Monday 10/12/20 Free Plays / Trends / Betting Info / Etc

[Can'tPickAWinner]

F.A.S.T. Sheets Free Race for Presque Isle Downs

Presque Isle Downs - Race 6	$2 WPS / $2 Exacta / Trifecta (min .50 cent) / Superfecta (min .10 cent) $2 Daily Double / Pick 3 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8) Pick 4 (min .50 cent) (Races 6-7-8-9)
Maiden Special • 1 Mile 70 yards • All-Weather • Ages 3 and up • CR: 75 • Purse: $36,000 • Post: 6:50P
(PLUS UP TO 30% PABF) FOR MAIDENS, THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 124 LBS.

Contenders					Race Analysis
P#	Horse	Morn Line	Accept Odds		Race Type: Lone Front-runner. RIGHTEOUSNESS is the Lone Front-runner of the race. * KEY ANGLES * MOONSHINE NOW: Horse has the highest TrackMaster Power Rating. RIGHTEOUSNESS: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. ALL REVVED U P: Horse has a TrackMaster "+" designation or an "L" designation. ANDRETTI: Horse ranks in the top three in TrackMaster Power Rating. BOLD ADVENTURE: Today is a route and this is the horse's third start after a layoff, after two sprint prep races.
8	MOONSHINE NOW	3/1	5/1
5	RIGHTEOUSNESS	5/2	5/1
6	ALL REVVED UP	5/1	8/1
7	ANDRETTI	7/2	9/1
4	BOLD ADVENTURE	6/1	10/1

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P#	Horse (In Running Style Order)	Post	Morn Line	Running Style	Good Class	Good Speed	Early Figure	Finish Figure	Platinum Figure
5	RIGHTEOUSNESS	5	5/2	Alternator/Front-runner	65	70	81.7	62.9	57.9
4	BOLD ADVENTURE	4	6/1	Alternator/Stalker	78	64	93.9	57.8	49.8
8	MOONSHINE NOW	8	3/1	Alternator/Stalker	81	75	85.3	71.1	67.1
6	ALL REVVED UP	6	5/1	Alternator/Stalker	77	73	64.6	67.5	60.0
7	ANDRETTI	7	7/2	Trailer	75	71	67.3	67.3	60.3
3	MUTAFAANY	3	8/1	Trailer	77	75	32.1	34.8	23.3
2	HESITATION BLUES	2	10/1	Alternator/Non-contender	75	72	82.5	5.7	0.0
1	DO YOUR BEST	1	15/1	Alternator/Non-contender	0	0	0.0	0.0	0.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Grants Pass

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 2 - Maiden Optional Claiming - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $5900 Class Rating: 51

FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $20,000.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 HER ROYAL DUCHESS 2/1
# 6 COACH'S VALENTINE 8/1
# 1 SHE'S ALL TIGER 8/1

HER ROYAL DUCHESS is the top bet in this race. Will most likely compete admirably in the early pace battle which bodes well with this group. She has been moving quite well lately while recording very strong Equibase Speed Figures. This filly has to be carefully examined just off the earnings per start in dirt sprint events alone. COACH'S VALENTINE - Has been racing in the most competitive company of the group lately. In fine fettle, and coming right back again today. SHE'S ALL TIGER - The handler wheels this one back almost immediately to race again.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Delaware Park - Race #2 - Post: 1:45pm - Claiming - 8.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 74

Rating:

#4 DAH PHILLY (ML=7/2)


DAH PHILLY - This racer could be tough today, especially since Spanabel rode in the last race and now should be plenty familiar with this one. This filly is in good form. Finished second on Sep 12th. That 60 fig this filly garnered in her last race tells me she's a chief player this time.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 CHA CHA HEELS (ML=8/5), #7 LUNA (ML=2/1), #2 DON'T FIGHT (ML=6/1),

CHA CHA HEELS - The finish position of tenth in the last affair shows me that this horse may be going out of form. This less than sharp equine hasn't been on the track since Aug 15th. Not even any drills. This horse doesn't have a winner's demeanor. Frequently finishes near the winner. LUNA - This mare garnered a rating in her last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race. DON'T FIGHT - This racer hasn't shown much in the last couple events. When checking today's class rating, she will have to garner a better speed rating than last time out to vie in this dirt route.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	Have to go with #4 DAH PHILLY on the win end if we get at least 1/1 odds
EXACTA WAGERS:	Skip
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	None
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Indiana Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

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Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight - 5.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 47

FOR REGISTERED INDIANA BREDS SIRED BY REGISTERED INDIANA STALLIONS MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD. WEIGHT, 118 LBS.

