Service Plays Saturday 10/10/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

• Dwayne Bryant
• Game: (317) Miami Florida at (318) Clemson
  Date/Time: Oct 10 2020 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 4%
  Play: 1H Clemson -7.5 (-110)
  
  7:30 PM ET -- College Football
  317 Miami Florida
  318 Clemson
  
  PLAY --> 318 CLEMSON -7.5 (-110) FIRST HALF
  BET SIZE --> 4%
  PLAYABLE AT -8 or better
  
  I love fading public dogs and, as I write this, Miami is the biggest public dog in regards to ticket count and bet percentages. There's no question that Miami is improved. They are 3-0 and have covered all three games, but they are stepping way up in class here. Miami's 3-0 record ensures that Swinney and the Clemson players won't be taking Miami lightly.
  Some would say Clemson hasn't looked all that great through three games. The Tigers haven't covered a game yet. That's only because coach Dabo Swinney has taken his foot off the gas in the second half of two of those three games. They led Wake Forest 27-0 at halftime as about a 5-TD favorite, and led Citadel 49-0 at halftime as a 50-point favorite (game ended 49-0). They led Virginia 24-10 at halftime last week as a 4-TD favorite, so I don't think they covered the first-half number (may have pushed). Swinney likes to use the early-season games to tinker with personnel, experiment with new schemes, etc. to find out what works and what doesn't before the tougher games on the schedule. This is the fewest points Clemson has been favored by at home since laying 6.5 to Auburn in Week 2 of the 2017 season.
  With Clemson routinely taking its foot off the gas in the second half and letting teams in the backdoor, I'm not comfortable laying two TDs (especially considering how my late-game luck has gone so far this season). But I'm confident in Clemson's ability to come out strong and be in command at the half.
  PLAY CLEMSON FIRST HALF.
• 5% CFB MAX BET: 150% GUARANTEE
  Game: (307) Mississippi State at (308) Kentucky
  Date/Time: Oct 10 2020 7:30 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Kentucky -2.5 (-115)
  
  7:30 PM ET -- College Football
  307 Mississippi State
  308 Kentucky
  
  PLAY --> 308 KENTUCKY -2.5 (-115)
  PLAYABLE AT -3 or better
  BET SIZE --> 5%
  
  Kentucky is a much better team than its 0-2 record would lead you to believe. The Wildcats outgained both of its opponents, but are -4 in turnovers through two games (two of the turnovers occurred at the goal line). Kentucky QB Terry Wilson has looked superb in his comeback season (missed almost all of 2019 with a knee injury), leading the team in rushing and completing a very high percentage of his passes. This is the same Terry Wilson that led Kentucky to double-digit wins and a bowl victory over Penn State in 2018.
  Mississippi State kicked off the Mike Leach / Air Raid era with a stunning upset win at LSU. The Bulldogs followed that with a sloppy home loss as 17-point chalk against Arkansas. Kentucky now has two games worth of film to prepare for Leach's Bulldog Air Raid attack.
  Kentucky is the better team, but has been the victim of some bad luck in its first two games. I expect that pendulum of luck to swing Kentucky's way here at home.
  PLAY KENTUCKY.
  
  

[Can'tPickAWinner]

late info 75,100..75 w ket...1-3
gold key club 75,100..75 pitt..1-3
prime star 4,5..4 geo..2-1
sports advisor 7,10..7 tcu...3-1
vegas high rollers 75,100..75 temple..1-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

vip sports 200,300..200 iowa st..3-2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

W. KENTUCKY +7
MARSHALL @ W. KENTUCKY | 10/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:14 PM
The momentum built by Marshall from an upset of No. 23 Appalachian State surely has dissolved after two straight weeks off. The Thundering Herd hit the road for the first time. Both Marshall and Western Kentucky wield unforgiving defenses, resulting in a low total of 43.5, which magnifies the one-touchdown spread. The series has generated close games lately. If the trend continues, Western covers, even with a straight-up defeat.

3-1 IN LAST 4 MRSHL ATS PICKS | +190

2-1 IN LAST 3 WKY ATS PICKS | +90

SOUTH FLORIDA -5
EAST CAROLINA @ SOUTH FLORIDA | 10/10 | 7:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:10 PM
How do you spell “relief?” Try using the letters E-C-U. South Florida bagged only seven points off the rugged Notre Dame and Cincinnati defenses. Now the Bulls get relief against the No. 73-ranked defense among the 75 teams that have played. The USF defense yielded only 21 points and 332 yards to Cincy while forcing four turnovers. Anything resembling a repeat should be sufficient. What’s more, it’s homecoming at USF, with 11,000 tickets available.

