Service Plays Sunday 10/4/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

NFL Best Bets


Here are Hammer's picks, posted Wednesday:

L.A. RAMS -13

N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT

The Giants are horrible, their QB is a turnover machine. The Rams will be ticked off after that frustrating loss in Buffalo. It's a big number but I don't care. The Giants can't score.

NEW ORLEANS -4

NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT

The Lions just broke their 11-game losing streak, but they still have problems in their secondary and they're facing a New Orleans team that should get Michael Thomas back. Alvin Kamara may be the best back in the league right now. I don't think Detroit's defense has an answer for him.

ARIZONA -3.5

ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT

Kyler Murray isn't going to throw three interceptions this week, not against this defense. I think Arizona bounces back strong against a Carolina team that just snapped a long losing streak. Lay the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

NEW ENGLAND +7
NEW ENGLAND @ KANSAS CITY | 10/04 | 4:25 PM EDT
1:25 PM
The whole world is going to be on the Chiefs now, but I think they're in for a bit of a letdown after that near-perfect game they played on Monday night. The number is a little high. New England has a very good secondary. This will be a close game, so take the points.

11-2 IN LAST 13 NE ATS PICKS | +881

4-2 IN LAST 6 KC ATS PICKS | +180


L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
1:21 PM
The Giants are horrible, their QB is a turnover machine. The Rams will be ticked off after that frustrating loss in Buffalo. It's a big number but I don't care. The Giants can't score.

15-7-1 IN LAST 23 LAR ATS PICKS | +736

2-1 IN LAST 3 NYG ATS PICKS | +89

NEW ORLEANS -4
NEW ORLEANS @ DETROIT | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:07 PM
The Lions just broke their 11-game losing streak, but they still have problems in their secondary and they're facing a New Orleans team that should get Michael Thomas back. Alvin Kamara may be the best back in the league right now. I don't think Detroit's defense has an answer for him.

11-5 IN LAST 16 NO ATS PICKS | +537

5-3 IN LAST 8 DET ATS PICKS | +168

DALLAS -4.5
CLEVELAND @ DALLAS | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:02 PM
Dak Prescott has three great receivers, he's spreading the ball around, and I think the Cowboys will put enough pressure on Baker Mayfield. This is a shootout-type game that favors Dallas.

5-4-1 IN LAST 10 CLE ATS PICKS | +51

ARIZONA -3.5
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:00 PM
Kyler Murray isn't going to throw three interceptions this week, not against this defense. I think Arizona bounces back strong against a Carolina team that just snapped a long losing streak. Lay the points.

2-1 IN LAST 3 ARI ATS PICKS | +90

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pete Prisco

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5) at Carolina Panthers
The Cardinals are coming off a bad loss, and now must take a long trip to the East Coast. The Panthers have played much better on defense than expected, but I think Kyler Murray will get back on track here and have a big day. Cardinals take it.

Pick: Cardinals 35, Panthers 23


Indianapolis Colts (-2.5) at Chicago Bears
This will be Nick Foles in as the starter for the Bears, which should help the offense. But the Colts defense has played well the past two weeks, which will make it a challenge. Look for the Colts to win a tight road game.

Pick: Colts 28, Bears 21

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
The Bengals tied last week at Philadelphia, which is a victory of sorts. But this is a good chance to get a real win. The Jaguars are having issues on defense, which should make for a big game for Joe Burrow. Bengals win it.

Pick: Bengals 33, Jaguars 27

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys (-4.5)
The Cowboys are back home, but they better hope their defense shows up. It's been awful. The Browns can run the ball, which could be a problem. Even so, look for Dak Prescott to get the Cowboys another home victory.

Pick: Cowboys 35, Browns 23

New Orleans Saints at Detroit Lions (+4)
The Saints didn't look good in losing at home to the Packers, especially on defense. This is a tough road game to try and turn it around. Matthew Stafford played well last week, and I think he will in this one. But the Saints will score as well. They win a tight, high-scoring game.


Pick: Saints 31, Lions 30

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (OFF)
This is a game matching two 0-3 teams, but one has looked far worse than the other. That's the Vikings. Last time out on the road they were dominated by the Colts. The Texans have played a brutal schedule, and they will take it out on the Colts.

Pick: Texans 34, Vikings 21

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins
This is the longest trip in the NFL, which is always a challenge. Miami is also rested after playing Thursday. Big edge to the Dolphins. But that's it. They won't be able to slow Russell Wilson. The Seahawks keep rolling.