RECOMMENDED CHOICES
	# 5 SECRET EXPRESS 20/1
# 8 BLUESKIESATNIGHT 6/5
# 10 PORKETTA 15/1

I've got to go with SECRET EXPRESS especially at 20/1. Cannot be ignored - Brown is a strong conditioner with the babies, winning 50 of his races. Look for a competitive pace improvement from this equine who enters with second time Lasix today. This group gives this trainer an edge with a solid two year old. BLUESKIESATNIGHT - This conditioner is solid with starters in baby races. There is a competitive chance that this entry's late pace will improve on Lasix. Must be considered given the sire numbers TrackMaster shows on this juvenile. PORKETTA - Wagerers may find value with this sire's offspring, who have a combined +102 return on investment. This horse ought to be wagered on at the expected big odds.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Mountaineer Park - Race #5 - Post: 8:40pm - Claiming - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $7,500 Class Rating: 76

Rating:

#2 JONNY'S CHOICE (ML=5/1)
#5 AQUAMARINE (ML=10/1)
#1 MACHINIST (ML=6/1)


JONNY'S CHOICE - Williams rode this racer for the first time in the last race and comes right back in this race. AQUAMARINE - I like to play this angle, a racer coming back off a good race within the last thirty days. Like the way this gelding's finish positions keep getting better. That's a sure sign of improving form. Recent speed figs show powerful pattern of improvement. MACHINIST - Possibly a peak effort for this gelding today. Been getting closer and the end with each recent start. When this jockey and trainer team up you have to take a look. Gonzalez and Bell have been fabulous together. Have to make this gelding a strong challenger; he comes off a solid race on September 15th.

Vulnerable Contenders: #9 STAND ALONE DENNIS (ML=9/5), #3 YES DARLIN (ML=9/2), #7 ARTAVIA (ML=6/1),

STAND ALONE DENNIS - 9/5 is not priced right for any thoroughbred in a sprint of 6 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a sprint affair recently. YES DARLIN - Hard to put your cash on the win end of any animal that finishes second and third as frequently as this entrant does. ARTAVIA - Awfully difficult to wager on this mount when he hasn't been showing any gumption of late. Tough to like the downward moving flow (71/68/59) of speed figs. Won't be easy for this thoroughbred to beat this field off of that last speed figure. Doubtful to improve enough to run a figure anywhere near today's Equibase class figure, so put him on the possibly overvalued contestants list.

STRAIGHT WAGERS:	#2 JONNY'S CHOICE is going to be the play if we are getting 5/2 or better
EXACTA WAGERS:	2 with [1,5]
TRIFECTA WAGERS:	Box [1,2,5] Total Cost: $6
SUPERFECTA WAGERS:	None

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[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Belmont Park

