Service Plays Sunday 10/11/20

[Can'tPickAWinner]

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

HITMAN | NFL Side - Sunday, Oct 11 2020 4:25PM
474 CLE 3.0(-120) Bookmaker vs 473 IND double-dime bet

Analysis: The market LOVES Indy, but this line is out of wack IMO.


Nick Chubb is likely out for the Browns, but they have a more then capable backup in Kareem Hunt. The underrated injury that nobody seems to be talking about is Darius Leonard for the Colts. I would guess that Leonard misses the game this week.


The Colts closed -3.5 at Chicago, a clearly inferior team to the Browns. The Colts deserve a slight upgrade for that win, but the Browns deserve an upgrade off their dominating win against Dallas as well.


I make this game Cleveland +1. Take the line value!

[citybeat]

Las Vegas Cris


Game: (473) Indianapolis Colts at (474) Cleveland Browns
Date/Time: Oct 11 2020 4:25 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Pinnacle
Play Rating: 4%
Play: Indianapolis Colts -141

Colts -141 4%
Colts a solid winner for us last weekend and it looks like a similar scenario setting up this weekend. Surprised Chicago didn't get more action to bring that line down, but too many people “in the know” knew that Chicago is a pretender and Indy is a solid team. This week, similar situation with the optics of Browns off a big win vs Dallas and coming back home vs a Indy team many feel hasn't played a tough schedule, and Rivers looks as mobile as the goal post. Chubb out for Cleveland will hurt them and Colts likely without linebacker Leonard is not good news for Indy. Metrics come in Tuesday mornings but these 2 teams are so far apart, safe to say this is a play this week. Poor prediction of line movement this year (Inverse of previous yrs) has us playing this game now before most people have had a chance to process wk 4. The value is there and we dont want to see this line move higher like it did last week with Indy and Buffalo. Both were games that just kept moving.

[citybeat]

• PREZIDENTs NFL SUNDAY 5% MAIN EVENT
  Game: (473) Indianapolis Colts at (474) Cleveland Browns
  Date/Time: Oct 11 2020 4:25 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Cleveland Browns +3.0 (-120)
  
  Play the Cleveland Browns +3 (play good to +3)
  5% play rating
  Writeup forthcoming
  CLEVELAND BROWNS +3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

FEZZIK | NFL TOTAL SUN, 10/11/20 - 4:25 PM
474 CLE / 473 IND Under 47.5 Southpoint

triple-dime bet

Analysis:

Indy is a GREAT under team with an elite D, and an average O


Clev has a slightly above av O and D.

With Indy D having the key edge, LOVE under here.


I attached some notes I have from last week:




KEY GAMES:


Clev 49 DAL 38

Clev runs for 40/307 despite Chubb injured 1st half!


Dallas D is a MESS giving up 7 yards/play despite Clev running the majority of time…40 of 73 plays



Clev got Bechkam involved early with trick plays

Landry TD pass to him

Reverse to him 1st half (and end of gm)

Dal -3 T/0, 2 turnovers back to back 2Q got Clev a 14 point lead

Clev covers 2nd half +7 by 1 with a miracle 2 points on a blocked Xtra point they somehow recover and run in………



Dak: 41/58 502 8.7 4/1 QBR 76

Mayfield: 19/30 165 5.5 2/0 QBR 61

I upgraded Clev by 1 lowered Dallas by 1







Indy 19 CHIC 11

Indy completely shut down Chic offense, it was 19-3 LATE

Indy 290 yards (4.2) Chic 269 ( 4.6)

Chic struggled despite no MLB Darius Leonard 2h

Chic 90 yard drive vs. prevent D in final 4 mins, made stats

better

Foles: 26/42/241 5.9 1/1 QBR 42

Rivers: 16/29/186 6.6 1/0 QBR 82

Chic O struggled all day despite Indy MLB Darius Leonard OUT 2nd half

Chic garbage yards late

3-19 Chic trailed and got 90 yards on last drive

And Chic got a bail out PI call on a long pass on 4th down on the drive before



I upgraded Indy ½ a point, lowered Chic by 1 point









Buf 30 Oak 23

Stats were even:

BUf 336 (5.7) LV 383 (5.6)

Buf wins T/os 0-2

Allen continues to shine: 4th straight gm ABOVE his 266 prior high

Allen 24/34 288 8.5 2/0 QBR 92

Carr 32/44 311 7.1 2/0 QBR 90

Carr solid despite missing top 2 WRS

WRs: Renfrow 5/57, Agholor 4/44

Buf D continues to WAY underperform:

Raiders 383 yards, 5.6/play despite down both starting WRs

YTD: Buf D giving up: 5.9 (21st in league)

2019: BUF D gave up: 4.9 (4th)

Raiders: 2 turnovers do them iõn 2nd half:

Waller, then Carr both fumbled on drives

Kept the Raiders down 14……..