Pick: Seahawks 37, Dolphins 23

Pittsburgh Steelers (OFF) at Tennessee Titans
The Titans COVID-19 situation bears watching to see if this game is played. If it is, it's a game between two 3-0 teams, one with a good defense in Pittsburgh and the other with a bad defense in the Titans. Tennessee has won three close games, and this will also be a close one. One difference: Steelers take it behind a late field goal.

Pick: Steelers 27, Titans 24

Los Angeles Chargers (+7.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
This is a long trip for the Chargers, and the question is who will be playing quarterback. It won't matter. Tampa Bay is playing well on defense and they will shut down the Chargers offense. Tom Brady will play well enough against a good Chargers defense.

Pick: Bucs 28, Chargers 21

Baltimore Ravens (-13) at Washington Football Team
The Ravens are coming off a bad showing in losing to the Chiefs. But Washington is the perfect tonic. Lamar Jackson and the offense will get back on track and win an easy one.

Pick: Ravens 34, Washington Football Team 17

New York Giants at Los Angeles Rams (-13)
The Rams are home after two long road trips, which should be a comfort of sorts. The Giants are the team taking the long trip. They also aren't playing well. The Rams are playing well and that shows up. Blowout.


Pick: Rams 36, Giants 17

New England Patriots at Kansas City Chiefs (-7)
It's always a treat when these two get together, even if Tom Brady isn't a part of it anymore. The Chiefs are coming off an impressive showing at Baltimore and I think that carries over here. New England is great taking away one thing on offense, but this is an offense with many. Chiefs take it.

Pick: Chiefs 37, Patriots 24

Buffalo Bills at Las Vegas Raiders (+3)
The Bills are riding high behind Josh Allen, but this is a long trip against a team coming off a loss. This is a be-careful game for the Bills. But I think Allen will win a shootout with Derek Carr as the Bills stay undefeated.

Pick: Bills 33, Raiders 31

Philadelphia Eagles (+7) at San Francisco 49ers
The Eagles haven't played well yet. Carson Wentz is struggling in a big way. Can he turn it around here? It won't be easy, even against a banged-up 49ers team. The 49ers take it in a close one.


Pick: 49ers 26, Eagles 21

Atlanta Falcons at Green Bay Packers (-7.5)
The Falcons are coming off two major chokes in their past two games. They haven't looked good on defense at all. The Packers are rolling on offense with Aaron Rodgers and I expect that to stay that way. Packers big.

Pick: Packers 34, Falcons 26

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Jesus Podcast quote " give me the Raiders + points"

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White

GREEN BAY -7
ATLANTA @ GREEN BAY | 10/05 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 8:00 PM
I was higher than most on the Falcons coming into the season after their second-half improvements last year, thinking they could be solid defensively and good-to-great on the offensive side of the ball with their two first-round picks on the line entering their second year. But I don't know how the Falcons come back mentally after back-to-back meltdowns the scale of what we've seen of the last two weeks. The Packers defense hasn't played well enough to trust them on this big number against a solid team, but again, the Falcons will have to prove they can rebound mentally from the last two weeks.

20-13 IN LAST 33 NFL PICKS | +555
38-7 IN LAST 45 GB ATS PICKS | +3002

29-17 IN LAST 46 ATL ATS PICKS | +1015

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

ARIZONA -3.5
ARIZONA @ CAROLINA | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:44 PM
One unexpected outcome for each -- a Cardinals loss, a Panthers win -- has shrunk this spread too much. Arizona was awesome in the two wins, then fell on a buzzer-beating field goal. Carolina dropped its first two games, then squeezed past the Chargers and their rookie QB. The gap between offenses is vast. Arizona’s is potent with budding QB star Kyler Murray; Carolina’s is crippled minus RB Christian McCaffrey (ankle). Assuming Murray does not serve up three interceptions again, the Panthers will stay south of 20 points -- well below what it will take for a W.

12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
5-0-1 IN LAST 6 ARI ATS PICKS | +500

4-1 IN LAST 5 CAR ATS PICKS | +288

INDIANAPOLIS -2.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CHICAGO | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 7:42 PM
Yes, Bears QB Nick Foles was killer in relief of Mitch Trubisky, which has earned him a start. Keep in mind, though, that he chewed up Atlanta’s awful defense to rally Chicago. Indianapolis is the polar opposite, ranked first in passing yards and points allowed. Nor does Foles have the crutch that is versatile RB Tarik Cohen (ACL). The Bears are the weakest of the seven 3-0 teams and are overdue for a defeat. Indy’s offense has exercised the proper caution with QB Philip Rivers, who has gone from a playmaker to an effective game manager.