6-2 IN LAST 8 SFLA ATS PICKS | +379

UNDER 69
ALABAMA @ OLE MISS | 10/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:06 PM
A basketball game in cleats. That’s how the public largely views this matchup of the un-zen master (Alabama’s Nick Saban) and his flaky protege (Lane Kiffin). However, even the almighty Saban cannot control the weather, which will bring rain and potentially high winds from Hurricane Delta. The Crimson Tide could be inclined to finish off their business as quickly as possible with a run-minded gameplan. Besides, this is the SEC. Shootouts just don’t happen regularly.

SOUTH CAROLINA -13.5
SOUTH CAROLINA @ VANDERBILT | 10/10 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:04 PM
The Gamecocks have been more than competitive in losses to Florida and Tennessee. Their offense controlled the clock against both, giving South Carolina a No. 3 national ranking in possession time (35:36). The run-minded approach should serve the visitors well in rainy conditions caused by Hurricane Delta. Gamecocks coach Will Muschamp is 4-0 ATS versus Vandy, and his team figures to play with desperation. Win chances are scarce on the rest of the schedule.

8-0 IN LAST 8 SC ATS PICKS | +800

VIRGINIA -7.5
NC STATE @ VIRGINIA | 10/10 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:00 PM
It’s unusual for a Power Five school to play three consecutive road games, so let’s jump on the rare opportunity. Even though the teams’ talent difference might not measure up to a full touchdown, Virginia’s ground game is impressive and NC State’s rushing defense is not. The Wolfpack secondary has been so beset by injuries that WR Max Fisher was moved over last week, and that was before another starter was sidelined.

3-2 IN LAST 5 UVA ATS PICKS | +80

FLORIDA -6
FLORIDA @ TEXAS A&M | 10/10 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:56 PM
The Aggies’ narrow win over Vanderbilt and lopsided loss to Alabama inspire less than a thimbleful of confidence against the potent Gators. While Florida QB Kyle Trask is a prominent Heisman Trophy candidate, the other Kyle — Pitts, an inevitable NFL TE — deserves consideration. They fuel an offense that is far better than A&M’s. The margin in Florida’s last eight SEC wins has been at least a touchdown. Its defense might be spotty, but A&M lacks the offensive oomph to take advantage.

7-1-1 IN LAST 9 FLA ATS PICKS | +588

3-0 IN LAST 3 TXAM ATS PICKS | +300

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MILLER LOCKS

Saturday 10/10/2020 Picks

12:00 PM EST NCAAF
NC STATE VS. VIRGINIA

PICK: NC STATE +7 (-103)

RISK: 11 UNITS

12:00 PM EST NCAAF
VIRGINA TECH VS. NORTH CAROLINA

PICK: VIRGINA TECH +3 (-112)

RISK: 11 UNITS

12:00 PM EST NCAAF
FLORIDA VS. TEXAS A&M

PICK: TEXAS A&M +6 (-112)

RISK: 11 UNITS

12:00 PM EST NCAAF
SOUTH CAROLINA VS. VANDERBILT

PICK: VANDERBILT +13.5 (-106)

RISK: 11 UNITS

3:30 PM EST NCAAF
TENNESSEE VS. GEORGIA

PICK: TENNESSEE +12.5 (-113)

RISK: 11 UNITS

6:00 PM EST MMA
OMAR MORALES VS. GIGA CHIKADZE

PICK: GIGA CHIKADZE (+145)

RISK: 11 UNITS

6:25 PM EST MMA
TONY KELLEY VS. ALI ALQAISI

PICK: TONY KELLEY (-220)

RISK: 11 UNITS

7:15 PM EST MMA
RODRIGO NASCIMENTO VS. CHRIS DAUKAUS

PICK: CHRIS DAUKAUS (+211)

RISK: 11 UNITS

7:30 PM EST NCAAF
MIAMI FLORIDA VS. CLEMSON

PICK: MIAMI FLORIDA +14.5 (+102)

RISK: 11 UNITS

8:15 PM EST MMA
YOUSSEF ZALAL VS. ILIA TOPURIA

PICK: ILIA TOPURIA (+140)

RISK: 11 UNITS

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bill Marzano

TEMPLE -3.5
TEMPLE @ NAVY | 10/10 | 6:00 PM EDT
9:43 AM
This is going to be Temple's first game of the season, and the Owls face a Navy team that has already played three games but is just 1-2. Teams that haven't played a game this season are 18-4 ATS against teams that have already played one or more games. This isn't last year's Navy team that is struggling to run the football, and the Midshipmen face a tough task in slowing down a very good Temple team that is even better defensively. Temple is 6-1 ATS in the last seven overall meetings. Temple covers.

