Service Plays Sunday 10/4/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Members post your personal plays in the various sports forums @ IWS and our betting trackers!

NFL
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NHL
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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus EARLY text , Cowboys , and OVER total Philly/49ers

[rocky57]

Stats Analytics Sports
NFL 15-7 ytd (68.2%) +15.8 Units (Does not include Thursday play on the Jets)
All plays 2* plays..
NFL
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Chicago Bears +3
Chicago Bears/Indianapolis Colts Under 44
Cleveland Browns/Dallas Cowboys Under 56
Baltimore Ravens/Washington Football Team Under 46

[Yellow]

Essler 3* TOM

Chargers Under 45

[B*mb07]

MARCO D'ANGELO[COLOR=#FFFFFF !important]ALL FOOTBALL PLAYS[/COLOR]

• Game: (261) Minnesota Vikings at (262) Houston Texans
  Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 3%
  Play: Minnesota Vikings +3.5 (-110)
  
  3% (261) MINNESOTA +3.5
  The public will look at this game and say both teams are 0-3 but look at who Houston has played. There is no question Houston has played the toughest schedule in the league so far but that defense leaves a lot to be desired. I just can’t lay points with a defense that can’t stop anyone. Teams are running the football right at the Houston defense which is allowing 5.2 yards per attempt. Add in Minnesota Coach Zimmer is a huge advantage over Houston Coach O’Brien. Going back to the start of last season Houston has lost 8 straight games ATS if they played on the road in their last game. TAKE MINNESOTA as my 3% NFL UPSET SHOCKER .
  
• 4% NFL 2 TEAM TEASER GAME OF THE WEEK
  Game: (257) Jacksonville Jaguars at (258) Cincinnati Bengals
  Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Jacksonville Jaguars +8.5 (-110)
  
  4% NFL 2 TEAM 6 PT TEASER
  (257) JACKSONVILLE +8.5
  (266) TAMPA BAY -0.5
  
• 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK
  Game: (277) Philadelphia Eagles at (278) San Francisco 49ers
  Date/Time: Oct 4 2020 8:20 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: Philadelphia Eagles +6.0 (-110)
  
  4% (277) PHILADELPHIA +6
  Will anyone want the Eagles this week? The Eagles look like a dumpster fire right now while the 49ers are coming off a big blowout win over the hapless Giants. Last Week San Francisco won big as they were in the injured player theory and they were playing a bad team in the Giants. Teams usually do well that first game when they have a star or stars out. Now it’s week 2 of the injured player theory and teams who win and cover the first game after the injury are now a go against in the second week. No matter if the injured players are still out or not as you don’t get the same intensity from the rest of the team as you had that first game with everyone playing at a different level to compensate for the loss of a key player or players. At 0-2-1 this is a must game for Philadelphia but fortunately for them they play in the NFC East where 7 or 8 wins might be enough to win the division. Philly has killed themselves with TO’s as they are on the wrong side of a 8-1 TO margin. You are not going to win games with 8 TO’s in 3 games. San Francisco beating The Jets and Giants in back to back weeks doesn’t impress me as all it does is give us line value with the Eagles. This is a must game for Philadelphia and they take this right down to the wire. Philadelphia 27-24. TAKE PHILADELPHIA as my 4% NFL GAME OF THE WEEK .
  

[golden contender]

Rob V: Sunday Comp Play

Sunday card has the 33-1 NFL Non Conference System Play of the Year, along with an Executive Level TIER 1 Play and the Sunday night Total of the Month. There is also Game 3 NBA Finals and Soccer.

The NFL Comp Play is on Jacksonville at 1:00 eastern. The Jags have covered 4 of 5 as a dog and the road team 3 of 4 in the series. The Bengals have failed to cover 5 of 6 when favored and 5 of 6 off a spread win. In fact favorites in weeks 2 through 9 off an over time tie that are changing surfaces in a game with a field goal margin are a terrible 9-41 to the spread. The Jags have extra rest here having played last Thursday and should get the cover. On Sunday a huge card is up with the 33-1 Non Conference Game of the Year, NFL Executive Level TIER 1, The Sunday night Football Total of the Month, NBA Finals and another Top Soccer Play. See us on facebook to jump on.For the Free play take the Jags Rob V- GC Sports

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

LAS VEGAS +3
BUFFALO @ LAS VEGAS | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
12:40 AM
I know the scoreboard didn't look great in the Raiders' loss to the Patriots, but I thought they played pretty well for most of that game considering their offensive injuries, and I chalk a big part of the loss up to fumble luck going against them. The Bills are 3-0 but have been shaky in their last two games, including on the road in Miami against a far worse team than this Las Vegas squad. The Bills struggled to stop the run against the Rams, and that's not good news with Josh Jacobs coming to town. With Darren Waller likely to be in better health this week, I think the Raiders have a much better chance of winning this game than the line suggests.

