Monday 10/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:52 PM

Tech Trends - Week 5
Bruce Marshall

Week 5 of the NFL season kicks off on Thursday, Oct. 8 and we've identified betting trends and angles for all 16 matchups. We also have "Tech Edge" leans on the side or total for each game too.

Monday, Oct. 12

L.A. CHARGERS at NEW ORLEANS

Saints just 2-5 last seven vs. line at Superdome.
New Orleans “over” first four in 2020 and 6 of 7 since late 2019.

Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:52 PM

477LA CHARGERS -478 NEW ORLEANS
NEW ORLEANS are 9-1 ATS (7.9 Units) vs. poor passing defenses - allowing 235 or more passing yards/game over the last 2 seasons.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:53 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans

Game 477-478
October 12, 2020 @ 8:15 pm

Dunkel Rating:
LA Chargers
124.481
New Orleans
134.947
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
New Orleans
by 10 1/2
50
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
New Orleans
by 7 1/2
52
Dunkel Pick:
New Orleans
(-7 1/2); Under

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:53 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Monday, October 12

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LA CHARGERS (1 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (2 - 2) - 10/12/2020, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in October games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 over the last 3 seasons.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 130-96 ATS (+24.4 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 17-6 ATS (+10.4 Units) in a road game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) in dome games since 1992.
LA CHARGERS are 51-30 ATS (+18.0 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:54 PM

NFL

Week 5

Trend Report

Monday, October 12

LA Chargers @ New Orleans
LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 5 games when playing New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of LA Chargers's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 5 games when playing LA Chargers
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 7 games

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-07-2020, 10:54 PM

NFL

Week 5

Chargers (1-3) @ New Orleans (2-2)
— Chargers lost last three games, all started by rookie QB Herbert.
— LA’s three losses were by 3-5-7 points.
— Three of four Charger games stayed under the total.
— Chargers are 8-7-2 ATS in last 17 games as a road underdog.

— Saints split their first four games, despite scoring 30+ points three times.
— All four New Orleans games went over the total.
— Saints allowed 34-37 points in their losses; 23-29 in their wins.
— New Orleans is 7-12 ATS in its last 19 games as a home favorite.

— Drew Brees was the Chargers’ QB from 2001-05.
— Saints won last three series games, by 1-7-5 points.
— Chargers won four of five games in the Superdome; they lost 31-24 in last visit here, in 2012.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 04:58 AM

Al Cimaglia: Woodbine Mohawk Park Early Pick 4 Analysis

October 12, 2020 | By Al Cimaglia
Woodbine Mohawk Park starts the week with an 11-race card. The popular 0.20 Early Pick 4 begins in Race 4 and it will be my focus.

Comments and selections below are based on a fast track.

Race 4

3-Goldinthebadlands (5/2)-Winner of 3 straight dispatched 4 from this field in last. MacDonald is back and he has taken pictures before. Will probably leave to get an up-close seat and is a major threat.
4-Allstar Seelster (7/2)-Got on the engine from the 9-hole and didn't look back versus $20k claimers in 151.2. Has won 7 of 22 here and does step up, but this barn can keep them good for a while.

Race 5

3-Cyndi Lynn (6-1)-Put in a nice effort from the 2nd tier and will look for an even stronger try from this post. Henry should provide an aggressive steer and fits well with this group. Will shoot against #1 as the ML chalk missed a start and tries Lasix.
4-Sombre (8-1)-Slow start hurt chances when bumped up to this level in last after 2 consecutive wins. If pace is honest chances for success go and JMac should have in striking range.
8-Memo (8-1)-Drops to a soft spot, McNair should be gunning out and that could work well. Has the gate speed to get the top and take control at a solid price.

Race 6

2-Joliette Hanover (7/2)-Has the speed to swallow these up but has broken stride in 2 of last 3. Should enjoy the company and if not over bet this filly is worth the risk.
3-Carnival Heart (8-1)-Winner in 4 of 7 lifetime starts makes her big track debut. Might be overlooked at the windows and will take a swing from this post.
4-Sweet Pink (8-1)-Skimmed the rail with a close-up seat and the pace was honest but did fade down the lane. Now tries Lasix for the 2nd time and Gallucci trainee should like the company at a square price.
8-Always Watching (9/2)-Fits well with this crew and the post helps the price. Has started from post 8 in 2 of last 3 and both times left and got on the engine. Can leave with enough speed to get the top and might be able to control the pace and not be caught.