10/12/20, BEL, Race 1, 12.50 ET
10/12/20,BEL,1,1 1/16M [Turf] 1:38:03 MAIDEN SPECIAL WEIGHT. Purse $52,000. FOR MAIDENS, FILLIES TWO YEARS OLD FOALED IN NEW YORK STATE AND APPROVED BY THE NEW YORK STATE-BRED REGISTRY. Weight, 119 lbs. (Non-starters For A Claiming Price Of $40,000 Or Less In The Last 3 Starts Preferred). (If the Stewards consider it inadvisable to run this race on the turf course, this race will be run at One Mile and One Sixteenth on the Main Track.) (Rail at 9 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Big Time Lady	4/1	Saez L	Rodriguez Rudy R.	TSFEL	218	32.11	1.11/$1
097.9091	9	Cara's Dreamer	7/2	Davis D	Friedman Mitchell E.		228	32.02	1.09/$1
097.2435	1	U Should B Dancing	8/1	Marquez C	Kelly Patrick J.	WC	228	32.02	1.09/$1
095.8533	5	Frost Me	4/1	Ortiz J L	Kimmel John C.	J	228	32.02	1.09/$1
095.5219	2	Boomkittybyebye	5/1	Lezcano J	Englehart Jeremiah C.		228	32.02	1.09/$1
095.5140	7	Gray Lollipops(b+)	15/1	Rosario J	Jones Eduardo E.		218	32.11	1.11/$1
095.2095	4	Pop the Bubbly	8/1	Carmouche K	Nevin Michelle		228	32.02	1.09/$1
094.7410	3	Masu	10/1	Alvarado J	Cannizzo David A.		218	32.11	1.11/$1
094.0233	6	Wish for Magic	12/1	Rider TBA	Brown Bruce R.		228	32.02	1.09/$1
094.0028	8	Saluki	15/1	Cardenas L	Schettino Domenick L.		228	32.02	1.09/$1
090.6969	11	Ten Plagues	15/1	Cancel E	Schosberg Richard E.		228	32.02	1.09/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 27.27, ROI 0.88/$1
. . . .
100.0000 10 Big Time Lady
[Category]Condition
[AllTurf]LastRacePurseHigherThanToday
If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	10	Big Time Lady	4/1	Saez L	Rodriguez Rudy R.	JSFEL	119	41.18	1.31/$1
098.1991	5	Frost Me	4/1	Ortiz J L	Kimmel John C.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
097.7751	9	Cara's Dreamer	7/2	Davis D	Friedman Mitchell E.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
096.7801	2	Boomkittybyebye	5/1	Lezcano J	Englehart Jeremiah C.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
096.1981	1	U Should B Dancing	8/1	Marquez C	Kelly Patrick J.	C	119	41.18	1.31/$1
095.7825	4	Pop the Bubbly	8/1	Carmouche K	Nevin Michelle	T	119	41.18	1.31/$1
094.8571	3	Masu	10/1	Alvarado J	Cannizzo David A.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
094.1801	6	Wish for Magic	12/1	Rider TBA	Brown Bruce R.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
093.4062	7	Gray Lollipops(b+)	15/1	Rosario J	Jones Eduardo E.	W	119	41.18	1.31/$1
091.8446	8	Saluki	15/1	Cardenas L	Schettino Domenick L.		119	41.18	1.31/$1
091.7936	11	Ten Plagues	15/1	Cancel E	Schosberg Richard E.		119	41.18	1.31/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 34.25, ROI 0.95/$1
. . . .
100.0000 10 Big Time Lady
[Category]Condition
[DirtMdnMClm]DoesNotCarryHighWeight with
[DirtMdnMClm]RacePurseNotGreaterThan$75K

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapped by Top Horse Analytics at Monmouth Park

10/12/20, MTH, Race 6, 3.09 ET
10/12/20,MTH,6,5 1/2F [Turf] 1:01:01 CLAIMING. Purse $21,000. (PLUS UP TO 40% NJB) FOR THREE YEAR OLDS OR FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON THREE RACES. Three Year Olds, 119 lbs.; Older, 124 lbs. Non-winners Of A Race Since August 12 Allowed 3 lbs. Claiming Price $12,500, For Each $1,000 To $10,500 1 lb. (Races Where Entered For $10,000 Or Less Not Considered In Allowances). (Rail at 24 feet).
. . . .
Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	1	Nicki de Nephew	4/1	Ferrer J C	Farro Patricia	J	31	32.26	3.39/$1
098.3074	9	Another Softball	9/2	Lopez P	Demasi Kathleen A.		70	34.29	1.94/$1
097.9626	3	Mr. Edgar	2/1	Peterson F	Delgado Jorge	TS	125	31.20	1.50/$1
095.3883	2	Miami Crockett	7/2	Diaz. Jr. H R	Klesaris Steve	FEL	50	26.00	2.21/$1
093.6351	8	Dizzy Sight(b+)	10/1	Gonzalez J L	Nunn Douglas		125	31.20	1.50/$1
093.0353	7	Highwaytwentyseven	12/1	Juarez N	Breen Kelly J.	W	50	26.00	2.21/$1
091.5840	5	Pascal Chant	6/1	Hernandez C J	McBurney Patrick B.		8	62.50	10.69/$1
090.7581	4	Evan's Nice Now	30/1	Maragh R R	Toscano. Jr. John T.		5	20.00	14.96/$1
089.4286	6	Next Cowboy Up	30/1	Flores V J	Helmetag Robert P.	C	125	31.20	1.50/$1

Top rated horse with "Turf Surface Not fm/hd" - WPC 21.43, ROI 0.46/$1
. . . .
100.0000 1 Nicki de Nephew
[Category]Condition
[TurfNot_MdnMClm]*2ndHorse98RatingAndTopHorse100Rating
*Scratches may change this condition If Race Is Off Turf

Best in race Flags - (J)ockey (T)rainer (S)peed (F)inish (E)arnings (W)orkouts (L)ead (C)loser
After scratches, a horse P# must be the top rated horse for the WPC and ROI to be valid.