20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
14-7-1 IN LAST 22 BUF ATS PICKS | +632

9-6 IN LAST 15 LV ATS PICKS | +229

PITTSBURGH -1
PITTSBURGH @ TENNESSEE | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
12:39 AM
Why is Pittsburgh the favorite on the road when both these teams are 3-0? Well, it's because they're the much better team, top to bottom. The Titans defense has looked terrible, particularly against the run, where they're giving up a league-worst 5.8 yards per carry. They barely squeaked out wins against three bad teams, failing to cover in each. The Steelers, on the other hand, are completely shutting down the run at 2.7 yards per carry. That's not great news for Derrick Henry, nor for Ryan Tannehill trying to win it on his own against this talented secondary and pass rush. I like the Steelers to roll in this matchup.

20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
20-10 IN LAST 30 PIT ATS PICKS | +885

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
267 PIT 1.5(-110) Westgate vs 268 TEN double-dime bet

Analysis: PROPS IN THIS PICK!

While we are not getting the value on the spread that I quite hoped for (I make the line Steelers PK -115), I love the matchup for the Steelers against a fraudulent 3-0 team.


The Steelers have held the last three teams they have faced to 1.9, 4.0, and 1.5 YPC, a year after ranking third in YPC allowed. This run defense is elite, and quite possibly no team in the NFL relies on their run game more then the titans do. Derrick Henry is off to a slow start to the season, averaging only 3.9 YPC through three games. With AJ Brown likely out in week 4, the Titans are short on weapons to attack this Steelers pass defense.


The titans defense has been a problem recently. The previously putrid vikings offense woke up against them, averaging 7.5 YPP. The previous game, the Jags averaged 6.5 YPP. The titans defense is currently bad in all three phases: Pass rush, stopping the run, and coverage (they will likely be without CB Adoree Jackson once again) The titans find themselves fortunate to have won three 50/50 games against three of the worst teams in the NFL in the Broncos, Jags, and Vikings.


I expect the Steelers to close a small favorite in this one. Grab them as an underdog while the number is still out there!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
255 ARI / 256 CAR OVER 51.0 Pinnacle double-dime bet

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 4:25PM
275 BUF -2.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 276 LVR double-dime bet

Analysis: This one is all about cluster injuries, and the Raiders inability to beat winning teams.


Jon Gruden's Raiders are 1-14 SU and 3-12 ATS against teams that finish the season with a winning record. The Bills are my third rated team in the AFC, and certainly have the looks of a team that will finish the year with a winning record.


The injury situation for Las Vegas is troubling as well. The Raiders go into this game likely without all three of their projected wide receiver starters from the offseason in Tyrell Williams, Bryan Edwards, and Henry Ruggs. The Raiders are also without LG Richie Incognito, and RT Trent Brown is banged up as well.


I expect this number to close closer to 3.5, grab it now!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020
265 LAC 7.5(-120) Pinnacle vs 266 TAM double-dime bet

Analysis: The Chargers are a team you want to back getting points, not laying them. Anthony Lynn during his Chargers tenure is 8-4-2 ATS as an underdog, and the Chargers rarely lose by big margin. Even during last years horrendous 11 loss season, only two of the losses were by more then a touchdown.


The Bucs have the reputation of a high flying offense due to the big names of Tom Brady, Gronk, Evans, Godwin... but the Bucs are a defensive led football team with an offense still not clicking on all cylinders. Their offensive line is pretty average, and Brady is still serviceable but not the Brady of old.


No QB had a bigger drop off in completion % last year under pressure then Tom Brady. He also had 3rd biggest drop off in YPA when under pressure. This season has not been much different. Brady is averaging 3.4 YPA under pressure, and the Chargers rank 3rd in the NFL in pressure rate.


The Bucs have a tremendous defense, but Justin Herbert has thrown for 7.8 YPA so far this season, and put some life into the passing game for the Chargers. In a game where I liked the under (we missed out on the 45), I expect points to be at a premium for both teams, which favors the underdog getting over a touchdown.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 3:51 PM

UNDER 43.5
L.A. CHARGERS @ TAMPA BAY | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
The Chargers have been a dead Under team this year, as the combination of an inconsistent offense with a strong defense has prevented them from scoring more than 20 or giving up more than 23. The Bucs are also trending toward being an Under team as their defense rounds into form, and their excellence against the run means this game will be put in Justin Herbert's hands. As such, I think we see something similar to the Chargers' 21-16 loss last week, keeping us under the total, and I'm going to hop on it now as I think the line continues to sink during the week.