Race 7

2-Assassins Creed (6-1)-Didn't leave quickly in last start from the rail but took control and went the back half in 55.3 to win easily. Steps up after breaking maiden and will use at a nice price as upswing could continue.
4-Lyons Liberty (5-1)-Yonkers invader makes 2nd start for new barn and last was a sharp effort. Competitive colt might be sitting on a big try. Will look to beat the camera-shy morning line chalk #1.
8-Windsun Azar (12-1)-Steps up to meet better after rolling the 2nd half in .55 with a last quarter of 26.4. Makes 5th lifetime start, maybe everything clicked when winning last and will string along in a race without a standout.

0.20 Early Pick 4

3,4/3,4,8/2,3,4,8/2,4,8
Total Bet=$14.40

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 05:00 AM

Jeff Siegel's Santa Anita Analysis/Wagering Strategies - 10/12/20

October 12, 2020
Jeff Siegel’s Santa Anita Analysis & Wagering Strategies
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Specifically designed for the rolling exotic player, Jeff Siegel’s “Daily Analysis and Wagering Strategies” isolates those horses that should be included in daily doubles, pick-3s, pick-4s, pick-5s, and the pick-6.
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The selections are posted at 6:00 a.m. and updated later in the morning to reflect late scratches and changes (approximately 10:30 a.m.).
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Grade Descriptions: Grade A=Highest degree of confidence; Grade B=Solid Play. Grade C=Least preferred or pass; Grade X=probable winner but likely at odds too short to play.

RACE 1: Post: 1:00 PT Grade: B+
Use: 1-Freedom Flyer; 4-May to My Heart

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Freedom Flyer ran considerably better than the line will show in her debut when a troubled fifth in a similar turf sprint for maiden juvenile fillies at Del Mar last month and seems sure to improve a bunch for a barn that has exceptional stats with second time starters. She’ll enjoy a good ground-saving trip from her rail post and with clear sailing through the lane should be able to produce a winning late bid. May to My Heart actually earned a better speed figure than ‘Flyer when finishing a close third sprinting on grass in late August at Del Mar and is another that is likely to benefit significantly from that bit of experience. Though we suspect ‘Flyer has more upside, this daughter of Liam’s Map probably is worth including on your rolling exotic ticket, at least as a back-up or a saver.
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RACE 2: Post: 1:36 PT Grade: B-
Use: 3-Tiz a Unicorn; 5-True Mischief

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Trainer R. Baltas has this race surrounded with the two main players in a five-runner affair. Tiz a Unicorn has the classic two-sprints-and-a-stretch-out pattern and seems very likely to improve significantly in her first two-turn outing. Her sprint form isn’t much, but she continues to train like she has some ability and a little will go a long way in this modest maiden claiming main track miler for fillies and mares. We’re projected her to draft into a cozy stalking position in this five-runner event and have every chance to kick home from the top of the lane to the wire. Her stable mate, True Mischief, is listed as the 4/5 morning line favorite and deservedly so. In the frame in her last pair including a career top effort when third under these conditions at Del Mar in August, the daughter of Into Mischief shows a healthy work tab since raced and projects to be on the lead or in a cozy stalking spot outside.
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RACE 3: Post: 2:07 PT Grade: C+
Use: 1-From the Get Go; 5-Superduty Justice

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: This maiden $32,000 juvenile sprint drew five entrants, two of which are stable mates in the L. Mendez barn. The better of the two we suspect is Superduty Justice, comfortably drawn outside and sporting a relatively short but solid work tab that includes a bullet half mile drill (4f, :48hg, fastest of 28) five days ago that we assume was accomplished in company with From the Get Go (same time). The latter was entered but scratched yesterday in a maiden $50,000 2-year-old sprint for this softer spot primarily to ensure the race filled. He’s trained okay, certainly well enough to be considered a contender, so in a race that we’ll otherwise pass we’ll include both in rolling exotic play and then press with Superduty Justice on top.
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RACE 4: Post: 2:40 PT Grade: B+
Single: 9-Astute

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Astute has trained like a very nice prospect for R. Mandella and appears well-spotted to win at first asking in this abbreviated turf sprint for juvenile fillies. She’s a daughter of Speightstown and therefore bred to excel on grass, and all of her recent drills indicate she’s plenty fit and ready. At 9/5 on the morning line and likely to go lower, she’s a logical rolling exotic single.
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RACE 5: Post: 3:11 PT Grade: B-
Use: 4-Caymans Cobra; 5-Colosi