100.0000	3	Mr. Edgar	2/1	Peterson F	Delgado Jorge	TSF	143	41.26	1.15/$1
099.1967	2	Miami Crockett	7/2	Diaz. Jr. H R	Klesaris Steve	EL	143	41.26	1.15/$1
098.6429	1	Nicki de Nephew	4/1	Ferrer J C	Farro Patricia	J	143	41.26	1.15/$1
098.0993	7	Highwaytwentyseven	12/1	Juarez N	Breen Kelly J.		143	41.26	1.15/$1
096.8328	9	Another Softball	9/2	Lopez P	Demasi Kathleen A.	W	143	41.26	1.15/$1
096.5700	8	Dizzy Sight(b+)	10/1	Gonzalez J L	Nunn Douglas		143	41.26	1.15/$1
095.8477	4	Evan's Nice Now	30/1	Maragh R R	Toscano. Jr. John T.		143	41.26	1.15/$1
095.8294	5	Pascal Chant	6/1	Hernandez C J	McBurney Patrick B.		143	41.26	1.15/$1
094.6372	6	Next Cowboy Up	30/1	Flores V J	Helmetag Robert P.	C	37	59.46	2.28/$1

Top rated horse with "Dirt Surface Not fst/wf" - WPC 27.14, ROI 0.78/$1
. . . .
100.0000 3 Mr. Edgar
[Category]Condition
[DirtNot_MdnMClm]LastRacePurseHigherThanToday

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB public betting, line movement October 12
Patrick Everson

Cody Bellinger and the Dodgers look to keep their perfect postseason intact against the Braves in Game 1 of the NLCS on Monday night. Caesars sportsbooks have Los Angeles a -138 favorite.

MLB betting odds are on the board for a Monday double dip, courtesy of the NLCS and ALCS. The Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers square off in Game 1 of the NLCS in Arlington, Texas, preceded by Game 2 of the ALCS between the Houston Astros and Tampa Bay Rays in San Diego.

Multiple oddsmakers provided insights on MLB opening lines and early movement, sharp money and public betting for Monday’s games. Covers will update this action report with MLB sharp picks vs. public bets and line movement through game time.

MLB line movement

Los Angeles finished this shortened regular season with the best record in the majors, so it’s no surprise to see the Dodgers in the NLCS. L.A. is a perfect 5-0 in the postseason thus far, coming off a 3-0 sweep of the San Diego Padres in the NLDS. Likewise, Atlanta is 5-0, sweeping the Miami Marlins in the divisional round.

Caesars sportsbooks opened the Dodgers -145 Game 1 favorites, with Atlanta +135, and by late Sunday evening, the moneyline was at Dodgers -138/Braves +128. The total opened at 8 and stuck there through Sunday for Monday’s 8:08 p.m. ET first pitch.

Tampa Bay claimed a 2-1 victory over Houston in Game 1 of the ALCS on Sunday. PointsBet USA opened Game 2 at Rays -135/Astros +115, and there was no movement through Sunday night for Monday’s 4:07 p.m. ET start. PointsBet opened the total at 8 and momentarily ticked to 7.5 before going back to 8.

MLB public betting

The Dodgers are always a public team, and that’s showing up in early Covers Consensus play, with 64 percent of picks on Los Angeles through Sunday night. The total was getting two-way play, with 52 percent of picks on the Over.

Astros-Rays Game 2 is also getting two-way traction, with 52 percent of early Covers Consensus picks on Tampa Bay. On the total, 56 percent of picks through Sunday night were on the Over.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

963HOUSTON -964 TAMPA BAY
TAMPA BAY is 77-56 SU (15.4 Units) in home games against right-handed starters in the last 3 seasons.