I upgraded Buf by ½ a point





Philly 25 SF 20

SF (Mullens) really gave away this game:

Philly O held in check….

Philly: 267 yards (4.5) SF 417 yards (6.0)

T/o: Phi 1 SF 3

Wentz was down All his WRS (Jackson, Reagor, Jeffery)

And Oline already with 3 injuries, had Lane Johnson going in/out

Wentz: 18/28 193 6.9 1/1 sacked 3x, QBR 74

Mullens: 18/26 200 7.7 1/2 Sacked 4x, QBR 13

Key mistakes: Up 8-7 end 2Q throws Interception

UP 14-11, 10 min left, FUMBLES on a sack, Philly gets a 42 yard TD drive

ON THE PLAY before Mullens missed a WIDE OPEN pass to the 50 to Kendrick Bourne…..

Down 14-18, throws a pick 6 next drive…..

Beathard: 14/19 138 7.3, 0/0 Sacked 1x, QBR 74

No change to Philly ratings; I felt this was all on Mullens





Ne 10 KC 26

KC was fortunate to cover the game. NE won the yardage 357 to 323. KC DID win ypp 5.9 to 4.8

The key to the game was KC +3 in T/o Margin (4 to 1)


NE did have some success on offense despite being down 2 OLINEMAN during game (RG Mason, and RT Eleunmonor left early in gm, Migraine)

Hoyer played poorly, and made bad mistakes, including taking a sack at the end of the 1st half when he thought the team still had a time out (cost the Pats 3 points).

Edelman dropped a pass that turned into a pick 6

THAT one play changed the score from a 19-10 final to a 26-10 final.



Mahomes (held in check); 236 yards 2TD/0 int, 8.1, QBR 60

Hoyer: 130 yards, 0 TD/1 INT, QBR 39

Stidham: 60 yards, 1 TD/2 INT, QBR 42



I made no changes to the teams Ratings







ATl 16/GB 30

Packers: BIGGEST HFA in NFL THIS Year? Slick grass surface

Defeated Det 42-21 only home game

And now won by 14 vs. Atl

GB: REALLY HURTING AT WR

Didn’t matter, Rodgers just threw to others, his backup Tight End had a huge game with 3 Tds.

Adams OUT – Worth 1 point (192 yards)

Lazard OUT- IR- Went for almost 150 yards last week (254 yards ytd)

Julio Jones ATL DID miss 2nd half, hamstring.

Atl showed ZERO sense of urgency, down 18 in 2nd half they had over a 7 min drive, often with the play clock hitting 5 or below!

Many expected 0-3 Atl to show a great sense of urgency but it was lacking completely.

HUGE money against GB here….line dropped from 7 midweek all the way down to 5……..last year we saw many “curious” line moves against the Packers at home similar to this….and for the most part the bettors have lost fading GB………

Aaron Rodger resurgence, what is causing it, Jordan Love?

I upgraded GB by .5, lowered Atl by .5




Pick Made: Oct 6 2020 8:17AM PST

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hitman

Browns/indy under 47.5
Arizona -6.5

Washington/Rams under 45.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Tierney

Survivor Pool Pick

Last year, Tierney went 161-94-1 on straight-up picks, beating the vast majority of experts on NFLPickWatch. A renowned sportswriter who's reported from seven Super Bowls, Tierney is an authority on the Survivor Pool format, which calls for picking one team to win each week but never using the same team twice.

In Week 1 -- when hundreds of thousands of Survivor players blew their entire season by picking the Colts, Eagles or 49ers -- Tierney rolled with the Ravens over the Browns. The result: Baltimore 38, Cleveland 6. Then Tierney advanced with the Steelers (Week 2), Colts (Week 3) and Rams (Week 4).