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Caymans Cobra is re-equipped with blinkers and drops to his lowest level ever in this restricted (nw-3) $12,500 claiming main track miler for older horses. A two-time winner at Santa Anita, he’s likely to obtain his coveted pace-pressing/forcing trip so we’re expecting the R. Baltas-trained gelding to rebound with a top try. Colosi is unproven on the main track but removes blinkers and drops sharply in class, so it seems likely the City Zip gelding will be a major factor from off the pace. He’s reunited with “win rider” T. Baze and sports a healthy work pattern since raced. We’ll prefer ‘Cobra on top but use both in our rolling exotics.
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RACE 6: Post: 3:42 PT Grade: B
Use: 1-Tilted Towers; 2-Grit and Curiosity

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: The main contention is drawn inside in this second-level allowance turf sprint, with Grit and Curiosity exiting the best race and deserving of top billing. A respectable third in the Eddie D. S.-G3 last month and with recent speed figures that are better than par for this level, the P. Miller-trained gelding projects to settle into a second flight, stalking position and then have his chance when the pressure is turned on. Tough on any surface but never off the board in three career outings on grass, the son of Macho Uno is logically listed as the 9/5 morning line favorite. Tilted Towers, lightly-raced and improving with each outing, is moving up from an entry-level allowance grass dash while seeking his third straight win and should be close up throughout with a ground-saving trip from his rail draw. He’ll need to step forward again but could have it in him. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 7: Post: 4:13 PT Grade: B- (Leg 1 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 3-Carpe Victoriam; 4-Race Home

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Carpe Victoriam drops to a realistic level, gets a break in the weights, and returns to his preferred surface (dirt) in this $32,000 claiming sprint restricted to 3-year-olds. A repeat of his strong runner-up try at Churchill Downs (out of which he was claimed for $40,000 by J. Sadler) should be sufficient to handle this assignment. Race Home is another class dropper likely to improve in this league. Not quite as fast on pure numbers as our top pick but turning back to a sprint (his best trip), the M. Ortiz-trained gelding should settle into a second flight, stalking spot and then have dead aim when it counts. Preference on top goes to Carpe Victoriam but both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 2 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 7: Post 4:29 PT Grade: B
Use: 2-Anna Lisa; 7-Marilyn’s Smile

Forecast: Anna Lisa ran very well over this course and distance two races back when winding up a game second after a three-wide pace pressing trip and then went to Los Alamitos for an easy mixed-breed, confidence building score last month. Always genuine and consistent (first or second in nine of 16 starts), she figures to fire another big shot today. Marilyn’s Smile is listed as the 7/5 morning line favorite and will be hard to deny if she returns as well as she left. Away for 11 months, the daughter of Smiling Tiger hails from the T. McCanna barn (excellent stats with layoff runners), shows a steady series of works, and has finished first or second in four of five career outings over the Golden Gate Fields lawn. She’ll be rolling late. Both should be included in rolling exotic play.
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RACE 8: Post: 4:44 PT Grade: B- (Leg 3 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Use: 5-Afleeting Life; 8-Invictatatus

(View Video Analysis)

Forecast: Invictatatus drops from straight maidens into a below-average maiden $50,000 turf miler and though beaten as the favorite sprinting on dirt last time out should produce his best effort under these conditions against this modest group. The son of Strong Mandate continues to impress in the a.m. and projects to be on or near the lead throughout in a field lacking in early speed (and late speed, too for that matter). Afleeting Life has been away for more than a year and returns in a logical spot with blinkers off and a series of strong, healthy workouts at San Luis Rey Downs for a low profile outfit. If ready, he absolutely can act with these, is the one to fear most and a “must use” in rolling exotic play.
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GOLDEN GATE FIELDS (Leg 4 of the Golden Hour Pick-4)
Race 8: Post 5:00 PT Grade: B
Single: 6-Billtown Banner

Forecast: Low-level ($5,000) maiden claimers meet over a mile in the finale. Billtown Banner appears to have much in his favor and can be considered as a possible single for those with limited budgets. He drops to the bottom rung for the first time, stretches out after a series of sprints that earned decent speed figures, and hails from a high-percentage outfit. Yes, he’s unproven around two-turn but against this group there’s no reason he shouldn’t handle the extra distance. Let’s make him a win play and rolling exotic single at or near his morning line of 3-1.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 05:41 AM