3-1 IN LAST 4 TEMPLE ATS PICKS | +189

KENTUCKY -160
MISS. STATE @ KENTUCKY | 10/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:37 AM
Mississippi State has been up and down the first couple of games while Kentucky is still looking for its first win, and that makes the Wildcats desperate and dangerous. They are much better than their 0-2 record suggests but are going to have to play better defensively. Meanwhile the Bulldogs were upset last week by a bad Arkansas team after their big upset win over LSU in the season opener; it's hard to see them ready to face a Kentucky team that must win. The home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings. The Bulldogs are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 road games. Kentucky moneyline is the play.

MIAMI (FLA.) +15
MIAMI (FLA.) @ CLEMSON | 10/10 | 7:30 PM EDT
9:30 AM
This is a fantastic matchup but has been one-sided recently and dominated by Clemson. The Tigers have won the last two meetings by a combined score of 92-3. But look for this game to be much closer than this line suggests. Quarterbacks Trevor Lawrence and D'Eriq King are sure to put on a show with their talents to both throw and run. But Lawrence's current Clemson record with 314 passes without an interception will come to an end on Saturday against a very aggressive Canes defense. Miami has all the motivation, and this is just too many points despite the past history.

KANSAS ST. +9.5
KANSAS ST. @ TCU | 10/10 | 4:00 PM EDT
9:23 AM
This is a very intriguing, matchup and my numbers made this line -6 so there is plenty of value with the Wildcats here. Kansas State coach Chris Klieman has led his team to a 2-0 Big 12 record with two huge comeback wins, including a win over No. 3 Oklahoma and Texas Tech last week. The Wildcats are playing with a ton of confidence, and no lead is safe with them. They are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as a road underdog while TCU is just 8-22 ATS in their last 30 home games and 10-28 ATS in their last 28 as a favorite. Take K-State.

FLORIDA -6.5
FLORIDA @ TEXAS A&M | 10/10 | 12:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 1:25 PM
The Florida Gators are sitting at No. 4 in the polls. The Gators are terrific offensively, led by QB Kyle Trask, who has tossed 10 TDs vs. just one INT. He is completing over 71 percent of his passes. Florida is averaging almost 500 yards per contest. After watching Alabama shred this Aggies secondary, Trask is about to do the same thing. Kellen Mond has completed just over 58 percent of his passes with four TDs and one INT so far this year. The Gators are 31-12 ATS in their last 43 games as a road favorite.

3-1 IN LAST 4 TXAM ATS PICKS | +189

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike McClure
MONEY
1:46 AM

KANSAS ST. +9.5
KANSAS ST. @ TCU | 10/10 | 4:00 PM EDT
I'm expecting a little big of a letdown for TCU after a huge win over Texas last week. I'm expecting Skylar Thompson to be ready to play for Kansas State, but I still make the Wildcats only +7.5 if freshman Will Howard has to play in this game. If Thompson is confirmed in I only make the Wildcats +3 road dogs against this TCU squad. Take the points.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Zack Cimini

CHARLOTTE -2.5
CHARLOTTE @ NORTH TEXAS | 10/10 | 8:00 PM EDT
1:43 PM
An under-the-radar matchup is in Conference USA as Charlotte travels to face North Texas. The 49ers are 0-2 but have represented well in both losses. Against Appalachian State the 49ers were down 21-20 with a minute left in the third quarter. Last week against Florida Atlantic they blew a 10-0 halftime lead. Saturday, look for the 49ers to emphasize competition for two halves. Grab the 49ers.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB ATS PICKS | +380
5-2 IN LAST 7 NTEXAS ATS PICKS | +291

SOUTH FLORIDA -6
EAST CAROLINA @ SOUTH FLORIDA | 10/10 | 7:00 PM EDT
1:41 PM
Teams hoping to get back in the win column on Saturday will meet in East Carolina and South Florida. The transition for new South Florida Bulls coach Jeff Scott has been slow for his offense. Sophomore quarterback Jordan McCloud has thrown for just 269 yards through three games. A step down from Top 25 competition should aide in McCloud’s performance. Grab the Bulls to pull away from East Carolina.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB ATS PICKS | +380
5-3 IN LAST 8 SFLA ATS PICKS | +171

ARKANSAS +14
ARKANSAS @ AUBURN | 10/10 | 4:00 PM EDT
1:40 PM
Off a big upset win over Mississippi State, Arkansas finds itself as a steep double-digit underdog against Auburn. While Auburn may get things into gear offensively, look for Arkansas to compete. Senior quarterback Feleipe Franks should be settled in after nearly a year off from on-field action. Grab Arkansas.

6-2 IN LAST 8 CFB ATS PICKS | +380

[rocky57]

The Stat Report (The Swami CFB) - 10* Game of the Week Temple -4

[rocky57]

Noble Technology (The Swami CFB) - 10* Top Total Play Clemson/Miami Florida Over 59

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sportsline Computer

CFB

FIU -227

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Added

1* Iowa St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The sharp plays

Tennessee +12 LPJ 2U