired our Ravens arrow, we have a fetching alternative.
The Los Angeles Rams return home after an extended East Coast trip on which they trounced the Eagles and staged the grandest comeback in franchise annals, only to lose in the closing seconds to the Bills. Their offense ranks third despite a languid first half in Buffalo. That they handed back the lead at the end, with help from a debatable pass interference call on fourth down that preceded the decisive TD, boosts the attractiveness of L.A., which will be driven to erase the sting of the setback.
Of course, nothing makes the Rams more alluring than the identity of their foe.
The New York Giants have been butt-ugly, with losses by an average of 13.7 points. The nadir was last Sunday, when they were pulverized at home by the 49ers, who were absent six starters with injuries from the week before.
A flood of stats could be unleashed here to reinforce L.A. as the proper pick. Let's sample just a few of the most damning ones.
The Giants are 31st in point differential (ahead of only their MetLife Stadium co-tenants), 30th in time of possession, 29th in takeaways and 32nd in third-down conversions offensively and defensively.
One more: They are last in yards per rush, a lowly status unlikely to improve with RB Saquon Barkley done for the season.
Even if the Ravens remain in your quiver, to borrow from the ancient Randy Newman song, I love L.A.
Sometimes, we survivalists hit the bulls-eye. Week Three was one of those occasions as Indianapolis drew remarkably heavy backing — 44 percent in pools tracked by the website Survivor Grid and 39 according to the site RunYourPool.
The Colts lived up to the overwhelming support, which included my pick. Their 32-point margin against the hapless New York Jets was the most ample on the schedule.
However, the next most endorsed squad took a fall. The bloom came off the desert rose with Arizona's defeat to Detroit. The formerly unbeaten Cardinals were the chosen ones in nearly 11 percent of pools.
Some pool players took a stab at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, neither of whom had been a ball of fire, but each triumphed handily.
Not so the fifth squad on the popularity totem pole. About eight percent of participants violated a cardinal rule and selected a team with a rookie quarterback making his second start. The L.A. Chargers helped clean out the pool with a loss to Carolina.
MINNESOTA -153
HOUSTON @ MINNESOTA | 9/30 | 1:08 PM EDT
10:17 AM
Houston is 0-12 as a +130-plus road underdog when it is not the first game of a series and it is off a game in which it allowed five-plus walks as long as it was not a +240-plus dog in that game. In each of their last three games in this spot, the Astros have scored only one run. The Twins are 10-0 off a home game in which they scored in at most two separate innings and it is not a series opener, and they are 13-0 at home off a game as -130-plus favorites in which they allowed five-plus walks. Minnesota breaks the long playoff losing streak behind starting pitcher Jose Berrios.
54-27 IN LAST 81 MLB ML PICKS | +1026
8-4 IN LAST 12 HOU ML PICKS | +219
2-1 IN LAST 3 MIN ML PICKS | +55
L.A. DODGERS -216
MILWAUKEE @ L.A. DODGERS | 9/30 | 10:08 PM EDT
10:14 AM
LA is 30-0 as a -200-plus home favorite before Game No. 95 when it won its starter’s last two starts (Walker Buehler) and scored at least two runs in his last start. With the Brewers 0-10 as +160-plus dogs when they are off a game as favorites and facing a team that has won its last two games, we are laying the price.
54-27 IN LAST 81 MLB ML PICKS | +1026
4-1 IN LAST 5 MIL ML PICKS | +247
SAN DIEGO -157
ST. LOUIS @ SAN DIEGO | 9/30 | 5:08 PM EDT
10:12 AM
San Diego is a good investment when it is doing well. The Padres are 16-0 as favorites of more than -130 when they are off two wins in which they never trailed. The Cardinals, meanwhile, are 0-8 as dogs of more than +135 vs. a team that has won at least their last three games. We are on the Friars.
54-27 IN LAST 81 MLB ML PICKS | +1026
6-2 IN LAST 8 STL ML PICKS | +271
OVER 8
MIAMI @ CHI. CUBS | 9/30 | 2:08 PM EDT
We were eagerly waiting for William Hill to post the total for this game -- all Cubs home totals are delayed -- because we saw that the wind at Wrigley Field is blowing out to right at 20 mph. That should mean a shootout and several long balls. It's the first-ever playoff start for the Marlins' Sandy Alcantara, so he's likely to have some jitters. Cubs starter Kyle Hendricks, meanwhile, had three outings this year where he allowed at least two homers. The Over is 6-0 in Marlins' past six road games with the total set at 7.0-8.5. We are on the Over (and the Cubs) at -120.
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