Brian Nadeau's Daily Picks

Finger Lakes - Race #1

#7 Smooth Tales	Pace presser did well to draw an outside attack post in a race without a lot of early zip, stepped up and was just a close 2nd at the level, and should offer a hint of value as well; look out.
#2 Loveboy Lou	Dicey ML favorite was last seen in May 2019 running up the track in a 50k starter at Bel, so the fact he returns for 10k at FL tells you there are some major issues here; tread very lightly.
#3 Roll With My Posse	Deep closer with like getting out of the ALW ranks, where he's been a bit overmatched, but he's slow on figures, and his lack of early speed is a major issue; figures to run out of room late.
Race Summary	That 4-1 ML on the pick is mighty inviting, as he really should be the second-choice to the 2, and with all the potential question marks that one brings, 'Tales becomes even more intriguing, so play him aggressively to win and place, and make sure to use his number to kick off the early Pk4 as well, since he looks like he's getting all the best of it here.

Finger Lakes - Race #4

#8 Steal My Heart	Stalker really impressed trying winners when 3rd last time, as she improved her figure in a big way, and there's still upside here off eight starts, at a nice price too; upset special.
#6 Chaysenbryn	Stiff ML favorite will be bet hard for Jeremiah off the Spa 4th with a big figure, but that was in the slop, and the rest of her main track form hasn't been quite as strong; trying to beat.
#3 A Dab Will Do	Lightly raced miss was 4th, 1 3/4 lengths behind the pick last time, so why she's 7-2 on the ML is anyone's guess, though she does have plenty of room for improvement; exotics appeal.
Race Summary	The price will be right on the 8, as they may view her last as a bit of a fluke, but there's no reason to think she can't build off it, so give her a look in all the slots, and use her number to end the early Pk4, and kick off the Pk5 as well, since a win would add plenty of value to both sequences.

Finger Lakes - Race #7

#4 Ouch That Hurt	Class riser has aired in both starts off the long break, meets a crew there for the taking, and gives the impression she's just getting started; imposing.
#7 Lookin Kinda Crazy	Pace presser has been in good form and now goes to Conway, who is 33% with his newcomers, so if she improves, she'll be a threat; the main danger.
#6 Hannah Dances	Tricky read can win this if she runs back to the big figure win two-back, though her surrounding runs haven't been quite as strong; mixed signals here.
Race Summary	That 3-1 ML isn't happening on the 4, but even 9-5 or so seems fair on a gal who is in raging form and looks to be going places, so make an aggressive win and place bet if the tote allows, though you'll get some built-in value by singling her in the Pk5, and late Pk4 as well, since this looks like another spot for an easy score, class rise and all.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 05:42 AM

Brian W. Spencer's Daily Picks

Mountaineer - Race #1

#5 Desirade	Finisher has been a good fit with the local company and steps into a very reasonable spot to try winners for the first time.
#3 Flowzano	Looks like the one to beat while moving back around two turns, but she doesn't always fire and might be an unappealing price given her realistic chances of winning this.
#6 Out Say No	Stretchout player owns enough pace to be in the mix from the start, and though she's suspect late, she might find herself on the lead and could get brave.
Race Summary	Desirade goes third off the break after posting the maiden win last time out, and the price should be fair right back.

Mountaineer - Race #2

#6 Whiskey Moment	Gets back on the lawn after the modest main track try off the long layoff, and he has plenty of upside while moving back to the turf. The one to beat.
#5 Tulwar	He has never tried the turf, but he brings a pretty decent effort every now and then, and sire Machen does fine with turf horses.
#8 No Picture Charlie	Won't be the kind of price he was when last trying a similar spot, but outside of the top choice this is a very soft group, so he won't need a huge race to land a piece.
Race Summary	Whiskey Moment can improve with the comeback race under his belt, and his back turf form should be enough to handle these.