12-7 IN LAST 19 NFL ATS PICKS | +435
13-8 IN LAST 21 IND ATS PICKS | +423

6-2 IN LAST 8 CHI ATS PICKS | +376

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Micah Roberts

OVER 54
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:20 PM
The Dolphins offense has looked great the past two weeks and should fare well against the Seahawks' No. 32-ranked defense that allows 497.3 yards per game. Seattle games are averaging a 37-29 score, and Russell Wilson has thrown 14 TD passes. The Seahawks offense is clicking better than ever and will continue to do so Sunday. Look for an entertaining game. I’m on the Over.

4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +400
6-2 IN LAST 8 SEA O/U PICKS | +380

PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
2:14 PM
I love how four key 49ers backups made the most of their playing time against the Giants in a 36-9 win, one week after a lot of the injuries happened on the MetLife Stadium turf in their 31-13 win against the Jets. But those are two of the lowest-rated teams in football; everyone is beating those teams. And the combination of those big 49ers wins and the Eagles not even coming close to sniffing a cover has given us a massively inflated number to jump on. Give me the desperate Eagles and the points in what could be an outright win.

4-0 IN LAST 4 NFL PICKS | +400
4-0 IN LAST 4 SF ATS PICKS | +400

15-10 IN LAST 25 PHI ATS PICKS | +395

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
3:00 PM
The Rams lost an epic game last week at Buffalo and will take it out on the hopeless Giants. Daniel Jones is just 3-12 in 15 career starts. He has been sacked nine times. The Giants’ banged up offensive line is going to have much trouble with the Los Angeles pass rush. Jones continues to turn the ball over at a very alarming rate and the offense ranks second-to-last in the NFL. New York is also thin on defense. The Rams rank third in the NFL in rushing at 170 yards per game. New York has covered in eight of the last nine meetings, but Los Angeles is 6-0 ATS following a ATS loss.

10-6 IN LAST 16 NFL ATS PICKS | +340
3-0 IN LAST 3 LAR ATS PICKS | +300

3-0 IN LAST 3 NYG ATS PICKS | +300

OVER 54
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:29 PM
Scoring is way up in the NFL. The Overs have been hitting at an amazing clip this year at 29-19, 60 percent on the season. This total has surprisingly come down a couple of points since it first opened. Russell Wilson has tossed an NFL record 14 TDs in just three games and Seattle is averaging 37 points per game. The Seahawks defense ranks last in the NFL in passing yards and total yards allowed and is banged up. The Over has cashed in five straight home games for the Dolphins. Seattle has excelled in early start times on the East Coast.

3-0 IN LAST 3 NFL PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

MIAMI +6.5
SEATTLE @ MIAMI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:55 PM
This is a great spot for the Dolphins, who had extra rest following their impressive performance in Jacksonville. The Seahawks have been terrible defending the pass and they'll likely be without safety Jamal Adams (groin). He was one of 25 Seahawks on the initial injury report. Even if Russell Wilson puts Seattle up by double digits, Ryan Fitzpatrick can get us the backdoor cover.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
8-3-2 IN LAST 13 SEA ATS PICKS | +470

7-3 IN LAST 10 MIA ATS PICKS | +370

JACKSONVILLE +3
JACKSONVILLE @ CINCINNATI | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
2:34 PM
The Jaguars had extra rest while the Bengals played five full quarters at Philadelphia. Look for Jacksonville's offense, which should get No. 1 wideout D.J. Chark back from a chest injury, to bounce back from a poor performance in the Thursday night spotlight. Grab the points.

4-1 IN LAST 5 NFL ATS PICKS | +275
11-7-1 IN LAST 19 JAC ATS PICKS | +345

13-9-1 IN LAST 23 CIN ATS PICKS | +307

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Emory Hunt

PHILADELPHIA +7
PHILADELPHIA @ SAN FRANCISCO | 10/04 | 8:20 PM EDT
1:58 PM
While the Eagles enter this game a bit banged up on both sides of the ball, their defense still has the ability to slow down the 49ers on offense. Yes, 49ers coach Kyle Shanahan is one of the best in the game, and will have the team ready to play and play well. But to me, a full touchdown against an extremely desperate Eagles team looking to stave off implosion is a bit too much.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
27-15-1 IN LAST 43 PHI ATS PICKS | +1036