20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
5-4 IN LAST 9 LAC O/U PICKS | +61

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney
TOP DOG
YESTERDAY 6:55 PM

PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
Philly would lose out on the injury comparison with most opponents, but not this one. Ten starters were absent last Sunday for San Fran, which was fortunate to play the Jets, and most need more time to rehab. Though the Eagles are winless, they are a cut (or two) above New York. The Niners could be starved for points against the league’s No. 8 pass defense, which is coming off an eight-sack performance. Turnover tendencies tend to revert to the mean, and the Eagles’ league-worst minus-8 should improve if Carson Wentz can shake the interception bug.

12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
8-5 IN LAST 13 PHI ATS PICKS | +249

4-3 IN LAST 7 SF ATS PICKS | +65

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

NFL SURVIVOR POOL: WEEK 4 PICK

In Week 1 -- when hundreds of thousands of Survivor players blew their entire season by picking the Colts, Eagles or 49ers -- Tierney rolled with the Ravens over the Browns. The result: Baltimore 38, Cleveland 6. In Week 2, Tierney advanced with the Steelers (over the Broncos), and in Week 3, he cruised with the Colts demolishing the Jets. In fact, Tierney warned readers to avoid Arizona in Week 3 and sure enough, the Cards were upset at home by the winless Lions.

For Week 4, we can tell you Tierney is not going with the surging Buccaneers, even though they're favored by more than a touchdown against the 1-2 Chargers.


Here's Tierney's Week 4 write-up for Survivor pools:

Faithful readers of this column might recall the installment in which the dilemma that survivor players confront in Week One was addressed.

Do you opt for a Super Bowl contender with a soft opponent likely to get you off to a winning start? Or do you save the heavyweight team for the future and, for your initial pick, dip into the group of less likely victors that carry more risk?

My philosophy is to play it safe. After all, nothing spoils the buoyant mood on opening weekend than elimination from the pool just as it starts. So I, along with many others, went with the mighty Ravens, which paid off when they mauled Cleveland.

Yet it is weeks such as this that prompt second-guessing. Baltimore is blessed with a matchup against Washington. The Football Team launched its generic-nickname era by downing still-winless Philadelphia but bowed by two touchdowns apiece on the next two Sundays.

Fortunately for those of us who already have fired our Ravens arrow, we have a fetching alternative.

The Los Angeles Rams return home after an extended East Coast trip on which they trounced the Eagles and staged the grandest comeback in franchise annals, only to lose in the closing seconds to the Bills. Their offense ranks third despite a languid first half in Buffalo. That they handed back the lead at the end, with help from a debatable pass interference call on fourth down that preceded the decisive TD, boosts the attractiveness of L.A., which will be driven to erase the sting of the setback.

Of course, nothing makes the Rams more alluring than the identity of their foe.

The New York Giants have been butt-ugly, with losses by an average of 13.7 points. The nadir was last Sunday, when they were pulverized at home by the 49ers, who were absent six starters with injuries from the week before.

A flood of stats could be unleashed here to reinforce L.A. as the proper pick. Let's sample just a few of the most damning ones.

The Giants are 31st in point differential (ahead of only their MetLife Stadium co-tenants), 30th in time of possession, 29th in takeaways and 32nd in third-down conversions offensively and defensively.

One more: They are last in yards per rush, a lowly status unlikely to improve with RB Saquon Barkley done for the season.

Even if the Ravens remain in your quiver, to borrow from the ancient Randy Newman song, I love L.A.

Sometimes, we survivalists hit the bulls-eye. Week Three was one of those occasions as Indianapolis drew remarkably heavy backing — 44 percent in pools tracked by the website Survivor Grid and 39 according to the site RunYourPool.

The Colts lived up to the overwhelming support, which included my pick. Their 32-point margin against the hapless New York Jets was the most ample on the schedule.

However, the next most endorsed squad took a fall. The bloom came off the desert rose with Arizona's defeat to Detroit. The formerly unbeaten Cardinals were the chosen ones in nearly 11 percent of pools.

Some pool players took a stab at Cleveland and Tampa Bay, neither of whom had been a ball of fire, but each triumphed handily.

Not so the fifth squad on the popularity totem pole. About eight percent of participants violated a cardinal rule and selected a team with a rookie quarterback making his second start. The L.A. Chargers helped clean out the pool with a loss to Carolina.

Pick: Los Angeles Rams over New York Giants

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsline Computer

NFL


Best 5-team parlay:

Take Cowboys (-4.5) over Browns

Take Bears (+2.5) over Colts

Take Ravens (-13) over Washington

Take Buccaneers (-7.5) over Chargers

Take Bills (-3) over Raiders