Restaurant buffets have been placed on hold — perhaps forever — amid the pandemic.

But there are enough tasty options in a buffet-like week for NFL survivor pools to help us temporarily forget about the real deal.

On Tuesday morning, all but three of the 15 games on tap carried spreads of at least six points. Three lines were double-digits, with another a half-point away.

It adds up to as many viable selections for survivalists in Week Five as you will find while grabbing your plate and silverware at a food line.

The extra-long list contains lots of appetizing choices. At the same time, few jump out as near certainties.

Hence, our meat-and-potatoes pick: Kansas City.

Why, you ask, not save the Chiefs for a week that is less buffet and more limited menu items?

After all, K.C. is perched at the top of the food chain in the NFL, one of four 4-0 teams. The Chiefs would be favored nowadays at a neutral site — think Super Bowl LV in Tampa — against anyone.

There will be no shortage of opportunities to claim them.

Yet, on closer inspection, many favorites this week are flawed. The only other one that appears semi-safe is Baltimore against Cincinnati, and the Ravens are off many survivalists boards (including mine).

The Chiefs are coming out of a Monday nighter, but short weeks are less of a challenge when the next opponent up is a rival. That is, if Chiefs-Raiders qualifies as a rival still. K.C. has won five in a row over Las Vegas, the last three by margins of 32, 18 and 31.

Vegas has allowed 30-plus points in three of four outings. It has four quarterback sacks, second fewest in the league.

After wrestling with Bill Belichick's feisty defense, Patrick Mahomes will relish the possibility of carving up Jon Gruden's.

Look at it this way: If you have followed the advice of this column, you remain alive in a pool that has thinned out considerably. Why not extend your stay with the best team at your side?

Besides, you won't be considering the Chiefs for awhile. Up next is unbeaten Buffalo on an even shorter week.

Week Five could hardly be more different than the previous one. The schedule offered few appealing choices, and one drew as an almost unprecedented level of support.

The Los Angeles Rams were embraced by a whopping 49.5 of players of pools traced by the website Survivor Grid and 44.4 percent by Run Your Pool.

L.A. was the overwhelming preference partly because Baltimore had been scooped up by survivalists in earlier weeks. Even so, the Ravens got the call by 21.3 percent, according to Run Your Pool, and 20.9 by Survivor Grid.

Each won, one narrowly, one comfortably — L.A. by eight over the New York Giants, Baltimore by 14 over Washington.

The only other team that attracted much interest was Seattle at around 10 percent.

The Seahawks disposed of Miami by eight points, completing a sweep by the primary teams on a satisfying weekend for most pool players.

Pick: Kansas City Chiefs over Las Vegas Raiders

[Yellow]

Essler 3* GOM

Redskins +9.5

[dawggy]

CARMINE BIANCO

• SUNDAY 5% NFL TOP PLAY
• Game: (459) Jacksonville Jaguars at (460) Houston Texans
  Date/Time: Oct 11 2020 1:00 PM EDT
  Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
  Play Rating: 5%
  Play: Houston Texans -6.5 (-110)
  
  NFL - Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans
  Quick Synopsis: To Follow
  The play is Houston Texans -6.5 (5% Good to -7.0

[dawggy]

BUSTER SPORTS


Game:(467) Cincinnati Bengals at (468) Baltimore Ravens
Date/Time: Oct 11 2020 1:00 PM EDT
Betting Line Provider: Consensus Line
Play Rating: 5%
Play: Cincinnati Bengals +13.5 (-110)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports

Nfl

6-San Fran-9
3-over-51-saints
3-over-54-falcons
2-bengals+13

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pete Prisco

Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) at Washington Football Team

This is the third trip east for the Rams, which is never easy. The good news is they play a Washington team that isn't very good and struggles on offense. Look for the Rams offense to get back on track after a so-so game last week and win this one easily.

Pick: Rams 28, Washington Football Team 10


Buffalo Bills (-1) at Tennessee Titans

This is a second straight road game for the Bills, which is always a challenge. The Titans are essentially coming off their bye after the COVID-19 postponement of their game last week. I think the Bills are rolling on offense and the Titans have defensive issues. That plays out as Josh Allen keeps it rolling.