Mountaineer - Race #8

#4 Treetop Flyer	Worth a look at a price in this dash, as he has won going short before and might be fast enough to hang with the chalk. His only local try produced a quick win.
#7 Cuttin Edge Tech	No doubt the one to beat, as he's capable some freakishly big efforts at this kind of trip, but the price will be unappealing, and the top choice offers just enough intrigue
#6 Keller's Gold	Will try to keep up in this dash, but he might be best of the rest here. He's coming out of some pretty decent spots and owns occasional running lines that would be competitive.
Race Summary	Cuttin Edge Tech is clearly the one to beat at a short price -- he thrives at this trip and almost always fires. Treetop Flyer produced a nice win in his only local try, and he might be just fast enough to be in the frame with the chalk at the end of this abbreviated sprint.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 05:43 AM

Jerry Shottenkirk's Daily Picks

Gulfstream Park West - Race #6

#2 Khozy My Boy	Ran on for second in two of his last four and is ready to move out of this condition; broke his maiden in maiden is long overdue.
#1 Nicholas Rose	Pressed then faded in his first vs. winners; takes a class drop and can be a player from the outset.
#5 Ricki Ticki Taffi	Set the pace vs. much better and could be difficult to run down; drops to his lowest level after being claimed from Joseph stable by the Sano barn.
Race Summary	Khozy My Boy will get a sharp pace in front of him, can benefit from saving ground and can make a solid move at the leaders.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #7

#9 Solid as a Rock	Moves out of N3L after an easy win and can be a factor throughout; the outside post could help and she'll probably has a healthy price.
#3 Baccarat Fashion	Takes a huge drop in class and can make a strong move; use caution with this much of a drop.
#8 Beast of Wildwood	Has the speed to battle from the outset and has a chance to wear down some of the other pacesetters.
Race Summary	Solid as a Rock has shown good speed at every level she's seen and will get a good run from the outside of fillies.

Gulfstream Park West - Race #8

#2 Vinnie Van Go	Has been claiming in four straight, and for good reason; he has shown speed in good sprints and will be difficult to beat in his first start for the Hess stable.
#3 Mozo Bello	Was claimed out of a win by Gracida and has been haltered in three of his last four; responded in his return to the main track last time and fits with these.
#6 Cajun Brother	Won his first two races and then tired in his last two; has seen some outstanding competition and will improve here.
Race Summary	Vinnie Van Go can mix it up with any at this level and can wear down his rivals; can get back to the winner's circle.

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 08:25 AM

Cappers Access

(Mon) NFL Saints -7-
(Mon) MLB Dodgers -150

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 08:27 AM

Paul Leiner...ALCS Pick 10/12

Like the Rays to go up 2-0 today

100* Rays -130

**Can'tPickAWinner** · 10-12-2020, 11:33 AM

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Finger Lakes

Finger Lakes - Race 3	EXACTA * TRIFECTA * SUPERFECTA (10 Cent Minimum) * DAILY DOUBLE (Races 3-4) * PICK 3 (50 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5) * PICK 6 WITH CARRYOVER (20 Cent Minimum: Races 3-4-5-6-7-8)
Claiming $5,000 • 1 Mile 70 yards • Dirt • Ages 3 and up • CR: 60 • Purse: $10,000 • Post: 2:04P
FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 121 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 12 ALLOWED 2 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $5,000.

Contenders				Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds	Race Type: Lone Stalker. LADY BOUNTIFUL is the Lone Stalker of the race, but has been deemed a non-contender due to a low Platinum Figure or other overall low ratings. * KEY ANGLES * PETALITE: Horse racing off a layoff of 90+ days and horse has ru n well in the past in its first and/or second starts after a long layoff. Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse has the highest average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Speed Figure at the distance/surface. Horse ranks in the top three in average Equibase Class Rating at the distance/surface.
1	PETALITE	8/5	5/2
2	GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY	2/1	4/1

P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
3	HOPE I CAN	3	6/1	Front-runner	46	45	46.5	40.9	31.4
1	PETALITE	1	8/5	Front-runner	76	64	45.4	64.0	62.0
2	GUNBOAT DIPLOMACY	2	2/1	Front-runner	68	54	44.6	57.4	51.4
8	LADY BOUNTIFUL	8	8/1	Stalker	63	31	28.4	36.6	26.1
5	BELLA INVASION	5	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	71	61	45.2	9.6	1.1
7	LA RUBIA	7	9/2	Alternator/Non-contender	43	36	38.6	28.2	19.2
6	TWICE PROVEN	6	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	56	50	36.8	36.8	25.3
4	LUCKY DILLY	4	20/1	Alternator/Non-contender	57	35	33.4	25.0	11.0