965ATLANTA -966 LA DODGERS
LA DODGERS are 37-23 SU (12.5 Units) vs. teams whose hitters strike out 7 or more times/game in the current season.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Long Sheet

Monday, October 12

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HOUSTON (34 - 32) at TAMPA BAY (45 - 22) - 4:07 PM
TYLER GLASNOW (R) vs. CHARLIE MORTON (R)
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

TYLER GLASNOW vs. TAMPA BAY since 1997
No recent starts.

CHARLIE MORTON vs. HOUSTON since 1997
MORTON is 5-6 when starting against HOUSTON with an ERA of 5.92 and a WHIP of 1.604.
His team's record is 6-6 (+0.2 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 4-8. (-4.8 units)

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ATLANTA (40 - 25) vs. LA DODGERS (48 - 17) - 8:08 PM
MAX FRIED (L) vs. CLAYTON KERSHAW (L)
Top Trends for this game.
ATLANTA is 139-93 (+24.1 Units) against the money line in all games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 62-41 (+20.7 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
FRIED is 12-1 (+9.3 Units) against the money line in all games this season. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 26-7 (+15.4 Units) against the money line in night games over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 22-6 (+13.5 Units) against the money line after a win over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
FRIED is 19-3 (+15.2 Units) against the money line when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons. (Team's Record)
LA DODGERS are 2-9 (-9.9 Units) against the money line in road games when playing on Monday over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

MAX FRIED vs. LA DODGERS since 1997
FRIED is 0-2 when starting against LA DODGERS with an ERA of 6.55 and a WHIP of 1.909.
His team's record is 1-2 (-1.0 units) in these starts. The UNDER is 2-1. (+1.0 units)

CLAYTON KERSHAW vs. ATLANTA since 1997
KERSHAW is 7-0 when starting against ATLANTA with an ERA of 1.49 and a WHIP of 0.900.
His team's record is 12-2 (+8.6 units) in these starts. The OVER is 7-6. (+0.8 units)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday, October 12

Best-of-7 series

Houston vs Tampa Bay (1-0) (@ San Diego)
McCullers is 0-3, 4.98 in his last five starts.
— Houston is 6-6 in his starts, 2-5 away from home.
— Under is 5-2 in his last seven starts.
— McCullers is 1-0, 3.25 in 12 playoff games (5 starts).
— He is 1-2, 3.79 in three career starts vs Tampa Bay.

— Astros won five of their seven playoff games.
— Houston is in playoffs for 4th year in a row; they won World Series in 2017, lost World Series last season.
— Over is 3-4 in their playoff games.
— Astros are 14-25 on road this season.

Former Astro Morton is 3-0, 4.20 in his last three starts.
— Tampa Bay is 6-4 in his starts, 2-2 away from home.
— Under is 6-1 in his last seven starts.
— Morton is 5-2, 3.50 in ten playoff games (9 starts).
— He is 4-6, 6.28 in 11 career starts vs Houston.

— Tampa Bay won six of its eight playoff games.
— Rays are in playoffs for second year in a row.
— Tampa Bay is 26-13 away from home this season.
— Under is 5-3 in their playoff games.

— Rays lost ALDS 3-2 to Houston last season.

National League
Atlanta vs Los Angeles (@ Arlington)
Fried is 0-0, 3.19 in his last three starts.
— Atlanta is 12-1 in his starts, 5-0 away from home.
— Over is 4-1 in his last five starts.
— Fried is 0-0, 4.67 in 10 playoff games (2 starts).
— He is 0-2, 6.55 in three career starts vs Atlanta.

— Braves threw four shutouts in winning first five playoff games.
— Atlanta is in playoffs for the third year in a row.
— Braves are 21-14 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-1 in their playoff games.

Buehler is 0-0, 3.66 in his last five starts.
— Dodgers are 9-1 in his starts, winning last eight.
— Under is 5-1 in his last six starts.
— Buehler is 1-1, 2.84 in eight career playoff starts.
— He is 2-0, 2.92 in two starts vs Atlanta.