Pick: Bills 30, Titans 27


Philadelphia Eagles (-7) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Eagles got their first victory on the road last week, but that was against a decimated 49ers team. This Steelers team didn't play last week, so they are rested. Look for the Steelers defense to limit Carson Wentz as the Steelers stay undefeated.

Pick: Steelers 31, Eagles 21


Arizona Cardinals (-7) at New York Jets

The Cardinals are playing consecutive road games on the on the opposite coast, which is tough to do. Unless it's against the Jets. The Jets are awful and Arizona lost a game they shouldn't have last week in Carolina. They get back on track here. The Jets stay winless.

Pick: Cardinals 31, Jets 20


Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-13.5)

The Chiefs are playing on a short week, but the offense didn't look good Monday night against the Patriots. It will here. The Raiders have defensive issues, so look for Patrick Mahomes to get back on track in a big way. The Raiders won't keep up.

Pick: Chiefs 36, Raiders 19


Jacksonville Jaguars at Houston Texans (-6)

The Texans fired coach Bill O'Brien this week, so does that give them some life? Romeo Crennel takes over as interim coach. The Jaguars are a mess on defense, so this looks like a game for Deshaun Watson to get it right. I think he lights up Jacksonville. Blowout.

Pick: Texans 36, Jaguars 24


Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens (-13)

This will be Joe Burrow against that attacking, blitzing defense of the Ravens. He's been good so far, but can he and his line hold up here? I don't think they can. Lamar Jackson will have a field day against the Bengals defense. This won't be pretty.

Pick: Ravens 37, Bengals 21


Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-2.5)

The Falcons season is on the line here after the 0-4 start. They are so banged up on defense that it's hard to imagine them beating anybody. But I think they play like their season is on the line and pull out a division game to get their first victory. The offense clicks.

Pick: Falcons 30, Panthers 23


Miami Dolphins (+8) at San Francisco 49ers

This is a long trip for Miami against a beat-up 49ers team. San Francisco might have Jimmy Garoppolo back in this one. That will be good enough to get a victory they have to have. Miami won't keep up with Ryan Fitzpatrick this week, but they will hang around.

Pick: 49ers 28, Dolphins 23


New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-9.5)

Is this the week the Cowboys get it going. They have the perfect tonic in a Giants team that hasn't won yet and is playing out on the road for a second straight week. The Cowboys offense has been good, but the defense is a disaster. I think they pick it up here after being called out all week. It's a big number, but I will lay it.

Pick: Cowboys 35, Giants 20


Indianapolis Colts (-1.5) at Cleveland Browns

This is one of the better games of the week. The Colts defense has played well so far, but this will be the toughest challenge they have faced. I think the Browns running game without Nick Chubb will be fine with Kareem Hunt. Even so, I think the Colts come into Cleveland and beat the Browns with their defense getting it done.

Pick: Colts 21, Browns 17


Denver Broncos (+11.5) at New England Patriots

The Patriots could have Cam Newton back here, which would be huge. The quarterbacks weren't good in the loss to the Chiefs without him. Denver won at the Jets last Thursday, but struggled to do so. They will struggle here as well — no matter who plays quarterback for the Patriots.

Pick: Patriots 30, Broncos 20


Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Seattle Seahawks

The Vikings salvaged their season for the time being by beating the Texans on the road. This Seattle offense is much better than that one and Russell Wilson will have big day against the Minnesota defense. But Kirk Cousins and Dalvin Cook will keep up against a bad Seattle defense. It will be tight.

Pick: Seahawks 31, Vikings 27

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hank Goldberg

CLEVELAND +1.5
INDIANAPOLIS @ CLEVELAND | 10/11 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:08 PM
The Browns are playing great under their new coach. They beat Dallas more soundly than the final score indicates. The Cowboys got their points late against a cheap, safe defense. Even though they're 3-1, the Browns are still kind of under the radar. Indy has a good defense but its top linebacker, Darius Leonard, is dealing with a groin injury.

PITTSBURGH -7
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:01 PM
Look at their defensive stats. The Steelers are No. 1 in so many categories. And their running game is strong; they can play keepaway. And, they're fresh after last week's game with Tennessee was postponed. Lay it.