2-1 IN LAST 3 SF ATS PICKS | +90

BALTIMORE -13
BALTIMORE @ WASHINGTON | 10/04 | 1:00 PM EDT
1:56 PM
Baltimore looked completely out of sync offensively against the Chiefs last week. Fortunately for the Ravens, they face a Washington offense that has problems in protecting the QB, getting off to fast starts, and running the football. This matchup is a lopsided one, which explains the high point spread. You can definitely find comfort in the Ravens this week.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
11-3 IN LAST 14 BAL ATS PICKS | +770

L.A. RAMS -13
N.Y. GIANTS @ L.A. RAMS | 10/04 | 4:05 PM EDT
1:54 PM
The Giants defense does a great job early in games, but their offense isn't able to take advantage of the extra possessions. Unfortunately for them, the Rams don't need many possessions to strike quick. But if you are consistently giving them the ball because you can't score, they will more than surely make you pay with points. And those points are usually touchdowns.

2-1 IN LAST 3 NFL ATS PICKS | +90
17-11-2 IN LAST 30 LAR ATS PICKS | +483

6-3 IN LAST 9 NYG ATS PICKS | +269

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports NFL
5-Vegas+3.5
4-patriots+7
3-Tampa bay-7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
261 MIN 5.0(-110) Bookmaker vs 262 HOU double-dime bet

Analysis: I was waiting for corona related news to break on this game before releasing. The Vikings are practicing today and have no corona cases. Feel good enough about it to play Minnesota.


I make this game Minnesota +3.25, giving us value at anything over that, and I believe the market has over reacted to the corona related news from the Titans and Vikings game. People will speak about the Vikings practice week being thrown off (they did not practice on Wednesday), but that is not worth a 1.5 point line move in my opinion. The emergence of WR Justin Jefferson is HUGE for a team struggling at playmaker aside from Thielen and Cook. Minnesota has edges in the run game on offense against a Texans rush defense allowing an insane 5.8 YPC to opposing running backs, and also in the passing game against a Texans defense that can't take advantage of Minnesota's offensive weakness (offensive line). This Texans defense also had to play 76 snaps last week while their offense was on the field for only 47 snaps, so fatigue could a small issue for Houston


While Houston has some clear matchup edges for their passing game (which is implied into the line considering how high this total is), it's just flat out too many points that the Vikings are getting.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Total - Sunday, Oct 4 2020 1:00PM
265 LAC / 266 TAM UNDER 43.5 Pinnaclesingle-dime bet

Analysis: This play would have been a 2* at the 45 opener, but I am downgrading it to a 1* since we missed the best number. I still believe it has value and should close around 42.


I spoke about in our Chargers write up how Brady struggles against pressure, making this is a bad matchup for the Bucs passing game. The Bucs are also dealing with injuries to their skill position players: RB Leonard Fournette is not practicing, but more importantly two of the Bucs top three wideouts in Godwin (out) and Miller (questionable) are banged up as well.


The Chargers injury report is uninspiring for their offense as well. C Mike Pouncey is already out, and RG Trai Turner, RT Bryan Bulaga, and WR Mike Williams are all questionable for this game.


Chargers games are averaging only 36.3 PPG through three games, and in a game where I have concerns for both offenses production, I have to play under despite the line moving earlier in the week.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Warren Sharp

Add: Kansas City Chiefs to win the Super Bowl +400 (risk 1 unit) (available at both Fanduel, DraftKings and others) - just a value play on a bad line, it should be much lower than 4:1 with only one first round bye, the Chiefs winning the MNF game vs the Ravens and both remaining schedules - OK to bet thru 3.5:1
___
Add: 257 Jacksonville Over 46 (0.75 units)
Add: 261 Minnesota Vikings Over 51.5 (0.75 units)
Add: 251 Indianapolis Colts Over 44 -115 (0.75 units)
Add: 275 Buffalo Bills Over 49.5 (1 unit)
Add: 277 Philadelphia Eagles Over 43 (1 unit)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Stats Analytics Sports
NFL 15-7 ytd (68.2%) +15.8 Units (Does not include Thursday play on the Jets)
All plays 2* plays..
NFL
Philadelphia Eagles +7.5
Chicago Bears +3
Chicago Bears/Indianapolis Colts Under 44
Cleveland Browns/Dallas Cowboys Under 56
Baltimore Ravens/Washington Football Team Under 46