— Dodgers are 48-17 this year, winning last nine games.
— LA outscored foes 30-11 in their five playoff wins.
— Dodgers are in playoffs for the 8th year in a row.
— LA is 27-8 away from home this season.
— Under is 4-2 in their last six games.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Monday, October 12

Trend Report

Houston @ Tampa Bay
Houston
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Houston

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers
Atlanta
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 games
LA Dodgers
LA Dodgers is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
LA Dodgers is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Atlanta

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB
Dunkel

Monday, October 12

Houston @ Tampa Bay

Game 963-964
October 12, 2020 @ 4:07 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Houston
(McCullers) 16.469
Tampa Bay
(Morton) 15.387
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
Houston
by 1
9
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
Tampa Bay
-135
8
Dunkel Pick:
Houston
(+115); Over

Atlanta @ LA Dodgers

Game 965-966
October 12, 2020 @ 8:08 pm

Dunkel Rating:
Atlanta
(Fried) 16.781
LA Dodgers
(Buehler) 19.190
Dunkel Team:
Dunkel Line:
Dunkel Total:
LA Dodgers
by 2 1/2
7
Vegas Team:
Vegas Line:
Vegas Total:
LA Dodgers
-145
8
Dunkel Pick:
LA Dodgers
(-145); Under

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Chargers vs. Saints Week 5 Odds, Preview
Matt Blunt

For the second consecutive week, the Los Angeles Chargers find themselves out on the road in NFC South country, and if they've got another chance to knock off a future HOF quarterback again, hopefully, they'll know how to finish this time.

The Chargers had QB Tom Brady and the Buccaneers down big late in that 1st half last week before blunders started the spiral of momentum against them, and Tampa took full advantage in the final 30 minutes. Mistakes like that can happen for younger teams like the Chargers are, but the Saints have not looked invincible by any means this year.

Yet, the problem for Chargers fans/backers has to be that any time we get Drew Brees on MNF these days, he's usually out there breaking some long-standing QB record. I'm not sure there are any within reach this time, but the Saints have been a reliable team to back in recent MNF games as some memorable moments for Brees are behind them.

Betting Resources

Week 5 Matchup: AFC vs. NFC
Venue: Mercedes-Benz Superdome
Location: New Orleans, LA
Date: Monday, Oct. 12, 2020
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN

Rookie quarterback Justin Herbert makes his fourth straight start as the Chargers take on the Saints. (AP)

Line Movements

But Saints fans have to fear that all of the great moments Brees has had in his career are currently behind him, as there are serious questions about his ability to be that guy to lead this team on another deep run this year.

New Orleans was hoping to have wide receiver Michael Thomas available to help give Brees a more reliable option to work with on offense but the below "Tweet" from Adam Schefter sums up the priorities for the All-Pro.

With or without Thomas, the Saints still have trouble stopping teams too – Saints give up an average of 30.8 points per game – and if Brees is amid a severe decline, how long can you expect to have him keep winning games 35-30?

New Orleans might not have to worry so much with this specific opponent about those deficiencies, but they'll still be around regardless. They are a big part of the question this week regarding whether the Saints will cover this number.

Spread: New Orleans -7
Money-Line: New Orleans -310, L.A. Chargers +260
Total: 50

2020 Betting Stats

L.A. Chargers

Overall: 1-3 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Road: 1-1 SU, 2-0 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Offense PPG: 20.8 (Rank 27)
Defense PPG: 23.8 (Rank 11)

New Orleans

Overall: 2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS, 4-0 O/U
Home: 1-1 SU, 1-1 ATS, 2-0 O/U
Offense PPG: 30.8 (Rank T-5)
Defense PPG: 30.8 (Rank 25)

Handicapping the Total

This game is not one I was particularly fond of for the entire week this week as there are cases to be made each way. In terms of the total, Saints at home in prime time appearances have lit up the scoreboard in the past, and we just saw another 40+, the future HOF QB put up 5 TD's on this Chargers defense last week. But Brady's been trying to re-teach himself to look deep then short this year in his progressions when all Brees tends to look and throw short.

Alternatively, can you trust this Chargers offense to put up 30+ point efforts in consecutive weeks after failing to score more than 20 in their first three games of the season? Yes, the Saints defense is bad and can help LA along in that regard, but it's still rookie QB Justin Herbert's second career road start, in a tough travel spot (whether they went to and from LA between games or not), and off a game where they coughed up what would have been a huge win.

The Chargers being completely flat and/or overmatched early is also a possible outcome to thing about here, and asking them to pull their weight for a total in the ‘50s may be a bit much.