5-3 IN LAST 8 PHI ATS PICKS | +166

HOUSTON -6
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:56 PM
The Jaguars had three key defensive players get hurt last week. Gardner Minshew throws for a lot of yards but he's up and down. I think Houston's defense will play well. And I bet the Texans had a party when Bill O'Brien got fired. Deshaun Watson will have a big game against that Jags defense and he's due for a big win. Lay the points.

9-5 IN LAST 14 JAC ATS PICKS | +354

3-0 IN LAST 3 HOU ATS PICKS | +300

CINCINNATI +13
CINCINNATI @ BALTIMORE | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 2:51 PM
Joe Burrow has three straight 300-yard games and he's playing with confidence. I think the Bengals can reasonably keep pace with Baltimore. The number is too high.

3-2 IN LAST 5 CIN ATS PICKS | +80

[Can'tPickAWinner]

R.J. White
SUPER STAT GEEK
YESTERDAY 2:11 PM

SEATTLE -7
MINNESOTA @ SEATTLE | 10/11 | 8:20 PM EDT
The Vikings got back on track last week, but it took playing a mess of a franchise that fired its coach/GM after the game to do so. When the dust settled, the Vikings came away with an eight-point win thanks largely to the success of the running game. But the Seahawks rank third in yards per rush allowed and are largely beatable through the air. Maybe that means Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson will have a big day, but I can't see the Minnesota offense keeping up with Russell Wilson and Co., who get to play a Vikings defense that ranks 30th in net yards per pass attempt. The line moved 2.5 points from the lookahead toward Minnesota, but I don't see sense in that.

35-10-3 IN LAST 48 MIN ATS PICKS | +2382

19-13-2 IN LAST 34 SEA ATS PICKS | +453

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Larry Hartstein

NEW ORLEANS -7.5
L.A. CHARGERS @ NEW ORLEANS | 10/12 | 8:15 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 10:30 PM
Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert is making his first primetime start and he won't have Austin Ekeler to support him. The elusive Ekeler made 17 catches and was averaging 5.1 yards per carry before getting hurt. The Saints are 37-14 ATS in their last 51 October games. In this matchup they should excel, in part because the Chargers can't cover running backs out of the backfield. Lay it.

7-1-1 IN LAST 9 LAC ATS PICKS | +591

23-17 IN LAST 40 NO ATS PICKS | +424

N.Y. GIANTS +9.5
N.Y. GIANTS @ DALLAS | 10/11 | 4:25 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:53 PM
The Giants are a covering machine on the road, and now they're getting 9.5 points facing one of the NFL's worst defenses. That should make New York's terrible offense look somewhat competent. Look for the G-Men to finally get in the end zone and keep this close.

10-4 IN LAST 14 NYG ATS PICKS | +579

PITTSBURGH -7
PHILADELPHIA @ PITTSBURGH | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 9:47 PM
The Eagles were fortunate to face Nick Mullens last week, but now they're on the road again versus the rested Steelers. Pittsburgh will force Carson Wentz into multiple key mistakes. Lay it.

5-3 IN LAST 8 PIT ATS PICKS | +175

HOUSTON -6
JACKSONVILLE @ HOUSTON | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 5:23 PM
It's tough to back the Texans after their no-show last week, but they should be energized by the coaching change, plus the chance to face Jacksonville's depleted defense. Look for Deshaun Watson to break out as Houston finally gets its first win and cover.

22-13-1 IN LAST 36 HOU ATS PICKS | +780

11-8-1 IN LAST 20 JAC ATS PICKS | +235

LAS VEGAS +13
LAS VEGAS @ KANSAS CITY | 10/11 | 1:00 PM EDT
YESTERDAY 3:34 PM
The Raiders hurt themselves with five fumbles the past two weeks. Fumbles are fluky and I'll bet against them coughing it up like that three straight weeks. Plus the injury news is positive for the Raiders, who have a potent offense. They can get us the backdoor cover even if K.C. goes up big.

8-1 IN LAST 9 KC ATS PICKS | +695

CHICAGO +5.5
TAMPA BAY @ CHICAGO | 10/08 | 8:20 PM EDT
TUE 10/6
This number is trending downward as the Bucs' injuries start to pile up. Nick Foles and the Bears' offense could not have looked worse last week, but I think they'll be solid against a Tampa Bay defense allowing opponents to complete 71 percent of their throws. Grab the points in what should be a close game.

5-1 IN LAST 6 CHI ATS PICKS | +390