I'm more inclined to think that the Chargers offense is likely to come back down to earth a bit, as well as the Saints defense at least “looking” better against an inferior opponent. I do also think this Chargers defense is more likely to bounce back off that rough outing and look more like the team that held the Bengals, Chiefs, and Panthers to 12, 23, and 21 points, respectively, as they did in their first three games.

I believe that Brees has hit that career cliff where talent tends to nosedive, so asking him to keep putting up 30 points a game on long, dink-and-dunk drives just isn't going to keep working out. New Orleans is 6-2 O/U in their last eight appearances on MNF, but they are also on a 4-11 O/U run against a losing team. It's the last run that I side with for this one.

Head-to-Head History

Oct. 2, 2016 - New Orleans 35 at L.A. Chargers 34, Saints +3.5, Over 54
Oct. 7, 2012 - New Orleans 31 vs. San Diego 24, Saints -3.5, Over 52.5

Handicapping the Side

Believing the end is here for Brees also means that I want no part of him laying anything that much more than a FG based on the matchup, and this is one of those games where it's between fading the Saints or passing on the side.

Even if I'm completely wrong about Brees being smack dab right in the middle of the end, and he still goes out there and lights things up, New Orleans still has a defense that gives up 30 points per game. Even if they do look better, you're always asking them to potentially keep the back door shut as well from an ATS standpoint late in the game. Even if they declared they wanted too, I'm not sure the Saints defense could stop a garbage time TD drive against more times than not, and that's a situation that bettors still may have to sweat out after watching Brees and the Saints offense be at their best.

Anything less than that (far more likely), from Brees and company, and this spread is far too lofty a price on the Saints for me even to consider.

Yet, I'm not thrilled to be having the Chargers in this game either, as back-to-back non-conference road spots tend to be hard for a young team to come away with back-to-back ATS wins. And if it's the Chargers who have a dud of a game, even an average Brees and company win this game by double digits comfortably.

The Chargers are on a 33-15-4 ATS run as an organization when listed as a road underdog, but they are also 0-3-1 ATS in their last four MNF appearances. Again, cases to be made for both sides, and it's just safer to pass.

Key Injuries

L.A. Chargers

QB Tyrod Taylor: Lung - Questionable
WR Mike Williams: Hamstring - Questionable
G Trai Turner: Groin - Questionable
T Storm Norton: Knee - Questionable
T Bryan Bulaga: Back - Questionable
RB Austin Ekeler: Hamstring - Out

New Orleans

WR Michael Thomas: Discipline - Out
T Ryan Ramczyk: Concussion - Questionable
T Andrus Peat: Ankle - Questionable
CB Marshon Lattimore: Hamstring - Questionable
CB Janoris Jenkins: Shoulder - Questionable
DE Marcus Davenport: Elbow - Questionable
TE Jared Cook: Ankle - Questionable
LB Chase Hansen: Hip - Out

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rk	Sports Services	Free Sports Picks
1.	NSA(The Legend)	MLB – Rays over 8
2.	Gameday Network	MLB – Dodgers over 8
3.	VegasSI.com	MLB – Astros over 8
4.	Vegas Line Crushers	MLB – Dodgers under 8
5.	Sports Action 365	MLB – Astros over 8
6.	Point Spread Report	MLB – Dodgers -135
7.	Lou Panelli	MLB – Astros +115
8.	Gerry “Big Cat” Andino	MLB – Dodgers -135
9.	VegasSI.com Platinum Info Club	MLB – Astros over 8
10.	William E. Stockton	MLB – Dodgers under 8
11.	Vincent Pioli	MLB – Astros +115
12.	Steve “Scoop” Kendall	MLB – Dodgers -135
13.	SCORE	MLB – Astros over 8
14.	East Coast Line Movers	MLB – Dodgers under 8
15.	Tony Campone	MLB – Astros +115
16.	Chicago Sports Group	MLB – Dodgers -135
17.	Hollywood Sportsline	MLB – Astros over 8
18.	VIP Action	MLB – Dodgers under 8
19.	South Beach Sports	MLB – Astros +115
20.	Las Vegas Sports Commission	MLB – Dodgers -135
21.	NY Players Club	MLB – Astros over 8
22.	Fred Callahan	MLB – Dodgers under 8
23.	Las Vegas Private CEO Club	MLB – Astros over 8
24.	Michigan Sports	MLB – Astros +115
25.	National Consensus Report	MLB – Dodgers -135